Search

The TRAPPIST-1 system has been extensively observed with JWST in the near-infrared with the goal of measuring atmospheric transit transmission spectra of these temperate, Earth-sized exoplanets. A byproduct of these observations has been much more precise times of transit compared with prior available data from Spitzer, HST, or ground-based telescopes. In this note we use 23 new timing measurements of all seven planets in the near-infrared from five JWST observing programs to better forecast and constrain the future times of transit in this system. In particular, we note that the transit times of TRAPPIST-1h have drifted significantly from a prior published analysis by up to tens of minutes. Our newer forecast has a higher precision, with median statistical uncertainties ranging from 7-105 seconds during JWST Cycles 4 and 5. Our expectation is that this forecast will help to improve planning of future observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets, whereas we postpone a full dynamical analysis to future work., Comment: Submitted to AAS journals, 4 pages, 1 figure

The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI)'s Medium Resolution Spectrometer (the MRS) on JWST has potentially important advantages for transit and eclipse spectroscopy of exoplanets, including lack of saturation for bright host stars, wavelength span to longward of 20 microns, and JWST's highest spectral resolving power. We here test the performance of the MRS for time series spectroscopy by observing the secondary eclipse of the bright stellar eclipsing binary R Canis Majoris. Our observations push the MRS into saturation at the shortest wavelength, more than for any currently known exoplanet system. We find strong charge migration between pixels that we mitigate using a custom data analysis pipeline. Our data analysis recovers much of the spatial charge migration by combining detector pixels at the group level, via weighting by the point spread function. We achieve nearly photon-limited performance in time series data at wavelengths longward of 5.2 microns. In 2017, Snellen et al. suggested that the MRS could be used to detect carbon dioxide absorption from the atmosphere of the temperate planet orbiting Proxima Centauri. We infer that the relative spectral response of the MRS versus wavelength is sufficiently stable to make that detection feasible. As regards the secondary eclipse of this Algol-type binary, we measure the eclipse depth by summing our spectra over the wavelengths in four channels, and also measuring the eclipse depth as observed by TESS. Those eclipse depths require a temperature for the secondary star that is significantly hotter than previous observations in the optical to near-IR, probably due to irradiation by the primary star. At full spectral resolution of the MRS, we find atomic hydrogen recombination emission lines in the secondary star, from principal quantum levels n = 7, 8, 10, and 14., Comment: Accepted for PASP. 23 pages, 14 figures, 4 tables

The highest priority recommendation of the Astro2020 Decadal Survey for space-based astronomy was the construction of an observatory capable of characterizing habitable worlds. In this paper series we explore the detectability of and interference from exomoons and exorings serendipitously observed with the proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) as it seeks to characterize exoplanets, starting in this manuscript with Earth-Moon analog mutual events. Unlike transits, which only occur in systems viewed near edge-on, shadow (i.e., solar eclipse) and lunar eclipse mutual events occur in almost every star-planet-moon system. The cadence of these events can vary widely from ~yearly to multiple events per day, as was the case in our younger Earth-Moon system. Leveraging previous space-based (EPOXI) lightcurves of a Moon transit and performance predictions from the LUVOIR-B concept, we derive the detectability of Moon analogs with HWO. We determine that Earth-Moon analogs are detectable with observation of ~2-20 mutual events for systems within 10pc, and larger moons should remain detectable out to 20pc. We explore the extent to which exomoon mutual events can mimic planet features and weather. We find that HWO wavelength coverage in the near-IR, specifically in the 1.4 micron water band where large moons can outshine their host planet, will aid in differentiating exomoon signals from exoplanet variability. Finally, we predict that exomoons formed through collision processes akin to our Moon are more likely to be detected in younger systems, where shorter orbital periods and favorable geometry enhance the probability and frequency of mutual events., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, in review at AJ, includes revisions from first round of review, comments welcome

