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Choosing a career pathway in medicine is a high stakes decision for both medical students and the field of medicine as a whole. While past research has examined how characteristics of the medical student or specialties influence this decision, we introduce temporal elements as novel variables influencing career selection decisions in medicine. Specifically, we investigate how timing and duration of residency options, based on a rotation schedule that medical students have limited control over, influence their career selection decisions. An archival study investigating 5 years of medical student rotation schedules (N = 115) reveals that clinical rotation options appearing earlier and more often in the schedule were more likely to be selected. Moreover, timing and duration of exposure interacted such that residency options appearing later in the schedules were more likely to be selected if they also appeared more often. Conditional logistic regressions using student fixed-effects to control for idiosyncratic medical student differences (i.e., gender, & debt, etc.), and residency fixed-effects to control for idiosyncratic residency differences (income, and lifestyle, etc.), revealed the rotation schedule had a significant impact on residency selection decisions even when controlling for factors typically influencing this decision. Medical students' career decisions are influenced by when and how long different choice options appear in their rotation schedule, especially when they have limited influence over this schedule. The results have implications for healthcare policy by highlighting a tool for adjusting physician workforce composition by broadening exposure to a greater array of career options.

BackgroundBiopsy remains the gold standard for determining fibrosis stage in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), but it is unavailable for most patients. We used data from the 11 US health systems in the FibrOtic Liver Disease Consortium to explore a combination of biochemical markers and electronic health record (EHR)-based diagnosis/procedure codes (DPCs) to identify the presence of cirrhosis in PBC patients.MethodsHistological fibrosis staging data were obtained from liver biopsies. Variables considered for the model included demographics (age, gender, race, ethnicity), total bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), Fibrosis 4 (FIB4) index, AST to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio, and >100 DPCs associated with cirrhosis/decompensated cirrhosis, categorized into ten clusters. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO), we derived and validated cutoffs for identifying cirrhosis.ResultsAmong 4328 PBC patients, 1350 (32%) had biopsy data; 121 (9%) were staged F4 (cirrhosis). DPC clusters (including codes related to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma diagnoses/procedures), Hispanic ethnicity, ALP, AST/ALT ratio, and total bilirubin were retained in the final model (AUROC=0.86 and 0.83 on learning and testing data, respectively); this model with two cutoffs divided patients into three categories (no cirrhosis, indeterminate, and cirrhosis) with specificities of 81.8% (for no cirrhosis) and 80.3% (for cirrhosis). A model excluding DPCs retained ALP, AST/ALT ratio, total bilirubin, Hispanic ethnicity, and gender (AUROC=0.81 and 0.78 on learning and testing data, respectively).ConclusionAn algorithm using laboratory results and DPCs can categorize a majority of PBC patients as cirrhotic or noncirrhotic with high accuracy (with a small remaining group of patients' cirrhosis status indeterminate). In the absence of biopsy data, this EHR-based model can be used to identify cirrhosis in cohorts of PBC patients for research and/or clinical follow-up.

Goals: To assess if curcumin improves markers of cholestasis among subjects with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Background: PSC is a chronic cholestatic liver disorder for which there is no established medical therapy. Preclinical data suggest curcumin may have a beneficial effect in PSC. Study: Subjects with PSC and a serum alkaline phosphatase (SAP) greater than 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (ULN) received curcumin 750 mg orally twice daily for 12 weeks in an open-label pilot study. The primary composite endpoint was proportion of subjects who had a reduction of SAP to less than 1.5 times ULN or a 40% reduction in SAP between baseline and week 12. Secondary endpoints included changes in serum aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, Mayo PSC risk score and self-reported health questionnaires. Results: Two-hundred and fifty-eight patients with PSC were screened and 15 subjects were enrolled and all completed 12 weeks of therapy. The most common reason for subject exclusion was SAP less than 1.5 times the ULN (n = 98). Curcumin did not result in a significant median (interquartile range) change in SAP times the ULN [3.43 (2.10-4.32) to 2.46 (1.89-4.41), p = .36], and only 20% (3/15) subjects achieved the primary endpoint. Similarly, there was no significant change in the secondary endpoints. There were no serious adverse events reported. Conclusion: While curcumin was well tolerated, it was not associated with significant improvements in cholestasis or symptoms. Moreover, this study also illustrates that a low SAP is common among those with PSC. Abbreviations PSC: Primary sclerosing cholangitis; IBD: inflammatory bowel disease; CCA: cholangiocarcinoma; SAP: serum alkaline phosphatase; ULN: upper limit of normal; UDCA: ursodeoxycholic acid; CRP: c-reactive protein; AST: aspartate aminotransferase; ALT: alanine aminotransferase; INR: international normalized ratio; FIS: fatigue impact scale; AE: adverse events; PREsTo: PSC risk estimate tool; IQR: interquartile range; ELF: enhanced liver fibrosis.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare cholestatic liver disease characterized by progressive fibroinflammatory destruction of the intra- and/or extrahepatic biliary ducts. While its features and disease course can be variable, most patients with PSC have concurrent inflammatory bowel disease and will eventually develop liver cirrhosis and end-stage liver disease, with liver transplantation representing the only potentially curative option. Importantly, PSC is associated with a significantly increased risk of malignancy compared to the general population, mainly cholangiocarcinoma, gallbladder carcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and colorectal cancer, with nearly 50% of deaths in patients with PSC being due to cancer. Therefore, robust surveillance strategies are needed, though uncertainty remains regarding how to best do so. In this review, we discuss the epidemiology, prevention, and surveillance of cancers in patients with PSC. Where evidence is limited, we present pragmatic approaches based on currently available data and expert opinion.

