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This paper summarizes the lessons learnt for the management of small pelagic fish from the case study of managing the international fishery on the Bay of Biscay anchovy. A constant catch regime ended up with a fishery crash and closure (2005–2009) after a series of recruitment failures. Precautionary advices had been disregarded due to their inability to predict the size of the population during the first half of the year when the major fishery takes place. The crash triggered the EU to develop a long-term management plan in 2008. In the absence of a recruitment indicator, biological risk was minimized through a close coupling between assessment, advice and management, changing the management year to start just after the spring surveys on adults. A major improvement arrived in 2014 by the incorporation of an early recruitment indicator from an autumn acoustic survey on juveniles. This allowed additional exploitation of the resource at similar risk levels. Accordingly, TACs are nowadays set after the recruit survey on a management calendar basis. The interactive collaboration between fishers, scientists, and managers allowed inclusion of the stakeholders’ preferences for a biomass-based catch bounded harvest strategy suitable for these valuable fisheries. This strategy allows catches between a minimum and maximum TAC level, to account for an economically viable minimum activity when approaching a minimum biomass threshold level, and for the limited market absorption capacity when exceeding an upper biomass threshold level, respectively. Such strategy was adopted by consensus and supposed a successful participatory process in fishery management., This work has been carried out with the financial support of the Basque Government (Agriculture and Fisheries Department) to the authors affiliated at AZTI, the European Commission through the STECF (Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries) meetings and the EU through the funding of several projects, as PRONE (Precautionary risk methodology in fisheries -- Contract No. 022589), CEVIS (Comparative Evaluations of Innovative Solutions in European fisheries management -- Contract No. 022686) and UNCOVER (Understanding the mechanisms of stock recovery -- Contract No. 022717). This is publication number 1149 from the Marine Research Division of AZTI.

Most of the methods developed for managing data-limited stocks have been designed for long-lived species and result in a poor performance when applied to short-lived fish due to their high interannual variability of stock size (IAV). We evaluate the performance of several catch rules in managing two typical short-lived fish (anchovy-like: characterized by high natural mortality, and hence, IAV, and full maturity at age 1; and sprat/sardine-like: with medium natural mortality and IAV, being fully mature at age 2). We followed the management strategy evaluation approach implemented in FLBEIA software to test several model-free harvest control rules, where the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is yearly modified according to the recent trends in an abundance index (n-over-m rules: means of the most recent n values over the precedent m ones). The performance of these rules was assessed across a range of settings, such as time-lags between the index availability and management implementation, and alternative restrictions on TACs’ interannual variability (the uncertainty caps, UC). Moreover, we evaluated the sensitivity of the rule performance to the operating model assumptions (stock type, productivity, recruitment variability and initial depletion level) and to the observation error of the index. In general, the shorter the lag between observations, advice and management, the bigger the catches and the smaller the biological risks. For in-year management, 1-over-m rules are reactive enough to stock fluctuations as to gradually reduce risks. The 1-over-2 rule with symmetric 80% UCs reduces catches and risks toward precautionary levels in about 10 years, faster than if applied unconstrained (i.e., without UC), whilst the ICES default 2-over-3 rule with symmetric 20% UC is not precautionary. We prove that unconstrained rules gradually reduce the fishing opportunities, with amplified effects with increasing IAV. This property explains the stronger reductions of catches and risks achieved for the anchovy compared to the sprat/sardine-like stocks for any rule and the balance between catches and risks as the index CV increases. However, to avoid unnecessary long-term losses of catches from such reduction properties, it is suggested that the rules should be applied provisionally until a better assessment and management system is set up.

Future scenarios of fish stocks and the impacts of climate variability and change on fisheries are critical to anticipate and minimize potential economic losses in this sector. In this study, we assessed the impact of recent sea warming and future climate change on anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, where sea surface temperature has increased in the last three decades. We analyzed the historical evolution of the anchovy spawning and built species distribution models that are projected under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. The historical analysis of anchovy spawning showed that spawning peak advanced at a rate of 5.5 days/decade from 1987 to 2015, and the gonadosomatic index (as proxy of spawning activity) generally increased, which might be associated to changes in phytoplankton abundance. In addition, the spawning area expanded and contracted depending on the total egg production. In the future, the overall anchovy egg abundance in the Bay of Biscay is expected to increase between 1.05 and 2.66-fold under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario by the mid and end-of-the-21st-century, respectively. Projected environmental changes are expected to induce an expansion of the spawning area (7.8% and 16.4% for mid- and end-of-the-century) and higher egg densities.

