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Abstract: Following Efron (2014), we propose an algorithm for estimating treatment effects for use by researchers employing a regression-discontinuity (RD) design. This algorithm generates a set of estimates of the treatment effect from bootstrapped samples, wherein the polynomial-selection algorithm developed by Pei, Lee, Card, and Weber (2021) is applied to each sample, the average of these RD treatment effect (RDTE) estimates is computed and serves as the overall estimate of the RDTE. Effectively, this procedure estimates a set of plausible RD estimates and weights the estimates by their likelihood of being the best estimate to form a weighted-average estimate. We discuss why this procedure may lower the estimate’s root mean squared error (RMSE). In simulation results, we show that this better performance is achieved, yielding up to a 5% reduction in RMSE relative to PLCW’s method and a 16% reduction in RMSE relative to Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik’s (2014) method for bandwidth selection (with default settings).

To evaluate how Advanced Placement (AP) courses affect college-going, we randomly assigned the offer of enrollment into an AP science course to over 1,800 students in twenty-three schools that had not previously offered the course. We find no AP course effects on students' college entrance exam scores (SAT/ACT). As expected, AP course-takers are substantially more likely to take the AP exam than their control group counterparts. At the same time, treatment group students opt out of the exam at very high rates and most do not earn a passing score on the AP exam. Though less precisely estimated, the results also suggest that taking the AP course increases students' aspirations to attend higher-quality colleges but does not lead to enrollment in such institutions.

Indiana, Oklahoma, and Washington each have programs designed to address college enrollment gaps by offering a promise of state-based college financial aid to low-income middle school students in exchange for making a pledge to do well in high school, be a good citizen, not be convicted of a felony, and apply for financial aid to college. Using a triple-difference specification, we estimate the effects of Washington's College Bound Scholarship program on students' high school grades, high school graduation, juvenile detention and rehabilitation, and incarceration in state prison during high school or early adulthood. We find insignificant and substantively small or negative effects on these outcomes. These results call into question the rationale for such early commitment programs.

We investigate factors influencing student sign-ups for Washington State's College Bound Scholarship program and consider whether there is scope for the program to change college enrollment expectations. We find that student characteristics associated with signing the scholarship pledge closely parallel characteristics of low-income students who attend 4-year colleges, suggesting that signing the pledge is driven largely by preexisting expectations of college going. We also find evidence that student sign-up rates are lower than have been previously reported, which is important given the perception among program administrators that nearly all eligible students sign up.

We investigate factors influencing student sign-ups for Washington State's College Bound Scholarship program and consider whether there is scope for the program to change college enrollment expectations. We find that student characteristics associated with signing the scholarship pledge closely parallel characteristics of low-income students who attend 4-year colleges, suggesting that signing the pledge is driven largely by preexisting expectations of college going. We also find evidence that student sign-up rates are lower than have been previously reported, which is important given the perception among program administrators that nearly all eligible students sign up. [This article was published in "AERA Open" (EJ1220761).]

Indiana, Oklahoma, and Washington have programs designed to address college enrollment and completion gaps by offering a promise of state-based college financial aid to low-income middle school students in exchange for making a pledge to do well in high school, be a good citizen, not be convicted of a felony, and apply for financial aid to college. Using a triple-difference specification, we find that Washington's College Bound Scholarship shifted enrollment from out-of-state to in-state colleges at which the scholarship could be used. While we find suggestive evidence that the program increased the likelihood of attending a postsecondary institution and attaining a bachelor's degree within five years of high school, we discuss why the program might be more successful if it did not require students to sign a pledge.

Affirmative action was banned in California, Texas, Washington, and Florida in the 1990s. Following this early wave, additional states banned the practice, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma. In response to concerns about underrepresented minorities' falling college enrollment in flagship public universities, administrators and policymakers took a variety of steps to mitigate these declines. This article assesses the long-run changes in the racial and ethnic composition of selected universities after these bans. We find that the elimination of affirmative action has led to persistent declines in the share of underrepresented minorities among students admitted to and enrolling in public flagship universities in these states. These results imply that alternative policies and administrative decisions were unable to fully replace race-based affirmative action. Furthermore, we show that the antecedent conditions have only modestly improved in recent decades, suggesting that policymakers and administrators need to focus on improving these conditions.

