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The paper obtains the parameters in Monod's Growth model using a minimization of the sum of square errors with a given data set and obtains confidence intervals

Studying adverse effects of chemical pressure on aquatic ecosystems needs a comprehensive knowledge of bioaccumulation mechanisms of pollutants in biota to predict internal concentrations, especially for Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). However, the large variability of responses in measured POP concentrations requires explicit consideration of both individual variability and environmental influences. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory provides a rigorous and generic conceptual framework for tackling these questions in a relevant mechanistic way. In the present study, parameterisation and calibration of previous DEB models for Solea solea were revisited in order to accurately represent the full life cycle with an original emphasis on larval stage, metamorphosis, reproduction rules and sexual differences. We first improved calibration thanks to the use of the estimation procedure developed by the DEB network coupled with a broad compilation of data from literature. Then, we validated this set of parameter estimates on independent datasets of i) individual monitoring of larval growth in controlled food conditions from a novel experiment, and ii) juvenile and adult growth, and female fecundity, from a natural population. Finally, we combined the DEB model developed in the present paper with we used a simple toxicokinetic (TK) model from literature. This TK model was also combined to a previous DEB model and was used to reproduce the mean trajectories of a growth and contamination dataset. We applied the same TK model with our DEB model considering inter-individual variability in food availability. This application highlighted the need to accurately consider inter-individual variability in ingestion to correctly estimate growth and contamination variability. The present work is the first step in the development of a mechanistic TK model that will be used in a companion paper for investigations of juvenile sole sensitivity to warming, nursery quality and prey contamination, in highly fluctuating estuarine environments.

The amount of potentially toxic chemicals in a fish depends on various environmental factors, such as temperature and feeding ecology, which can be affected by Global Changes (GC). The main objective of the present work was to study the relative influence of temperature, food quality and food availability on the growth and contamination of juveniles of common sole (Solea solea), a marine flatfish species known to be a relevant indicator of the nursery quality. It focuses on two Persistent Organic Pollutants (CB153 and L-PFOS) of legacy and emerging concern, respectively. To achieve this, we used a toxicokinetic (TK) model in which toxicant flows are mechanistically predicted using a bioenergetic model based on the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory. This modelling framework was applied to juvenile sole from the Gironde estuary (SW France) and allows accounting for the influence of environmental conditions on fish biological processes involved in toxicant fluxes. To compare their respective influence on model predictions of age, length, and contamination at puberty, we included in a global sensitivity analysis: (1) environmental variability gathered from literature for this particular estuary and (2) TK parameters (i.e. assimilation efficiency AE and elimination rate (k) over dot(e)) variability and uncertainty gathered from literature about each contaminant but for different fish species and experimental conditions. Then, model predictions were confronted to fish contamination measurements from the Gironde Estuary with different combinations of TK parameter values from literature. Results highlighted a key role of diet composition on fish contamination and growth while water temperature only affected growth. It stressed the need to focus on GC impact on benthic communities and their consequences on juvenile fish diet for future work on GC scenarios. Furthermore, for both chemical, the range of variability of TK parameters from experiments led to underestimated fish contaminations. The best model fits were obtained using TK parameter values from model applications: from Mounier et al. for CB153 (Solea solea, experiment, AE= 0.8 and =0 d(-1)) and from de Vos et al. (2008) for PFOS (food chain of the Western Scheldt estuary, The Netherlands, AE = 0.8 and (k) over dot(e)=0.8 10(-2) d(-1)).

International audience; Alterations of species phenology in response to climate change are now unquestionable. Until now, most studies have reported precocious occurrence of life cycle events as a major phenological response. Desynchronizations of biotic interactions, in particular predator-prey relationships, are however assumed to strongly impact ecosystems' functioning, as formalized by the Match-Mismatch Hypothesis (MMH). Temporal synchronicity between juvenile fish and zooplankton in estuaries is therefore of essential interest since estuaries are major nursery grounds for many commercial fish species. The Gironde estuary (SW France) hassuffered significant alterations over the last three decades, including two Abrupt Ecosystem Shifts (AES), and three contrasted intershift periods. The main objective of this study was to depict modifications in fish and zooplankton phenology among inter-shift periods and discuss the potential effects of the resulting mismatches at a community scale. A flexible Bayesian method was used to estimate and compare yearly patterns of species abundance in the estuary among the three pre-defined periods. Results highlighted (1) an earlier peak of zooplankton production and entrance of fish species in the estuary and (2) a decrease inresidence time of both groups in the estuary. Such species-specific phenological changes led to changes in temporal overlap between juvenile fish and their zooplanktonic prey. This situation questions the efficiency and potentially the viability of nursery function of theGironde estuary, with potential implications for coastal marine fisheries of the Bay of Biscay.

