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Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a straightforward comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM, labeled AWI-ESM-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model well reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and sea water, and captures their major differences from the MH condition. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH-PI difference in δ18Op to the MH-PI difference in surface air temperature is reasonable over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North Africa monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset date of MH West Africa summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations of precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find obvious difference between the MH and PI in terms of the mean onset date of WASM.

In previous model-data comparisons, the centennial to millennial scale variance of local climate (e.g., SST) reconstructed from proxies was significantly higher than that simulated by climate models. One possible explanation is the lack of long-term feedback mechanisms, e.g. from the representation of changes in ice-sheets in models. Additionally, proxy records are short, and sparse, and the climate signal is significantly modified during the processes of encoding, archiving, and recovery.Here we introduce new methods to infer the climate variability of the past from proxy data and compare them to new transient model simulations of the last deglaciation. This will allow us to estimate the amplitude of climate variability and to evaluate whether climate models are capable of capturing changes in climate variability between different climate states (e.g. glacial vs. interglacial periods), which is also relevant for the accuracy of future projections. We compare the variability of marine d18O reconstructed from proxies with that simulated by a state-of-the-art Earth System Model.From the proxy side, our analysis is based on a new dataset of marine oxygen isotope data from planktonic foraminifera compiled for the PALMOD project. We use new methods to first calculate power-spectra for the LGM, transition and Holocene and then to correct these spectra by fitting a Bayesian model describing the effects of bioturbation and measurement error on the reconstructed climate signal. From the model side we use marine d18O variability calculated using temperature and salinity from transient model simulations of the last deglaciation, performed within the PALMOD project, that include changes in the ice sheets.This combination of new data and methods will allow us to investigate the effect of different ice-sheet configurations and physical parametrizations in the model on their ability to characterise long-timescale climate variability and its dependence on climate state.

The climate of the past two thousand years (2k) provides context for current and future changes, and as such is vital for developing our understanding of the modern climate system. Building on previous phases of the PAGES 2k network, Phase 4 of the PAGES 2k Network paves the way for a new level of understanding of the global water cycle, including enhanced science-policy integration. Previous PAGES 2k network phases emphasised temperature reconstructions, fundamentally improving our understanding of global climate changes over the Common Era. These reconstructions received widespread recognition and were featured in the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report. Integration of this data with state-of-the-art Earth systems models, proxy system models and data assimilation yielded a more comprehensive understanding of the associated physical drivers and climate dynamics. Phase 4 challenges our community to turn its focus towards hydroclimate. Our aim is to reconstruct hydroclimatic variability over the Common Era, from local to global spatial scales, at sub-annual to multi-centennial time scales, developing a process-level understanding of past hydroclimate events and variability. Our multi-faceted approach includes (1) developing new hydroclimate syntheses that are well-suited for data-model comparisons, (2) improving the interoperability and scope of existing data and model products, and (3) facilitating the translation of our science into evidence-based policy outcomes. In this presentation, we report on our activities and progress to date, particularly highlighting the early stages of our data synthesis efforts.

Paleoclimate proxy records from the North Atlantic region reveal substantially greater multi-centennial temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the current interglacial. As there was no obvious change in external forcing, causes for the increased variability remain unknown. Here we provide a mechanism for enhanced multi-centennial North Atlantic climate variability during the LGM based on experiments with the coupled climate model CESM. The model simulates an internal mode of multi-centennial variability, which is associated with variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In accordance with high-resolution proxy records from the glacial North Atlantic, this mode induces highest surface temperature variability in subpolar and mid latitudes and almost no variance in low latitudes. Greenland surface air temperature varies by up to 4°C, which is in line with multi-centennial variability reconstructed from ice cores. We show that this mode is based on a salt-oscillator mechanism and emerges only under full LGM climate forcing. Moderate deviations from full-glacial boundary conditions lead to its disappearance. We further argue that the multi-centennial mode has to be distinguished from millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations.

With ongoing warming and sea ice loss, the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas as a habitat for pelagic calcifiers are changing, possibly resulting in modifications of the regional carbonate cycle and the composition of the seafloor sediment. A substantial part of the pelagic carbonate production in the Arctic is due to the calcification of the dominant planktonic foraminifera species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma. To quantify carbonate production and loss in the upper water layer by this important Arctic calcifier, we compile and analyse data from vertical profiles in the upper water column of shell number concentration, sizes and weights of this species across the Arctic region during summer. Our data are inconclusive on whether the species performs ontogenetic vertical migration throughout its life cycle or whether individual specimens calcify at a fixed depth within the vertical habitat. The base of the productive zone of the species is on average located below 100 m and at maximum at 300 m and is regionally highly variable. The calcite flux immediately below the productive zone (export flux) is on average 8 mg CaCO3 m−2 d−1, and we observe that this flux is attenuated until at least 300 m below the base of the productive zone by a mean rate of 6.6 % per 100 m. Regionally, the summer export flux of N. pachyderma calcite varies by more than 2 orders of magnitude, and the estimated mean export flux below the twilight zone is sufficient to account for about a quarter of the total pelagic carbonate flux in the region. These results indicate that estimates of the Arctic pelagic carbonate budget will have to account for large regional differences in the export flux of the major pelagic calcifiers and confirm that substantial attenuation of the export flux occurs in the twilight zone.

