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The global ocean is losing oxygen with warming. Observations and Earth system model projections suggest, however, that this global ocean deoxygenation does not equate to a simple and systematic expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Previous studies have focused on the Pacific Ocean; they showed that the outer OMZ deoxygenates and expands as oxygen supply by advective transport weakens, the OMZ core oxygenates and contracts due to a shift in the composition of the source waters supplied by slow mixing, and in between these two regimes, oxygen is redistributed with little effect on OMZ volume. Here, we examine the OMZ response to warming in the Indian Ocean using an ensemble of Earth system model high-emissions scenario experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. We find a similar expansion-redistribution-contraction response, but show that the unique ocean circulation pathways of the Indian Ocean leads to far more prominent OMZ contraction and redistribution regimes than in the Pacific Ocean. As a result, only the outermost OMZ layers (oxygen > 180 μmol/kg) expand. The Indian Ocean experiences a broad oxygenation in the southwest driven by a reduction in waters supplied by the Indonesian Throughflow in favor of high-oxygen waters supplied from the South Indian Gyre. Models also project a strong localized deoxygenation in the northern Arabian Sea due to the rapid warming and shoaling of marginal sea outflows (Red Sea and Persian Gulf). We extend the existing conceptual framework used to explain the Pacific OMZ response to interpret the response in the Indian Ocean.

Significant progress has been made regarding the spatial distribution of sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 within the global coastal ocean. The physical and biochemical drivers that govern these CO2 sources and sinks as well as their variability on seasonal timescales are, however, poorly understood. In this study we aim at filling this knowledge gap and assess to what extend the CO2 dynamics in the coastal ocean is controlled by the adjacent open ocean or conversely is dominated by continental influence. We use the global ocean biophysical model MOM6-COBALT, carefully evaluated against a well-established coastal data-product (Laruelle et al., 2017), to quantify the individual influences of the oceanic transport, thermal changes, freshwater influence, and biological activity on the annual mean spatial distribution of CO2 sources and sinks as well as their seasonal variability for the coastal ocean worldwide. Our analysis reveals complex spatial and temporal dynamics, depending on the coastal region and/or the time scale investigated (seasonal or annual) resulting from interactions and compensations between the different processes. We identify five typical behaviors of coastal systems (i.e., coastal regions under biological drawdown, vertical transport, imprint of land, dominated by intracoastal alongshore currents, and weak CO2 sources and sinks coastal regions) and propose a processed-based typology of the coastal ocean based on the processes that control the spatial and seasonal air-sea CO2 dynamics.

El Nino years stand out in the global average temperature time series as record-warm years. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics leading to warming in the climatologically cold equatorial Eastern Pacific are well understood, but cannot be the cause for the very strong signal in global average temperarture. The latter must be caused by an increase in subcloud Moist Static Energy (MSE) in the domain of highest subcloud MSE where atmospheric deep convection couples the surface, boundary layer and free troposphere. Transformation of the data from geographical space to sea-surface temperature (SST) percentiles eliminates the large spatial see-saws in all variables arising from the geographic reorganization of the general circulation, and brings to light the mechanism: While in the Eastern Pacific region oceanic heat uptake is reduced (corresponding to a heat flux out of the ocean), the deep convective domain sees a heat flux from the atmosphere into the ocean. We show that this heat flux into the ocean at the high end of SSTs - the opposite of the canonical perspective of a warming due to a heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere - is mechanically forced: surface wind speeds are lower in regions of active deep convection than in ENSO neutral (and La Nina) years. The resulting reduced evaporation leads to the increase in subcloud MSE that causes the global temperature signal.

