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We here present CLUES2, a full-likelihood method to infer natural selection from sequence data that is an extension of the method CLUES. We make several substantial improvements to the CLUES method that greatly increases both its applicability and its speed. We add the ability to use ancestral recombination graphs on ancient data as emissions to the underlying hidden Markov model, which enables CLUES2 to use both temporal and linkage information to make estimates of selection coefficients. We also fully implement the ability to estimate distinct selection coefficients in different epochs, which allows for the analysis of changes in selective pressures through time, as well as selection with dominance. In addition, we greatly increase the computational efficiency of CLUES2 over CLUES using several approximations to the forward-backward algorithms and develop a new way to reconstruct historic allele frequencies by integrating over the uncertainty in the estimation of the selection coefficients. We illustrate the accuracy of CLUES2 through extensive simulations and validate the importance sampling framework for integrating over the uncertainty in the inference of gene trees. We also show that CLUES2 is well-calibrated by showing that under the null hypothesis, the distribution of log-likelihood ratios follows a χ2 distribution with the appropriate degrees of freedom. We run CLUES2 on a set of recently published ancient human data from Western Eurasia and test for evidence of changing selection coefficients through time. We find significant evidence of changing selective pressures in several genes correlated with the introduction of agriculture to Europe and the ensuing dietary and demographic shifts of that time. In particular, our analysis supports previous hypotheses of strong selection on lactase persistence during periods of ancient famines and attenuated selection in more modern periods.

Understanding the incidence of disease is often crucial for public policy decision-making, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating incidence is challenging, however, when the definition of incidence relies on tests that imperfectly measure disease, as in the case when assays with variable performance are used to detect the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To our knowledge, there are no pragmatic methods to address the bias introduced by the performance of labs in testing for the virus. In the setting of a longitudinal study, we developed a maximum likelihood estimation-based approach to estimate laboratory performance-adjusted incidence using the expectation-maximization algorithm. We constructed confidence intervals (CIs) using both bootstrapped-based and large-sample interval estimator approaches. We evaluated our methods through extensive simulation and applied them to a real-world study (TrackCOVID), where the primary goal was to determine the incidence of and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the San Francisco Bay Area from July 2020 to March 2021. Our simulations demonstrated that our method converged rapidly with accurate estimates under a variety of scenarios. Bootstrapped-based CIs were comparable to the large-sample estimator CIs with a reasonable number of incident cases, shown via a simulation scenario based on the real TrackCOVID study. In more extreme simulated scenarios, the coverage of large-sample interval estimation outperformed the bootstrapped-based approach. Results from the application to the TrackCOVID study suggested that assuming perfect laboratory test performance can lead to an inaccurate inference of the incidence. Our flexible, pragmatic method can be extended to a variety of disease and study settings.

To adhere to and capitalize on the benefits of the FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) principles in agricultural genome-to-phenome studies, it is crucial to address privacy and intellectual property issues that prevent sharing and reuse of data in research and industry. Direct sharing of genotype and phenotype data is often prohibited due to intellectual property and privacy concerns. Thus, there is a pressing need for encryption methods that obscure confidential aspects of the data, without affecting the outcomes of certain statistical analyses. A homomorphic encryption method for genotypes and phenotypes (HEGP) has been proposed for single-marker regression in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using linear mixed models with Gaussian errors. This methodology permits frequentist likelihood-based parameter estimation and inference. In this paper, we extend HEGP to broader applications in genome-to-phenome analyses. We show that HEGP is suited to commonly used linear mixed models for genetic analyses of quantitative traits including genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP), as well as Bayesian variable selection methods (e.g. those in Bayesian Alphabet), for genetic parameter estimation, genomic prediction, and GWAS. By advancing the capabilities of HEGP, we offer researchers and industry professionals a secure and efficient approach for collaborative genomic analyses while preserving data confidentiality.

Computational cognitive models have been used extensively to formalize cognitive processes. Model parameters offer a simple way to quantify individual differences in how humans process information. Similarly, model comparison allows researchers to identify which theories, embedded in different models, provide the best accounts of the data. Cognitive modeling uses statistical tools to quantitatively relate models to data that often rely on computing/estimating the likelihood of the data under the model. However, this likelihood is computationally intractable for a substantial number of models. These relevant models may embody reasonable theories of cognition, but are often under-explored due to the limited range of tools available to relate them to data. We contribute to filling this gap in a simple way using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to map data directly onto model identity and parameters, bypassing the likelihood estimation. We test our instantiation of an ANN as a cognitive model fitting tool on classes of cognitive models with strong inter-trial dependencies (such as reinforcement learning models), which offer unique challenges to most methods. We show that we can adequately perform both parameter estimation and model identification using our ANN approach, including for models that cannot be fit using traditional likelihood-based methods. We further discuss our work in the context of the ongoing research leveraging simulation-based approaches to parameter estimation and model identification, and how these approaches broaden the class of cognitive models researchers can quantitatively investigate.

This study presents a novel approach for inferring the incidence of infections by employing a quantitative model of the serum antibody response. Current methodologies often overlook the cumulative effect of an individual's infection history, making it challenging to obtain a marginal distribution for antibody concentrations. Our proposed approach leverages approximate Bayesian computation to simulate cross-sectional antibody responses and compare these to observed data, factoring in the impact of repeated infections. We then assess the empirical distribution functions of the simulated and observed antibody data utilizing Kolmogorov deviance, thereby incorporating a goodness-of-fit check. This new method not only matches the computational efficiency of preceding likelihood-based analyses but also facilitates the joint estimation of antibody noise parameters. The results affirm that the predictions generated by our within-host model closely align with the observed distributions from cross-sectional samples of a well-characterized population. Our findings mirror those of likelihood-based methodologies in scenarios of low infection pressure, such as the transmission of pertussis in Europe. However, our simulations reveal that in settings of higher infection pressure, likelihood-based approaches tend to underestimate the force of infection. Thus, our novel methodology presents significant advancements in estimating infection incidence, thereby enhancing our understanding of disease dynamics in the field of epidemiology.

