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Author

Lim, S.S., Selvaraj, A., Ng, Z.Y., Palanisamy, M., Mickmaray, S., Cheong, P.C.H., and Lim, R.L.H.

Subjects
Microbiology, QR1-502
Published
2018

6. The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

Author

Reiner, R.C., Welgan, C.A., Troeger, C.E., Baumann, M.M., Weiss, D.J., Deshpande, A., Blacker, B.F., Miller-Petrie, M.K., Earl, L., Bhatt, S., Abolhassani, H., Abosetugn, A.E., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O.O., Aghaali, M., Aji, B., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Alhassan, R.K., Ali, S., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, A.T., Amini, S., Amugsi, D.A., Ancuceanu, R., Andrei, C.L., Ansari, F., Anvari, D., Appiah, S.C.Y., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Atout, M.M.W., Ausloos, M., Ausloos, F., Ayanore, M.A., Aynalem, Y.A., Azene, Z.N., Badawi, A., Baig, A.A., Banach, M., Bedi, N., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhandari, D., Bhardwaj, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhutta, Z.A., Bijani, A., Birhanu, T.T.M., Bitew, Z.W., Boloor, A., Brady, O.J., Butt, Z.A., Car, J., Carvalho, F., Casey, D.C., Chattu, V.K., Chowdhury, M.A.K., Chu, D.-., Coelho, C.H., Cook, A.J., Damiani, G., Daoud, F., Gela, J.D., Darwish, A.H., Daryani, A., Das, J.K., Davis Weaver, N., Deribe, K., Desalew, A., Dharmaratne, S.D., Dianatinasab, M., Diaz, D., Djalalinia, S., Dorostkar, F., Dubljanin, E., Duko, B., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Effiong, A., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., Enany, S., Fattahi, N., Feigin, V.L., Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Folayan, M.O., Foroutan, M., Frostad, J.J., Fukumoto, T., Gaidhane, A.M., Gebrekrstos, H.G.G.K., Gebremeskel, L., Gebreslassie, A.A., Gething, P.W., Gezae, K.E., Ghadiri, K., Ghashghaee, A., Golechha, M., Gubari, M.I.M., Hadgu, F.B., Hamidi, S., Handiso, D.W., Hashi, A., Hassan, S., Hayat, K., Herteliu, C., H. C., H., Holla, R., Hosseinzadeh, M., Househ, M., Hussain, R., Hwang, B.-., Ibitoye, S.E., Ilesanmi, O.S., Ilic, I.M., Ilic, M.D., Irvani, S.S.N., Jaafari, J., Javaheri, T., Jha, R.P., Johnson, K.B., Jonas, J.B., Jozwiak, J.J., Kabir, A., Kalhor, R., Kanchan, T., Karch, A., Kayode, G.A., Keiyoro, P.N., Khader, Y.S., Khalil, I.A., Khan, M.N., Khan, M., Khan, G., Khatab, K., Khater, M.M., Khatib, M.N., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y.J., Kimokoti, R.W., Kisa, S., Kisa, A., Kissoon, N., Kochhar, S., Koolivand, A., Kopec, J.A., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Kumar, P., Kurmi, O.P., Kusuma, D., Lal, D.K., Lami, F.H., Landires, I., Lansingh, V.C., Lasrado, S., La Vecchia, C., Lazzar-Atwood, A., Lee, P.H., Legrand, K.E., Lewycka, S., Li, B., Lim, S.S., Lindstedt, P.A., Liu, X., Longbottom, J., Lopez, A.D., Magdy Abd El Razek, H., Mahasha, P.W., Maleki, A., Mamun, A.A., Mansournia, M.A., Marczak, L.B., Martins-Melo, F.R., Mayala, B.K., Meharie, B.G., Melese, A., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R.G., Mengesha, E.W., Mensah, G.A., Meretoja, T.J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T.R., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Moazen, B., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N., Mohammadi, S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A.H., Moradi, M., Moradzadeh, R., Moraga, P., Mosser, J.F., Murray, C.J.L., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A.J., Nazari, J., Ndejjo, R., Negoi, I., Ngunjiri, J.W., Nguyen, Q.A.P., Nguyen, H.L.T., Nnaji, C.A., Noubiap, J.J., Nunez-Samudio, V., Olagunju, A.T., Olusanya, J.O., Olusanya, B.O., Omer, M.O., Onwujekwe, O.E., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Owolabi, M.O., P A, M., Padubidri, J.R., Pana, A., Peprah, E.K., Pham, H.Q., Pigott, D.M., Pirestani, M., Postma, M.J., Pottoo, F.H., Pourjafar, H., Quazi Syed, Z., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahman, M.H.U., Rao, S.J., Rao, P.C., Rathi, P., Rawaf, S., Rawaf, D.L., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Regassa, L.D., Renzaho, A.M.N., Rezaei, N., Rezai, M.S., Ribeiro, A.I., Rickard, J., Rios-Gonzalez, C.M., Rumisha, S.F., Sabour, S., Sajadi, S.M., Salomon, J.A., Samadi Kafil, H., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Sartorius, B., Saxena, D., Schaeffer, L.E., Senthilkumaran, S., Sha, F., Shaheen, A.A., Shaikh, M.A., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shibuya, K., Shigematsu, M., Il Shin, J., Simonetti, B., Singh, J.A., Smith, D.L., Soheili, A., Sokhan, A., Spurlock, E.E., Sreeramareddy, C.T., Sufiyan, M.B., Swartz, S.J., Tadesse, D.B., Tamiru, A.T., Tefera, Y.G., Temsah, M.-., Tessema, Z.T., Titova, M.V., Tran, B.X., Truong, P.N., Unnikrishnan, B., Upadhyay, E., Vasankari, T.J., Vasseghian, Y., Violante, F.S., G. T., V., Waheed, Y., Wamai, R.G., Wassie, E.G., Welay, F.T., Wickramasinghe, N.D., Wiens, K.E., Wijeratne, T., Wiysonge, C.S., Wondmeneh, T.G., Yamada, T., Yaya, S., Yeshitila, Y.G., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Yu, C., Yuce, D., Yusefzadeh, H., Zaidi, Z., Zamanian, M., Zangeneh, A., Zhang, Z.-., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Hay, S.I., Reiner, RC Jr, Welgan, CA, Troeger, CE, Baumann, MM, Duko, Bereket, Hay, Simon I, LBD Triple Collaborators, Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Reiner, R, Welgan, C, Troeger, C, Baumann, M, Weiss, D, Deshpande, A, Blacker, B, Miller-Petrie, M, Earl, L, Bhatt, S, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, A, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Aghaali, M, Aji, B, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alhassan, R, Ali, S, Alizade, H, Aljunid, S, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Amini, S, Amugsi, D, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, C, Ansari, F, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Atout, M, Ausloos, M, Ausloos, F, Ayanore, M, Aynalem, Y, Azene, Z, Badawi, A, Baig, A, Banach, M, Bedi, N, Bhagavathula, A, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, Z, Bijani, A, Birhanu, T, Bitew, Z, Boloor, A, Brady, O, Butt, Z, Car, J, Carvalho, F, Casey, D, Chattu, V, Chowdhury, M, Chu, D, Coelho, C, Cook, A, Damiani, G, Daoud, F, Gela, J, Darwish, A, Daryani, A, Das, J, Davis Weaver, N, Deribe, K, Desalew, A, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Effiong, A, El Sayed Zaki, M, El Tantawi, M, Enany, S, Fattahi, N, Feigin, V, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Folayan, M, Foroutan, M, Frostad, J, Fukumoto, T, Gaidhane, A, Gebrekrstos, H, Gebremeskel, L, Gebreslassie, A, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, M, Hadgu, F, Hamidi, S, Handiso, D, Hashi, A, Hassan, S, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, H, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hussain, R, Hwang, B, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Irvani, S, Jaafari, J, Javaheri, T, Jha, R, Johnson, K, Jonas, J, Jozwiak, J, Kabir, A, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Karch, A, Kayode, G, Keiyoro, P, Khader, Y, Khalil, I, Khan, M, Khan, G, Khatab, K, Khater, M, Khatib, M, Kianipour, N, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kissoon, N, Kochhar, S, Koolivand, A, Kopec, J, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Kumar, P, Kurmi, O, Kusuma, D, Lal, D, Lami, F, Landires, I, Lansingh, V, Lasrado, S, La Vecchia, C, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Lee, P, Legrand, K, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Lim, S, Lindstedt, P, Liu, X, Longbottom, J, Lopez, A, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Mahasha, P, Maleki, A, Mamun, A, Mansournia, M, Marczak, L, Martins-Melo, F, Mayala, B, Meharie, B, Melese, A, Mendoza, W, Menezes, R, Mengesha, E, Mensah, G, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miller, T, Mirrakhimov, E, Moazen, B, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N, Mohammadi, S, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, J, Murray, C, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, A, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, Q, Nguyen, H, Nnaji, C, Noubiap, J, Nunez-Samudio, V, Olagunju, A, Olusanya, J, Olusanya, B, Omer, M, Onwujekwe, O, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, S, Owolabi, M, P A, M, Padubidri, J, Pana, A, Peprah, E, Pham, H, Pigott, D, Pirestani, M, Postma, M, Pottoo, F, Pourjafar, H, Quazi Syed, Z, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rao, S, Rao, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, D, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, L, Renzaho, A, Rezaei, N, Rezai, M, Ribeiro, A, Rickard, J, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Rumisha, S, Sabour, S, Sajadi, S, Salomon, J, Samadi Kafil, H, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sartorius, B, Saxena, D, Schaeffer, L, Senthilkumaran, S, Sha, F, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shigematsu, M, Il Shin, J, Simonetti, B, Singh, J, Smith, D, Soheili, A, Sokhan, A, Spurlock, E, Sreeramareddy, C, Sufiyan, M, Swartz, S, Tadesse, D, Tamiru, A, Tefera, Y, Temsah, M, Tessema, Z, Titova, M, Tran, B, Truong, P, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Vasankari, T, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, F, Vu, G, Waheed, Y, Wamai, R, Wassie, E, Welay, F, Wickramasinghe, N, Wiens, K, Wijeratne, T, Wiysonge, C, Wondmeneh, T, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yeshitila, Y, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yuce, D, Yusefzadeh, H, Zaidi, Z, Zamanian, M, Zangeneh, A, Zhang, Z, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, S, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Clinicum, Helsinki University Hospital Area, and Department of Oncology

Subjects
Multidisciplinary, Settore MED/42 - Igiene Generale e Applicata, 3122 Cancers, malaria, General Physics and Astronomy, COVID-19, General Chemistry, 3126 Surgery, anesthesiology, intensive care, radiology, infectious diseases, Sub-Saharian Africa, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica, Children mortality, epidemiology, biogeography
Abstract

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s). Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.

