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The purpose of this study is to have an in-depth understanding of the importance of the institutional environment for financial development in 43 Sub-Saharan African countries during the years 2004-2018. Using new institutional economic theory (NIE) we study how the four institutional factors Control of Corruption, Rule of Law, Political Stability and Absence of Violence, and Voice and Accountability affect financial development. We also survey how the effect of institutional factors varies when there are either high, medium or low levels of corruption. Empirical results show a positive linear relationship between all institutional factors and financial development. However, when corruption levels are high the correlation between institutional factors and financial development varies and has a weak linear relationship. Inferential statistics results from a fixed effect regression model with robust standard errors shows; when we control for the financial environment, Political Stability and Absence of Violence is the only indicator for the institutional environment that has a positive significant effect on financial development. We thereby conclude that the institutional environment, mostly political institutions, are important for financial development. Syftet med denna studie är att få en djupgående förståelse av institutionell miljö för finansiell utveckling i 43 Subsahariska afrikanska länder för åren 2004–2018. Med hjälp av den nya institutionella ekonomiska teorin undersöker vi hur de fyra institutionella faktorer Kontroll av Korruption, Rättsstat, Politisk Stabilitet och Frånvaro av Våld och Röst och Ansvarsskyldighet påverkar finansiell utveckling. Vi undersöker också hur effekten av institutionella faktorer varierar när det finns hög, medium eller låg nivå av korruption. Empiriskt resultat visar ett positivt linjärt samband mellan alla institutionella faktorer och finansiell utveckling. Däremot, när korruptions nivåerna är höga är korrelationen mellan institutionella faktorer och finansiell utveckling varierar och har ett svagt linjärt samband. Resultatet från inferentiell statistik med fixed-effektregressionsmodell med robust standardfel visar att; när vi kontrollerar för den finansiella miljön, kvarstår endast Politisk Stabilitet och Frånvaro av Våld som en indikator för institutionell miljö som har en positiv signifikant effekt på finansiell utveckling. Vi konstaterar därmed att institutionell miljö, särskilt politiska institutioner är viktiga för finansiell utveckling.

Cilj ovog rada je izrada dugoročnih projekcija gospodarskih kretanja u Republici Hrvatskoj za razdoblje do 2050. godine. Dugoročne projekcije kretanja gospodarstva korisne su radi pravovremenog uočavanja ograničenja i potencijalnih izazova u budućem razdoblju vezanih uz različita područja: demografske promjene, fiskalnu održivost, zaštitu okoliša i mnoge druge aspekte. Izrada projekcija temelji se na Cobb-Douglasovoj tipu funkcije proizvodnje koja u svojim dugoročnim projekcijama koristi Europska komisija za sve zemlje članice. Dugoročna kretanja gospodarstva proizlaze iz demografskih projekcija, te upotrebe proizvodnih faktora, rada i kapitala. No, najveća nepoznanica ostaje kretanje proizvodnosti nekog društva u dugom roku. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na potrebu značajnog podizanja efikasnosti investicija i ukupne proizvodnosti proizvodnih faktora, kao i povećanje stopa aktivnosti stanovništva na tržištu rada. Na taj način se, u određenoj mjeri, mogu ublažiti negativna demografska kretanja i očekivano smanjenje broja stanovnika u radnoj dobi u budućem razdoblju. Izrada dugoročnih projekcija uvijek je povezana s visokom razinom neizvjesnosti o kretanju brojnih varijabli u budućem razdoblju što utječe na rezultate projekcije. Prezentiranim rezultatima i zaključcima u ovom radu upotpunjena su relativno oskudna istraživanja o analiziranoj problematici u Republici Hrvatskoj. Prikazani alternativni scenariji rasta razine gospodarske aktivnosti, trebaju poslužiti kao podloga za izradu različitih brojnih strateških dokumenata koji definiraju srednjoročne i dugoročne politike, poput energetske, regionalne, industrijske, demografske, zdravstvene, zaštite okoliša i slično. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da će prosječna stopa gospodarskog rasta u razdoblju do 2050. godina u Republici Hrvatskoj iznositi od 1,1 posto (bazni scenarij) do najviše 1,9 posto, ovisno o pretpostavkama. Stopa rasta potencijalnog BDP-a više ovisi o kretanju faktorske proizvodnosti, nego o demografskim kretanjima., The aim of this paper is to provide long-term projections of economic growth in the Republic of Croatia for the period up to 2050. Long-term projections of the economic growth are useful tool for identification of potential growth limitations related to different socioeconomic issues: demography, fiscal sustainability, environmental protection and many other aspects. The projections are based on Cobb-Douglas’s type of production function in order to be comparable to European Commission long-term projections for all member states. Expected long-term economic developments are based on demographic projections, as well as projections of capital deepening and total factor productivity growth. Long-term projections are faced to many uncertainties, especially path of total factor productivity path in the long run. Research results point to the increase of investment efficiency and total factor productivity growth as the most important drivers for long-term growth. In addition, labor market participation rate seems to be of utmost importance. This could, at least to some extent, mitigate negative demographic trends and further working-age population shrinking. Long-term projections are usually faced to a high level of uncertainty. Many variables are exposed to future changes in alternative scenarios. The results and conclusions presented in this paper fill the gap in domestic literature on the long term potential growth in the Republic of Croatia. The alternative scenarios of growth could serve as a basis for a number of strategic documents dealing with energy, regional policy, industry, demographic, health, and environmental protection issues. The research results suggest that the average annual economic growth rate in Croatia up to 2050 in Croatia would be in range of 1.1 percent (base scenario) up to 1.9 percent, depending on the growth rate of total factor productivity. Potential GDP growth rate is more dependent on factor productivity rather than demography.

