Search

AimsTo assess survival predictivity of baseline blood cell differential count (BCDC) discretization methods in acutely ill adults visiting the emergency room over one-year.MethodsRetrospective cohort study on one-year survival of adults reporting to the emergency room of the A. Manzoni Hospital (Italy) during 2020. Automated BCDC analysis performed at baseline, assessed hemoglobin, red cell mean volume and distribution width (RDW), platelet distribution width (PDW), platelet-hematocrit, absolute red blood cells, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, basophils, and platelets. Discretization cutoffs were defined by: Benchmark laboratory reference values and Tailored (maximally selected rank statistics for linear and sigmoid-shaped distributed variables; optimal-equal hazard ratio (HR) method for U-shaped distributed variables. Explanatory variables (age, gender, inward admission) were analyzed using Cox multivariable regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves used the sum of Cox-significant variables in each method.ResultsOf 11052 patients (median age 67 years, interquartile range (IQR) 51–81, 48% female), 59% (n=6489) were discharged and 41% (n=4563) were admitted. After a 306-day median follow up (IQR 208–417 days), 9455 (86%) patients were alive and 1597 (14%) deceased. Increased HRs were associated with age > 73 years (HR=4.29 CI 3.78–4.87), and hospital admission (HR=2.05, CI 1.83–2.29). Age, sex, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, RDW, PDW, neutrophils, lymphocytes and eosinophils were significant in overall. Benchmark included basophils and platelet count (area under the ROC curve (AUROC) 0.78). Tailored included monocyte counts and PCT (AUROC of 0.82).ConclusionsTailored discretization of BCDC provided meaningful insight regarding acute patient survival.Key messagesWhat is already known on this topicInformation on survival predictivity of BCDC is scarce, particularly in acutely ill patients considering that reference values are based on the general population.What this study addsLaboratory reference interval values predicting survival were hemoglobin, RDW, MCV, neutrophil, lymphocyte, eosinophil, and basophils counts, PLT, and PDW, independently of sex, age, and acute inward admission. Survival predictivity was improved by discretization of hemoglobin, RDW, MCV, neutrophil, lymphocyte, eosinophil, and monocyte counts, and PDW, according to the maximally selected rank statistics and optimal-equal HR method.How this study might affect research, practice, or policyBaseline BCDC discretized by tailored methods may be a useful biomarker for hazard warning in acute illness.

to evaluate immunogenicity and effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCWs).cohort study.in a hospital in Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) HCWs without ("negative cohort") and with ("positive cohort") history of SARS-CoV-2 infection or elevated serum antibody before the vaccination campaign (27.12.2020) were included. Data collection and follow-up covered the period 27.12.2020-13.05.2022.1. serum anti-spike-1 (anti-S1) antibody levels after vaccination; 2. vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infections (either symptomatic or not) in the negative cohort. Data on infections were extracted from multiple sources (laboratory, accident reports, questionnaires). Vaccination was treated as a time-dependent variable. Using unvaccinated person-time as reference, hazard ratios (HR) of infections and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated with a Cox regression model adjusted for gender, age, and occupation. VE was calculated as (1 - HR)×100.5,596 HCWs were included, 4,771 in the negative and 825 in the positive cohort. In both cohorts, serum anti-S1 antibodies were high one months after the second dose, halved after six months, and returned to high levels after the third dose. In the negative cohort, 1,401 SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified. VE was 70% (95%CI 54-80; 46 infected) in the first four months after the second dose and later declined to 16% (95%CI 0-43; 97 infected). After the third dose, VE increased to 57% (95%CI 35-71; 61 infected) in the first month but rapidly declined over time, particularly after three months (24% in the fourth month and 1% afterwards). The number of infections avoided by vaccination was estimated to be 643 (95%CI 236-1,237).in spite of rapidly declining effectiveness, vaccination helped to avoid several hundred infections in the considered hospital.

assessment of the health effects on the resident population around the incinerator for municipal solid waste in Valmadrera (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) in relation to the exposure level to the pollutants produced by the plant.historical cohort study, based on the resident population from 2003 to 2016 in the study area. With a dispersion model, based on PM10 emitted by the plant, three areas of exposure (high, medium, low) were defined and, on the basis of the residence of the cohort, different exposure levels were attributed to the subjects. The association between level of exposure and health effects were estimated by comparing the high and medium exposure levels with the low exposure level, using a Cox model, adjusted for age and socioeconomic deprivation index.mortality rates, hospitalization rates, cancer incidence rates, and perinatal outcomes were analysed for the main causes potentially associated with exposure to incineration plants.the subjects enrolled in the cohort were 106,056 (1,000,242 person-years). There were no statistically significant excesses of risk for almost all the outcomes investigated. Excessive mortality and hospitalization were found for liver/biliary cancers (HR women: 2.57; 95%CI 1.15-2.79; HR men: 2.22; 95%CI 1.10-4, 84). In the municipality where the plant is located, an excess prevalence (OR 1.78; 95%CI 1.43-2.21) of hepatitis C was found.the results suggest the absence of a relationship between residence in areas with different levels of pollutants emitted by the plant and the onset of almost all diseases. The associated causes do not have aetiological plausibility with exposure to pollutants from waste incineration. In particular, for liver/liver and biliary cancer, the association with infectious causes rather than exposure to environmental pollutants is more plausible.