Global ocean warming, wave extreme events, and accelerating sea-level rise are challenges that coastal communities must address to anticipate damages in coming decades. The objective of this study is to undertake a time-series analysis of climate change (CC) indicators within the Bay of Biscay, including the Basque coast. We used an integrated and flexible methodology, based on Generalized Additive Mixed Models, to detect trends on 19 indicators (including marine physics, chemistry, atmosphere, hydrology, geomorphology, biodiversity, and commercial species). The results of 87 long-term time series analysed (~512,000 observations), in the last four decades, indicate four groups of climate regime shifts: 1) A gradual shift associated with CC starting in the 1980s, with a warming of the sea surface down to 100 m depth in the bay (0.10-0.25 °C per decade), increase in air temperature and insolation. This warming may have impacted on benthic community redistribution in the Basque coast, favouring warm-water species relative to cold-water species. Weight at age for anchovy and sardine decreased in the last two decades. 2) Deepening of the winter mixed layer depth in the south-eastern bay that probably led to increases in nutrients, surface oxygen, and chlorophyll concentration. Current increases on chlorophyll and zooplankton (i.e., copepods) biomass are contrary to those expected under CC scenarios in the region. 3) Sea-level rise (1.5-3.5 cm per decade since 1990s), associated with CC. 4) Increase of extreme wave height events of 16.8 cm per decade in the south-eastern bay, probably related to stormy conditions in the last decade, with impacts on beach erosion. Estimating accurate rates of sea warming, sea-level rise, extreme events, and foreseeing the future pathways of marine productivity, are key to define the best adaptation measures to minimize negative CC impacts in the region.

Special issue Oceanic biodiversity under climate change: shifts in natural and human systems.-- 11 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.104666.-- This research was conducted as part of the CLIOTOP program. This is a contribution 942 from AZTI Marine Research Division, Species shifts due to climate change are being recorded and reported worldwide. However, the accurate estimation and causal attribution of species shifts using spatial distribution indicators, such as the center of gravity, is challenging. This is particularly problematic for commercially exploited marine species with data from research surveys, commercial fisheries or other data collection methods that are not recorded homogeneously over time and space. Here, we propose a new framework to ascertain whether the changes in the spatial distribution of species are due to changes in habitat conditions, fishing activity or other factors. This approach is developed to help elucidate the main drivers of species shifts and it is based upon the comparison of historical trends in species distribution shifts among raw data and modeled: i) fishing effort, ii) population occurrence and abundance, iii) habitat, and iv) spatio-temporal reconstruction of the species distribution. We apply this new methodology to the case study of swordfish populations worldwide. On a global scale, 2 out of 6 stocks of swordfish shifted latitudinally during 1958–2004. Of those two, only the Mediterranean stock was associated with a linear trend change of its habitat. In two other stocks, the latitudinal center of gravity of populations occurrence varies following their habitats’ interannual variability; however, this shift is not linear. We further developed a worldwide habitat suitability model for swordfish and projected its distribution and abundance into the future under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the highest greenhouse gas concentration scenario, by the end of the century. Future projections estimate an overall swordfish decrease of 22% in CPUE (catch per unit of effort), with substantial decreases in most tropical areas, and a slight increase in its distribution range limits, both in the north and southern hemispheres, This research was funded by the Basque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing, and Food Policy). M. Erauskin-Extramiana has benefited from a Basque Government scholarship through Economic Development and Infrastructures Department. [...] A. Cabre is grateful for the ‘‘Beatriu de Pinos’’ fellowship and the program Marie Curie Actions COFUND of the 7th Framework Program for Research and Technological Development of the European Union. R. Coelho is supported by an Investigador-FCT contract (Ref: IF/00253/2014) from FCT, the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. D. Rosa is supported by a Ph.D. grant from FCT (Ref: SFRH/BD/136074/2018), With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)