Ignorable likelihood (IL) approaches are often used to handle missing data when estimating a multivariate model, such as a structural equation model. In this case, the likelihood is based on all available data, and no model is specified for the missing data mechanism. Inference proceeds via maximum likelihood or Bayesian methods, including multiple imputation without auxiliary variables. Such IL approaches are valid under a missing at random (MAR) assumption. Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (Ignoring non-ignorable missingness. Presidential Address at the International Meeting of the Psychometric Society, Beijing, China, 2015; Psychometrika, 2023) consider a violation of MAR where a variable A can affect missingness of another variable B also when A is not observed. They show that this case can be handled by discarding more data before proceeding with IL approaches. This data-deletion approach is similar to the sequential estimation of Mohan et al. (in: Advances in neural information processing systems, 2013) based on their ordered factorization theorem but is preferable for parametric models. Which kind of data-deletion or ordered factorization to employ depends on the nature of the MAR violation. In this article, we therefore propose two diagnostic tests, a likelihood-ratio test for a heteroscedastic regression model and a kernel conditional independence test. We also develop a test-based estimator that first uses diagnostic tests to determine which MAR violation appears to be present and then proceeds with the corresponding data-deletion estimator. Simulations show that the test-based estimator outperforms IL when the missing data problem is severe and performs similarly otherwise.

Analyses of genome sequence data have revealed pervasive interspecific gene flow and enriched our understanding of the role of gene flow in speciation and adaptation. Inference of gene flow using genomic data requires powerful statistical methods. Yet current likelihood-based methods involve heavy computation and are feasible for small datasets only. Here, we implement the multispecies-coalescent-with-migration model in the Bayesian program bpp, which can be used to test for gene flow and estimate migration rates, as well as species divergence times and population sizes. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for efficient sampling from the posterior, enabling the analysis of genome-scale datasets with thousands of loci. Implementation of both introgression and migration models in the same program allows us to test whether gene flow occurred continuously over time or in pulses. Analyses of genomic data from Anopheles mosquitoes demonstrate rich information in typical genomic datasets about the mode and rate of gene flow.

A large number of variants identified through clinical genetic testing in disease susceptibility genes, are of uncertain significance (VUS). Following the recommendations of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) and Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP), the frequency in case-control datasets (PS4 criterion), can inform their interpretation. We present a novel case-control likelihood ratio-based method that incorporates gene-specific age-related penetrance. We demonstrate the utility of this method in the analysis of simulated and real datasets. In the analyses of simulated data, the likelihood ratio method was more powerful compared to other methods. Likelihood ratios were calculated for a case-control dataset of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), and compared with logistic regression results. A larger number of variants reached evidence in favor of pathogenicity, and a substantial number of variants had evidence against pathogenicity - findings that would not have been reached using other case-control analysis methods. Our novel method provides greater power to classify rare variants compared to classical case-control methods. As an initiative from the ENIGMA Analytical Working Group, we provide user-friendly scripts and pre-formatted excel calculators for implementation of the method for rare variants in BRCA1, BRCA2 and other high-risk genes with known penetrance.

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically relevant subgroups and predicting whether a patient subpopulation might benefit from a particular treatment. Conventional approaches often evaluate the subgroup treatment effects via parametric modeling and can thus be susceptible to model mis-specifications. In this paper, we take a model-free semiparametric perspective and aim to efficiently evaluate the heterogeneous treatment effects of multiple subgroups simultaneously under the one-step targeted maximum-likelihood estimation (TMLE) framework. When the number of subgroups is large, we further expand this path of research by looking at a variation of the one-step TMLE that is robust to the presence of small estimated propensity scores in finite samples. From our simulations, our method demonstrates substantial finite sample improvements compared to conventional methods. In a case study, our method unveils the potential treatment effect heterogeneity of rs12916-T allele (a proxy for statin usage) in decreasing Alzheimers disease risk.

Phylogenetic models of molecular evolution are central to numerous biological applications spanning diverse timescales, from hundreds of millions of years involving orthologous proteins to just tens of days relating to single cells within an organism. A fundamental problem in these applications is estimating model parameters, for which maximum likelihood estimation is typically employed. Unfortunately, maximum likelihood estimation is a computationally expensive task, in some cases prohibitively so. To address this challenge, we here introduce CherryML, a broadly applicable method that achieves several orders of magnitude speedup by using a quantized composite likelihood over cherries in the trees. The massive speedup offered by our method should enable researchers to consider more complex and biologically realistic models than previously possible. Here we demonstrate CherryMLs utility by applying it to estimate a general 400 × 400 rate matrix for residue-residue coevolution at contact sites in three-dimensional protein structures; we estimate that using current state-of-the-art methods such as the expectation-maximization algorithm for the same task would take >100,000 times longer.

Gradients of probabilistic model likelihoods with respect to their parameters are essential for modern computational statistics and machine learning. These calculations are readily available for arbitrary models via "automatic differentiation" implemented in general-purpose machine-learning libraries such as TensorFlow and PyTorch. Although these libraries are highly optimized, it is not clear if their general-purpose nature will limit their algorithmic complexity or implementation speed for the phylogenetic case compared to phylogenetics-specific code. In this paper, we compare six gradient implementations of the phylogenetic likelihood functions, in isolation and also as part of a variational inference procedure. We find that although automatic differentiation can scale approximately linearly in tree size, it is much slower than the carefully implemented gradient calculation for tree likelihood and ratio transformation operations. We conclude that a mixed approach combining phylogenetic libraries with machine learning libraries will provide the optimal combination of speed and model flexibility moving forward.

This study sought to analyze the influence of occupational stress on the body composition of hospital workers after one year of follow-up. This prospective cohort study included 218 workers from one of the leading private hospitals in the municipality of Santo Antônio de Jesus, Recôncavo da Bahia region, Northeast Brazil. Body composition was analyzed by proxy (Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference) and Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis. The primary exposure adopted in the present study was the perception of occupational stress, assessed with the adapted and reduced version of the Job Content Questionnaire evaluating demand and control dimensions. The covariates were work characteristics; biological characteristics; sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle. Statistical analyses were performed using descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analysis. At the first stage of the study, we identified that 55.96% (n = 122) of workers had high work demand and 25.22% (n = 55) had low control. Among those who had high demand and low control at the beginning of the study, the majority were women, non-white, with low educational and income levels, sleeping less than 7 h/day. After 12 months of follow-up, the median value for demand continued as 13 (IQR: 5–25) and for control, it increased to 16 (IQR: 9–23). In this second moment of the study, 62.38% (n = 136) of workers showed high demand and 45.87% (n = 100) low control. The characteristics of workers with high demand and low control were similar to those of the first moment. The results indicate that high demand and low control at work are risk factors for changes in body mass index, fat mass and fat-free mass in hospital workers. This study shows the importance and need for clinical and epidemiological assessments regarding the body composition of professionals working in hospitals, since high rates of overweight and obesity are triggers of chronic health problems such as dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases, among others. Therefore, managers must promote adequate working conditions and understand the need for periodic body composition assessments.