Marine zooplankton time series are crucial to understand the dynamics of pelagic ecosystems. However, most observational time series are only a few decades long, which limits our understanding of long-term zooplankton dynamics, renders attribution of observed trends to global change ambiguous, and hampers prediction of future response to environmental change. Planktonic foraminifera are calcifying marine zooplankton that have the unique potential to substantially extend our view on plankton dynamics because their skeletal remains are preserved for millions of years in deep-sea sediments. Thus, linking sedimentary and modern time series offers great potential to study zooplankton dynamics across time scales not accessible by direct observations. However, this link is rarely made and the potential of planktonic foraminifera for advancing our understanding of zooplankton dynamics remains underexploited. This underutilization of this potential to bridge time scales is mainly because of the lack of collaboration between biologists, who have mostly focused on other (zoo)plankton, and micropalaeontologists, who have focussed too narrowly on fossil foraminifera. With this food for thought article, we aim to highlight the unique potential of planktonic foraminifera to bridge the gap between biology and geology. We strongly believe that such collaboration has large benefits to both scientific communities.

Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).

The Last Glacial Maximum (23,000 – 19,000 years ago; LGM) is the most recent time when Earth’s climate was fundamentally different from today. The LGM hence remains a prime target to evaluate climate models outside current boundary conditions. Evaluation of paleoclimate simulations is usually done using proxy-based reconstructions. However, such reconstructions are indirect and associated with marked uncertainty, which often renders model-data comparison equivocal. Here we take a different approach and use macro-ecological patterns preserved in fossil marine zooplankton to evaluate simulations of LGM near-surface ocean temperature. We utilise the distance-decay pattern in planktonic foraminifera to evaluate modelled temperature gradients. Distance decay emerges because of differences in habitat preferences among species that cause the compositional similarity between assemblages to decrease the further apart they are from each other in environmental space. Distance decay is a fundamental concept in ecology and is observed in many different taxa and ecosystems, including planktonic foraminifera that show a monotonous decrease in similarity with increasing difference in temperature. Because the ecological niches of planktonic foraminifera are unlikely to have changed since the LGM, the distance-decay relationship based on simulated LGM temperatures and LGM assemblages should in principle be identical to the modern distance decay pattern. Thus we can use fossil planktonic foraminifera species assemblages to evaluate climate model simulations based on ecological principles. Our analysis is based on an extended new LGM planktonic foraminifera database (2,085 assemblages from 647 unique sites) and a suite of 10 simulations from state-of-the-art climate models (PMIP3 and 4). We find markedly different planktonic foraminifera distributions during the LGM, primarily due to the equatorward expansion of polar assemblages at the expense of transitional assemblages. The distance-decay pattern that emerges when the LGM assemblages are combined with simulated ocean temperatures is different from the modern pattern. All simulations suggest large thermal gradients between regions where the planktonic foraminifera indicate no, or only weak, gradients. This pattern arises from the pronounced shift to polar species assemblages in the North Atlantic where the simulations predict only moderate cooling. In general, the models predict spatially rather uniform cooling, whereas the microfossil evidence suggests more pronounced regional differences in the temperature change. The difference between reconstructions and the simulations reaches up to 10 K in the North Atlantic. Importantly, simulations with a reduced AMOC and hence lower North Atlantic near sea surface temperatures, yield a distance-decay pattern that is much more similar to the modern pattern. The planktonic foraminifera assemblages thus question the view of the LGM ocean as an equilibrium response to external forcing.

Understanding the climate of the past two millennia (2k) remains vital for developing our wider comprehension of the climate system, including the nature and scale of recent and future anthropogenic change. Phase 4 of the PAGES 2k network will build on previous phases and take us to a new level of understanding and science-policy integration.During previous phases, PAGES 2k members compiled global networks of proxy measurements, extending records beyond the instrumental period by more than an order of magnitude, reconstructing past climate and developing new knowledge of past variability and processes. Through data-model integration with state-of-the-art Earth systems models, proxy system modelling and data assimilation, we took key steps towards a more comprehensive understanding of climate dynamics.Phase 4 will take us even further, challenging our community to turn its focus primarily towards the hydroclimate of the Common Era: performing new reconstructions and improving the interoperability, extent and scope of our data and model products. In doing so, we also seek to facilitate the translation of our science into evidence-based policy outcomes. Our overarching aim is to reconstruct hydroclimate variability over the Common Era from local to global spatial scales, at sub-annual to multi-centennial time scales. We propose to achieve this through new community-led data curation efforts and the development of new data-driven tools and practices to maximise the interoperability of convenient, efficient and widespread model/data products. We will aim for a process-level understanding of past hydroclimate events and variability by evaluating and constraining Earth system models and through data assimilation.Our coordination team places a strong emphasis on respect and inclusion, aiming to foster a diverse and equitable community. Through a ‘hub and spoke’ structure, our team will provide a facilitation, coordination and support role (the hub) for Pages 2k working groups (the spokes). We are actively seeking participation of those engaging in climate policy and climate services. Welcome to Phase 4! We warmly invite your collaborations and contributions!