We describe the conceptualization, design, development, validation, and testing of a summative instrument that measures high school students' ability to analyze and evaluate data, construct scientific explanations, and formulate scientific arguments in biology and chemistry disciplinary contexts. Data from 1,405 students were analyzed to evaluate the properties of the instrument. Student measurement separation reliability was 0.71 with items showing satisfactory fit to the Partial Credit Model. The use of the Evidence-Centered Design framework during the design and development process provided a strong foundation for the validity argument. Additional evidence for validation were also gathered. The strengths of the instrument lie in its relatively brief time for administration and a unique approach that integrates science practice and disciplinary knowledge, while simultaneously seeking to decouple their measurement. This research models how to design assessments that align to the National Research Council's framework and informs the design of Next Generation Science Standards-aligned assessments.

The Advanced Placement (AP) program has undergone two major reforms in recent decades: the first aimed at increasing access and the second at increasing relevance. Both initiatives are partially designed to increase the number of high school students from low-income backgrounds who have access to college-level coursework. Yet critics argue that schools in less-resourced communities are unable to implement AP at the level expected by its founders. We offer the first model of the components inherent in a well-implemented AP science course and the first evaluation of AP implementation with a focus on public schools newly offering the inquiry-based version of AP Biology and Chemistry courses. We find that these frontier schools were able to implement most, but not all, of the key components of an AP science course.

Using a "naïve" specification, this paper estimates the relationship between 36 high school characteristics and 24 student outcomes controlling for students' pre-high school characteristics. The goal of this exploration is not to generate casual estimates, but rather to: (a) compare the size of the relationships to determine which inputs seem most promising and to identify which student outcomes appear most susceptible to being affected; (b) obtain likely upper-bound effect sizes that are useful information for power analyses used to establish minimum sample sizes for more robust designs capable of revealing causal impacts; and (c) illustrate how small effects over many outcomes (which are cumulatively important) can be easily missed. I find that most of the 36 inputs appear to have affected more outcomes than one would expect by chance, but that the apparent effects were generally small. Further, I find a higher frequency of large and significant apparent effects on educational achievement and attainment outcomes than labor market and other outcomes for young adults.

The 2013 decision by the U.S. Supreme Court in the Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin case clarified when and how it is legally permissible for universities to use an applicant's race or ethnicity in its admissions decisions. The court concluded that such use is permissible when "no workable race-neutral alternatives would produce the educational benefits of diversity." This paper shows that replacing traditional affirmative action with a system that uses an applicant's predicted likelihood of being an underrepresented racial minority as a proxy for the applicant's actual minority status can yield an admitted class that has a lower predicted grade point average and likelihood of graduating than the class that would have been admitted using traditional affirmative action. This result suggests that race-neutral alternatives may not be "workable" from the university's perspective.

Affirmative action in college admissions was effectively banned in Texas by the Hopwood ruling in 1997, by voter referenda in California and Washington in 1996 and 1998, and by administrative decisions in Florida in 1999. The "Hopwood" and "Johnson" rulings also had possible applicability to public colleges throughout Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The Supreme Court's 2003 decision in the "Grutter" and "Gratz" cases reaffirmed but limited the legal basis for affirmative action in colleges. This article uses nationally representative data on the admissions decisions of high school students in 1992 and 2004 to estimate the magnitude of the change in affirmative action in college admission decisions (i.e., how these policy changes affected the relative likelihood of admission of minority and nonminority applicants). We find substantial declines in levels of affirmative action practiced by highly selective colleges in the states affected by bans and the "Hopwood" and "Johnson" rulings, and no evidence of declines outside these states (and thus modest and generally insignificant declines nationwide). We show how the decline in affirmative action in these particular states affects not only students in these states but also those students who live in adjacent states, particularly when the adjacent states lack highly selective colleges.

