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We use house prices (HP) and house price indices (HPI) as a proxy to income distribution. Specifically, we analyze sale prices in the 1970-2010 window of over 116,000 single-family homes in Hamilton County, Ohio, including Cincinnati metro area of about 2.2 million people. We also analyze HPI, published by Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), for nearly 18,000 US ZIP codes that cover a period of over 40 years starting in 1980's. If HP can be viewed as a first derivative of income, HPI can be viewed as its second derivative. We use generalized beta (GB) family of functions to fit distributions of HP and HPI since GB naturally arises from the models of economic exchange described by stochastic differential equations. Our main finding is that HP and multi-year HPI exhibit a negative Dragon King (nDK) behavior, wherein power-law distribution tail gives way to an abrupt decay to a finite upper limit value, which is similar to our recent findings for realized volatility of S\&P500 index in the US stock market. This type of tail behavior is best fitted by a modified GB (mGB) distribution. Tails of single-year HPI appear to show more consistency with power-law behavior, which is better described by a GB Prime (GB2) distribution. We supplement full distribution fits by mGB and GB2 with direct linear fits (LF) of the tails. Our numerical procedure relies on evaluation of confidence intervals (CI) of the fits, as well as of p-values that give the likelihood that data come from the fitted distributions., Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables

We examine the internal structure of the $\Lambda(1670)$ through an analysis of lattice QCD simulations and experimental data within Hamiltonian effective field theory. Two scenarios are presented. The first describes the $\Lambda(1670)$ as a bare three-quark basis state, which mixes with the $\pi\Sigma$, $\bar{K}N$, $\eta\Lambda$ and $K\Xi$ meson-baryon channels. In the second scenario, the $\Lambda(1670)$ is dynamically generated from these isospin-0 coupled channels. The $K^-p$ scattering data and the pole structures of the $\Lambda(1405)$ and the $\Lambda(1670)$ can be simultaneously described well in both scenarios. However, a comparison of the finite-volume spectra to lattice QCD calculations reveals significant differences between these scenarios, with a clear preference for the first case. Thus the lattice QCD results play a crucial role in allowing us to distinguish between these two scenarios for the internal structure of the $\Lambda(1670)$., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table; accepted by Phys. Rev. D

We undertake a systematic study of historic market volatility spanning roughly five preceding decades. We focus specifically on the time series of realized volatility (RV) of the S&P500 index and its distribution function. As expected, the largest values of RV coincide with the largest economic upheavals of the period: Savings and Loan Crisis, Tech Bubble, Financial Crisis and Covid Pandemic. We address the question of whether these values belong to one of the three categories: Black Swans (BS), that is they lie on scale-free, power-law tails of the distribution; Dragon Kings (DK), defined as statistically significant upward deviations from BS; or Negative Dragons Kings (nDK), defined as statistically significant downward deviations from BS. In analyzing the tails of the distribution with RV > 40, we observe the appearance of "potential" DK which eventually terminate in an abrupt plunge to nDK. This phenomenon becomes more pronounced with the increase of the number of days over which the average RV is calculated -- here from daily, n=1, to "monthly," n=21. We fit the entire distribution with a modified Generalized Beta (mGB) distribution function, which terminates at a finite value of the variable but exhibits a long power-law stretch prior to that, as well as Generalized Beta Prime (GB2) distribution function, which has a power-law tail. We also fit the tails directly with a straight line on a log-log scale. In order to ascertain BS, DK or nDK behavior, all fits include their confidence intervals and p-values are evaluated for the data points to check if they can come from the respective distributions., Comment: 20 pages, 15 figues

Data scarcity and heterogeneity pose significant performance challenges for personalized federated learning, and these challenges are mainly reflected in overfitting and low precision in existing methods. To overcome these challenges, a multi-layer multi-fusion strategy framework is proposed in this paper, i.e., the server adopts the network layer parameters of each client upload model as the basic unit of fusion for information-sharing calculation. Then, a new fusion strategy combining personalized and generic is purposefully proposed, and the network layer number fusion threshold of each fusion strategy is designed according to the network layer function. Under this mechanism, the L2-Norm negative exponential similarity metric is employed to calculate the fusion weights of the corresponding feature extraction layer parameters for each client, thus improving the efficiency of heterogeneous data personalized collaboration. Meanwhile, the federated global optimal model approximation fusion strategy is adopted in the network full-connect layer, and this generic fusion strategy alleviates the overfitting introduced by forceful personalized. Finally, the experimental results show that the proposed method is superior to the state-of-the-art methods., Comment: 9 pages,3 figures

We approach the Generalized Beta (GB) family of distributions using a mean-reverting stochastic differential equation (SDE) for a power of the variable, whose steady-state (stationary) probability density function (PDF) is a modified GB (mGB) distribution. The SDE approach allows for a lucid explanation of Generalized Beta Prime (GB2) and Generalized Beta (GB1) limits of GB distribution and, further down, of Generalized Inverse Gamma (GIGa) and Generalized Gamma (GGa) limits, as well as describe the transition between the latter two. We provide an alternative form to the "traditional" GB PDF to underscore that a great deal of usefulness of GB distribution lies in its allowing a long-range power-law behavior to be ultimately terminated at a finite value. We derive the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the "traditional" GB, which belongs to the family generated by the regularized beta function and is crucial for analysis of the tails of the distribution. We analyze fifty years of historical data on realized market volatility, specifically for S\&P500, as a case study of the use of GB/mGB distributions and show that its behavior is consistent with that of negative Dragon Kings., Comment: 21 pages, 11 figyes, 2 tables

We use Generalized Beta Prime distribution, also known as GB2, for fitting response time distributions. This distribution, characterized by one scale and three shape parameters, is incredibly flexible in that it can mimic behavior of many other distributions. GB2 exhibits power-law behavior at both front and tail ends and is a steady-state distribution of a simple stochastic differential equation. We apply GB2 in contrast studies between two distinct groups -- in this case children with dyslexia and a control group -- and show that it provides superior fitting. We compare aggregate response time distributions of the two groups for scale and shape differences (including several scale-independent measures of variability, such as Hoover index), which may in turn reflect on cognitive dynamics differences. In this approach, response time distribution of an individual can be considered as a random variate of that individual's group distribution., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figure, 5 tables

We study distributions of realized variance (squared realized volatility) and squared implied volatility, as represented by VIX and VXO indices. We find that Generalized Beta distribution provide the best fits. These fits are much more accurate for realized variance than for squared VIX and VXO -- possibly another indicator that the latter have deficiencies in predicting the former. We also show that there are noticeable differences between the distributions of the 1970-2017 realized variance and its 1990-2017 portion, for which VIX and VXO became available. This may be indicative of a feedback effect that implied volatility has on realized volatility. We also discuss the distribution of the difference between squared implied volatility and realized variance and show that, at the basic level, it is consistent with Pearson's correlations obtained from linear regression., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, 10 tables