Planktonic foraminifera, marine protists and calcifiers, are globally responsible for about one quarter of the global pelagic calcite flux, but their contribution to it in the subarctic and Arctic realm has not been fully resolved. With ongoing warming and sea ice loss, the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas are becoming more hospitable to pelagic calcifiers like planktonic foraminifera, resulting in modifications of the regional carbonate cycle and the composition of the seafloor sediment. To quantify planktonic foraminifera Arctic calcite production and loss in the upper water layer, we compile and analyze data on the dominant planktonic foraminifera species of the Arctic realm, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, from vertical profiles in the upper water column. Using summertime observations of shell concentrations, sizes and weights of this species across the Arctic, we calculate the base of the productive zone of N. pachyderma to be regionally highly variable, on average located at 125 m, at maximum at 300 m. The calcite flux immediately below the productive zone (production flux) is on average 8 mg CaCO3 m-2 d-1, and we observe that this flux is attenuated until at least 300 m below the base of the productive zone. Across the Arctic realm, the summer production flux of N. pachyderma calcite varies by more than two orders of magnitude and the estimated mean export flux below the twilight zone is sufficient to account for about a quarter of the total pelagic carbonate flux in the region. These results indicate that estimates of the Arctic pelagic carbonate budget will have to account for large regional differences in production flux of the major pelagic calcifiers and confirm that substantial attenuation of the production flux occurs in the twilight zone.

An increasing number of climate model simulations is becoming available for the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. Assessing the simulations’ reliability requires benchmarking against environmental proxy records. To date, no established method exists to compare these two data sources in space and time over a period with changing background conditions. Here, we develop a new algorithm to rank simulations according to their deviation from reconstructed magnitudes and temporal patterns of orbital- as well as millennial-scale temperature variations. The use of proxy forward modeling avoids the need to reconstruct gridded or regional mean temperatures from sparse and uncertain proxy data. First, we test the reliability and robustness of our algorithm in idealized experiments with prescribed deglacial temperature histories. We quantify the influence of limited temporal resolution, chronological uncertainties, and non-climatic processes by constructing noisy pseudo-proxies. While model-data comparison results become less reliable with increasing uncertainties, we find that the algorithm discriminates well between simulations under realistic non-climatic noise levels. To obtain reliable and robust rankings, we advise spatial averaging of the results for individual proxy records. Second, we demonstrate our method by quantifying the deviations between an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations and a global compilation of sea surface temperature reconstructions. The ranking of the simulations differs substantially between the considered regions and timescales. We attribute this diversity in the rankings to more regionally confined temperature variations in reconstructions than in simulations, which could be the result of uncertainties in boundary conditions, shortcomings in models, or regionally varying characteristics of reconstructions such as recording seasons and depths. Future work towards disentangling these potential reasons can leverage the flexible design of our algorithm and its demonstrated ability to identify varying levels of model-data agreement.

Biodiversity is expected to change in response to future global warming. However, it is difficult to predict how species will track the ongoing climate change. Here we use the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera to assess how biodiversity responded to climate change with a magnitude comparable to future anthropogenic warming. We compiled time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages, covering the time from the last ice age across the deglaciation to the current warm period. Planktonic foraminifera assemblages shifted immediately when temperature began to rise at the end of the last ice age and continued to change until approximately 5,000 years ago, even though global temperature remained relatively stable during the last 11,000 years. The biotic response was largest in the mid latitudes and dominated by range expansion, which resulted in the emergence of new assemblages without analogues in the glacial ocean. Our results indicate that the plankton response to global warming was spatially heterogeneous and did not track temperature change uniformly over the past 24,000 years. Climate change led to the establishment of new assemblages and possibly new ecological interactions, which suggests that current anthropogenic warming may lead to new, different plankton community composition.

Individual foraminifera analysis (IFA) holds promise to reconstruct seasonal to interannual oceanographic variability. Even though planktonic foraminifera are reliable recorders of environmental conditions on a population level, whether they also are on the level of individuals is unknown. Yet, one of the main assumptions underlying IFA is that each specimen records ocean conditions with negligible noise. Here we test this assumption using stable isotope data measured on groups of four shells of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma from a 16–19 d resolution sediment trap time series from the subpolar North Atlantic. We find a within-sample variability of 0.11 ‰ and 0.10 ‰ for δ18O and δ13C respectively that shows no seasonal pattern and exceeds water column variability in spring when conditions are homogeneous down to hundreds of metres. We assess the possible effect of life cycle characteristics and delay due to settling on foraminifera δ18O variability with simulations using temperature and δ18Oseawater as input. These simulations indicate that the observed δ18O variability can only partially be explained by environmental variability. Individual N. pachyderma are thus imperfect recorders of temperature and δ18Oseawater. Based on these simulations, we estimate the excess noise on δ18O to be 0.11±0.06 ‰. The origin and nature of the recording imprecision require further work, but our analyses highlight the need to take such excess noise into account when interpreting the geochemical variability among individual foraminifera.