Two probabilistic genotyping (PG) programs, STRMix™ and TrueAllele™, were used to assess the strength of the same item of DNA evidence in a federal criminal case, with strikingly different results. For STRMix, the reported likelihood ratio in favor of the non-contributor hypothesis was 24; for TrueAllele it ranged from 1.2 million to 16.7 million, depending on the reference population. This case report seeks to explain why the two programs produced different results and to consider what the difference tells us about the reliability and trustworthiness of these programs. It uses a locus-by-locus breakdown to trace the differing results to subtle differences in modeling parameters and methods, analytic thresholds, and mixture ratios, as well as TrueAllele's use of an ad hoc procedure for assigning LRs at some loci. These findings illustrate the extent to which PG analysis rests on a lattice of contestable assumptions, highlighting the importance of rigorous validation of PG programs using known-source test samples that closely replicate the characteristics of evidentiary samples. The article also points out misleading aspects of the way STRMix and TrueAllele results are routinely presented in reports and testimony and calls for clarification of forensic reporting standards to address those problems.

Phylogenetics has a crucial role in genomic epidemiology. Enabled by unparalleled volumes of genome sequence data generated to study and help contain the COVID-19 pandemic, phylogenetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have shed light on the virus's origins, spread, and the emergence and reproductive success of new variants. However, most phylogenetic approaches, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, cannot scale to the size of the datasets from the current pandemic. We present 'MAximum Parsimonious Likelihood Estimation' (MAPLE), an approach for likelihood-based phylogenetic analysis of epidemiological genomic datasets at unprecedented scales. MAPLE infers SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies more accurately than existing maximum likelihood approaches while running up to thousands of times faster, and requiring at least 100 times less memory on large datasets. This extends the reach of genomic epidemiology, allowing the continued use of accurate phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses on datasets of millions of genomes.

Given an (optimal) dynamic treatment rule, it may be of interest to evaluate that rule - that is, to ask the causal question: what is the expected outcome had every subject received treatment according to that rule? In this paper, we study the performance of estimators that approximate the true value of: (1) an a priori known dynamic treatment rule (2) the true, unknown optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR); (3) an estimated ODTR, a so-called "data-adaptive parameter," whose true value depends on the sample. Using simulations of point-treatment data, we specifically investigate: (1) the impact of increasingly data-adaptive estimation of nuisance parameters and/or of the ODTR on performance; (2) the potential for improved efficiency and bias reduction through the use of semiparametric efficient estimators; and, (3) the importance of sample splitting based on the cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimator (CV-TMLE) for accurate inference. In the simulations considered, there was very little cost and many benefits to using CV-TMLE to estimate the value of the true and estimated ODTR; importantly, and in contrast to non cross-validated estimators, the performance of CV-TMLE was maintained even when highly data-adaptive algorithms were used to estimate both nuisance parameters and the ODTR. In addition, we apply these estimators for the value of the rule to the "Interventions" study, an ongoing randomized controlled trial, to identify whether assigning cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) to criminal justice-involved adults with mental illness using an ODTR significantly reduces the probability of recidivism, compared to assigning CBT in a non-individualized way.

Despite substantial efforts in identifying both rare and common variants affecting disease risk, in the majority of diseases, a large proportion of unexplained genetic risk remains. We propose that variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) may explain a proportion of the missing genetic risk. Herein, in a pilot study with a retrospective cohort design, we tested whether VNTRs are causal modifiers of breast cancer risk in 347 female carriers of the BRCA1 185delAG pathogenic variant, an important group given their high risk of developing breast cancer. We performed targeted-capture to sequence VNTRs, called genotypes with adVNTR, tested the association of VNTRs and breast cancer risk using Cox regression models, and estimated the effect size using a retrospective likelihood approach. Of 303 VNTRs that passed quality control checks, 4 VNTRs were significantly associated with risk to develop breast cancer at false discovery rate [FDR]

Admixture estimation plays a crucial role in ancestry inference and genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Computer programs such as ADMIXTURE and STRUCTURE are commonly employed to estimate the admixture proportions of sample individuals. However, these programs can be overwhelmed by the computational burdens imposed by the 105 to 106 samples and millions of markers commonly found in modern biobanks. An attractive strategy is to run these programs on a set of ancestry-informative SNP markers (AIMs) that exhibit substantially different frequencies across populations. Unfortunately, existing methods for identifying AIMs require knowing ancestry labels for a subset of the sample. This supervised learning approach creates a chicken and the egg scenario. In this paper, we present an unsupervised, scalable framework that seamlessly carries out AIM selection and likelihood-based estimation of admixture proportions. Our simulated and real data examples show that this approach is scalable to modern biobank datasets. OpenADMIXTURE, our Julia implementation of the method, is open source and available for free.

AbstractNeuroimaging is a powerful tool to investigate potential associations between chronic pain and brain structure. However, the proliferation of studies across diverse chronic pain syndromes and heterogeneous results challenges data integration and interpretation. We conducted a preregistered anatomical likelihood estimate meta-analysis on structural magnetic imaging studies comparing patients with chronic pain and healthy controls. Specifically, we investigated a broad range of measures of brain structure as well as specific alterations in gray matter and cortical thickness. A total of 7849 abstracts of experiments published between January 1, 1990, and April 26, 2021, were identified from 8 databases and evaluated by 2 independent reviewers. Overall, 103 experiments with a total of 5075 participants met the preregistered inclusion criteria. After correction for multiple comparisons using the gold-standard family-wise error correction ( P < 0.05), no significant differences associated with chronic pain were found. However, exploratory analyses using threshold-free cluster enhancement revealed several spatially distributed clusters showing structural alterations in chronic pain. Most of the clusters coincided with regions implicated in nociceptive processing including the amygdala, thalamus, hippocampus, insula, anterior cingulate cortex, and inferior frontal gyrus. Taken together, these results suggest that chronic pain is associated with subtle, spatially distributed alterations of brain structure.