BACKGROUND Leukaemias comprise a heterogenous group of haematological malignancies. In CONCORD-3, we analysed data for children (aged 0-14 years) and adults (aged 15-99 years) diagnosed with a haematological malignancy during 2000-14 in 61 countries. Here, we aimed to examine worldwide trends in survival from leukaemia, by age and morphology, in young patients (aged 0-24 years). METHODS We analysed data from 258 population-based cancer registries in 61 countries participating in CONCORD-3 that submitted data on patients diagnosed with leukaemia. We grouped patients by age as children (0-14 years), adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). We categorised leukaemia subtypes according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3), updated with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes. We estimated 5-year net survival by age and morphology, with 95% CIs, using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. To control for background mortality, we used life tables by country or region, single year of age, single calendar year and sex, and, where possible, by race or ethnicity. All-age survival estimates were standardised to the marginal distribution of young people with leukaemia included in the analysis. FINDINGS 164 563 young people were included in this analysis: 121 328 (73·7%) children, 22 963 (14·0%) adolescents, and 20 272 (12·3%) young adults. In 2010-14, the most common subtypes were lymphoid leukaemia (28 205 [68·2%] patients) and acute myeloid leukaemia (7863 [19·0%] patients). Age-standardised 5-year net survival in children, adolescents, and young adults for all leukaemias combined during 2010-14 varied widely, ranging from 46% in Mexico to more than 85% in Canada, Cyprus, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Australia. Individuals with lymphoid leukaemia had better age-standardised survival (from 43% in Ecuador to ≥80% in parts of Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) than those with acute myeloid leukaemia (from 32% in Peru to ≥70% in most high-income countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania). Throughout 2000-14, survival from all leukaemias combined remained consistently higher for children than adolescents and young adults, and minimal improvement was seen for adolescents and young adults in most countries. INTERPRETATION This study offers the first worldwide picture of population-based survival from leukaemia in children, adolescents, and young adults. Adolescents and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia continue to have lower survival than children. Trends in survival from leukaemia for adolescents and young adults are important indicators of the quality of cancer management in this age group. FUNDING Children with Cancer UK, the Institut National du Cancer, La Ligue Contre le Cancer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Swiss Re, Swiss Cancer Research foundation, Swiss Cancer League, Rossy Family Foundation, US National Cancer Institute, and the American Cancer Society.

Introduction: Most patients evaluated for suspected pulmonary embolism(PE) conclude the Emergency Department(ED) work-up with a diagnosis of PE not confirmed(PE excluded;PE-E). We aimed to investigate the clinical features, short and long-term mortality, and prognostic factors for death in elderly with PE-E, and to compare these figures with those of patients with PE confirmed(PE-C). Methods: Consecutive patients ≥65 years old evaluated in the ED for clinically suspected hemodynamically stable acute PE were included in this retrospective cohort study. Results: Study population: 657 patients with suspected PE, PE-C:162(24.65%). When compared with PE-C, patients with PE-E presented a higher prevalence of chronic cardiopulmonary disease (17.37% vs 8.02%, p = 0.003), a lower prevalence of pulse rate >110 (13.13% vs 25.93%; p0 was associated with higher short and long-term mortality (30-day:HR:5.31,p = 0.029; 5 year:HR:2.18, p < 0.001), meanwhile comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index>0) only with higher long-term mortality (30-day: HR:1.60, p = 0.342; 5 year: HR:1.41, p = 0.038). Conclusion: In real world haemodinamically stable elderly patients evaluated in the ED for suspected PE, short and long-term mortality was markedly high regardless whether PE was confirmed or excluded. At the time to set management and follow up strategies, elderly patients with PE excluded should not be considered a low-risk population.

Restrictions imposed to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission should be weighed against consequences on vulnerable groups' health. Lifestyles and disease management of older people with diabetes might have been differentially impacted compared to non-chronic individuals.A cross-sectional study (LOST in Lombardia) was conducted on a representative full sample of 4 400 older adults (17supth/sup-30supth/supNovember 2020), collecting data on lifestyles, mental health and access to care before and during the pandemic.We compared 947 (51.9%) people with diabetes and 879 (48.1%) healthy subjects reporting no chronic conditions. People with diabetes reported more frequently increased physical activity (odds ratio, OR 2.65, 95% confidence internals, CI 1.69-4.13), drinks/week reduction (OR 6.27, 95%CI 3.59-10.95), increased consumption of fruit (OR 2.06, 95%CI 1.62-2.63), vegetables (OR 1.41, 95%CI 1.10-1.82), fish (OR 2.51, 95%CI 1.74-3.64) and olive oil (OR 3.54, 95%CI 2.30-5.46). People with diabetes increased telephone contacts with general practitioners (OR 3.70, 95%CI 2.83-4.83), hospitalisations (OR 9.01, 95%CI 3.96-20.51), visits and surgeries cancellations (OR 3.37, 95%CI 2.58-4.42) and treatment interruptions (OR 1.95, 95%CI 1.33-2.86).Pandemic adverse effects occurred but are heterogenous in a population with chronic diseases, who seized the opportunity to improve health behaviours, despite health system difficulties guaranteeing routine care, within and beyond COVID-19.

