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With recent computer vision techniques and user-generated content, we can augment the physical world with metadata that describes attributes, such as names, geo-locations, and visual features of physical objects. To assess the benefits of these potentially ubiquitous labels for foreign vocabulary learning, we built a proof-of-concept system that displays bilingual text and sound labels on physical objects outdoors using augmented reality. Established tools for language learning have focused on effective content delivery methods such as books and flashcards. However, recent research and consumer learning tools have begun to focus on how learning can become more mobile, ubiquitous, and desirable. To test whether our system supports vocabulary learning, we conducted a preliminary between-subjects (N=44) study. Our results indicate that participants preferred learning with virtual labels on real-world objects outdoors over learning with flashcards. Our findings motivate further investigation into mobile AR-based learning systems in outdoor settings.

We investigate deformations of skew group algebras that arise from a finite cyclic group acting on a polynomial ring in positive characteristic, where characteristic divides the order of the group. We allow deformations which deform both the group action and the vector space multiplication. We fully characterize the Poincare-Birkhoff-Witt deformations which arise in this setting from multiple perspectives: a necessary and sufficient condition list, a practical road map from which one can generate examples corresponding to any choice of group algebra element, an explicit formula, and a combinatorial analysis of the class of algebras.

Equivariant neural networks have shown great success in reinforcement learning, improving sample efficiency and generalization when there is symmetry in the task. However, in many problems, only approximate symmetry is present, which makes imposing exact symmetry inappropriate. Recently, approximately equivariant networks have been proposed for supervised classification and modeling physical systems. In this work, we develop approximately equivariant algorithms in reinforcement learning (RL). We define approximately equivariant MDPs and theoretically characterize the effect of approximate equivariance on the optimal Q function. We propose novel RL architectures using relaxed group convolutions and experiment on several continuous control domains and stock trading with real financial data. Our results demonstrate that approximate equivariance matches prior work when exact symmetries are present, and outperforms them when domains exhibit approximate symmetry. As an added byproduct of these techniques, we observe increased robustness to noise at test time., Comment: Preprint

Quantifying uncertainty in networks is an important step in modelling relationships and interactions between entities. We consider the challenge of bootstrapping an inhomogeneous random graph when only a single observation of the network is made and the underlying data generating function is unknown. We utilise an exchangeable network test that can empirically validate bootstrap samples generated by any method, by testing if the observed and bootstrapped networks are statistically distinguishable. We find that existing methods fail this test. To address this, we propose a principled, novel, distribution-free network bootstrap using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, that can regularly pass this exchangeable network test in both synthetic and real-data scenarios. We demonstrate the utility of this work in combination with the popular data visualisation method t-SNE, where uncertainty estimates from bootstrapping are used to explain whether visible structures represent real statistically sound structures.

Communicating forecast uncertainty effectively is a persistent challenge in predictive endeavours such as weather forecasting. This paper explores the application of possibility theory as a complementary approach to traditional probability in risk communication. Unlike probability, possibility theory allows for the representation of uncertain events as ranges of potential, distinguished by degrees of plausibility possibility and certainty necessity. Using a simplified fuzzy-logic inference system, we generate possibility forecasts of ozone-concentration forecasts from meteorological inputs. Observations are pre-processed as degrees of an adjective, e.g., 1 m/s wind speed may belong to the adjective "calm" at degree 0.8 (perhaps represented with an adverb as "substantially"). Aggregation of all rule activations yields a possibility distribution over the output range. As possibility is an upper bound of probability, possibilities provides most value for risk-averse stakeholders sensitive to the event of interest, especially near the event's predictability horizon when there is most uncertainty to remove. By setting the forecast challenge as the possibility of an event, we effectively extend the predictability horizon: trading some specificity for detection of fainter signals of the event's future occurrence. Possibility theory appreciates uncertainty's dual nature: inherent randomness (aleatoric) and knowledge deficiency (epistemic). While the unfamiliar nature of the theory requires more accessible language before operational use and public communication, possibility offers substantial practical benefits for assessment of uncertainty at the edge of predictability limits for vulnerable users., Comment: 9 Figures, 15 Pages, unsubmitted as of 28 Oct 2024