AimTo characterize cabotegravir population pharmacokinetics using data from phase 1, 2 and 3 studies and evaluate the association of intrinsic and extrinsic factors with pharmacokinetic variability.MethodsAnalyses were implemented in NONMEM and R. Concentrations below the quantitation limit were modelled with likelihood-based approaches. Covariate relationships were evaluated using forward addition (P

MotivationModeling single-cell gene expression trends along cell pseudotime is a crucial analysis for exploring biological processes. Most existing methods rely on nonparametric regression models for their flexibility; however, nonparametric models often provide trends too complex to interpret. Other existing methods use interpretable but restrictive models. Since model interpretability and flexibility are both indispensable for understanding biological processes, the single-cell field needs a model that improves the interpretability and largely maintains the flexibility of nonparametric regression models.ResultsHere, we propose the single-cell generalized trend model (scGTM) for capturing a gene's expression trend, which may be monotone, hill-shaped or valley-shaped, along cell pseudotime. The scGTM has three advantages: (i) it can capture non-monotonic trends that are easy to interpret, (ii) its parameters are biologically interpretable and trend informative, and (iii) it can flexibly accommodate common distributions for modeling gene expression counts. To tackle the complex optimization problems, we use the particle swarm optimization algorithm to find the constrained maximum likelihood estimates for the scGTM parameters. As an application, we analyze several single-cell gene expression datasets using the scGTM and show that scGTM can capture interpretable gene expression trends along cell pseudotime and reveal molecular insights underlying biological processes.Availability and implementationThe Python package scGTM is open-access and available at https://github.com/ElvisCuiHan/scGTM.Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracies of ventilation/perfusion-single photon emission computed tomography (V/Q-SPECT) imaging modalities for acute pulmonary embolism (PE). These included, in addition to V/Q-SPECT, V/Q-SPECT with low-dose computed tomography (CT; V/Q-SPECT-CT), Q-SPECT with low-dose CT (Q-SPECT-CT), and Q-SPECT. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases were searched, and studies included if they studied ≥10 adult participants with acute PE and reported data on the imaging tests' diagnostic performance. Data were meta-analyzed using bivariate random effects regression model. Data from participants totaling 4146 from 11 V/Q-SPECT studies, 785 from 7 V/Q-SPECT-CT studies, 1196 from 7 Q-SPECT-CT studies, and 728 from five Q-SPECT studies were separately meta-analyzed. The bivariate weighted mean sensitivity and specificity were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88–0.97) and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.87–0.98) for V/Q-SPECT, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.88–0.98) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.92–1.00) for V/Q-SPECT-CT, 0.92 (95% CI: 0.79–0.97) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.83–0.96) for Q-SPECT-CT, and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.76–0.95) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.67–0.95) for Q-SPECT studies. The positive and negative likelihood ratios (+LRs and –LRs) were 17.4 (6.9–44.0) and 0.06 (0.03–0.13), 76.7 (11.8–498.0) and 0.06 (0.02–0.13), 11.0 (5.3–22.9) and 0.09 (0.04–0.23), and 6.4 (2.6–15.8) and 0.13 (0.07–0.27) for V/Q-SPECT, V/Q-SPECT-CT, Q-SPECT-CT, and Q-SPECTs, respectively. In the diagnosis of acute PE, this meta-analysis showed that V/Q-SPECT-CT had the highest specificity and +LR. Conversely, Q-SPECT showed the lowest specificity and an unfavorably high −LR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recently developed methods have the potential to harness machine learning in the pursuit of target quantities inspired by causal inference, including inverse weighting, doubly robust estimating equations and substitution estimators like targeted maximum likelihood estimation. There are even more recent augmentations of these procedures that can increase robustness, by adding a layer of cross-validation (cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimation and double machine learning, as applied to substitution and estimating equation approaches, respectively). While these methods have been evaluated individually on simulated and experimental data sets, a comprehensive analysis of their performance across real data based simulations have yet to be conducted. In this work, we benchmark multiple widely used methods for estimation of the average treatment effect using ten different nutrition intervention studies data. A nonparametric regression method, undersmoothed highly adaptive lasso, is used to generate the simulated distribution which preserves important features from the observed data and reproduces a set of true target parameters. For each simulated data, we apply the methods above to estimate the average treatment effects as well as their standard errors and resulting confidence intervals. Based on the analytic results, a general recommendation is put forth for use of the cross-validated variants of both substitution and estimating equation estimators. We conclude that the additional layer of cross-validation helps in avoiding unintentional over-fitting of nuisance parameter functionals and leads to more robust inferences.

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. For mosquitoes, the spatial distribution of close-kin pairs has been used to estimate mean dispersal distance, of relevance to vector-borne disease transmission and novel biocontrol strategies. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. The simulation labels each individual with a unique identification number, enabling close-kin relationships to be inferred for sampled individuals. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration for logistically feasible sampling schemes. Considering a simulated population of 3,000 adult mosquitoes, estimation of adult parameters is accurate when ca. 40 adult females are sampled biweekly over a three month period. Estimation of larval parameters is accurate when adult sampling is supplemented with ca. 120 larvae sampled biweekly over the same period. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost of genome sequencing declines, CKMR holds great promise for characterizing the demography of mosquitoes and comparable insects of epidemiological and agricultural significance.

Many traits are subject to assortative mating, with recent molecular genetic findings confirming longstanding theoretical predictions that assortative mating induces long range dependence across causal variants. However, all marker-based heritability estimators implicitly assume mating is random. We provide mathematical and simulation-based evidence demonstrating that both method-of-moments and likelihood-based estimators are biased in the presence of assortative mating and derive corrected heritability estimators for traits subject to assortment. Finally, we demonstrate that the empirical patterns of estimates across methods and sample sizes for real traits subject to assortative mating are congruent with expected assortative mating-induced biases. For example, marker-based heritability estimates for height are 14% - 23% higher than corrected estimates using UK Biobank data.

In-vivo studies of pulmonary vascular disease and pulmonary hypertension (PH) have provided key insight into the progression of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. Additional in-silico experiments using multiscale computational models have provided further details into biventricular mechanics and hemodynamic function in the presence of PH, yet few have assessed whether model parameters are practically identifiable prior to data collection. Moreover, none have used modeling to devise synergistic experimental designs. To address this knowledge gap, we conduct a practical identifiability analysis of a multiscale cardiovascular model across four simulated experimental designs. We determine a set of parameters using a combination of Morris screening and local sensitivity analysis, and test for practical identifiability using profile likelihood-based confidence intervals. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to quantify parameter and model forecast uncertainty in the presence of noise corrupted data. Our results show that model calibration to only RV pressure suffers from practical identifiability issues and suffers from large forecast uncertainty in output space. In contrast, parameter and model forecast uncertainty is substantially reduced once additional left ventricular (LV) pressure and volume data is included. A comparison between single point systolic and diastolic LV data and continuous, time-dependent LV pressure-volume data reveals that at least some quantitative data from both ventricles should be included for future experimental studies.