Published
2022

10. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Abbafati, C., Machado, D.B., Cislaghi, B., Salman, O.M., Karanikolos, M., McKee, M., Abbas, K.M., Brady, O.J., Larson, H.J., Trias-Llimós, S., Cummins, S., Langan, S.M., Sartorius, B., Hafiz, A., Jenabi, E., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N., Borzouei, S., Azarian, G., Khazaei, S., Abbasi, M., Asghari, B., Masoumi, S., Komaki, H., Taherkhani, A., Adabi, M., Abbasifard, M., Bazmandegan, G., Kamiab, Z., Vakilian, A., Anjomshoa, M., Mokari, A., Sabour, S., Shahbaz, M., Saeedi, R., Ahmadieh, H., Yousefinezhadi, T., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Nikbakhsh, R., Safi, S., Asgari, S., Irvani, S.N., Jahanmehr, N., Ramezanzadeh, K., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Khayamzadeh, M., Abbastabar, H., Shirkoohi, R., Fazlzadeh, M., Janjani, H., Hosseini, M., Mansournia, M., Tohidinik, H., Bakhtiari, A., Fazaeli, A., Mousavi, S., Hasanzadeh, A., Nabavizadeh, B., Malekzadeh, R., Hashemian, M., Pourshams, A., Salimzadeh, H., Sepanlou, S.G., Afarideh, M., Esteghamati, A., Esteghamati, S., Ghajar, A., Heidari, B., Rezaei, N., Mohamadi, E., Rahimi-Movaghar, A., Rahim, F., Eskandarieh, S., Sahraian, M., Mohebi, F., Aminorroaya, A., Ebrahimi, H., Farzadfar, F., Mohajer, B., Pishgar, F., Saeedi Moghaddam, S., Shabani, M., Zarafshan, H., Abolhassani, H., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Heidari-Soureshjani, R., Abdollahi, M., Farahmand, M., Salamati, P., Mehrabi Nasab, E., Tajdini, M., Aghamir, S., Mirzaei, R., Dibaji Forooshani, Z., Khater, M.M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abualhasan, A., El-Jaafary, S.I., Hassan, A., Elsharkawy, A., Khater, A.M., Elhabashy, H.R., Salem, M.R.R., Salem, H., Sadeghi, M., Jafarinia, M., Amini-Rarani, M., Mohammadifard, N., Sarrafzadegan, N., Abdollahpour, I., Sarveazad, A., Tehrani-Banihashemi, A., Yoosefi Lebni, J., Manafi, N., Pazoki Toroudi, H., Dorostkar, F., Alipour, V., Sheikhtaheri, A., Arabloo, J., Azari, S., Ghashghaee, A., Rezapour, A., Naserbakht, M., Kabir, A., Mehri, F., Yousefifard, M., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Babaee, E., Eshrati, B., Goharinezhad, S., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Abedi, P., Rashedi, V., Kumar, V., Elgendy, I.Y., Basu, S., Park, J., Pereira, A., Norheim, O.F., Eagan, A.W., Cahill, L.E., Sheikh, A., Abushouk, A.I., Kraemer, M.U.G., Thakur, B., Bärnighausen, T.W., Shrime, M.G., Abedi, A., Doshi, C.P., Abegaz, K.H., Geberemariyam, B.S., Aynalem, Y.A., Shiferaw, W.S., Abosetugn, A.E., Aboyans, V., Abrams, E.M., Gitimoghaddam, M., Kissoon, N., Stubbs, J.L., Brauer, M., Iyamu, I.O., Kopec, J.A., Pourmalek, F., Ribeiro, A.P., Malta, D.C., Gomez, R.S., Abreu, L.G., Abrigo, M.R.M., Almulhim, A.M., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Pottoo, F.H., Menezes, R.G., Alanzi, T.M., Alumran, A.K., Abu Haimed, A.K., Madadin, M., Alanezi, F.M., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Saddik, B., Abu-Raddad, L.J., Samy, A.M., El Nahas, N., Shalash, A.S., Nabhan, A.F., Kamath, A.M., Kassebaum, N.J., Aravkin, A.Y., Kochhar, S., Sorensen, R.J.D., Afshin, A., Burkart, K., Cromwell, E.A., Dandona, L., Dharmaratne, S.D., Gakidou, E., Hay, S.I., Kyu, H.H., Lopez, A.D., Lozano, R., Misganaw, A.T., Mokdad, A.H., Naghavi, M., Pigott, D.M., Reiner Jr, R.C., Roth, G.A., Stanaway, J.D., Vollset, S., Vos, T., Wang, H., Lim, S.S., Murray, C.J.L., Kalani, R., Ikuta, K.S., Cho, D.Y., Kneib, C.J., Crowe, C.S., Massenburg, B.B., Morrison, S.D., Acebedo, A., Adelson, J.D., Agesa, K.M., Alam, T., Albertson, S.B., Anderson, J.A., Antony, C.M., Ashbaugh, C., Assmus, M., Azhar, G., Balassyano, S., Bannick, M.S., Barthelemy, C.M., Bender, R.G., Bennitt, F.B., Bertolacci, G.J., Biehl, M.H., Bisignano, C., Boon-Dooley, A.S., Briant, P.S., Bryazka, D., Bumgarner, B.R., Callender, C.S., Cao, J., Castle, C.D., Castro, E., Causey, K., Cercy, K.M., Chalek, J., Charlson, F.J., Cohen, A.J., Comfort, H., Compton, K., Croneberger, A.J., Cruz, J.A., Cunningham, M., Dandona, R., Dangel, W.J., Dean, F.E., DeCleene, N.K., Deen, A., Degenhardt, L., Dingels, Z.V., Dippenaar, I.N., Dirac, M.A., Dolgert, A.J., Emmons-Bell, S., Estep, K., Farag, T., Feigin, V.L., Feldman, R., Ferrara, G., Ferrari, A.J., Fitzgerald, R., Force, L.M., Fox, J.T., Frank, T.D., Fu, W., Fukutaki, K., Fuller, J.E., Fullman, N., Galles, N.C., Gardner, W.M., Gershberg Hayoon, A., Goren, E., Gorman, T.M., Gottlich, H.C., Guo, G., Haddock, B., Hagins, H., Haile, L.M., Hamilton, E.B., Han, C., Han, H., Harvey, J.D., Henny, K., Henrikson, H.J., Henry, N.J., Herbert, M.E., Hsiao, T., Huynh, C.K., Iannucci, V.C., Ippolito, H., Irvine, C.M.S., Jafari, H., Jahagirdar, D., James, S.L., Johnson, C.O., Johnson, S.C., Keller, C., Kemmer, L., Kendrick, P.J., Knight, M., Kocarnik, J.M., Krohn, K.J., Larson, S.L., Lau, K.M., Ledesma, J.R., Leever, A.T., LeGrand, K.E., Lescinsky, H., Lin, C., Liu, H., Liu, Z., Lo, J., Lu, A., Ma, J., Maddison, E.R., Manguerra, H., Marks, A., Martopullo, I., Mastrogiacomo, C.I., May, E.A., Mooney, M.D., Mosser, J.F., Mullany, E.C., Mumford, J., Munro, S.B., Nandakumar, V., Nguyen, J., Nguyen, M., Nichols, E., Nixon, M.R., Odell, C.M., Ong, K.L., Orji, A.U., Ostroff, S.M., Pasovic, M., Paulson, K.R., Pease, S.A., Pennini, A., Pierce, M., Pilz, T.M., Pletcher, M., Rao, P.C., Razo, C., Redford, S.B., Reinig, N., Reitsma, M.B., Rhinehart, P., Robalik, T., Roberts, S., Roberts, N.L.S., Rolfe, S., Sbarra, A.N., Schaeffer, L.E., Shackelford, K.A., Shadid, J., Sharara, F., Shaw, D.H., Sheena, B.S., Simpson, K.E., Smith, A., Spencer, C.N., Spurlock, E.E., Stark, B.A., Steiner, C., Steuben, K.M., Sylte, D.O., Tang, M., Taylor, H.J., Terrason, S., Thomson, A.M., Torre, A.E., Travillian, R., Troeger, C.E., Vongpradith, A., Walters, M.K., Wang, J., Watson, A., Watson, S., Whisnant, J.L., Whiteford, H.A., Wiens, K.E., Wilner, L.B., Wilson, S., Wool, E.E., Wozniak, S.S., Wu, J., Wulf Hanson, S., Wunrow, H., Xu, R., Yadgir, S., Yearwood, J.A., York, H.W., Yuan, C., Zhao, J.T., Zheng, P., Zimsen, S.R.M., Zlavog, B.S., Chang, A.Y., Oren, E., Buchbinder, R., Chin, K.L., Guo, Y., Polkinghorne, K.R., Thrift, A.G., Lee, S.W.H., Ackerman, I.N., Cicuttini, F.M., Li, S., Zaman, S., Suleria, H., Zhang, J., Cowie, B.C., Wijeratne, T., Patton, G.C., Sawyer, S.M., Adair, T., Meretoja, A., Adetokunboh, O.O., Adamu, A.A., Iwu, C.J., Parry, C.D.H., Seedat, S., Ndwandwe, D.E., Mahasha, P.W., Stein, D.J., Nnaji, C.A., Sambala, E.Z., Wiysonge, C.S., Adebayo, O.M., Ilesanmi, O.S., Owolabi, M.O., Adeoye, A.M., Adedeji, I.A., Adekanmbi, V., Ibitoye, S.E., John-Akinola, Y.O., Oluwasanu, M.M., Oghenetega, O.B., Akinyemi, R.O., Zandian, H., Adham, D., Zahirian Moghadam, T., Advani, S.M., Teagle, W.L., Braithwaite, D., Agasthi, P., Saadatagah, S., Afshari, M., Agardh, E.E., Allebeck, P., Danielsson, A., Deuba, K., Carrero, J.J., Mohammad, D.K., Fereshtehnejad, S., Ärnlöv, J., Nowak, C., Cederroth, C.R., Ahmadi, A., Pathak, A., Mills, E.J., Kurmi, O.P., Olagunju, A.T., Agarwal, G., Sathish, T., Aghaali, M., Mohammadbeigi, A., Agrawal, A., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Maleki, S., Naderi, M., Salahshoor, M.R., Pourmirza Kalhori, R., Almasi, A., Salimi, Y., Siabani, S., Ziapour, A., Barzegar, A., Khazaie, H., Kianipour, N., Amiri, F., 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Fariborz, Mansouri, Borhan, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Martini, Santi, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Masaka, Anthony, Mastrogiacomo, Claudia I, Mathur, Manu Raj, May, Erin A, Mcalinden, Colm, Mcgrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mehri, Fereshteh, Mehta, Kala M, Meitei, Wahengbam Bigyananda, Memiah, Peter T N, Mendoza, Walter, Menezes, Ritesh G, Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Mestrovic, Tomislav, Michalek, Irmina Maria, Mihretie, Kebadnew Mulatu, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Milne, George J, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M, Mirzaei, Hamed, Mirzaei, Maryam, Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi, Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Moazen, Babak, Moghadaszadeh, Masoud, Mohamadi, Efat, Mohammad, Dara K, Mohammad, Yousef, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser, Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah, Mohammadpourhodki, Reza, Mohammed, Hussen, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Mohseni Bandpei, Mohammad A, Mokari, Amin, Mokdad, Ali H, Momen, Natalie C, Monasta, Lorenzo, Mooney, Meghan D, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi, Masoud, Moradi-Joo, Mohammad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah, Moraga, Paula, Moreno Velásquez, Ilai, Morgado-da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Dougla, Mosser, Jonathan F, Mouodi, Simin, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mousavi Khaneghah, Amin, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Muthupandian, Saravanan, Nabavizadeh, Behnam, Naderi, Mehdi, Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naghshtabrizi, Behshad, Naik, Gurudatta, Najafi, Farid, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Ngunjiri, Josephine W, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Nigatu, Yeshambel T, Nikbakhsh, Rajan, Nikpoor, Amin Reza, Nixon, Molly R, Nnaji, Chukwudi A, Nomura, Shuhei, Noubiap, Jean Jacque, Nouraei Motlagh, Soraya, Nowak, Christoph, Oţoiu, Adrian, Odell, Christopher M, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladnabi, Morteza, Olagunju, Andrew T, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Omar Bali, Ahmed, Ong, Kanyin L, Onwujekwe, Obinna E, Ortiz, Alberto, Otstavnov, Nikita, Otstavnov, Stanislav S, Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa O, P A, Mahesh, Padubidri, Jagadish Rao, Pakshir, Keyvan, Palladino, Raffaele, Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Park, Jame, Pasupula, Deepak Kumar, Patel, Jenil R, Patel, Sangram Kishor, Patton, George C, Paulson, Katherine R, Pazoki Toroudi, Hamidreza, Pease, Spencer A, Peden, Amy E, Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino, Peprah, Emmanuel K, Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pigott, David M, Pilgrim, Thoma, Pilz, Tessa M, Piradov, Michael A, Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pokhrel, Khem Narayan, Postma, Maarten J, Pourjafar, Hadi, Pourmalek, Farshad, Pourshams, Akram, Poznańska, Anna, Prada, Sergio I, Prakash, Sanjay, Preotescu, Liliana, Quazi Syed, Zahiruddin, Rabiee, Mohammad, Rabiee, Navid, Radfar, Amir, Rafiei, Alireza, Raggi, Alberto, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali, Ram, Pradhum, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Rao, Sowmya J, Rasella, Davide, Rashedi, Vahid, Rastogi, Prateek, Rathi, Priya, Rawal, Lal, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renjith, Vishnu, Renzaho, Andre M N, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Nima, Rezai, Mohammad sadegh, Rezapour, Aziz, Rickard, Jennifer, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostamian, Morteza, Rubagotti, Enrico, Rwegerera, Godfrey M, Sabour, Siamak, Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Sadeghi, Masoumeh, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Yahya, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, S Mohammad, Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza, Salama, Joseph S, Salamati, Payman, Salem, Marwa R Rashad, Salimi, Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Salz, Inbal, Samad, Zainab, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Santric-Milicevic, Milena M, Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer, Sartorius, Benn, Sarveazad, Arash, Sathian, Brijesh, Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu, Sattin, Davide, Saylan, Mete, Schaeffer, Lauren E, Schiavolin, Silvia, Schwebel, David C, Schwendicke, Falk, Sekerija, Mario, Senbeta, Anbissa Muleta, Senthilkumaran, Subramanian, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serván-Mori, Edson, Shabani, Mahsima, Shahabi, Saeed, Shahbaz, Mohammad, Shaheen, Amira A, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shalash, Ali S, Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran, Shamsi, Mohammadbagher, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Shannawaz, Mohammed, Sharafi, Kiomar, Sharafi, Zeinab, Sharara, Fablina, Sharma, Rajesh, Shaw, David H, Sheikh, Aziz, Shin, Jae Il, Shiri, Rahman, Shrime, Mark G, Shuval, Kerem, Siabani, Soraya, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig, Silva, Diego Augusto Santo, Simonetti, Biagio, Simpson, Kyle E, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich, Soheili, Amin, Sokhan, Anton, Sorensen, Reed J D, Soriano, Joan B, Sorrie, Muluken Bekele, Soyiri, Ireneous N, Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stockfelt, Leo, Stokes, Mark A, Stubbs, Jacob L, Sudaryanto, Agu, Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tabb, Karen M, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Taherkhani, Amir, Tang, Muming, Taveira, Nuno, Taylor, Heather Jean, Teagle, Whitney L, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Teklehaimanot, Berhane Fseha, Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thomas, Nihal, Thrift, Amanda G, Titova, Mariya Vladimirovna, Tohidinik, Hamid Reza, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Topouzis, Foti, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto Roberto, Traini, Eugenio, Tran, Bach Xuan, Travillian, Ravensara, Trias-Llimós, Sergi, Truelsen, Thomas Clement, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran, Upadhyay, Era, Vacante, Marco, Vakilian, Alireza, Valdez, Pascual R, Valli, Alessandro, Vardavas, Constantine, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogale, Vasseghian, Yasser, Veisani, Yousef, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vidale, Simone, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Vujcic, Isidora S, Vukovic, Ana, Vukovic, Rade, Waheed, Yasir, Wallin, Mitchell Taylor, Walters, Magdalene K, Wang, Hongbo, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Watson, Stefanie, Wei, Jingkai, Weiss, Jordan, Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wiangkham, Taweewat, Wiens, Kirsten E, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wojtyniak, Bogdan, Wolfe, Charles D A, Wondmieneh, Adam Belay, Wool, Eve E, Wu, Ai-Min, Wu, Junjie, Xu, Gelin, Yamada, Tomohide, Yamagishi, Kazumasa, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaya, Sanni, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid, Yearwood, Jamal A, Yeheyis, Tomas Y, Yilgwan, Christopher Sabo, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yoosefi Lebni, Javad, York, Hunter W, Younis, Mustafa Z, Younker, Theodore Patrick, Yousefi, Zabihollah, Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh, Yousuf, Abdilahi Yousuf, Yusefzadeh, Hasan, Zahirian Moghadam, Telma, Zakzuk, Josefina, Zaman, Sojib Bin, Zamani, Mohammad, Zamanian, Maryam, Zandian, Hamed, Zhang, Zhi-Jiang, Zheng, Peng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ziapour, Arash, Murray, Christopher J L, Collaborators, GBD 2019 Demographics, GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborator, Violante FS, Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Department of Earth Systems Analysis, Biomechanical Engineering, TechMed Centre, Biomolecular Nanotechnology, Research Methodology, Measurement and Data Analysis, Materials Science and Technology of Polymers, Inorganic Materials Science, MESA+ Institute, Biomedical and Environmental Sensorsystems, Mesoscale Chemical Systems, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Nonlinear Solid Mechanics, Digital Society Institute, Pervasive Systems, Nanobiophysics, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, Multi Scale Mechanics, Engineering Fluid Dynamics, Physics of Complex Fluids, Developmental BioEngineering, Physics of Fluids, Elastomer Technology and Engineering, Medical Cell Biophysics, European Membrane Institute, Department of Earth Observation Science, Biomaterials Science and Technology, Sustainable Process Technology, Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management, Department of Natural Resources, XUV Optics, Databases (Former), Department of Water Resources, Psychology, Health & Technology, Membrane Science & Technology, Department of Public Health, Clinicum, HUS Neurocenter, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Male, very elderly, Demographic transition, HALE, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, preschool child, Global Burden of Disease, Carga Global de Enfermedades, 0302 clinical medicine, newborn, Risk Factors, Surveys and Questionnaires, and Risk Factors Study, 80 and over, 030212 general & internal medicine, Birth Rate, Child, Migration, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Injuries, Geography, Mortality rate, 1. No poverty, DEATH, Censuses, General Medicine, SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities, Middle Aged, Demographic analysis, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 3. Good health, demographic analysis, Estilo de Vida Saludable, risk factor, Child, Preschool, Demography/statistics & numerical data, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, Risk Factors, Fertility, Mortality, Migration, Population, epidemiology, Female, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, CHILD-MORTALITY, Live Birth, Global Health Metrics, TRANSITION, demographics, GBD, fertility, mortality, hale, Adult, Adolescent, Total fertility rate, Population, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, Birth rate, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, General & Internal Medicine, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Demografía, Humans, Global Burden of Disease Study, human, Mortality, education, Preschool, Aged, Demography, Spatial Analysis, questionnaire, Infant, Newborn, Klinisk medicin, HIV, Infant, Global Burden of Diseases, sex-specific fertility, Live Birth/epidemiology, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.00 [https], MODEL, Fertilidad, Fertility, Demographic change, Life expectancy, NA, global disease burden, Clinical Medicine, population research
Abstract

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2020
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11. Implementation of the polycystic ovary syndrome guidelines: A mixed method study to inform the design and delivery of a lifestyle management program for women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

Author

Pirotta S., Joham A.E., Moran L.J., Skouteris H., Lim S.S., Pirotta S., Joham A.E., Moran L.J., Skouteris H., and Lim S.S.

Abstract

AIM: The 2018 evidence-based polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) guidelines recommend lifestyle management as first-line treatment. This study aims to understand the preferred intervention characteristics of a PCOS lifestyle program from the perspectives of women with PCOS to inform the translation of the guidelines into practice. METHOD(S): Women with self-reported PCOS residing in Australia took part in semi-structured interviews (n = 20) and an online survey (n = 286). The survey and interview schedule were developed using the template for intervention description and replication checklist. RESULT(S): Women want to take part in a lifestyle program (94.6%) and use government-subsidised sessions to attend (83%). Sessions of 45 to 60minutes (75%) costing less than AUD$50 are preferred (60%). Topics of most interest related to sustainable daily physical activity (58%), overcoming non-hungry eating (54%), PCOS-specific diets (51%) and how to overcome barriers to behaviour change (45%). A delivery mode that combines online and in-person support is preferred (53%). Women are in need of long-term professional lifestyle support (6-12months) that provides evidence-based, PCOS-specific, personalised prescription. Multidisciplinary support from a range of PCOS-trained professions is also preferred to address women's physical, psychological and emotional needs. CONCLUSION(S): Women with PCOS are willing to take part in lifestyle programs that are low cost, long term, evidence based, PCOS-specific and provide practical strategies for nutrition and physical activity changes. Future online and in-person PCOS programs are strongly recommended to incorporate these findings to improve program engagement and patient satisfaction.Copyright © 2021 Dietitians Australia.

