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Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.

Abstract Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) result from the interaction of the time variation of ground magnetic field during a geomagnetic disturbance with the Earth's deep electrical resistivity structure. In this study, we simulate induced GICs in a hypothetical representation of a low‐latitude power transmission network located mainly over the large Paleozoic Paraná basin (PB) in southern Brazil. Two intense geomagnetic storms in June and December 2015 are chosen and geoelectric fields are calculated by convolving a three‐dimensional (3‐D) Earth resistivity model with recorded geomagnetic variations. The dB/dt proxy often used to characterize GIC activity fails during the June storm mainly due to the relationship of the instantaneous geoelectric field to previous magnetic field values. Precise resistances of network components are unknown, so assumptions are made for calculating GIC flows from the derived geoelectric field. The largest GICs are modeled in regions of low conductance in the 3‐D resistivity model, concentrated in an isolated substation at the northern edge of the network and in a cluster of substations in its central part where the east‐west (E‐W) oriented transmission lines coincide with the orientation of the instantaneous geoelectric field. The maximum magnitude of the modeled GIC was obtained during the main phase of the June storm, modeled at a northern substation, while the lowest magnitudes were found over prominent crustal anomalies along the PB axis and bordering the continental margin. The simulation results will be used to prospect the optimal substations for installation of GIC monitoring equipment.

Community honours, such as those bestowed by professional scientific societies like the American Geophysical Union (AGU) are an important element of both individual career advancement and contributes to the historical record of scientific progress. The process by which honours are bestowed is not widely shared amongst the community. The purpose of this article is to share the recent experiences of several members of the AGU Space Physics and Aeronomy (SPA) Fellows committee. We outline the criteria for selection, the evaluation process, difficulties encountered by the committee, and steps taken to mitigate these difficulties. Of particular note is the impact of implicit bias in the award system. Steps could be taken by the awarding scientific societies to reduce the impact of these biases, but in the meantime individual award committees can employ some of the strategies we outline in this article. By sharing our experiences, we hope to improve the process of granting awards and honours for the scientists putting together award nominations, future committee members, and the scientific societies granting these awards.

Abstract We describe here an analysis of the H-component of the geomagnetic field recorded in several temporary stations operating simultaneously in the central–eastern region of Brazil during nighttime pulsation events in 1994 and the sudden commencement of the St. Patrick’s Day magnetic storm in 2015. A significant amplification in the amplitude of the geomagnetic variations is consistently observed in one of these stations. Magnetovariational analysis indicates that the amplification factor is period dependent with maximum amplitude around 100 s. Integrated magnetotelluric (MT) and geomagnetic depth soundings (GDS) have shown that this station is positioned just over a huge 1200-km-long crustal conductor (estimated bulk conductivity greater than 1 S/m). We propose that the anomalous signature of the geomagnetic field at this station is due to the high reflection coefficient of the incident electromagnetic wave at the interface with the very good conductor and by skin effects damping the electromagnetic wave in the conducting layers overlying the conductor. There are some indication from the GDS data that the conductor extends southward beneath the sediments of the Pantanal Basin. In this region is being planned the installation of a new geomagnetic observatory, but its preliminary data suggest anomalous geomagnetic variations. We understand that a detailed MT survey must be carried out around the chosen observatory site to evaluate the possible influence of induced currents on the local geomagnetic field. Graphical abstract Crustal conductivity anomaly in central South America