Constructing a confidence interval for the ratio of bivariate normal means is a classical problem in statistics. Several methods have been proposed in the literature. The Fieller method is known as an exact method, but can produce an unbounded confidence interval if the denominator of the ratio is not significantly deviated from 0; while the delta and some numeric methods are all bounded, they are only first-order correct. Motivated by a real-world problem, we propose the penalized Fieller method, which employs the same principle as the Fieller method, but adopts a penalized likelihood approach to estimate the denominator. The proposed method has a simple closed form, and can always produce a bounded confidence interval by selecting a suitable penalty parameter. Moreover, the new method is shown to be second-order correct under the bivariate normality assumption, that is, its coverage probability will converge to the nominal level faster than other bounded methods. Simulation results show that our proposed method generally outperforms the existing methods in terms of controlling the coverage probability and the confidence width and is particularly useful when the denominator does not have adequate power to reject being 0. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to the interval estimation of the median response dose in pharmacology studies to show its practical usefulness.

ObjectiveSulfonylureas, the first available drugs for the management of type 2 diabetes, remain widely prescribed today. However, there exists significant variability in glycemic response to treatment. We aimed to establish heritability of sulfonylurea response and identify genetic variants and interacting treatments associated with HbA1c reduction.Research design and methodsAs an initiative of the Metformin Genetics Plus Consortium (MetGen Plus) and the DIabetes REsearCh on patient straTification (DIRECT) consortium, 5,485 White Europeans with type 2 diabetes treated with sulfonylureas were recruited from six referral centers in Europe and North America. We first estimated heritability using the generalized restricted maximum likelihood approach and then undertook genome-wide association studies of glycemic response to sulfonylureas measured as HbA1c reduction after 12 months of therapy followed by meta-analysis. These results were supported by acute glipizide challenge in humans who were naïve to type 2 diabetes medications, cis expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL), and functional validation in cellular models. Finally, we examined for possible drug-drug-gene interactions.ResultsAfter establishing that sulfonylurea response is heritable (mean ± SEM 37 ± 11%), we identified two independent loci near the GXYLT1 and SLCO1B1 genes associated with HbA1c reduction at a genome-wide scale (P < 5 × 10-8). The C allele at rs1234032, near GXYLT1, was associated with 0.14% (1.5 mmol/mol), P = 2.39 × 10-8), lower reduction in HbA1c. Similarly, the C allele was associated with higher glucose trough levels (β = 1.61, P = 0.005) in healthy volunteers in the SUGAR-MGH given glipizide (N = 857). In 3,029 human whole blood samples, the C allele is a cis eQTL for increased expression of GXYLT1 (β = 0.21, P = 2.04 × 10-58). The C allele of rs10770791, in an intronic region of SLCO1B1, was associated with 0.11% (1.2 mmol/mol) greater reduction in HbA1c (P = 4.80 × 10-8). In 1,183 human liver samples, the C allele at rs10770791 is a cis eQTL for reduced SLCO1B1 expression (P = 1.61 × 10-7), which, together with functional studies in cells expressing SLCO1B1, supports a key role for hepatic SLCO1B1 (encoding OATP1B1) in regulation of sulfonylurea transport. Further, a significant interaction between statin use and SLCO1B1 genotype was observed (P = 0.001). In statin nonusers, C allele homozygotes at rs10770791 had a large absolute reduction in HbA1c (0.48 ± 0.12% [5.2 ± 1.26 mmol/mol]), equivalent to that associated with initiation of a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor.ConclusionsWe have identified clinically important genetic effects at genome-wide levels of significance, and important drug-drug-gene interactions, which include commonly prescribed statins. With increasing availability of genetic data embedded in clinical records these findings will be important in prescribing glucose-lowering drugs.

Methods for electro- or magnetoencephalography (EEG/MEG) based brain source imaging (BSI) using sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) have been demonstrated to achieve excellent performance in situations with low numbers of distinct active sources, such as event-related designs. This paper extends the theory and practice of SBL in three important ways. First, we reformulate three existing SBL algorithms under the majorization-minimization (MM) framework. This unification perspective not only provides a useful theoretical framework for comparing different algorithms in terms of their convergence behavior, but also provides a principled recipe for constructing novel algorithms with specific properties by designing appropriate bounds of the Bayesian marginal likelihood function. Second, building on the MM principle, we propose a novel method called LowSNR-BSI that achieves favorable source reconstruction performance in low signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) settings. Third, precise knowledge of the noise level is a crucial requirement for accurate source reconstruction. Here we present a novel principled technique to accurately learn the noise variance from the data either jointly within the source reconstruction procedure or using one of two proposed cross-validation strategies. Empirically, we could show that the monotonous convergence behavior predicted from MM theory is confirmed in numerical experiments. Using simulations, we further demonstrate the advantage of LowSNR-BSI over conventional SBL in low-SNR regimes, and the advantage of learned noise levels over estimates derived from baseline data. To demonstrate the usefulness of our novel approach, we show neurophysiologically plausible source reconstructions on averaged auditory evoked potential data.

Combined use of PET and dual-energy CT provides complementary information for multi-parametric imaging. PET-enabled dual-energy CT combines a low-energy X-ray CT image with a high-energy γ-ray CT (GCT) image reconstructed from time-of-flight PET emission data to enable dual-energy CT material decomposition on a PET/CT scanner. The maximum-likelihood attenuation and activity (MLAA) algorithm has been used for GCT reconstruction but suffers from noise. Kernel MLAA exploits an X-ray CT image prior through the kernel framework to guide GCT reconstruction and has demonstrated substantial improvements in noise suppression. However, similar to other kernel methods for image reconstruction, the existing kernel MLAA uses image intensity-based features to construct the kernel representation, which is not always robust and may lead to suboptimal reconstruction with artefacts. In this paper, we propose a modified kernel method by using an autoencoder convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract an intrinsic feature set from the X-ray CT image prior. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare the autoencoder CNN-derived feature representation with raw image patches for evaluation of kernel MLAA for GCT image reconstruction and dual-energy multi-material decomposition. The results show that the autoencoder kernel MLAA method can achieve a significant image quality improvement for GCT and material decomposition as compared to the existing kernel MLAA algorithm. A weakness of the proposed method is its potential over-smoothness in a bone region, indicating the importance of further optimization in future work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Synergistic tomographic image reconstruction: part 2'.