This article uses Florida administrative data to evaluate the role that public high schools play in the growing female advantage in college enrollment. We first show evidence of gender sorting across public high schools that is beyond what one would observe if students were randomly assigned to their schools. Using regression and decomposition techniques, we then find that across-school gender sorting explains 12% and 16% of females' higher rates of enrollment among Hispanic and Black students, respectively. This relatively large contribution of high schools to gender disparities in college enrollment among Black and Hispanic students has implications for educators at all levels.

This article documents evidence of nonrandom gender sorting across K-12 schools in the United States. The sorting exists among coed schools and at all grade levels, and it is highest in the secondary school grades. We observe some gender sorting across school sectors and types: for instance, males are slightly underrepresented in private schools and charter schools and are substantially overrepresented in irregular public schools, a large share of which educates students with special needs and juvenile justice involvement. Gender sorting within sectors and types is also quite prevalent and appears to be highest within the private schools (where single-sex schools are more common) and irregular public schools. We find that gender sorting is higher in counties that have higher shares of enrollment in private and nonregular public schools. This sorting occurs even though parents have similar stated preferences for school attributes for their sons and daughters. (Contains 5 tables, 1 figure, and 12 notes.)

Using panel data from a census of public school students in the state of Florida, the authors examine the associations between students' high school course-taking in various subjects and their 10th-grade test scores, high school graduation, entry into postsecondary institutions, and postsecondary performance. The authors use propensity score matching (based on 8th-grade test scores, other student characteristics, and school effects) within groups of students matched on the composition of the students' course-taking in other subjects to estimate the differences in outcomes for students who take rigorous courses in a variety of subjects. The authors find substantial significant differences in outcomes for those who take rigorous courses, and these estimated effects are often larger for disadvantaged youth and students attending disadvantaged schools. (Contains 23 notes, 6 tables, and 5 figures.)

This article examines the factors that determine a high school's probability of offering Advanced Placement (AP) and International Baccalaureate (IB) courses. The likelihood that a school offers advanced courses, and the number of sections that it offers, is largely driven by having a critical mass of students who enter high school with eighth-grade test scores that are far above average. The number and qualifications of the instructional staff, in contrast, play a very small role. The results suggest that the willingness of schools to offer advanced courses is driven by real, perceived, or created student demand and that there may be few resource constraints that prevent schools from supplying advanced courses. (Contains 3 figures, 4 tables, and 11 notes.)

This paper estimates changes in the effects of educational attainment and college quality on three cohorts of students observed during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Consistent with most of the prior literature, I find that educational attainment and college quality raise earnings, and the magnitudes of these effects have increased over time. The new contributions of this paper are the following: (1) changes in these effects are disaggregated by sex, race, and parent's SES, and include estimates of effects on earnings, labor force participation, family formation, and civic participation; (2) evidence of larger increases in the effects of education on earnings and labor force participation for men, Blacks, and Hispanics; (3) declining effects of educational attainment on voter registration; and (4) increasing effects of college quality on delaying marriage and childbearing, particularly for males. (Contains 4 tables.)

We use panel data on Florida high school students to examine race, poverty, and gender disparities in advanced course-taking. While white students are more likely to take advanced courses than black and Hispanic students, these disparities are eliminated when we condition on observable pre-high school characteristics. In fact, black and Hispanic students are more likely than observably similar white students to take advanced courses. Controlling for students' pre-high school characteristics substantially reduces poverty gaps, modestly reduces Asian-white gaps, and makes little dent in female-male gaps. Black and Hispanic students attend high schools that increase their likelihood of taking advanced courses relative to observably similar white students; this advantage is largely driven by minorities disproportionately attending magnet schools. Finally, recent federal and state efforts aimed at increasing access to advanced courses to poor and minority students appear to have succeeded in raising the share of students who take advanced courses from 2003 to 2006. However, secular trends (or spillovers of the policies to non-poor, non-minority students) have spurred faster growth for other students, contributing to widening demographic gaps in these years. (Contains 17 tables and 24 footnotes.)