Little is known on potential socioeconomic and gender disparities in dietary changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a telephone-based survey during fall 2020 on 4400 participants representative of the population aged 65–99 years living in Lombardy, Italy. Changes in a Mediterranean lifestyle were assessed retrospectively by scoring modifications in the consumption of nine food groups and five diet-related behaviours compared to 2019. A Mediterranean COVID-19 Pandemic Score (MedCovid-19 Score) was computed, reflecting changes during pandemic, with increasing values indicating improvements in line with a Mediterranean lifestyle. Predictors of favourable dietary changes (MedCovid-19 Score ≥ 1) were education (odds ratio [OR] = 1.52; 95% confidence interval 1.19–1.95 for postgraduate vs. lower), wealth (OR = 1.52; 1.14–2.02 for high vs. low) and skilled manual occupations (OR = 1.57; 1.28–1.92 vs. white collars). Women were more likely than men to move away from a Mediterranean lifestyle (OR = 1.86; 1.58–2.21). In conclusions, changes towards a Mediterranean lifestyle were disproportionately distributed across gender and socioeconomic strata.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: COVID-19 containment measures significantly impacted lifestyle of the general population, including physical activity. Although the older adults are particularly susceptible to the potential consequences of sedentary lifestyle and inactivity, few studies investigated pandemic effects in this segment of the population. We aimed to evaluate COVID-19 pandemic effects on weight gain and physical activity in the Italian older adults, and assess the impact of possible changes in physical activity on mental health wellbeing.METHODS: In November 2020, a cross-sectional survey was conducted on a representative sample of 4400 older adults (aged 65 or more) from the Lombardy region, Northern Italy. Changes in body mass index (BMI) and physical activity were assessed, compared to the previous year. Using unconditional multiple logistic models, we estimated the odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of a decrease in physical activity during COVID-19 pandemic and we evaluated if decreased physical activity was a determinant of a worsening in psychological wellbeing.RESULTS: Neither weight gain nor increase in obesity prevalence occurred during the pandemic. Mean time spent in physical activity significantly decreased, with 43.8% of participants reporting a decrease of 1 h/week or more during COVID-19 pandemic. A decreased physical activity was determinant of a worsening of selected mental health outcomes, such as: sleep quality (OR = 2.45; 95% CI: 1.91-3.15) and quantity (OR = 1.54; 95% CI: 1.18-2.02), anxiety (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.14-1.52) and depressive symptoms (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.38-1.88).CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, while no major changes in BMI were observed, physical activity significantly declined in the older adults. In this population, the lack of physical activity might have contributed to the observed worsening in mental health. During emergency periods, encouraging physical activity might be effective also to preserve psychological wellbeing.

Background: The EUROCARE-5 study revealed disparities in childhood cancer survival among European countries, giving rise to important initiatives across Europe to reduce the gap. Extending its representativeness through increased coverage of eastern European countries, the EUROCARE-6 study aimed to update survival progress across countries and years of diagnosis and provide new analytical perspectives on estimates of long-term survival and the cured fraction of patients with childhood cancer. Methods: In this population-based study, we analysed 135 847 children (aged 0–14 years) diagnosed during 2000–13 and followed up to the end of 2014, recruited from 80 population-based cancer registries in 31 European countries. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival differences by country and over time using period analysis, for all cancers combined and for major cancer types. We applied a variant of standard mixture cure models for survival data to estimate the cure fraction of patients by childhood cancer and to estimate projected 15-year survival. Findings: 5-year survival for all childhood cancer combined in Europe in 2010–14 was 81% (95% CI 81–82), showing an increase of three percentage points compared with 2004–06. Significant progress over time was observed for almost all cancers. Survival remained stable for osteosarcomas, Ewing sarcoma, Burkitt lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphomas, and rhabdomyoscarcomas. For all cancers combined, inequalities still persisted among European countries (with age-adjusted 5-year survival ranging from 71% [95% CI 60–79] to 87% [77–93]). The 15-year survival projection for all patients with childhood cancer diagnosed in 2010–13 was 78%. We estimated the yearly long-term mortality rate due to causes other than the diagnosed cancer to be around 2 per 1000 patients for all childhood cancer combined, but to approach zero for retinoblastoma. The cure fraction for patients with childhood cancer increased over time from 74% (95% CI 73–75) in 1998–2001 to 80% (79–81) in 2010–13. In the latter cohort, the cure fraction rate ranged from 99% (95% CI 74–100) for retinoblastoma to 60% (58–63) for CNS tumours and reached 90% (95% CI 87–93) for lymphoid leukaemia and 70% (67–73) for acute myeloid leukaemia. Interpretation: Childhood cancer survival is increasing over time in Europe but there are still some differences among countries. Regular monitoring of childhood cancer survival and estimation of the cure fraction through population-based registry data are crucial for evaluating advances in paediatric cancer care. Funding: European Commission.