Future astrophysics missions will seek extraterrestrial life via transmission and direct imaging observations. To assess habitability and biosignatures, we need robust retrieval tools to analyze observed spectra, and infer surface and atmospheric properties with their uncertainties. We use a novel retrieval tool to assess accuracy in characterizing near-surface habitability and biosignatures via simulated transmission and direct imaging spectra, based on the Origins Space Telescope (Origins) and LUVOIR mission concepts. We assess our ability to discriminate between an Earth-like and a false-positive O$_3$ TRAPPIST-1 e with transmission spectroscopy. In reflected light, we assess the robustness of retrieval results to un-modeled cloud extinction. We find that assessing habitability using transmission spectra may be challenging due to relative insensitivity to surface temperature and near-surface H$_2$O abundances. Nonetheless, our order of magnitude H$_2$O constraints can discriminate extremely desiccated worlds. Direct imaging is insensitive to surface temperature and subject to the radius/albedo degeneracy, but this method proves highly sensitive to surface water abundance, achieving retrieval precision within 0.1% even with partial clouds. Concerning biosignatures, Origins-like transmission observations ($t=40$ hours) may detect the CO$_2$/CH$_4$ pair on M-dwarf planets and differentiate between biological and false positive O$_3$ using H$_2$O and abundant CO. In contrast, direct imaging observations with LUVOIR-A ($t=10$ hours) are better suited to constraining O$_2$ and O$_3$, and may be sensitive to wavelength-dependent water cloud features, but will struggle to detect modern Earth-like abundances of methane. For direct imaging, we weakly detect a stratospheric ozone bulge by fitting the near-UV wings of the Hartley band., Comment: 44 pages, 11 figures, 4 figure sets, 7 tables, accepted for publication in PSJ

We present a JWST/NIRCam transmission spectrum from $3.9-5.0$ $\mu$m of the recently-validated sub-Earth GJ 341b ($\mathrm{R_P} = 0.92$ $\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$, $\mathrm{T_{eq}} = 540$ K) orbiting a nearby bright M1 star ($\mathrm{d} = 10.4$ pc, $\mathrm{K_{mag}}=5.6$). We use three independent pipelines to reduce the data from the three JWST visits and perform several tests to check for the significance of an atmosphere. Overall, our analysis does not uncover evidence of an atmosphere. Our null hypothesis tests find that none of our pipelines' transmission spectra can rule out a flat line, although there is weak evidence for a Gaussian feature in two spectra from different pipelines (at 2.3 and $2.9\sigma$). However, the candidate features are seen at different wavelengths (4.3 $\mu$m vs 4.7 $\mu$m), and our retrieval analysis finds that different gas species can explain these features in the two reductions (CO$_2$ at $3.1\sigma$ compared to O$_3$ at $2.9\sigma$), suggesting that they are not real astrophysical signals. Our forward model analysis rules out a low mean molecular weight atmosphere ($< 350\times$ solar metallicity) to at least $3\sigma$, and disfavors CH$_4$-dominated atmospheres at $1-3\sigma$, depending on the reduction. Instead, the forward models find our transmission spectra are consistent with no atmosphere, a hazy atmosphere, or an atmosphere containing a species that does not have prominent molecular bands across the NIRCam/F444W bandpass, such as a water-dominated atmosphere. Our results demonstrate the unequivocal need for two or more transit observations analyzed with multiple reduction pipelines, alongside rigorous statistical tests, to determine the robustness of molecular detections for small exoplanet atmospheres., Comment: 25 pages, 18 figures, 6 tables. Accepted for publication in AJ

Ultra-cool dwarf stars are abundant, long-lived, and uniquely suited to enable the atmospheric study of transiting terrestrial companions with JWST. Amongst them, the most prominent is the M8.5V star TRAPPIST-1 and its seven planets. While JWST Cycle 1 observations have started to yield preliminary insights into the planets, they have also revealed that their atmospheric exploration requires a better understanding of their host star. Here, we propose a roadmap to characterize the TRAPPIST-1 system -- and others like it -- in an efficient and robust manner. We notably recommend that -- although more challenging to schedule -- multi-transit windows be prioritized to mitigate the effects of stellar activity and gather up to twice more transits per JWST hour spent. We conclude that, for such systems, planets cannot be studied in isolation by small programs, but rather need large-scale, jointly space- and ground-based initiatives to fully exploit the capabilities of JWST for the exploration of terrestrial planets.

