Search

Gaussian Processes (GPs) and Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) are essential time series and dynamic system modeling tools. GPs can handle complex, nonlinear dynamics but are computationally demanding, while LDSs offer efficient computation but lack the expressive power of GPs. To combine their benefits, we introduce a universal method that allows an LDS to mirror stationary temporal GPs. This state-space representation, known as the Markovian Gaussian Process (Markovian GP), leverages the flexibility of kernel functions while maintaining efficient linear computation. Unlike existing GP-LDS conversion methods, which require separability for most multi-output kernels, our approach works universally for single- and multi-output stationary temporal kernels. We evaluate our method by computing covariance, performing regression tasks, and applying it to a neuroscience application, demonstrating that our method provides an accurate state-space representation for stationary temporal GPs.

Studying the complex interactions between different brain regions is crucial in neuroscience. Various statistical methods have explored the latent communication across multiple brain regions. Two main categories are the Gaussian Process (GP) and Linear Dynamical System (LDS), each with unique strengths. The GP-based approach effectively discovers latent variables with frequency bands and communication directions. Conversely, the LDS-based approach is computationally efficient but lacks powerful expressiveness in latent representation. In this study, we merge both methodologies by creating an LDS mirroring a multi-output GP, termed Multi-Region Markovian Gaussian Process (MRM-GP). Our work establishes a connection between an LDS and a multi-output GP that explicitly models frequencies and phase delays within the latent space of neural recordings. Consequently, the model achieves a linear inference cost over time points and provides an interpretable low-dimensional representation, revealing communication directions across brain regions and separating oscillatory communications into different frequency bands.

The partially observable generalized linear model (POGLM) is a powerful tool for understanding neural connectivity under the assumption of existing hidden neurons. With spike trains only recorded from visible neurons, existing works use variational inference to learn POGLM meanwhile presenting the difficulty of learning this latent variable model. There are two main issues: (1) the sampled Poisson hidden spike count hinders the use of the pathwise gradient estimator in VI; and (2) the existing design of the variational model is neither expressive nor time-efficient, which further affects the performance. For (1), we propose a new differentiable POGLM, which enables the pathwise gradient estimator, better than the score function gradient estimator used in existing works. For (2), we propose the forward-backward message-passing sampling scheme for the variational model. Comprehensive experiments show that our differentiable POGLMs with our forward-backward message passing produce a better performance on one synthetic and two real-world datasets. Furthermore, our new method yields more interpretable parameters, underscoring its significance in neuroscience.

Maximizing the log-likelihood is a crucial aspect of learning latent variable models, and variational inference (VI) stands as the commonly adopted method. However, VI can encounter challenges in achieving a high log-likelihood when dealing with complicated posterior distributions. In response to this limitation, we introduce a novel variational importance sampling (VIS) approach that directly estimates and maximizes the log-likelihood. VIS leverages the optimal proposal distribution, achieved by minimizing the forward $\chi^2$ divergence, to enhance log-likelihood estimation. We apply VIS to various popular latent variable models, including mixture models, variational auto-encoders, and partially observable generalized linear models. Results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, both in terms of log-likelihood and model parameter estimation.

Lithium-ion batteries degrade due to usage and exposure to environmental conditions, which affects their capability to store energy and supply power. Accurately predicting the capacity and power fade of lithium-ion battery cells is challenging due to intrinsic manufacturing variances and coupled nonlinear ageing mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a data-driven prognostics framework to predict both capacity and power fade simultaneously with multi-task learning. The model is able to predict the degradation trajectory of both capacity and internal resistance together with knee-points and end-of-life points accurately at early-life stage. The validation shows an average percentage error of 2.37% and 1.24% for the prediction of capacity fade and resistance rise, respectively. The model's ability to accurately predict the degradation, facing capacity and resistance estimation errors, further demonstrates the model's robustness and generalizability. Compared with single-task learning models for forecasting capacity and power degradation, the model shows a significant prediction accuracy improvement and computational cost reduction. This work presents the highlights of multi-task learning in the degradation prognostics for lithium-ion batteries.