Dominant strictures (DSs) of the biliary tree occur in approximately 50% of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and may cause significant morbidity. Nevertheless, the definition and management of DSs lacks consensus. We aimed to better understand current perceptions and practices regarding PSC-associated DSs. We conducted an anonymous, 23-question, survey-based study wherein electronic surveys were distributed to 131 faculty in the Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at the three Mayo Clinic campuses (Rochester, Scottsdale, and Jacksonville) as well as the affiliated practice network. Responses were aggregated and compared, where applicable, to practice guidelines of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and European Association for the Study of the Liver. A total of 54 faculty (41.2%) completed the survey, of whom 24 (44.4%) were hepatologists, 21 (38.9%) gastroenterologists, and 9 (16.7%) advanced endoscopists. One of the major study findings was that there was heterogeneity among participants' definition, evaluation, management, and follow-up of DSs in PSC. The majority of participant responses were in accordance with societal practice guidelines, although considerable variation was noted. Conclusion: Despite the prevalence and morbidity of DSs in PSC, clinical perceptions and practices vary widely among hepatologists, gastroenterologists, and advanced endoscopists who manage these patients, even within a single health care system. Further studies are needed to address these variations, develop general and evidence-based consensus, and increase adherence to societal guidelines. (Hepatology Communications 2018;2:836-844).

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic, fibroinflammatory, progressive cholangiopathy. In a clinically significant proportion of patients, the disease course of PSC is punctuated by carcinogenesis, namely cholangiocarcinoma, gallbladder carcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or colorectal carcinoma. Indeed, malignancy is arguably the most consequential sequela and the cause of nearly 50% of deaths in patients with PSC. This statistic is multifactorial, relating partly to the premalignant nature of PSC, challenges in diagnosis due to obscuration of cancer by the inflammation and fibrosis inherent to PSC, and the unpredictability of which type of cancer will develop in PSC and when. Here, in the second of a 2-part series, we review cancer risk, prevention, and surveillance in patients with PSC. We also discuss potential cancer surveillance strategies in PSC and, where evidence is limited, make pragmatic recommendations based on current data and expert opinion.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a spectrum comprised of isolated steatosis, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis. The majority of NAFLD subjects do not have NASH and do not carry a significant risk for liver-related adverse outcomes (cirrhosis and mortality). Globally, the prevalence of NAFLD is approximately 25%. In Asia, a gradient of high to low prevalence rates is noted from urban to rural areas. Given the prevalence of NAFLD, the clinical and economic burden of NAFLD and NASH can be substantial. With increasing recognition of NASH as an important liver disease, the diagnosis of NASH still requires a liver biopsy that is suboptimal. Although liver biopsy is the most accurate modality to diagnose and stage the severity of NASH, this method suffers from being invasive, costly, associated with potential complications, and plagued with interobserver variability of individual pathological features. A number of noninvasive modalities to diagnose NASH and stage liver fibrosis are being developed. These modalities include predictive models (NAFLD fibrosis score) and serum biomarkers such as enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF). Other tests are based on radiological techniques, such as transient elastography (TE) or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), which are used to estimate liver stiffness as a potential surrogate of hepatic fibrosis. Although a dynamic field of research, most of these diagnostic modalities have area under the curve ranging between 0.76 and 0.90%, with MRE having the best predictive performance. In summary, developing safe and easily accessible noninvasive modalities to accurately diagnose and monitor NASH and associated fibrosis is of utmost importance in clinical practice and clinical research. These tests are not only important to risk stratify subjects at the greatest risk for progressive liver disease, but also to serve as appropriate surrogate endpoints for therapeutic clinical trials of NASH. (Hepatology 2018;68:349-360).