Modeling human diseases as networks simplify complex multi-cellular processes, helps understand patterns in noisy data that humans cannot find, and thereby improves precision in prediction. Using Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) as an example, here we outline an unbiased AI-assisted approach for target identification and validation. A network was built in which clusters of genes are connected by directed edges that highlight asymmetric Boolean relationships. Using machine-learning, a path of continuum states was pinpointed, which most effectively predicted disease outcome. This path was enriched in gene-clusters that maintain the integrity of the gut epithelial barrier. We exploit this insight to prioritize one target, choose appropriate pre-clinical murine models for target validation and design patient-derived organoid models. Potential for treatment efficacy is confirmed in patient-derived organoids using multivariate analyses. This AI-assisted approach identifies a first-in-class gut barrier-protective agent in IBD and predicted Phase-III success of candidate agents.

The effectiveness of immune responses depends on the precision of stimulus-responsive gene expression programs. Cells specify which genes to express by activating stimulus-specific combinations of stimulus-induced transcription factors (TFs). Their activities are decoded by a gene regulatory strategy (GRS) associated with each response gene. Here, we examined whether the GRSs of target genes may be inferred from stimulus-response (input-output) datasets, which remains an unresolved model-identifiability challenge. We developed a mechanistic modeling framework and computational workflow to determine the identifiability of all possible combinations of synergistic (AND) or non-synergistic (OR) GRSs involving three transcription factors. Considering different sets of perturbations for stimulus-response studies, we found that two thirds of GRSs are easily distinguishable but that substantially more quantitative data is required to distinguish the remaining third. To enhance the accuracy of the inference with timecourse experimental data, we developed an advanced error model that avoids error overestimates by distinguishing between value and temporal error. Incorporating this error model into a Bayesian framework, we show that GRS models can be identified for individual genes by considering multiple datasets. Our analysis rationalizes the allocation of experimental resources by identifying most informative TF stimulation conditions. Applying this computational workflow to experimental data of immune response genes in macrophages, we found that a much greater fraction of genes are combinatorially controlled than previously reported by considering compensation among transcription factors. Specifically, we revealed that a group of known NFκB target genes may also be regulated by IRF3, which is supported by chromatin immuno-precipitation analysis. Our study provides a computational workflow for designing and interpreting stimulus-response gene expression studies to identify underlying gene regulatory strategies and further a mechanistic understanding.

Parametric imaging has been shown to provide better quantitation physiologically than SUV imaging in PET. With the increased sensitivity from a recently developed total-body PET scanner, whole-body scans with higher temporal resolution become possible for dynamic analysis and parametric imaging. In this paper, we focus on deriving the parameter k1 using compartmental modeling and on developing a method to acquire whole-body 18F-FDG PET parametric images using only the first 90 s of the postinjection scan data with the total-body PET system. Methods: Dynamic projections were acquired with a time interval of 1 s for the first 30 s and a time interval of 2 s for the following minute. Image-derived input functions were acquired from the reconstructed dynamic sequences in the ascending aorta. A 1-tissue-compartment model with 4 parameters (k1, k2, blood fraction, and delay time) was used. A maximum-likelihood-based estimation method was developed with the 1-tissue-compartment model solution. The accuracy of the acquired parameters was compared with the ones estimated using a 2-tissue-compartment irreversible model with 1-h-long data. Results: All 4 parametric images were successfully calculated using data from 2 volunteers. By comparing the time-activity curves acquired from the volumes of interest, we showed that the parameters estimated using our method were able to predict the time-activity curves of the early dynamics of 18F-FDG in different organs. The delay-time effects for different organs were also clearly visible in the reconstructed delay-time image with delay variations of as large as 40 s. The estimated parameters using both 90-s data and 1-h data agreed well for k1 and blood fraction, whereas a large difference in k2 was found between the 90-s and 1-h data, suggesting k2 cannot be reliably estimated from the 90-s scan. Conclusion: We have shown that with total-body PET and the increased sensitivity, it is possible to estimate parametric images based on the very early dynamics after 18F-FDG injection. The estimated k1 might potentially be used clinically as an indicator for identifying abnormalities.

The rooting of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny is important for understanding the origin and early spread of the virus. Previously published phylogenies have used different rootings that do not always provide consistent results. We investigate several different strategies for rooting the SARS-CoV-2 tree and provide measures of statistical uncertainty for all methods. We show that methods based on the molecular clock tend to place the root in the B clade, whereas methods based on outgroup rooting tend to place the root in the A clade. The results from the two approaches are statistically incompatible, possibly as a consequence of deviations from a molecular clock or excess back-mutations. We also show that none of the methods provide strong statistical support for the placement of the root in any particular edge of the tree. These results suggest that phylogenetic evidence alone is unlikely to identify the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and we caution against strong inferences regarding the early spread of the virus based solely on such evidence.

Genetic linkage causes the fate of new mutations in a population to be contingent on the genetic background on which they appear. This makes it challenging to identify how individual mutations affect fitness. To overcome this challenge, we developed marginal path likelihood (MPL), a method to infer selection from evolutionary histories that resolves genetic linkage. Validation on real and simulated data sets shows that MPL is fast and accurate, outperforming existing inference approaches. We found that resolving linkage is crucial for accurately quantifying selection in complex evolving populations, which we demonstrate through a quantitative analysis of intrahost HIV-1 evolution using multiple patient data sets. Linkage effects generated by variants that sweep rapidly through the population are particularly strong, extending far across the genome. Taken together, our results argue for the importance of resolving linkage in studies of natural selection.

Detection of translational noncrystallographic symmetry (TNCS) can be critical for success in crystallographic phasing, particularly when molecular-replacement models are poor or anomalous phasing information is weak. If the correct TNCS is detected then expected intensity factors for each reflection can be refined, so that the maximum-likelihood functions underlying molecular replacement and single-wavelength anomalous dispersion use appropriate structure-factor normalization and variance terms. Here, an analysis of a curated database of protein structures from the Protein Data Bank to investigate how TNCS manifests in the Patterson function is described. These studies informed an algorithm for the detection of TNCS, which includes a method for detecting the number of vectors involved in any commensurate modulation (the TNCS order). The algorithm generates a ranked list of possible TNCS associations in the asymmetric unit for exploration during structure solution.

