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This paper studies for the first time the links between interbank liability and equity markets (financial exposure), and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the European banking sector, both at the micro and macro level. Using a binary logit model, the paper first examines - at the micro level - how financial exposures between banks affect the probability of M&A. It finds that financial interlinkages significantly increase the chances of them taking place. Using a gravity model, the paper then investigates - at the macro level - whether the micro results hold. Not only do financial links are positively and significantly correlated with the number of M&As between countries, but they are also a better predictor than trade - traditionally used in the macro literature on M&A. Since the Capital Market Union would help to geographically diversify banks' portfolio, it would therefore also foster cross-border M&As. Finally, the paper builds a M&A compatibility index for each pair of EU countries. The study highlights strong M&As prospects linked to high financial interlinkages in core Europe, which could be the sign of a future asymmetrical financial integration in the EU.

This paper studies the bilateral drivers of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) between European banks. Two findings document that banks use M&A as a device to leverage their expertise rather than to diversify. (i) Following the literature on matrimonial matching by using a binary logit model, the paper examines how the structure of acquiring banks in terms of geographical location (headquarters and subsidiaries) influences the choice of targeted banks for an M&A transaction. It finds that banks favour domestic expansion over international diversification. (ii) The paper investigates how the business model of acquiring banks determines their selection of targeted banks. Very often, banks tend to target counterparts with the same business model or, to a lesser extent, those with the same business model as one of their subsidiaries.

The consensus back in 2008 - ten years after the introduction of the euro - was that the adoption of a common currency had made a limited impact of around 2% in total on the trade flows of the first wave of euro area countries (Baldwin et al., 2008). Since then, six more countries have joined the euro area, and firms have internationalised their production processes. These two phenomena are interrelated and may have changed the way the common currency affects the euro area economy. Therefore, with the common currency now into its third decade - and with more countries queuing to adopt it - this paper revisits the trade effects of the euro, focusing on the newer euro adopters (i.e. those countries that have adopted the euro since 2007) and their interaction with the first wave of euro area members via supply chains. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, it revisits the estimated aggregate impact of the euro on euro area trade, as well as on trade within and between the two waves of adopters. Data on bilateral flows between 1990 and 2015 for an extended sample of countries to estimate a gravity equation indicate a significant trade impact, ranging between 4.3% and 6.3% in total on average, with the magnitude being the highest for exports from the second wave of adopters to the first wave of adopters. If a synthetic control approach (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010) is used instead, the estimated gains associated with euro adoption are greater. In particular, exports of both intermediate and final products from countries belonging to the first wave of euro adopters to those belonging to the second wave are estimated to have increased by about 30% using this approach. The second contribution made by this paper relates to the channels through which trade might be affected by a currency union. This question is explored by looking separately at trade in intermediate goods and final products. While we find that trade gains were mainly driven by trade in intermediate goods among countries that adopted the currency earlier (5.3%), our results also show that the euro had a positive effect on the exports of final products from the second wave of adopters to other euro area countries. This effect is as high as 10.6% with the gravity model and 32% with the synthetic control approach. One of the reasons for the difference in the range of estimates between the two approaches might be that the gravity model can control for unobserved characteristics via fixed effects, while the synthetic control approach may fail to do so. These results suggest that the euro facilitated the establishment and expansion of international production chains in Europe. In turn, this is likely to have increased business cycle synchronisation in the euro area and to have supported market access for later adopters.

This thesis studies international trade, monetary policy and international macroeconomics. Chapter 1 examines the different characteristics of different fixed exchange rate regimes and assesses the effects of each of these characteristics on international trade. It appears that price transparency and transaction costs linked to the currency changes do not have a significant effect on trade; only the credibility of the fixed exchange rate regime (due to the absence of devaluation possibilities) increases trade significantly. This explains why only monetary union increases trade between its members from the first years of the exchange rate regime. Chapter 2 looks at the effects of the euro on trade during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.It seems that the euro amortized the trade drop observed throughout the world, owing to the absence of exchange rate volatility among its members. Chapter 3 presents a theoretical model to study the transmission of shocks in a vertically specialized economy, and proposes an optimal monetary policy to stabilize the economy. The model promotes symmetrical monetary policies between the two countries sharing a production mode based on global value chains.; Cette thèse relève du commerce international, des politiques monétaires et de macroéconomie internationale. Le premier chapitre étudie les différentes caractéristiques des différents régimes de change fixe et évalue les effets de chacune de ces caractéristiques sur le commerce international. Il apparaît que la transparence des prix et les coûts de transaction liés au changement de monnaie n’ont pas d’effet significatif sur le commerce, seule la crédibilité du régime de change fixe (liée à l’absence de possibilité de dévaluation) augmente significativement le commerce. Cela explique pourquoi seule l’union monétaire augmente le commerce entre ses membres dès les premières années du régime de change. Le second chapitre s’intéresse aux effets de l’euro sur le commerce pendant la crise financière de 2008-2009. Il apparaît que l’euro amortit la chute du commerce observée partout dans le monde, grâce à l’absence de volatilité du taux de change entre ses membres. Le troisième chapitre présente un modèle théorique permettant d’étudier la transmission des chocs dans une économie spécialisée verticalement, et propose une politique monétaire optimale pour stabiliser l’économie. Le modèle promeut des politiques monétaires symétriques entre les deux pays partageant un mode de production basé sur les chaînes globales de valeur.