Published
2022

12. Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Haakenstad, A., Irvine, C.M.S., Knight, M., Bintz, C., Aravkin, A.Y., Zheng, P., Gupta, V., Abrigo, M.R.M., Abushouk, A.I., Adebayo, O.M., Agarwal, G., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alanzi, T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal, J.E., Alipour, V., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amit, A.M.L., Andrei, C.L., Andrei, T., Antonio, C.A.T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Ayanore, M.A., Banach, M., Bärnighausen, T.W., Barthelemy, C.M., Bayati, M., Benzian, H., Berman, A.E., Bienhoff, K., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Biondi, A., Boloor, A., Busse, R., Butt, Z.A., Cámera, L.A., Campos-Nonato, I.R., Cárdenas, R., Carvalho, F., Chansa, C., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chu, D-T, Dai, X., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Dangel, W.J., Daryani, A., De Neve, J-W, Dhimal, M., Dipeolu, I.O., Djalalinia, S., Do, H.T., Doshi, C.P., Doshmangir, L., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Tantawi, M., Fernandes, E., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Fomenkov, A.A., Foroutan, M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gad, M.M., Ghadiri, K., Ghafourifard, M., Ghashghaee, A., Glucksman, T., Goudarzi, H., Gupta, R.D., Hamadeh, R.R., Hamidi, S., Haro, J.M., Hasanpoor, E., Hay, S.I., Hegazy, M.I., Heibati, B., Henry, N.J., Hole, M.K., Hossain, N., Househ, M., Ilesanmi, O.S., Imani-Nasab, M-H, Irvani, S.S.N., Islam, S.M.S., Jahani, M.A., Joshi, A., Kalhor, R., Kayode, G.A., Khalid, N., Khatab, K., Kisa, A., Kochhar, S., Krishan, K., Kuate Defo, B., Lal, D.K., Lami, F.H., Larsson, A.O., Leasher, J.L., LeGrand, K.E., Lim, L-L, Mahotra, N.B., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Manjunatha, N., Massenburg, B.B., Mestrovic, T., Mini, G.K., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mohammad, Y., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A.H., Morrison, S.D., Naghavi, M., Ndwandwe, D.E., Negoi, I., Negoi, R.I., Ngunjiri, J.W., Nguyen, C.T., Nigatu, Y.T., Onwujekwe, O.E., Ortega-Altamirano, D.V., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Owolabi, M.O., Pakhare, A.P., Pepito, V.C.F., Perico, N., Pham, H.Q., Pigott, D.M., Pokhrel, K.N., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rawal, L., Remuzzi, G., Renzaho, A.M.N., Resnikoff, S., Rezaei, N., Rezapour, A., Rickard, J., Roever, L., Sahu, M., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Santric-Milicevic, M.M., Saraswathy, S.Y.I., Seedat, S., Senthilkumaran, S., Serván-Mori, E., Shaikh, M.A., Sheikh, A., Silva, D.A.S., Stein, C., Stein, D.J., Titova, M.V., Topp, S.M., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Ullah, S., Unnikrishnan, B., Vacante, M., Valdez, P.R., Vasankari, T.J., Venketasubramanian, N., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Yearwood, J.A., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M.Z., Yu, C., Zadey, S., Zaman, S.B., Zerfu, T.A., Zhang, Z-J, Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Lim, S.S., Murray, C.J.L., Lozano, R., Haakenstad, A., Irvine, C.M.S., Knight, M., Bintz, C., Aravkin, A.Y., Zheng, P., Gupta, V., Abrigo, M.R.M., Abushouk, A.I., Adebayo, O.M., Agarwal, G., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alanzi, T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal, J.E., Alipour, V., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amit, A.M.L., Andrei, C.L., Andrei, T., Antonio, C.A.T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Ayanore, M.A., Banach, M., Bärnighausen, T.W., Barthelemy, C.M., Bayati, M., Benzian, H., Berman, A.E., Bienhoff, K., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Biondi, A., Boloor, A., Busse, R., Butt, Z.A., Cámera, L.A., Campos-Nonato, I.R., Cárdenas, R., Carvalho, F., Chansa, C., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chu, D-T, Dai, X., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Dangel, W.J., Daryani, A., De Neve, J-W, Dhimal, M., Dipeolu, I.O., Djalalinia, S., Do, H.T., Doshi, C.P., Doshmangir, L., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Tantawi, M., Fernandes, E., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Fomenkov, A.A., Foroutan, M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gad, M.M., Ghadiri, K., Ghafourifard, M., Ghashghaee, A., Glucksman, T., Goudarzi, H., Gupta, R.D., Hamadeh, R.R., Hamidi, S., Haro, J.M., Hasanpoor, E., Hay, S.I., Hegazy, M.I., Heibati, B., Henry, N.J., Hole, M.K., Hossain, N., Househ, M., Ilesanmi, O.S., Imani-Nasab, M-H, Irvani, S.S.N., Islam, S.M.S., Jahani, M.A., Joshi, A., Kalhor, R., Kayode, G.A., Khalid, N., Khatab, K., Kisa, A., Kochhar, S., Krishan, K., Kuate Defo, B., Lal, D.K., Lami, F.H., Larsson, A.O., Leasher, J.L., LeGrand, K.E., Lim, L-L, Mahotra, N.B., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Manjunatha, N., Massenburg, B.B., Mestrovic, T., Mini, G.K., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mohammad, Y., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A.H., Morrison, S.D., Naghavi, M., Ndwandwe, D.E., Negoi, I., Negoi, R.I., Ngunjiri, J.W., Nguyen, C.T., Nigatu, Y.T., Onwujekwe, O.E., Ortega-Altamirano, D.V., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Owolabi, M.O., Pakhare, A.P., Pepito, V.C.F., Perico, N., Pham, H.Q., Pigott, D.M., Pokhrel, K.N., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rawal, L., Remuzzi, G., Renzaho, A.M.N., Resnikoff, S., Rezaei, N., Rezapour, A., Rickard, J., Roever, L., Sahu, M., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Santric-Milicevic, M.M., Saraswathy, S.Y.I., Seedat, S., Senthilkumaran, S., Serván-Mori, E., Shaikh, M.A., Sheikh, A., Silva, D.A.S., Stein, C., Stein, D.J., Titova, M.V., Topp, S.M., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Ullah, S., Unnikrishnan, B., Vacante, M., Valdez, P.R., Vasankari, T.J., Venketasubramanian, N., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Yearwood, J.A., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M.Z., Yu, C., Zadey, S., Zaman, S.B., Zerfu, T.A., Zhang, Z-J, Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Lim, S.S., Murray, C.J.L., and Lozano, R.

Abstract

Background Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 strategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance. Methods Through the International Labour Organization and Global Health Data Exchange databases, we identified 1404 country-years of data from labour force surveys and 69 country-years of census data, with detailed microdata on health-related employment. From the WHO National Health Workforce Accounts, we identified 2950 country-years of data. We mapped data from all occupational coding systems to the International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988 (ISCO-88), allowing for standardised estimation of densities for 16 categories of health workers across the full time series. Using data from 1990 to 2019 for 196 of 204 countries and territories, covering seven Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) super-regions and 21 regions, we applied spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) to model HRH densities from 1990 to 2019 for all countries and territories. We used stochastic frontier meta-regression to model the relationship between the UHC effective coverage index and densities for the four categories of health workers enumerated in SDG indicator 3.c.1 pertaining to HRH: physicians, nurses and midwives, dentistry personnel, and pharmaceutical personnel. We identified minimum workfor

Published
2022

18. Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: A review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050

Author

Micah, A.E., Cogswell, I.E., Cunningham, B., Ezoe, S., Harle, A.C., Maddison, E.R., McCracken, D., Nomura, S., Simpson, K.E., Stutzman, H.N., Tsakalos, G., Wallace, L.E., Zhao, Y., Zende, R.R., Abbafati, C., Abdelmasseh, M., Abedi, A., Abegaz, K.H., Abhilash, E.S., Abolhassani, H., Abrigo, M.R.M., Adhikari, T.B., Afzal, S., Ahinkorah, B.O., Ahmadi, S., Ahmed, H., Ahmed, M.B., Ahmed Rashid, T., Ajami, M., Aji, B., Akalu, Y., Akunna, C.J., Al Hamad, H., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Alemayehu, Y., Alhassan, R.K., Alinia, C., Aljunid, S.M., Almustanyir, S.A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Alvis-Zakzuk, N.J., Amini, S., Amini-Rarani, M., Amu, H., Ancuceanu, R., Andrei, C.L., Andrei, T., Angell, B., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C.A.T., Antony, C.M., Aqeel, M., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aripov, T., Arrigo, A., Ashraf, T., Atnafu, D.D., Ausloos, M., Avila-Burgos, L., Awan, A.T., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M.A., Azari, S., Azhar, G.S., Babalola, T.K., Bahrami, M.A., Baig, A.A., Banach, M., Barati, N., Bärnighausen, T.W., Barrow, A., Basu, S., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Benzian, H., Berman, A.E., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhardwaj, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhaskar, S., Bibi, S., Bijani, A., Bodolica, V., Bragazzi, N.L., Braithwaite, D., Breitborde, N.J.K., Breusov, A.V., Briko, N.I., Busse, R., Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Callander, E.J., Cámera, L.A., Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A., Catalá-López, F., Charan, J., Chatterjee, S., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chen, S., Cicero, A.F.G., Dadras, O., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Dai, X., Dalal, K., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Davitoiu, D.V., De Neve, J-W, de Sá-Junior, A.R., Denova-Gutiérrez, E., Dhamnetiya, D., Dharmaratne, S.D., Doshmangir, L., Dube, J., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., Eskandarieh, S., Farzadfar, F., Ferede, T.Y., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Freitas, A., Friedman, S.D., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gaal, P.A., Gad, M.M., Garcia-Gordillo, M.A., Garg, T., Ghafourifard, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gholamian, A., Gholamrezanezhad, A., Ghozali, G., Gilani, S.A., Glăvan, I-R, Glushkova, E.V., Goharinezhad, S., Golechha, M., Goli, S., Guha, A., Gupta, V.B., Gupta, V.K., Haakenstad, A., Haider, M.R., Hailu, A., Hamidi, S., Hanif, A., Harapan, H., Hartono, R.K., Hasaballah, A.I., Hassan, S., Hassanein, M.H., Hayat, K., Hegazy, M.I., Heidari, G., Hendrie, D., Heredia-Pi, I., Herteliu, C., Hezam, K., Holla, R., Hossain, S.., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, S., Huda, T.M., Hwang, B-F, Iavicoli, I., Idrisov, B., Ilesanmi, O.S., Irvani, S.S.N., Islam, S.M.S., Ismail, N.E., Isola, G., Jahani, M.A., Jahanmehr, N., Jakovljevic, M., Janodia, M.D., Javaheri, T., Jayapal, S.K., Jayawardena, R., Jazayeri, S.B., Jha, R.P., Jonas, J.B., Joo, T., Joukar, F., Jürisson, M., Kaambwa, B., Kalhor, R., Kanchan, T., Kandel, H., Karami Matin, B., Karimi, S.E., Kassahun, G., Kayode, G.A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Keikavoosi-Arani, L., Khader, Y.S., Khajuria, H., Khalilov, R., Khammarnia, M., Khan, J., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, G.R., Kim, Y.J., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kohler, S., Kosen, S., Koteeswaran, R., Koulmane Laxminarayana, S.L., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Kumar, G.A., Kusuma, D., Lamnisos, D., Lansingh, V.C., Larsson, A.O., Lasrado, S., Le, L.K.D., Lee, S.W.H., Lee, Y.Y., Lim, S.S., Lobo, S.W., Lozano, R., Magdy Abd El Razek, H., Magdy Abd El Razek, M., Mahdavi, M.M., Majeed, A., Makki, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Manda, A.L., Mansour-Ghanaei, F., Mansournia, M.A., Marrugo Arnedo, C.A., Martinez-Valle, A., Masoumi, S.Z., Maude, Ri.J., McKee, M., Medina-Solís, C.E., Menezes, R.G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T.J., Mesregah, M.K., Mestrovic, T., Milevska Kostova, N., Miller, T.R., Mini, G.K., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mohajer, B., Mohamed, T.A., Mohammadi, M., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, S., Moitra, M., Mokdad, A.H., Molokhia, M., Moni, M.A., Moradi, Y., Morze, J., Mousavi, S.M., Mpundu-Kaambwa, C., Muriithi, M.K, Muthupandian, S., Nagarajan, A.J., Naimzada, M.D., Nangia, V., Naqvi, A.A., Narayana, A.I., Nascimento, B.R., Naveed, M., Nayak, B.P., Nazari, J., Ndejjo, R., Negoi, I., Neupane Kandel, S., Nguyen, T.H., Nonvignon, J., Noubiap, J.J., Nwatah, V.E., Oancea, B., Ojelabi, F.A.O., Olagunju, A.T., Olakunde, B.O., Olgiati, S., Olusanya, J.O., Onwujekwe, O.E., Otoiu, A., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Owolabi, M.O., Padubidri, J.R., Palladino, R., Panda-Jonas, S., Park, E-C, Pashazadeh Kan, F., Pawar, S., Pazoki Toroudi, H., Pereira, D.M., Perianayagam, A., Pesudovs, K., Piccinelli, C., Postma, M.J., Prada, S.I., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahman, M.H.U., Rahman, M., Rahmani, A.M., Ram, U., Ranabhat, C.L., Ranasinghe, P., Rao, C.R., Rathi, P., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Reiner Jr, R.C., Renzaho, A.M.N., Reshmi, B., Riaz, M.A., Ripon, R.K., Saad, A.M., Sahraian, M.A., Sahu, M., Salama, J.S., Salehi, S., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Sanmarchi, F., Santos, J.V., Santric-Milicevic, M.M., Sathian, B., Savic, M., Saxena, D., Sayyah, M., Schwendicke, F., Senthilkumaran, S., Sepanlou, S.G., Seylani, A., Shahabi, S., Shaikh, M.A., Sheikh, A., Shetty, A., Shetty, P.H., Shibuya, K., Shrime, M.G., Shuja, K.H., Singh, J.A., Skryabin, V.Y., Skryabina, A.A., Soltani, S., Soofi, M., Spurlock, E.E., Stefan, S.C., Szerencsés, V., Szócska, M., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Taddele, B.W., Tefera, Y.G., Thavamani, A., Tobe-Gai, R., Topor-Madry, R., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Tran, B.X., Tudor Car, L., Ullah, A., Ullah, S., Umar, N., Undurraga, E.A., Valdez, P.R., Vasankari, T.J., Villafañe, J.H., Violante, F.S., Vlassov, V., Vo, B., Vollmer, S., Vos, T., Vu, G.T., Vu, L.G., Wamai, R.G., Werdecker, A., Woldekidan, M.A., Wubishet, B.L., Xu, G., Yaya, S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yiğit, V., Yip, P., Yirdaw, B.W., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M.Z., Yu, C., Yunusa, I., Zahirian Moghadam, T., Zandian, H., Zastrozhin, M.S., Zastrozhina, A., Zhang, Z-J, Ziapour, A., Zuniga, Y.M.H., Hay, S.I., Murray, C. J.L., Dieleman, J.L., Micah, A.E., Cogswell, I.E., Cunningham, B., Ezoe, S., Harle, A.C., Maddison, E.R., McCracken, D., Nomura, S., Simpson, K.E., Stutzman, H.N., Tsakalos, G., Wallace, L.E., Zhao, Y., Zende, R.R., Abbafati, C., Abdelmasseh, M., Abedi, A., Abegaz, K.H., Abhilash, E.S., Abolhassani, H., Abrigo, M.R.M., Adhikari, T.B., Afzal, S., Ahinkorah, B.O., Ahmadi, S., Ahmed, H., Ahmed, M.B., Ahmed Rashid, T., Ajami, M., Aji, B., Akalu, Y., Akunna, C.J., Al Hamad, H., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Alemayehu, Y., Alhassan, R.K., Alinia, C., Aljunid, S.M., Almustanyir, S.A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Alvis-Zakzuk, N.J., Amini, S., Amini-Rarani, M., Amu, H., Ancuceanu, R., Andrei, C.L., Andrei, T., Angell, B., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C.A.T., Antony, C.M., Aqeel, M., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aripov, T., Arrigo, A., Ashraf, T., Atnafu, D.D., Ausloos, M., Avila-Burgos, L., Awan, A.T., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M.A., Azari, S., Azhar, G.S., Babalola, T.K., Bahrami, M.A., Baig, A.A., Banach, M., Barati, N., Bärnighausen, T.W., Barrow, A., Basu, S., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Benzian, H., Berman, A.E., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhardwaj, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhaskar, S., Bibi, S., Bijani, A., Bodolica, V., Bragazzi, N.L., Braithwaite, D., Breitborde, N.J.K., Breusov, A.V., Briko, N.I., Busse, R., Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Callander, E.J., Cámera, L.A., Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A., Catalá-López, F., Charan, J., Chatterjee, S., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chen, S., Cicero, A.F.G., Dadras, O., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Dai, X., Dalal, K., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Davitoiu, D.V., De Neve, J-W, de Sá-Junior, A.R., Denova-Gutiérrez, E., Dhamnetiya, D., Dharmaratne, S.D., Doshmangir, L., Dube, J., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., Eskandarieh, S., Farzadfar, F., Ferede, T.Y., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Freitas, A., Friedman, S.D., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gaal, P.A., Gad, M.M., Garcia-Gordillo, M.A., Garg, T., Ghafourifard, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gholamian, A., Gholamrezanezhad, A., Ghozali, G., Gilani, S.A., Glăvan, I-R, Glushkova, E.V., Goharinezhad, S., Golechha, M., Goli, S., Guha, A., Gupta, V.B., Gupta, V.K., Haakenstad, A., Haider, M.R., Hailu, A., Hamidi, S., Hanif, A., Harapan, H., Hartono, R.K., Hasaballah, A.I., Hassan, S., Hassanein, M.H., Hayat, K., Hegazy, M.I., Heidari, G., Hendrie, D., Heredia-Pi, I., Herteliu, C., Hezam, K., Holla, R., Hossain, S.., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, S., Huda, T.M., Hwang, B-F, Iavicoli, I., Idrisov, B., Ilesanmi, O.S., Irvani, S.S.N., Islam, S.M.S., Ismail, N.E., Isola, G., Jahani, M.A., Jahanmehr, N., Jakovljevic, M., Janodia, M.D., Javaheri, T., Jayapal, S.K., Jayawardena, R., Jazayeri, S.B., Jha, R.P., Jonas, J.B., Joo, T., Joukar, F., Jürisson, M., Kaambwa, B., Kalhor, R., Kanchan, T., Kandel, H., Karami Matin, B., Karimi, S.E., Kassahun, G., Kayode, G.A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Keikavoosi-Arani, L., Khader, Y.S., Khajuria, H., Khalilov, R., Khammarnia, M., Khan, J., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, G.R., Kim, Y.J., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kohler, S., Kosen, S., Koteeswaran, R., Koulmane Laxminarayana, S.L., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Kumar, G.A., Kusuma, D., Lamnisos, D., Lansingh, V.C., Larsson, A.O., Lasrado, S., Le, L.K.D., Lee, S.W.H., Lee, Y.Y., Lim, S.S., Lobo, S.W., Lozano, R., Magdy Abd El Razek, H., Magdy Abd El Razek, M., Mahdavi, M.M., Majeed, A., Makki, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Manda, A.L., Mansour-Ghanaei, F., Mansournia, M.A., Marrugo Arnedo, C.A., Martinez-Valle, A., Masoumi, S.Z., Maude, Ri.J., McKee, M., Medina-Solís, C.E., Menezes, R.G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T.J., Mesregah, M.K., Mestrovic, T., Milevska Kostova, N., Miller, T.R., Mini, G.K., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mohajer, B., Mohamed, T.A., Mohammadi, M., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, S., Moitra, M., Mokdad, A.H., Molokhia, M., Moni, M.A., Moradi, Y., Morze, J., Mousavi, S.M., Mpundu-Kaambwa, C., Muriithi, M.K, Muthupandian, S., Nagarajan, A.J., Naimzada, M.D., Nangia, V., Naqvi, A.A., Narayana, A.I., Nascimento, B.R., Naveed, M., Nayak, B.P., Nazari, J., Ndejjo, R., Negoi, I., Neupane Kandel, S., Nguyen, T.H., Nonvignon, J., Noubiap, J.J., Nwatah, V.E., Oancea, B., Ojelabi, F.A.O., Olagunju, A.T., Olakunde, B.O., Olgiati, S., Olusanya, J.O., Onwujekwe, O.E., Otoiu, A., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Owolabi, M.O., Padubidri, J.R., Palladino, R., Panda-Jonas, S., Park, E-C, Pashazadeh Kan, F., Pawar, S., Pazoki Toroudi, H., Pereira, D.M., Perianayagam, A., Pesudovs, K., Piccinelli, C., Postma, M.J., Prada, S.I., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahman, M.H.U., Rahman, M., Rahmani, A.M., Ram, U., Ranabhat, C.L., Ranasinghe, P., Rao, C.R., Rathi, P., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Reiner Jr, R.C., Renzaho, A.M.N., Reshmi, B., Riaz, M.A., Ripon, R.K., Saad, A.M., Sahraian, M.A., Sahu, M., Salama, J.S., Salehi, S., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Sanmarchi, F., Santos, J.V., Santric-Milicevic, M.M., Sathian, B., Savic, M., Saxena, D., Sayyah, M., Schwendicke, F., Senthilkumaran, S., Sepanlou, S.G., Seylani, A., Shahabi, S., Shaikh, M.A., Sheikh, A., Shetty, A., Shetty, P.H., Shibuya, K., Shrime, M.G., Shuja, K.H., Singh, J.A., Skryabin, V.Y., Skryabina, A.A., Soltani, S., Soofi, M., Spurlock, E.E., Stefan, S.C., Szerencsés, V., Szócska, M., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Taddele, B.W., Tefera, Y.G., Thavamani, A., Tobe-Gai, R., Topor-Madry, R., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Tran, B.X., Tudor Car, L., Ullah, A., Ullah, S., Umar, N., Undurraga, E.A., Valdez, P.R., Vasankari, T.J., Villafañe, J.H., Violante, F.S., Vlassov, V., Vo, B., Vollmer, S., Vos, T., Vu, G.T., Vu, L.G., Wamai, R.G., Werdecker, A., Woldekidan, M.A., Wubishet, B.L., Xu, G., Yaya, S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yiğit, V., Yip, P., Yirdaw, B.W., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M.Z., Yu, C., Yunusa, I., Zahirian Moghadam, T., Zandian, H., Zastrozhin, M.S., Zastrozhina, A., Zhang, Z-J, Ziapour, A., Zuniga, Y.M.H., Hay, S.I., Murray, C. J.L., and Dieleman, J.L.

