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The South Atlantic response to a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. A reduced Agulhas leakage (about 3.1 Sv; 1 Sv = 10 m s) is found to be associated with a weaker Southern Hemisphere (SH) supergyre and Indonesian throughflow. These changes are due to reduced wind stress curl over the SH supergyre, associated with a weaker Hadley circulation and a weaker SH subtropical jet. The northward cross-equatorial transport of thermocline and intermediate waters is much more strongly reduced than Agulhas leakage in relation with an AMOC collapse. A cross-equatorial gyre develops due to an anomalous wind stress curl over the tropics that results from the anomalous sea surface temperature gradient associated with reduced ocean heat transport. This cross-equatorial gyre completely blocks the transport of thermocline waters from the South to the North Atlantic. The waters originating from Agulhas leakage flow somewhat deeper and most of it recirculates in the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, leading to a gyre intensification. This intensification is consistent with the anomalous surface cooling over the South Atlantic. Most changes in South Atlantic circulation due to global warming, featuring a reduced AMOC, are qualitatively similar to the response to an AMOC collapse, but smaller in amplitude. However, the increased northward cross-equatorial transport of intermediate water relative to thermocline water is a strong fingerprint of an AMOC collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic teleconnections between the low and midlatitudes are a key mechanism to understanding the climate variability. Spiciness anomalies (density-compensated anomalies) have been shown to transport temperature and salinity signals when propagating along current streamlines in the subtropical gyres of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The generation mechanism of spiciness anomalies in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre is investigated using an analytical model based on the late-winter subduction of salinity and temperature anomalies along isopycnal surfaces. The keystone of this approach is the change of the coordinates frame from isobaric to isopycnic surfaces, suited for subduction problems. The isopycnal nature of spiciness anomalies and the use of a linear density equation allows for the analytical model to depend only upon surface temperature and salinity anomalies, the mean thermocline currents, and the surface density ratio. This model clarifies and above all quantifies the mechanism by which surface temperature and salinity anomalies are modulated by density ratios to produce fully different isopycnal temperature and salinity anomalies. A global run from the ocean GCM (OGCM) Océan Parallélisé (OPA) over the period 1948–2002 provides the reference data in which the North Atlantic subtropical thermocline spiciness variability is analyzed. Two EOF modes are sufficient to explain half of the low-frequency variability in the OGCM: one is maximum over the northeastern subtropics, and the other is in the central basin. The analytical model reproduces well the spatial pattern, amplitude, and sign of these two main modes. It confirms that the two centers of action of the anomalies are conditioned by the surface density ratio, the first corresponding to null salinity gradients and the second to near-density-compensated temperature gradients. Considering that the analytical model has good skills at reproducing the decadal variability of the OGCM spiciness anomalies in the permanent thermocline, it is believed that this is an interesting tool to understand and forecast the ventilation of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre at this time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of weather is a main goal of atmospheric science. Its importance to society is growing continuously due to factors such as vulnerability to natural disasters, the move to renewable energy sources, and the risks of climate change. But prediction is also a major scientific challenge due to the inherently limited predictability of a chaotic atmosphere, and has led to a revolution in forecasting methods as we have moved to probabilistic prediction. These changes provide the motivation for Waves to Weather (W2W), a major national research program in Germany with three main university partners in Munich, Mainz, and Karlsruhe. We are currently in the second 4-yr phase of our planned duration of 12 years and employ 36 doctoral and postdoctoral scientists. In the context of this large program, we address what we have identified to be the most important and challenging scientific questions in predictability of weather, namely, upscale error growth, errors associated with cloud processes, and probabilistic prediction of high-impact weather. This paper presents some key results of the first phase of W2W and discusses how they have influenced our understanding of predictability. The key role of interdisciplinary research linking atmospheric scientists with experts in visualization, statistics, numerical analysis, and inverse methods will be highlighted. To ensure a lasting impact on research in our field in Germany and internationally, we have instituted innovative programs for training and support of early-career scientists, and to support education, equal opportunities, and outreach, which are also described here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]