This contribution presents a new view of the global carbon cycle which accounts for the land-to-ocean transport of carbon through inland waters, estuaries, tidal wetlands and continental shelf waters—the ‘land-to-ocean aquatic continuum’ (LOAC). We highlight how biogeochemical and ecological processes from land-to-ocean have been perturbed by human interventions, including atmospheric composition change, climate change and land-use change. The extend to which these anthropogenic perturbations have altered regional and global CO2 budgets and trends along the LOAC are also presented and the knowledge gaps that are key to reduce uncertainties in future assessments of LOAC fluxes are identified. Finally, broader implications regarding the quantification of the terrestrial and open ocean sinks of anthropogenic carbon are briefly discussed

Accurate national carbon budget assessments allow nations to evaluate their progress in cutting carbon emissions and therefore be aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement goals. To support the initiative of The REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2), we built a synthesis of the Australasia (Australia and New Zealand) terrestrial carbon budget for 2010-2019 based on top-down and bottom-up approaches. Major carbon flux components in the bottom-up budget (e.g., net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) were simulated by CABLE model, Biome-BGC model and Cewn simulations. In addition, this budget include carbon flux components from the land-ocean aquatic continuum, such as inland waters, estuaries, blue carbon ecosystems, and continental shelves and carbon fluxes embodied in trade (export and import) of crops, woods, livestock and fossil fuel. We reconciled Australia and New Zealand bottom-up budgets separately with fluxes derived from regional and global OCO-2, GOSAT flux inversions, as well as fluxes obtained from in-situ measurement only (CarbonWatchNZ). We found that annual mean budgets for Australia agree relatively well (within the uncertainty range) with regional and global top-down GOSAT and OCO-2 flux estimates. New Zealand's annual bottom-up carbon budget also agrees relatively well with fluxes derived from CarbonWatchNZ inversion and GOSAT but disagrees with global flux estimates from OCO-2.

The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Major advances have improved our understanding of the coastal air-sea exchanges of these three gasses since the first phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP in 2013), but a comprehensive view that integrates the three gasses at the global scale is still lacking. In this second phase (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is ~60% larger in models (-0.72 vs. -0.44 PgC/yr, 1998-2018, coastal ocean area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model-product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid- and high-latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2-e /yr in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2-e /yr in model median) and of CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2-e /yr in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the net radiative effect of coastal \co uptake (35-58% in CO2-equivalents). Data products and models need improvement to better resolve the spatio-temporal variability and long term trends in CO2, N2O and CH4 in the global coastal ocean.

The temporal variability of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and the underlying processes driving this variability are poorly understood in the coastal ocean. In this study, we tailor an existing method that quantifies the effects of thermal changes, biological activity, ocean circulation and freshwater fluxes to examine seasonal pCO2 changes in highly variable coastal environments. We first use the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6) and biogeochemical module Carbon Ocean Biogeochemistry And Lower Trophics version 2 (COBALTv2) at a half-degree resolution to simulate coastal CO2 dynamics and evaluate them against pCO2 from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas database (SOCAT) and from the continuous coastal pCO2 product generated from SOCAT by a two-step neuronal network interpolation method (coastal Self-Organizing Map Feed-Forward neural Network SOM-FFN, Laruelle et al., 2017). The MOM6-COBALT model reproduces the observed spatiotemporal variability not only in pCO2 but also in sea surface temperature, salinity and nutrients in most coastal environments, except in a few specific regions such as marginal seas. Based on this evaluation, we identify coastal regions of “high” and “medium” agreement between model and coastal SOM-FFN where the drivers of coastal pCO2 seasonal changes can be examined with reasonable confidence. Second, we apply our decomposition method in three contrasted coastal regions: an eastern (US East Coast) and a western (the Californian Current) boundary current and a polar coastal region (the Norwegian Basin). Results show that differences in pCO2 seasonality in the three regions are controlled by the balance between ocean circulation and biological and thermal changes. Circulation controls the pCO2 seasonality in the Californian Current; biological activity controls pCO2 in the Norwegian Basin; and the interplay between biological processes and thermal and circulation changes is key on the US East Coast. The refined approach presented here allows the attribution of pCO2 changes with small residual biases in the coastal ocean, allowing for future work on the mechanisms controlling coastal air–sea CO2 exchanges and how they are likely to be affected by future changes in sea surface temperature, hydrodynamics and biological dynamics.