Background: A prognostic stratification of mortality risk in older patients with sepsis admitted to medical wards is often challenging. Aims: To evaluate the ability of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, serum biomarkers (lactate and C-Reactive Protein, CRP), and measures of comorbidity and frailty in predicting in-hospital and 6-month mortality in a cohort of older patients admitted to an Acute Geriatric Unit (AGU) with a diagnosis of sepsis. Methods: All patients aged 70 years and over consecutively admitted to our AGU with sepsis in the study period were included. At admission, a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment including two measures of frailty (Clinical Frailty Scale [CFS], Frailty Index [FI]) was obtained. To assess the predictivity of candidate prognostic markers, the Area Under the Receiver-Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curves were analyzed. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was also performed. Results: We included 240 patients (median age = 85, IQR = 80–89, 40.8% women), of whom 33.8% died before discharge, and 60.4% at 6 months. The SOFA score (AUROC = 0.678, 95% CI 0.610–0.747) and CRP serum levels (AUROC = 0.606, 95% CI 0.532–0.680) were good predictors of in-hospital mortality. The CFS (AUROC = 0.703, 95% CI 0.637–0.768) and the FI (AUROC = 0.677, 95% CI 0.607–0.746) better predicted 6-month mortality. Results of the regression analysis confirmed the findings of the AUROC study. The combined assessment of SOFA and measures of frailty improved the performance of the model both in the short and the long term. Conclusions: Both the severity of organ dysfunction and frailty scores should be addressed on AGU admission to establish the short- and long-term outcomes of older patients with sepsis.

Background: Evidence about late effects in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors is scarce. This study assessed the risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) to identify the most common SMNs to be considered in follow-up care. Methods: Population-based cancer registries retrospectively identified first primary tumors (between 1976 and 2013) and SMNs in AYAs (15-39years old at their cancer diagnosis). AYA cancer survivors were those alive at least 5years after their first cancer diagnosis. The excess risk of SMNs was measured as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risk together with the cumulative incidence of SMNs. Results: The cohort included 67,692 AYA cancer survivors. The excess risk of developing any SMN (SIR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-1.7) was 60%. The excess risk of SMNs was significantly high for survivors of lymphomas; cancers of the breast, thyroid, female genital tract, digestive organs, gonads, and urinary tract; and melanomas. The cumulative incidence of all SMNs in AYA cancer survivors within 25years of their first cancer diagnosis was approximately 10%. Subsequent tumors contributing to approximately 60% of all SMNs were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and ovarian cancer in females and colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, and lymphomas in males. Conclusions: These results highlight the need to personalize follow-up strategies for AYA cancer survivors.

Background Evidence showed that mental health problems have risen markedly during COVID-19. It is unclear if part of the mental sufferings relates to the climate of uncertainty and confusion originated from rough communication by health officials and politicians. Here, we test the impact of unanticipated policy announcements of lockdown policies on mental health of the older population. Methods We used a representative telephone-based survey of 4400 people aged 65 years or older in Italy’s Lombardy region to compare information on self-reported symptoms of anxiety, depression and poor-quality sleep of subjects interviewed on the days of the policy announcement with that of subjects interviewed on other days. We used regression models adjusting for potential socio-demographic confounders as well study design with inverse probability weighting. Results On days when policymakers announced to extend the lockdown, mental health deteriorated on average by 5.5 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1–9.8] for self-reported anxiety symptoms and 5.1 percentage points (95% CI: 2.7–7.4) for self-reported depressive symptoms. The effect of the announcement to shorten the lockdown is more moderate but statistically significant. These associations were short term in duration; after just 1 day, self-reported mental health and sleep quality return to levels better than pre-announcement until a new policy change. Conclusions Our research shows that lockdown policy announcements are associated with short-term worsening in mental distress, highlighting the importance of appropriate communication strategies and political determinations in crisis times.

Introduction The prognostic accuracy of D-dimer for risk assessment in acute Pulmonary Embolism (APE) patients may be hampered by comorbidities. We investigated the impact of comorbidity burden (CB) by using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), on the prognostic ability of D-dimer to predict 30 and 90-day mortality in hemodynamically stable elderly patients with APE. Methods All patients aged >65 years with normotensive APE, consecutively evaluated in the Emergency Department since 2010 through 2014 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Area under the curve (AUC) and ½ Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) were calculated. Results Study population: 162 patients, median age: 79.2 years. The optimal cut-off value of CCI score for predicting mortality was ≤1 (Low CB) and >1 (High CB), AUC = 0.786. Higher levels of D-dimer were associated with an increased risk death at 30 (HR = 1.039, 95%CI:1.000–1.080, p = 0.049) and 90 days (HR = 1.039, 95%CI:1.009–1.070, p = 0.012). When added to simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) score, D-dimer increased significantly the AUC for predicting 30-day mortality in Low CB (AUC = 0.778, 95%CI:0.620–0.937, ½NRI = 0.535, p = 0.015), but not in High CB patients (AUC = 0.634, 95%CI:0.460–0.807, ½ NRI = 0.248, p = 0.294). Similarly, for 90-day mortality D-dimer increased significantly the AUC in Low CB (AUC = 0.786, 95%CI:0.643–0.929, ½NRI = 0.424, p-value = 0.025), but not in High CB patients (AUC = 0.659, 95%CI:0.541–0.778, ½NRI = 0.354, p-value = 0.165). Conclusion In elderly patients with normotensive APE, comorbidities condition the prognostic performance of D-dimer, which was found to be a better predictor of death in subjects with low CB. These results support multimarker strategies for risk assessment in this population.