Diurnal vertical migration (DVM) is a widespread phenomenon in the upper ocean, but it remains unclear to what degree it also involves passively transported micro- and meso-zooplankton. These organisms are difficult to monitor by in situ sensing and observations from discrete samples are often inconclusive. Prime examples of such ambiguity are planktonic foraminifera, where contradictory evidence for DVM continues to cast doubt on the stability of species vertical habitats, which introduces uncertainties in geochemical proxy interpretation. To provide a robust answer, we carried out highly replicated randomized sampling with 41 vertically resolved plankton net hauls taken within 26 hours in a confined area of 400 km2 in the tropical North Atlantic, where DVM in larger plankton occurs. Manual enumeration of planktonic foraminifera cell density consistently reveals the highest total cell concentrations in the surface mixed layer (top 50 m) and analysis of cell density in seven individual species representing different shell sizes, life strategies and presumed depth habitats reveals consistent vertical habitats not changing over the 26 hours sampling period. These observations robustly reject the existence of DVM in planktonic foraminifera in a setting where DVM occurs in other organisms.

The development of larger and longer lasting northern hemisphere ice sheets during the mid‐Pleistocene Transition (MPT) coincided with global cooling. Here, we show that surface waters of the north‐eastern Atlantic actually warmed across this interval (∼1.2–0.8 Ma), which we argue reflects an increase in the north‐eastward transport of heat and moisture via the North Atlantic Current (NAC) into the Nordic Seas (the Atlantic Inflow). We suggest that simultaneous cooling and warming along the north‐western and south‐eastern margins (respectively) of the NAC during Marine Isotope Stage 28 (∼995 ka) reflected the increasing persistence of northern ice sheets as Atlantic Inflow increased. This resulted in a diachronous shift from ∼40 to ∼100 kyr cyclicity across the North East (NE) Atlantic as the growing influence of northern ice sheets spread southwards; to the north‐west of the NAC the first “100 kyr” cycle preceded Termination 12 (∼960 ka), while on the south‐eastern margin of the NAC the transition occurred ∼100 kyr later. Exploratory climate model simulations suggest that increasing Atlantic Inflow at this time could have accelerated ice sheet growth because pre‐existing moderately sized ice sheets allowed the positive effect of increasing precipitation to outpace melting. In addition, we propose that the dependence of post‐MPT ice sheets on moisture transport via the Atlantic Inflow may ultimately contribute to their apparent vulnerability to insolation forcing once a critical size threshold is crossed and high latitude ice sheets become starved of a vital moisture source.

Stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) of planktonic foraminifera are one of the most used tools to reconstruct environmental conditions of the water column. Since different species live and calcify at different depths in the water column, the δ18O of sedimentary foraminifera reflects to a large degree the vertical habitat and interspecies δ18O differences and can thus potentially provide information on the vertical structure of the water column. To fully unlock the potential of foraminifera as recorders of past surface water properties, it is necessary to understand how and under what conditions the environmental signal is incorporated into the calcite shells of individual species. Deep-dwelling species play a particularly important role in this context, since their calcification depth reaches below the surface mixed layer. Here we report δ18O measurements made on four deep-dwelling Globorotalia species collected with stratified plankton tows in the Eastern North Atlantic. Size and crust effects on the δ18O signal were evaluated showing that a larger size increases the δ18O of Globorotalia inflata and Globorotalia hirsuta, and a crust effect is reflected in a higher δ18O in Globorotalia truncatulinoides. The great majority of the δ18O values can be explained without invoking disequilibrium calcification. When interpreted in this way the data imply depth-integrated calcification with progressive addition of calcite with depth to about 300 m for G. inflata and to about 500 m for G. hirsuta. In Globorotalia scitula, despite a strong subsurface maximum in abundance, the vertical δ18O profile is flat and appears dominated by a surface layer signal. In G. truncatulinoides, the δ18O profile follows equilibrium for each depth, implying a constant habitat during growth at each depth layer. The δ18O values are more consistent with the predictions of the Shackleton (1974) paleotemperature equation, except in G. scitula, which shows values more consistent with the Kim and O’Neil (1997) prediction. In all cases, we observe a difference between the level where most of the specimens were present and the depth where most of their shell appears to calcify.

Global mean surface temperature is a fundamental measure for climate evolution in both past and present and a key quantity to evaluate climate simulations. However, for paleoclimate periods, its calculation hinges on proxy data distributed sparsely and inhomogeneously in both space and time. Thus, large sets of different proxy records need to be combined in order to obtain global mean temperature reconstructions, but there is no widely accepted method to perform this task. Building on the work of [1], we suggest and evaluate an algorithm to reconstruct spatially averaged surface temperatures on centennial to orbital timescales. As the most abundant archive for continuous temperature reconstructions, we focus on marine sediment records as input data. Our implementation is applicable to any compilation of sea-surface temperature reconstructions and capable of calculating global, hemispherical and regional temperature. Major steps of the reconstruction algorithm are interpolation to a common timescale, zonal normalization and calculation of spatially weighted sums, including uncertainty propagation via Monte Carlo methods. We assess the applicability of the algorithm by employing it to the PalMod130k marine palaeoclimate data synthesis [2] and to pseudo-proxy data generated from transient simulations of the last glacial cycle. Our results suggest that the algorithm is capable of calculating average temperatures mostly consistent with expectations, however capturing centennial-scale variability is limited due to the low spatio-temporal distribution of the input data. This underlines the importance of both increasing the amount, resolution and age control of proxy data as well as extending the algorithm such that it also incorporates other types of paleoclimate archives. References:[1] C. W. Snyder, “Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years,” Nature, vol. 538, no. 7624, pp. 226–228, 2016[2] L. Jonkers, O. Cartapanis, M. Langner, N. McKay, S. Mulitza, A. Strack, and M. Kucera, “Integrating palaeoclimate time series with rich metadata for uncertainty modelling: Strategy and documentation of the PALMOD 130k marine palaeoclimate data synthesis,” Earth System Science Data, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 1053–1081, 2020