International audience; For decades, global climate change has directly and indirectly affected the structure and function of ecosystems. Abrupt changes in biodiversity have been observed in response to linear or sudden modifications to the environment. These abrupt shifts can cause long-term reorganizations within ecosystems, with communities exhibiting new functional responses to environmental factors. Over the last 3 decades, the Gironde estuary in southwest France has experienced 2 abrupt shifts in both the physical and chemical environments and the pelagic community. Rather than describing these shifts and their origins, we focused on the 3 inter-shift periods, describing the structure of the fish community and its relationship with the environment during these periods. We described fish biodiversity using a limited set of descriptors, taking into account both species composition and relative species abundances. Inter-shift ecosystem states were defined based on the relationship between this description and the hydro-physico-chemical variables and climatic indices defining the main features of the environment. This relationship was described using generalized linear mixed models on the entire time series and for each inter-shift period. Our results indicate that (1) the fish community structure has been significantly modified, (2) environmental drivers influencing fish diversity have changed during these 3 periods, and (3) the fish-environment relationships have been modified over time. From this, we conclude a regime shift has occurred in the Gironde estuary. We also highlight that anthropogenic influences have increased, which re-emphasizes the importance of local management in maintaining fish diversity and associated goods and services within the context of climate change.

Ecologicalnetwork analysis (ENA) provides numerous ecosystem level indices offering a valuableapproach to compare and categorize the ecological structure and function of ecosystems. The inclusionof ENA methods in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) has insured their continued contribution to ecosystem-based management. In EwE, ENA-derived ecological conclusions are currently based on single values ofENA indices calculated from a unique input flow matrix. Here, we document an easy-to-use routine thatallows EwE users to incorporate uncertainty in EwE input data into the calculation of ENA indices. Thisroutine, named ENAtool, is a suite of Matlab functions that performs three main steps: (1) import of anexisting Ecopath model and its associated parameter uncertainty values in the form of uncertainty inter-vals into Matlab; (2) generation of an ensemble of Ecopath models with the same structure as the original,and with parameter values varying based on the prescribed uncertainty limits; and (3) calculation of aset of 13 ENA indices for each ensemble member (one set of flow values) and of summary statisticsacross the whole ensemble. This novel routine offers the opportunity to calculate ENA indices rangesand confidence intervals, and thus to perform quantitative data analyses. An application of ENAtool on apre-existing Ecopath model of the Bay of Biscay continental shelf is presented, with a focus on the robust-ness of previously published ENA-based ecological traits of this ecosystem when the newly introduceduncertainty values are added. We also describe the sensitivity of the ENAtool results to both the numberof ensemble members used and to the uncertainty interval set around each input parameter. Ecologicalconclusions derived from EwE, particularly those regarding the comparison of structural and functionalelements for a range of ecosystem types or the assessment of ecosystem properties along gradients ofenvironmental conditions or anthropogenic disturbances, will gain in statistical interpretability.

International audience; Ecological network analysis was applied in the Seine estuary ecosystem, northern France, integrating ecological data from the years 1996 to 2002. The Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach was used to model the trophic flows in 6 spatial compartments leading to 6 distinct EwE models: the navigation channel and the two channel flanks in the estuary proper, and 3 marine habitats in the eastern Seine Bay. Each model included 12 consumer groups, 2 primary producers, and one detritus group. Ecological network analysis was performed, including a set of indices, keystoneness, and trophic spectrum analysis to describe the contribution of the 6 habitats to the Seine estuary ecosystem functioning. Results showed that the two habitats with a functioning most related to a stressed state were the northern and central navigation channels, where building works and constant maritime traffic are considered major anthropogenic stressors. The strong top-down control highlighted in the other 4 habitats was not present in the central channel, showing instead (i) a change in keystone roles in the ecosystem towards sediment-based, lower trophic levels, and (ii) a higher system omnivory. The southern channel evidenced the highest system activity (total system throughput), the higher trophic specialisation (low system omnivory), and the lowest indication of stress (low cycling and relative redundancy). Marine habitats showed higher fish biomass proportions and higher transfer efficiencies per trophic levels than the estuarine habitats, with a transition area between the two that presented intermediate ecosystem structure. The modelling of separate habitats permitted disclosing each one's response to the different pressures, based on their a priori knowledge. Network indices, although non-monotonously, responded to these differences and seem a promising operational tool to define the ecological status of transitional water ecosystems.