The search for rocky planet atmospheres with JWST has focused on planets transiting M dwarfs. Such planets have favorable planet-to-star size ratios, enhancing the amplitude of atmospheric features. Since the expected signal strength of atmospheric features is similar to the single-transit performance of JWST, multiple observations are required to confirm any detection. Here, we present two transit observations of the rocky planet GJ 1132 b with JWST NIRSpec G395H, covering 2.8-5.2 $\mu$m. Previous HST WFC3 observations of GJ 1132 b were inconclusive, with evidence reported for either an atmosphere or a featureless spectrum based on analyses of the same dataset. Our JWST data exhibit substantial differences between the two visits. One transit is consistent with either a H$_2$O-dominated atmosphere containing ~1% CH$_4$ and trace N$_2$O ($\chi^{2}_{\nu}$ = 1.13) or stellar contamination from unocculted starspots ($\chi^{2}_{\nu}$ = 1.36). However, the second transit is consistent with a featureless spectrum. Neither visit is consistent with a previous report of HCN. Atmospheric variability is unlikely to explain the scale of the observed differences between the visits. Similarly, our out-of-transit stellar spectra show no evidence of changing stellar inhomogeneity between the two visits - observed 8 days apart, only 6.5% of the stellar rotation rate. We further find no evidence of differing instrumental systematic effects between visits. The most plausible explanation is an unlucky random noise draw leading to two significantly discrepant transmission spectra. Our results highlight the importance of multi-visit repeatability with JWST prior to claiming atmospheric detections for these small, enigmatic planets., Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters. Co-First Authors. Bonus materials and spectral data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10002089

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will enable the search for and characterization of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres in the habitable zone via transmission spectroscopy. However, relatively little work has been done to use solar system data, where ground truth is known, to validate spectroscopic retrieval codes intended for exoplanet studies, particularly in the limit of high resolution and high signal-to-noise (S/N). In this work, we perform such a validation by analyzing a high S/N empirical transmission spectrum of Earth using a new terrestrial exoplanet atmospheric retrieval model with heritage in Solar System remote sensing and gaseous exoplanet retrievals. We fit the Earth's 2-14 um transmission spectrum in low resolution (R=250 at 5 um) and high resolution (R=100,000 at 5 um) under a variety of assumptions about the 1D vertical atmospheric structure. In the limit of noiseless transmission spectra, we find excellent agreement between model and data (deviations < 10%) that enable the robust detection of H2O, CO2, O3, CH4, N2, N2O, NO2, HNO3, CFC-11, and CFC-12 thereby providing compelling support for the detection of habitability, biosignature, and technosignature gases in the atmosphere of the planet using an exoplanet-analog transmission spectrum. Our retrievals at high spectral resolution show a marked sensitivity to the thermal structure of the atmosphere, trace gas abundances, density-dependent effects, such as collision-induced absorption and refraction, and even hint at 3D spatial effects. However, we used synthetic observations of TRAPPIST-1e to verify that the use of simple 1D vertically homogeneous atmospheric models will likely suffice for JWST observations of terrestrial exoplanets transiting M dwarfs., Comment: 37 pages, 14 figures, 9 tables. Accepted for publication in PSJ

Planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are prime targets in the search for rocky exoplanet atmospheres. The small size of M dwarfs renders their planets exceptional targets for transmission spectroscopy, facilitating atmospheric characterization. However, it remains unknown whether their host stars' highly variable extreme-UV radiation environments allow atmospheres to persist. With JWST, we have begun to determine whether or not the most favorable rocky worlds orbiting M dwarfs have detectable atmospheres. Here, we present a 2.8-5.2 micron JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the warm (700 K, 40.3x Earth's insolation) super-Earth GJ 486b (1.3 R$_{\oplus}$ and 3.0 M$_{\oplus}$). The measured spectrum from our two transits of GJ 486b deviates from a flat line at 2.2 - 3.3 $\sigma$, based on three independent reductions. Through a combination of forward and retrieval models, we determine that GJ 486b either has a water-rich atmosphere (with the most stringent constraint on the retrieved water abundance of H2O > 10% to 2$\sigma$) or the transmission spectrum is contaminated by water present in cool unocculted starspots. We also find that the measured stellar spectrum is best fit by a stellar model with cool starspots and hot faculae. While both retrieval scenarios provide equal quality fits ($\chi^2_\nu$ = 1.0) to our NIRSpec/G395H observations, shorter wavelength observations can break this degeneracy and reveal if GJ 486b sustains a water-rich atmosphere., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables. Accepted in ApJ Letters. Co-First Authors

In this paper, we compare the chemistry and the emission spectra of nitrogen-dominated cool, warm, and hot ultra-short-period (USP) super-Earth atmospheres in and out of chemical equilibrium at various surface pressure scenarios ranging from 0.1 to 10 bar. We link the one-dimensional VULCAN chemical kinetic code, in which thermochemical kinetic and vertical transport and photochemistry are taken into account, to the one-dimensional radiative transfer model, PETITRADTRANS, to predict the emission spectra of these planets. The radiative-convective temperature-pressure profiles were computed with the HELIOS code. Then, using PANDEXO noise simulator, we explore the observability of the differences produced by disequilibrium processes with the JWST. Our grids show how different surface pressures can significantly affect the temperature profiles, the atmospheric abundances, and consequently the emission spectra of these planets. We find that the divergences due to disequilibrium processes would be possible to observe in cooler planets by targeting HCN, C2H4, and CO, and in warmer planets by targeting CH4 with HCN, using the NIRSpec and MIRI LRS JWST instruments. These species are also found to be sensitive indicators of the existence of surfaces on nitrogen-dominated USP super-Earths, providing information regarding the thickness of these atmospheres., Comment: 12 pages

High precision lightcurves combined with eclipse mapping techniques can reveal the horizontal and vertical structure of a planet's thermal emission and the dynamics of hot Jupiters. Someday, they even may reveal the surface maps of rocky planets. However, inverting lightcurves into maps requires an understanding of the planet, star and instrumental trends because they can resemble the gradual flux variations as the planet rotates (ie. partial phase curves). In this work, we simulate lightcurves with baseline trends and assess the impact on planet maps. Baseline trends can be erroneously modeled by incorrect astrophysical planet map features, but there are clues to avoid this pitfall in both the residuals of the lightcurve during eclipse and sharp features at the terminator of the planet. Models that use a Gaussian process or polynomial to account for a baseline trend successfully recover the input map even in the presence of systematics but with worse precision for the m=1 spherical harmonic terms. This is also confirmed with the ThERESA eigencurve method where fewer lightcurve terms can model the planet without correlations between the components. These conclusions help aid the decision on how to schedule observations to improve map precision. If the m=1 components are critical, such as measuring the East/West hotspot shift on a hot Jupiter, better characterization of baseline trends can improve the m=1 terms' precision. For latitudinal North/South information from the remaining mapping terms, it is preferable to obtain high signal-to-noise at ingress/egress with more eclipses., Comment: AJ, accepted, 22 pages