The increasing number of Earth system model simulations that try to simulate the climate during the last deglaciation (ca 20 to 10 thousand years ago) creates a demand for benchmarking against environmental proxy records synthesized for the same time period. Comparing these two data sources over a period with changing background conditions requires new methods for model-data comparison that incorporate multiple types and sources of uncertainty. Natural archives of past reality are distributed sparsely and non-uniformly in space and time. Signals that can be obtained are in addition perturbed by uncertainties related to dating, the relationship between the proxy sensor and environmental fields, the archive build-up, and measurement. On the other hand, paleoclimate simulations are four-dimensional, complete, and physically consistent representations of the climate. However, they are subject to errors due to model inadequacies and sensitivity to the forcing protocol, and will not reproduce any particular history of unforced variability. We present a method for probabilistic, multivariate quantification of the deviation between paleo-data and paleoclimate simulations that draws on the strengths of both sources of information and accounts for the aforementioned uncertainties. We compare the shape and magnitude of orbital- and millennial-scale temperature fluctuations during the last deglaciation and compute metrics of regional and global model-data mismatches. We test our algorithm with an ensemble of published simulations of the deglaciation and simulations from the ongoing PalMod project, which aims at the simulation of the last glacial cycle with comprehensive Earth system models. These are evaluated against a compilation of temperature reconstructions from multiple archives. Our work aims for a standardized model-data comparison workflow that will be used in PalMod. This workflow can be extended subsequently with additional proxy data, new simulations, and improved representations of proxy uncertainties.

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format. Fil: Kaufman, Darrell. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: McKay, Nicholas. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Routson, Cody. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Erb, Michael. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Davis, Basil. University Of Lausanne; Suiza Fil: Heiri, Oliver. University Of Basel; Suiza Fil: Jaccard, Samuel. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Tierney, Jessica. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Dätwyler, Christoph. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Axford, Yarrow. Northwestern University; Estados Unidos Fil: Brussel, Thomas. University of Utah; Estados Unidos Fil: Cartapanis, Olivier. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Chase, Brian. Universite de Montpellier; Francia Fil: Dawson, Andria. Mount Royal University; Canadá Fil: de Vernal, Anne. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá Fil: Engels, Stefan. University of London; Reino Unido Fil: Jonkers, Lukas. University Of Bremen; Alemania Fil: Marsicek, Jeremiah. University of Wisconsin-Madison; Estados Unidos Fil: Moffa Sánchez, Paola. University of Durham; Reino Unido Fil: Morrill, Carrie. University of Colorado; Estados Unidos Fil: Orsi, Anais. Université Paris-Saclay; Francia Fil: Rehfeld, Kira. Heidelberg University; Alemania Fil: Saunders, Krystyna. Australian Nuclear Science And Technology Organisation; Australia Fil: Sommer, Philipp. University Of Lausanne; Suiza Fil: Thomas, Elizabeth. University At Buffalo; Estados Unidos Fil: Tonello, Marcela Sandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina Fil: Tóth, Mónika. Balaton Limnological Institute; Hungría Fil: Vachula, Richard. Brown University; Estados Unidos Fil: Andreev, Andrei. Alfred Wegener Institut Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research; Alemania Fil: Bertrand, Sebastien. Ghent University; Bélgica Fil: Massaferro, Julieta. Administración de Parques Nacionales. Parque Nacional "Nahuel Huapi"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina

Neogloboquadrina pachyderma is the dominant species of planktonic foraminifera found in polar waters and is therefore invaluable for paleoceanographic studies of the high latitudes. However, the geochemistry of this species is complicated due to the development of a thick calcite crust in its final growth stage and at greater depths within the water column. We analyzed the in situ Mg/Ca and δ18O in discrete calcite zones using LA‐ICP‐MS, EPMA and SIMS within modern N. pachyderma shells from the highly dynamic Fram Strait and the seasonally isothermal/isohaline Irminger Sea. Here we compare shell geochemistry to the measured temperature, salinity and δ18Osw in which the shells calcified to better understand the controls on N. pachyderma geochemical heterogeneity. We present a relationship between Mg/Ca and temperature in N. pachyderma lamellar calcite that is significantly different than published equations for shells that contained both crust and lamellar calcite. We also document highly variable SIMS δ18O results (up to a 3.3‰ range in single shells) on plankton tow samples which we hypothesize is due to the granular texture of shell walls. Finally, we document that the δ18O of the crust and lamellar calcite of N. pachyderma from an isothermal/isohaline environment are indistinguishable from each other, indicating that shifts in N. pachyderma δ18O are primarily controlled by changes in environmental temperature and/or salinity rather than differences in the sensitivities of the two calcite types to environmental conditions.

