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1. Mobile Phone-Based Population Flow Data for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China

Author

Xin Lu, Jing Tan, Ziqiang Cao, Yiquan Xiong, Shuo Qin, Tong Wang, Chunrong Liu, Shiyao Huang, Wei Zhang, Laurie B. Marczak, Simon I. Hay, Lehana Thabane, Gordon H. Guyatt, and Xin Sun

Subjects
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7
Abstract

Background. Human migration is one of the driving forces for amplifying localized infectious disease outbreaks into widespread epidemics. During the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the travels of the population from Wuhan have furthered the spread of the virus as the period coincided with the world’s largest population movement to celebrate the Chinese New Year. Methods. We have collected and made public an anonymous and aggregated mobility dataset extracted from mobile phones at the national level, describing the outflows of population travel from Wuhan. We evaluated the correlation between population movements and the virus spread by the dates when the number of diagnosed cases was documented. Results. From Jan 1 to Jan 22 of 2020, a total of 20.2 million movements of at-risk population occurred from Wuhan to other regions in China. A large proportion of these movements occurred within Hubei province (84.5%), and a substantial increase of travels was observed even before the beginning of the official Chinese Spring Festival Travel. The outbound flows from Wuhan before the lockdown were found strongly correlated with the number of diagnosed cases in the destination cities (log-transformed). Conclusions. The regions with the highest volume of receiving at-risk populations were identified. The movements of the at-risk population were strongly associated with the virus spread. These results together with province-by-province reports have been provided to governmental authorities to aid policy decisions at both the state and provincial levels. We believe that the effort in making this data available is extremely important for COVID-19 modelling and prediction.

Published
2021
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2. Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

Author

Joseph Jon Frostad, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Mathew M Baumann, Brigette F Blacker, Laurie B Marczak, Aniruddha Deshpande, Kirsten E Wiens, Kate E LeGrand, Kimberly B Johnson, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Hassan Abolhassani, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R M Abrigo, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Victor Adekanmbi, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Ziyad Al-Aly, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Vahid Alipour, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Saeed Amini, Fatemeh Amiri, Dickson A Amugsi, Robert Ancuceanu, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Marcel Ausloos, Getinet Ayano, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Ashish D Badiye, Atif Amin Baig, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Michelle L Bell, Derrick A Bennett, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Somayeh Bohlouli, Soufiane Boufous, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Dejana Braithwaite, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Felix Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ester Cerin, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Sarika Chaturvedi, Simiao Chen, Dinh-Toi Chu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Saad M A Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Aditya Prasad Dash, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Diego De Leo, Jan-Walter De Neve, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Sagnik Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Fariba Dorostkar, Leila Doshmangir, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Hisham Atan Edinur, Ferry Efendi, Maha El Tantawi, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Ibtihal Fadhil, Nazir Fattahi, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Mansour Ghafourifard, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Tiffany K Gill, Alessandra C Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Ayman Grada, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Rajat Das Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah R Hamadeh, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Soheil Hassanipour, Khezar Hayat, Behzad Heibati, Reza Heidari-Soureshjani, Nathaniel J Henry, Claudiu Herteliu, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mohamed Hsairi, Guoqing Hu, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Chidozie C D Iwu, Jalil Jaafari, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Tahereh Javaheri, Ravi Prakash Jha, John S Ji, Jost B Jonas, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rohollah Kalhor, Naser Kamyari, Tanuj Kanchan, Umesh Kapil, Neeti Kapoor, Gbenga A Kayode, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Yousef Saleh Khader, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Maseer Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gyu Ri Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Luke D Knibbs, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Faris Hasan Lami, Qing Lan, Savita Lasrado, Paolo Lauriola, Paul H Lee, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Daiane Borges Machado, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Mina Maheri, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Natalie Maria Martinez, Santi Martini, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Benjamin K Mayala, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Irmina Maria Michalek, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Maryam Mirzaei, Roya Mirzaei, Babak Moazen, Yousef Mohammad, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Abbas Mosapour, Simin Mouodi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Sandra B Munro, Christopher J L Murray, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Sanjeev Nair, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Javad Nazari, Ionut Negoi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Bogdan Oancea, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Anamika Pandey, Eun-Cheol Park, Eun-Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Hai Quang Pham, Thomas Pilgrim, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Maarten J Postma, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Sowmya J Rao, Davide Rasella, Prateek Rastogi, Goura Kishor Rath, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Reza Rawassizadeh, Andre M N Renzaho, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Negar Rezaei, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Jennifer Rickard, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Morteza Rostamian, Enrico Rubagotti, Godfrey M Rwegerera, Basema Saddik, Ehsan Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Biniyam Sahiledengle, Marwa Rashad Salem, Abdallah M Samy, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, David C Schwebel, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Saeed Shahabi, Amira A Shaheen, Izza Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali S Shalash, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammed Shannawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Ranjitha S Shetty, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, K M Shivakumar, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Balbir Bagicha Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Yitagesu Sintayehu, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Leo Stockfelt, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Amir Taherkhani, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Saif Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Era Upadhyay, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Santosh Varughese, Francesco S Violante, Bay Vo, Giang Thu Vu, Yasir Waheed, Yuan-Pang Wang, Catherine A Welgan, Andrea Werdecker, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Taraneh Yousefinezhadi, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Sojib Bin Zaman, Yunquan Zhang, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Michael Brauer, Simon I Hay, and Robert C Reiner, Jr

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Summary: Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2022
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3. Health effects associated with consumption of unprocessed red meat: a Burden of Proof study

Author

Haley Lescinsky, Ashkan Afshin, Charlie Ashbaugh, Catherine Bisignano, Michael Brauer, Giannina Ferrara, Simon I. Hay, Jiawei He, Vincent Iannucci, Laurie B. Marczak, Susan A. McLaughlin, Erin C. Mullany, Marie C. Parent, Audrey L. Serfes, Reed J. D. Sorensen, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Peng Zheng, and Christopher J. L. Murray

Subjects
General Medicine, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Abstract

Characterizing the potential health effects of exposure to risk factors such as red meat consumption is essential to inform health policy and practice. Previous meta-analyses evaluating the effects of red meat intake have generated mixed findings and do not formally assess evidence strength. Here, we conducted a systematic review and implemented a meta-regression—relaxing conventional log-linearity assumptions and incorporating between-study heterogeneity—to evaluate the relationships between unprocessed red meat consumption and six potential health outcomes. We found weak evidence of association between unprocessed red meat consumption and colorectal cancer, breast cancer, type 2 diabetes and ischemic heart disease. Moreover, we found no evidence of an association between unprocessed red meat and ischemic stroke or hemorrhagic stroke. We also found that while risk for the six outcomes in our analysis combined was minimized at 0 g unprocessed red meat intake per day, the 95% uncertainty interval that incorporated between-study heterogeneity was very wide: from 0–200 g d−1. While there is some evidence that eating unprocessed red meat is associated with increased risk of disease incidence and mortality, it is weak and insufficient to make stronger or more conclusive recommendations. More rigorous, well-powered research is needed to better understand and quantify the relationship between consumption of unprocessed red meat and chronic disease.

Published
2022
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4. Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study

Author

Xiaochen Dai, Gabriela F. Gil, Marissa B. Reitsma, Noah S. Ahmad, Jason A. Anderson, Catherine Bisignano, Sinclair Carr, Rachel Feldman, Simon I. Hay, Jiawei He, Vincent Iannucci, Hilary R. Lawlor, Matthew J. Malloy, Laurie B. Marczak, Susan A. McLaughlin, Larissa Morikawa, Erin C. Mullany, Sneha I. Nicholson, Erin M. O’Connell, Chukwuma Okereke, Reed J. D. Sorensen, Joanna Whisnant, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Peng Zheng, Christopher J. L. Murray, and Emmanuela Gakidou

Subjects
Research Design, Risk Factors, Smoking, Smoking Cessation, General Medicine, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Abstract

As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few attempts have evaluated the dose–response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose–response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty. Among the 36 selected outcomes, 8 had strong-to-very-strong evidence of an association with smoking, 21 had weak-to-moderate evidence of association and 7 had no evidence of association. By overcoming many of the limitations of traditional meta-analyses, our approach provides comprehensive, up-to-date and easy-to-use estimates of the evidence on the health effects of smoking. These estimates provide important information for tobacco control advocates, policy makers, researchers, physicians, smokers and the public.

Published
2022

5. Mortality from snakebite envenomation: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Mohsen Naghavi, Ali H. Mokdad, Amin Soheili, Félix Carvalho, Catalina Liliana Andrei, M. Mofizul Islam, Davood Anvari, Ali Bijani, Scott Zeng, Richard C. Franklin, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Marcel Ausloos, Hoa Do, Eduarda Fernandes, Archith Boloor, Simon I. Hay, Bach Xuan Tran, Lalit Dandona, Iván Landires, Erin B Hamilton, Syed Haque, Dinh-Toi Chu, Rakhi Dandona, Neeti Kapoor, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Firooz Esmaeilzadeh, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Atalel Fentahun Awedew, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Vinod C Nayak, Jagnoor Jagnoor, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mohammed Madadin, Khezar Hayat, Navid Manafi, Ashish Bhalla, Francis Monteiro, Venkatesh Maled, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos, Emily Johnson, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Huong Thanh Nguyen, Robert Reiner, Nicholas L S Roberts, Nithin Kumar, Jalal Arabloo, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Maryam Moradi, Irina Filip, Navid Rabiee, Mark A. Stokes, Mahaveer Golechha, Stephen S Lim, Salman Rawaf, Prateek Rastogi, David C. Schwebel, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Rekha Thapar, Kanyin Ong, Ritesh G. Menezes, Samer Hamidi, Ravensara S. Travillian, Robert Ancuceanu, Kewal Krishan, Ted R. Miller, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Amir Radfar, Ashish Badiye, Majid Pirestani, David Laith Rawaf, Claudiu Herteliu, Masoud Foroutan, Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis, Spencer L. James, Nikha Bhardwaj, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Tianji Cai, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Roba Khundkar, Diana Zuleika Velazquez, Abhay Gaidhane, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Xiaochen Dai, Monika Sawhney, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Berhe Gebremichael, G Anil Kumar, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Amir Abdoli, Aziz Eftekhari, Rosa A. S. Couto, Hai Pham, Marina Pinheiro, Tanuj Kanchan, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Farshad Farzadfar, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Lucas Earl, David M. Pigott, Samuel M. Ostroff, Laurie B. Marczak, Amirhossein Sahebkar, and Abdallah M. Samy

Subjects
Burden of disease, medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, medicine, Intensive care medicine, Envenomation, business
Abstract

Venomous snakebite is an important cause of preventable death. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to halve snakebite mortality by 2030. We used verbal autopsy and vital registration data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal contact mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In 2019, 63,400 people (95% uncertainty interval 38,900–78,600) died globally from snakebites, which was equal to an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 0.8 deaths (0.5–1.0) per 100,000 and represents a 36% (2–49) decrease in ASMR since 1990. India had the greatest number of deaths in 2019, equal to an ASMR of 4.0 per 100,000 (2.3-5.0). We forecast mortality will continue to decline, but not sufficiently to meet the WHO’s goals. Improved data collection should be prioritized to help target interventions, improve burden estimation, and monitor progress.

Published
2021
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6. Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017

Author

Scott J. Swartz, Rahul Rawat, Jonathan F. Mosser, Dan Lu, Benn Sartorius, Robert C. Reiner, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Ali H. Mokdad, Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Molly R Nixon, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Christopher J L Murray, Nathaniel J Henry, Jennifer M. Ross, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nicholas J Kassebaum, James Albright, Roy Burstein, William M. Gardner, Lauren Woyczynski, Lucas Earl, John D. VanderHeide, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Brandon V. Pickering, Emmanuela Gakidou, Ellen Piwoz, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, Krista M. Steuben, Laurie B. Marczak, Celia Louie, Chloe Shields, Stephen S Lim, Megan F. Schipp, Katherine F. Wilson, David L. Smith, Kimberly B. Johnson, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Simon I. Hay, Kirsten E. Wiens, and Michael A. Cork

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Public health, education.field_of_study, Oral rehydration salts, Letter, Infectious disease transmission, business.industry, Population, Breastfeeding, MEDLINE, Paediatrics, General Medicine, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, World health, 03 medical and health sciences, 030104 developmental biology, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk factors, 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, Environmental health, Medicine, education, business, Infant feeding, Breastfeeding support
Abstract

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk (and medications, oral rehydration salts and vitamins as needed) with no additional food or drink for their first six months of life—is one of the most effective strategies for preventing child mortality1–4. Despite these advantages, only 37% of infants under 6 months of age in Africa were exclusively breastfed in 20175, and the practice of EBF varies by population. Here, we present a fine-scale geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence and trends in 49 African countries from 2000–2017, providing policy-relevant administrative- and national-level estimates. Previous national-level analyses found that most countries will not meet the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of 50% EBF prevalence by 20256. Our analyses show that even fewer will achieve this ambition in all subnational areas. Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational EBF variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support., Exclusive breastfeeding in Africa is highly varied within and between countries, with many countries unlikely to reach World Health Organization 2025 targets without urgent action.