Uncertainty coming from assessment models leads to risk in decision making and ignoring or misestimating it can result in an erroneous management action. Some parameters, such as selectivity or survey catchabilities, can present a wide range of shapes and the introduction of smooth functions, which up to now have not been widely used in assessment models, allows for more flexibility to capture underlying nonlinear structures. In this work a simulation study emulating a sardine population is carried out to compare three different methods for uncertainty estimation: multivariate normal distribution, bootstrap (without and with relative bias correction) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In order to study their performance depending on the model complexity, five different scenarios are defined depending on the shape of the smooth function of the fishing mortality. From 100 simulated datasets, performance is measured in terms of point estimation, coefficients of variation, bias, skewness, coverage probabilities, and correlation. In all approaches model fitting is carried out using the a4a framework. All three methods result in very similar performance. The main differences are found for observation variance parameters where the bootstrap and the multivariate normal approach result in underestimation of these parameters. In general, MCMC is considered to have better performance, being able to detect skewness, showing small relative bias and reaching expected coverage probabilities. It is also more efficient in terms of time consumption in comparison with bootstrapping.

This work investigated adult-mediated connectivity and spatial population structure of sardine in the European Atlantic waters. The spatial and temporal progress of cohorts was modelled using abundance-at-age survey data by area in the period 2000 to 2016, covering the region from the northern Bay of Biscay to the eastern Gulf of Cadiz. A novel methodology was used to calculate indices of cohort movement between areas. Movement was relatively low between three large regions, the Bay of Biscay, the northern Spanish and Portuguese waters and the Gulf of Cadiz, each hosting a recruitment hotspot. On the other hand, one half of the sardines recruited in North Portugal and a quarter of those recruited in Southwest Portugal moved to northern Spanish waters and South Portugal, sustaining local populations and fisheries. Movement was mainly driven by recruitment strength and, in a less extent, by food availability during fall. The connectivity and dynamic patterns suggest a metapopulation with three weakly connected populations and density-dependent source-sink movement within the northern Spanish and Portuguese waters population. While the weak connectivity does not invalidate the management boundary between the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Peninsula, the Gulf of Cadiz may be treated as a separate stock. Multi-area/metapopulation assessment approaches should be applied to account for complex population structure, the higher risks of depleting source areas and/or less productive populations, Sí

18 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables, supporting information https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14630, Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long-term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end-of-the-century changes based on a high-greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long-term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two-step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end-of-the-century (2080–2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management, This research was funded by the Basque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing, and Food Policy) and Fundación Biodiversidad (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture and Fishing, Food and Environment; CLIREMAR project). M. Erauskin has benefited from a Basque Government scholarship through Economic Development and Infrastructures Department. [...] A. Cabre is grateful for the “Beatriu de Pinos” fellowship and the program Marie Curie Actions COFUND of the 7th Framework Program for Research and Technological Development of the European Union

La fermeture de la pêche de l’anchois (Engraulis encrasicolus) du Golfe de Gascogne entre 2005 et 2010, en raison de la faible biomasse du stock, a été une opportunité pour estimer la mortalité naturelle à partir de données de campagnes halieutiques issues de l’observation de la présence d’oeufs (DEPM) et de mesures acoustiques, utilisées pour l’évaluation de cette population depuis 1987. En considérant que la mortalité naturelle est constante au cours du temps et que la capturabilité des deux campagnes est identique pour tous les âges, la mortalité naturelle peut être estimée par des modèles log-linéaires appliquées aux séries temporelles de nombres aux âges issues des campagnes, et par des modèles d’évaluations de stock prenant en compte la saison. L’analyse suggère des valeurs de M autour de 0.9 comme mortalité naturelle courante à tous les âges. Cependant, nous avons des éléments forts indicateurs que la mortalité aux âges 2 et plus (M2+) est remarquablement plus forte qu’à l’âge 1 (M1) ce qui suppose un signe de mortalité sénescente, une possibilité qui a déjà été évoquée il y a longtemps pour ce type d’espèce à vie courte.

