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Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two-parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain-hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude-longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

GeoGateway (http://geo-gateway.org) is a web-based interface for analysis and modeling of geodetic imaging data and to support response to related disasters. Geodetic imaging data product currently supported by GeoGateway include Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) daily position time series and derived velocities and displacements and airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA's UAVSAR platform. GeoGateway allows users to layer data products in a web map interface and extract information from various tools. Extracted products can be downloaded for further analysis. GeoGateway includes overlays of California fault traces, seismicity from user selected search parameters, and user supplied map files. GeoGateway also provides earthquake nowcasts and hazard maps as well as products created for related response to natural disasters. A user guide is present in the GeoGateway interface. The GeoGateway development team is also growing the user base through workshops, webinars, and video tutorials. GeoGateway is used in the classroom and for research by experts and non-experts including by students.

We use UAVSAR interferograms to characterize fault slip, triggered by the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake on the 1 San Andreas Fault in the Coachella Valley providing comprehensive maps of short-term geodetic surface deformation that complement in situ measurements. Creepmeters and geological mapping of fault offsets on Durmid Hill recorded 4 and 8 mm of average triggered slip respectively on the fault, in contrast to radar views that reveal significant off-fault dextral deformation averaging 20 mm. Unlike slip in previous triggered slip events on the southernmost San Andreas fault, dextral shear in 2010 is not confined to transpressional hills in the Coachella valley. Edge detection and gradient estimation applied to the 50-m-sampled interferogram data identify the location (to 20 m) and local strike (to

We describe the formulation and application of an integrated general regional seismic loss assessment (RSLA) method for buildings in seismic regions. An efficient method for RSLA is valuable for engineers involved in city planning, risk management, and insurance dealings. In contrast to previously reported methods, the framework presented herein is hazard-based and utilizes a regional rapid seismic hazard deaggregation tool that allows regional assessment to be conducted more efficiently. The proposed technique is implemented as an example to assess general regional seismic loss in Los Angeles County for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

A primary step toward assessing the time and size of future earthquakes is identifying earthquake recurrence patterns in the seismic record. The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied active faults in the world. However, there is no unequivocal interpretation of paleoseismic data to determine the timing and rupture extent of the earthquakes that occurred prior to the historical 1857 and 1906 ruptures. The penultimate earthquake is the least well-dated earthquake along the Cholame, Carrizo, and Big Bend sections of the SAF. The main reason for this poor determination is because the past few hundred years have seen large natural fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. These fluctuations mean that a single radiocarbon date may yield a calibrated age consisting of several possible age ranges. At sites along frequently rupturing faults with historical ruptures, such as the SAF and the North Anatolian fault in Turkey, determining the incision age of channels displaced only by the most recent earthquake can place a tighter minimum limit on the possible age range of the penultimate earthquake. In our study, we dated five sandy fill units with the post-infrared infrared-stimulated luminescence method on single feldspar grains of channel Sieh 31 in the Carrizo Plain. The data indicate the channel Sieh 31, offset ~6 m during the 1857 earthquake, incised before ~1740 ± 30 C.E. (1σ). This new result trims the age constraint of the penultimate earthquake that ruptured the Carrizo section of the SAF determined at the nearby Bidart Fan site from 1640-1857 to 1631-1745 C.E., tightening the age constraint by nearly 80 yr. The revised mean recurrence interval for surface rupturing earthquakes along the Carrizo section of the south-central SAF is 117 yr (95% confidence interval 62-255 yr). This approach can improve paleoearthquake age and slip-per-earthquake constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoseismological data constrain the age, location, and associated magnitude of past surface-rupturing earthquakes; these are critical parameters for developing and testing fault behavior models and characterizing seismic hazard. We present new earthquake evidence and radiocarbon analyses that refine the chronology of the six most recent earthquakes that ruptured the south-central San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain (California, United States) at the Bidart Fan site. Modeled 95 percentile ranges of the earthquakes prior to the A.D. 1857 earthquake are A.D. 1631-1823, 1580-1640, 1510-1612, 1450-1475, and 1360-1452. The average time interval between the last six earthquakes that ruptured the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain is 88 [+ or -] 41 yr. This is less than the time since the most recent A.D. 1857 earthquake, less than all reported average intervals of prehistoric earthquakes along the entire San Andreas fault, and significantly shorter than the 235 yr average used in recent seismic hazard evaluations. The new chronological data combined with recent slip studies imply that the magnitudes of the earthquakes that ruptured the southern San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain since ca. A.D. 1360 were variable, and suggest that the widely held view of rare but great surface rupturing earthquakes along this portion of the southern San Andreas fault should be reevaluated. doi: 10.1130/G30995.1

