1. Probabilistic approach of pre-estimating life-cycle costs of road tunnels.
- Author
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Petroutsatou, Kleopatra, Vagdatli, Theodora, and Maravas, Alexander
- Subjects
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LIFE cycle costing , *TUNNELS , *MONTE Carlo method , *INTERVAL analysis , *DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) - Abstract
Conceptual pre-estimation of road tunnel costs is a vital yet challenging process during feasibility studies due to the prevailing underground uncertainties and risks. Most existing cost estimation approaches are deterministic, probabilistic methods are limited to a single cost examination. This paper introduces a probabilistic model for pre-estimating road tunnels life-cycle costs. It aims to capture their inherent uncertainty holistically, thus enabling more reliable decision-making at a project's early stages. The proposed model is developed in three steps: multiple regression analysis, fitting distribution, and Monte-Carlo simulation. The first step unveils the correlations between independent and dependent variables, while the other two steps return the probabilistic descriptions of cost drivers and life-cycle costs. Civil engineering, electromechanical works costs, energy consumption, and operation & maintenance costs are determined as the model's output variables. A real-world database of 32 dual-bore road tunnels with a total length of 55 km is used to develop probability distributions within reasonable confidence intervals and a sensitivity analysis was performed utilizing tornado charts. The results can assist public authorities and managers in estimating the probability of a specific life-cycle cost and making appropriate decisions in accordance with their risk tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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