In order to understand better the recruitment variability in European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, it is important to investigate the processes that affect survival during the early life stages. Anchovy juvenile growth trajectories and hatch-date distributions were inferred over a 3-year period based on otolith microstructure analysis. Otolith growth trajectories showed a characteristic shape depending on their hatch-date timing. Earlier-born juveniles had notably broader maximum increments than later born conspecifics, resulting in higher growth rates. This observation suggests that early hatching would be beneficial for larval and juvenile growth, and, therefore, survival. The estimated juvenile hatch-date distributions were relatively narrow compared with the extended anchovy spawning season (March–August) in the Bay of Biscay and indicated that only individuals originated mainly from the summer months (June–August) survived until autumn. Hatch-date distributions were markedly different among years and seemed to influence the interannual recruitment strength of anchovy. We conclude that years characterized by juvenile survivors originating from the peak spawning period (May and June) would lead to considerable recruitment success. Downwelling events during the peak spawning period seem to affect larval survival. Furthermore, size-dependent overwinter mortality would be an additional process that regulates recruitment strength in the anchovy population in the Bay of Biscay.

Multiannual management plans are increasingly used to manage fishery systems in Europe. Initially, they were focused on single species, however in the last decade mixed-fishery management plans have emerged to ensure sustainable exploitation of stocks and ecosystems. However, quantitative evaluations of the management plans are generally focused on data-rich and/or target stocks and most of the data-limited and/or bycatch species are not included. Even if they are not included in the evaluation, they could be at high risk of overexploitation or constrain the economic performance of the fishery. Thus, it is crucial to identify the species that should be included in the evaluation of multiannual management plans. The objectives of this study are to assess the potential risk of the species caught by the Basque demersal fishery following the productivity-susceptibility analysis approach, and to identify the most exploited, vulnerable, and/or economically important species for the Basque demersal fishery modifying an existing prioritisation approach. The prioritisation facilitates the selection of the species that should be considered in an integral evaluation of the Basque demersal fishery management plan. According to the results, including the top-ten ranked species in the evaluation of the Basque demersal fishery management plans would ensure an adequate evaluation of the management measures effects.

According to ecological niche theory, species response curves are unimodal with respect to environmental gradients. A variety of statistical methods have been developed for species distribution modelling. A general problem with most of these habitat modelling approaches is that the estimated response curves can display biologically implausible shapes which do not respect ecological niche theory. This work proposes using shapeconstrained generalized additive models (SC-GAMs) to build species distribution models under the ecological niche theory framework, imposing concavity constraints in the linear predictor scale. Based on a simulation study and a real data application, we compared performance with respect to other regression models without shape-constraints (such as standard GLMs and GAMs with varying degrees of freedom) and also to models based on so-called “Plateau” climate-envelopes. The imposition of concavity for response curves resulted in a good balance between the goodness of fit (GOF) and agreement with ecological niche theory. The approach has been applied to fit distribution models for three fish species given several environmental variables.

As tropical pelagic species are attracted by floating objects in the surface of the ocean, industrial purse seiners deploy thousands of man-made drifting fish aggregating devices (DFADs) to facilitate their catch of tunas. However, the sharp increase in the use of DFADs leads to some ecological concerns, such as producing higher amount of by-catch or alteration of natural behaviour of fish. We used fishers’ satellite-linked GPS buoys equipped with echo-sounders to continuously collect acoustic samples under remote DFADs and investigate the diel behaviour patterns of the associated fish (i.e., non-tuna species and small and large tunas) and their potential biological interactions. Results showed a strong correlation between the presence of non-tuna species and small tunas, and between small and large tunas. Diel biomass dynamics were highly variable and seem to be both species and region-specific, which may suggest adaptive behaviour patterns. Tuna associated with DFADs in the Somalia area showed a clear night-time associative behaviour. In contrast, tuna in the NW Seychelles associated with DFADs to a greater degree during daytime. In the Mozambique Channel, large tuna showed daytime associative behaviour, while small tuna showed a maximum biomass at sunrise, decreasing over the day. The associative behaviour of non-tuna species was slightly variable, being uniform near the equator or showing two peaks when increasing latitude. This study shows the importance and effect of biological factors on the associative behaviour of the fish and serves as a first step towards improving pre-set selectivity of purse seine fisheries using DFADs. The fish presence and density may improve DFAD attraction and detectability and the observed periodicity by species and area shows both similarities and differences with published literature.