Abstract

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7–8·8) or $1132 (1119–1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this tota

Published
2021

19. Obesity and the Risk of Infertility, Gestational Diabetes, and Type 2 Diabetes in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

Author

Pirotta S., Joham A., Grieger J.A., Tay C.T., Bahri-Khomami M., Lujan M., Lim S.S., Moran L.J., Pirotta S., Joham A., Grieger J.A., Tay C.T., Bahri-Khomami M., Lujan M., Lim S.S., and Moran L.J.

Abstract

This review describes the relationship between obesity and the most common reproductive (infertility) and metabolic (gestational diabetes mellitus [GDM] and type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM]) consequences in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). It also describes the vital role of lifestyle management for PCOS. PCOS is a heterogeneous endocrine disorder common in reproductive-age women. Consensus on the exact etiological mechanisms of PCOS is unreached. Overweight or obesity is present in at least 60% of the PCOS population, but the condition occurs irrespective of BMI, with excess BMI increasing both the prevalence and severity of clinical features. Use of lifestyle therapies (nutrition, physical activity, and/or behavioral) for the prevention and management of excess weight gain, infertility, GDM, and T2DM is a vital component of best-practice PCOS care. Lifestyle management is recommended for all women with PCOS as the first-line treatment with or without medications. Due to a lack of high-quality trials demonstrating the efficacy of specific lifestyle approaches, PCOS lifestyle recommendations are as those for the general population. This review summarizes current knowledge relating to obesity and its impact on fertility, GDM, and T2DM. It also summarizes the lifestyle recommendations to best manage these conditions in women with PCOS and obesity.Copyright © 2021. Thieme. All rights reserved.

Published
2021

20. Implementation of evidence-based PCOS lifestyle management guidelines: Perceived barriers and facilitators by consumers using the Theoretical Domains Framework and COM-B Model.

Author

Pirotta S., Joham A.J., Moran L.J., Skouteris H., Lim S.S., Pirotta S., Joham A.J., Moran L.J., Skouteris H., and Lim S.S.

Abstract

Background: The 2018 Evidence-Based Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) Clinical Guidelines recommend lifestyle management as first-line treatment for PCOS, yet implementation of PCOS lifestyle programs into practice is not well understood. Objective(s): To complete systematic intervention mapping by identifying the facilitators and barriers to lifestyle management in women with PCOS using the theoretical domains framework (TDF) and the Capacity, Opportunity, Motivation and Behaviour model (COM-B). Patient involvement: Women (N = 20) in Australian with PCOS were interviewed. Method(s): Telephone semi-structured interviews. Result(s): Nine themes mapped onto seven TDF domains and the COM-B. Capability: psychological co-morbidities, knowledge and awareness of lifestyle change and ability to identify and resolve barriers. Opportunity: presence of other medical conditions, access to practical resources and availability of social support. Motivation: outcomes expectancies of lifestyle behaviour, personal values, enjoyment and readiness to change and the impact of stress on lifestyle choices. Discussion(s): This is the first study to explore barriers and facilitators to lifestyle change from the perspectives of women with PCOS using the TDF and COM-B. Addressing these themes will facilitate patient-centred care and long-term behaviour change. Practical implications: May increase the efficacy and effectiveness of PCOS lifestyle programs and reduce the risk of PCOS-associated disease in this population.Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V.

Published
2021

21. Informing a PCOS Lifestyle Program: Mapping Behavior Change Techniques to Barriers and Enablers to Behavior Change Using the Theoretical Domains Framework.

Author

Pirotta S., Joham A.E., Moran L.J., Skouteris H., Lim S.S., Pirotta S., Joham A.E., Moran L.J., Skouteris H., and Lim S.S.

Abstract

This article aimed to identify the behavior change techniques (BCTs) based on facilitators and barriers to lifestyle management in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) according to the behavior change wheel (BCW). This qualitative study design using inductive thematic analysis following semistructured interviews (n = 20) identified barriers and enablers to lifestyle management. These were then mapped to Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behavioral Model (COM-B) constructs and the corresponding Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) domains. This study included women with PCOS residing in Australia. Main outcome measures include intervention functions, policy categories, and BCTs described in the BCW. Twenty-three BCTs were recognized to influence behavior change in women with PCOS. Factors were categorized into the subcomponents of the COM-B: psychological capability (e.g., lack of credible information), physical capability (e.g., managing multiple health conditions), physical opportunity (e.g., limited access to resources), social opportunity (e.g., adequate social support), reflective motivation (e.g., positive health expectancies following behavior change), and automatic motivation (e.g., emotional eating). Future research should use this work to guide PCOS lifestyle intervention development and then test intervention effectiveness through an experimental phase to provide empirical evidence for wider use and implementation of tailored, theory-informed PCOS lifestyle programs as part of evidence-based PCOS management.Copyright © 2021. Thieme. All rights reserved.

Published
2021

22. Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Models of Care: A Review and Qualitative Evaluation of a Guideline-Recommended Integrated Care.

Author

Tay C.T., Pirotta S., Teede H.J., Moran L.J., Robinson T., Skouteris H., Joham A.E., Lim S.S., Tay C.T., Pirotta S., Teede H.J., Moran L.J., Robinson T., Skouteris H., Joham A.E., and Lim S.S.

Abstract

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a heterogeneous disorder and many women are dissatisfied with their healthcare under the current fragmented health services. Here, we review existing literature on PCOS healthcare services and qualitatively evaluate an integrated PCOS service based on experiences of women with PCOS. Limited prior PCOS-dedicated services have been studied and their quantitative and efficacy-focused evaluations are summarized. Here, we also provide a broader PCOS service evaluation via semistructured interviews and surveys, with thematic analysis based on a predetermined evaluation framework. Fifteen women completed interviews and surveys. Overall the integrated, evidence-based PCOS service was well-received and women were generally satisfied with appropriateness, effectiveness, and reported positive health impact resulting from the service. Integrated care, tailored treatments, education, lifestyle support, and laser therapy were highly valued. Patients reported improvements on symptoms, understanding and confidence in managing PCOS, and emotional well-being. Elements of efficiency in the initial stages, awareness and communication, and the need for service expansion and tensions between evidence-based treatments and patient preferences were also captured to guide improvement. Further research into models of care is recommended to meet the needs of women with PCOS.Copyright © 2021 Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved.

Published
2021

23. Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries.

Author

Sambala E.Z., Waheed Y., Wakefield J., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weldesamuel G.T., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Wiangkham T., Wiens K.E., Wiysonge C.S., Woldu G., Wondafrash D.Z., Wonde T.E., Wu A.-M., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yeheyis T.Y., Yeshaw Y., Yilgwan C.S., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefi Z., Yousefifard M., Yousefinezhadi T., Yu C., Yusefzadeh H., Zadey S., Zahirian Moghadam T., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zamanian M., Zandian H., Zangeneh A., Zarei F., Zerfu T.A., Zhang Y., Zhang Z.-J., Zhao X.-J.G., Zhou M., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Lim S.S., Mosser J.F., Biswas A., Sbarra A.N., Rolfe S., Nguyen J.Q., Earl L., Galles N.C., Marks A., Abbas K.M., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abdollahi M., Abegaz K.H., Abiy H.A.A., Abolhassani H., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abushouk A.I., Accrombessi M.M.K., Adabi M., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adham D., Afarideh M., Aghaali M., Ahmad T., Ahmadi R., Ahmadi K., Ahmed M.B., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal J.E., Alemnew B.T., Ali B.A., Ali M., Alijanzadeh M., Alinia C., Alipoor R., Alipour V., Alizade H., Aljunid S.M., Almasi A., Almasi-Hashiani A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Altirkawi K.A., Amare B., Amini S., Amini-Rarani M., Amiri F., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Andrei C.L., Anjomshoa M., Ansari F., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Antriyandarti E., Anvari D., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Aremu O., Armoon B., Aryal K.K., Arzani A., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Asgari S., Atafar Z., Ausloos M., Awoke N., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Azadmehr A., Azari S., Babaee E., Badawi A., Badiye A.D., Bahrami M.A., Baig A.A., Bakhtiari A., Balakrishnan S., Banach M., Banik P.C., Barac A., Baradaran-Seyed Z., Baraki A.G., Basu S., Bayati M., Bayou Y.T., Bedi N., Behzadifar M., Bell M.L., Berbada D.A., Berhe K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Birhanu M., Bisanzio D., Bohlouli S., Bolla S.R., Borzouei S., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Briko A.N., Briko N.I., Nagaraja S.B., Butt Z.A., Camera L.A., Campos-Nonato I.R., Car J., Cardenas R., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castro F., Chattu V.K., Chehrazi M., Chin K.L., Chu D.-T., Cook A.J., Cormier N.M., Cunningham B., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona R., Dandona L., Danovaro M.C., Dansereau E., Daoud F., Darwesh A.M., Darwish A.H., Das J.K., Weaver N.D., De Neve J.-W., Demeke F.M., Demis A.B., Denova-Gutierrez E., Desalew A., Deshpande A., Desta D.M., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Diaz D., Dipeolu I.O., Djalalinia S., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Doyle K.E., Dunachie S.J., Duraes A.R., Kalan M.E., Leylabadlo H.E., Edinur H.A., Effiong A., Eftekhari A., El Sayed I., El Sayed Zaki M., Elema T.B., Elhabashy H.R., El-Jaafary S.I., Elsharkawy A., Emamian M.H., Enany S., Eshrati B., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esmaeilzadeh F., Esteghamati A., Etisso A.E., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Fareed M., Faridnia R., Farioli A., Farzadfar F., Fattahi N., Fazlzadeh M., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Foroutan M., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Gad M.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremariam K.T., Gebremedhin K.B., Gebremeskel G.G., Gebreslassie A.A., Gedefaw G.A., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghaffari R., Ghaffarifar F., Ghajarzadeh M., Gheshlagh R.G., Ghashghaee A., Ghiasvand H., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Girmay A., Gomes N.G.M., Gopalani S.V., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Guimaraes R.A., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haj-Mirzaian A., Handiso D.W., Hanif A., Haririan H., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan M.M., Hasanpoor E., Hasanzadeh A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Henry N.J., Herteliu C., Heydarpour F., Hollerich G.I., Rad E.H., Hoogar P., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hu G., Huda T.M., Humayun A., Ibitoye S.E., Ikilezi G., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic I.M., Ilic M.D., Imani-Nasab M.H., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Islam M.M., Iwu C.J., Iwu C.C.D., Jadidi-Niaragh F., Jafarinia M., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M., Jalali A., Jalilian F., Javidnia J., Jenabi E., Jha V., Ji J.S., John O., Johnson K.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kabir A., Kalani H., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamal Z., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami M., Matin B.K., Karch A., Karimi S.E., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Keiyoro P.N., Khader Y.S., Khafaie M.A., Khammarnia M., Khan M.S., Khan E.A., Khan J., Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Khayamzadeh M., Khazaei M., Khazaei S., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kolola T., Komaki H., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kraemer M.U.G., Krishan K., Kuate Defo B., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kumar G.A., Kusuma D., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lad S.D., Lal D.K., Lam F., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Larson H.J., Lasrado S., Lee S.W.H., Lee P.H., LeGrand K.E., Lenjebo T.L., Li S., Liang X., Liu P.Y., Lopukhov P.D., Machado D.B., Mahasha P.W., Mahdavi M.M., Maheri M., Mahotra N.B., Maled V., Maleki S., Malik M.A., Malta D.C., Mansour-Ghanaei F., Mansouri B., Mansourian M., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Mayala B.K., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehri F., Mehta K.M., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mengesha M.B., Mengesha E.W., Mestrovic T., Mihretie K.M., Miller-Petrie M.K., Mills E.J., Milne G.J., Mirabi P., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei R., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei H.R., Mirzaei H., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad D.K., Mohammad Y., Mohammad K.A., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadbeigi A., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Mohammed A.S., Mohammed H., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Moosavi M.A., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Joo M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosapour A., Mouodi S., Mousavi S.M., Khaneghah A.M., Mueller U.O., Muluneh A.G., Munro S.B., Murray C.J.L., Murthy G.V.S., Muthupandian S., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen C.T.K., Nguyen T.H., Nigatu Y.T., Nikbakhsh R., Nikfar S., Nikpoor A.R., Ningrum D.N.A., Nnaji C.A., Oh I.-H., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Bali A.O., Omer M.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Owolabi M.O., P A M., Padubidri J.R., Pakshir K., Pana A., Pandey A., Pando-Robles V., Pashaei T., Pasupula D.K., Paternina-Caicedo A.J., Patton G.C., Pazoki Toroudi H., Pepito V.C.F., Pescarini J.M., Pigott D.M., Pilgrim T., Pirsaheb M., Poljak M., Postma M.J., Pourjafar H., Pourmalek F., Pourmirza Kalhori R., Prada S.I., Prakash S., Quazi Syed Z., Quintana H., Rabiee N., Rabiee M., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rajati F., Rameto M.A., Ramezanzadeh K., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rasella D., Rastogi P., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Rawat R., Renjith V., Renzaho A.M.N., Reshmi B., Reta M.A., Rezaei N., Rezai M.S., Rezapour A., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.I., Rickard J., Rios-Blancas M., Rios-Gonzalez C.M., Roever L., Rostamian M., Rubino S., Rwegerera G.M., Saad A.M., Saadatagah S., Sabour S., Sadeghi E., Moghaddam S.S., Saeidi S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi S.M., Salahshoor M.R., Salam N., Salem H., Salem M.R., Salomon J.A., Kafil H.S., Samy A.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Saroshe S., Sartorius B., Sarveazad A., Sathian B., Sathish T., Schaeffer L.E., Schwebel D.C., Senthilkumaran S., Shabaninejad H., Shahabi S., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shalash A.S., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M.B., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sharifi H., Sheikh A., Sheikhtaheri A., Shetty R.S., Shiferaw W.S., Shigematsu M., Shin J.I., Shirkoohi R., Siabani S., Siddiqi T.J., Silverberg J.I.S., Simonetti B., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Sinke A.H., Soheili A., Sokhan A., Soltani S., Soofi M., Sorrie M.B., Soyiri I.N., Spotin A., Spurlock E.E., Sreeramareddy C.T., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Suleria H.A.R., Abdulkader R.S., Taherkhani A., Tapak L., Taveira N., Taymoori P., Tefera Y.M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Teklehaimanot B.F., Tekulu G.H., Tesfay B.E., Tessema Z.T., Tessema B., Thankappan K.R., Tohidinik H.R., Topor-Madry R., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Uddin R., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Usman M.S., Vaezi M., Valadan Tahbaz S., Valdez P.R., Vasseghian Y., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vollmer S., Sambala E.Z., Waheed Y., Wakefield J., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weldesamuel G.T., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Wiangkham T., Wiens K.E., Wiysonge C.S., Woldu G., Wondafrash D.Z., Wonde T.E., Wu A.-M., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yeheyis T.Y., Yeshaw Y., Yilgwan C.S., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefi Z., Yousefifard M., Yousefinezhadi T., Yu C., Yusefzadeh H., Zadey S., Zahirian Moghadam T., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zamanian M., Zandian H., Zangeneh A., Zarei F., Zerfu T.A., Zhang Y., Zhang Z.-J., Zhao X.-J.G., Zhou M., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Lim S.S., Mosser J.F., Biswas A., Sbarra A.N., Rolfe S., Nguyen J.Q., Earl L., Galles N.C., Marks A., Abbas K.M., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abdollahi M., Abegaz K.H., Abiy H.A.A., Abolhassani H., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abushouk A.I., Accrombessi M.M.K., Adabi M., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adham D., Afarideh M., Aghaali M., Ahmad T., Ahmadi R., Ahmadi K., Ahmed M.B., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal J.E., Alemnew B.T., Ali B.A., Ali M., Alijanzadeh M., Alinia C., Alipoor R., Alipour V., Alizade H., Aljunid S.M., Almasi A., Almasi-Hashiani A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Altirkawi K.A., Amare B., Amini S., Amini-Rarani M., Amiri F., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Andrei C.L., Anjomshoa M., Ansari F., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Antriyandarti E., Anvari D., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Aremu O., Armoon B., Aryal K.K., Arzani A., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Asgari S., Atafar Z., Ausloos M., Awoke N., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Azadmehr A., Azari S., Babaee E., Badawi A., Badiye A.D., Bahrami M.A., Baig A.A., Bakhtiari A., Balakrishnan S., Banach M., Banik P.C., Barac A., Baradaran-Seyed Z., Baraki A.G., Basu S., Bayati M., Bayou Y.T., Bedi N., Behzadifar M., Bell M.L., Berbada D.A., Berhe K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Birhanu M., Bisanzio D., Bohlouli S., Bolla S.R., Borzouei S., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Briko A.N., Briko N.I., Nagaraja S.B., Butt Z.A., Camera L.A., Campos-Nonato I.R., Car J., Cardenas R., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castro F., Chattu V.K., Chehrazi M., Chin K.L., Chu D.-T., Cook A.J., Cormier N.M., Cunningham B., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona R., Dandona L., Danovaro M.C., Dansereau E., Daoud F., Darwesh A.M., Darwish A.H., Das J.K., Weaver N.D., De Neve J.-W., Demeke F.M., Demis A.B., Denova-Gutierrez E., Desalew A., Deshpande A., Desta D.M., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Diaz D., Dipeolu I.O., Djalalinia S., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Doyle K.E., Dunachie S.J., Duraes A.R., Kalan M.E., Leylabadlo H.E., Edinur H.A., Effiong A., Eftekhari A., El Sayed I., El Sayed Zaki M., Elema T.B., Elhabashy H.R., El-Jaafary S.I., Elsharkawy A., Emamian M.H., Enany S., Eshrati B., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esmaeilzadeh F., Esteghamati A., Etisso A.E., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Fareed M., Faridnia R., Farioli A., Farzadfar F., Fattahi N., Fazlzadeh M., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Foroutan M., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Gad M.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremariam K.T., Gebremedhin K.B., Gebremeskel G.G., Gebreslassie A.A., Gedefaw G.A., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghaffari R., Ghaffarifar F., Ghajarzadeh M., Gheshlagh R.G., Ghashghaee A., Ghiasvand H., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Girmay A., Gomes N.G.M., Gopalani S.V., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Guimaraes R.A., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haj-Mirzaian A., Handiso D.W., Hanif A., Haririan H., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan M.M., Hasanpoor E., Hasanzadeh A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Henry N.J., Herteliu C., Heydarpour F., Hollerich G.I., Rad E.H., Hoogar P., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hu G., Huda T.M., Humayun A., Ibitoye S.E., Ikilezi G., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic I.M., Ilic M.D., Imani-Nasab M.H., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Islam M.M., Iwu C.J., Iwu C.C.D., Jadidi-Niaragh F., Jafarinia M., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M., Jalali A., Jalilian F., Javidnia J., Jenabi E., Jha V., Ji J.S., John O., Johnson K.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kabir A., Kalani H., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamal Z., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami M., Matin B.K., Karch A., Karimi S.E., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Keiyoro P.N., Khader Y.S., Khafaie M.A., Khammarnia M., Khan M.S., Khan E.A., Khan J., Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Khayamzadeh M., Khazaei M., Khazaei S., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kolola T., Komaki H., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kraemer M.U.G., Krishan K., Kuate Defo B., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kumar G.A., Kusuma D., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lad S.D., Lal D.K., Lam F., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Larson H.J., Lasrado S., Lee S.W.H., Lee P.H., LeGrand K.E., Lenjebo T.L., Li S., Liang X., Liu P.Y., Lopukhov P.D., Machado D.B., Mahasha P.W., Mahdavi M.M., Maheri M., Mahotra N.B., Maled V., Maleki S., Malik M.A., Malta D.C., Mansour-Ghanaei F., Mansouri B., Mansourian M., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Mayala B.K., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehri F., Mehta K.M., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mengesha M.B., Mengesha E.W., Mestrovic T., Mihretie K.M., Miller-Petrie M.K., Mills E.J., Milne G.J., Mirabi P., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei R., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei H.R., Mirzaei H., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad D.K., Mohammad Y., Mohammad K.A., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadbeigi A., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Mohammed A.S., Mohammed H., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Moosavi M.A., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Joo M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosapour A., Mouodi S., Mousavi S.M., Khaneghah A.M., Mueller U.O., Muluneh A.G., Munro S.B., Murray C.J.L., Murthy G.V.S., Muthupandian S., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen C.T.K., Nguyen T.H., Nigatu Y.T., Nikbakhsh R., Nikfar S., Nikpoor A.R., Ningrum D.N.A., Nnaji C.A., Oh I.-H., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Bali A.O., Omer M.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Owolabi M.O., P A M., Padubidri J.R., Pakshir K., Pana A., Pandey A., Pando-Robles V., Pashaei T., Pasupula D.K., Paternina-Caicedo A.J., Patton G.C., Pazoki Toroudi H., Pepito V.C.F., Pescarini J.M., Pigott D.M., Pilgrim T., Pirsaheb M., Poljak M., Postma M.J., Pourjafar H., Pourmalek F., Pourmirza Kalhori R., Prada S.I., Prakash S., Quazi Syed Z., Quintana H., Rabiee N., Rabiee M., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rajati F., Rameto M.A., Ramezanzadeh K., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rasella D., Rastogi P., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Rawat R., Renjith V., Renzaho A.M.N., Reshmi B., Reta M.A., Rezaei N., Rezai M.S., Rezapour A., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.I., Rickard J., Rios-Blancas M., Rios-Gonzalez C.M., Roever L., Rostamian M., Rubino S., Rwegerera G.M., Saad A.M., Saadatagah S., Sabour S., Sadeghi E., Moghaddam S.S., Saeidi S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi S.M., Salahshoor M.R., Salam N., Salem H., Salem M.R., 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Upadhyay E., Usman M.S., Vaezi M., Valadan Tahbaz S., Valdez P.R., Vasseghian Y., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., and Vollmer S.