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its progressive form non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), are rapidly becoming among the top causes of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and indications for liver transplantation. Other than lifestyle modification through diet and exercise, there are currently no other approved treatments for NASH/NAFLD. Although weight loss can be effective, it is difficult to achieve and sustain. In contrast, bariatric surgery can improve metabolic conditions associated with NAFLD, and has been shown to improve liver histology. To have approved regimens for the treatment of NASH/NAFLD, several issues must be addressed. First, all stakeholders must agree on the most appropriate clinical trial endpoints for NASH. Currently, resolution of NASH (without worsening fibrosis) or reduction of fibrosis stage (without worsening NASH) are the accepted endpoints by the regulatory authorities. It is important to recognize the prognostic implication of histologic features of NASH. In this context, although histologic NASH has been associated with advanced fibrosis, it is not an independent predictor of long-term mortality. In contrast, there are significant data to suggest that fibrosis stage is the only robust and independent predictor of liver-related mortality. In addition to the primary endpoints, several important secondary endpoints, including noninvasive biomarkers, long-term outcomes, and patient-reported outcomes must be considered. In 2018, a few phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of NASH have been initiated. Additionally, a number of phase 2a and 2b clinical trials targeting different pathogenic pathways in NASH are in the pipeline of emerging therapies.ConclusionOver the next 5 years, some of these regimens are expected to provide potential new treatment options for patients with NASH/NAFLD. (Hepatology 2018;68:361-371).

Background & aimsPrimary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an orphan hepatobiliary disorder associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to estimate the risk of disease progression based on distinct clinical phenotypes in a large international cohort of patients with PSC.MethodsWe performed a retrospective outcome analysis of patients diagnosed with PSC from 1980 through 2010 at 37 centers in Europe, North America, and Australia. For each patient, we collected data on sex, clinician-reported age at and date of PSC and IBD diagnoses, phenotypes of IBD and PSC, and date and indication of IBD-related surgeries. The primary and secondary endpoints were liver transplantation or death (LTD) and hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to determine the effects of individual covariates on rates of clinical events, with time-to-event analysis ascertained through Kaplan-Meier estimates.ResultsOf the 7121 patients in the cohort, 2616 met the primary endpoint (median time to event of 14.5 years) and 721 developed hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy. The most common malignancy was cholangiocarcinoma (n = 594); patients of advanced age at diagnosis had an increased incidence compared with younger patients (incidence rate: 1.2 per 100 patient-years for patients younger than 20 years old, 6.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 21-30 years old, 9.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 31-40 years old, 14.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 41-50 years old, 15.2 per 100 patient-years for patients 51-60 years old, and 21.0 per 100 patient-years for patients older than 60 years). Of all patients with PSC studied, 65.5% were men, 89.8% had classical or large-duct disease, and 70.0% developed IBD at some point. Assessing the development of IBD as a time-dependent covariate, Crohn's disease and no IBD (both vs ulcerative colitis) were associated with a lower risk of LTD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; P < .001 and HR, 0.90; P = .03, respectively) and malignancy (HR, 0.68; P = .008 and HR, 0.77; P = .004, respectively). Small-duct PSC was associated with a lower risk of LTD or malignancy compared with classic PSC (HR, 0.30 and HR, 0.15, respectively; both P < .001). Female sex was also associated with a lower risk of LTD or malignancy (HR, 0.88; P = .002 and HR, 0.68; P < .001, respectively). In multivariable analyses assessing the primary endpoint, small-duct PSC characterized a low-risk phenotype in both sexes (adjusted HR for men, 0.23; P < .001 and adjusted HR for women, 0.48; P = .003). Conversely, patients with ulcerative colitis had an increased risk of liver disease progression compared with patients with Crohn's disease (HR, 1.56; P < .001) or no IBD (HR, 1.15; P = .002).ConclusionsIn an analysis of data from individual patients with PSC worldwide, we found significant variation in clinical course associated with age at diagnosis, sex, and ductal and IBD subtypes. The survival estimates provided might be used to estimate risk levels for patients with PSC and select patients for clinical trials.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by the immunological destruction of intralobular bile ducts and serum anti-mitochondrial antibodies (AMA). Based upon previous work of oral tolerance and autoimmunity, we hypothesized that feeding the mitochondrial autoantigens of PBC would alter the clinical course and the level of antimitochondrial antibodies. The bovine pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDC) was purified and 5 mg fed in gelatin capsules to 6 patients with early stage PBC for 6 months. Antimitochondrial antibodies and liver biochemistries were measured at every 3 months for 12 months. The clinical trial was completed for all patients except for 1 who showed deterioration of pre-existing skin rash during treatment, which disappeared within 2 weeks after treatment was discontinued. However, after 1 year, neither the titers of AMAs nor liver biochemistries were significantly changed by this treatment. This is the first trial to test the efficacy of oral tolerance induction in PBC. However, the data, which limited in scope, did not demonstrate efficacy and further highlights the difficulties in showing continuing evidence of tolerance induction in autoimmunity.