Individuals diagnosed with colorectal adenomas with high-risk features during screening colonoscopy have increased risk for the development of subsequent adenomas and colorectal cancer. While US guidelines recommend surveillance colonoscopy at 3 years in this high-risk population, surveillance uptake is suboptimal. To inform future interventions to improve surveillance uptake, we sought to assess surveillance rates and identify facilitators of uptake in a large integrated health system. We utilized a cohort of patients with a diagnosis of ≥ 1 tubular adenoma (TA) with high-risk features (TA ≥ 1 cm, TA with villous features, TA with high-grade dysplasia, or ≥ 3 TA of any size) on colonoscopy between 2013 and 2016. Surveillance colonoscopy completion within 3.5 years of diagnosis of an adenoma with high-risk features was our primary outcome. We evaluated surveillance uptake over time and utilized logistic regression to detect factors associated with completion of surveillance colonoscopy. The final cohort was comprised of 405 patients. 172 (42.5%) patients successfully completed surveillance colonoscopy by 3.5 years. Use of a patient reminder (telephone, electronic message, or letter) for due surveillance (adjusted odds = 1.9; 95%CI = 1.2-2.8) and having ≥ 1 gastroenterology (GI) visit after diagnosis of an adenoma with high-risk features (adjusted odds = 2.6; 95%CI = 1.6-4.2) significantly predicted surveillance colonoscopy completion at 3.5 years. For patients diagnosed with adenomas with high-risk features, surveillance colonoscopy uptake is suboptimal and frequently occurs after the 3-year surveillance recommendation. Patient reminders and visitation with GI after index colonoscopy are associated with timely surveillance completion. Our findings highlight potential health system interventions to increase timely surveillance uptake for patients diagnosed with adenomas with high-risk features.

Humans readily form social impressions, such as attractiveness and trustworthiness, from a stranger's facial features. Understanding the provenance of these impressions has clear scientific importance and societal implications. Motivated by the efficient coding hypothesis of brain representation, as well as Claude Shannon's theoretical result that maximally efficient representational systems assign shorter codes to statistically more typical data (quantified as log likelihood), we suggest that social "liking" of faces increases with statistical typicality. Combining human behavioral data and computational modeling, we show that perceived attractiveness, trustworthiness, dominance, and valence of a face image linearly increase with its statistical typicality (log likelihood). We also show that statistical typicality can at least partially explain the role of symmetry in attractiveness perception. Additionally, by assuming that the brain focuses on a task-relevant subset of facial features and assessing log likelihood of a face using those features, our model can explain the "ugliness-in-averageness" effect found in social psychology, whereby otherwise attractive, intercategory faces diminish in attractiveness during a categorization task.

After its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late November or early December 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus rapidly spread globally. Genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 allows the reconstruction of its transmission history, although this is contingent on sampling. We analyzed 453 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between 20 February and 15 March 2020 from infected patients in Washington state in the United States. We find that most SARS-CoV-2 infections sampled during this time derive from a single introduction in late January or early February 2020, which subsequently spread locally before active community surveillance was implemented.

Alterations in the human glycome have been associated with cancer and autoimmunity. Thus, constructing a site-specific map of the human glycome for biomarker research and discovery has been a highly sought-after objective. However, due to analytical barriers, comprehensive site-specific glycoprofiling is difficult to perform. To develop a platform to detect easily quantifiable, site-specific, disease-associated glycan alterations for clinical applications, we have adapted the multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry method for use in glycan biomarker research. The adaptations allow for highly precise site-specific glycan monitoring with minimum sample prep. Using this technique, we successfully mapped out the relative abundances of the most common 159 glycopeptides in the plasma of 97 healthy volunteers. This plasma glycome map revealed 796 significant (FDR

Positron emission tomography (PET) suffers from limited spatial resolution in current head and neck cancer management. We are building a dual-panel high-resolution PET system to aid the detection of tumor involvement in small lymph nodes ([Formula: see text]10 mm in diameter). The system is based on cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) detectors with cross-strip electrode readout (1 mm anode pitch and 5 mm cathode pitch). One challenge of the dual-panel system is that the limited angular coverage of the imaging volume leads to artifacts in reconstructed images, such as the elongation of lesions. In this work, we leverage a penalized maximum-likelihood (PML) reconstruction for the limited-angle PET system. The dissimilarity between the image to be reconstructed and a prior image from a low-resolution whole-body scanner is penalized. An image-based resolution model is incorporated into the regularization. Computer simulations were used to evaluate the performance of the method. Results demonstrate that the elongation of the 6-mm and 8-mm diameter hot spheres is eliminated with the regularization strength γ being 0.02 or larger. The PML reconstruction yields higher contrast recovery coefficient (CRC) of hot spheres compared to the maximum-likelihood reconstruction, as well as the low-resolution whole-body image, across all hot sphere sizes tested (3, 4, 6, and 8 mm). The method studied in this work provides a way to mitigate the limited-angle artifacts in the reconstruction from limited-angle PET data, making the high-resolution dual-panel dedicated head and neck PET system promising for head and neck cancer management.

Inference of admixture proportions is a classical statistical problem in population genetics. Standard methods implicitly assume that both parents of an individual have the same admixture fraction. However, this is rarely the case in real data. In this paper we show that the distribution of admixture tract lengths in a genome contains information about the admixture proportions of the ancestors of an individual. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework for estimating the admixture proportions of the immediate ancestors of an individual, i.e. a type of decomposition of an individual's admixture proportions into further subsets of ancestral proportions in the ancestors. Based on a genealogical model for admixture tracts, we develop an efficient algorithm for computing the sampling probability of the genome from a single individual, as a function of the admixture proportions of the ancestors of this individual. This allows us to perform probabilistic inference of admixture proportions of ancestors only using the genome of an extant individual. We perform extensive simulations to quantify the error in the estimation of ancestral admixture proportions under various conditions. To illustrate the utility of the method, we apply it to real genetic data.

Intensity-based likelihood functions in crystallographic applications have the potential to enhance the quality of structures derived from marginal diffraction data. Their usage, however, is complicated by the ability to efficiently compute these target functions. Here, a numerical quadrature is developed that allows the rapid evaluation of intensity-based likelihood functions in crystallographic applications. By using a sequence of change-of-variable transformations, including a nonlinear domain-compression operation, an accurate, robust and efficient quadrature is constructed. The approach is flexible and can incorporate different noise models with relative ease.