The global ocean is losing oxygen due to warming, which is expected to significantly increase production of nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas, and decrease the habitat of many megafauna. In the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, however, there is an observed oxygen gain that cannot be accounted for by observed warming. We show that the amplification of the hydrological cycle, a response to climate change which results in a ‘salty-get-saltier, fresh-get-fresher’ sea surface salinity pattern, influences deoxygenation patterns in an Earth System Model, and can explain the observed oxygenation. In the Atlantic Ocean, this hydrological cycle amplification leads to enhanced ventilation and oxygenation of ‘salty-get-saltier’ subtropical water masses, while reducing ventilation and oxygen content in ‘fresh-get-fresher’ water masses formed at higher latitudes. The oxygenation of subtropical Atlantic waters is thus shown to be a regional consequence of climate change (through surface salinity changes) even as the global consequence of climate change (directly through warming) is deoxygenation.

Marine heat waves (MHWs) are a recurrent phenomenon in the northeast Pacific that impact regional ecosystems and are expected to intensify in the future. Prior work showed that these events, including the 2014–2015 “warm blob”, are associated with widespread surface nutrient declines in the subpolar Alaska Gyre (AG) and the North Pacific Transition Zone (NPTZ) but reduced chlorophyll concentrations in the NPTZ only. Here we explain the contrast between these two regions using a global ocean biogeochemical model (MOM6-COBALT) with Argo float and ship-based observations to investigate how MHWs influence marine productivity. We find that phytoplankton and zooplankton production respond relatively modestly to MHWs in both regions. However, differences in the response to seasonal iron and nitrogen limitation between large (>10 µm) and small (<10 µm) phytoplankton size classes explain the differences in ecosystem response to MHWs across the two biomes. During MHWs, reduced nutrient supply limits large phytoplankton production in the NPTZ (−13 % annually) but has a limited impact on the already iron-limited large phytoplankton population in the AG (−2 %). In contrast, MHWs yield a springtime increase in small phytoplankton in both regions due to shallower mixed layers and weaker light limitation. These modest changes are in apparent contradiction with prior estimates suggesting a collapse in net community production during the warm blob. We show, however, that 70 % of the decline in net community production previously calculated from nitrate Argo data can be attributed to artifacts in the method and that only 30 % can be attributed to interannual variability, in line with our model-based results. Although modest, the primary production anomalies associated with MHWs modify the phytoplankton size distribution, resulting in a significant shift towards small phytoplankton production (i.e., lower large-to-small-phytoplankton ratio) and reduced secondary and export production, especially in the NPTZ.

A historical dataset of river chemistry and discharge is presented for 140 monitoring sites along the United States East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the West Coast from 1950 to 2020. The dataset, referred to here as River Chemistry for the U.S. Coast (RC4USCoast), is mostly derived from the Water Quality Database of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), but also includes river discharge from the USGS’s Surface-Water Monthly Statistics for the Nation and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. RC4USCoast provides monthly time series as well as long-term averaged monthly climatological patterns for twenty variables including alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentration. It is mainly intended as a data product for regional ocean biogeochemical models and carbon chemistry studies in the U.S. coastal regions. Here we present the method to derive RC4USCoast and briefly describe the river's carbonate chemistry patterns.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 11.1 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1 (40.8 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of -0.6 GtC yr-1 (i.e. total estimated sources too low or sinks too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022, suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.1 % (0 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.3 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial level. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2022a; Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, 2018a, 2016, 2015b, 2015a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Agricultural intensification in India has increased nitrogen pollution, leading to water quality impairments. The fate of reactive nitrogen applied to the land is largely unknown, however. Long-term records of riverine nitrogen fluxes are nonexistent and drivers of variability remain unexamined, limiting the development of nitrogen management strategies. Here, we leverage dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and discharge data to characterize the seasonal, annual, and regional variability of DIN fluxes and their drivers for seven major river basins from 1981 to 2014. We find large seasonal and interannual variability in nitrogen runoff, with 68% to 94% of DIN fluxes occurring in June through October and with the coefficient of variation across years ranging from 44% to 93% for individual basins. This variability is primarily explained by variability in precipitation, with year- and basin-specific annual precipitation explaining 52% of the combined regional and interannual variability. We find little correlation with rising fertilizer application rates in five of the seven basins, implying that agricultural intensification has thus far primarily impacted groundwater and atmospheric emissions rather than riverine runoff. These findings suggest that riverine nitrogen runoff in India is highly sensitive to projected future increases in precipitation and intensification of the seasonal monsoon, while the impact of projected continued land use intensification is highly uncertain.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gases inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries’ climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021, suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.9 % (4.1 % to 5.7 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra- tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, 2018a, 2016, 2015b, 2015a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