Published
2019
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7. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Author

Donal Bisanzio, Thomas W. Scott, G. R. William Wint, T. Alex Perkins, Nicole Davis Weaver, Lucas Earl, Laurie B. Marczak, Erik Wetter, Hongjie Yu, Shengjie Lai, Dingdong Yi, Simon I. Hay, Wim Van Bortel, Cedric Marsboom, Francis Schaffner, Giovanini E. Coelho, David M. Pigott, Jane P. Messina, Xin Lu, Robert C. Reiner, Linus Bengtsson, Andrew J. Tatem, David L. Smith, Chester G. Moore, Shreya Shirude, Qiyong Liu, Peter A. Jones, Kimberly J. Johnson, Roberta G. Carvalho, John S. Brownstein, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Oliver J. Brady, Nuno R. Faria, Louis Lambrechts, Nick Golding, Marius Gilbert, Heinrich H. Nax, Guy Hendrickx, Oliver G. Pybus, Simon Cauchemez, Catherine Linard, University of Oxford [Oxford], Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School [Boston] (HMS), University of Washington [Seattle], London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles] (FNRS), Harvard University [Cambridge], University of Nottingham, UK (UON), Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame [Indiana] (UND), Fudan University [Shanghai], University of Southampton, Flowminder Foundation, Central South University [Changsha], National University of Defense Technology [China], Southwestern University of Finance and Economics [Chengdu, China], Waen Associates Ltd, Pan American Health Organization [Washington] (PAHO), Ministry of Health [Brasília, Brazil], European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Institute of Tropical Medicine [Antwerp] (ITM), Egis Avia (FRANCE), Francis Schaffner Consultancy, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm], Stockholm School of Economics (SSE), Interactions Virus-Insectes - Insect-Virus Interactions (IVI), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pasteur [Paris], Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Namur [Namur] (UNamur), University of California [Davis] (UC Davis), University of California, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong University, University of Melbourne, The authors thank S. Ray for providing comments during the revision process. M.U.G.K. acknowledges funding from the Society in Science, The Branco Weiss Fellowship, administered by the ETH Zurich. M.U.G.K. also acknowledges funding from the Training Grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD040128). M.U.G.K., S.I.H., J.P.M., N.G., O.J.B. and G.R.W.W. acknowledge funding from the International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment Management and Surveillance (IDAMS, European Commission 7th Framework Programme no. 21893). O.B.J. was funded by a Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 206471/Z/17/Z) and a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OP1183567). S.I.H. received a grant from the Research for Health in Humanitarian Crises (R2HC) Programme, managed by Enhancing Learning and Research for Humanitarian Assistance (ELRHA, no. 13468), which also supported M.U.G.K. and N.G. The R2HC programme aims to improve health outcomes by strengthening the evidence base for public health interventions in humanitarian crises. The £8 million R2HC programme is funded equally by the Wellcome Trust and Department of International Development (DFiD), with ELRHA overseeing the programme’s execution and management. S.I.H. was also funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (no. 95066) and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106023, OPP1093011, OPP1132415 and OPP1159934). This study was made possible by the support of the American people through the US Agency for International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats Program-2 PREDICT-2 (Cooperative Agreement number AID-OAA-A-14-00102), which also supported M.U.G.K. J.S.B. is supported by the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health (R01LM010812 and R01LM011965), which also supports M.U.G.K. D.L.S. is funded by the National Institutes of Health and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (no. U10AI089674). H.H.N. was funded by the European Commission through the European Research Council Advanced Investigator Grant ‘Momentum’ 324247. L.L. received funding from the French Government’s Investissement d’Avenir program, Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (grant ANR-16-CE35-0004), the City of Paris Emergence(s) programme in Biomedical Research, and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under ZikaPLAN grant agreement No. 734584. S.C. received funding from the AXA Research Fund, the Investissement d’Avenir program, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (Grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under ZIKAlliance grant agreement No 734548. N.G. is supported by a University of Melbourne McKenzie fellowship. W.V.B., G.H. and F.S. acknowledge funding from VBORNET and VectorNet, an ECDC and EFSA-funded project (no. ECDC/09/018 and OC/EFSA/AHAW/2013/02), and thank all contributing VBORNET and VectorNet experts for data sharing. T.W.S., R.C.R. and L.L. received funding from the National Institutes of Health Program Project grant (no. P01 AI098670). X.L. is supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (71771213, 71522014, 71725001, 91846301 and 71790615). This work was also partially supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under ZIKAlliance Grant Agreement no. 734548., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CE35-0004,MOSQUIBIOTA,Contribution de la diversité bactérienne intestinale à la capacité vectorielle d'Aedes aegypti(2016), European Project: 734548,ZIKAlliance(2016), European Project: 324247,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2012-ADG_20120411,MOMENTUM(2013), European Project: 281803,EC:FP7:HEALTH,FP7-HEALTH-2011-single-stage,IDAMS(2011), University of Oxford, Harvard University, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [Stockholm, Sweden] (ECDC), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of California (UC)

Subjects
Microbiology (medical), Microbiologie et protistologie [parasitologie hum. et anim.], Aedes albopictus, Arbovirus Infections, Immunology, Aedes aegypti, medicine.disease_cause, Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology, Arbovirus, Microbiology, Article, Dengue fever, Zika virus, 03 medical and health sciences, Genetics, medicine, Chikungunya, 030304 developmental biology, Aedes, 0303 health sciences, biology, 030306 microbiology, Ecology, virus diseases, Cell Biology, biology.organism_classification, medicine.disease, 3. Good health, Microbiologie et protistologie [entomologie,phytoparasitolog.], Geography, [SDV.MP.VIR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology, Infectious diseases
Abstract

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally., 0, SCOPUS: ar.j, SCOPUS: er.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2019
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8. Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017

Author

Roy Burstein, Austin Carter, Christopher J L Murray, Robert Reiner, Peter Piot, Jason B. Hall, Alex Opio, John D. VanderHeide, Benn Sartorius, Nathaniel J Henry, Michael A. Cork, Benjamin K. Mayala, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Molly R Nixon, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Krista M. Steuben, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Tamer H. Farag, Lucas Earl, Laurie B. Marczak, Simon I. Hay, Jessica Justman, Jennifer M. Ross, Aniruddha Deshpande, Michael Collison, Kirsten E. Wiens, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Daniel C Casey, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Tahvi Frank, Njeri Wabiri, Katherine F. Wilson, David L. Smith, Molly H Biehl, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Frank Tanser, David M. Pigott, Naomi R. Provost, and National Institutes of Health

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Male, Epidemiology, Psychological intervention, Geographic Mapping, HIV Infections, 0302 clinical medicine, ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY, Prevalence, 030212 general & internal medicine, Young adult, Multidisciplinary, Geography, virus diseases, Middle Aged, Hiv prevalence, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Science & Technology - Other Topics, HIV/AIDS, SEX, Female, TERRITORIES, Public Health, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Sub saharan, Adolescent, General Science & Technology, 195 COUNTRIES, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), SURVEILLANCE, parasitic diseases, medicine, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Humans, Disease burden, Africa South of the Sahara, Science & Technology, MORTALITY, POPULATION-BASED SURVEYS, GLOBAL BURDEN, medicine.disease, Local variation, 030104 developmental biology, Demography
Abstract

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa., Fine-scale estimates of the prevalence of HIV in adults across sub-Saharan Africa reveal substantial within-country variation and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in the prevalence of HIV between 2000 and 2017.

Published
2019

9. Prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections of children in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a geospatial analysis

Author

Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Laurie B. Marczak, Jorge Cano, Simon I. Hay, Maria P. Rebollo, Pauline Mwinzi, Rachel L. Pullan, Lucy S. Tusting, Boniface E. Kinvi, Honorat G. M. Zouré, Hope Simpson, and Benn Sartorius

Subjects
Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Geospatial analysis, Sub saharan, Adolescent, 030231 tropical medicine, Helminthiasis, Psychological intervention, computer.software_genre, Severity of Illness Index, Soil, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Helminths, parasitic diseases, Prevalence, medicine, Animals, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Improved sanitation, Child, Socioeconomics, Socioeconomic status, Africa South of the Sahara, Spatial Analysis, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Public health, lcsh:RA1-1270, Articles, General Medicine, Investment (macroeconomics), Geography, Soil-transmitted helminth, Child, Preschool, Female, computer
Abstract

Background Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets. Methods We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space–time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5–14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018. Findings We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5–14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 [79%] of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Interpretation Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2021

10. Mobile Phone-Based Population Flow Data for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China

Author

Shiyao Huang, Wei Zhang, Simon I. Hay, Laurie B. Marczak, Tong Wang, Shuo Qin, Gordon H. Guyatt, Xin Lu, Xin Sun, Ziqiang Cao, Yiquan Xiong, Jing Tan, Chunrong Liu, and Lehana Thabane

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Mainland China, education.field_of_study, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Human migration, business.industry, Chinese spring, Population, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Outbreak, 03 medical and health sciences, 030104 developmental biology, 0302 clinical medicine, Geography, Mobile phone, business, Socioeconomics, China, education, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Abstract

Background . Human migration is one of the driving forces for amplifying localized infectious disease outbreaks into widespread epidemics. During the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the travels of the population from Wuhan have furthered the spread of the virus as the period coincided with the world’s largest population movement to celebrate the Chinese New Year. Methods . We have collected and made public an anonymous and aggregated mobility dataset extracted from mobile phones at the national level, describing the outflows of population travel from Wuhan. We evaluated the correlation between population movements and the virus spread by the dates when the number of diagnosed cases was documented. Results . From Jan 1 to Jan 22 of 2020, a total of 20.2 million movements of at-risk population occurred from Wuhan to other regions in China. A large proportion of these movements occurred within Hubei province (84.5%), and a substantial increase of travels was observed even before the beginning of the official Chinese Spring Festival Travel. The outbound flows from Wuhan before the lockdown were found strongly correlated with the number of diagnosed cases in the destination cities (log-transformed). Conclusions . The regions with the highest volume of receiving at-risk populations were identified. The movements of the at-risk population were strongly associated with the virus spread. These results together with province-by-province reports have been provided to governmental authorities to aid policy decisions at both the state and provincial levels. We believe that the effort in making this data available is extremely important for COVID-19 modelling and prediction.

Published
2021

11. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Manisha Dubey, Fatemeh Rajati, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Amir Khater, Reza Shirkoohi, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, David C. Schwebel, Milena Ilic, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Ronny Westerman, Taye Abuhay Zewale, Ravi Mehrotra, Sezer Kisa, Junaid Khan, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Marcel Ausloos, Getnet Gedefaw, Hamed Zandian, Edward J Mills, Aparna Lal, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal, Yousef Veisani, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Christopher Troeger, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Oliver J. Brady, David Laith Rawaf, Tamer H. Farag, Simin Mouodi, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Samad Azari, Getinet Ayano, Faris Lami, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Maryam Adabi, Alaa Badawi, Saravanan Muthupandian, Amir Hasanzadeh, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Bineyam Taye, Nader Jafari Balalami, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Paul H. Lee, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Kewal Krishan, Muhammad Ali, Ehsan Sadeghi, Richard C. Franklin, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Lal B. Rawal, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Behnam Heidari, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Eric L. Ding, Noushin Mohammadifard, Nihal Thomas, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Sanghamitra Pati, Addisu Melese, Niranjan Kissoon, Farzad Manafi, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Meysam Behzadifar, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Frank B. Osei, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Yahya Salimi, Pranab Chatterjee, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Benjamin K. Mayala, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Zahid A Butt, Olufemi Ajumobi, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Shafiu Mohammed, Charles Shey Shey Wiysonge, Félix Carvalho, Masresha Tessema Anegago, Yun Jin Kim, Ai-Min Wu, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Ana-Laura Manda, Aziz Eftekhari, Rakhi Dandona, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Nicole Davis Weaver, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Marwa Rashad Salem, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Dongyu Zhang, Saeed Safari, Vivekanand Jha, Keivan Ahmadi, Turki Alanzi, Amir Jalali, Hamidreza Haririan, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Surendra Karki, Kirsten E. Wiens, Boikhutso Tlou, Soraya Siabani, Muluken Azage Yenesew, Asnakew Achaw Ayele, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Susanna Dunachie, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Tissa Wijeratne, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, André Karch, Ebrahim Babaee, Akram Pourshams, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Bal Govind Chauhan, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Vera Marisa Costa, Mehdi Yaseri, Tahereh Pashaei, Benn Sartorius, Helen Derara Diro, Anelisa Jaca, Mostafa Hosseini, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Franz Castro, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chalachew Genet Akal, Natalie Maria Cormier, Ghulam Mustafa, Sonia Lewycka, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, David L. Smith, Ibrahim A Khalil, Genet Melak Alamene, George C Patton, Andem Effiong, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Collins Chansa, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Van C. Lansingh, Chabila C Mapoma, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Aubrey J. Levine, Miliva Mozaffor, Till Bärnighausen, Ali Rostami, André Faro, Rushdia Ahmed, Colm McAlinden, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Neeraj Bedi, Irfan Ullah, Winfried März, Rajeev Gupta, Masood Ali Shaikh, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Abbas Mosapour, Javad Nazari, Obinna Onwujekwe, Narinder Pal Singh, Dabere Nigatu, Tanuj Kanchan, Jagdish Khubchandani, Aklilu Endalamfaw, Hajer Elkout, Michelle L. Bell, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Evanson Z. Sambala, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nefsu Awoke, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Muki Shey, Christiane Dolecek, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Syed Ather Hussain, Birhan Tamene Alemnew, Arash Etemadi, Anwar E. Ahmed, Vinay Nangia, Sachin R Atre, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Robert C. Reiner, Rajat Das Gupta, Aniruddha Deshpande, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Chi Linh Hoang, Bahram Armoon, Manfred Accrombessi, Christopher J L Murray, Ebrahim M Yimer, Rashmi Gupta, Ahmed Omar Bali, Dadi Marami, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Getnet Mengistu, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Fereshteh Ansari, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, Ali S. Akanda, Satar Rezaei, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Irina Filip, Mohammad Fareed, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Yared A Asmare Aynalem, Gelin Xu, Zubair Kabir, Khalid A Altirkawi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Yibeltal Alemu Bekele, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Quique Bassat, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Moslem Soofi, Nuruzzaman Khan, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Alireza Esteghamati, Paramjit Gill, Nathaniel J Henry, Meghnath Dhimal, Hosein Shabaninejad, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Eugenio Traini, Mohammad Zamani, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Florian Fischer, Rafael Moreira Claro, Pushpendra Kumar, Shai Linn, Lucas Earl, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Getenet Dessie, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, John S. Ji, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Saeed Amini, Ziad A. Memish, Aisha Elsharkawy, Ken Lee Chin, Mustafa Z. Younis, Daniel Diaz, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Tomohide Yamada, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Platon D. Lopukhov, Alireza Rafiei, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Hossein Poustchi, Ayele Geleto Bali, Francesco Saverio Violante, Leonardo Roever, Giovanni Damiani, Maha El Tantawi, Nuworza Kugbey, Hadi Pourjafar, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Dinh-Toi Chu, Farkhonde Salehi, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Farnam Mohebi, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Senbagam Duraisamy, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Eleonora Dubljanin, Takeshi Fukumoto, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Fakher Rahim, Jasvinder A. Singh, Jai K Das, Savita Lasrado, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Santosh Varughese, Adnan Kisa, Laurie B. Marczak, Amira Shaheen, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Nader Jahanmehr, Yuming Guo, Arash Ziapour, Alex Yeshaneh, Ninuk Hariyani, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Joel M. Francis, Asmamaw Demis, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Praveen Hoogar, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Yunquan Zhang, Yousef Mohammad, Iman El Sayed, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Marzieh Nojomi, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Sameh Magdeldin, Anton Sokhan, Nauman Khalid, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Ben Lacey, Luca Ronfani, James Albright, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Khanh Bao Tran, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Parvaneh Mirabi, Boris Bikbov, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Assefa Desalew, Yasir Waheed, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Brian J. Hall, James A Platts-Mills, Gbenga A. Kayode, Jan-Walter De Neve, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Navid Manafi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Abdullah Al Mamun, Ali Bijani, Hedley Quintana, Shanshan Li, Kebreab Paulos, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, Oladimeji Adebayo, David Teye Doku, Brijesh Sathian, Bakhtiar Piroozi, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Netsanet Fentahun, Shymaa Enany, Ayman Grada, Salvatore Rubino, Kenji Shibuya, Norberto Perico, Sergio I. Prada, Andrea Farioli, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Mohsen Afarideh, Maciej Banach, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Rakesh Lodha, David M. Pigott, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Hadi Hassankhani, Daniel Adane Endalew, Siamak Sabour, Yoshan Moodley, Preeti Dhillon, Dilaram Acharya, Anas M. Saad, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Mohammad Rabiee, Ajay Patle, Rahman Shiri, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Davide Guido, Chuanhua Yu, Abdallah M. Samy, Ali Talha Khalil, Ashish Awasthi, Pascual R. Valdez, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Nejimu Biza Zepro, Taweewat Wiangkham, Anthony Masaka, Afsaneh Arzani, Ayesha Humayun, Michael Tamene Haile, Huyen Phuc Do, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Mehdi Ahmadi, Farah Daoud, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Suleman Atique, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Indang Trihandini, Mario Poljak, Bartosz Miazgowski, Huda Basaleem, Rafael Alves Guimares, Mina Anjomshoa, Peng Jia, Yafeng Wang, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Itamar S. Santos, Alireza Khatony, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Samath D Dharmaratne, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Konrad Pesudovs, Tina Beyranvand, Liliana Preotescu, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Enrico Rubagotti, Amira Hamed Darwish, Mahdi Safdarian, Ali Yadollahpour, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Moses K. Muriithi, Azmeraw T. Amare, Si Si, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Khaled Khatab, Masoud Behzadifar, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, G Anil Kumar, Margaret Kosek, Mona M. Khater, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ghobad Moradi, Srinivas Goli, Ruth W Kimokoti, Jalal Arabloo, Kimberly B. Johnson, Andrew T Olagunju, Mowafa Househ, In-Hwan Oh, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Jae Il Shin, Ahmed Abdelalim, Catherine A. Welgan, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Yuan-Pang Wang, Rosario Cárdenas, Mohammad Khazaei, Sebastian Vollmer, Xiu-Ju Zhao, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Degu Abate, Ali S. Shalash, Davide Rasella, Melese Abate Reta, Hedayat Abbastabar, Manu Raj Mathur, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Joseph Frostad, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Brigette F. Blacker, Carlo La Vecchia, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Foad Abd-Allah, Elias Merdassa Roro, Agus Sudaryanto, Fariba Ghassemi, Behzad Karami Matin, Mohsen Naghavi, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Maheswar Satpathy, Mahesh P A, Carlos Miguel Rios González, Pallab K. Maulik, Amir Kasaeian, Ali H. Mokdad, Alemayehu Toma Mena, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Ali Kabir, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Aberash Abay Tassew, Kala M. Mehta, Ionut Negoi, Hosni Salem, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Rufus A. Adedoyin, Saleem M Rana, Engida Yisma, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Hossein Farzam, Krishna K. Aryal, Lalit Dandona, Masoud Moradi, Juan Sanabria, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Shirin Djalalinia, Suraj Bhattarai, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Claudiu Herteliu, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Mohsen Bayati, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Gulfaraz Khan, Mostafa Leili, Nasir Salam, Ehsan Khodamoradi, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Vahid Alipour, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Rajesh Sagar, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Manasi Kumar, Mehdi Sharif, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Navid Rabiee, Gvs Murthy, Hamed Kalani, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Claudio Alberto Davila, Oluchi Okpala, Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli, Mathew M. Baumann, Bereket Duko Adema, Lorenzo Monasta, Paul S. F. Yip, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Dhirendra N Sinha, Farid Najafi, Kebede Deribe, Paula Moraga, Mehedi Hasan, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Vishnu Renjith, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Nuno Taveira, Masoud Foroutan, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Kamarul Imran Musa, Getaneh Alemu Abebe, Farshad Pourmalek, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Derrick A Bennett, Ahmad Daryani, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Apurba Shil, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Alexandre C. Pereira, Mehdi Naderi, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Rovshan Khalilov, Ai Koyanagi, Salman Khazaei, Jennifer Rickard, Ali Almasi, Sandra B. Munro, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, Local Burden Dis Diarrhoea, Department of Earth Observation Science, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, GeoHealth, Reiner, Robert C, Wiens, Kirsten E, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Baumann, Mathew M, Adema, Bereket Duko, Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn, Yisma, Engida, Hay, Simon I, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators, Tampere University, Health Sciences, University of Helsinki, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborator, and Violante FS