Measuring the metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio in exoplanet atmospheres is a fundamental step towards constraining the dominant chemical processes at work and, if in equilibrium, revealing planet formation histories. Transmission spectroscopy provides the necessary means by constraining the abundances of oxygen- and carbon-bearing species; however, this requires broad wavelength coverage, moderate spectral resolution, and high precision that, together, are not achievable with previous observatories. Now that JWST has commenced science operations, we are able to observe exoplanets at previously uncharted wavelengths and spectral resolutions. Here we report time-series observations of the transiting exoplanet WASP-39b using JWST's Near InfraRed Camera (NIRCam). The long-wavelength spectroscopic and short-wavelength photometric light curves span 2.0 - 4.0 $\mu$m, exhibit minimal systematics, and reveal well-defined molecular absorption features in the planet's spectrum. Specifically, we detect gaseous H$_2$O in the atmosphere and place an upper limit on the abundance of CH$_4$. The otherwise prominent CO$_2$ feature at 2.8 $\mu$m is largely masked by H$_2$O. The best-fit chemical equilibrium models favour an atmospheric metallicity of 1-100$\times$ solar (i.e., an enrichment of elements heavier than helium relative to the Sun) and a sub-stellar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio. The inferred high metallicity and low C/O ratio may indicate significant accretion of solid materials during planet formation or disequilibrium processes in the upper atmosphere., Comment: 35 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables, Nature, accepted

We demonstrate that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) can detect infrared (IR) excess from the blended light spectral energy distribution of spatially unresolved terrestrial exoplanets orbiting nearby white dwarfs. We find that JWST is capable of detecting warm (habitable-zone; T$_{\rm eq}$=287 K) Earths or super-Earths and hot (400-1000 K) Mercury analogs in the blended light spectrum around the nearest 15 isolated white dwarfs with 10 hrs of integration per target using MIRI's Medium Resolution Spectrograph (MRS). Further, these observations constrain the presence of a CO$_2$-dominated atmosphere on these planets. The technique is nearly insensitive to system inclination, and thus observation of even a small sample of white dwarfs could place strong limits on the occurrence rates of warm terrestrial exoplanets around white dwarfs in the solar neighborhood. We find that JWST can also detect exceptionally cold (100-150 K) Jupiter-sized exoplanets via MIRI broadband imaging at $\lambda = 21\,\mathrm{\mu m}$ for the 34 nearest ($<13$ pc) solitary white dwarfs with 2 hrs of integration time per target. Using IR excess to detect thermal variations with orbital phase or spectral absorption features within the atmosphere, both of which are possible with long-baseline MRS observations, would confirm candidates as actual exoplanets. Assuming an Earth-like atmospheric composition, we find that the detection of the biosignature pair O$_3$+CH$_4$ is possible for all habitable-zone Earths (within 6.5 pc; six white dwarf systems) or super-Earths (within 10 pc; 17 systems) orbiting white dwarfs with only 5-36 hrs of integration using MIRI's Low Resolution Spectrometer (LRS)., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a key chemical species that is found in a wide range of planetary atmospheres. In the context of exoplanets, CO2 is an indicator of the metal enrichment (i.e., elements heavier than helium, also called "metallicity"), and thus formation processes of the primary atmospheres of hot gas giants. It is also one of the most promising species to detect in the secondary atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets. Previous photometric measurements of transiting planets with the Spitzer Space Telescope have given hints of the presence of CO2 but have not yielded definitive detections due to the lack of unambiguous spectroscopic identification. Here we present the detection of CO2 in the atmosphere of the gas giant exoplanet WASP-39b from transmission spectroscopy observations obtained with JWST as part of the Early Release Science Program (ERS). The data used in this study span 3.0 to 5.5 {\mu}m in wavelength and show a prominent CO2 absorption feature at 4.3 {\mu}m (26{\sigma} significance). The overall spectrum is well matched by one-dimensional, 10x solar metallicity models that assume radiative-convective-thermochemical equilibrium and have moderate cloud opacity. These models predict that the atmosphere should have water, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen sulfide in addition to CO2, but little methane. Furthermore, we also tentatively detect a small absorption feature near 4.0 {\mu}m that is not reproduced by these models., Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, Accepted for publication in Nature, data and models available at https://doi.10.5281/zenodo.6959427