Abstract

The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1-4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5-8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 x 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.Copyright © 2020, The Author(s).

Published
2021

24. Relationships between self-management strategies and physical activity and diet quality in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

Author

Pirotta S., Lim S.S., Grassi A., Couch L.M., Jeanes Y.M., Joham A.J., Teede H., Moran L.J., Pirotta S., Lim S.S., Grassi A., Couch L.M., Jeanes Y.M., Joham A.J., Teede H., and Moran L.J.

Abstract

Objective: To determine the relationships of self-management strategies and physical activity (PA) and diet quality in women with PCOS. Method(s): An online cross-sectional study involving women (n = 501), 18-45 years in the general Australian community with a self-reported PCOS diagnosis. The self-management and lifestyle behaviour questionnaires were completed between August 2017 and March 2018. Result(s): Implementation of PA related self-management strategies increased the odds of meeting PA recommendations [Odds ratio (OR): 2.929 (95%CI: 2.172, 3.951), p < 0.001] but had no association with body mass index (BMI) [OR: 0.-0.984 (95%CI: - 1.010, 0.959), p = 0.217] nor perception of self weight [OR: 1.382 (95% CI: 0.700, 2.725), p = 0.352]. Nutrition related self-management strategies were inversely associated with BMI [OR: - 0.115 (95%CI: - 7.159, - 0.980), p = 0.010] but had no association with diet quality [OR: 0.183 (95%CI: - 2.328, 2.800), p = 0.855], energy intake [OR: - 0.092 (95%CI: - 1204.443, 527.496) p = 0.438] or weight [OR: - 0.034 (95%CI: - 4.020, 1.930), p = 0.491]. Conclusion(s): PA self-management strategies were associated with meeting PA recommendations. Nutrition strategies were associated with lower BMI but not diet quality, energy intake or weight in women with PCOS. Practice implications: Other behaviour change determinants (e.g. education, skills and self-efficacy) should be considered when designing a PCOS lifestyle programme in conjunction with self-management strategies.Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V.

Published
2021

28. Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Murray, C.J.L., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K.M., Abbasi, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdollahi, M., Abedi, P., Abedi, A., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abreu, L.G., Abrigo, M.R.M., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Abu Haimed, A.K., Abushouk, A.I., Acebedo, A., Ackerman, I.N., Adabi, M., Adamu, A.A., Adebayo, O.M., Adelson, J.D., Adetokunboh, O.O., Afarideh, M., Afshin, A., Agarwal, G., Agrawal, A., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmed, M.B., Aji, B., Akinyemiju, T., Akombi, B., Alahdab, F., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Albertson, S.B., Alemu, B.W., Alemu, Y.M., Alhabib, K.F., Ali, M., Ali, S., Alicandro, G., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Alla, F., Allebeck, P., Almadi, M.A.H., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Almulhim, A.M., Alonso, J., Al-Raddadi, R.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, B., Amare, A.T, Amini, S., Amit, A.M.L., Amugsi, D.A., Anbesu, E.W., Ancuceanu, R., Anderlini, D., Anderson, J.A., Andrei, T., Andrei, C.L., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonio, C.A.T., Antony, C.M., Anvari, D., Appiah, S.C.Y., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aravkin, A.Y., Arba, A.A.K., Aripov, T., Ärnlöv, J., Arowosegbe, O.O., Asaad, M., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Asadi-Pooya, A.A., Ashbaugh, C., Assmus, M., Atout, M.M.W., Ausloos, M., Ausloos, F., Ayala Quintanilla, B.P., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M.A., Azari, S., Azene, Z.N., Babaee, E., Badawi, A., Badiye, A.D., Bagherzadeh, M., Bairwa, M., Bakhtiari, A., Bakkannavar, S.M., Balachandran, A., Banach, M., Banerjee, S.K., Banik, P.C., Baraki, A.G., Barker-Collo, S.L., Basaleem, H., Basu, S., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Baye, B.A., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Bell, M.L., Bensenor, I.M., Berhe, K., Berman, A.E., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhala, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z.A., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Biondi, A., Bisignano, C., Biswas, R.K., Bjørge, T., Bohlouli, S., Bohluli, M., Bolla, S.R.R., Boloor, A., Bose, D., Boufous, S., Brady, O.J., Braithwaite, D., Brauer, M., Breitborde, N.J.K, Brenner, H., Breusov, A.V., Briant, P.S., Briggs, A.M., Britton, G.B., Brugha, T., Burugina Nagaraja, S., Busse, R., Butt, Z.A., Caetano dos Santos, F.L., Cámera, L.L.A., Campos-Nonato, I.R., Campuzano Rincon, J.C., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Carreras, G., Carrero, J. J., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J.M., Castelpietra, G., Castro, F., Catalá-López, F., Causey, K., Cederroth, C.R., Cercy, K.M., Cerin, E., Chandan, J.S., Chang, J-C, Charan, J., Charlson, F. 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Abstract

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Published
2020

29. Innate Immune Molecule NLRC5 Protects Mice From Helicobacter-induced Formation of Gastric Lymphoid Tissue.

Author

Ferrero R.L., Ferrand J., Chaudhry H.M., Higgins C., Tran L.S., Lim S.S., Walker M.M., Bhathal P.S., Dev A., Moore G.T., Sievert W., Jenkins B.J., Philpott D.J., Kufer T.A., D'Elios M.M., Chonwerawong M., Ferrero R.L., Ferrand J., Chaudhry H.M., Higgins C., Tran L.S., Lim S.S., Walker M.M., Bhathal P.S., Dev A., Moore G.T., Sievert W., Jenkins B.J., Philpott D.J., Kufer T.A., D'Elios M.M., and Chonwerawong M.

Abstract

Background & Aims: Helicobacter pylori induces strong inflammatory responses that are directed at clearing the infection, but if not controlled, these responses can be harmful to the host. We investigated the immune-regulatory effects of the innate immune molecule, nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptors (NLR) family CARD domain-containing 5 (NLRC5), in patients and mice with Helicobacter infection. Method(s): We obtained gastric biopsies from 30 patients in Australia. We performed studies with mice that lack NLRC5 in the myeloid linage (Nlrc5moKO) and mice without Nlrc5 gene disruption (controls). Some mice were gavaged with H pylori SS1 or Helicobacter felis; 3 months later, stomachs, spleens, and sera were collected, along with macrophages derived from bone marrow. Human and mouse gastric tissues and mouse macrophages were analyzed by histology, immunohistochemistry, immunoblots, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. THP-1 cells (human macrophages, controls) and NLRC5-/- THP-1 cells (generated by CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing) were incubated with Helicobacter and gene expression and production of cytokines were analyzed. Result(s): Levels of NLRC5 messenger RNA were significantly increased in gastric tissues from patients with H pylori infection, compared with patients without infection (P <.01), and correlated with gastritis severity (P <.05). H pylori bacteria induced significantly higher levels of chemokine and cytokine production by NLRC5-/- THP-1 macrophages than by control THP-1 cells (P <.05). After 3 months of infection with H felis, Nlrc5mo-KO mice developed gastric hyperplasia (P <.0001), splenomegaly (P <.0001), and increased serum antibody titers (P <.01), whereas control mice did not. Nlrc5mo-KO mice with chronic H felis infection had increased numbers of gastric B-cell follicles expressing CD19 (P <.0001); these follicles had features of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma. We identified B-cell-activating factor as a protein

Published
2020

30. Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Author

Hamadeh R.R., Soyiri I.N., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Sripada K., Stovner L.J., Stockfelt L., Sultan I., Swope C.B., Vaicekonyte R., Sykes B.L., Szumowski L., Tabb K.M., Tabuchi T., Taddele B.W., Tahir Z., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Taveira N., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Varughese S., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tsatsakis A., Vardavas C., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Undurraga E.A., Upadhyay E., Vasankari T.J., Vasconcelos A.N., Veisani Y., Vidale S., Waheed Y., Wei J., Wang F., Zhao X.G., Wang Y., Yu C., Zhang Z., Wang H., Weiss J., Wiangkham T., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wu A., Xie Y., Xu G., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S., Yilgwan C.S., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Younker T.P., Yu Y., Zaidi S., Zhang J., Zhang Y., Zheleva B., Zhu C., Abbafati C., Machado D.B., Cislaghi B., Salman O.M., Karanikolos M., McKee M., Abbas K.M., Brady O.J., Larson H.J., Trias-Llimos S., Cummins S., Langan S.M., Sartorius B., Hafiz A., Jenabi E., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Borzouei S., Azarian G., Khazaei S., Abbasi M., Asghari B., Masoumi S., Komaki H., Taherkhani A., Adabi M., Abbasifard M., Bazmandegan G., Kamiab Z., Vakilian A., Anjomshoa M., Mokari A., Sabour S., Shahbaz M., Saeedi R., Ahmadieh H., Yousefinezhadi T., Haj-Mirzaian A., Nikbakhsh R., Safi S., Asgari S., Irvani S.N., Jahanmehr N., Ramezanzadeh K., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Khayamzadeh M., Abbastabar H., Shirkoohi R., Fazlzadeh M., Janjani H., Hosseini M., Mansournia M., Tohidinik H., Bakhtiari A., Fazaeli A., Mousavi S., Hasanzadeh A., Nabavizadeh B., Malekzadeh R., Hashemian M., Pourshams A., Salimzadeh H., Sepanlou S.G., Afarideh M., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Ghajar A., Heidari B., Rezaei N., Mohamadi E., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahim F., Eskandarieh S., Sahraian M., Mohebi F., Aminorroaya A., Ebrahimi H., Farzadfar F., Mohajer B., Pishgar F., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Shabani M., Zarafshan H., Abolhassani H., Hafezi-Nejad N., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Abdollahi M., Farahmand M., Salamati P., Mehrabi Nasab E., Tajdini M., Aghamir S., 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Abstract