The low-latitude ocean regions spanning 30°S-30°N are thought to account for more than 50% of the global export production. However, previous analyses of paleo-proxy records and modeling studies strongly suggest contradictory evidence as to whether low latitude nutrient cycling and export production is locally or non-locally controlled. Here we address this question through the new application of observational (PACIFICA) and modeling (NEMO-PISCES) tools and show that low latitude recycling of nutrients within the thermocline overturning structures is largely responsible for sustaining low latitude export production (60%) for the mean state, with only second-order controls from the injection of new (preformed) nutrients from the Southern (16%) and northern (9%) oceans. The implications for understanding controls on long-term changes under sustained anthropogenic climate perturbations is investigated using CMIP6 Earth system models under idealized 4xCO2 forcing, where significant reductions in low-latitude export production and net primary production over 30°S-30°N are investigated.

The Southern Ocean plays a major role in both the global oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and its interannual variations. The size and origin of the interannual variability in the Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes is debated. Observation-based estimates suggest a large variability (+/- 0.11 PgC/yr) while Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models (GOBMs) simulate almost no variability. Studying the air-sea fluxes of O2 can provide independent information that help resolve this data-model inconsistency. Oceanic O2 is influenced by the same physical and biogeochemical processes as CO2, but unlike CO2, its variability is not masked by a large anthropogenic flux. Here, we used 26 years (1994-2019) of monthly O2 fluxes from 9 GOBMs. These model outputs were compared to air-sea O2 fluxes inferred from an atmospheric inversion of precisely quantified changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 levels. The 26-year time series of air-sea O2 fluxes from all GOBMs and the atmospheric inversion exhibited similar temporal variations. This could be linked to the Southern Annular Mode and its influence on air-sea heat flux forcing that induced large-scale changes in observed wintertime Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). However, the amplitude of the interannual variability in air-sea O2 fluxes was two times higher in the atmospheric inversion than in GOBMs. It possible that this was induced by the general overestimation of the mean wintertime MLD by the GOBM and subsurface vertical gradients in oxygen saturation lower than observed. Implications of these results for the variability in air-sea fluxes of CO2 will be discussed.

The oxygen content of the ocean interior largely results from a balance between respiration and advective ventilation, with only a small contribution from mixing processes. However, two important characteristics, which are key to future oxygen distribution in the ocean, primarily depend on the strength of ocean mixing. The first relates to the oxygen minimum zones (OMZ), which are wide O2-deficient mesopelagic layers inhospitable to most marine macro-fauna. We illustrate how mixing intensity controls the volume of all major OMZs. The second relates to one of the most worrying responses of the ocean to climate change: deoxygenation, including in OMZs. Several observational and model studies show that reduction in oxygen mixing plays a dominant role in global deoxygenation. Uncertainties in the representation of mixing in Earth system models and difficulties to measure mixing rates in the field hinder our ability to project the future evolution of OMZs.

International audience; Carbon storage by the ocean and by the land is usually quantified separately, and does not fully take into account the land-to-ocean transport of carbon through inland waters, estuaries, tidal wetlands and continental shelf waters—the `land-to-ocean aquatic continuum' (LOAC). Here we assess LOAC carbon cycling before the industrial period and perturbed by direct human interventions, including climate change. In our view of the global carbon cycle, the traditional `long-range loop', which carries carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the open ocean through rivers, is reinforced by two `short-range loops' that carry carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters and from tidal wetlands to the open ocean. Using a mass-balance approach, we find that the pre-industrial uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide by terrestrial ecosystems transferred to the ocean and outgassed back to the atmosphere amounts to 0.65 ± 0.30 petagrams of carbon per year (±2 sigma). Humans have accelerated the cycling of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems, inland waters and the atmosphere, and decreased the uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide from tidal wetlands and submerged vegetation. Ignoring these changing LOAC carbon fluxes results in an overestimation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems by 0.6 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year, and an underestimation of sedimentary and oceanic carbon storage. We identify knowledge gaps that are key to reduce uncertainties in future assessments of LOAC fluxes.

