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3. HEURISTIC METHODS FOR UPDATING SMALL WORLD REPRESENTATIONS IN STRATEGIC SITUATIONS OF KNIGHTIAN UNCERTAINTY.

Author

FEDUZI, ALBERTO, FAULKNER, PHILIP, RUNDE, JOCHEN, CABANTOUS, LAURE, and LOCH, CHRISTOPH H.

Subjects
SMALL world mathematical model, DECISION making, MANAGEMENT, HEURISTIC, PROBABILITY theory, UNCERTAINTY, REASONING, CONFIRMATION bias
Abstract

Recent studies on the construction and use of “small world representations” in strategic decision-making under Knightian uncertainty say little about how such representations should be updated over the implementation phase. This paper draws on the psychology of reasoning to take a step toward answering this question. We begin by theorizing small world representations and how the scenario spaces they contain are constructed and may be updated over time.We then introduce two well-known heuristicmethods of inquiry, disconfirmation and counterfactual reasoning; translate them into practical procedures for updating scenario spaces; and compare the relative performance of these procedures in strategic situations of Knightian uncertainty. Our principal findings are that the procedure based on counterfactual reasoning is superior to that based on disconfirmation with respect to (a) counteracting the confirmation bias, (b) promoting the exploration of the set of imaginable scenarios, and (c) facilitating action to mitigate or exploit the consequences ofwhatwould otherwise have been Black Swans.We closewith some broader implications for the study of strategic decision-making under Knightian uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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42. Industrial Excellence Revisited

Author

Loch, Christoph H., Van der Heyden, Ludo, Van Wassenhove, Luk N., Huchzermeier, Arnd, Escalle, Cedric, Loch, Christoph H., Van der Heyden, Ludo, Van Wassenhove, Luk N., Huchzermeier, Arnd, and Escalle, Cedric

Published
2003
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48. Status as a Valued Resource

Author

Huberman, Bernardo A., Loch, Christoph H., and Onculer, Ayse

Abstract

The striving for status has long been recognized in sociology and economics. Extensive theoretical arguments and empirical evidence propose that people view status as a sign of competence and pursue it as a means to achieve power and resources. A small literature, however, based on arguments from biology and evolutionary psychology, proposes that people pursue status as an (emotional) goal in itself, independent of competence and expressed by culturally flexible symbols. We present results of an experiment with human subjects from five different national cultures. We found that the subjects valued status independently of any monetary consequence and were willing to trade off some material gain to obtain it. Although this result was stable across the five cultures, the intensity of the striving for status and the desirability of a public display of status varied strongly: the intensity of the status motive corresponded to Hofstede's power distance index of the respective culture. Finally, the amount of status seeking observed differed for men and for women, a preliminary but intriguing observation that deserves further study. (Contains 1 figure, 8 footnotes, and 3 tables.)

Published
2004
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