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

Published
2020

31. Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Author

Shetty B.S.K., Stein C., Stokes M.A., Sufiyan M.B., Suleria H.A.R., Sultan I., Szumowski L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S.K., Taddele B.W., Tadesse D.B., Taherkhani A., Tamiru A.T., Tanser F.C., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Teagle W.L., Tediosi F., Tefera Y.G.G., Tela F.G., Tessema Z.T., Thakur B., Titova M.V., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tovani-Palone M.R.R., Tran B.X., Travillian R., Troeger C.E., Tudor Car L., Uddin R., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uthman O.A., Vacante M., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Vasseghian Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vongpradith A., Vos T., Waheed Y., Walters M.K., Wamai R.G., Wang H., Wang Y.-P., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Wilner L.B., Woldu G., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu A.-M., Wulf Hanson S., Xie Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamagishi K., Yano Y., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yearwood J.A., Yeshitila Y.G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefi Z., Yousefinezhadi T., Yusefzadeh H., Zadey S., Zahirian Moghadam T., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zandian H., Zastrozhin M.S., Zewdie K.A., Zhang Y., Zhao X.-J.G., Zhao Y., Zheng P., Zhu C., Ziapour A., Zlavog B.S., Zodpey S., Murray C.J.L., Lozano R., Fullman N., Mumford J.E., Knight M., Barthelemy C.M., Abbafati C., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdollahi M., Abedi A., Abolhassani H., Abosetugn A.E., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu Haimed A.K., Abushouk A.I., Adabi M., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adelson J., Adetokunboh O.O., Adham D., Advani S.M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Aghamir S.M.K., Agrawal A., Ahmad T., Akinyemi R.O., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Albertson S.B., Alemu Y.M., Alhassan R.K., Ali M., Ali S., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Alla F., Almadi M.A.H., Almasi A., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almasri N.A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Almulhim A.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Alvis-Zakzuk N.J., Amini S., Amini-Rarani M., Amiri F., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari F., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Antonio C.A.T., Antony C.M., Antriyandarti E., Anvari D., Anwer R., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Aravkin A.Y., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Asaad M., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Asadi-Pooya A.A., Athari S.S., Atout M.M.W., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayano G., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Aynalem G.L., Ayza M.A., Azari S., Azzopardi P.S., B D.B., Babaee E., Badiye A.D., Bahrami M.A., Baig A.A., Bakhshaei M.H., Bakhtiari A., Bakkannavar S.M., Balachandran A., Banach M., Banerjee S.K., Banik P.C., Bante A.B., Bante S.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Bassat Q., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bekuma T.T.T., Bell M.L., Bensenor I.M., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj P., Bhat A.G., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Biondi A., Birihane B.M., Bockarie M.J., Bohlouli S., Bojia H.A., Bolla S.R.R., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Braithwaite D., Briggs A.M., Briko N.I., Burugina Nagaraja S., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Caetano dos Santos F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L.A., Cardenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castelpietra G., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cederroth C.R., Cerin E., Chandan J.S., Chang A.Y., Charan J., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chin K.L., Cho D.Y., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Chung M.T., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Compton K., Cortesi P.A., Costa V.M., Cousin E., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona L., Dandona R., Darega Gela J., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Dash A.P., Davey G., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davletov K., De Neve J.-W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Desai R., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Dias da Silva D., Diaz D., Dippenaar I.N., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Edvardsson D., El Sayed I., El Tantawi M., Elgendy I.Y., Elyazar I.R., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esteghamati A., Ezekannagha O., Farag T., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Farioli A., Faris P.S., Faro A., Fazlzadeh M., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fisher J.L., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fomenkov A.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fu W., Fukumoto T., Furtado J.M., Gad M.M., Gaidhane A.M., Gakidou E., Galles N.C., Gallus S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremeskel L.G., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghafourifard M., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginindza T.G., Gitimoghaddam M., Giussani G., Glagn M., Gnedovskaya E.V., Godinho M.A., Goharinezhad S., Gopalani S.V., Goudarzian A.H., Goulart B.N.G., Gubari M.I.M., Guimaraes R.A., Guled R.A., Gultie T., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hafiz A., Haile T.G., Hamadeh R.R., Hameed S., Hamidi S., Han C., Han H., Handiso D.W., Hanif A., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan M.M., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hassan A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Havmoeller R.J., Hay S.I., Hayat K., Heidari G., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Hendrie D., Herteliu C., Hird T.R., Ho H.C., Hole M.K., Holla R., Hoogar P., Hopf K.P., Horita N., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Hsieh V.C.-R., Hu G., Huda T.M., Humayun A., Hwang B.-F., Iavicoli I., Ibitoye S.E., Ikeda N., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam M.M., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Iso H., Iwu C.J., Jaafari J., Jadidi-Niaragh F., Jafarinia M., Jahagirdar D., Jahani M.A., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M., Janjani H., Javaheri T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jenabi E., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Jia P., John-Akinola Y.O., Jonas J.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A.M., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami Matin B., Karanikolos M., Karimi S.M., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kayode G.A., Keiyoro P.N., Khader Y.S., Khammarnia M., Khan M., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Khayamzadeh M., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Kneib C.J., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kohler S., Kopec J.A., Korotkova A.V., Korshunov V.A., Kosen S., Kotlo A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kugbey N., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Kyu H.H., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lau K.M.-M., Lauriola P., Lazarus J.V., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Lee S.W.H., Leever A.T., LeGrand K.E., Leigh J., Leonardi M., Li S., Lim S.S., Lim L.-L., Liu X., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lopukhov P.D., Lotufo P.A., Lu A., Ma J., Madadin M., Mahasha P.W., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Malagon-Rojas J.N., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mansouri B., Mansournia M.A., Martini S., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Massenburg B.B., Mastrogiacomo C.I., Mathur M.R., McAlinden C., McKee M., Medina-Solis C.E., Meharie B.G., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrabi Nasab E., Mehri F., Mehrotra R., Mekonnen T., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I.M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad Y., Mohammad D.K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed S., Mohammed J.A., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Mondello S., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Mosser J.F., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Naghshtabrizi B., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Ngari K.N., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen D.N., Nguyen H.L.T., Nnaji C.A., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J., Nowak C., Nunez-Samudio V., Otoiu A., Ogbo F.A., Oghenetega O.B., Oh I.-H., Okunga E.W., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Oluwasanu M.M., Omar Bali A., Omer M.O., Ong K.L., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V.V., Ortiz A., Ostojic S.M., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Overland S., Owolabi M.O., Padubidri J.R., Pakhale S., Palladino R., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Pangaribuan H.U., Pathak M., Patton G.C., Paudel S., Pazoki Toroudi H., Pease S.A., Peden A.E., Pennini A., Peprah E.K., Pereira J., Pigott D.M., Pilgrim T., Pilz T.M., Pinheiro M., Piradov M.A., Pirsaheb M., Pokhrel K.N., Postma M.J., Pourjafar H., Pourmalek F., Pourmirza Kalhori R., Pourshams A., Prada S.I., Pribadi D.R.A., Pupillo E., Quazi Syed Z., Radfar A., Rafiee A., Rafiei A., Raggi A., Rahim F., Rahman M.A., Rajabpour-Sanati A., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rasella D., Rashedi V., Rath G.K., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Razo C., Renjith V., Renzaho A.M.N., Reshmi B., Rezaei N., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro D.C., Rickard J., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Romoli M., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rubagotti E., Rwegerera G.M., Sabour S., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi M., Sadeghi E., Safari Y., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi S.M., Salahshoor M.R., Salem M.R.R., Salem H., Salomon J., Samadi Kafil H., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Santric-Milicevic M.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sarveazad A., Sathian B., Sathish T., Sattin D., Savic M., Sawyer S.M., Saxena D., Sbarra A.N., Schaeffer L.E., Schiavolin S., Schmidt M.I., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sha F., Shahabi S., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Shannawaz M., Sharafi K., Sharara F., Sharifi H., Shaw D.H., Sheikh A., Sheikhtaheri A., Shibuya K., Shiferaw W.S., Shigematsu M., Shin J.I., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shivakumar K.M., Shrime M.G., Shuval K., Siabani S., Sierpinski R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Simonetti B., Simpson K.E., Singh J.A., Singh P., Sinha D.N., Skryabin V.Y., Smith E.U.R., Soheili A., Soltani S., Soofi M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sorrie M.B., Soyiri I.N., Spurlock E.E., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stanaway J.D., Steel N., Shetty B.S.K., Stein C., Stokes M.A., Sufiyan M.B., Suleria H.A.R., Sultan I., Szumowski L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S.K., Taddele B.W., Tadesse D.B., Taherkhani A., Tamiru A.T., Tanser F.C., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Teagle W.L., Tediosi F., Tefera Y.G.G., Tela F.G., Tessema Z.T., Thakur B., Titova M.V., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tovani-Palone M.R.R., Tran B.X., Travillian R., Troeger C.E., Tudor Car L., Uddin R., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uthman O.A., Vacante M., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Vasseghian Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vongpradith A., Vos T., Waheed Y., Walters M.K., Wamai R.G., Wang H., Wang Y.-P., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Wilner L.B., Woldu G., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu A.-M., Wulf Hanson S., Xie Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamagishi K., Yano Y., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yearwood J.A., Yeshitila Y.G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefi Z., Yousefinezhadi T., Yusefzadeh H., Zadey S., Zahirian Moghadam T., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zandian H., Zastrozhin M.S., Zewdie K.A., Zhang Y., Zhao X.-J.G., Zhao Y., Zheng P., Zhu C., Ziapour A., Zlavog B.S., Zodpey S., Murray C.J.L., Lozano R., Fullman N., Mumford J.E., Knight M., Barthelemy C.M., Abbafati C., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdollahi M., Abedi A., Abolhassani H., Abosetugn A.E., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu Haimed A.K., Abushouk A.I., Adabi M., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adelson J., Adetokunboh O.O., Adham D., Advani S.M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Aghamir S.M.K., Agrawal A., Ahmad T., Akinyemi R.O., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Albertson S.B., Alemu Y.M., Alhassan R.K., Ali M., Ali S., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Alla F., Almadi M.A.H., Almasi A., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almasri N.A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Almulhim A.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Alvis-Zakzuk N.J., Amini S., Amini-Rarani M., Amiri F., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari F., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Antonio C.A.T., Antony C.M., Antriyandarti E., Anvari D., Anwer R., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Aravkin A.Y., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Asaad M., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Asadi-Pooya A.A., Athari S.S., Atout M.M.W., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayano G., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Aynalem G.L., Ayza M.A., Azari S., Azzopardi P.S., B D.B., Babaee E., Badiye A.D., Bahrami M.A., Baig A.A., Bakhshaei M.H., Bakhtiari A., Bakkannavar S.M., Balachandran A., Banach M., Banerjee S.K., Banik P.C., Bante A.B., Bante S.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Bassat Q., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bekuma T.T.T., Bell M.L., Bensenor I.M., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj P., Bhat A.G., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Biondi A., Birihane B.M., Bockarie M.J., Bohlouli S., Bojia H.A., Bolla S.R.R., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Braithwaite D., Briggs A.M., Briko N.I., Burugina Nagaraja S., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Caetano dos Santos F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L.A., Cardenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castelpietra G., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cederroth C.R., Cerin E., Chandan J.S., Chang A.Y., Charan J., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chin K.L., Cho D.Y., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Chung M.T., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Compton K., Cortesi P.A., Costa V.M., Cousin E., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona L., Dandona R., Darega Gela J., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Dash A.P., Davey G., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davletov K., De Neve J.-W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Desai R., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Dias da Silva D., Diaz D., Dippenaar I.N., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Edvardsson D., El Sayed I., El Tantawi M., Elgendy I.Y., Elyazar I.R., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esteghamati A., Ezekannagha O., Farag T., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Farioli A., Faris P.S., Faro A., Fazlzadeh M., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fisher J.L., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fomenkov A.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fu W., Fukumoto T., Furtado J.M., Gad M.M., Gaidhane A.M., Gakidou E., Galles N.C., Gallus S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremeskel L.G., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghafourifard M., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginindza T.G., Gitimoghaddam M., Giussani G., Glagn M., Gnedovskaya E.V., Godinho M.A., Goharinezhad S., Gopalani S.V., Goudarzian A.H., Goulart B.N.G., Gubari M.I.M., Guimaraes R.A., Guled R.A., Gultie T., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hafiz A., Haile T.G., Hamadeh R.R., Hameed S., Hamidi S., Han C., Han H., Handiso D.W., Hanif A., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan M.M., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hassan A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Havmoeller R.J., Hay S.I., Hayat K., Heidari G., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Hendrie D., Herteliu C., Hird T.R., Ho H.C., Hole M.K., Holla R., Hoogar P., Hopf K.P., Horita N., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Hsieh V.C.-R., Hu G., Huda T.M., Humayun A., Hwang B.-F., Iavicoli I., Ibitoye S.E., Ikeda N., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam M.M., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Iso H., Iwu C.J., Jaafari J., Jadidi-Niaragh F., Jafarinia M., Jahagirdar D., Jahani M.A., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M., Janjani H., Javaheri T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jenabi E., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Jia P., John-Akinola Y.O., Jonas J.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A.M., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami Matin B., Karanikolos M., Karimi S.M., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kayode G.A., Keiyoro P.N., Khader Y.S., Khammarnia M., Khan M., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Khayamzadeh M., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Kneib C.J., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kohler S., Kopec J.A., Korotkova A.V., Korshunov V.A., Kosen S., Kotlo A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kugbey N., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Kyu H.H., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lau K.M.-M., Lauriola P., Lazarus J.V., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Lee S.W.H., Leever A.T., LeGrand K.E., Leigh J., Leonardi M., Li S., Lim S.S., Lim L.-L., Liu X., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lopukhov P.D., Lotufo P.A., Lu A., Ma J., Madadin M., Mahasha P.W., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Malagon-Rojas J.N., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mansouri B., Mansournia M.A., Martini S., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Massenburg B.B., Mastrogiacomo C.I., Mathur M.R., McAlinden C., McKee M., Medina-Solis C.E., Meharie B.G., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrabi Nasab E., Mehri F., Mehrotra R., Mekonnen T., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I.M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad Y., Mohammad D.K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed S., Mohammed J.A., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Mondello S., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Mosser J.F., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Naghshtabrizi B., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Ngari K.N., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen D.N., Nguyen H.L.T., Nnaji C.A., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J., Nowak C., Nunez-Samudio V., Otoiu A., Ogbo F.A., Oghenetega O.B., Oh I.-H., Okunga E.W., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Oluwasanu M.M., Omar Bali A., Omer M.O., Ong K.L., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V.V., Ortiz A., Ostojic S.M., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Overland S., Owolabi M.O., Padubidri J.R., Pakhale S., Palladino R., 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Abstract

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Method(s): Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (>=65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UH