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system1. During recent decades, ocean heat uptake has been quantified by using hydrographic temperature measurements and data from the Argo float program, which expanded its coverage after 20072,3. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainties resulting from sparse coverage, especially before 20074,5. Here we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2)—levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases—as a whole-ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.33 ± 0.20 × 1022 joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.83 ± 0.11 watts per square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result—which relies on high-precision O2 measurements dating back to 19916—suggests that ocean warming is at the high end of previous estimates, with implications for policy-relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases7 and the thermal component of sea-level rise8. An independent estimate based on atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements suggests that global oceans absorbed about 0.83 watts per square metre of heat over the past three decades—at the high end of previous estimates.

The temporal variability of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and the underlying processes driving this variability are poorly understood in the coastal ocean. In this study, we tailor an existing method that quantifies the effects of thermal changes, biological activity, ocean circulation and fresh water fluxes to examine seasonal pCO2 changes in highly-variable coastal environments. We first use the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6) and biogeochemical module Carbon Ocean Biogeochemistry And Lower Trophics version 2 (COBALTv2) at a half degree resolution to simulate the coastal CO2 dynamics and evaluate it against pCO2 from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas database (SOCAT) and from the continuous coastal pCO2 product generated from SOCAT by a two-step neuronal network interpolation method (coastal-SOM-FFN, Laruelle et al., 2017). The MOM6-COBALT model not only reproduces the observed spatio-temporal variability in pCO2 but also in sea surface temperature, salinity, nutrients, in most coastal environments except in a few specific regions such as marginal seas. Based on this evaluation, we identify coastal regions of ‘high’ and ‘medium’ model skill where the drivers of coastal pCO2 seasonal changes can be examined with reasonable confidence. Second, we apply our decomposition method in three contrasted coastal regions: an Eastern (East coast of the U.S) and a Western (the Californian Current) boundary current and a polar coastal region (the Norwegian Basin). Results show that differences in pCO2 seasonality in the three regions are controlled by the balance between ocean circulation, biological and thermal changes. Circulation controls the pCO2 seasonality in the Californian Current, biological activity controls pCO2 in the Norwegian Basin, while the interplay between biology, thermal and circulation changes is key in the East coast of the U.S. The refined approach presented here allows the attribution of pCO2 changes with small residual biases in the coastal ocean, allowing future work on the mechanisms controlling coastal air-sea CO2 exchanges and how they are likely to be affected by future changes in sea surface temperature, hydrodynamics and biological dynamics.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 126(8), (2021): e2021JC017510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017510.

International audience; The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) field campaign is to develop a predictive understanding of the export, fate, and carbon cycle impacts of global ocean net primary production. To accomplish this goal, observations of export flux pathways, plankton community composition, food web processes, and optical, physical, and biogeochemical (BGC) properties are needed over a range of ecosystem states. Here we introduce the first EXPORTS field deployment to Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific Ocean during summer of 2018, providing context for other papers in this special collection. The experiment was conducted with two ships: a Process Ship, focused on ecological rates, BGC fluxes, temporal changes in food web, and BGC and optical properties, that followed an instrumented Lagrangian float; and a Survey Ship that sampled BGC and optical properties in spatial patterns around the Process Ship. An array of autonomous underwater assets provided measurements over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and partnering programs and remote sensing observations provided additional observational context. The oceanographic setting was typical of late-summer conditions at Ocean Station Papa: a shallow mixed layer, strong vertical and weak horizontal gradients in hydrographic properties, sluggish sub-inertial currents, elevated macronutrient concentrations and low phytoplankton abundances. Although nutrient concentrations were consistent with previous observations, mixed layer chlorophyll was lower than typically observed, resulting in a deeper euphotic zone. Analyses of surface layer temperature and salinity found three distinct surface water types, allowing for diagnosis of whether observed changes were spatial or temporal. The 2018 EXPORTS field deployment is among the most comprehensive biological pump studies ever conducted. A second deployment to the North Atlantic Ocean occurred in spring 2021, which will be followed by focused work on data synthesis and modeling using the entire EXPORTS data set.