Chust, G., Castellani, C., Licandro, P., Ibaibarriaga, L., Sagarminaga, Y., and Irigoien, X. 2014. Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71: 241–253. In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time.

To efficiently manage and maintain fish stock abundance and age structure, it is necessary to understand variability in its spatial distribution. The main objective of this study was to describe the demographic structure of the Bay of Biscay anchovy during the main spawning period based on adult samples from 15 daily egg production method surveys. The proportion of age-1 individuals was modelled using generalized additive models with a binomial distribution and a logit link in relation to geographical and environmental covariates. The possibility of obtaining different models depending on the average age-1 proportion (low or high) was also explored. In general, age-1 individuals were found in shallow waters close to the coast, especially associated with the Gironde and Adour river plumes, whereas older individuals were prevalent on the shelf break and in oceanic waters. However, in years with a high age-1 proportion the younger individuals were also dominant in oceanic waters. These results could be used for management purposes, such as defining protected areas for particular age groups.

Ibaibarriaga, L., Fernández, C., and Uriarte, A. 2011. Gaining information from commercial catch for a Bayesian two-stage biomass dynamic model: application to Bay of Biscay anchovy. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1435–1446. A two-stage biomass dynamic model for Bay of Biscay anchovy is presented. Compared with the model currently applied by ICES for the assessment of that stock, the new model separates the growth and natural mortality processes and allows them to differ by age class. Stochastic equations involving the observed weights by age class in surveys are incorporated to provide information on growth rates. The fishing process is modelled separating fishing mortality into year and age-class effects in each semester, and observation equations are introduced for total catch and catch proportion by age class (in biomass) by semester. The model is first tested on simulated data, then applied to real data for the years 1987–2008. Although the results are affected by survey catchability and natural mortality assumptions, estimates of population trends, when expressed in relation to the value in a given year, are robust. The new model has significantly more parameters, requiring longer computational time for its fitting, which is done in a Bayesian context. However, it does allow the testing of different assumptions on natural mortality, which is of special interest after the recent fishery closure, and estimating new parameters, which could provide further insight on stock and fleet dynamics.

Bernal, M., Stratoudakis, Y., Wood, S., Ibaibarriaga, L., Uriarte, A., Valdés, L., and Borchers, D. 2011. A revision of daily egg production estimation methods, with application to Atlanto-Iberian sardine. 2. Spatially and environmentally explicit estimates of egg production. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . A spatially and environmentally explicit egg production model is developed to accommodate a number of assumptions about the relationship between egg production and mortality and associated environmental variables. The general model was tested under different assumptions for Atlanto-Iberian sardine. It provides a flexible estimator of egg production, in which a range of assumptions and hypotheses can be tested in a structured manner within a well-defined statistical framework. Application of the model to Atlanto-Iberian sardine increased the precision of the egg production time-series, and allowed improvements to be made in understanding the spatio-temporal variability in egg production, as well as implications for ecology and stock assessment.

Bernal, M., Stratoudakis, Y., Wood, S., Ibaibarriaga, L., Uriarte, A., Valdés, L., and Borchers, D. 2011. A revision of daily egg production estimation methods, with application to Atlanto-Iberian sardine. 1. Daily spawning synchronicity and estimates of egg mortality. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . Assumptions of daily spawning synchronicity and estimation of egg mortality for Atlanto-Iberian sardine are revised in the context of daily estimators of egg production. An extensive database of ichthyoplankton surveys from 1985 to 2008, aggregated at different levels, is used, a set of mortality models is derived, and a comparison among them is carried out using standard statistical techniques. Analysis of the database shows Atlanto-Iberian sardine to be a late-evening spawner, in agreement with previous knowledge, but suggests a lengthier daily period of spawning. Comparison among the set of mortality models used suggests that estimates of mortality from single surveys for Atlanto-Iberian sardine are often unreliable, and that the mean estimates obtained after aggregating data from various years are statistically significant, more robust, and in line with existing information gathered from the literature.