Subjects
Low income countries, medicine.medical_treatment, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Global Health, THERAPY, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, Prevalence, Global health, Medicine, WATER, 030212 general & internal medicine, Children, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Incidence, Mortality rate, Incidence (epidemiology), 1. No poverty, General Medicine, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, Diarrhoea, 3. Good health, Child, Preschool, Middle income countries, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, TERRITORIES, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Infants, Diarrhea, AFRICA, medicine.medical_specialty, Childhood deaths, RJ, sanitation, Developing country, Childhood diarrhoeal morbidity, ITC-HYBRID, 03 medical and health sciences, Medicine, General & Internal, General & Internal Medicine, Environmental health, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Life Science, Humans, Healthcare Disparities, Oral rehydration therapy, Risk factor, hand washing, Developing Countries, Disease burden, Global Nutrition, Wereldvoeding, Science & Technology, SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALITY, business.industry, CHOLERA, Public health, Bayes Theorem, diarrheal disease, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, NA, Human medicine, Diarrea, business
Abstract

Background: Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods: We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings: The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation: By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1132415). S Aljunid reports additional funding from the International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia and Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project outside of the study. A Awasthi is supported by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi, through the INSPIRE Faculty Program outside of the study. A Badawi reports additional funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada outside of the study. A Barac reports additional funding from the Project of Ministry of Education, Science and Technology of the Republic of Serbia (no III45005) outside of the study. T Bärnighausen reports additional funding by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research outside of the study. F Carvalho and E Fernandez report additional funding from the Portuguese national funds (UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019) outside of the study. V M Costa reports additional funding from Fundação da Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) for her grant (SFRH/BPD/110001/2015), which was funded by national funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, IP, under the Norma Transitória – DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006 outside of the study. J De Neve reports additional funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation outside of the study. K Deribe reports additional funding from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 201900) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship outside of the study. D Endalew and M Moradi report additional funding from Wolkite University. M Ausloos, C Herteliu, and A Pana report additional funding from the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084) outside of the study. C Herteliu reports additional funding from the European Fund for Regional Development through Operational Program for Competitiveness (Project ID P_40_382) and the European Fund for Regional Development, through InterReg Romania-Hungary (project code EMS ROHU 217) outside of the study. P Hoogar reports additional funding from the Centre for Holistic Development and Research (CHDR), Kalaghatagi and The Department of Studies in Anthropology, Karnatak University, D S Islam reports additional funding from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and the Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University outside of the study. A Khatony reports additional funding from the Clinical Research Development Center of Imam Reza Hospital in Kermanshah outside of the study. J Khubchandani reports additional funding from Merck Research Laboratories outside of the study. K Krishan reports additional funding from the UGC Center of Advanced Study (CAS II) awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India outside of the study. M Kumar reports additional funding from the Fogarty Foundation/NIH through a K43 award (TW010716-01A1) outside of the study. B Lacey reports additional funding from the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence (Oxford, UK) outside of the study. A M Samy reports additional funding from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program (EFMP) outside of the study. S Seyedmousavi reports additional funding from the Intramural Program of National Institute of Health Clinical Center, Bethesda, MD, USA outside of the study. M Shey reports additional funding from the Wellcome Trust Kenji Shibuya reports additional funding from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and Japan's Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology outside of the study. M Sobhiyeh reports additional funding from the Clinical Research Development Center of Imam Reza Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences outside of the study. J Soriano reports additional funding from Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain outside of the study. N Taveira reports additional funding from the LIFE study (RIA2016MC-1615) of the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP) program supported by the European Union outside of the study. B Unnikrishnan reports additional funding from the Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India outside of the study. T Wijeratne reports additional funding from the Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Rajarata, Saliyapura, Sri Lanka outside of the study. C S Wiysonge reports additional funding from the South African Medical Research Council and the National Research Foundation of South Africa outside of the study.

Published
2020

12. Mapping Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections of Children in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

Author

Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Jorge Cano, Benn Sartorius, Pauline Mwinzi, Simon I. Hay, Honorat G. M. Zouré, Rachel L. Pullan, Maria P. Rebollo, Laurie B. Marczak, Bonface Kinvi, Hope Simpson, and Lucy S. Tusting

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, biology, Public health, Psychological intervention, biology.organism_classification, Geography, Environmental health, medicine, Neglected tropical diseases, Survey data collection, Trichuris trichiura, Improved sanitation, Ascaris lumbricoides, Disease burden
Abstract

Background: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are among the most widespread neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and infect over 1 billion people worldwide, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accounting for >80% of disease burden. Driven by elimination targets, governments across SSA have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community based platforms. To justify and target ongoing investment in control, there is an urgent need to quantify their likely impact across SSA, and identify areas that remain at highest risk and unlikely to attain elimination thresholds. We examined the changes in STH prevalence amongst school-aged children in SSA from 2000 to 2018 at the programmatic implementation unit (IU) level to assess regional progress towards elimination. Methods: We used quantitative survey data for Africa that consisted of 23,356 georeferenced survey data points from 2000-2018, and spanning 3,011 of the 5,183 programmatic IUs within the spatial extents of STH in SSA. The data were used within a joint multivariable Bayesian space-time hierarchical framework with covariates to estimate STH prevalence and intensity at IU level from 2000 to 2018. Findings: Our findings suggest a steady decline in the prevalence of STH in SSA school-aged children, from 35% (or 74.6 million cases) in 2000 to 11% (or 33.9 million cases) in 2018, with the largest regional period decline for hookworm (23% to 5%), followed by Ascaris lumbricoides (14% to 7%) and Trichuris trichiura (5% to 2%), with convergence of hookworm and A. lumbricoides levels in 2013. By 2018, approximately 37% (1,938 of 5,183) of IU’s in SSA still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 1% target threshold, largely concentrated in five countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mozambique and Cameroon. The strongest factors driving reductions in prevalence were sustained effective preventative chemotherapy treatments, followed by improved sanitation, and lastly economic development. Interpretation: Our estimates provide an important tool for identifying where to target and further strengthen interventions, and where data gaps remain. If elimination of STH as a public health problem is to be achieved in SSA by 2030, renewed and increased investment in STH treatment and prevention activities are urgently required to accelerate reductions and ensure that no areas are left behind. Funding Statement: This work was primarily supported by the grant OPP1182963 from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.

Published
2020
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13. Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

Author

Leticia Avila-Burgos, Mahdi Safdarian, Devina Nand, Tim Driscoll, David C. Schwebel, Andrew T Olagunju, Saeid Safiri, Vasily Vlassov, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Jost B. Jonas, Reyna A Gutiérrez, Delia Hendrie, Fentaw Tadese, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Bach Xuan Tran, Mekonnen Sisay, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Tommi Vasankari, Kyle J Foreman, Kristopher J. Krohn, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Christian Kieling, Nadia Akseer, Maheswar Satpathy, Reza Assadi, Christopher J L Murray, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Rakhi Dandona, Sudha Jayaraman, Rintaro Mori, Mustafa Z. Younis, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Ashish Awasthi, Amit Arora, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Alan D. Lopez, Masoud Behzadifar, Ibrahim A Khalil, G Anil Kumar, George C Patton, Nancy Fullman, Nigussie Tadesse Sharew, André Faro, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Benn Sartorius, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Young-Ho Khang, Rajesh Sagar, Martha Híjar, Florian Fischer, Suliman Alghnam, Michael Kutz, Valery L. Feigin, Raimundas Lunevicius, Suzanne Polinder, Bryan L. Sykes, Van C. Lansingh, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Mamta Swaroop, Jasvinder A. Singh, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Spencer L. James, Alireza Esteghamati, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Soewarta Kosen, Kerrie E. Doyle, Michael R. Phillips, Amaha Kahsay, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Samath D Dharmaratne, James R. Bennett, Rohan Borschmann, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Joseph S Salama, Salman Rawaf, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Heidi J. Larson, Ted R. Miller, Caitlin Hawley, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Katya Anne Shackelford, Lalit Dandona, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Aman Yesuf Endries, Guilherme Borges, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Soraya Seedat, Paul S. F. Yip, Juan Sanabria, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Farshad Pourmalek, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mahfuzar Rahman, Richard Matzopoulos, Richard C. Franklin, Huyen Phuc Do, Mostafa Qorbani, Eric L. Ding, Mark A. Stokes, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Stephen S Lim, Tung Thanh Tran, Dan J. Stein, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mohsen Naghavi, Vegard Skirbekk, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Walter Mendoza, Arebu Issa Bilal, Pengpeng Ye, Shai Linn, Ali H. Mokdad, Alexandra Brazinova, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Ashish Bhalla, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, David Teye Doku, Ivy Shiue, Farshad Farzadfar, Shafiu Mohammed, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Khurshid Alam, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Dumessa Edessa, Quyen Nguyen, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Paul I. Dargan, Reza Malekzadeh, Olatunde Aremu, David Laith Rawaf, Zoubida Zaidi, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Meysam Behzadifar, Josep Maria Haro, Ziad El-Khatib, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Laurie B. Marczak, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Andrea Werdecker, Megha Arora, Neal D. Futran, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Diego De Leo, Faris Lami, Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli, Amir Kasaeian, Peter Memiah, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Till Bärnighausen, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Global Burden Dis 2016 Injury Col, Universitat de Barcelona, and Public Health

Subjects
Male, Global Health, 01 natural sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Firearm injury, Armas de Fuego, Homicide, Global health, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Young adult, Child, Aged, 80 and over, Mortality rate, Armes de foc, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, General Medicine, Middle Aged, 16. Peace & justice, Firearm suicide, Suicide, Gun ownership, Child, Preschool, Violencia, Female, Adult, Firearms, Adolescent, Uncertainty interval, Violence, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, Age Distribution, General & Internal Medicine, Mortalitat, Humans, Vital registration, Suicidio, Sex Distribution, 0101 mathematics, Mortality, Aged, business.industry, 010102 general mathematics, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Heridas por Arma de Fuego, Homicidio, Mortalidad, Wounds, Gunshot, Human medicine, business, Demography
Abstract

IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P

Published
2018

14. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Author

Mohsen Bayati, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Nasir Salam, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Davide Rasella, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Ghulam Mustafa, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Fereshteh Ansari, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Leonardo Roever, Oghenowede Eyawo, Koustuv Dalal, Ana-Laura Manda, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Javad Yoosefi Lebni, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Aziz Eftekhari, Oleguer Plana-Ripoll, Jon Wakefield, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Edris Hasanpoor, Brijesh Sathian, Kala M. Mehta, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Saeed Amini, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Abbas Yadegar, João Pedro Silva, Desmond Kuupiel, Anvar Asadi, Hamid Sharifi, Ebrahim Babaee, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Ian Davis, Mostafa Qorbani, Fatemeh Rajati, Samer Hamidi, Parvaiz A Koul, Foad Abd-Allah, Mojisola Oluwasanu, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Elias Merdassa Roro, Mihaela Hostiuc, Robert S. Bernstein, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Irina Filip, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Amir Khater, Lidia Morawska, Sangram Kishor Patel, Robert C. Reiner, Joshua O. Akinyemi, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Reza Malekzadeh, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Irfan Ullah, Gabrielle B. Britton, Gelin Xu, Nathaniel J Henry, Thomas R. Hird, Ronny Westerman, Vera Marisa Costa, Reza Assadi, Tiffany K. Gill, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Meysam Olfatifar, Sezer Kisa, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Walter Mendoza, Mohammad Zamani, Nader Jafari Balalami, Mahdi Safdarian, Manfred S. Green, Mahesh P A, Nahid Neamati, Pallab K. Maulik, Ali H. Mokdad, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Ahmad Daryani, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Mostafa Hosseini, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Nick Golding, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Shirin Nosratnejad, Haidong Wang, Shadi Rahimzadeh, Pushpendra Kumar, Mehdi Noroozi, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Brent Bell, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Yousef Veisani, Katie R Nielsen, Ionut Negoi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Amir Ashraf-Ganjouei, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Joseph L Ward, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Ettore Beghi, Azeem Majeed, Ivy Shiue, Delia Hendrie, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Moslem Soofi, Ghobad Moradi, Mahsa Ghajarzadeh, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Milad Hasankhani, Mohamed I Hegazy, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Vahid Alipour, Ruth W Kimokoti, Afshin Maleki, Nafiseh Baheiraei, Noore Alam, Jalal Arabloo, Mariam Molokhia, Kimberly B. Johnson, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, Kerem Shuval, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Paul H. Lee, Reza Ghadimi, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Ehsan Sadeghi, Brandon V. Pickering, Animika Pandey, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Felix Greaves, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Joel M. Francis, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Yun Jin Kim, Agus Sudaryanto, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Hadi Pourjafar, Tomohide Yamada, Alireza Rafiei, Rosario Cárdenas, Mohammad Khazaei, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Rahman Shiri, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Michael Collison, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Yahya Salimi, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Soewarta Kosen, Al Artaman, Surendra Karki, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Lorenzo Monasta, Amit Arora, Christopher S Yilgwan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Adnan Kisa, Gholamreza Roshandel, Vahid Rashedi, Daniel Diaz, Amir Vahedian-Azimi, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Nuworza Kugbey, Zohreh Arefi, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Robert G. Weintraub, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Alexandre C. Pereira, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Ai Koyanagi, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Salman Khazaei, Olalekan A. Uthman, Mohamed Hsairi, Nuno Taveira, Masoud Foroutan, Jayendra Sharma, Hanna Demelash Desyibelew, Max Roser, Keivan Ahmadi, Yousef Khader, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Ali Bijani, Shanshan Li, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Florian Fischer, Aziz Sheikh, Eun-Kee Park, Stefan Listl, Smita Pakhale, Brian J. Hall, Alireza Zangeneh, Ravi Mehrotra, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Mahdi Afshari, Son Hoang Nguyen, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Rupak Desai, Aziz Rezapour, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Gillian I. Hollerich, Reza Saeedi, Iman El Sayed, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Ben Lacey, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Roya Ebrahimi, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Tommi Vasankari, Siamak Sabour, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Job F M van Boven, Nataliya Foigt, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Neeraj Bedi, Hamed Mirjalali, Payman Salamati, P N Sylaja, Ted R. Miller, George J. Milne, Alaa Badawi, Muhammad Usman, Amir Hasanzadeh, Michelle L. Bell, Giang Thu Vu, Masoud Behzadifar, Manasi Kumar, Mona M. Khater, Josip Car, Nafis Sadat, Mostafa Leili, Mehdi Sharif, Hadi Hassankhani, Mowafa Househ, Joshua A. Salomon, Morteza Mansourian, G Anil Kumar, João C. Fernandes, Tufa Kolola, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Masood Ali Shaikh, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Andrew T Olagunju, Bahram Armoon, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Samantha Perkins, Mohsen Mazidi, Stefan Lorkowski, Sagnik Dey, Edward J Mills, Ali Kabir, Maryam Khazaei-Pool, Mohammad Rabiee, Arianna Maever L. Amit, John S. Ji, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Martin McKee, Hadi Parsian, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Paramjit Gill, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Karen M. Tabb, Annie J. Browne, Abdallah M. Samy, Elham Ehsani-Chimeh, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Destallem Gebremedhin Gebre, Fakher Rahim, Sheetal D. Lad, Rajat Das Gupta, Yash Jobanputra, Rajesh Sharma, Davoud Adham, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Meghnath Dhimal, Pranab Chatterjee, Javad Javidnia, Shafiu Mohammed, Amir Abdoli, Josep Maria Haro, Stefanie Watson, Behnam Nabavizadeh, Masoumeh Abbasi, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Marzieh Nojomi, G. K. Mini, Abbas Mosapour, Cyrus Cooper, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Jagdish Khubchandani, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Faramarz Shaahmadi, Satar Rezaei, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Francesco Saverio Violante, Eyal Oren, Erfan Zabeh, Atte Meretoja, Nicholas Graetz, Kris J. Krohn, Anthony Masaka, Oladimeji Adebayo, Mikk Jürisson, Faris Lami, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Chloe Shields, Yahya Safari, Yasir Waheed, Dilaram Acharya, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Jan-Walter De Neve, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Alberto Ortiz, Samad Azari, Shymaa Enany, Maha Ezalarab, Salvatore Rubino, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Roghayeh Khabiri, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Yuming Guo, Sonia Saxena, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Takeshi Fukumoto, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Thomas Pilgrim, Yasser Vasseghian, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Farid Najafi, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Ali Rostami, Efat Mohamadi, Sameh Magdeldin, Hedley Quintana, Cyrus Alinia, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Roya Safari-Faramani, Leila Doshmangir, Kewal Krishan, Karen Sliwa, Nazrul Islam, Neal Marquez, Genet Melak Alamene, Andem Effiong, Khanh Bao Tran, Amir Kasaeian, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Hamidreza Haririan, Maha El Tantawi, Anders Larsson, André Faro, Rushdia Ahmed, Amir Shamshirian, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Yousef Moradi, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Evanson Z. Sambala, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Mehdi Moradinazar, Lauren Woyczynski, Parul Puri, Yunquan Zhang, Navid Manafi, Vinay Nangia, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, Sofia Androudi, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Netsanet Fentahun, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, David L. Smith, Solomon Sisay, Giuseppe Gorini, Meysam Behzadifar, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Bach Xuan Tran, Lal B. Rawal, Arefeh Babazadeh, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Ziad El-Khatib, Zohreh Anbari, Abdol Sattar Pagheh, Ranjani Somayaji, Frank B. Osei, Nancy Fullman, Zahid A Butt, Ai-Min Wu, Tahereh Pashaei, Benn Sartorius, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Sachin R Atre, Mehdi Ahmadi, Chalachew Genet Akal, Aubrey J. Levine, Mohammad Fareed, Quique Bassat, Khalid A Altirkawi, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Daem Roshani, Mina Anjomshoa, Jasvinder A. Singh, Yafeng Wang, Samath D Dharmaratne, Enrico Rubagotti, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Reinhard Busse, Abdullah Al Mamun, Yoshan Moodley, Mohammed Almalki, Peter W. Gething, Alireza Khatony, Usman Iqbal, Soraya Nouraei Motlagh, Roy Burstein, Hamed Zandian, Rakhi Dandona, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Majid Pirestani, Jaifred Christian F. Lopez, Chuanhua Yu, Arash Ziapour, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Pascual R. Valdez, Amir Jalali, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Kelechi Elizabeth Oladimeji, Tomislav Mestrovic, Isidora S. Vujcic, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Azin Nahvijou, Chi Linh Hoang, Christopher J L Murray, Mustafa Z. Younis, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Yuan-Pang Wang, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Soghra Bagheri, Paul S. F. Yip, Sree Bhushan Raju, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Kebede Deribe, Junaid Khan, Mohammad Aghaali, Lalit Dandona, Masoud Moradi, Molly R Nixon, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Suraj Bhattarai, Yared Belete Belay, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Abbas Balouchi, Silvano Gallus, Mohammad Abdollahi, Long Hoang Nguyen, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mehdi Naderi, Bernhard T. Baune, Lucas Earl, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Farkhonde Salehi, Hamed Kalani, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Lee Ling Lim, Ulrich O Mueller, Laurie B. Marczak, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Navid Rabiee, Dinh-Toi Chu, Vasily Vlassov, Bradford D Gessner, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Sorin Hostiuc, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Takahiro Tabuchi, Philimon Gona, Bahar Ataeinia, Azra Ramezankhani, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Obinna Onwujekwe, Zohreh Rahimi, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Wagaye Fentahun Chanie, Neda Kianipour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Dhirendra N Sinha, Young-Ho Khang, Paula Moraga, Manoochehr Karami, Solomon Olum, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Kiomars Sharafi, Rohollah Kalhor, Benjamin K. Mayala, Mahmood Moosazadeh, David C. Schwebel, Jost B. Jonas, Quyen G. To, Ester Cerin, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Groningen Research Institute for Asthma and COPD (GRIAC), Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, GeoHealth, HUS Neurocenter, Department of Neurosciences, Neurologian yksikkö, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Staff Services, Department of Surgery, University of Helsinki, Islam, Nazrul [0000-0003-3982-4325], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Burstein R., Henry N.J., Collison M.L., Marczak L.B., Sligar A., Watson S., Marquez N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi M., Abbasi M., Abd-Allah F., Abdoli A., Abdollahi M., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abrigo M.R.M., Acharya D., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adham D., Afshari M., Aghaali M., Ahmadi K., Ahmadi M., Ahmadpour E., Ahmed R., Akal C.G., Akinyemi J.O., Alahdab F., Alam N., Alamene G.M., Alene K.A., Alijanzadeh M., Alinia C., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Almalki M.J., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amegah A.K., Amini S., Amit A.M.L., Anbari Z., Androudi S., Anjomshoa M., Ansari F., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Arefi Z., Aremu O., Armoon B., Arora A., Artaman A., Asadi A., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Ashraf-Ganjouei A., Assadi R., Ataeinia B., Atre S.R., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayanore M.A., Azari S., Babaee E., Babazadeh A., Badawi A., Bagheri S., Bagherzadeh M., Baheiraei N., Balouchi A., Barac A., Bassat Q., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Belay Y.B., Bell B., Bell M.L., Berbada D.A., Bernstein R.S., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bohlouli S., Breitborde N.J.K., Britton G., Browne A.J., Nagaraja S.B., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Cardenas R., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Cerin E., Chanie W.F., Chatterjee P., Chu D.-T., Cooper C., Costa V.M., Dalal K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Davis I., Davis Weaver N., Davitoiu D.V., De Neve J.-W., Demeke F.M., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Desai R., Deshpande A., Desyibelew H.D., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Diaz D., Doshmangir L., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Ebrahimi R., Ebrahimpour S., Effiong A., Eftekhari A., Ehsani-Chimeh E., El Sayed I., El Sayed Zaki M., El Tantawi M., El-Khatib Z., Emamian M.H., Enany S., Eskandarieh S., Eyawo O., Ezalarab M., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Faridnia R., Faro A., Fazaeli A.A., Fazlzadeh M., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Gallus S., Gebre D.G., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremeskel G.G., Gessner B.D., Geta B., Gething P.W., Ghadimi R., Ghadiri K., Ghajarzadeh M., Ghashghaee A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Golding N., Gomes N.G.M., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorini G., Goulart B.N.G., Graetz N., Greaves F., Green M.S., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall B.J., Hamidi S., Haririan H., Haro J.M., Hasankhani M., Hasanpoor E., Hasanzadeh A., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Hegazy M.I., Hendrie D., Heydarpour F., Hird T.R., Hoang C.L., Hollerich G., Rad E.H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi M., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Hsairi M., Ilesanmi O.S., Imani-Nasab M.H., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Islam N., Islam S.M.S., Jurisson M., Balalami N.J., Jalali A., Javidnia J., Jayatilleke A.U., Jenabi E., Ji J.S., Jobanputra Y.B., Johnson K., Jonas J.B., Shushtari Z.J., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir A., Kahsay A., Kalani H., Kalhor R., Karami M., Karki S., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Keiyoro P.N., Kemp G.R., Khabiri R., Khader Y.S., Khafaie M.A., Khan E.A., Khan J., Khan M.S., Khang Y.-H., Khatab K., Khater A., Khater M.M., Khatony A., Khazaei M., Khazaei S., Khazaei-Pool M., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kolola T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kraemer M.U.G., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kugbey N., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kuupiel D., Lacey B., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Larsson A.O., Lee P.H., Leili M., Levine A.J., Li S., Lim L.-L., Listl S., Longbottom J., Lopez J.C.F., Lorkowski S., Magdeldin S., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majeed A., Maleki A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manafi N., Manda A.-L., Mansourian M., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Maulik P.K., Mayala B.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Meles G.G., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Miller-Petrie M.K., Mills E.J., Milne G.J., Mini G.K., Mir S.M., Mirjalali H., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad D.K., Darwesh A.M., Mezerji N.M.G., Mohammed A.S., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi Y., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mosapour A., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Muluneh A.G., Mustafa G., Nabavizadeh B., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Nahvijou A., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Ngunjiri J.W., Thi Nguyen H.L., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nielsen K.R., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Nixon M.R., Nnaji C.A., Nojomi M., Noroozi M., Nosratnejad S., Noubiap J.J., Motlagh S.N., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oladimeji K.E., Olagunju A.T., Olfatifar M., Olum S., Olusanya B.O., Oluwasanu M.M., Onwujekwe O.E., Oren E., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz A., Osarenotor O., Osei F.B., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Otstavnov S.S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pagheh A.S., Pakhale S., Panda-Jonas S., Pandey A., Park E.-K., Parsian H., Pashaei T., Patel S.K., Pepito V.C.F., Pereira A., Perkins S., Pickering B.V., Pilgrim T., Pirestani M., Piroozi B., Pirsaheb M., Plana-Ripoll O., Pourjafar H., Puri P., Qorbani M., Quintana H., Rabiee M., Rabiee N., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi Z., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahimzadeh S., Rajati F., Raju S.B., Ramezankhani A., Ranabhat C.L., Rasella D., Rashedi V., Rawal L., Reiner Jr R.C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezaei S., Rezapour A., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.I., Roever L., Roro E.M., Roser M., Roshandel G., Roshani D., Rostami A., Rubagotti E., Rubino S., Sabour S., Sadat N., Sadeghi E., Saeedi R., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salahshoor M.R., Salam N., Salamati P., Salehi F., Zahabi S.S., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J.A., Sambala E.Z., Samy A.M., Santric Milicevic M.M., Jose B.P.S., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Saxena S., Sbarra A.N., Schaeffer L.E., Schwebel D.C., Sepanlou S.G., Seyedmousavi S., Shaahmadi F., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamshirian A., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharifi H., Sharma J., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shiue I., Shuval K., Siddiqi T.J., Silva J.P., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Sisay M.M., Sisay S., Sliwa K., Smith D.L., Somayaji R., Soofi M., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sykes B.L., Sylaja P.N., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Tabuchi T., Taveira N., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thankappan K.R., Thirunavukkarasu S., To Q.G., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vahedian-Azimi A., Valdez P.R., van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Vasseghian Y., Veisani Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vos T., Vu G.T., Vujcic I.S., Waheed Y., Wakefield J., Wang H., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Ward J.L., Weintraub R.G., Weldegwergs K.G., Weldesamuel G.T., Westerman R., Wiysonge C.S., Wondafrash D.Z., Woyczynski L., Wu A.-M., Xu G., Yadegar A., Yamada T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yilgwan C.S., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Lebni J.Y., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yousof H.-A.S.A., Yu C., Yusefzadeh H., Zabeh E., Moghadam T.Z., Bin Zaman S., Zamani M., Zandian H., Zangeneh A., Zerfu T.A., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Zodpey S., Murray C.J.L., and Hay S.I.