Uninhabited aerial vehicle synthetic aperture radar (UAVSAR) observations 2009–2017 of the Yuha Desert area and Global Positioning System (GPS) time series encompassing the region reveal a northward migrating pattern of deformation following the 4 April 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah (EMC) earthquake. The north end of the EMC rupture exhibits an asymmetric pattern of deformation that is substantial and smooth northeast of the rupture and limited but with surface fracturing slip northwest. The earthquake triggered ~1 cm of surface coseismic slip at the Yuha fault, which continued to slip postseismically. 2.5 cm of Yuha fault slip occurred by the time of the 15 June 2010 Mw5.7 Ocotillo aftershock and 5 cm of slip occurred by 2017 following a logarithmic afterslip decay 16‐day timescale. The Ocotillo aftershock triggered 1.4 cm of slip on a northwest trend extending to the Elsinore fault and by 7 years after the EMC earthquake 2.4 cm of slip had accumulated with a distribution following an afterslip function with a 16‐day timescale consistent with other earthquakes and a rate strengthening upper crustal sedimentary layer. GPS data show broad coseismic uplift of the Salton Trough and delayed postseismic motion that may be indicative of fluid migration there and subsidence west of the rupture extension, which continues following the earthquake. The data indicate that the Elsinore, Laguna Salada, and EMC ruptures are part of the same fault system. The results also suggest that north‐south shortening and east‐west extension across the region drove fracture advancing step tectonics north of the EMC earthquake rupture. Plain Language Summary: Airborne radar and Global Positioning System observations of the Yuha Desert and Salton Trough suggest that the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor ‐ Cucapah earthquake rupture, the Laguna Salada fault in Baja California, Mexico, and the Elsinore fault in California are part of the same fault system. The M5.7 Ocotillo aftershock links these faults and is a result of stress propagation from afterslip on the El Mayor ‐ Cucapah rupture. Further east in the Salton Trough fluid migration also contributes to the observed results. Key Points: The Mw5.7 Ocotillo aftershock of the El Mayor‐Cucapah earthquake extended north from a mainshock surface fracture to the Elsinore faultPostseismic slip on the Yuha fault and Ocotillo section and uplift in the Salton Trough continued for several years following the eventSalton Trough spreading causes left slip on the Yuha fault resulting in a left step that links the Laguna Salada and Elsinore faults [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Topographic maps produced from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data are useful for paleoseismic and neotectonic research because they provide submeter representation of faulting-related surface features. Offset measurements of geomorphic features, made in the field or on a remotely sensed imagery, commonly assume a straight or smooth (i.e., undeflected) pre-earthquake geometry. Here, we present results from investigation of an ~20 cm deep and > 5 m wide swale with a sharp bend along the San Andreas fault (SAF) at the Bidart fan site in the Carrizo Plain, California. From analysis of LiDAR topography images and field measurements, the swale was initially interpreted as a channel tectonically offset ~4.7 m. Our observations from exposures in four backhoe excavations and 25 hand-dug trenchettes show that even though a shaip bend in the swale coincides with the trace of the A.D. 1857 fault rupture, the swale formed after the 1857 earthquake and was not tectonically offset. Subtle fractures observed within a surficial gravel unit overlying the 1857 rupture trace are similar to fractures previously documented at the Phelan fan and LY4 paleoseismic sites 3 and 35 km northwest of Bidart fan, respectively. Collectively, the fractures suggest that a post-1857 moderate-magnitude earthquake caused ground cracking in the Carrizo and Cholame stretches of the SAF. Our observations emphasize the importance of excavation at key locations to validate remote and ground-based measurements, and we advocate more geomorphic characterization for each site if excavation is not possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The great Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857, with an ~350-km-long surface rupture, was the most recent major earthquake along the south-central San Andreas fault (SAF). Prior reconstruction of its surface-slip distribution and reconstruction of preceding earthquakes along the 1857 rupture trace have contributed to formulation of the characteristic earthquake (CEM) and uniform-slip models (USM) for earthquake recurrence that find wide application in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting. We used the high-resolution B4 light detection and ranging (LiDAR) topographic data set-sufficient for depiction of meter-scale tectonic landforms-to reevaluate the distribution of surface displacement along the 1857 rupture trace. We present ~450 offset measurements with displacements below 60 m, increasing observation density relative to previous studies by a factor of 2. Our results show that the 1857 earthquake had overall an average displacement below 3.5 m with 4-6 m released along the northwestern half of the rupture. Its along-fault slip distribution is smooth at > 10-km length scales. At < 1-km length scales, displacement distribution exhibits high-frequency fluctuation of ± 1 m or more, attributable to rupture variation and measurement uncertainty. In contrast to prior interpretations of the 1857 event, we find no evidence for fault segmentation expressed in the surface-slip distribution. The total moment in the earthquake was 4.0 × 1020 N·m (~28% less than prior estimates) assuming a 10-km rupture depth and a 30-GPa shear modulus. Reconstruction of pre-1857 earthquakes is impeded by an exponential decrease in observation density with increasing displacement amount. Offset observation density soon reaches a level where only tentative and nonunique reconstructions are permitted. The results of this study question prior surface-slip reconstructions of pre-1857 rupture(s) that were based on a distinctly lower number of offset observations, challenging the applicability of the aforementioned earthquake recurrence models to explain SAF rupture behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)- West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The groundmotion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid groundmotion model resulted in a 2-7% reduction in the mean and a 10-36% reduction in the 5th-95th fractile uncertainty of the groundmotion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]