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has the potential to enable robots to learn from their own actions in the real world. Unfortunately, RL can be prohibitively expensive, in terms of on-robot runtime, due to inefficient exploration when learning from a sparse reward signal. Designing dense reward functions is labour-intensive and requires domain expertise. In our work, we propose GCR (Goal-Contrastive Rewards), a dense reward function learning method that can be trained on passive video demonstrations. By using videos without actions, our method is easier to scale, as we can use arbitrary videos. GCR combines two loss functions, an implicit value loss function that models how the reward increases when traversing a successful trajectory, and a goal-contrastive loss that discriminates between successful and failed trajectories. We perform experiments in simulated manipulation environments across RoboMimic and MimicGen tasks, as well as in the real world using a Franka arm and a Spot quadruped. We find that GCR leads to a more-sample efficient RL, enabling model-free RL to solve about twice as many tasks as our baseline reward learning methods. We also demonstrate positive cross-embodiment transfer from videos of people and of other robots performing a task. Appendix: \url{https://tinyurl.com/gcr-appendix-2}.

We present results from data acquired by the SENSEI experiment at SNOLAB after a major upgrade in May 2023, which includes deploying 16 new sensors and replacing the copper trays that house the CCDs with a new light-tight design. We observe a single-electron event rate of $(1.39 \pm 0.11) \times 10^{-5}$ e$^-$/pix/day, corresponding to $(39.8 \pm 3.1)$ e$^-$/gram/day. This is an order-of-magnitude improvement compared to the previous lowest single-electron rate in a silicon detector and the lowest for any photon detector in the near-infrared-ultraviolet range. We use these data to obtain a 90% confidence level upper bound of $1.53 \times 10^{-5}$ e$^-$/pix/day and to set constraints on sub-GeV dark matter candidates that produce single-electron events. We hypothesize that the data taken at SNOLAB in the previous run, with an older tray design for the sensors, contained a larger rate of single-electron events due to light leaks. We test this hypothesis using data from the SENSEI detector located in the MINOS cavern at Fermilab.

We analyze near-infrared integral field spectropolarimetry of the AB Aurigae protoplanetary disk and protoplanet (AB Aur b), obtained with SCExAO/CHARIS in 22 wavelength channels covering the J, H, and K passbands ($\lambda_{\rm o}$ = 1.1--2.4 $\mu m$) over angular separations of $\rho$ $\approx$ 0.13" to 1.1" ($\sim$20--175 au). Our images resolve spiral structures in the disk in each CHARIS channel. At the longest wavelengths, the data may reveal an extension of the western spiral seen in previous polarimetric data at $\rho$ $<$ 0.3" out to larger distances clockwise from the protoplanet AB Aur b, coincident with the ALMA-detected $CO$ gas spiral. While AB Aur b is detectable in complementary total intensity data, it is a non-detection in polarized light at $\lambda$ $>$ 1.3 $\mu $m. While the observed disk color is extremely red across $JHK$, the disk has a blue intrinsic scattering color consistent with small dust grains. The disk's polarization spectrum is redder than AB Aur b's total intensity spectrum. The polarization fraction peaks at $\sim$ 0.6 along the major disk axis. Radiative transfer modeling of the CHARIS data shows that small, porous dust grains with a porosity of $p$ = 0.6--0.8 better reproduce the scattered-light appearance of the disk than more compact spheres ($p$ = 0.3), especially the polarization fraction. This work demonstrates the utility of integral field spectropolarimetry to characterize structures in protoplanetary disks and elucidate the properties of the disks' dust., Comment: 23 pages, 17 Figures, accepted to AAS Journals