Global ocean oxygen loss - deoxygenation - is projected to persist in the future. Previous generations of Earth system models (ESMs) have, however, failed to provide a consistent picture of how deo...

The spatio-temporal variability and the underlying drivers of the carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange at the air-water interface (FCO2) of the global coastal ocean are still poorly understood and their quantification remains highly uncertain. Here, we present an analysis of the spatial and seasonal variability of FCO2 using a high-resolution (0.25 degree) monthly climatology (1998-2015 period) for coastal sea surface partial pressure in CO2 (pCO2), globally.Overall, a clear latitudinal pattern emerges from our analysis regarding sources/sinks distribution of atmospheric CO2 and we find that in most regions, annual mean CO2 flux densities are comparable in sign and magnitude to those of the adjacent open ocean except for river dominated systems. Globally, coastal regions act as a CO2 sink with a more intense uptake occurring in summer because of the disproportionate influence of high latitude coastal seas in the Northern Hemisphere. The majority of the coastal seasonal FCO2 variations stems from the air-sea pCO2 gradient, although changes in wind speed and sea-ice cover can also be significant regionally. To investigate further the drivers of the spatio-seasonal variability, our observation-based pCO2 climatology is used in conjunction with global ocean biogeochemistry model MOM6-COBALT. The model outputs allow us to quantify the respective contributions of thermal effects, biology, and non-thermal physical processes (circulation and freshwater inputs) to seasonal variations in coastal pCO2. Generally, biological activity is the dominant driver of the pCO2 seasonal variability in temperate and high latitudes while thermal and non-thermal physical processes dominate in low latitudes.

By means of a variety of international observing and modeling efforts, the ocean carbon community has developed numerous estimates for ocean carbon uptake. In this presentation, we report on the synthesis effort we are undertaking under the auspices of an Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Working Group. Our initial goal for this working group is to determine the best estimate for the net and anthropogenic carbon sink from 1994-2007 based on three approaches that independently use interior data, surface data or hindcast ocean models. Combining two approaches that use interior ocean data to estimate anthropogenic carbon, Fant = -2.40+-0.21 PgC/yr (2 sigma uncertainty). Estimates for the net, or contemporary, ocean carbon uptake come from 6 products that interpolate surface ocean pCO2 data to global coverage: Fnet = -1.58+-0.19 PgC/yr for 1994-2007. Uncertain closure terms for naturally-outgassed river-derived carbon and non-steady state natural carbon fluxes in the open ocean are then added to derive Fant from surface observation-based Fnet. Ocean models do not include river-derived carbon, but do include non-steady state natural carbon fluxes, and thus a third estimate for Fant is derived. The combined best-estimate is Fant = -2.35+-0.53 PgC/yr. We detail the uncertainties and assumptions made in deriving these estimates, and suggest paths forward to further reduce uncertainties.

El Niño events weaken the strong natural oceanic source of CO2 in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, partly offsetting the simultaneous release of CO2 from the terrestrial biosphere during these events. Yet, uncertainties in the magnitude of this ocean response and how it will respond to the projected increase in extreme El Niño in the future (Cai et al., 2014) limit our understanding of the global carbon cycle and its sensitivity to climate. Here, we examine the mechanisms controlling the air-sea CO2 flux response to El Niño events and how it will evolve in the future, using multidecadal ocean pCO2 observations in conjunction with CMIP6 Earth system models (ESMs) and a state‐of‐the‐art ocean biogeochemical model. We show that the magnitude, spatial extent, and duration of the anomalous ocean CO2 drawdown increased with El Niño intensity in the historical period. However, this relationship reverses in the CMIP6 projections under the high emission scenario. ESMs project more intense El Niño events, but weaker CO2 flux anomalies in the future. This unexpected response is controlled by two factors: a stronger compensation between thermally-driven outgassing and non-thermal drawdown (56% of the signal); and less pronounced wind anomalies limiting the impact of El Niño on air-sea CO2 exchanges (26% of the signal). El Niños should no longer reinforce the net global oceanic sink in the future, but have a near-neutral effect or even release CO2 to the atmosphere, reinforcing the concurrent release of CO2 from the terrestrial biosphere.