Subjects
Survival, RJ101, Mortalidad Infantil, HB, UNDER-5 MORTALITY, Global Health, Pediatrics, 0302 clinical medicine, 3123 Gynaecology and paediatrics, Child death, Infant Mortality, Epidemiology, Global health, Middle income country, Nacimiento vivo, 030212 general & internal medicine, 10. No inequality, Child, POPULATION, Developing world, education.field_of_study, Public health, Multidisciplinary, Geography, Mortality rate, wa_900, 1. No poverty, SUCCESS, Pediatrik, A900 Others in Medicine and Dentistry, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 3. Good health, Child Mortality, Death children, VACCINATION, HEALTH, ws_100, INTERVENTIONS, AFRICA, medicine.medical_specialty, United Nations, General Science & Technology, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, Developing country, Article, Healthcare improvement science Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 18], ITC-HYBRID, 03 medical and health sciences, All institutes and research themes of the Radboud University Medical Center, Social Justice, Recién nacido, Neonatal deaths, medicine, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Organizational Objectives, Humans, education, Developing Countries, business.industry, Infant, Newborn, Infant, CIVIL REGISTRATION, Paediatrics, Child survival, Newborn, PREVENTION, Infant mortality, wa_320, ws_200, Child mortality, Socioeconomic Factors, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, Human medicine, Paediatrics, Public health, Developing world, business, Demography
Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations., A high-resolution, global atlas of mortality of children under five years of age between 2000 and 2017 highlights subnational geographical inequalities in the distribution, rates and absolute counts of child deaths by age.

Published
2019
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15. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Author

David M. Pigott, Nicole Davis Weaver, Raman Velayudhan, Thomas Jaenisch, Peter A. Jones, Simon I. Hay, William Wint, Nick Golding, Kimberly B. Johnson, Marius Gilbert, Oliver J. Brady, Shreya Shirude, Robert Reiner, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Lucas Earl, Laurie B. Marczak, Thomas W. Scott, Freya M Shearer, Jane P. Messina, and Sarah E Ray

Subjects
Diseases, Dengue virus, medicine.disease_cause, Global Health, Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology, Dengue fever, Dengue, Aedes, Models, Risk Factors, Global health, Geography, Medical, 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, biology, Geography, Transmission (medicine), Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles, Statistical, 3. Good health, Medical Microbiology, Infectious diseases, Microbiology (medical), Climate Change, Immunology, Population, Climate change, Mosquito Vectors, Microbiology, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Urbanization, Medical, Genetics, medicine, Animals, Humans, education, Environmental planning, 030304 developmental biology, Models, Statistical, 030306 microbiology, Cell Biology, Dengue Virus, biology.organism_classification, medicine.disease, 13. Climate action
Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2019

16. Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017

Author

Joseph Frostad, Simon I. Hay, Kirsten E. Wiens, Brigette F. Blacker, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Peter W. Gething, Roy Burstein, Nicholas Graetz, Sandra B. Munro, Ibrahim A Khalil, Robert C. Reiner, Mathew M. Baumann, Christopher J L Murray, Catherine A. Welgan, Jonathan F. Mosser, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Samir Bhatt, David L. Smith, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Scott J. Swartz, Oliver J. Brady, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Puja C Rao, Lucas Earl, Christopher Troeger, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Tamer H. Farag, Laurie B. Marczak, Sarah E Ray, Daniel J. Weiss, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Ian Davis, Jennifer M. Ross, David M. Pigott, QuynhAnh P. Nguyen, Nicole Davis Weaver, Ali H. Mokdad, and Daniel C Casey

Subjects
Microbiology (medical), Change over time, medicine.medical_specialty, Epidemiology, Immunology, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Disease cluster, Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology, Microbiology, Policy and public health in microbiology, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Health services, 0302 clinical medicine, Environmental health, Genetics, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Lower respiratory infection, Respiratory Tract Infections, Health policy, Cause of death, Respiratory tract diseases, Infectious-disease epidemiology, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Incidence, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Bayes Theorem, Cell Biology, Risk factors, Child, Preschool, Africa, Public Health, Morbidity, business
Abstract

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5, despite the existence of vaccines against many of their aetiologies. Furthermore, more than half of these deaths occur in Africa. Geospatial models can provide highly detailed estimates of trends subnationally, at the level where implementation of health policies has the greatest impact. We used Bayesian geostatistical modelling to estimate LRI incidence, prevalence and mortality in children under 5 subnationally in Africa for 2000–2017, using surveys covering 1.46 million children and 9,215,000 cases of LRI. Our model reveals large within-country variation in both health burden and its change over time. While reductions in childhood morbidity and mortality due to LRI were estimated for almost every country, we expose a cluster of residual high risk across seven countries, which averages 5.5 LRI deaths per 1,000 children per year. The preventable nature of the vast majority of LRI deaths mandates focused health system efforts in specific locations with the highest burden., Geospatial modelling shows an overall decline in morbidity and mortality due to lower respiratory infections in Africa from 2000 to 2017, but also identifies subnational areas with residual high risk.

Published
2019

17. Global Deaths Attributable to High Systolic Blood Pressure, 1990-2016

Author

Michaela Loeffler, Laurie B. Marczak, and Joan Williams

Subjects
03 medical and health sciences, medicine.medical_specialty, 0302 clinical medicine, Blood pressure, High systolic blood pressure, business.industry, Internal medicine, Cardiology, medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, General Medicine, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, business
Published
2018

18. Global burden of hypertension and systolic blood pressure of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015

Author

Gregory A. Roth, Yuichiro Yano, Ronny Westerman, Monika Sawhney, Paulo A. Lotufo, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Awoke Misganaw, Rajeev Gupta, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Young-Ho Khang, Tommi Vasankari, Yun Jin Kim, Alemseged Aregay Gebru, Ferrán Catalá-López, Christopher J L Murray, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Olalekan A. Uthman, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Girma Temam Shifa, George A. Mensah, Ali H. Mokdad, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson, Ardeshir Khosravi, Graeme J. Hankey, Florian Fischer, Jost B. Jonas, Thomas Truelsen, Tolesa Bekele, Itamar S. Santos, Haseeb Nawaz, Theo Vos, Marcello Tonelli, Anwar Rafay, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Aletta E. Schutte, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Farshad Pourmalek, Valery L. Feigin, Reza Malekzadeh, Arindam Basu, David Rojas-Rueda, Andrew E. Moran, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Ivy Shiue, Derrick A Bennett, Alan D. Lopez, João C. Fernandes, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Raghib Ali, Lily Alexander, Naohiro Yonemoto, Suzanne E. Judd, Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni, Dhaval Kolte, Peter Azzopardi, Philimon Gona, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Stan Biryukov, Patrick Liu, Tomi Akinyemiju, Bruce Neal, Till Bärnighausen, Amanda G. Thrift, Amitava Banerjee, Kara Estep, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Marie Ng, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Laurie B. Marczak, Lijing L. Yan, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, and Mohammad H. Forouzanfar

Subjects
Male, Pediatrics, Myocardial Ischemia, Normal Distribution, PROGRESSION, Blood Pressure, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Global Health, 0302 clinical medicine, Cause of Death, Prevalence, 030212 general & internal medicine, Stroke, Cause of death, Aged, 80 and over, Mortality rate, Uncertainty, General Medicine, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE, Hypertension, Cardiology, Blood pressure, Hipertensió, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, ARTERIAL STIFFNESS, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Intracranial Hemorrhages, Monte Carlo Method, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Systole, Pressió sanguínia, Risk Assessment, 03 medical and health sciences, Medicine, General & Internal, AGE, Age Distribution, Internal medicine, General & Internal Medicine, medicine, Disability-adjusted life year, Humans, CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Sex Distribution, METAANALYSIS, Aged, Science & Technology, business.industry, MORTALITY, KIDNEY-DISEASE, medicine.disease, Health Surveys, Quality-adjusted life year, Arterial stiffness, RISK-FACTORS, business
Abstract

IMPORTANCE Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. DESIGN A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (>110-115mmHg and also >= 140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. RESULTS Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20526 (95% UI, 20283-20746) per 100000. The estimated annual death rate per 100000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). Loss of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 148 million (95% UI, 134-162 million) to 211 million (95% UI, 193-231 million), and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deathswere caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (>= 110-115 and >= 140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher. Copyright 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Published
2017

19. Health effects of overweight and obesity in 195 countries over 25 years

Author

Yun Jin Kim, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Hirbos Shore Roba, Rafael Lozano, Lalit Dandona, Xiaofeng Liang, Azeem Majeed, Stephen M. Amrock, Yousef Khader, Derrick A Bennett, Theo Vos, Stephen T. McGarvey, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Johan Ärnlöv, Liliana G Ciobanu, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Tommi Vasankari, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Samath D Dharmaratne, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Azmeraw T. Amare, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Rakhi Dandona, Philimon Gona, Jonathan I. Silverberg, Andre Pascal Kengne, Amir Kasaeian, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Colm McAlinden, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Ivy Shiue, Saverio Stranges, Moretza Shamsizadeh, Kelly Cercy, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Alireza Esteghamati, Patrick Liu, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Saeid Safiri, Marissa B Reitsma, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mall Leinsalu, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Jarnail Singh Thakur, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Ala'a Alkerwi, Nikolas Reinig, Joshua Wesana, Christopher J L Murray, Benn Sartorius, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Alan D. Lopez, João C. Fernandes, Elisabete Weiderpass, Kokeb T. Hadush, Aleksandra Barac, Amitava Banerjee, Juan Sanabria, Leslie Cornaby, Ritul Kamal, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Joseph Salama, Yuichiro Yano, Gerald Yonga, Maria Inês Schmidt, Simon I. Hay, Solomon Abrha Damtew, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Gert B. M. Mensink, Audra L Gold, Dube Jara Boneya, George C Patton, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Mohsen Naghavi, Estifanos Baye, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Laurie B. Marczak, Patrick J Sur, Zoubida Zaidi, Stein Emil Vollset, Andrea Werdecker, Olalekan A. Uthman, Reza Malekzadeh, Kara Estep, Alexander Lee, Jasvinder A. Singh, Masako Horino, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Cristiana Abbafati, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Balewgizie Sileshi Tegegne, Ulrich O Mueller, Min Jeong Shin, Farhad Islami, Ben Zipkin, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Ali H. Mokdad, Soumya Swaminathan, Monika Sawhney, Mostafa Qorbani, Marcello Tonelli, Juan Jesus Carrero, Jagdish Khubchandani, Pedro Cecilio, Valery L. Feigin, Thomas Fürst, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Joshua A. Salomon, Mohsen Mazidi, Tiffany Ku, Ziad Al-Aly, Alemayehu Amberbir, Itamar S. Santos, Soewarta Kosen, Atsushi Goto, Ronny Westerman, Anwar Rafay, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Stephen S Lim, Espen Bjertness, Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Naohiro Yonemoto, Hamid Asayesh, Young-Ho Khang, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Ashkan Afshin, Heidi J. Larson, Farshad Pourmalek, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Josef Schmidhuber, Yohannes Kinfu, Roman Topor-Madry, Babak Eshrati, Aletta E. Schutte, Rahman Shiri, Masoud Vaezghasemi, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Erfan Amini, Stan Biryukov, Fentaw Tadese, George A. Mensah, Anil Kumar, Daniel Kim, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Afshin, Ashkan, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Reitsma, Marissa B, Sur, Patrick, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Murray, Christopher JL, and Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa

Subjects
Male, Gerontology, Pediatric Obesity, obesity, VDP::Medisinske Fag: 700::Helsefag: 800::Epidemiologi medisinsk og odontologisk statistikk: 803, global health, Disease, Overweight, Global Health, VDP::Social science: 200::Demography: 300, DISEASE, VDP::Medical disciplines: 700::Health sciences: 800::Nutrition: 811, Body Mass Index, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Pandemic, Prevalence, adults, Global health, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, humans, ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY, child, adult, 1. No poverty, pediatric obesity/epidemiology, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, General Medicine, CANCER, 3. Good health, female, VDP::Medical disciplines: 700::Health sciences: 800::Epidemiology medical and dental statistics: 803, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort, Female, medicine.symptom, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, obesitat, Research Article, Adult, prevalence, overweight/complications/epidemiology, WEIGHT-LOSS, 030209 endocrinology & metabolism, KNEE OSTEOARTHRITIS, VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Demografi: 300, VDP::Medisinske Fag: 700::Helsefag: 800::Ernæring: 811, 03 medical and health sciences, cardiovascular diseases/complications/mortality, Medicine, General & Internal, children, male, General & Internal Medicine, Environmental health, medicine, Humans, overweight, COHORT, Obesity, Disease burden, METAANALYSIS, Science & Technology, GBD 2015 Obesity Collaborators, business.industry, ADULTS, medicine.disease, PREVENTION, BODY-MASS INDEX, Cross-Sectional Studies, business, Body mass index, obesity/complications/*epidemiology
Abstract

Source at: http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1614362 Background: Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. Methods: We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. Restults: In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.