Elderly patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) frequently have significant underlying comorbidities which may condition the prognosis. The current study aimed to determine the ability of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score to predict short and long-term mortality in elderly patients with hemodynamically stable acute PE. All hemodynamically stable patients aged >65 years with acute PE, evaluated in the Emergency Department since 2010 through 2014, were included in this retrospective cohort study. CCI, simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) scores and vital status were recorded. Were included 162 patients with confirmed PE, out of 657 suspected cases (24.7%). Median age: 79.2 years, 74.1% presented an sPESI > 1 and 61.1% a CCI > 1. The overall 30, 90-day and 2-year mortality was 11.7% (95%CI 6.6–16.6), 19.8% (95%CI 13.4–25.7) and 31.8% (95%CI 24.1–38.8). For 30-day mortality sPESI showed an AUC 0.642 (95%CI 0.511–0.772) and adding CCI as covariate did not increase its prognostic performance. For 90-day mortality, in an adjusted model including sPESI and CCI, CCI showed a HR 1.282 (95%CI 1.151–1.429, p-value < 0.001), and sPESI a HR = NS(p-value = 0.267). For 2-year mortality, in an adjusted model including sPESI and CCI, CCI showed a HR 1.295 (95%CI 1.180–1.421, p-value < 0.001) and sPESI a HR = NS(p-value = 0.353). In elderly patients with hemodynamically stable PE, the CCI score was found to be an independent predictor of mortality. CCI shows a significantly better ability to predict 90-day and 2-year mortality than sPESI. The assessment of comorbidity burden by using the CCI score may be proposed as an useful tool to predict mortality in these patients.

Introduction Data on medium- and long-term prognostic factors for death in elderly patients with acute Pulmonary Embolism (APE) are lacking. The present study aimed to assess sPESI score and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) as medium- and long-term predictors of mortality in elderly patients with haemodinamically stable APE. Methods All consecutive patients aged≥65 years old, evaluated at the emergency department (ED) of our hospital from 2010 through 2014, with a final diagnosis of APE, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Results Study population:162 patients, female:36.5%, median age:79 years old, 74% presented a sPESI score>0, and 61% a CCI≥ 1. All causes mortality: 19.8%, 23.5%, 26.5%, 32.1% and 48.2% at 3, 6 months, 1, 2 and 5 years after APE. Univariate regression analysis: CCI≥1 was associated with a higher mortality at 3, 6 months, 1, 2 and 5 years. Multivariate Cox analysis: CCI≥1 associated with increased mortality at 3 months (HR:4.29; IC95%:1.46–12.59), 6 months (HR:5.33; IC95%:1.84–15.44), 1 year (HR:4.87; IC95%:1.87–12.70), 2 years (HR:3.78; IC95%:1.74–8.25), and 5 years (HR:2.30; IC95%:1.33–3.99). sPESI score≥1 was not found to be related to an increased medium-or long-term mortality. Negative predictive values (IC95%) of CCI≥1 were 93.65% (87.61–99.69), 93.65% (87.61–99.69), 92.06% (85.37–98.76), 87.3% (79.05–95.55) and 71.61% (60.13–83.1) for mortality at 3, 6 months, 1, 2 and 5 years. Conclusion In elderly patients with a confirmed normotensive APE, unlike sPESI score, CCI showed to be an independent prognostic factor for medium- and long-term mortality. In these patients, after the acute phase following a PE event, the assessment of the comorbidities burden represents the most appropriate approach for predicting medium- and long-term mortality., Public health; Cardiology; Cardiovascular system; Circulatory system; Hematological system; Respiratory system; Pulmonary embolism; Mortality; Prognosis; Aged

Purpose: Adolescent and young adult (AYA, 15-39 years) cancer survivors (alive at least 5 years after cancer diagnosis) are less studied than younger and older cancer survivors and research on their late effects is limited. To facilitate research on long-term outcomes of AYA cancer survivors, we established, in Italy, a population-based AYA cancer survivors' cohort. This article describes the study design and main characteristics of this cohort. Methods: The cohort derives from population-based cancer registries (CRs). Each CR identified AYA cancer patients retrospectively. Treatment for first primary cancer and all health events from diagnosis to death can be traced through linkage with available health databases, such as hospital discharge records (HDRs), mortality files, and outpatient and pharmaceutical databases. Results: Thirty-four CRs participated to the cohort which overall includes 93,291 AYAs with cancer and 67,692 cancer survivors. First primary cancer distribution in AYA cancer survivors differs by sex and age groups because of the different cancer types diagnosed in AYAs. Almost 78% of AYA cancer survivors have HDRs and 14.8% also pharmaceutical and outpatient databases. Conclusion: This cohort will be used to study, for the first time in Italy, the pattern and excess risk of late effects in AYA cancer survivors. HDRs, outpatient and pharmaceutical databases will be used to define primary treatment to assess its impact on AYA cancer survivors' late effects. This cohort exploiting data sources already available at CRs, minimize the data collection effort and it will contribute to assess the feasibility of using administrative database to study cancer survivors' late effects.