A major concern is that global de-oxygenation will expand Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) and favor coastal dead zones (DZs) where already low oxygen levels threaten ecosystems and adjacent coastal economies. The northern Indian ocean is home to both intense OMZs and DZs, and is surrounded by many kilometers of biodiverse and commercially valuable coastline. Exchanges between OMZs and shelf waters that contribute to coastal DZs are subject to the strong monsoonal seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). There is, however, no observational constraints on how these exchanges influence coastal DZs at the scale of the entire northern Indian Ocean.In this work, we examine the timing and processes that favor low-oxygen concentrations along the coasts of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) using multi-decadal time series of oxygen profiles (Bio-Argo, World Ocean Database and repeat hydrography) combined with a suite of satellite data. Seasonally, we show that coastal oxygen is lowest during winter/spring in the BoB and summer/fall in the AS, closely following the seasonal propagation of coastal waves and wind-driven upwelling. Interannually, observations indicate that positive IODs increase coastal O2 in summer/fall in the AS, partly offsetting the seasonal signal; a result in agreement with prior modeling work (Vallivattathillam et al 2017). Observations reveal, however, that positive IODs favor low coastal O2 conditions and increase the risk of coastal DZs year-round in the BoB and in winter/spring in the AS, whereas negative IODs favor low O2 in summer/fall in the AS.

During El Niño, the upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) slows, leading to a warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, and the tropical troposphere warms. Only SSTs in regions with atmospheric deep convection, typically the warmest SSTs, affect the temperature of the tropical free troposphere. The warming of the EEP, which is home to the coldest tropical SSTs and does not experience atmospheric convection, therefore appears insufficient to explain the observed warming of the troposphere. Here, we examine the physical processes that lead to the warming of the warmest SSTs using both a global atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model and the ECMWF reanalysis. We show that SSTs in convecting regions do not warm as a result of ocean dynamics (upwelling), but as a result of a net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean following a weakening of surface winds and decrease in evaporation. This increased ocean heat uptake in convecting regions opposes the decrease in ocean heat uptake in the rest of the tropics during El Nino. This process may be important for linking surface temperature to ocean heat uptake changes, and the contribution of internal variability in the form of ENSO and IPO to the forced response observed over the historical record.

Fluxes of major bioelements associated with sinking particles were quantified in late summer 2018 as part of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) field campaign near Ocean Station Papa in the subarctic northeast Pacific. The thorium-234 method was used in conjunction with size-fractionated (1–5, 5–51, and >51 μm) concentrations of particulate nitrogen (PN), total particulate phosphorus (TPP), biogenic silica (bSi), and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) collected using large volume filtration via in situ pumps. We build upon recent work quantifying POC fluxes during EXPORTS. Similar remineralization length scales were observed for both POC and PN across all particle size classes from depths of 50–500 m. Unlike bSi and PIC, the soft tissue–associated POC, PN, and TPP fluxes strongly attenuated from 50 m to the base of the euphotic zone (approximately 120 m). Cruise-average thorium-234-derived fluxes (mmol m–2 d–1) at 120 m were 1.7 ± 0.6 for POC, 0.22 ± 0.07 for PN, 0.019 ± 0.007 for TPP, 0.69 ± 0.26 for bSi, and 0.055 ± 0.022 for PIC. These bioelement fluxes were similar to previous observations at this site, with the exception of PIC, which was 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower. Transfer efficiencies within the upper twilight zone (flux 220 m/flux 120 m) were highest for PIC (84%) and bSi (79%), followed by POC (61%), PN (58%), and TPP (49%). These differences indicate preferential remineralization of TPP relative to POC or PN and larger losses of soft tissue relative to biominerals in sinking particles below the euphotic zone. Comprehensive characterization of the particulate bioelement fluxes obtained here will support future efforts linking phytoplankton community composition and food-web dynamics to the composition, magnitude, and attenuation of material that sinks to deeper waters.