Published
2017

20. Instream Habitat Restoration and Stream Temperature Reduction in a Whirling Disease-Positive Spring Creek in the Blackfoot River Basin, Montana

Author

Craig. Podner, Leslie A. Jones, Laurie B. Marczak, and Ron. Pierce

Subjects
Hydrology, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, biology, Ecology, Range (biology), Drainage basin, Aquatic Science, biology.organism_classification, Spring (hydrology), Environmental science, Stream restoration, Restoration ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Stream temperature, Channel (geography), Myxobolus cerebralis
Abstract

Anthropogenic warming of stream temperature and the presence of exotic diseases such as whirling disease are both contemporary threats to coldwater salmonids across western North America. We examined stream temperature reduction over a 15-year prerestoration and postrestoration period and the severity of Myxobolus cerebralis infection (agent of whirling disease) over a 7-year prerestoration and postrestoration period in Kleinschmidt Creek, a fully reconstructed spring creek in the Blackfoot River basin of western Montana. Stream restoration increased channel length by 36% and reduced the wetted surface area by 69% by narrowing and renaturalizing the channel. Following channel restoration, average maximum daily summer stream temperatures decreased from 15.7°C to 12.5°C, average daily temperature decreased from 11.2°C to 10.0°C, and the range of daily temperatures narrowed by 3.3°C. Despite large changes in channel morphology and reductions in summer stream temperature, the prevalence and severity o...

Published
2014
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21. Testing Ecological Tradeoffs of a New Tool for Removing Fine Sediment in a Spring-fed Stream

Author

Juddson D. Sechrist, Adam J. Sepulveda, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Habitat, Ecology, Substrate composition, Spring (hydrology), Sediment, Environmental science, STREAMS, Stream restoration, Substrate (marine biology), Nature and Landscape Conservation, Structure and function
Abstract

Excessive fine sediment is a focus of stream restoration work because it can impair the structure and function of streams, but few methods exist for removing sediment in spring-fed streams. We tested a novel method of sediment removal with the potential to have minimal adverse effects on the biological community during the restoration process. The Sand Wand system, a dredgeless vacuum developed by Streamside Technologies, was used to experimentally remove fine sediment from Kackley Springs, a spring creek in southeastern Idaho. We assessed the effects of the Sand Wand on stream physical habitat and macroinvertebrate composition for up to 60 days after the treatment. We documented changes in multiple habitat variables, including stream depth, median particle size, and the frequency of embedded substrate in stream reaches that were treated with the Sand Wand. We also found that macroinvertebrate composition was altered even though common macroinvertebrate metrics changed little after the treatment. Our results suggest that the Sand Wand was effective at removing fine sediments in Kackley Springs and did minimal harm to macroinvertebrate function, but the Sand Wand was not ultimately effective in improving substrate composition to desired conditions. Additional restoration techniques are still needed to decrease the amount of fine sediment.

Published
2014
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22. Publisher Correction: Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017

Author

Louie C, Ali H. Mokdad, Stephen S Lim, Nathaniel J Henry, Molly R Nixon, Simon I. Hay, Roy Burstein, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Dan Lu, Benn Sartorius, Emmanuela Gakidou, Kirsten E. Wiens, Michael A. Cork, William M. Gardner, Lauren Woyczynski, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Jennifer M. Ross, Katherine F. Wilson, Chloe Shields, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, David L. Smith, Robert C. Reiner, Brandon V. Pickering, Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Scott J. Swartz, Lucas Earl, Ellen Piwoz, Laurie B. Marczak, Jonathan F. Mosser, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nicholas J Kassebaum, John D. VanderHeide, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Rahul Rawat, Murray Cjl., Krista M. Steuben, Megan F. Schipp, Kimberly B. Johnson, and James Albright

Subjects
Public health, Time Factors, business.industry, Infant, Newborn, Breastfeeding, Infant, Paediatrics, HIV Infections, General Medicine, Public relations, World Health Organization, Publisher Correction, Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Breast Feeding, Risk factors, Africa, Prevalence, Humans, Female, Sociology, business
Abstract

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk (and medications, oral rehydration salts and vitamins as needed) with no additional food or drink for their first six months of life-is one of the most effective strategies for preventing child mortality

Published
2019
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23. Publisher Correction: Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Author

Nicole Davis Weaver, Lucas Earl, Laurie B. Marczak, G. R. William Wint, Nuno R. Faria, Cedric Marsboom, Dingdong Yi, Giovanini E. Coelho, Shreya Shirude, Andrew J. Tatem, David M. Pigott, Louis Lambrechts, Shengjie Lai, Linus Bengtsson, Simon Cauchemez, Hongjie Yu, David L. Smith, Chester G. Moore, Roberta G. Carvalho, Xin Lu, Oliver J. Brady, Catherine Linard, Kimberly B. Johnson, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Oliver G. Pybus, Robert Reiner, Qiyong Liu, Thomas W. Scott, Simon I. Hay, Donal Bisanzio, T. Alex Perkins, Marius Gilbert, Heinrich H. Nax, Guy Hendrickx, Nick Golding, Peter A. Jones, John S. Brownstein, Francis Schaffner, Jane P. Messina, Erik Wetter, and Wim Van Bortel

Subjects
Microbiology (medical), medicine.medical_specialty, History, media_common.quotation_subject, 030231 tropical medicine, Immunology, Library science, Mosquito Vectors, Arbovirus Infections, Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology, Microbiology, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Aedes, Hygiene, Epidemiology, medicine, Genetics, Animals, Humans, China, media_common, 030304 developmental biology, 0303 health sciences, 030306 microbiology, Public health, Published Erratum, Spell, Cell Biology, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Publisher Correction, 3. Good health, Medical Microbiology, Tropical medicine, Infectious diseases, Female, Arboviruses
Abstract

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

Published
2019
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24. Importance of local vs. geographic variation in salt marsh plant quality for arthropod herbivore communities

Author

Laurie B. Marczak, Steven C. Pennings, Robert F. Denno, and Kazimierz Więski

Subjects
geography, Herbivore, education.field_of_study, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Population, Plant Science, Biology, Spartina alterniflora, biology.organism_classification, Food web, Predation, Mesopredator release hypothesis, Salt marsh, Omnivore, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract

Summary 1. An important recent advance in food web ecology has been the application of theory regarding spatial gradients to studies of the factors that affect animal population dynamics. Building on extensive studies of the Spartina alterniflora food web at the local scale, we hypothesized that geographic variation in S. alterniflora quality is an important bottom-up control on food web structure and that geographic variation in S. alterniflora quality would interact with the presence of predators and top omnivores to mediate herbivore densities. 2. We employed a four-factor fully crossed experiment in which we (i) collected plants from highand low-latitude locations and grew them in a common garden and varied (ii) plant fertilization status (mimicking the plant quality differences due to marsh elevation), (iii) mesopredator density and (iv) omnivore density. 3. Our results suggest that the single most important factor mediating insect herbivore densities is local variation in plant quality – induced in our experiment by fertilization and demonstrated repeatedly as a consequence of marsh elevation. 4. Top-down effects were generally weak and in those cases where predators did exert a significant suppressing effect on herbivores, that impact was itself mediated by host-plant characteristics. 5. Finally, despite observed variation in plant quality with latitude, and the separately measurable effects of this variation on herbivores, geographic-scale variation in plant quality was overwhelmed by local conditions in our experiments. 6. Synthesis. We suggest that a first-order understanding of variation across large latitudinal ranges in the Spartina alterniflora arthropod food web must begin with local variation in plant quality, which provides strong bottom-up forcing to herbivore populations. A second-order understanding of the arthropod food web should consider the role of predation in controlling herbivores feeding on lowquality plants. Finally, while latitudinal variation in plant quality probably explains some variation in herbivore densities, it is probably more of a response to herbivore pressure than a driver of the herbivore dynamics. Although extrapolating from local to geographic scales presents multiple challenges, it is an essential task in order for us to develop an understanding that is general rather than site-specific.

Published
2013
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25. Firearm Deaths in the United States and Globally, 1990-2015

Author

Dawn Shepard, Katherine Leach-Kemon, Kevin O’Rourke, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
03 medical and health sciences, 030505 public health, 0302 clinical medicine, Homicide, business.industry, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, General Medicine, Criminology, 0305 other medical science, business
Published
2016

26. Effects of an Omnivorous Katydid, Salinity, and Nutrients on a Planthopper-Spartina Food Web

Author

Steven C. Pennings, Chuan-Kai Ho, Kazimierz Więski, Laurie B. Marczak, and Juan M. Jimenez

Subjects
Herbivore, Spartina, geography, food.ingredient, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, biology, Aquatic Science, biology.organism_classification, Spartina alterniflora, Food web, Orchelimum, food, Salt marsh, Omnivore, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Trophic level
Abstract

Top–down and bottom–up effects interact to structure communities, especially in salt marshes, which contain strong gradients in bottom–up drivers such as salinity and nutrients. How omnivorous consumers respond to variation in prey availability and plant quality is poorly understood. We used a mesocosm experiment to examine how salinity, nutrients, an omnivore (the katydid Orchelimum fidicinium) and an herbivore (the planthopper Prokelisia spp.) interacted to structure a simplified salt marsh food web based on the marsh grass Spartina alterniflora. Bottom–up effects were strong, with both salinity and nutrients decreasing leaf C/N and increasing Prokelisia abundance. Top–down effects on plants were also strong, with both the herbivore and the omnivore affecting S. alterniflora traits and growth, especially when nutrients or salt were added. In contrast, top–down control by Orchelimum of Prokelisia was independent of bottom–up conditions. Orchelimum grew best on a diet containing both Spartina and Prokelisia, and in contrast to a sympatric omnivorous crab, did not shift to an animal-based diet when prey were present, suggesting that it is constrained to consume a mixed diet. These results suggest that the trophic effects of omnivores depend on omnivore behavior, dietary constraints, and ability to suppress lower trophic levels, and that omnivorous katydids may play a previously unrecognized role in salt marsh food webs.

Published
2011
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27. Active dispersal of an aquatic invader determined by resource and flow conditions

Author

Laurie B. Marczak and Adam J. Sepulveda

Subjects
Upstream (petroleum industry), education.field_of_study, Resource (biology), Ecology, Water flow, Field experiment, Population, Introduced species, STREAMS, Biology, Flow conditions, Flow velocity, Environmental science, Biological dispersal, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract

New Zealand mudsnails (NZMS) have spread rapidly across the western United States, but little is known about mechanisms that drive their spread within invaded streams. We used a field experiment to test if upstream movement is a potential vector of NZMS spread and how this movement is modified by flow velocity and resource availability. We found movement direction and rates were related to flow velocity, while resource availability influenced the number of individuals that moved. In slow-flow treatments, individuals moved upstream at faster rates (~ 3 m/hr) than previously recorded for this species. In fast-flow treatments, most individuals were dislodged downstream and upstream movement rates were less than 2 m/hr. In low-resource treatments, individuals were more likely to move away from their initial starting locations. We suggest that upstream movement may be important in establishing new populations within local invasions and that increases in flow velocity may be an effective means to slow the upstream spread of NZMS. The surprisingly fast movements that we recorded predict greater distribution of NZMS within invaded streams than has actually occurred, which suggests that factors in addition to NZMS movement rate may limit population spread.

Published
2011
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28. Department of Error