The new estimates of the Maddison Project show that GDP per capita ratio at purchasing power parity (ppp) between Bolivia and Finland has changed from 0.68 ca. 1850 to 0.16 in 2015; similarly, that between Chile and Norway from 0.65 to 0.28. The aim of this article is to present a review of the literature and available quantitative evidence to understand how these extreme differences became possible between countries with similarly enormous natural resource endowments. Specifically, the article seeks to: (a) identify some stylized facts that may help understand the divergence between Andean and Nordic countries; (b) identify key historical processes that explain the divergent effect of natural resource abundance in Andean and Nordic economies. In order to achieve these objectives, four topics are covered: GDPpc, population, trade and taxation. The analysis comprises three Nordic countries (Finland, Norway and Sweden) and three Andean countries (Bolivia, Chile and Peru) from the mid-Nineteenth Century to present day. The sample size, time span covered and thematic approach provide new evidence regarding previous work.

We consider whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between government expenditures and real GDP growth in postwar Japan. After studying the time-series properties of these variables, we find that government consumption and government investment both have a positive and causal effect on growth. This suggests that fiscal policy may not have been as ineffective during the last two decades of Japan’s stagnant growth as some have suggested, but may have helped to prevent an even more severe balance-sheet recession after the collapse of the Japanese bubble economy.

This paper provides three perspectives on long-run growth rates of labor productivity (LP) and of multi-factor productivity (MFP) for the U. S. economy. It extracts statistical growth trends for labor productivity from quarterly data for the total economy going back to 1952, provides new estimates of MFP growth extending back to 1891, and tackles the problem of forecasting LP and MFP twenty years into the future. The statistical trend for growth in total economy LP ranged from 2.75 percent in early 1962 down to 1.25 percent in late 1979 and recovered to 2.45 percent in 2002. Our results on productivity trends identify a problem in the interpretation of the 2008-09 recession and conclude that at present statistical trends cannot be extended past 2007. For the longer stretch of history back to 1891, the paper provides numerous corrections to the growth of labor quality and to capital quantity and quality, leading to significant rearrangements of the growth pattern of MFP, generally lowering the unadjusted MFP growth rates during 1928-50 and raising them after 1950. Nevertheless, by far the most rapid MFP growth in U. S. history occurred in 1928-50, a phenomenon that I have previously dubbed the "one big wave." The paper approaches the task of forecasting 20 years into the future by extracting relevant precedents from the growth in labor productivity and in MFP over the last seven years, the last 20 years, and the last 116 years. Its conclusion is that over the next 20 years (2007-2027) growth in real potential GDP will be 2.4 percent (the same as in 2000-07), growth in total economy labor productivity will be 1.7 percent, and growth in the more familiar concept of NFPB sector labor productivity will be 2.05 percent. The implied forecast 1.50 percent growth rate of per-capita real GDP falls far short of the historical achievement of 2.17 percent between 1929 and 2007 and represents the slowest growth of the measured American standard of living over any two-decade interval recorded since the inauguration of George Washington.

The paper analyses the dynamics and structure of GDP in Romania during the transition period. Starting from the classical Cobb-Douglas production model, the paper investigates different scenarios for the Romanian economy on the basis of different assumptions regarding the model’s parameters. The adapted model also tries to cover the implications of some peculiarities of the Romanian transition economy, such as a large agricultural sector.

This article presents per capita GDP and income distribution estimates for preindustrial Poland. It is based on a social table for the Voivodeship of Cracow in 1578. Our evidence indicates that income in Poland was distributed more equally than in contemporary Holland. However, the extraction rate was much higher than in the North Sea area. Furthermore, income inequality in the countryside of the Voivodeship was higher than inequality in Cracow. This can be explained by the demesne economy based on serfdom that was prevalent in agriculture. Using trends in real wages and urbanisation, we also project Polish GDP forwards and backwards in time. Our results indicate that Polish per capita GDP was below that of Western Europe as early as the fifteenth century. This gap persisted despite moderate growth of the Polish economy in the sixteenth century. In the seventeenth century, Poland impoverished and became even poorer than Asian economies for which similar estimates are available. Poland recovered slightly in the eighteenth century but continued to lag behind Western Europe.