Recent investigations have demonstrated the potential for utilizing a new observational and data analysis technique for studying the atmospheres of non-transiting exoplanets with combined light that relies on acquiring simultaneous, broad-wavelength spectra and resolving planetary infrared emission from the stellar spectrum through simultaneous fitting of the stellar and planetary spectral signatures. This new data analysis technique, called Planetary Infrared Excess (PIE), holds the potential to open up the opportunity for measuring MIR phase curves of non-transiting rocky planets around the nearest stars with a relatively modest telescope aperture. We present simulations of the performance and science yield for a mission and instrument concept that we call the MIR Exoplanet CLimate Explorer (MIRECLE), a concept for a moderately-sized cryogenic telescope with broad wavelength coverage (1 - 18 um) and a low-resolution (R ~ 50) spectrograph designed for the simultaneous wavelength coverage and extreme flux measurement precision necessary to detect the emission from cool rocky planets with PIE. We present exploratory simulations of the potential science yield for PIE measurements of the nearby planet Proxima Cen b, showing the potential to measure the composition and structure of an Earth-like atmosphere with a relatively modest observing time. We also present overall science yields for several mission architecture and performance metrics, and discuss the technical performance requirements and potential telescope and instrument technologies that could meet these requirements., Comment: Accepted to Astronomical Journal

The TRAPPIST-1 system is home to at least seven terrestrial planets and is a target of interest for future James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations. Additionally, these planets will be of interest to future missions making observations in the ultraviolet (UV). Although several of these planets are located in the traditional habitable zone, where liquid water could exist on the surface, TRAPPIST-1h is interesting to explore as a potentially habitable ocean world analog. In this study, we evaluate the observability of a Titan-like atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1h. The ability of the JWST or a future UV mission to detect specific species in the atmosphere at TRAPPIST-1h will depend on how far each species extends from the surface. In order to understand the conditions required for detection, we evaluate the input parameters used in one-dimensional models to simulate the structure of Titan-like atmospheres. These parameters include surface temperature and pressure, temperature profile as a function of distance from the surface, composition of the minor species relative to N 2, and the eddy diffusion coefficient. We find that JWST simulated spectra for cloud- and haze-free atmospheres are most sensitive to surface temperature, temperature gradients with altitude, and surface pressure. The importance of temperature gradients in JWST observations shows that a simple isothermal scale height is not ideal for determining temperature or atmospheric mean molecular mass in transit spectra from exoplanet atmospheres. We demonstrate that UV transmission spectra are sensitive to the upper atmosphere, where the exobase can be used to approximate the vertical extent of the atmosphere.

With the growing number of spectroscopic observations and observational platforms capable of exoplanet atmospheric characterization, there is a growing need for analysis techniques that can distill information about a large population of exoplanets into a coherent picture of atmospheric trends expressed within the statistical sample. In this work, we develop a Hierarchical Bayesian Atmospheric Retrieval (HBAR) model to infer population-level trends in exoplanet atmospheric characteristics. We demonstrate HBAR on the case of inferring a trend in atmospheric CO2 with incident stellar flux, predicted by the presence of a functioning carbonate-silicate weathering negative feedback cycle, an assumption upon which all calculations of the habitable zone (HZ) rest. Using simulated transmission spectra and JWST-quality observations of rocky planets with H2O, CO2, and N2 bearing atmospheres, we find that the predicted trend in CO2 causes subtle differences in the spectra of order 10 ppm in the 1-5 um range, underscoring the challenge inherent to testing this hypothesis. In the limit of highly precise data (100 stacked transits per planet), we show that our HBAR model is capable of inferring the population-level parameters that characterize the trend in CO2, and we demonstrate that the null hypothesis and other simpler trends can be rejected at high confidence. Although we find that this specific empirical test of the HZ may be prohibitively challenging in the JWST era, the HBAR framework developed in this work may find a more immediate usage for the analysis of gas giant spectra observed with JWST, Ariel, and other upcoming missions., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