In a general population with acute Pulmonary Embolism (PE) elevated D-dimer concentrations associate with increased mortality. The aim of the study was to assess the ability of D-dimer to predict 30 and 90-days mortality in elderly patients with acute PE. Hemodynamically stable patients aged ≥65 years old with confirmed PE were included in this retrospective cohort study. A pulmonary computerized tomography angiography scan, D-dimer concentrations, simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) variables and vital status were available for all patients. The study included 154 confirmed cases of PE (23.5 % of suspected), median age 79.1 years. D-dimer was higher in patients dead than in those alive at 30 (median 14,547 vs. 8340 ng/mL, p = 0.05) and 90 days (13,604 vs. 7973 ng/mL, p = 0.013). When adding D-dimer to sPESI, the discriminant capacity to predict mortality within 30 and 90 days was increased by 0.080 and 0.089, respectively. The contribution of D-dimer to the discriminating ability was NRI = 0.286 (95 % CI -0.198 to 0.770, p value: 0.247) at 30 days and NRI = 0.605 (95 % CI 0.223-0.988, p-value: 0.002) at 90 days.D-dimer concentration was associated with 30 and 90-days mortality and showed a higher discriminant capacity than sPESI alone to predict 90-days mortality. Adding D-dimer concentrations to sPESI score seems to improve its prognostic ability, supporting multivariable risk models as the best approach to estimate prognosis in elderly patients with PE.

Objectives: To generate and validate algorithms for the identification of individuals with dementia in the community setting, by the interrogation of administrative records, an inexpensive and already available source of data. Methods: We collected and anonymized information on demented individuals 65 years of age or older from ten general practitioners (GPs) in the district of Brianza (Northern Italy) and compared this with the administrative data of the local health protection agency (Agenzia per la Tutela della Salute). Indicators of the disease in the administrative database (diagnosis of dementia in the hospital discharge records; use of cholinesterase inhibitors/memantine; neuropsychological tests; brain CT/MRI; outpatient neurological visits) were used separately and in different combinations to generate algorithms for the detection of patients with dementia. Results: When used individually, indicators of dementia showed good specificity, but low sensitivity. By their combination, we generated different algorithms: I-therapy with ChEI/memantine or diagnosis of dementia at discharge or neuropsychological tests (specificity 97.9%, sensitivity 52.5%); II-therapy with ChEI/memantine or diagnosis of dementia at discharge or neuropsychological tests or brain CT/MRI or neurological visit (sensitivity 90.8%, specificity 70.6%); III-therapy with ChEI/memantine or diagnosis of dementia at discharge or neuropsychological tests or brain CT/MRIMRI and neurological visit (specificity 89.3%, sensitivity 73.3%). Conclusions: These results show that algorithms obtained from administrative data are not sufficiently accurate in classifying patients with dementia, whichever combination of variables is used for the identification of the disease. Studies in large patient cohorts are needed to develop further strategies for identifying patients with dementia in the community setting.

Background: Hospital emergency departments (ED) can contribute to improve health outcomes and reduce costs of health care system. This study evaluated ED admissions during a twelve months period, analyzing characteristics of patients who underwent to emergency care in order to understand factors involved in ED overcrowding and promote adequate management. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed a twelve months window, with in-depth focus on December/January when almost all EDs reported overcrowding. All ED admissions were recorded in electronic schedules including: demographic characteristics, time/date of the access, incoming triage code, diagnosis, performed procedures, discharge, time/date of discharge. A backward multivariable logistic regression model was used to estimate relationships between investigated variables and ED pattern mortality. Results: A total of 416,299 ED admissions were analyzed. During the overcrowded period there was an increase in patients admissions (+32 patients per day, p = 0.0079) with a statistically significant rise of critical patients (+1.7% yellow codes and +0.7% red codes, p < 0.001) and older subjects (+1.4% patients aged 75 or more years, p < 0.001). Moreover, there were statistically significant increases in waiting times and in length of visits, a higher percentage of patients who were hospitalized (13.3% vs. 12.2%, p < 0.001), left ED (4.46% vs. 4.15%, p < 0.001) and died (0.27% vs. 0.17%, p < 0.0001). This latter result maintained a marginal statistical significance (OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.98–1.38, p = 0.075) after adjustment for confounding. Conclusion: Our study highlights that ED crowding can determine measurable worsening in ED services and patient outcomes as mortality, waiting times, lengths of stay, percentage of abandonment without being seen and, probably, costs. Thus, address ED crowding has to be considered an important public health priority requiring policymakers involvement.

Aims: In Italy, incidence rates of thyroid cancer (TC) are among the highest world- wide with substantial intracountry heterogeneity. The aim of the study was to examine time trends of TC incidence in Italy and to estimate the proportion of TC cases potentially attribut- able to overdiagnosis. Methods: Data on TC cases reported to Italian cancer registries during 1998e2012 aged

Pulmonary Embolism (PE) incidence increases with age. Data on mortality and prognosis in elderly patients with suspected PE are lacking. (1) To assess 30- and 90-day mortality in subjects with PE from an elderly population seen in the emergency department (ED); (2) to test the prognostic accuracy of a simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) coupled to a highly sensitive cardiac Troponin T (hs-cTnT) level. A retrospective cohort study was performed, including patients evaluated in the ED of Vimercate Hospital for clinically suspected PE from 2010 to 2012. Study population: n = 470, 63.4 % women, mean age ± SD 73.06 ± 16.0 years, 40 % aged ≥80 and 77.7 % ≥65 years old, confirmed PE: 22.6 % (106 cases). Within 30 and 90 days, mortality among patients with confirmed PE was 14.2 % (8.8–22.0) and 20.8 % (16.5–41.7). In subjects aged ≥80 years, 30-day mortality was 18.9 % among patients with confirmed PE, and 12.6 % among those with PE excluded (p = 0.317). Ninety-day mortality rates were 29.7 and 19.9 %, respectively (p = 0.193). In patients with confirmed PE, Negative Predictive Value of sPESI was 94.1 % (80.3–99.3) for 30 days and 88.2 % (72.3–96.7) for 90-day mortality. Adding the hs-cTnT level to sPESI did not improve its performance. (1) In an elderly population referring to the ED with clinically suspected PE, mortality was high both in subjects with and without confirmed PE; (2) the ability of sPESI and hs-cTnT to predict PE mortality seems to be lower than reported in studies based on data from younger populations. Better risk stratification tools will be necessary to improve clinical management in this setting.