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format., Measurement(s)climateTechnology Type(s)digital curationFactor Type(s)temporal interval • geographic location • proxy typeSample Characteristic - Environmentclimate systemSample Characteristic - LocationEarth (planet) Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/27330

Aim Biodiversity dynamics comprise evolutionary and ecological changes on multiple temporal scales from millions of years to decades, but they are often interpreted within a single time frame. Planktonic foraminifera communities offer a unique opportunity for analysing the dynamics of marine biodiversity over different temporal scales. Our study aims to provide a baseline for assessments of biodiversity patterns over multiple time-scales, which is urgently needed to interpret biodiversity responses to increasing anthropogenic pressure. Location Global (26 sites). Time period Five time-scales: multi-million-year (0-7 Myr), million-year (0-0.5 Myr), multi-millennial (0-15 thousand years), millennial (0-1,100 years) and decadal (0-32 years). Major taxa studied Planktonic foraminifera. Methods We analysed community composition of planktonic foraminifera at five time-scales, combining measures of standing diversity (richness and effective number of species, ENS) with measures of temporal community turnover (presence-absence-based, dominance-based). Observed biodiversity patterns were compared with the outcome of a neutral model to separate the effects of sampling resolution (the highest in the shortest time series) from biological responses. Results Richness and ENS decreased from multi-million-year to millennial time-scales, but higher standing diversity was observed on the decadal scale. As predicted by the neutral model, turnover in species identity and dominance was strongest at the multi-million-year time-scale and decreased towards the millennial scale. However, contrary to the model predictions, modern time series show rapid decadal variation in the dominance structure of foraminifera communities, which is of comparable magnitude as over much longer time periods. Community turnover was significantly correlated with global temperature change, but not on the shortest time-scale. Main conclusions Biodiversity patterns can be to some degree predicted from the scaling effects related to different durations of time series, but changes in the dominance structure observed over the last few decades reach higher magnitude, probably forced by anthropogenic effects, than those observed over much longer durations.

Planktonic foraminifera precipitate calcareous shells, which after the death of the organisms are exported from the sea surface to the sea floor, where they are preserved on geologically relevant timescales. The export flux of planktonic foraminifera shells constitutes globally up to a half, and in the studied region off Cap Blanc (Atlantic Ocean) about one third, of the marine pelagic calcite flux. Given their importance for the marine calcite budget and for the pelagic carbonate counter pump, which counteracts the biological pump in terms of oceanic capacity for intake of CO2, it is crucial to gain an understanding of factors modulating the export flux of planktonic foraminifera calcite. In principle, variability in the export flux of planktonic foraminifera calcite could depend within one species on i) shell flux, ii) shell size and iii) calcification intensity, and where shell size and calcification intensity differ among species also on the species composition of the deposited assemblage. To assess the importance of these aspects in modulating the export flux of planktonic foraminifera calcite, we investigated two annual time series (from 1990-1991 and 2007-2008) from sediment traps moored in the Cap Blanc upwelling area. We assessed the predictability of foraminifera calcite flux variability on seasonal and interannual time scales, by determining the variability in species-specific shell fluxes, shell sizes and weights with bi-weekly resolution. We find a remarkable discrepancy in the contribution of the controlling factors between seasonal and interannual scales. On the seasonal time scale, 80% of the variability of the calcite flux is explained by shell flux. On the inter-annual time scale, on the other hand, variations in shell size and calcification intensity are key to explain the calcite flux, since the time series from 2007-2008 yielded 58% larger and 11% heavier specimens. These results imply that for the global estimate of planktonic foraminifera calcite flux, shell flux is likely the most relevant predictor. However, a prediction of the temporal evolution of the calcite flux will likely require estimates of changes in shell size and calcification intensity of the involved foraminifera species.

Understanding the response of marine ecosystems to climate change requires knowledge of processes that operate over long time scales. Over the last decades, abundant data have been generated on the change in the composition of marine microplankton assemblages across the last deglaciation. These data were used to reconstruct various aspects of the ocean and climate system during this climatic upheaval; however, their potential to evaluate biotic response to climatic forcing has been rarely explored. Here, we compiled records of plankton response to the last deglaciation covering the entire North Atlantic Ocean. The records comprise assemblage composition data of marine zooplankton (planktonic foraminifera) and phytoplankton (coccolithophores, diatoms and dinoflagellates) covering the last 24 ka with a resolution of at least 1 ka. The comparability of the data is ensured by using either published age models or a combination of radiocarbon ages and correlated oxygen isotope data. We use these records to first determine the shape of the major compositional change in each record by principle components analyses and quantification of compositional turnover. The mean global response of the plankton to the deglaciation was then evaluated by an Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis of the main biotic trends across all sites. A preliminary analysis was run solely on the zooplankton data set as the phytoplankton data set is still work in progress. We find that the dominant response of the zooplankton consists of synchronous unidirectional shifts initiated between 16-17 ka BP, and progressing into the Holocene. When regressed on the global ocean temperature and CO2 trends, we can see a proportionate response to the forcing during the last glacial maximum, the deglaciation and the early Holocene. In contrast, the late Holocene is characterised by continued compositional change, which does not appear related to environmental forcing. We speculate that this decoupling indicates the existence of a multi-millennial delay in community change following the climatic forcing, likely due to biotic interactions acting on communities that have been newly assembled or geographically displaced due to abiotic forcing. We will present a similar analysis for marine phytoplankton and discuss the consequences of the observations for the understanding of community variability on millennial time scales.