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relevant parameters, and associated uncertainties, in order to apply the daily egg production method (DEPM) to European hake in the Bay of Biscay from data obtained during the triennial egg surveys. The work carried out in this study is a considerable improvement on the previous preliminary attempts at a DEPM approach made in 1997–2001. Moreover, most of the parameters investigated in this study and required for DEPM are actually known. In contrast, to precisely estimate both the planktonic egg production and the adult fecundity parameters (i.e. to reduce the variance associated with those estimates) adjustment of the current sampling strategy and techniques is required. The present study concluded that the DEPM is potentially applicable to this stock. However, the triennial egg surveys sampling design is not considered an optimal sampling platform to carry out northern hake egg production estimation and thus, the sampling strategy should be adapted for the spawning behaviour of hake. In addition, this paper presents estimates of hake adult biomass using the DEPM in the Bay of Biscay. Hake SSB exhibited a fivefold decrease from approximately 49,000 tons (CV = 0.565) to 9500 tons (CV = 0.910) between 1995 and 1998. Thereafter, it increased to 35,500 tons (CV = 0.574) in 2001 before decreasing again to around 24,000 tons (CV = 0.595) in 2004. In general, the DEPM-based spawning stock biomass (SSB) estimates follow similar trends to those estimated by the virtual population analysis (VPA).

In this study the spatial distribution of eggs, larvae and juveniles of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) was followed in 2004 and 2005 during three consecutive cruises each year in spring–summer to test what the limits of retention are in a non-upwelling area. Eggs, small larvae and large juveniles were mainly distributed over the shelf, whereas large larvae and small juveniles were found mainly off the shelf. Although overall distributions were similar, the 2 yr differed in that there was more of a coastal distribution of individuals in 2004, whereas in 2005 more individuals were found off the shelf. There were no significant differences in the length–weight relationships for individuals found on and off the shelf or between years. The correspondence in circulation patterns and the lack of difference in the length–weight relationships suggest that a single population is present, larvae drifting off the shelf due to currents and returning as mobile juveniles. Quantile regression analysis of the long-term recruitment index suggests that transport off the shelf may favour good recruitments. This would suggest that in non-upwelling regions the retention area resulting in good recruitment may not be restricted to the shelf.

Ibaibarriaga, L., Fernández, C., Uriarte, A., and Roel, B. A. 2008. A two-stage biomass dynamic model for Bay of Biscay anchovy: a Bayesian approach. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 191–205. A two-stage biomass-based state-space model with stochastic recruitment processes and deterministic dynamics was developed for the Bay of Biscay anchovy population. It is fitted in a Bayesian context with posterior computations carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The model is tested first on a simulated dataset and the effects of different modelling assumptions and of missing values evaluated. Then, it is applied to a real historical series of commercial catch and survey data from 1987 to 2006. Results are compared with those obtained by the standard assessment model for this stock, integrated catch-at-age analysis (ICA). From the posterior distribution of biomass in the latest year (2006), the distribution of unexploited biomass in 2007 can be derived assuming the distribution of recruitment in 2007 to be a mixture of the posterior distributions of past series recruitment. Hence, the effect of different catch options on future biomass levels can be quantified in probabilistic terms. Finally, directions for possible further improvements are indicated.