Author

Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Krishna K. Aryal, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Ahmad Daryani, Claudio Alberto Davila, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, David L. Smith, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Robert C. Reiner, Bineyam Taye, Dadi Marami, Ghulam Mustafa, Manasi Kumar, Mostafa Leili, Mehdi Sharif, Mohsen Naghavi, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Oluchi Okpala, Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli, Nihal Thomas, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ebrahim Babaee, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Miliva Mozaffor, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Meysam Behzadifar, Carlos Miguel Rios González, Pallab K. Maulik, Ali H. Mokdad, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Florian Fischer, Lalit Dandona, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Alemayehu Toma Mena, Jennifer Rickard, Benjamin K. Mayala, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Moslem Soofi, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Boris Bikbov, Bereket Duko Adema, Jagdish Khubchandani, Sachin R Atre, Rafael Moreira Claro, Sandra B. Munro, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Soraya Siabani, Muluken Azage Yenesew, Birhan Tamene Alemnew, Anwar E. Ahmed, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Masresha Tessema Anegago, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Vivekanand Jha, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Hadi Pourjafar, Junaid Khan, Farnam Mohebi, Marcel Ausloos, Manisha Dubey, Quynh Anh P. Nguyen, Assefa Desalew, Vera Marisa Costa, Mohammad Fareed, Ronny Westerman, Maciej Banach, Paul S. F. Yip, Kala M. Mehta, Mehdi Yaseri, Quique Bassat, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Fatemeh Rajati, Irina Filip, Gelin Xu, Derrick A Bennett, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Fariba Ghassemi, Behzad Karami Matin, David C. Schwebel, Syed Ather Hussain, Milena Ilic, Xiu Ju Zhao, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Mostafa Hosseini, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Santosh Varughese, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chalachew Genet Akal, Chabila C Mapoma, Aubrey J. Levine, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Rufus A. Adedoyin, Gudlavalleti Vs Murthy, Amir Khater, Olufemi Ajumobi, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Mehdi Ahmadi, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Richard C. Franklin, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Dhirendra N Sinha, Shai Linn, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Abdullah Al Mamun, Yoshan Moodley, Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Hajer Elkout, Mohammad Zamani, Yousef Mohammad, Yousef Veisani, Iman El Sayed, Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis, Alex Yeshaneh, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Pushpendra Kumar, Engida Yisma, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Kebede Deribe, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Ayele Geleto Bali, Platon D. Lopukhov, Paula Moraga, Giovanni Damiani, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Hossein Farzam, Amir Kasaeian, Taye Abuhay Zewale, Ben Lacey, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Ali Kabir, Lal B. Rawal, Juan Sanabria, Ehsan Khodamoradi, Saeed Amini, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Aberash Abay Tassew, Sezer Kisa, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Hosni Salem, Ayman Grada, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mina Anjomshoa, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Maryam Adabi, Nuworza Kugbey, Rahman Shiri, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Nader Jahanmehr, Yuming Guo, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Mehdi Naderi, Ziad A. Memish, Adnan Kisa, Gbenga A. Kayode, Yafeng Wang, Ehsan Sadeghi, Behnam Heidari, Apurba Shil, Kamarul Imran Musa, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Farshad Pourmalek, Saravanan Muthupandian, Navid Rabiee, Mario Poljak, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Sameh Magdeldin, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Khanh Bao Tran, James A Platts-Mills, Jan-Walter De Neve, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Hedley Quintana, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Eric L. Ding, Noushin Mohammadifard, Saeed Safari, Addisu Melese, Rakesh Lodha, Reza Shirkoohi, Itamar S. Santos, Alireza Khatony, Mohammad Khazaei, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Taweewat Wiangkham, Hamed Kalani, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Frank B. Osei, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Konrad Pesudovs, Kewal Krishan, Samath D Dharmaratne, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Tina Beyranvand, Yahya Salimi, Winfried März, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Azmeraw T. Amare, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Maha El Tantawi, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Susanna Dunachie, Shymaa Enany, Anelisa Jaca, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Salvatore Rubino, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Indang Trihandini, Bartosz Miazgowski, Huda Basaleem, Zahid A Butt, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Navid Manafi, Si Si, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, Andrea Farioli, Masoud Moradi, Joseph Frostad, Collins Chansa, Enrico Rubagotti, Edward J Mills, Senbagam Duraisamy, Foad Abd-Allah, Moses K. Muriithi, Elias Merdassa Roro, Netsanet Fentahun, Kenji Shibuya, Amira Hamed Darwish, Ai-Min Wu, Tomohide Yamada, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Sonia Lewycka, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo, Faris Lami, Aziz Eftekhari, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, André Karch, Suraj Bhattarai, Mona M. Khater, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Padukudru Anand Mahesh, Alexandre C. Pereira, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, In-Hwan Oh, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Margaret Kosek, Yunquan Zhang, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Rahul Gupta, Claudiu Herteliu, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Oliver J. Brady, Samad Azari, Ebrahim M Yimer, Andrew T Olagunju, Ana Laura Manda, Ali Rostami, Aniruddha Deshpande, Ninuk Hariyani, Gulfaraz Khan, Narinder Pal Singh, Dabere Nigatu, Jae Il Shin, Preeti Dhillon, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Michelle L. Bell, Rakhi Dandona, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Obinna Onwujekwe, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Tanuj Kanchan, Suleman Atique, Rovshan Khalilov, Ai Koyanagi, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Jalal Arabloo, Ahmed Abdelalim, Van C. Lansingh, Ali Almasi, Catherine A. Welgan, Surendra Karki, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Akram Pourshams, Mowafa Househ, Dilaram Acharya, Getnet Mengistu, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Salman Khazaei, Bahram Armoon, Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, David Laith Rawaf, Ali S. Akanda, Till Bärnighausen, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Ahmed Omar Bali, Norberto Perico, Sergio I. Prada, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Helen Derara Diro, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Ajay Patle, Simin Mouodi, Yuan-Pang Wang, Alireza Esteghamati, Paramjit Gill, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Meghnath Dhimal, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Nader Jafari Balalami, Lucas Earl, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Franz Castro, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Sebastian Vollmer, Getinet Ayano, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, John S. Ji, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Arash Etemadi, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nefsu Awoke, Anton Sokhan, Daniel Adane Endalew, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi, Jacek Jóźwiak, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Degu Abate, Ali S. Shalash, Hamidreza Haririan, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Davide Guido, Masoud Foroutan, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Niranjan Kissoon, Farkhonde Salehi, Ashish Awasthi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Anthony Masaka, Getenet Dessie, Fakher Rahim, Aklilu Endalamaw, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Farzad Manafi, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Vahid Alipour, Neeraj Bedi, Kimberly B. Johnson, Laurie B. Marczak, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Amira Shaheen, Zubair Kabir, Saleem Muhammad Rana, Marzieh Nojomi, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Tissa Wijeratne, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Carlo La Vecchia, Chuanhua Yu, Pascual R. Valdez, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Liliana Preotescu, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Keivan Ahmadi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Ken Lee Chin, Dinh-Toi Chu, Francesco Saverio Violante, Yasir Waheed, Daniel Diaz, Rosario Cárdenas, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Nauman Khalid, Nejimu Biza Zepro, Turki Alanzi, Amir Jalali, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Nuruzzaman Khan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Christiane Dolecek, Melese Abate Reta, Vinay Nangia, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Ravi Mehrotra, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Brigette F. Blacker, Savita Lasrado, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Arash Ziapour, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Praveen Hoogar, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Mahdi Safdarian, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Chi Linh Hoang, Boikhutso Tlou, Manfred Accrombessi, Christopher J L Murray, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Hossein Poustchi, Farid Najafi, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Christopher Troeger, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Paul H. Lee, Genet Melak Alamene, George C Patton, Andem Effiong, André Faro, Rushdia Ahmed, Colm McAlinden, Parvaneh Mirabi, Joshua Longbottom, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Alireza Rafiei, Somayeh Bohlouli, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Javad Nazari, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Sanghamitra Pati, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Khaled Khatab, Evanson Z. Sambala, Mohsen Afarideh, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Mustafa Z. Younis, Hamed Zandian, Aparna Lal, Tamer H. Farag, Tahereh Pashaei, Benn Sartorius, Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Marwa Rashad Salem, Davide Rasella, Hedayat Abbastabar, Manu Raj Mathur, Peng Jia, Natalie Maria Cormier, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Kirsten E. Wiens, Ghobad Moradi, Srinivas Goli, Ruth W Kimokoti, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Khalid A Altirkawi, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Alaa Badawi, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Getnet Azeze Gedefaw, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Eleonora Dubljanin, Amir Hasanzadeh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Fereshteh Ansari, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Agus Sudaryanto, Muhammad Ali, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Leonardo Roever, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Maheswar Satpathy, Asnakew Achaw Ayele, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Yibeltal Alemu Bekele, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Luca Ronfani, James Albright, Nathaniel J. Henry, Ionut Negoi, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Brijesh Sathian, Yousef Khader, Bal Govind Chauhan, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Ali Bijani, Irfan Ullah, Shirin Djalalinia, Shanshan Li, Kebreab Paulos, Mohsen Bayati, Nasir Salam, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Rajesh Sagar, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Siamak Sabour, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Mathew M. Baumann, Mehedi Hasan, Vishnu Renjith, Nuno Taveira, Getaneh Alemu Abebe, Pranab Chatterjee, Shafiu Mohammed, Dongyu Zhang, Abbas Mosapour, Muki Shey, Rajat Das Gupta, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Satar Rezaei, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Eugenio Traini, Oladimeji Adebayo, Aisha Elsharkawy, David M. Pigott, Hadi Hassankhani, Anas M. Saad, Mohammad Rabiee, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Abdallah M. Samy, Ali Talha Khalil, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Afsaneh Arzani, Ayesha Humayun, Michael Tamene Haile, Huyen Phuc Do, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Rajeev Gupta, Davoud Adham, Farah Daoud, Jai K Das, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Joel M. Francis, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Brian J. Hall, Ravi Prakash Jha, David Teye Doku, Guoqing Hu, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Ali Yadollahpour, Masoud Behzadifar, and G Anil Kumar

Subjects
Burden of disease, 030219 obstetrics & reproductive medicine, business.industry, Low income and middle income countries, General Medicine, Specific mortality, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Article, 3. Good health, 03 medical and health sciences, Geography, 0302 clinical medicine, Environmental health, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Geographical inequalities, business, Demography
Abstract

Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

Published
2018
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29. Resource subsidies across the land-freshwater interface and responses in recipient communities

Author

Yixin Zhang, John S. Richardson, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
education.field_of_study, geography, Resource (biology), geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Population, Subsidy, STREAMS, Plant litter, Litter, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Ecosystem, education, General Environmental Science, Water Science and Technology, Riparian zone
Abstract

Fluxes of resource subsidies, such as terrestrial leaf litter to streams and adult aquatic insects to riparian predators, are examples of important links between adjacent ecosystems. The importance of these cross-ecosystem resource flows from donor systems to recipient consumers is increasingly recognized. Streams, especially small streams with their high edge ratio with the terrestrial system, provide excellent models for the study of subsidies and a large portion of this literature has been produced by aquatic scientists. Field experiments manipulating flows between small streams and their riparian areas (e.g. leaf litter, terrestrial invertebrates, and adult aquatic insects to riparian areas) have indicated that consumers in streams and riparian areas are highly dependent upon such subsidies and the value of the subsidies are further modified by patterns of retention and pathways of use. Experiments typically indicate rapid growth or demographic responses by consumers, indicating these populations are resource limited or at levels of incipient population limitation, and can capitalize on short-term resource pulses. More press manipulations are still necessary to determine the dynamical consequences of subsidies for recipient communities. The nature of the subsidy (e.g. species of litter or invertebrates) and its timing are also important details that need further study. Finally, there are opportunities to consider the evolution of life cycle timing (modelling), interception strategies by recipient populations and short-term and long-term responses of communities.

Published
2009
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30. Growth and development rates in a riparian spider are altered by asynchrony between the timing and amount of a resource subsidy

Author

Laurie B. Marczak and John S. Richardson

Subjects
Analysis of Variance, Life Cycle Stages, Spider, geography, education.field_of_study, Time Factors, geography.geographical_feature_category, British Columbia, Ecology, Phenology, Reproduction, Body Weight, Population, Spiders, Subsidy, Biology, Predation, Aquatic insect, Animals, Riparian forest, Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Riparian zone
Abstract

Rapid growth in response to increased prey abundance may be induced by environmental variability associated with resource subsidies. Spiders living in riparian areas are subject to frequent, episodic bursts of aquatic prey (subsidies). These periods of high resource abundance may occur at different points in recipient consumers' development through variation in emergence patterns of prey between years or across a landscape. We examine how variable timing of subsidy abundance intersects with life history scheduling to produce different growth and development outcomes for individuals within a population. Through a series of controlled feeding experiments, we tested the hypotheses that the spider Tetragnatha versicolor: (1) exhibits compensatory growth in response to subsidy variability, (2) that rapid increases in mass may result in a greater risk of mortality, and (3) that the timing of subsidy resources relative to the development schedule of this spider may produce different outcomes for individual growth patterns and adult condition. Spiders fed at very high rates grew fastest but also showed evidence of increased mortality risk during moulting. T. versicolor is capable of exhibiting strong growth compensation-individuals suffering initial growth restriction were able to catch up completely with animals on a constant diet utilising the same amount of food. Spiders that received an early pulse of resources (simulating an early arrival of an aquatic insect subsidy to riparian forests) did worse on all measures of development and fitness than spiders that received either a constant supply of food or a late pulse of resources. Importantly, receiving large amounts of food early in life appears to actually confer relative disadvantages in terms of later performance compared with receiving subsidies later in development. Subsidies may provide greater benefits to individuals or age cohorts encountering this resource abundance closer to the onset of reproductive efforts than subsidies arriving early in development.

Published
2008
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31. Trophic interception: how a boundary‐foraging organism influences cross‐ecosystem fluxes

Author

John S. Richardson, Laurie B. Marczak, and Trent M. Hoover

Subjects
Habitat, Ecology, Foraging, Detritivore, Ecosystem, Biology, Interception, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Food web, Predation, Trophic level
Abstract

The rate at which subsidies move between habitats is a function not only of those factors that facilitate such transfers, but also of factors that limit or restrict the movement of subsidies. The interruption or redirection of subsidies by organisms foraging at the boundary between habitats, or trophic interception, has the potential to substantially restructure the food webs of recipient habitats. In this study we describe how a waterstrider, Aquarius remigis , limits the transfer of a subsidy across the land-water boundary. Prey interception varied with the type of stream habitat; on average, waterstriders in isolated pools intercepted 71.8% of experimental prey inputs of all sizes compared with 21.5% in connected pools and 0.8% in riffles. Across all stream habitat types, waterstriders consumed 43.2% of the experimental inputs of the smallest prey used, the prey size class most similar to natural inputs in our study area. We estimate that foraging waterstriders may intercept 0.3 � 1.2 kg of terrestrial prey subsidy for every 100 m of stream channel during three summer months, resources that could otherwise support 13 � 58 young-of-the-year salmonids. In controlled trials, waterstriders significantly altered the amount of terrestrial prey directly consumed by fish, while fish also altered waterstrider interception of those prey. Interestingly, when waterstriders and fish were present together, more terrestrial prey were lost to the streambed than when either or both of these consumers were absent, making this resource available to benthic detritivores, and facilitating the direct incorporation of terrestrial nutrients into stream detrital webs. Overall, we demonstrate that organisms that forage at habitat boundaries can control the quantity and quality of subsidies arriving in recipient habitats, potentially altering food web structures within those habitats.

Published
2007
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33. Spiders and subsidies: results from the riparian zone of a coastal temperate rainforest

Author

Laurie B. Marczak and John S. Richardson

Subjects
Male, Food Chain, Insecta, Time Factors, Population Dynamics, Rainforest, Biology, Trees, Rivers, Abundance (ecology), Aquatic insect, Animals, Biomass, Relative species abundance, Ecosystem, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Riparian zone, Population Density, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, fungi, Primary production, Spiders, Habitat, Predatory Behavior, Exclosure, Female, Animal Science and Zoology
Abstract

Summary 1 Aquatic insects emerging from streams can provide an important energy subsidy to recipient consumers such as riparian web-building spiders. This subsidy has been hypothesized to be of little importance where the primary productivity of the recipient habitat exceeds that of the donor habitat. 2 To test this hypothesis, we manipulated emerging stream insect abundance in a productive riparian rainforest in a replicated design using greenhouse-type exclosures, contrasted with unmanipulated stream reaches (four exclosures on two streams). 3 Experimental exclosures resulted in a 62·9% decrease in aquatic insect abundance in exclusion reaches compared with control reaches. The overall density of riparian spiders was significantly positively correlated with aquatic insect abundances. Horizontal orb weavers (Tetragnathidae) showed a strong response to aquatic insect reduction – abundance at exclosure sites was 57% lower than at control sites. Several spider families that have not been associated with tracking aquatic insect subsidies also showed significantly decreased abundance when aquatic insects were reduced. 4 This result is contrary to predictions of weak subsidy effects where recipient net primary productivity is high. These results suggest that predicting the importance of resource subsidies for food webs requires a focus on the relative abundance of subsidy materials in recipient and donor habitats and not simply on the total flux of energy between systems.

Published
2007
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34. META-ANALYSIS: TROPHIC LEVEL, HABITAT, AND PRODUCTIVITY SHAPE THE FOOD WEB EFFECTS OF RESOURCE SUBSIDIES

Author

John S. Richardson, Ross M. Thompson, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
Food Chain, Cobble, Ecology, Consumer response, fungi, Spiders, Subsidy, Models, Biological, Food web, Birds, Geography, Habitat, Spatial ecology, Animals, Ecosystem, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Trophic level
Abstract

Studies of the effects of cross-habitat resource subsidies have been a feature of food web ecology over the past decade. To date, most studies have focused on demonstrating the magnitude of a subsidy or documenting its effect in the recipient habitat. Ecologists have yet to develop a satisfactory framework for predicting the magnitude of these effects. We used 115 data sets from 32 studies to compare consumer responses to resource subsidies across recipient habitat type, trophic level, and functional group. Changes in consumer density or biomass in response to subsidies were inconsistent across habitats, trophic, and functional groups. Responses in stream cobble bar and coastline habitats were larger than in other habitats. Contrary to expectation, the magnitude of consumer response was not affected by recipient habitat productivity or the ratio of productivity between donor and recipient habitats. However, consumer response was significantly related to the ratio of subsidy resources to equivalent resources in the recipient habitat. Broad contrasts in productivity are modified by subsidy type, vector, and the physical and biotic characteristics of both donor and recipient habitats. For this reason, the ratio of subsidy to equivalent resources is a more useful tool for predicting the possible effect of a subsidy than coarser contrasts of in situ productivity. The commonness of subsidy effects suggests that many ecosystems need to be studied as open systems.