The first FASER search for a light, long-lived particle decaying into a pair of photons is reported. The search uses LHC proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=13.6~\text{TeV}$ collected in 2022 and 2023, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $57.7\text{fb}^{-1}$. A model with axion-like particles (ALPs) dominantly coupled to weak gauge bosons is the primary target. Signal events are characterised by high-energy deposits in the electromagnetic calorimeter and no signal in the veto scintillators. One event is observed, compared to a background expectation of $0.44 \pm 0.39$ events, which is entirely dominated by neutrino interactions. World-leading constraints on ALPs are obtained for masses up to $300~\text{MeV}$ and couplings to the Standard Model W gauge boson, $g_{aWW}$, around $10^{-4}$ GeV$^{-1}$, testing a previously unexplored region of parameter space. Other new particle models that lead to the same experimental signature, including ALPs coupled to gluons or photons, U(1)$_B$ gauge bosons, up-philic scalars, and a Type-I two-Higgs doublet model, are also considered for interpretation, and new constraints on previously viable parameter space are presented in this paper., Comment: 37 pages, 22 figures

We introduce LLMD, a large language model designed to analyze a patient's medical history based on their medical records. Along with domain knowledge, LLMD is trained on a large corpus of records collected over time and across facilities, as well as tasks and labels that make nuanced connections among them. This approach is critical to an accurate picture of patient health, and has distinctive advantages over models trained on knowledge alone, unlabeled records, structured EHR data, or records from a single health system. The recipe for LLMD continues pretraining a foundational model on both domain knowledge and the contents of millions of records. These span an average of 10 years of care and as many as 140 care sites per patient. LLMD is then instruction fine-tuned on structuring and abstraction tasks. The former jointly identify and normalize document metadata, provenance information, clinical named-entities, and ontology mappings, while the latter roll these into higher-level representations, such a continuous era of time a patient was on a medication. LLMD is deployed within a layered validation system that includes continual random audits and review by experts, e.g. based on uncertainty, disease-specific rules, or use-case. LLMD exhibits large gains over both more-powerful generalized models and domain-specific models. On medical knowledge benchmarks, LLMD-8B achieves state of the art accuracy on PubMedQA text responses, besting orders-of-magnitude larger models. On production tasks, we show that LLMD significantly outperforms all other models evaluated, and among alternatives, large general purpose LLMs like GPT-4o are more accurate than models emphasizing medical knowledge. We find strong evidence that accuracy on today's medical benchmarks is not the most significant factor when analyzing real-world patient data, an insight with implications for future medical LLMs.'

We introduce a operation on categories enriched in filtered spaces, whose effect is to turn categories of $E_1$-pages into categories of $E_2$-pages. This allows us to give a homotopical versions of several results that were previously implemented using $E_2$-model structures or more sophisticated machinery in higher algebra. We find that we can recover the homotopy theory of spaces from this page-turning operation on the homotopy theory of CW-complexes and filtration-shifting maps, a version of the cellular approximation theorem. In the category of filtered spectra, we show that this implements the procedure on filtered spectra sending the homotopy exact couple to its associated derived couple. Finally, we recover Pstragowski's category of synthetic spectra from applying this page-turning operation to the category of filtered modules over a spectral version of the Rees ring., Comment: 48 pages. Comments welcome

We study the task of locating a user in a mapped indoor environment using natural language queries and images from the environment. Building on recent pretrained vision-language models, we learn a similarity score between text descriptions and images of locations in the environment. This score allows us to identify locations that best match the language query, estimating the user's location. Our approach is capable of localizing on environments, text, and images that were not seen during training. One model, finetuned CLIP, outperformed humans in our evaluation., Comment: RO-MAN 2023

Mixed Reality (MR) platforms enable users to interact with three-dimensional holographic instructions during the assembly and fabrication of highly custom and parametric architectural constructions without the necessity of two-dimensional drawings. Previous MR fabrication projects have primarily relied on digital menus and custom buttons as the interface for user interaction with the MR environment. Despite this approach being widely adopted, it is limited in its ability to allow for direct human interaction with physical objects to modify fabrication instructions within the MR environment. This research integrates user interactions with physical objects through real-time gesture recognition as input to modify, update or generate new digital information enabling reciprocal stimuli between the physical and the virtual environment. Consequently, the digital environment is generative of the user's provided interaction with physical objects to allow seamless feedback in the fabrication process. This research investigates gesture recognition for feedback-based MR workflows for robotic fabrication, human assembly, and quality control in the construction of the UnLog Tower., Comment: 16 pages, 16 figures. Published in the Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Design and Robotic Fabrication (CDRF) 2023