Despite the substantial role that chickens have played in human societies across the world, both the geographic and temporal origins of their domestication remain controversial. To address this issue, we analyzed 863 genomes from a worldwide sampling of chickens and representatives of all four species of wild jungle fowl and each of the five subspecies of red jungle fowl (RJF). Our study suggests that domestic chickens were initially derived from the RJF subspecies Gallus gallus spadiceus whose present-day distribution is predominantly in southwestern China, northern Thailand and Myanmar. Following their domestication, chickens were translocated across Southeast and South Asia where they interbred locally with both RJF subspecies and other jungle fowl species. In addition, our results show that the White Leghorn chicken breed possesses a mosaic of divergent ancestries inherited from other subspecies of RJF. Despite the strong episodic gene flow from geographically divergent lineages of jungle fowls, our analyses show that domestic chickens undergo genetic adaptations that underlie their unique behavioral, morphological and reproductive traits. Our study provides novel insights into the evolutionary history of domestic chickens and a valuable resource to facilitate ongoing genetic and functional investigations of the world's most numerous domestic animal.

To investigate the time origin, genetic diversity, and transmission dynamics of the recent 2019-nCoV outbreak in China and beyond, a total of 32 genomes of virus strains sampled from China, Thailand, and the USA with sampling dates between 24 December 2019 and 23 January 2020 were analyzed. Phylogenetic, transmission network, and likelihood-mapping analyses of the genome sequences were performed. On the basis of the likelihood-mapping analysis, the increasing tree-like signals (from 0% to 8.2%, 18.2%, and 25.4%) over time may be indicative of increasing genetic diversity of 2019-nCoV in human hosts. We identified three phylogenetic clusters using the Bayesian inference framework and three transmission clusters using transmission network analysis, with only one cluster identified by both methods using the above genome sequences of 2019-nCoV strains. The estimated mean evolutionary rate for 2019-nCoV ranged from 1.7926 × 10-3 to 1.8266 × 10-3 substitutions per site per year. On the basis of our study, undertaking epidemiological investigations and genomic data surveillance could positively impact public health in terms of guiding prevention efforts to reduce 2019-nCOV transmission in real-time.

The Gaussian graphical model (GGM) is an increasingly popular technique used in psychology to characterize relationships among observed variables. These relationships are represented as elements in the precision matrix. Standardizing the precision matrix and reversing the sign yields corresponding partial correlations that imply pairwise dependencies in which the effects of all other variables have been controlled for. The graphical lasso (glasso) has emerged as the default estimation method, which uses ℓ1 -based regularization. The glasso was developed and optimized for high-dimensional settings where the number of variables (p) exceeds the number of observations (n), which is uncommon in psychological applications. Here we propose to go 'back to the basics', wherein the precision matrix is first estimated with non-regularized maximum likelihood and then Fisher Z transformed confidence intervals are used to determine non-zero relationships. We first show the exact correspondence between the confidence level and specificity, which is due to 1 minus specificity denoting the false positive rate (i.e., α). With simulations in low-dimensional settings (p ≪ n), we then demonstrate superior performance compared to the glasso for detecting the non-zero effects. Further, our results indicate that the glasso is inconsistent for the purpose of model selection and does not control the false discovery rate, whereas the proposed method converges on the true model and directly controls error rates. We end by discussing implications for estimating GGMs in psychology.

Changing precipitation patterns resulting from climate change are likely to have deleterious effects on health. We examined historical relationships between precipitation and diarrhea, cough, and fever among children aged 0-24 months in Uganda, a drought-prone region. Using data from the Uganda National Panel Survey from 2009 to 2012 (2,324 observations), we specified logistic regression models evaluating the relationships between deviations from annual and 30-day precipitation and caregiver-reported diarrhea, cough, and fever, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and including enumeration of area-fixed effects. Nonlinearities were assessed using restricted cubic splines. We observed nonlinear (J-shaped) relationships between deviations from annual precipitation and the three child illness outcomes. These J-shaped relationships represented steep reductions in illness with increasing precipitation at lower levels of rainfall and a leveling off at higher levels, with a small increase at higher levels. We did not find evidence for a relationship between 30-day precipitation and childhood illness. Trends of reduced rainfall in Uganda are likely having negative effects on child health.

Maximum likelihood estimators are used extensively to estimate unknown parameters of stochastic trait evolution models on phylogenetic trees. Although the MLE has been proven to converge to the true value in the independent-sample case, we cannot appeal to this result because trait values of different species are correlated due to shared evolutionary history. In this paper, we consider a 2-state symmetric model for a single binary trait and investigate the theoretical properties of the MLE for the transition rate in the large-tree limit. Here, the large-tree limit is a theoretical scenario where the number of taxa increases to infinity and we can observe the trait values for all species. Specifically, we prove that the MLE converges to the true value under some regularity conditions. These conditions ensure that the tree shape is not too irregular, and holds for many practical scenarios such as trees with bounded edges, trees generated from the Yule (pure birth) process, and trees generated from the coalescent point process. Our result also provides an upper bound for the distance between the MLE and the true value.

The marginal likelihood of a model is a key quantity for assessing the evidence provided by the data in support of a model. The marginal likelihood is the normalizing constant for the posterior density, obtained by integrating the product of the likelihood and the prior with respect to model parameters. Thus, the computational burden of computing the marginal likelihood scales with the dimension of the parameter space. In phylogenetics, where we work with tree topologies that are high-dimensional models, standard approaches to computing marginal likelihoods are very slow. Here, we study methods to quickly compute the marginal likelihood of a single fixed tree topology. We benchmark the speed and accuracy of 19 different methods to compute the marginal likelihood of phylogenetic topologies on a suite of real data sets under the JC69 model. These methods include several new ones that we develop explicitly to solve this problem, as well as existing algorithms that we apply to phylogenetic models for the first time. Altogether, our results show that the accuracy of these methods varies widely, and that accuracy does not necessarily correlate with computational burden. Our newly developed methods are orders of magnitude faster than standard approaches, and in some cases, their accuracy rivals the best established estimators.

Dressel and Farid recently found that laypeople were as accurate as statistical algorithms in predicting whether a defendant would reoffend, casting doubt on the value of risk assessment tools in the criminal justice system. We report the results of a replication and extension of Dressel and Farid's experiment. Under conditions similar to the original study, we found nearly identical results, with humans and algorithms performing comparably. However, algorithms beat humans in the three other datasets we examined. The performance gap between humans and algorithms was particularly pronounced when, in a departure from the original study, participants were not provided with immediate feedback on the accuracy of their responses. Algorithms also outperformed humans when the information provided for predictions included an enriched (versus restricted) set of risk factors. These results suggest that algorithms can outperform human predictions of recidivism in ecologically valid settings.