Introduction On July 10, 1976 an explosion in a factory near Seveso, Italy caused the contamination of a surrounding area with 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro-dibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). The area was divided in t...

Introduction. On July 10, 1976 a runaway reaction in a plant for the production of 2,4,5-trichlorophenol near Seveso, Italy caused the contamination with 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro-dibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)...

Rationale, aims and objectives Assuring the best standards of care – in a sustainable way – in chronic diseases as breast cancer is nowadays an important challenge for any health system. The aim of this study was to present the methodology used to define a set of quality indicators, computable from administrative data for the pathway of care of breast cancer, and its application at a population level. Method The cohort of 2007–2009 incident cases of breast cancer was identified through a network of six cancer registers in Northern Italy. Cases of sarcoma and lymphoma, patients with multiple primary cancers and those metastatic at diagnosis were excluded; 9614 women were retained for the analysis. For each indicator, the sub-cohort of women eligible for the diagnostic/therapeutic procedures was identified and calculations were performed through record linkage between the cohort and sources of health information. Data on potential available confounders or prognostic factors were also collected. Results For a few indicators, such as cyto-histological assessment before surgery (62%) and intensive follow-up (79%), deviation from recommendations was evident. Younger patients (≤50 years) more frequently needed a short term re-intervention, while older patients less frequently underwent reconstructive surgery and received palliative care. Several indicators had a great variability across hospitals. In some cases, this heterogeneity appeared to be related to the hospital size, with high-volume hospitals being more compliant to guidelines. Conclusion It is possible to evaluate the quality of cancer care delivered in clinical practice in recent years, in order to implement interventions aimed to improve adherence to international standards of care.

to present a set of indicators developed from six Local Health Authorities of the Lombardy Region to monitor the diagnostic and therapeutic pathway of breast cancer patients, applied to 2007-2009 incident cases.retrospective cohort study.all subjects with primary breast cancer, incident in the period 2007-2009, and collected by cancer registries of Milano 1, Bergamo, Cremona, Milano, Milano 2 and Monza-Brianza (5,320,272 inhabitants) were included.through the use of combined current health databases (health registry, hospitalizations, outpatient, pharmaceutical prescription and specific database for anticancer drugs), for each incident case 34 different indicators have been developed to measure the appropriateness of the procedures provided for diagnosis, treatment (surgical and medical) and follow-up. For each indicator, we analyzed the relationship with age, stage, deprivation index, type of treatment, volume of the specific procedure of the hospital where primary surgery was performed. Estimates were adjusted using multilevel regression models.12,988 incident cases, without metastatic diseases and other cancers, were included in the cohort: 62% were localized to the breast, 33% to the axillary lymph-nodes, 3% metastatic ab initio, and 2% with unknown stage. Deviations from the expected value of different magnitude depending on the type of indicator were observed: the most important differences were detected for the follow-up indicators. There was, in fact, an excess of several procedures in the first year of follow-up: 75% of the cases performed a dosage of a tumor marker, 67% an ecography or a CT scan or an MR, and 37% a bone scan. On the other hand, the access to neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatments in older women was far below the expected values.the study presents data derived from a large cohort of population cases; the set of indicators was validated by a board of oncologists. The use of indicators calculated by linking the cancer registries (that provide staging) and administrative databases allows the assessment of compliance to the guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of tumours. This experience shows that it is possible to develop a methodology, shared with clinicians, to define indicators that measure the distance between guidelines and current clinical practice in order to decrease variability, to limit inappropriateness, and to reduce unnecessary diagnostic tests for patients (and, consequently, hospitals organizational overload). In order to be sustainable and equitable, a health care system must be able to ensure implementation of protocols/procedures based exclusively on the best available scientific evidences.

OBJECTIVE--To understand whether barrier methods of contraception (BMC) and/or spermicides lower the risk of acquiring sexually transmitted disease (STD) and to quantify the protection. DESIGN--Review of published experimental studies, in vitro and in vivo evidence on the issue. SUBJECTS--We reviewed 22 papers that examined the impermeability of BMC in vitro against STD agents or the effect of spermicides, and 60 papers reporting results of epidemiological studies on the risk of STD in users of BMC. RESULTS--There was in vitro evidence that both BMC and spermicides were effective against most sexually transmissible agents. Doubts remain on the effectiveness of BMC and spermicides in normal conditions of use, particularly against human papilloma virus. Natural membrane condoms are not impermeable and pores are seen by electron microscopy. Epidemiological studies show a consistent reduction in the risk for use of condoms against gonococcal (most studies giving relative risk, RR, estimates around 0.4 to 0.6) and HIV infection (RRs between 0.3 and 0.6 in most studies). Spermicides protect women against gonorrhoea and trichomoniasis; their role against other STDs is less clear and there is some indication of an irritative effect on the vaginal mucosa that is likely to be dose-dependent. CONCLUSIONS--A large amount of evidence indicates that BMC reduce the risk of gonorrhoea and HIV transmission, but the results are--at least in quantitative terms--less consistent for other diseases. Implications for individual choices and public health approaches should relate to frequency of exposure and severity of the disease too.