Classical point process models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, have been widely used for forecasting the event times and locations of earthquakes for decades. Recent advances have led to Neural Point Processes (NPPs), which promise greater flexibility and improvements over classical models. However, the currently-used benchmark dataset for NPPs does not represent an up-to-date challenge in the seismological community since it lacks a key earthquake sequence from the region and improperly splits training and testing data. Furthermore, initial earthquake forecast benchmarking lacks a comparison to state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting models typically used by the seismological community. To address these gaps, we introduce EarthquakeNPP: a collection of benchmark datasets to facilitate testing of NPPs on earthquake data, accompanied by a credible implementation of the ETAS model. The datasets cover a range of small to large target regions within California, dating from 1971 to 2021, and include different methodologies for dataset generation. In a benchmarking experiment, we compare three spatio-temporal NPPs against ETAS and find that none outperform ETAS in either spatial or temporal log-likelihood. These results indicate that current NPP implementations are not yet suitable for practical earthquake forecasting. However, EarthquakeNPP will serve as a platform for collaboration between the seismology and machine learning communities with the goal of improving earthquake predictability.

Fluid flows are intrinsically characterized via the topology and dynamics of underlying vortex lines. Turbulence in common fluids like water and air, mathematically described by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations (INSE), engenders spontaneous self-stretching and twisting of vortex lines, generating a complex hierarchy of structures. While the INSE are routinely used to describe turbulence, their regularity remains unproven; the implicit assumption being that the self-stretching is ultimately regularized by viscosity, preventing any singularities. Here, we uncover an inviscid regularizing mechanism stemming from self-stretching itself, by analyzing the flow topology as perceived by an observer aligned with the vorticity vector undergoing amplification. While, initially, vorticity amplification occurs via increasing twisting of vortex lines, a regularizing anti-twist spontaneously emerges to prevent unbounded growth. By isolating a vortex, we additionally demonstrate the genericity of this self-regularizing anti-twist. Our work, directly linking dynamics of vortices to turbulence statistics, reveals how the Navier-Stokes dynamics avoids the development of singularities even without the aid of viscosity., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures

High-performance programmable silicon photonic circuits are considered to be a critical part of next generation architectures for optical processing, photonic quantum circuits and neural networks. Low-loss optical phase change materials (PCMs) offer a promising route towards non-volatile free-form control of light. Here, we exploit direct-write digital patterning of waveguides using layers of the PCM Sb$_2$Se$_3$ with a thickness of up to 100 nm, demonstrating the ability to strongly increase the effect per pixel compared to previous implementations where much thinner PCM layers were used. We exploit the excellent refractive index matching between Sb$_2$Se$_3$ and silicon to achieve a low-loss hybrid platform for programmable photonics. A five-fold reduction in modulation length of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer is achieved compared to previous work using thin-film Sb$_2$Se$_3$ devices, decreased to 5 $\mu$m in this work. Application of the thicker PCM layers in direct-write digital programming of a multimode interferometer (MMI) shows a three-fold reduction of the number of programmed pixels to below 10 pixels per device. The demonstrated scaling of performance with PCM layer thickness is important for establishing the optimum working range for hybrid silicon-PCM devices and holds promise for achieving ultracompact programmable photonic circuits., Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures

We describe the motivation, design, and early results for our 42-night, 125 star Subaru/SCExAO direct imaging survey for planets around accelerating stars. Unlike prior large surveys, ours focuses only on stars showing evidence for an astrometric acceleration plausibly due to the dynamical pull of an unseen planet or brown dwarf. Our program is motivated by results from a recent pilot program that found the first planet jointly discovered from direct imaging and astrometry and resulted in a planet and brown dwarf discovery rate substantially higher than previous unbiased surveys like GPIES. The first preliminary results from our program reveal multiple new companions; discovered planets and brown dwarfs can be further characterized with follow-up data, including higher-resolution spectra. Finally, we describe the critical role this program plays in supporting the Roman Space Telescope Coronagraphic Instrument, providing a currently-missing list of targets suitable for the CGI technological demonstration without which the CGI tech demo risks failure., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures; Proc. SPIE in press