Published
2020

32. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Author

Hird T.R., Shannawaz M., Sharma R., Shin J., Shiri R., Sierpinski R., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva D.A.S., Simonetti B., Singh A., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skou S.T., Skryabin V.Y., Zastrozhin M.S., Soheili A., Sokhan A., Somefun O.D., Korotkova A.V., Soyiri I.N., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Sripada K., Stovner L.J., Stockfelt L., Sultan I., Swope C.B., Vaicekonyte R., Sykes B.L., Szumowski L., Tabb K.M., Tabuchi T., Taddele B.W., Tahir Z., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Taveira N., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Varughese S., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tsatsakis A., Vardavas C., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Undurraga E.A., Upadhyay E., Vasankari T.J., Vasconcelos A.N., Veisani Y., Vidale S., Waheed Y., Wei J., Wang F., Zhao X.G., Wang Y., Yu C., Zhang Z., Wang H., Weiss J., Wiangkham T., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wu A., Xie Y., Xu G., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S., Yilgwan C.S., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Younker T.P., Yu Y., Zaidi S., Zhang J., Zhang Y., Zheleva B., Zhu C., Abbafati C., Machado D.B., Cislaghi B., Salman O.M., Karanikolos M., McKee M., Abbas K.M., Brady O.J., Larson H.J., Trias-Llimos S., Cummins S., Langan S.M., Sartorius B., Hafiz A., Jenabi E., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Borzouei S., Azarian G., Khazaei S., Abbasi M., Asghari B., Masoumi S., Komaki H., Taherkhani A., Adabi M., Abbasifard M., Bazmandegan G., Kamiab Z., Vakilian A., Anjomshoa M., Mokari A., Sabour S., Shahbaz M., Saeedi R., Ahmadieh H., Yousefinezhadi T., Haj-Mirzaian A., Nikbakhsh R., Safi S., Asgari S., Irvani S.N., Jahanmehr N., Ramezanzadeh K., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Khayamzadeh M., Abbastabar H., Shirkoohi R., Fazlzadeh M., Janjani H., Hosseini M., Mansournia M., Tohidinik H., Bakhtiari A., Fazaeli A., Mousavi S., Hasanzadeh A., Nabavizadeh B., Malekzadeh R., Hashemian M., Pourshams A., Salimzadeh H., Sepanlou S.G., Afarideh M., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Ghajar A., Heidari B., Rezaei N., Mohamadi E., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahim F., Eskandarieh S., Sahraian M., Mohebi F., Aminorroaya A., Ebrahimi H., Farzadfar F., Mohajer B., Pishgar F., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Shabani M., Zarafshan H., Abolhassani H., Hafezi-Nejad N., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Abdollahi M., Farahmand M., Salamati P., Mehrabi Nasab E., Tajdini M., Aghamir S., Mirzaei R., Dibaji Forooshani Z., Khater M.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abualhasan A., El-Jaafary S.I., Hassan A., Elsharkawy A., Khater A.M., Elhabashy H.R., Salem M.R.R., Salem H., Sadeghi M., Jafarinia M., Amini-Rarani M., Mohammadifard N., Sarrafzadegan N., Abdollahpour I., Sarveazad A., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Yoosefi Lebni J., Manafi N., Pazoki Toroudi H., Dorostkar F., Alipour V., Sheikhtaheri A., Arabloo J., Azari S., Ghashghaee A., Rezapour A., Naserbakht M., Kabir A., Mehri F., Yousefifard M., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Babaee E., Eshrati B., Goharinezhad S., Moradi M., Abedi P., Rashedi V., Kumar V., Elgendy I.Y., Basu S., Park J., Pereira A., Norheim O.F., Eagan A.W., Cahill L.E., Sheikh A., Abushouk A.I., Thakur B., Barnighausen T.W., Shrime 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Ashbaugh C., Assmus M., Azhar G., Balassyano S., Bannick M.S., Barthelemy C.M., Bender R.G., Bennitt F.B., Bertolacci G.J., Biehl M.H., Bisignano C., Boon-Dooley A.S., Briant P.S., Bryazka D., Bumgarner B.R., Callender C.S., Cao J., Castle C.D., Castro E., Causey K., Cercy K.M., Chalek J., Cohen A.J., Comfort H., Compton K., Croneberger A.J., Cruz J.A., Cunningham M., Dangel W.J., Dean F.E., DeCleene N.K., Deen A., Degenhardt L., Dingels Z.V., Dippenaar I.N., Dirac M.A., Dolgert A.J., Emmons-Bell S., Estep K., Farag T., Feigin V.L., Feldman R., Ferrara G., Ferrari A.J., Fitzgerald R., Force L.M., Fox J.T., Frank T.D., Fu W., Fukutaki K., Fuller J.E., Fullman N., Galles N.C., Gardner W.M., Gershberg Hayoon A., Goren E., Gorman T.M., Gottlich H.C., Guo G., Haddock B., Hagins H., Haile L.M., Hamilton E.B., Han C., Han H., Harvey J.D., Henny K., Henrikson H.J., Henry N.J., Herbert M.E., Hsiao T., Huynh C.K., Iannucci V.C., Ippolito H., Irvine C.M.S., Jafari H., Jahagirdar D., James S.L., 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Arnlov J., Nowak C., Cederroth C.R., Ahmadi A., Mills E.J., Kurmi O.P., Olagunju A.T., Agarwal G., Sathish T., Aghaali M., Mohammadbeigi A., Agrawal A., Ahmad T., Ahmadi K., Maleki S., Naderi M., Salahshoor M.R., Pourmirza Kalhori R., Almasi A., Salimi Y., Siabani S., Ziapour A., Barzegar A., Khazaie H., Kianipour N., Amiri F., Salehi Zahabi S., Mirzaei M., Shamsi M., Najafi F., Jalali A., Ghadiri K., Heydarpour F., Fattahi N., Karami Matin B., Kazemi Karyani A., Pirsaheb M., Rajati F., Sadeghi E., Safari Y., Sharafi K., Soltani S., Vasseghian Y., Atafar Z., Jalilian F., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Saeidi S., Soofi M., Zangeneh A., Mansouri B., Ahmadi M., Khafaie M.A., Safiri S., Moghadaszadeh M., Asghari Jafarabadi M., Doshmangir L., Jadidi-Niaragh F., Ghafourifard M., Spotin A., Khodayari M., Samadi Kafil H., Kalankesh L.R., Ahmadpour E., Yousefi B., Ansari F., Hassankhani H., Karimi S., Haririan H., Mereta S., Ahmed M.B., Feyissa G.T., Ciobanu L.G., Aji B., Aynalem G.L., Gebresillassie B., Tefera Y.G., Akalu T.Y., Baraki A.G., Tesema G.A., Tessema Z.T., Tamiru A.T., Azene Z.N., Netsere H.B., Yano Y., Akinyemiju T., Wu C., Zadey S., Samad Z., Ji J.S., Doshi P.P., John O., Jha V., Maulik P.K., Pesudovs K., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Sachdev P.S., Akombi B., Godinho M.A., Ivers R.Q., Peden A.E., Biswas R., Boufous S., Akunna C.J., Alahdab F., Hammer M.S., van Donkelaar A., Al-Aly Z., Dellavalle R.P., Alam S., Martin R.V., Alam N., De Leo D., Tadakamadla S.K., Alam K., Alcalde-Rabanal J.E., Avila-Burgos L., Servan-Mori E., Denova-Gutierrez E., Rodriguez-Ramirez S., Morales L., Poznanska A., Wojtyniak B., Rivera J.A., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano Rincon J., Sanchez-Pimienta T.G., Mengesha M.B., Welay F.T., Alema N.M., Demsie D.G., Teame H., Teklehaimanot B.F., Alemu B.W., Gultie T., Bante A.B., Yeshitila Y.G., Geramo Y.C.D., Glagn M., Sorrie M.B., W/hawariat F.G., Amare A., Kasa A., Alemu Y., Mihretie K.M., Atnafu D.D., Demeke F.M., Melese A., Bante S.A., Dessie G.A., Mengesha E.W., Nigatu D., Almadi M.A.H., Alhabib K.F., Mohammad Y., Altirkawi K.A., Temsah M., Kugbey N., Ayanore M.A., Alhassan R.K., Ali M., Ali S., Alicandro G., Kalhor R., Alijanzadeh M., Alinia C., Yusefzadeh H., Didarloo A., Alizade H., Nikpoor A., Aljunid S.M., Alla F., Leal L.F., Almasi-Hashiani A., Moradzadeh R., Zamanian M., Nazari J., Amini S., Ghamari F., Almasri N.A., Khan M., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Bedi N., Alonso J., Ciber E.S.P., Al-Raddadi R.M., Zakzuk J., Alvis-Guzman N., Alvis-Zakzuk N.J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Malagon-Rojas J.N., Gezae K., Gesesew H.A., Muthupandian S., Berhe K., Amare B., Ayza M.A., Gebreslassie A.A.A., Bitew H., Zewdie K.A., Tela F.G.G., Gill T.K., Noubiap J., Lassi Z.S., Bhandari D., Amit A.L., Antonio C.T., Faraon E.A., Lopez J.F., Atre S.R., Ballew S.H., Matsushita K., Khoja A.T., Daneshpajouhnejad P., Ghadimi M., Shafaat O., Fanzo J., Amugsi D.A., Amul G.H., Koh D.S.Q., Venketasubramanian N., Anbesu E.W., Mohammed J.A., Wondmeneh T.G., Andrei C., 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Abstract

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Method(s): 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a B

Published
2020

34. Retaining knowledge: TAPS has been developed to ease the pain of information drain for organisations when employees leave

Author

Lim, S.S., Tans, K.H., and Platts, K.

Subjects
Knowledge management -- Usage, Production planning -- Management, Production planning -- Usage, Production planning -- Case studies, Adhesives and sealants industry -- Technology application, Adhesives and sealants industry -- Management, Adhesives and sealants industry -- Case studies, Company business management, Technology application, Knowledge management, Business, Business, international, Construction and materials industries
Published
2004

35. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Author

Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Burnett, R.T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahill, L.E. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Causey, K. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chang, K.-L. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chee, M.L. Cheng, C.-Y. Chew, A. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, O.R. Coresh, J. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cundiff, D.K. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Damasceno, A.A.M. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Darby, S.C. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Deshpande, A. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Deveber, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Diro, H.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebert, N. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fay, K.A. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrara, G. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Godwin, W.W. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gutiérrez-Torres, D.S. Haagsma, J.A. Habtewold, T.D. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Higazi, T.B. Hilawe, E.H. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Hu, H. Huang, J.J. Hussen, M.A. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, N. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jackson, M.D. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Kant, S. Kar, C. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B.K. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khazaei, M. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kromhout, H. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Larson, S.L. Latifi, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Linn, S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Machado, Í.E. Madotto, F. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Mekonnen, F.A. Melaku, Y.A. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Momeniha, F. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Mozaffarian, D. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Neal, B. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nichols, E. Nie, J. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nishi, N. Nixon, M.R. Nojomi, M. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Paz Ballesteros, W.C. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pischon, T. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Polkinghorne, K.R. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Rehm, C.D. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rivera, J.A. Roba, K.T. Rodríguez-Ramírez, S. Roever, L. Román, Y. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Rushton, L. Sabanayagam, C. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, D.D. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Sánchez-Pimienta, T.G. Sanders, T. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serre, M.L. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaddick, G. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shamah Levy, T. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharifi, H. Sharma, J. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shin, M.-J. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shupler, M.S. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Somayaji, R. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Starodubov, V.I. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stevanovic, G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Sturua, L. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, H.J. Thomas, M.L. Thomas, N. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. Tillmann, T. To, Q.G. Tobollik, M. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venkateswaran, V. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.H. Weldegebreal, F. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, J.J. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wong, T.Y. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, H. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators

Abstract

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2019

36. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Author

Frank, T.D. Carter, A. Jahagirdar, D. Biehl, M.H. Douwes-Schultz, D. Larson, S.L. Arora, M. Dwyer-Lindgren, L. Steuben, K.M. Abbastabar, H. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abyu, D.M. Adabi, M. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, K. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akal, C.G. Alahdab, F. Alam, N. Albertson, S.B. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alipour, V. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, S. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Anjomshoa, M. Antonio, C.A.T. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Asmelash, D. Asrat, A.A. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayanore, M.A. Azari, S. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Banach, M. Barac, A. Bärnighausen, T.W. Basu, S. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M.M. Berhane, A. Bhat, A.G. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, M. Bitew, H. Blinov, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Burugina Nagaraja, S.B.N. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Carvalho, F. Chattu, V.K. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Crider, R. Dahiru, T. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B.B. Demissie, D.B. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Des Jarlais, D. Dhungana, G.P. Diaz, D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Doan, L.P. Duber, H. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duko Adema, B. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elsharkawy, A. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Eyawo, O. Farzadfar, F. Fatima, B. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Folayan, M.O. Foroutan, M. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gayesa, R.T. Gebremedhin, K.B. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gebreyohannes, K.K. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Gesesew, H.A. Geta, B. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghashghaee, A. Ginindza, T.T.G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimarães, R.A. Haile, M.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamidi, S. Handanagic, S. Handiso, D.W. Hanfore, L.K. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Hoang, C.L. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hsairi, M. Ibitoye, S.E. Idrisov, B. Ikuta, K.S. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Iwu, C.J. Jacobsen, K.H. James, S.L. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. Kabir, A. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, B. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kayode, G.A. Kebede, M.M. Kefale, A.T. Kengne, A.P. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalid, N. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, J. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kochhar, S. Komaki, H. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kuate Defo, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuupiel, D. Lal, D.K. Lee, J.J.-H. Lenjebo, T.L. Leshargie, C.T. Macarayan, E.R.K. Maddison, E.R. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahasha, P.W. Majdan, M. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, N. Mapoma, C.C. Martins-Melo, F.R. Masaka, A. Mayenga, E.N.L. Mehta, V. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mena, A.T. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miller, T.R. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Mohammad Darwesh, A. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Moodley, Y. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moschos, M.M. Mossie, T.B. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Muluneh, A.G. Muriithi, M.K. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nagarajan, A.J. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nazari, J. Ndwandwe, D.E. Nguyen, C.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, S.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Obsa, M.S. Odame, E.A. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olum, S. Oppong Asante, K. Oren, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Mahesh, P.A. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Patel, S.K. Paulos, K. Pepito, V.C.F. Peprah, E.K. Piroozi, B. Pourshams, A. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, S.U. Ranabhat, C.L. Rawaf, S. Reis, C. Renjith, V. Reta, M.A. Rezai, M.S. Rios González, C.M. Merdassa Roro, E.E.M. Rostami, A. Rubino, S. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, S. Sagar, R. Sahraian, M.A. Salem, M.R.R. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sartorius, B. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schutte, A.E. Sepanlou, S.G. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shallo, S.A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharifi, H. Shibuya, K. Shin, J.I. Shirkoohi, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, M.M.M. Sisay, M. Sisay, S. Smith, A.E. Sokhan, A. Somayaji, R. Soshnikov, S. Stein, D.J. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sykes, B.L. Tadesse, B.T. Tadesse, D.B. Tamirat, K.S. Taveira, N. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Temesgen, H.D. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topp, S.M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Ullah, I. Unnikrishnan, B. Uthman, O.A. Veisani, Y. Vladimirov, S.K. Wada, F.W. Waheed, Y. Weldegwergs, K.G. Weldesamuel, G.T.T. Westerman, R. Wijeratne, T. Wolde, H.F. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmagegn, B.Y. Yeshanew, A.G. Yilma, M.T. Yimer, E.M. Yonemoto, N. Yotebieng, M. Youm, Y. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zarghi, A. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Naghavi, M. Vollset, S.E. Wang, H. Lim, S.S. Kyu, H.H. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 HIV collaborators

Abstract

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).

Published
2019

37. Young people, smartphones, and invisible illiteracies

Author

Lim, S.S., Loh, S.M., Polson, E., Clark, L.S., Gajjala, R., Polson, E., Clark, L.S., and Gajjala, R.

Subjects
Inequality, cohesion and modernization, Ongelijkheid, cohesie en modernisering
Abstract

Item does not contain fulltext There has been considerable euphoria surrounding smartphones and their ability to make mobile internet access a reality for previously disconnected communities, offering them exciting possibilities in terms of communication, education, health and consumer services. However, is this optimism warranted or is there a chasm between the potentiality inherent in smartphones and the actual ways in which they are deployed by individual adopters? In this research on underprivileged youths in Singapore, a country with affordable and widespread internet access, we find growing evidence of young people who are ostensibly connected to the internet, but whose online repertoire is severely limited. Eschewing laptops and computers in favor of smartphones, these young people's internet use is largely confined to communication apps such as WhatsApp, Snapchat and Instagram, and entertainment apps such as YouTube, Dubsmash and Musical.ly, with minimal exploration of the World Wide Web’s rich offerings. While statistical measures would classify these youths as internet users, their app-centric navigation of the online space results in a narrow use of the internet that does not fully optimize the medium’s affordances for learning, participating, creating and "produsing". To reverse this trend of "invisible illiteracies", media literacy education in mobile-only or mobile-centric media environments needs to be urgently refined to better prepare young people for the full complement of online opportunities.

Published
2019
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38. A Decade of Failures. Predictive Factors for All-Cause Mortality at Admisison, 1 and 3 Years After Hospitalization for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (ADHF)

Author

Koh, H.B., primary, Lim, S.S., additional, Jaafar, J., additional, Sulong, M.A., additional, Sabian, I.S., additional, Jaafar, N., additional, Krishnan, H., additional, Aziz, N.I., additional, Tan, K.L., additional, Ong, S.H., additional, Cheh, J., additional, Abdul Rahim, A.A., additional, Teoh, C.K., additional, Chew, D.S.P., additional, and Mohd Ghazi, A., additional

Published
2019
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40. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Author

Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer and Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer

Abstract

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes du

Published
2019

41. Young people, smartphones, and invisible illiteracies

Author

Polson, E., Clark, L.S., Gajjala, R., Lim, S.S., Loh, S.M., Polson, E., Clark, L.S., Gajjala, R., Lim, S.S., and Loh, S.M.

Abstract

Item does not contain fulltext, There has been considerable euphoria surrounding smartphones and their ability to make mobile internet access a reality for previously disconnected communities, offering them exciting possibilities in terms of communication, education, health and consumer services. However, is this optimism warranted or is there a chasm between the potentiality inherent in smartphones and the actual ways in which they are deployed by individual adopters? In this research on underprivileged youths in Singapore, a country with affordable and widespread internet access, we find growing evidence of young people who are ostensibly connected to the internet, but whose online repertoire is severely limited. Eschewing laptops and computers in favor of smartphones, these young people's internet use is largely confined to communication apps such as WhatsApp, Snapchat and Instagram, and entertainment apps such as YouTube, Dubsmash and Musical.ly, with minimal exploration of the World Wide Web’s rich offerings. While statistical measures would classify these youths as internet users, their app-centric navigation of the online space results in a narrow use of the internet that does not fully optimize the medium’s affordances for learning, participating, creating and "produsing". To reverse this trend of "invisible illiteracies", media literacy education in mobile-only or mobile-centric media environments needs to be urgently refined to better prepare young people for the full complement of online opportunities.