Bernal, M., Ibaibarriaga, L., Lago de Lanzós, A., Lonergan, M. E., Hernández, C., Franco, C., Rasines, I., Valdés, L., and Borchers, D. L. 2008. Using multinomial models to analyse data from Iberian sardine egg incubation experiments: a comparison with traditional techniques. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 51–59. Multinomial rather than traditional models were applied to improve data analysis of incubation experiments for Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) eggs. Incubation experiments were carried out in 2002 in the Gulf of Cádiz, southwestern Spain, and data were taken from the literature for the Cantabrian Sea area. Rigorous review of the traditional models revealed shortcomings in the statistical framework for modelling the developmental progression of egg stages as well as a lack of transparency of the inherent assumptions. Multinomial model results show that egg stage duration varies for all stages, with stages 3 and 4 having the shortest duration. Comparison of the results between multinomial and traditional models shows that multinomial models provide improved insight into developmental mechanisms than that can be achieved using traditional models.

Since AMBI was published originally in 2000, it has been used in an increasing number of investigations with monitoring purposes, or to analyse impacts on soft-bottom macrobenthic communities. Some guidelines for its correct use were published in 2005; however, a main issue remained without an answer — which are the minimal area and number of replicates necessary, to obtain a precise estimate for AMBI? In this study, new methodologies such as bootstrap techniques have been applied to this particular problem. Data were obtained from sampling carried out in 1995, within the framework of the Littoral Water Quality Monitoring and Control Network of the Basque Country (northern Spain). The sampling strategy consisted of 11 intertidal estuarine sampling stations (0.25m2, sampled for each of six replicates) and 17 subtidal estuarine and coastal sampling stations (0.125m2, sampled for each of six replicates). Two replicates have been established as being sufficient, both for intertidal and subtidal sampling stations, to classify 80% of the pseudosamples into the same disturbance level, in terms of AMBI, for 64% of the stations. For the minimal area, it has been determined also (for both intertidal and subtidal sampling stations) that 0.25m2 is sufficient to classify 80% of the iterations into the same disturbance level, for 64% of the stations.

The effect of incubation temperature (8·6, 11·1, 13·2, 15·1 and 16·8° C) on north-east Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus development, growth and age at starvation during the yolk-sac larval period was investigated. Standard length at hatch was found to be inversely proportional to incubation temperatures within the natural thermal ranges of this species; it ranged from 3·76 mm at 11·1° C to 3·30 mm at 17·8° C. Following hatch, however, larval growth rate was positively related to temperature. Individual logistic models, as a function of temperature and age, were fitted to the development processes of gape, eye pigmentation, jaw mobility and yolk exhaustion. Thereafter, development was classified into different ordered stages and an extended continuation model was fitted to the multinomial ordered stage classification. In all cases, there was a difference of >23 h between the first and the last individual developing in certain stage. The probability of survival decreased with age and was inversely related to temperature. Yolk utilization varied from 4·5 to 8·6 days and individuals died between 7·9 and 12·2 days from 17·8 to 11·1° C. The study demonstrated the significant impact that temperature has on development, growth and survival rates, during the early life history.

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

International audience; In spite of its pivotal role in future implementations of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management, current knowledge about tuna habitat preferences remains fragmented and heterogeneous, because it relies mainly on regional or local studies that have used a variety of approaches making them difficult to combine. Therefore in this study we analyse data from six tuna species in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans in order to provide a global, comparative perspective of habitat preferences. These data are longline catch per unit effort from 1958 to 2007 for albacore, Atlantic bluefin, southern bluefin, bigeye, yellowfin and skipjack tunas. Both quotient analysis and Generalised Additive Models were used to determine habitat preference with respect to eight biotic and abiotic variables. Results confirmed that, compared to temperate tunas, tropical tunas prefer warm, anoxic, stratified waters. Atlantic and southern bluefin tuna prefer higher concentrations of chlorophyll than the rest. The two species also tolerate most extreme sea surface height anomalies and highest mixed layer depths. In general, Atlantic bluefin tuna tolerates the widest range of environmental conditions. An assessment of the most important variables determining fish habitat is also provided.