In this paper, we develop methods for calculating equivariant homology from equivariant Morse functions on a closed manifold with the action of a finite group. We show how to alter $G$-equivariant Morse functions to a stable one, where the descending manifold from a critical point $p$ has the same stabilizer group as $p$, giving a better-behaved cell structure on $M$. For an equivariant, stable Morse function, we show that a generic equivariant metric satisfies the Morse--Smale condition. In the process, we give a proof that a generic equivariant function is Morse, and that equivariant, stable Morse functions form a dense subset in the $C^0$-topology within the space of all equivariant functions. Finally, we give an expository account of equivariant homology and cohomology theories, as well as their interaction with Morse theory. We show that any equivariant Morse function gives a filtration of $M$ that induces a Morse spectral sequence, computing the equivariant homology of $M$ from information about how the stabilizer group of a critical point acts on its tangent space. In the case of a stable Morse function, we show that this can be further reduced to a Morse chain complex., Comment: 22 pages

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a promising approach to interpreting the internal representations of transformer language models. However, SAEs are usually trained separately on each transformer layer, making it difficult to use them to study how information flows across layers. To solve this problem, we introduce the multi-layer SAE (MLSAE): a single SAE trained on the residual stream activation vectors from every transformer layer. Given that the residual stream is understood to preserve information across layers, we expected MLSAE latents to `switch on' at a token position and remain active at later layers. Interestingly, we find that individual latents are often active at a single layer for a given token or prompt, but this layer may differ for different tokens or prompts. We quantify these phenomena by defining a distribution over layers and considering its variance. We find that the variance of the distributions of latent activations over layers is about two orders of magnitude greater when aggregating over tokens compared with a single token. For larger underlying models, the degree to which latents are active at multiple layers increases, which is consistent with the fact that the residual stream activation vectors at adjacent layers become more similar. Finally, we relax the assumption that the residual stream basis is the same at every layer by applying pre-trained tuned-lens transformations, but our findings remain qualitatively similar. Our results represent a new approach to understanding how representations change as they flow through transformers. We release our code to train and analyze MLSAEs at https://github.com/tim-lawson/mlsae., Comment: 34 pages, 26 figures

In randomized trials, the per-protocol effect, that is, the effect of being assigned a treatment strategy and receiving treatment according to the assigned strategy, is sometimes thought to reflect the effect of the treatment strategy itself, without intervention on assignment. Here, we argue by example that this is not necessarily the case. We examine a causal structure for a randomized trial where these two causal estimands -- the per-protocol effect and the effect of the treatment strategy -- are not equal, and where their corresponding identifying observed data functionals are not the same, but both require information on assignment for identification. Our example highlights the conceptual difference between the per-protocol effect and the effect of the treatment strategy itself, the conditions under which the observed data functionals for these estimands are equal, and suggests that in some cases their identification requires information on assignment, even when assignment is randomized. An implication of these findings is that in observational analyses that aim to emulate a target randomized trial in which an analog of assignment is well-defined, the effect of the treatment strategy is not necessarily an observational analog of the per-protocol effect. Furthermore, either of these effects may be unidentifiable without information on treatment assignment, unless one makes additional assumptions; informally, that assignment does not affect the outcome except through treatment (i.e., an exclusion-restriction assumption), and that assignment is not a confounder of the treatment outcome association conditional on other variables in the analysis.