La reconstrucción de la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM) ha estado durante mucho tiempo en el centro de la investigación paleoceanográfica. Los estudios en el Mediterráneo no han sido una excepción, ya que la reconstrucción cuantitativa de TSM en esta cuenca semicerrada es crucial para comprender el cambio climático pasado en la región. Muchos de estos métodos se basaron en foraminíferos planctónicos, tanto en su geoquímica de caparazón como en la composición de los ensamblajes (por ejemplo, funciones de transferencia). Comprender y modelar las relaciones entre el censo actual y las variables ambientales es la base para transformar los datos fósiles en estimaciones cuantitativas de estas variables. Aunque globalmente, los conjuntos de foraminíferos parecen estar determinados principalmente por la temperatura, en cuencas marginales como el Mediterráneo, In this study we attempt to determine which environmental parameters may control the variability of planktonic foraminifer assemblages in the modern Mediterranean. For this purpose, census counts of planktonic foraminifera assemblages from Mediterranean coretops (ForCenS data base) have been integrated with monthly estimates of SST, chlorophyll concentration, and vertical gradients of various parameters as proxies for water column stratification/mixing (WOA 1998). Redundancy Analysis (RDA) was used to evaluating the explanatory power and the collinearity among tested environmental parameters and a forward selection of variables was carried out to identify those explaining independently the largest share of the variance in the composition of planktonic foraminifera assemblages.Se identificaron nueve variables significativas. Tres de ellos corresponden a TSM, mientras que los otros seis se distribuyen entre las concentraciones de clorofila superficial (2) y los gradientes térmicos verticales (4). Las variables más explicativas son la TSM de junio (R 2 0.43) y el gradiente térmico vertical de diciembre (R 2 0.15).

Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ~ 2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic composition of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 756 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including: glacier and ground ice (205); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (145); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial, and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and non-experts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate model simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model-data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.11553162 (McKay and Konecky, 2020).

Palaeoclimate data hold the unique promise of providing a long-term perspective on climate change and as such can serve as an important benchmark for climate models. However, palaeoclimate data have generally been archived with insufficient standardisation and metadata to allow for transparent and consistent uncertainty assessment in an automated way. Thanks to improved computation capacity, transient palaeoclimate simulations are now possible, calling for data products containing multi-parameter time series rather than information on a single parameter for a single time slice. Efforts are underway to simulate a complete glacial–interglacial cycle using general circulation models (https://www.palmod.de/, last access: 6 May 2020), and to confront these simulations with palaeoclimate data, we have compiled a multi-parameter marine palaeoclimate data synthesis that contains time series spanning 0 to 130 000 years ago. We present the first version of the data product that focuses exclusively on time series for which a robust chronology based on benthic foraminifera δ18O and radiocarbon dating is available. The product contains 896 time series of eight palaeoclimate parameters from 143 individual sites, each associated with rich metadata, age–depth model ensembles, and information to refine and update the chronologies. This version contains 205 time series of benthic foraminifera δ18O; 169 of benthic foraminifera δ13C; 131 of seawater temperature; 174 and 119 of planktonic foraminifera δ18O and δ13C; and 44, 38 and 16 of carbonate, organic carbon and biogenic silica content, respectively. The data product is available in three formats (R, LiPD and netCDF) facilitating use across different software and operating systems and can be downloaded at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.908831 (Jonkers et al., 2019). This data descriptor presents our data synthesis strategy and describes the contents and format of the data product in detail. It ends with a set of recommendations for data archiving.