We assessed prevalence and risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in 637 patients (506 men, 131 women; median age 30 years, range 17-64) attending between September 1988 and July 1989 for the first time two sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics in Northern Italy, for suspected or STD treatment. A total of 44 subjects (6.9%, 95% confidence interval, (Cl): 4.9-8.9) were seropositive for HIV antibodies. The prevalence of HIV infection decreased with age, from 9% in patients aged 24 years or less to 3% in those aged 45 years or more (chi 21 trend 4.97, p less than 0.05). Women tended to have a lower prevalence of infection than men (5.3% versus 7.3%) but this was not statistically significant. Compared with men reporting no homosexual intercourse, HIV infection risk was about 50% higher in those reporting bisexual intercourse (age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.5,95% Cl: 0.6-3.6) and about fourfold in those reporting only homosexual intercourse (OR 3.8, 95% Cl: 1.7-8.5). No clear trend in risk was observed with number of sexual partners both in men and in women. Intravenous drug users had an increased risk of HIV infection; compared with non-users, the OR was 5.6 (95% Cl: 3.0-10.5) in users, and the point estimates increased with frequency of use, from 3.3 (95% Cl: 0.8-11.5) in occasional users to 6.4 (95% Cl: 3.2-12.8) in regular users. The risk of HIV infection was 2.2 (95% Cl: 1.1-4.3) in patients reporting a history of STD, and 1.6 (95% Cl: 0.8-3.3) in those reporting syphilis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The Seveso accident in 1976 caused a large, populated area north of Milan, Italy, to be contaminated by 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). In this study, the authors followed up the exposed population for chronic effects; this paper reports the results of the mortality follow-up extension for 1997-2001. The study cohort includes 278,108 subjects resident at the time of the accident or immigrating/born in the 10 years thereafter in three contaminated zones with decreasing TCDD soil levels (zone A, very high; zone B, high; zone R, low) and in a reference territory comprising surrounding, noncontaminated municipalities. Vital status and cause-of-death ascertainment were 99% complete. Adjusted rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by using Poisson regression. Results confirmed previous findings of excesses of lymphatic and hematopoietic tissue neoplasms in zones A (six deaths; rate ratio = 2.23, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 4.97) and B (28 deaths; rate ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.09, 2.33). These zones also showed increased mortality from circulatory diseases in the first years after the accident, from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and from diabetes mellitus among females. A toxic and carcinogenic risk to humans after high TCDD exposure is supported by the results of this study.

In a survey of clinical trials concerning the efficacy of short-contact therapy with anthralin in psoriasis vulgaris, focusing principally on methodologic issues, twenty-four papers published between January 1982 and December 1989, in English, French, and Italian, were selected. Nine of 24 papers reported on more than one trial, giving a total of 37 clinical trials to be evaluated. A great heterogeneity was evident in many aspects of the design and conduct of these trials, making pooling of results impossible. Most trials suffered from flaws in general methodologic aspects such as randomization and blinding. Limitations in general applicability of results were discussed with reference to the popular use of self-control design and selection of composite indexes (e.g., PASI) as an outcome variable. Published trials are not a reliable guide to clinical decisions concerning short-contact therapy, and some methodologic observations we made could be of general interest in designing clinical trials of psoriasis.

REPORT OF A CASE A 60-year-old woman was admitted in May 1990 complaining of recurrent painful erythema on her left foot. The lesions had first appeared about 1 year before presentation. Initially, the erythema was limited to the big toe. During the subsequent months, the lesions extended to other toes on the left foot, which acquired a persistent bluish-red hue. Episodes of erythema were accompanied by sensation of burning and pain. Characteristically, the pain was triggered by warming and was relieved by cooling. For this reason, the woman used to sleep with her legs outside of the bed linens. The patient had a duodenal peptic ulcer 8 years before and had been taking maintenance doses of ranitidine (150 mg/d) for several months. Her history was otherwise uninformative. On physical examination, the big and the fourth toes of the left foot had a mottled blue-red discoloration and were slightly warmer than

REPORT OF A CASE A 64-year-old woman was referred to our department in August 1988 because of a photosensitive figurate erythema on the upper aspect of her trunk of 2 months' duration. The year before, the patient had reported a similar eruption lasting a few weeks and disappearing after a short course of topical corticosteroid therapy. The patient had been hypertensive since the age of 45 years and had been taking indapamide and penbutolol for 2 years. Her medical history was otherwise negative. On physical examination, the lesions were found to be small, confluent, edematous erythematous papules and annular rings with an area of central grayish hypopigmentation. Slight surface scale and telangiectasias were also observed (Figs 1 and 2). Lesions involved the neck, the shoulders, the upper aspect of the back, the extensor aspect of the arms, and the dorsal aspect of the hands. They were painless and nonpruritic. On