We present Subaru/SCExAO + CHARIS broadband (JHK) integral field spectroscopy of HD 34700 A in polarized light. CHARIS has the unique ability to obtain polarized integral field images at 22 wavelength channels in broadband, as the incoming light is first split into different polarization states before passing though the lenslet array. We recover the transition disk around HD 34700 A in multiband polarized light in our data. We combine our polarized intensity data with previous total intensity data to examine the scattering profiles, scattering phase functions and polarized fraction of the disk at multiple wavelengths. We also carry out 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations of the disk using MCFOST, and make qualitative comparisons between our models and data to constrain dust grain properties. We find that in addition to micron-sized dust grains, a population of sub-micron grains is needed to match the surface brightness in polarized light and polarized fraction. This could indicate the existence of a population of small grains in the disk, or it could be caused by Mie theory simulations using additional small grains to compensate for sub-micron structures of real dust aggregates. We find models that match the polarized fraction of the data but the models do not apply strong constraints on the dust grain type or compositions. We find no models that can match all observed properties of the disk. More detailed modeling using realistic dust aggregates with irregular surfaces and complex structures is required to further constrain the dust properties.

Climate change not only threatens agricultural producers but also strains financial institutions. These important food system actors include government entities tasked with both insuring grower livelihoods and supporting response to continued global warming. We use an artificial neural network to predict future maize yields in the U.S. Corn Belt, finding alarming changes to institutional risk exposure within the Federal Crop Insurance Program. Specifically, our machine learning method anticipates more frequent and more severe yield losses that would result in the annual probability of Yield Protection (YP) claims to more than double at mid-century relative to simulations without continued climate change. Furthermore, our dual finding of relatively unchanged average yields paired with decreasing yield stability reveals targeted opportunities to adjust coverage formulas to include variability. This important structural shift may help regulators support grower adaptation to continued climate change by recognizing the value of risk-reducing strategies such as regenerative agriculture. Altogether, paired with open source interactive tools for deeper investigation, our risk profile simulations fill an actionable gap in current understanding, bridging granular historic yield estimation and climate-informed prediction of future insurer-relevant loss., Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures

The DArk Matter In CCDs at Modane (DAMIC-M) experiment is designed to search for light dark matter (m$_{\chi}$<10\,GeV/c$^2$) at the Laboratoire Souterrain de Modane (LSM) in France. DAMIC-M will use skipper charge-coupled devices (CCDs) as a kg-scale active detector target. Its single-electron resolution will enable eV-scale energy thresholds and thus world-leading sensitivity to a range of hidden sector dark matter candidates. A DAMIC-M prototype, the Low Background Chamber (LBC), has been taking data at LSM since 2022. The LBC provides a low-background environment, which has been used to characterize skipper CCDs, study dark current, and measure radiopurity of materials planned for DAMIC-M. It also allows testing of various subsystems like readout electronics, data acquisition software, and slow control. This paper describes the technical design and performance of the LBC.

Trial engagement effects are effects of trial participation on the outcome that are not mediated by treatment assignment. Most work on extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population has, explicitly or implicitly, assumed that trial engagement effects are absent, allowing evidence about the effects of the treatments examined in trials to be applied to non-experimental settings. Here, we define novel causal estimands and present identification results for generalizability and transportability analyses in the presence of trial engagement effects. Our approach allows for trial engagement effects under assumptions of no causal interaction between trial participation and treatment assignment on the absolute or relative scales. We show that under these assumptions, even in the presence of trial engagement effects, the trial data can be combined with covariate data from the target population to identify average treatment effects in the context of usual care as implemented in the target population (i.e., outside the experimental setting). The identifying observed data functionals under these no-interaction assumptions are the same as those obtained under the stronger identifiability conditions that have been invoked in prior work. Therefore, our results suggest a new interpretation for previously proposed generalizability and transportability estimators; this interpretation may be useful in analyses under causal structures where background knowledge suggests that trial engagement effects are present but interactions between trial participation and treatment are negligible.

Let ${\mathfrak g}$ be a Garding-Dirichlet operator on the set S(n) of symmetric $n\times n$ matrices. We assume that ${\mathfrak g}$ is $I$-central, that is, $D_I {\mathfrak g} = k I$ for some $k>0$. Then $$ {\mathfrak g}(A)^{1\over N} \ \geq\ {\mathfrak g}(I)^{1\over N} (\det\, A)^{1\over n} \qquad \forall\, A>0. $$ From work of Guo, Phong, Tong, Abja, Dinew, Olive and many others, this inequality has important applications.