Species of planktonic foraminifera exhibit specific seasonal production patterns and different preferred vertical habitats. The seasonal and vertical habitats are not constant throughout the range of the species and changes therein must be considered when interpreting paleoceanographic reconstructions based on fossil foraminifera. However, detecting the effect of changing vertical and seasonal habitat on foraminifera proxies requires independent evidence for either habitat or climate change. In practice, this renders accounting for habitat tracking from fossil evidence almost impossible. An alternative method that could reduce the bias in paleoceanographic reconstructions is to predict species-specific habitat shifts under climate change using an ecosystem modeling approach. To this end, we present a new version of a planktonic foraminifera model, PLAFOM2.0, embedded into the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2. This model predicts monthly global concentrations of the planktonic foraminiferal species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, N. incompta, Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinoides ruber (white), and Trilobatus sacculifer throughout the world ocean, resolved in 24 vertical layers to 250 m of depth. The resolution along the vertical dimension has been implemented by applying the previously used spatial parameterization of carbon biomass as a function of temperature, light, nutrition, and competition on depth-resolved parameter fields. This approach alone results in the emergence of species-specific vertical habitats, which are spatially and temporally variable. Although an explicit parameterization of the vertical dimension has not been carried out, the seasonal and vertical distribution patterns predicted by the model are in good agreement with sediment trap data and plankton tow observations. In the simulation, the colder-water species N. pachyderma, N. incompta, and G. bulloides show a pronounced seasonal cycle in their depth habitat in the polar and subpolar regions, which appears to be controlled by food availability. During the warm season, these species preferably occur in the subsurface (below 50 m of water depth), while towards the cold season they ascend through the water column and are found closer to the sea surface. The warm-water species G. ruber (white) and T. sacculifer exhibit a less variable shallow depth habitat with highest carbon biomass concentrations within the top 40 m of the water column. Nevertheless, even these species show vertical habitat variability and their seasonal occurrence outside the tropics is limited to the warm surface layer that develops at the end of the warm season. The emergence in PLAFOM2.0 of species-specific vertical habitats, which are consistent with observations, indicates that the population dynamics of planktonic foraminifera species may be driven by the same factors in time, space, and with depth, in which case the model can provide a reliable and robust tool to aid the interpretation of proxy records.

The composition of planktonic foraminiferal (PF) calcite is routinely used to reconstruct climate change and variability. However, PF ecology leaves a large imprint on the proxy signal. The seasonal and vertical habitat of planktonic foraminifera (PF) species varies spatially, causing variable offsets from annual mean surface conditions recorded by sedimentary assemblages. PF seasonality changes with temperature in a way that minimises the environmental change that individual species experience. While such habitat tracking could lead to an underestimation of spatial or temporal trends and variability in proxy records, most paleoceanographic studies are based on the assumption of a constant habitat. Although the controls on depth habitat variability are less well constrained, it is not unlikely that habitat tracking also affects PF depth habitat. Despite the implications, the effect of this behaviour on foraminifera proxy records has not yet been formally quantified on a global scale. Here we attempt to characterise the effect of habitat tracking on the amplitude of environmental change recorded in sedimentary PF using core top δ18O data from six species, which we compare to predicted δ18O. We find that the offset from mean annual near-surface δ18O values varies with temperature, with PF δ18O indicating warmer than mean conditions in colder waters (on average by −0.1 ‰ (or 0.4°C) per °C), thus providing a first-order quantification of the degree of underestimation due to habitat tracking. We then use an empirical model to estimate the contribution of seasonality to the observed difference between PF and annual mean δ18O and use the residual Δδ18O to assess trends in calcification depth. Our analysis indicates that in all species calcification depth increases with temperature. Consistent with hydrographic conditions, vertical habitat adjustment is dominant in tropical species, whereas cold-water species mainly changes their seasonality when tracking their "optimum" habitat. Assumptions of constant PF depth or seasonal habitat made when interpreting proxy records are thus invalid. The approach outlined here can be used to account for these effects, enabling more accurate reconstructions and improved data-model comparison.

Made available in DSpace on 2022-04-29T08:28:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2019-12-01 German Academic Exchange Service London Natural Environment Research Council Aim: Many clades display the macroevolutionary pattern of a negative relationship between standing diversity and diversification rates. Competition among species has been proposed as the main mechanism that explains this pattern. However, we currently lack empirical insight into how the effects of individual-level ecological interactions scale up to affect species diversification. Here, we investigate a clade that shows evidence for negative diversity-dependent diversification in the fossil record and test whether the clade's modern communities show a corresponding signal of interspecific competition. Location: World's oceans. Time period: Holocene. Major taxa studied: Planktonic Foraminifera (Rhizaria). Methods: We explore spatial and temporal ecological patterns expected under interspecific competition. Firstly, we use a community phylogenetics approach to test for signs of local competitive exclusion among ecologically similar species (defined as closely related or of similar shell sizes) by combining species relative abundances in seafloor sediments. Secondly, we analyse whether population abundances of co-occurring species covary negatively through time using sediment trap time-series spanning 1–12 years. Results: The great majority of the assemblages are indistinguishable from randomly assembled communities, showing no significant spatial co-occurrence patterns regarding phylogeny or size similarity. Through time, most species pairs correlated positively, indicating synchronous rather than compensatory population dynamics. Main conclusions: We found no detectable evidence for interspecific competition structuring extant planktonic Foraminifera communities. Species co-occurrences and population dynamics are likely regulated by the abiotic environment and/or distantly related species, rather than intra-clade density-dependent processes. This interpretation contradicts the idea that competition drives the clade's macroevolutionary dynamics. One way to better integrate community ecology and macroevolution is to consider that diversification dynamics are influenced by groups that interact ecologically even when distantly related. Ocean and Earth Science National Oceanography Centre Southampton University of Southampton Center for Marine Environmental Sciences University of Bremen Department of Zoology University of British Columbia Instituto de Física Teórica Universidade Estadual de São Paulo School of Geography Earth and Environmental Science University of Birmingham Instituto de Física Teórica Universidade Estadual de São Paulo German Academic Exchange Service London: DAAD 2016/17 57210260 Natural Environment Research Council: NE/J018163/1 Natural Environment Research Council: NE/P019269/1