Published
2007
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36. Mortality in Children and Adolescents, 1990-2013

Author

Kevin O’Rourke, Laurie B. Marczak, and Dawn Shepard

Subjects
Burden of disease, Age groups, business.industry, Mortality rate, Medicine, Developing country, General Medicine, Sudden infant death syndrome, business, Developed country, World health, Demography, Cause of death
Abstract

This Visualizing Health Metrics infographic, based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, provides information on mortality for children and adolescents from four age groups, including both sexes, from 1990 to 2013. The top causes of death in developed versus developing countries, as well as mortality rates by World Health Organization (WHO) region, are illustrated. In developed countries in 2013, the top cause of death for children under 1 was congenital anomalies, while in developing countries it was preterm birth complications. Sudden infant death syndrome was the fifth-highest cause of death for children under 1 in developed countries. In contrast, road injuries ranked highly across several age groups in both developed and developing countries. From 1990- 2013, mortality rates for children and adolescents declined in every WHO region. However, disparities in mortality rates persisted across WHO regions. Notably, mortality rates in the African region remained the highest relative to all other regions for every year from 1990 to 2013.

Published
2016
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38. Latitudinal variation in top-down and bottom-up control of a salt marsh food web

Author

Robert F. Denno, Chuan-Kai Ho, Steven C. Pennings, Kazimierz Więski, Huy D. Vu, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
Herbivore, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Food Chain, biology, Ecology, Brachyura, Iva frutescens, Climate, Spiders, Feeding Behavior, Asteraceae, biology.organism_classification, Food web, Predation, Coleoptera, Mesopredator release hypothesis, Salt marsh, Aphids, Wetlands, Animals, Trophic cascade, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Overwintering
Abstract

The shrub Iva frutescens, which occupies the terrestrial border of U.S. Atlantic Coast salt marshes, supports a food web that varies strongly across latitude. We tested whether latitudinal variation in plant quality (higher at high latitudes), consumption by omnivores (a crab, present only at low latitudes), consumption by mesopredators (ladybugs, present at all latitudes), or the life history stage of an herbivorous beetle could explain continental-scale field patterns of herbivore density. In a mesocosm experiment, crabs exerted strong top-down control on herbivorous beetles, ladybugs exerted strong top-down control on aphids, and both predators benefited plants through trophic cascades. Latitude of plant origin had no effect on consumers. Herbivorous beetle density was greater if mesocosms were stocked with beetle adults rather than larvae, and aphid densities were reduced in the "adult beetle" treatment. Treatment combinations representing high and low latitudes produced patterns of herbivore density similar to those in the field. We conclude that latitudinal variation in plant quality is less important than latitudinal variation in top consumers and competition in mediating food web structure. Climate may also play a strong role in structuring high-latitude salt marshes by limiting the number of herbivore generations per growing season and causing high overwintering mortality.

Published
2011

39. Riparian forest composition affects stream litter decomposition despite similar microbial and invertebrate communities

Author

John S. Richardson, John S. Kominoski, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
Biomass (ecology), geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Bacteria, Ecology, Biodiversity, Biology, Plant litter, Invertebrates, Trees, Biodegradation, Environmental, Rivers, Litter, Riparian forest, Animals, Ecosystem, Species richness, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Riparian zone
Abstract

Cross-boundary flows of energy and nutrients link biodiversity and functioning in adjacent ecosystems. The composition of forest tree species can affect the structure and functioning of stream ecosystems due to physical and chemical attributes, as well as changes in terrestrial resource subsidies. We examined how variation in riparian canopy composition (coniferous, deciduous, mixed) affects adjacent trophic levels (invertebrate and microbial consumers) and decomposition of organic matter in small, coastal rainforest streams in southwestern British Columbia. Breakdown rates of higher-quality red alder (Alnus rubra) litter were faster in streams with a greater percentage of deciduous than coniferous riparian canopy, whereas breakdown rates of lower-quality western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) litter were independent of riparian forest composition. When invertebrates were excluded using fine mesh, breakdown rates of both litter species were an order of magnitude less and were not significantly affected by riparian forest composition. Stream invertebrate and microbial communities were similar among riparian forest composition, with most variation attributed to leaf litter species. Invertebrate taxa richness and shredder biomass were higher in A. rubra litter; however, taxa evenness was greatest for T. heterophylla litter and both litter species in coniferous streams. Microbial community diversity (determined from terminal restriction fragment length polymorphisms) was unaffected by riparian forest or litter species. Fungal allele richness was higher than bacterial allele richness, and microbial communities associated with lower-quality T. heterophylla litter had higher diversity (allele uniqueness and richness) than those associated with higher-quality A. rubra litter. Percent variation in breakdown rates was mostly attributed to riparian forest composition in the presence of invertebrates and microbes; however, stream consumer biodiversity at adjacent trophic levels did not explain these patterns. Riparian and stream ecosystems and their biotic communities are linked through exchange and decomposition of detrital resources, and we provide evidence that riparian forest composition affects stream ecosystem catabolism despite similarities in microbial and invertebrate communities.

Published
2011

40. Are forested buffers an effective conservation strategy for riparian fauna? An assessment using meta-analysis

Author

Laurie B. Marczak, John S. Richardson, Takashi Sakamaki, Isabelle Deguise, Sylvia L. R. Wood, and Shannon L. Turvey

Subjects
geography, Conservation of Natural Resources, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Aquatic ecosystem, Buffer strip, Trees, Habitat, Rivers, Abundance (ecology), Water Movements, Water Pollution, Chemical, Riparian forest, Environmental science, Animals, Species richness, Relative species abundance, Riparian zone
Abstract

Historically, forested riparian buffers have been created to provide protection for aquatic organisms and aquatic ecosystem functions. Increasingly, new and existing riparian buffers are being used also to meet terrestrial conservation requirements. To test the effectiveness of riparian buffers for conserving terrestrial fauna, we conducted a meta-analysis using published data from 397 comparisons of species abundance in riparian buffers and unharvested (reference) riparian sites. The response of terrestrial species to riparian buffers was not consistent between taxonomic groups; bird and arthropod abundances were significantly greater in buffers relative to unharvested areas, whereas amphibian abundance decreased. Edge-preferring species were more abundant in buffer sites than reference sites, whereas species associated with interior habitat were not significantly different in abundance. The degree of buffer effect on animal abundance was unrelated to buffer width; wider buffers did not result in greater similarity between reference and buffer sites. However, responses to buffer treatment were more variable in buffers

Published
2010

41. The mutualism-parasitism continuum in ectomycorrhizas: a quantitative assessment using meta-analysis

Author

Laurie B. Marczak, Roy Turkington, Justine Karst, and Melanie D. Jones

Subjects
Mutualism (biology), Abiotic component, Time Factors, biology, Ecology, Parasitism, Interspecific competition, Plants, biology.organism_classification, Ectomycorrhiza, Soil, Symbiosis, Mycorrhizae, Botany, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Colonization, Mycorrhiza, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract

Context dependency is deemed to position the outcomes of species interactions along a continuum of mutualism to parasitism. Thus, it is imperative to understand which factors determine where a particular interspecific interaction falls along the continuum. Over the past 20 years research on the ectomycorrhizal symbiosis has resulted in sufficient independent studies to now generalize about the factors and mechanisms that affect host response to ectomycorrhizas. Using meta-analysis we quantitatively evaluated the role of biotic (partner identity and colonization levels of ectomycorrhizal fungi) and abiotic (phosphorus levels) factors in determining host biomass, height, and shoot : root responses to ectomycorrhizal associations. On average, seedlings across multiple host genera increased in total biomass when inoculated with ectomycorrhizal fungi regardless of the identity of the fungal associate; host genera differed in the magnitude of response for both total biomass and shoot : root ratio. Association with different fungal genera modified only host allocation of biomass to shoots and roots. Neither level of colonization on inoculated seedlings nor the level of contamination on control seedlings relative to colonization levels by target fungi on inoculated seedlings was important in explaining variation in effect sizes for any growth response. None of our proposed factors (identity of partners, colonization level, magnitude of contamination, or duration of association) explained variation in effect sizes for shoot height, although in general seedlings were taller when inoculated with ectomycorrhizal fungi. Phosphorus additions did not influence effect sizes. Although the general trend across studies was for a positive response of hosts to ectomycorrhizal inoculation, publication bias and methodological issues effectively reduce and distort the spectrum on which we evaluate host responses to ectomycorrhizal inoculation. Our results indicate that the variation in ectomycorrhizal fungi perceived by the host may be of a discrete (presence/absence of ectomycorrhizal fungi) rather than continuous nature (variation in identity or abundance of ectomycorrhizal fungi).

Published
2008

42. Geographic Variation in Plant Community Structure of Salt Marshes: Species, Functional and Phylogenetic Perspectives

Author

Alana-Rose Lynes, Emily M. Zelig, Niv Sabath, Inder Jalli, Hongyu Guo, Eran Elhaik, Amy Vargas, Kazimierz Więski, Scott Chamberlain, Steven C. Pennings, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
Salinity, Georgia, Lineage (evolution), lcsh:Medicine, Wetland, Biology, Species Specificity, Ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, lcsh:Science, Phylogeny, Distance decay, geography, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Geography, Phylogenetic tree, Ecology, lcsh:R, Species diversity, Plant community, Plants, 15. Life on land, Texas, Wetlands, Salt marsh, Linear Models, lcsh:Q, Research Article
Abstract

In general, community similarity is thought to decay with distance; however, this view may be complicated by the relative roles of different ecological processes at different geographical scales, and by the compositional perspective (e.g. species, functional group and phylogenetic lineage) used. Coastal salt marshes are widely distributed worldwide, but no studies have explicitly examined variation in salt marsh plant community composition across geographical scales, and from species, functional and phylogenetic perspectives. Based on studies in other ecosystems, we hypothesized that, in coastal salt marshes, community turnover would be more rapid at local versus larger geographical scales; and that community turnover patterns would diverge among compositional perspectives, with a greater distance decay at the species level than at the functional or phylogenetic levels. We tested these hypotheses in salt marshes of two regions: The southern Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. We examined the characteristics of plant community composition at each salt marsh site, how community similarity decayed with distance within individual salt marshes versus among sites in each region, and how community similarity differed among regions, using species, functional and phylogenetic perspectives. We found that results from the three compositional perspectives generally showed similar patterns: there was strong variation in community composition within individual salt marsh sites across elevation; in contrast, community similarity decayed with distance four to five orders of magnitude more slowly across sites within each region. Overall, community dissimilarity of salt marshes was lowest on the southern Atlantic Coast, intermediate on the Gulf Coast, and highest between the two regions. Our results indicated that local gradients are relatively more important than regional processes in structuring coastal salt marsh communities. Our results also suggested that in ecosystems with low species diversity, functional and phylogenetic approaches may not provide additional insight over a species-based approach.

Published
2015
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43. Life History Phenology and Sediment Size Association of the Dragonfly Cordulegaster dorsalis (Odonata: Cordulegastridae) in an Ephemeral Habitat in Southwestern British Columbia

Author

John S. Richardson, Marie-Claire Classen, and Laurie B. Marczak

Subjects
Larva, Cordulegaster dorsalis, Habitat, Phenology, Ecology, fungi, Cordulegastridae, Instar, Biology, biology.organism_classification, Dragonfly, Odonata, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract

The life cycle of the dragonfly Cordulegaster dorsalis was studied over one year by systematic sampling of larvae in three intermittent headwater streams in southwestern British Columbia. We determined that larvae normally take three years to reach maturity, emerging throughout July and August. There is limited evidence suggesting a split cohort development, with early emergence after two years. Additionally, we tested whether larval instars were distributed randomly or if they occupied different sediment microhabitats. Smaller animals tend to be associated with smaller grained organic sediments, although there was high variation between the streams.

Published
2006
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44. META-ANALYSIS: TROPHIC LEVEL, HABITAT, AND PRODUCTIVITY SHAPE THE FOOD WEB EFFECTS OF RESOURCE SUBSIDIES.

Author

Laurie B. Marczak, Thompson, Ross M., and Richardson, John S.

Subjects
*HABITATS, *FOOD chains, *ECOLOGISTS, *BIOMASS, *FUNCTIONAL groups, *META-analysis, *BIOLOGICAL productivity, *SPATIAL ecology, *ECOLOGY
Abstract

Studies of the effects of cross-habitat resource subsidies have been a feature of food web ecology over the past decade. To date, most studies have focused on demonstrating the magnitude of a subsidy or documenting its effect in the recipient habitat. Ecologists have yet to develop a satisfactory framework for predicting the magnitude of these effects. We used 115 data sets from 32 studies to compare consumer responses to resource subsidies across recipient habitat type, trophic level, and functional group. Changes in consumer density or biomass in response to subsidies were inconsistent across habitats, trophic, and functional groups. Responses in stream cobble bar and coastline habitats were larger than in other habitats. Contrary to expectation, the magnitude of consumer response was not affected by recipient habitat productivity or the ratio of productivity between donor and recipient habitats. However, consumer response was significantly related to the ratio of subsidy resources to equivalent resources in the recipient habitat. Broad contrasts in productivity are modified by subsidy type, vector, and the physical and biotic characteristics of both donor and recipient habitats. For this reason, the ratio of subsidy to equivalent resources is a more useful tool for predicting the possible effect of a subsidy than coarser contrasts of in situ productivity. The commonness of subsidy effects suggests that many ecosystems need to be studied as open systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2007
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45. Prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections of children in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis

Author

Benn Sartorius, PhD, Jorge Cano, PhD, Hope Simpson, MSc, Lucy S Tusting, PhD, Laurie B Marczak, PhD, Molly K Miller-Petrie, PhD, Boniface Kinvi, MSc, Honorat Zoure, MSc, Pauline Mwinzi, PhD, Simon I Hay, ProfDSc, Maria Rebollo, MD, and Rachel L Pullan, PhD

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Summary: Background: Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets. Methods: We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space–time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5–14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018. Findings: We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5–14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 [79%] of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Interpretation: Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2021
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