The DCitizens SIG aims to navigate ethical dimensions in forthcoming Digital Civics projects, ensuring enduring benefits and community resilience. Additionally, it seeks to shape the future landscape of digital civics for ethical and sustainable interventions. As we dive into these interactive processes, a challenge arises of discerning authentic intentions and validating perspectives. This exploration extends to evaluating the sustainability of future interactions and scrutinising biases impacting engaged communities. The commitment is to ensure future outcomes align with genuine community needs and address the ethical imperative of a considerate departure strategy. This dialogue encourages future researchers and practitioners to integrate ethical considerations and community-centric principles, fostering a more sustainable and responsible approach to technology-driven interventions in future urban regeneration and beyond.

There is increasing interest in combining information from experimental studies, including randomized and single-group trials, with information from external experimental or observational data sources. Such efforts are usually motivated by the desire to compare treatments evaluated in different studies -- for instance, through the introduction of external treatment groups -- or to estimate treatment effects with greater precision. Proposals to combine experimental studies with external data were made at least as early as the 1970s, but in recent years have come under increasing consideration by regulatory agencies involved in drug and device evaluation, particularly with the increasing availability of rich observational data. In this paper, we describe basic templates of study designs and data structures for combining information from experimental studies with external data, and use the potential (counterfactual) outcomes framework to elaborate identification strategies for potential outcome means and average treatment effects in these designs. In formalizing designs and identification strategies for combining information from experimental studies with external data, we hope to provide a conceptual foundation to support the systematic use and evaluation of such efforts., Comment: First submission

The use of graph centrality measures applied to biological networks, such as protein interaction networks, underpins much research into identifying key players within biological processes. This approach however is restricted to dyadic interactions and it is well-known that in many instances interactions are polyadic. In this study we illustrate the merit of using hypergraph centrality applied to a hypernetwork as an alternative. Specifically, we review and propose an extension to a recently introduced node and edge nonlinear hypergraph centrality model which provides mutually dependent node and edge centralities. A Saccharomyces Cerevisiae protein complex hypernetwork is used as an example application with nodes representing proteins and hyperedges representing protein complexes. The resulting rankings of the nodes and edges are considered to see if they provide insight into the essentiality of the proteins and complexes. We find that certain variations of the model predict essentiality more accurately and that the degree-based variation illustrates that the centrality-lethality rule extends to a hypergraph setting. In particular, through exploitation of the models flexibility, we identify small sets of proteins densely populated with essential proteins. One of the key advantages of applying this model to a protein complex hypernetwork is that it also provides a classification method for protein complexes, unlike previous approaches which are only concerned with classifying proteins., Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures

Now in its fifth edition, the Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index (CRI) assesses the commitment of 164 countries and regions to fighting inequality. The CRI 2024 offers powerful new evidence on whether governments are acting to reduce inequality through policies on public services, fair taxation and labour rights. It reveals negative trends in the vast majority of countries since 2022. Four in five have cut the share of their budgets going to education, health and/or social protection; four in five have backtracked on progressive taxation; and nine in ten have regressed on labour rights and minimum wages. Nine out of ten countries have backtracked in one or more area, meaning without urgent policy actions to reverse this worrying trend, economic inequality will almost certainly continue to rise in 90% of countries., Despite some progress, the IMF and the World Bank could do far more to prioritize the fight to reduce inequality. This report assesses their actions across the three CRI pillars of public services, taxation and labour rights. It makes recommendations for how the IMF and World Bank should stop promoting policies that increase inequality and instead support those policies that reduce it, as a matter of urgency.