The World Conference on Stock Assessment Methods (July 2013) included a workshop on testing assessment methods through simula- tions. The exercise was made up of two steps applied to datasets from 14 representative fish stocks from around the world. Step 1 involved applyingstockassessmentstodatasetswithvaryingdegreesofeffortdedicatedtooptimizingfit.Step2wasappliedtoasubsetofthestocks and involved characteristics of given model fits being used to generate pseudo-data with error. These pseudo-data were then provided to assessment modellers and fits to the pseudo-data provided consistency checks within (self-tests) and among (cross-tests) assessment models. Although trends in biomass were often similar across models, the scaling of absolute biomass was not consistent across models. Similar types of models tended to perform similarly (e.g. age based or production models). Self-testing and cross-testing of models are a useful diagnostic approach, and suggested that estimates in the most recent years of time-series were the least robust. Results from the simulation exercise provide a basis for guidance on future large-scale simulation experiments and demonstrate the need for strategic investments in the evaluation and development of stock assessment methods., JRC.G.3-Maritime affairs

The Daily Egg Production Method (DEPM) used to estimate the Spawning Stock Biomass for many fish species requires that eggs classified into morphological stages are converted into daily cohorts. Since the development of the eggs is dependent on the temperature, the ageing process requires the temperature at which the eggs have been incubated. For the Bay of Biscay anchovy the incubation temperature is usually considered to be the observed temperature at 10 m depth, where maximum concentrations of eggs are typically reported. However, this temperature cannot always be recorded. In cold years, this can sometimes produce cohorts that are older than expected. Physical transport of the eggs could be one of the explanations: as the eggs are transported from one area to another, they follow an unknown gradient of temperatures. In this paper we present a method to calculate the incubation temperature by station corresponding to the maximum probability of finding the number of eggs by stages in the station, given sampling time and daily distribution of spawning time. The algorithm sweeps a range of temperature values below the sea surface temperature (SST) recorded at each station, and gives both the global maximum and the local maximum closest to SST as potential solutions. We analyze the effect of the temperature on the ageing, and assess the expected variations in the final estimates of the Daily Egg Production.

This paper describes how multinomial models can be used to study developmental rates of biological processes and how these are affected by different factors such as temperature or parental effects. First, the most common multinomial models for ordinal categorical data (namely, proportional odds, continuation-ratio, and extended continuation-ratio models) are described within the particular framework of developmental rates for discrete and ordered stage classified biological processes. Then, the extraction from the fitted models of a series of biologically meaningful parameters is proposed. In particular, maximum probable age and several alternative definitions for stage duration are presented and pros and cons of each of them are discussed. As an example, the methodology is applied to analyze the temperature dependent development of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) eggs in the Bay of Biscay.

Fisheries Research, 143 (2013) 1-11. 10.1016/j.fishres.2013.01.003 barbath 11.9999 Two different stock assessment models were applied to the North Aegean Sea anchovy stock (Eastern Mediterranean Sea): an Integrated Catch at age Analysis and a Bayesian two-stage biomass based model. Commercial catch data over the period 2000-2008 as well as acoustics and Daily Egg Production Method estimates over the period 2003-2008 were used. Both models results were consistent, indicating that anchovy stock is exploited sustainably in relation to an exploitation rate reference point. Further, the stock biomass appears stable or increasing. However, the limitations in age-composition data, potential problems related to misinterpretation of age readings along with the existence of missing values in the survey data seem to favour the two-stage biomass method, which is based on a simplified age structure. Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

The aim of this study was to describe the biometric characteristics of the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) catches and assess the current status of sardine stock in North Aegean Sea based on population characteristics and abundance trends. The stock was dominated by age groups 1 and 2, not exceeding age group 4. The sardine stock in this area was assessed through an Integrated Catch-at-Age model which implements a separable Virtual Population Analysis on catch at age data with weighted tuning indices. Sardine landings data derived from the commercial purse seine fishery over the period 2000-2008 were combined with the age structure of the stock as resulted from fisheries independent acoustic surveys. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of natural mortality values on stock assessment results was applied. Additionally forecast of the sardine population parameters and catches under different exploitation scenarios was implemented in a medium term basis. Results indicated that the North Aegean Sea sardine stock is considered fully exploited with the fishery operating close but over the empirical exploitation level for sustainability. Finally, the status of the sardine stock in N. Aegean Sea is discussed in relation to the sardine stocks from the western and the central Mediterranean basin.