Published
2019

42. Metabolic syndrome in polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression.

Author

Cooray S.D., Bahri Khomami M., Joham A.E., Misso M.L., Moran L.J., Teede H.J., Ranasinha S., Harrison C.L., Norman R.J., Lim S.S., Kakoly N.S., Tan J.W.J., Fitzgerald G., Cooray S.D., Bahri Khomami M., Joham A.E., Misso M.L., Moran L.J., Teede H.J., Ranasinha S., Harrison C.L., Norman R.J., Lim S.S., Kakoly N.S., Tan J.W.J., and Fitzgerald G.

Abstract

Introduction: Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have increased risk of metabolic syndrome. The relative contribution of clinical, demographic or biochemical factors to metabolic syndrome in PCOS is not known. A literature search was conducted in MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and clinical trial registries. Of 4530 studies reviewed, 59 were included in the systematic review and 27 in the meta-analysis and meta-regression. In good and fair quality studies, women with PCOS had an overall increased prevalence of metabolic syndrome (odds ratio, OR 3.35, 95% confidence interval, CI 2.44, 4.59). Increased prevalence of metabolic syndrome occurred in overweight or obese women with PCOS (OR 1.88, 95% 1.16, 3.04) but not in lean women (OR 1.45, 95% CI 0.35, 6.12). In meta-regression analyses, the markers of metabolic syndrome diagnostic criteria (waist circumference, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, blood pressure), BMI, glucose tolerance (2-hr oral glucose tolerance test) and surrogate markers of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) but not markers of reproductive dysfunction (sex hormone binding globulin, testosterone, PCOS phenotypes) contributed significantly to the heterogeneity in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Women with PCOS have increased risk of metabolic syndrome which was associated with obesity and metabolic features but not with indices of hyperandrogenism.Copyright © 2018 World Obesity Federation

Published
2019

43. Lifestyle changes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

Author

Moran L.J., Lim S.S., Hutchison S.K., Van Ryswyk E., Norman R.J., Teede H.J., Moran L.J., Lim S.S., Hutchison S.K., Van Ryswyk E., Norman R.J., and Teede H.J.

Abstract

Background Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects 8% to 13% of reproductive-aged women and is associated with reproductive, metabolic and psychological dysfunction. Obesity worsens the presentation of PCOS and weightmanagement (weight loss,maintenance or prevention of excess weight gain) is proposed as an initial treatment strategy, best achieved through lifestyle changes incorporating diet, exercise and behavioural interventions. Objectives To assess the effectiveness of lifestyle treatment in improving reproductive, anthropometric (weight and body composition), metabolic and quality of life factors in PCOS. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL and AMED (date of last search March 2018). We also searched controlled trials registries, conference abstracts, relevant journals, reference lists of relevant papers and reviews, and grey literature databases, with no language restrictions applied. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing lifestyle treatment (diet, exercise, behavioural or combined treatments) to minimal or no treatment in women with PCOS. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently selected trials, assessed evidence quality and risk of bias, and extracted data. Our primary outcomes were live birth, miscarriage and pregnancy.We used inverse variance and fixed-effect models in the meta-analyses.We reported dichotomous outcomes as an odds ratio and continuous outcomes as a mean difference (MD) or standardised mean difference (SMD).Copyright © 2019 The Cochrane Collaboration. Published by JohnWiley and Sons, Ltd.

Published
2019

44. Disordered eating behaviours and eating disorders in women in Australia with and without polycystic ovary syndrome: A cross-sectional study.

Author

Moran L.J., Jeanes Y.M., Joham A.E., Kulkarni J., Couch L.M., Lim S.S., Pirotta S., Barillaro M., Brennan L., Grassi A., Moran L.J., Jeanes Y.M., Joham A.E., Kulkarni J., Couch L.M., Lim S.S., Pirotta S., Barillaro M., Brennan L., and Grassi A.

Abstract

Psychological co-morbidities common in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) may contribute to disordered eating and subsequent weight gain. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the prevalence of disordered eating and a range of eating disorders and demographic risk factors associated with these behaviours within an Australian group of women with and without PCOS. Data from 899 women with (n = 501) and without (n = 398) PCOS were analysed as possibly indicative of disordered eating or eating disorders using the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q) and The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fifth Edition (DSM-5) criteria. Disordered eating (p = 0.012) but not eating disorders (p = 0.076) were more prevalent in women with PCOS compared to controls. Increased body mass index (BMI) [Odds Ratio (OR): 1.03; 95%; Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01, 1.05, p = 0.012] and older age [OR: 1.05; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.08, p = 0.002] but not PCOS diagnosis [OR: 1.43; 95%CI: 0.96, 2.13 p = 0.078] increased the odds of disordered eating. Increased BMI [OR: 1.04; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.06, p < 0.001] and younger age [OR:-0.95; 95%CI: 0.93-0.95, p < 0.001] but not PCOS diagnosis [OR: 1.38; 95%CI: 0.97, 1.95, p = 0.076] increased the odds of an eating disorder. Clinicians are recommended to screen all women with PCOS for possible disordered eating behaviours, with particular attention to women with elevated BMI.Copyright © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Published
2019

45. The global burden of falls: Global, regional and national estimates of morbidity and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, S.L. (Spencer L.), Lucchesi, L.R. (Lydia R.), Bisignano, C. (Catherine), Castle, C.D. (Chris D.), Dingels, Z.V. (Zachary V.), Fox, J.T. (Jack T), Hamilton, E.B. (Erin B.), Henry, N.J. (Nathaniel J.), Krohn, K.J. (Kris J.), Liu, Z. (Zichen), Mccracken, D. (Darrah), Nixon, M.R. (Molly R.), Roberts, N.L.S. (Nicholas L. S.), Sylte, D.O. (Dillon O.), Adsuar, J.C. (José C), Arora, A. (Amit), Briggs, A.M. (Andrew M.), Collado-Mateo, D. (Daniel), Cooper, C. (Charles), Dandona, L. (Lalit), Dandona, R. (Rakhi), Ellingsen, C.L. (Christian Lycke), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Gill, T.K. (Tiffany K.), Haagsma, J.A. (Juanita), Hendrie, D. (Delia), Jürisson, M. (Mikk), Kumar, G.A. (G Anil), Lopez, A.D. (Alan D), Miazgowski, T. (T.), Miller, T.R. (Ted R), Mini, G.K. (G. K.), Mirrakhimov, E.M. (Erkin M.), Mohamadi, E. (Efat), Olivares, P.R. (Pedro), Rahim, F. (Fakher), Riera, L.S. (Lidia Sanchez), Villafaina, S. (Santos), Yano, Y. (Yuichiro), Hay, S.I. (Simon), Lim, S.S. (Stephen), Mokdad, A.H. (Ali H.), Naghavi, M. (Morteza), Murray, C.J.L. (Christopher), James, S.L. (Spencer L.), Lucchesi, L.R. (Lydia R.), Bisignano, C. (Catherine), Castle, C.D. (Chris D.), Dingels, Z.V. (Zachary V.), Fox, J.T. (Jack T), Hamilton, E.B. (Erin B.), Henry, N.J. (Nathaniel J.), Krohn, K.J. (Kris J.), Liu, Z. (Zichen), Mccracken, D. (Darrah), Nixon, M.R. (Molly R.), Roberts, N.L.S. (Nicholas L. S.), Sylte, D.O. (Dillon O.), Adsuar, J.C. (José C), Arora, A. (Amit), Briggs, A.M. (Andrew M.), Collado-Mateo, D. (Daniel), Cooper, C. (Charles), Dandona, L. (Lalit), Dandona, R. (Rakhi), Ellingsen, C.L. (Christian Lycke), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Gill, T.K. (Tiffany K.), Haagsma, J.A. (Juanita), Hendrie, D. (Delia), Jürisson, M. (Mikk), Kumar, G.A. (G Anil), Lopez, A.D. (Alan D), Miazgowski, T. (T.), Miller, T.R. (Ted R), Mini, G.K. (G. K.), Mirrakhimov, E.M. (Erkin M.), Mohamadi, E. (Efat), Olivares, P.R. (Pedro), Rahim, F. (Fakher), Riera, L.S. (Lidia Sanchez), Villafaina, S. (Santos), Yano, Y. (Yuichiro), Hay, S.I. (Simon), Lim, S.S. (Stephen), Mokdad, A.H. (Ali H.), Naghavi, M. (Morteza), and Murray, C.J.L. (Christopher)

Abstract

Background: Falls can lead to severe health loss including death. Past research has shown that falls are an important cause of death and disability worldwide. The Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) provides a comprehensive assessment of morbidity and mortality from falls. Methods: Estimates for mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were produced for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 for all

Published
2019
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46. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

Author

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators Roth, G.A. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Aremu, O. Arnlov, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Bacha, U. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Banach, M. Banerjee, K. Bannick, M.S. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Barnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bassat, Q. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bejot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Blacker, B.F. Basara, B.B. Borschmann, R. Bosetti, C. Bozorgmehr, K. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cardenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castle, C.D. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Cowie, B.C. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De La Hoz, F.P. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Doshi, P.P. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Ellingsen, C.L. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Furst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Gibney, K.B. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giroud, M. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gomez-Dantes, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutierrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Idrisov, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, N. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jenkins, K.J. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kazi, D.S. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimaki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lam, J.O. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Lonsdale, C. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. MacLachlan, J.H. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marczak, L. Marks, A. Marks, G.B. Martinez, G. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Marz, W. Marzan, M.B. Masci, J.R. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matzopoulos, R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velasquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. 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Abstract

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

Published
2018

47. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Dicker, D. Nguyen, G. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abdurahman, A.A. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.L.C.B. Ahmed, S. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Anlay, D.Z. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asadi-Lari, M. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atey, T.M.M. Athari, S.S. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Attia, E.F. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awuah, B. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatia, E. Bhatt, S. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Bleyer, A. Bora Basara, B. Bose, D. Bosetti, C. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Bragazzi, N.L. Brant, L.C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Burke, K.E. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Çavlin, A. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Champs, A.P. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chaturvedi, P. Chen, W. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Constantin, M.-M. Conti, S. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cucu, A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. Dayama, A. de Courten, B. De la Hoz, F.P. De leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Ding, E.L. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Dolan, K.A. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Drake, T.M. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. Elfaramawi, M. El-Khatib, Z. Ellingsen, C.L. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y.Y. Er, B. Ermakov, S.P. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Farag, T. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. E Sá Farinha, C.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Feizy, F. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Ford, J.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Galan, A. Gallus, S. Gambashidze, K. Gamkrelidze, A. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gebre, T. Gebre, A.K. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gelano, T.F. Gelaw, Y.A. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Gessner, B.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goli, S. Gomez, R.S. Gomez-Cabrera, M.C. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horino, M. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, S. Hostiuc, M. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Iburg, K.M. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Isehunwa, O.O. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, R. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayaraman, S. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jee, S.H. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katibeh, M. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemeini, H. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kereselidze, M. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D.D. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kleber, M.E. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kuipers, E.J. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kumsa, F.A. Kutz, M.J. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lan, Q. Langan, S.M. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lavados, P.M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Leta, S. Levi, M. Li, S. Li, Y. Li, X. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. 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Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Moges, N.A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohammed, M.A. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Mullany, E.C. Muller, K. Murhekar, M. Murphy, T.B. Murthy, G.V.S. Murthy, S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Opio, J.N. Oren, E. Ortiz, J.R. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patle, A. Patten, S.B. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Pearce, N. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perez, K.M. Perico, N. Pervaiz, A. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Pond, C.D. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. 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Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, V. Sinha, A.P. Sinha, D.N. Sitas, F. Skirbekk, V. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Srivastava, R.K. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Steel, N. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, L.A. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsilimparis, N. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Vidavalur, R. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.W.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wondemagegn, S.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yadav, R. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. York, H.W. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zachariah, G. Zadnik, V. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeeb, H. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, K. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lopez, A.D. Gakidou, E. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).

Published
2018

48. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Lozano, R. Fullman, N. Abate, D. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, N.D. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M. Abyu, G.Y. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aghayan, S.A. Agius, D. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Akalu, T.Y. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alam, T. Albujeer, A. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Alhabib, S. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Almasi, A. Al-Maskari, F. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amenu, K. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Asghar, R.J. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Quintanilla, B.P.A. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azarpazhooh, M.R. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banerjee, A. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Barthelemy, C.M. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Battista, R.J. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. 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Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Griswold, M.G. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guillemin, F. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Ha, G.H. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Bidgoli, H.H. Hagos, T.B. Haile, M.T. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, B. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Híjar, M. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, D.J. Hole, M.K. 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Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Lebedev, G. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, J.B. Lee, P.H. Leever, A.T. Leigh, J. Leinsalu, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, X. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lucchesi, L.R. Lyons, R.A. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Mangalam, S. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C.C. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Milne, G.J. Mini, G.K. Minnig, S.P. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Moazen, B. Moghadamnia, A.A. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, M.B.V. Mohan, V. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-da-Costa, J. Morisaki, N. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mountjoy-Venning, W.C. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Mullany, E.C. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Murthy, G.V.S. Murthy, S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nabhan, A.F. Nachega, J.B. Nagarajan, A.J. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naidoo, K. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nichols, E. Nigatu, S.G. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, M. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, K.E. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oommen, A.M. Opio, J.N. Oren, E. Oros, A. Ortega-Altamirano, D.D.V. Ortiz, A. Ortiz, J.R. Ortiz-Panozo, E. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pan, W.-H. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Papantoniou, N. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pervaiz, A. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pletcher, M. Pond, C.D. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Pyakurel, M. Qorbani, M. Quansah, R. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.S. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Rana, S.M. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Razo-García, C. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reis, C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. 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Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whisnant, J.L. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolde, H.F. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Xu, R. Yadollahpour, A. Jabbari, S.H.Y. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zegeye, D.T. Zegeye, E.A. Zeleke, A.J. Zendehdel, K. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lim, S.S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

49. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Murray, C.J.L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Kulikoff, X.R. Srinivasan, V. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdoli, N. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Abejie, A.N. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abreu, D.M.X. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Almasi, A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Arian, N. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Atey, T.M.M. Atique, S. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Biswas, T. Bizuneh, H. Bleyer, A. Basara, B.B. Bosetti, C. Boufous, S. Brady, O.J. Bragazzi, N.L. Brainin, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Brewer, J.D. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Burstein, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Çavlin, A. Cerin, E. Chalek, J. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christopher, D.J. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Collado-Mateo, D. Constantin, M.-M. Conti, S. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Cukelj, P. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dicker, D. Ding, E.L. Dinsa, G.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dolan, K.A. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Ermakov, S.P. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Farag, T. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. SáFarinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fay, K.A. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Feizy, F. Fenny, A.P. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Fürst, T. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Gakidou, E. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia, G.M. Garcia-Gordillo, M.Á. Gebre, A.K. Gebre, T. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gelano, T.F. Gelaw, Y.A. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Gething, P. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goli, S. Gomez, R.S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guo, J. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Hibstu, D.T. Hole, M.K. Rad, E.H. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseini Chavoshi, M.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Iburg, K.M. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irenso, A.A. Irvani, S.S.N. Isehunwa, O.O. Islam, S.M.S. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Jonas, J.B. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Kastor, A. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kereselidze, M. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaeipour, Z. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kilgore, P.E. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kivimäki, M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Bicer, B.K. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kumsa, F.A. Kutz, M.J. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Lansky, S. Lansingh, V.C. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lee, J.B. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Leta, S. Levi, M. Li, S. Li, X. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Mabika, C.M. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Madotto, F. Mahmood, T.A.E. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malik, M.A. Mamun, A.A. Manamo, W.A. Manda, A.-L. Mangalam, S. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Mason-Jones, A.J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehrzadi, S. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengesha, M.M. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mokdad, A.H. Mola, G.D. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Mori, R. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Murphy, T.B. Muller, K. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, P. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyandwi, A. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Ortiz, A. Osgood-Zimmerman, A. Ota, E. Otieno, B.A. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Park, E.-K. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Pedroso, M.M. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Pierce, M. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Polanczyk, G.V. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Quansah, R. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.S. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Ur Rahman, S. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Ray, S.E. Razo-García, C. Reiner, R.C. Reis, C. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Moghaddam, S.S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. 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Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Starodubov, V.I. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Strong, M. Subart, M.L. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabb, K.M. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thomson, A.J. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Toyoshima, H. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsegay, A. 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GBD 2017 Population Fertility Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

50. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Kyu, H.H. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Amiresmaili, M. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatt, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bobasa, E.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chattu, V.K. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cross, M. Crump, J.A. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Davitoiu, D.V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. De Steur, H. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Doan, L. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dorsey, E.R. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Echko, M.M. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. Ehrlich, J.R. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endalifer, M.L. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farzadfar, F. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guillemin, F. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Bidgoli, H.H. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Rad, E.H. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Huang, J.J. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Kar, C. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Keighobadi, M.M. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khazaei, M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Kotsakis, G.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Bicer, B.K. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Langan, S.M. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Looker, K.J. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantilla Herrera, A.M. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massano, J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montanez, J.C. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velásquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Park, J. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Pasdar, Y. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Polinder, S. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Ranjan, P. Rao, P.C. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezai, M.S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Sadat, N. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Nino, M.D. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokoohinia, Y. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Sliwa, K. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Filho, A.M.S. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Steiner, T.J. Stokes, M.A. Stovner, L.J. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Taylor, H.R. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Troeger, C.E. Tsadik, A.G. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Williams, H.C. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zar, H.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zipkin, B. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 DALYs HALE Collaborators

Abstract

Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2018

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