Self-reflection on learning experiences constitutes a fundamental cognitive process, essential for the consolidation of knowledge and the enhancement of learning efficacy. However, traditional methods to facilitate reflection often face challenges in personalization, immediacy of feedback, engagement, and scalability. Integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into the reflection process could mitigate these limitations. In this paper, we conducted two randomized field experiments in undergraduate computer science courses to investigate the potential of LLMs to help students engage in post-lesson reflection. In the first experiment (N=145), students completed a take-home assignment with the support of an LLM assistant; half of these students were then provided access to an LLM designed to facilitate self-reflection. The results indicated that the students assigned to LLM-guided reflection reported increased self-confidence and performed better on a subsequent exam two weeks later than their peers in the control condition. In the second experiment (N=112), we evaluated the impact of LLM-guided self-reflection against other scalable reflection methods, such as questionnaire-based activities and review of key lecture slides, after assignment. Our findings suggest that the students in the questionnaire and LLM-based reflection groups performed equally well and better than those who were only exposed to lecture slides, according to their scores on a proctored exam two weeks later on the same subject matter. These results underscore the utility of LLM-guided reflection and questionnaire-based activities in improving learning outcomes. Our work highlights that focusing solely on the accuracy of LLMs can overlook their potential to enhance metacognitive skills through practices such as self-reflection. We discuss the implications of our research for the Edtech community., Comment: Accepted at L@S'24

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are powerful black-box models which have shown impressive empirical performance. However, without any form of uncertainty quantification, it can be difficult to trust such models in high-risk scenarios. Conformal prediction aims to address this problem, however, an assumption of exchangeability is required for its validity which has limited its applicability to static graphs and transductive regimes. We propose to use unfolding, which allows any existing static GNN to output a dynamic graph embedding with exchangeability properties. Using this, we extend the validity of conformal prediction to dynamic GNNs in both transductive and semi-inductive regimes. We provide a theoretical guarantee of valid conformal prediction in these cases and demonstrate the empirical validity, as well as the performance gains, of unfolded GNNs against standard GNN architectures on both simulated and real datasets., Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures

We present the first JWST/NIRCam observations of the directly-imaged gas giant exoplanet $\beta$ Pic b. Observations in six filters using NIRCam's round coronagraphic masks provide a high signal-to-noise detection of $\beta$ Pic b and the archetypal debris disk around $\beta$ Pic over a wavelength range of $\sim$1.7-5 $\mu$m. This paper focuses on the detection of $\beta$ Pic b and other potential point sources in the NIRCam data, following a paper by Rebollido et al. which presented the NIRCam and MIRI view of the debris disk around $\beta$ Pic. We develop and validate approaches for obtaining accurate photometry of planets in the presence of bright, complex circumstellar backgrounds. By simultaneously fitting the planet's PSF and a geometric model for the disk, we obtain planet photometry that is in good agreement with previous measurements from the ground. The NIRCam data supports the cloudy nature of $\beta$ Pic b's atmosphere and the discrepancy between its mass as inferred from evolutionary models and the dynamical mass reported in the literature. We further identify five additional localized sources in the data, but all of them are found to be background stars or galaxies based on their color or spatial extent. We can rule out additional planets in the disk midplane above 1 Jupiter mass outward of 2 arcsec ($\sim$40 au) and away from the disk midplane above 0.05 Jupiter masses outward of 4 arcsec ($\sim$80 au). The inner giant planet $\beta$ Pic c remains undetected behind the coronagraphic masks of NIRCam in our observations., Comment: 30 pages, 14 figures, published in AJ

Planetary rovers can use onboard data analysis to adapt their measurement plan on the fly, improving the science value of data collected between commands from Earth. This paper describes the implementation of an adaptive sampling algorithm used by PIXL, the X-ray fluorescence spectrometer of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover. PIXL is deployed using the rover arm to measure X-ray spectra of rocks with a scan density of several thousand points over an area of typically 5 x 7 mm. The adaptive sampling algorithm is programmed to recognize points of interest and to increase the signal-to-noise ratio at those locations by performing longer integrations. Two approaches are used to formulate the sampling rules based on past quantification data: 1) Expressions that isolate particular regions within a ternary compositional diagram, and 2) Machine learning rules that threshold for a high weight percent of particular compounds. The design of the rulesets are outlined and the performance of the algorithm is quantified using measurements from the surface of Mars. To our knowledge, PIXL's adaptive sampling represents the first autonomous decision-making based on real-time compositional analysis by a spacecraft on the surface of another planet., Comment: 24 pages including 11 figures and 7 tables. Submitted for publication to the journal Icarus