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The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial predictability source on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale. Therefore, the models participating in the World Weather Research Programme and the World Climate Research Programme (WWRP/WCRP) S2S prediction project focus on accurately predicting and analyzing the MJO. This study provides a detailed description of the configuration within the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-CAS) S2S forecast system. We assess the accuracy of the IAP-CAS model's MJO forecast using traditional Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) analysis and cluster analysis. Then, we explain the reasons behind any bias observed in the MJO forecast. Comparing the 20-year hindcast with observations, we found that the IAP-CAS ensemble mean has a skill of 24 d. However, the ensemble spread still has potential for improvement. To examine the MJO structure in detail, we use cluster analysis to classify the MJO events during boreal winter into four types: fast-propagating, slow-propagating, standing, and jumping patterns of MJO. The model exhibits biases of overestimated amplitude and faster propagation speed in the propagating MJO events. Upon further analysis, it was found that the model forecasted a wetter background state. This leads to stronger forecasted convection and coupled waves, especially in the fast MJO events. The overestimation of the strength and length of MJO-coupled waves results in a faster MJO mode and quicker dissipation in the IAP-CAS model. These findings show that the IAP-CAS skillfully forecasts signals of MJO and its propagation, and they also provide valuable guidance for improving the current MJO forecast by developing the ensemble system and moisture forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial predictability source on a sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale. Therefore, the models participating in the WWRP/WCRP S2S prediction project focus on accurately predicting and analyzing the MJO. This study provided a detailed description of the configuration within the IAP-CAS S2S forecast system. We assessed the accuracy of the IAP-CAS model's MJO forecast using traditional RMM analysis and cluster analysis. Then, we explained the reasons behind any bias observed in the MJO forecast. Comparing the 20-year hindcast with observations, we found that the IAP-CAS ensemble mean has a skill of 24 days. However, there is still room for improvement in the ensemble spread. To examine the MJO structure in detail, we used cluster analysis to classify the MJO events during boreal winter into four types: fast-propagating, slow-propagating, standing, and jumping patterns of MJO. The model exhibits biases of overestimated amplitude and faster propagation speed in the propagating MJO events. Upon further analysis, it was found that the model forecasted a wetter background state. This leads to more intense forecasted convection and stronger coupled winds, especially in the fast MJO events. However, the horizontal moisture advection effect for eastward propagation is overestimated in IAP-CAS due to the wetter state and more substantial MJO circulations, which results in a faster MJO mode. These findings show that the IAP-CAS skilfully forecasts signals of MJO and its propagation, and they also provide valuable guidance for improving the current MJO forecast by developing the ensemble system and moisture forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines whether marriage, as a social construct and cultural norm, can affect firm‐level stock price crash risk. We find that firms managed by married CEOs are associated with lower future stock price crash risk, after controlling for a set of firm characteristics and CEO traits. We document that CEO marriage reduces crash risk by curbing bad news hoarding and formation activities. Moreover, the attenuating impact of CEO marriage on crash risk is more pronounced among firms with weaker corporate governance and those run by less prominent, higher‐delta and lower‐paid CEOs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a study on using short-maturity corporate debt for protecting shareholders' wealth and maintain the interests of creditors. Topics discussed include how short-term debt lower the risk of future stock price crashes; the influence of corporate governance in this regard; and information asymmetry, and risk-taking.