Present and upcoming NASA missions will be intensively observing a selected, partially overlapping set of stars for exoplanet studies. Key physical and chemical information about these stars and their systems is needed for planning observations and interpreting the results. A target star archive of such data would benefit a wide cross-section of the exoplanet community by enhancing the chances of mission success and improving the efficiency of mission observatories. It would also provide a common, accessible resource for scientific analysis based on standardized assumptions, while revealing gaps or deficiencies in existing knowledge of stellar properties necessary for exoplanetary system characterization., Comment: main report: 25 pages including 5 tables and 3 figures; supplemental Appendices A-H also included (total 63 pages) with compiled materials and individual task force reports

To increase the sample size of future atmospheric characterization efforts, we build on the planetary infrared excess (PIE) technique that has been proposed as a means to detect and characterize the thermal spectra of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets using sufficiently broad wavelength coverage to uniquely constrain the stellar and planetary spectral components from spatially unresolved observations. We performed simultaneous retrievals of stellar and planetary spectra for the archetypal planet WASP-43b in its original configuration and a non-transiting configuration to determine the efficacy of the PIE technique for characterizing the planet's nightside atmospheric thermal structure and composition using typical out-of-transit JWST observations. We found that using PIE with JWST should enable the stellar and planetary spectra to be disentangled with no degeneracies seen between the two flux sources, thus allowing robust constraints on the planet's nightside thermal structure and water abundance to be retrieved. The broad wavelength coverage achieved by combining spectra from NIRISS, NIRSpec, and MIRI enables PIE retrievals that are within 10% of the precision attained using traditional secondary eclipse measurements, although mid-IR observations with MIRI alone may face up to 3.5 times lower precision on the planet's irradiation temperature. For non-transiting planets with unconstrained radius priors, we were able to identify and break the degeneracy between planet radius and irradiation temperature using data that resolved the peak of both the stellar and planetary spectra, thus potentially increasing the number of planets amenable to atmospheric characterization with JWST and other future mission concepts., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted to ApJ Letters

In recent years, numerical models that were developed for Earth have been adapted to study exoplanetary climates to understand how the broad range of possible exoplanetary properties affects their climate state. The recent discovery and upcoming characterization of nearby rocky exoplanets opens an avenue toward understanding the processes that shape planetary climates and lead to the persistent habitability of Earth. In this review, we summarize recent advances in understanding the climate of rocky exoplanets, including their atmospheric structure, chemistry, evolution, and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We describe current and upcoming astronomical observations that will constrain the climate of rocky exoplanets and describe how modeling tools will both inform and interpret future observations., Comment: To be published as article 5 in the "Geoscience Beyond the Solar System" issue of Elements magazine, v17 No4

Nitrogen dioxide (NO$_2$) on Earth today has biogenic and anthropogenic sources. During the COVID-19 pandemic, observations of global NO$_2$ emissions have shown significant decrease in urban areas. Drawing upon this example of NO$_2$ as an industrial byproduct, we use a one-dimensional photochemical model and synthetic spectral generator to assess the detectability of NO$_2$ as an atmospheric technosignature on exoplanets. We consider cases of an Earth-like planet around Sun-like, K-dwarf and M-dwarf stars. We find that NO$_2$ concentrations increase on planets around cooler stars due to less short-wavelength photons that can photolyze NO$_2$. In cloud-free results, present Earth-level NO$_2$ on an Earth-like planet around a Sun-like star at 10pc can be detected with SNR ~5 within ~400 hours with a 15 meter LUVOIR-like telescope when observed in the 0.2 - 0.7micron range where NO$_2$ has a strong absorption. However, clouds and aerosols can reduce the detectability and could mimic the NO$_2$ feature. Historically, global NO$_2$ levels were 3x higher, indicating the capability of detecting a 40-year old Earth-level civilization. Transit and direct imaging observations to detect infrared spectral signatures of NO$_2$ on habitable planets around M-dwarfs would need several 100s of hours of observation time, both due to weaker NO$_2$ absorption in this region, and also because of masking features by dominant H$_2$O and CO$_2$ bands in the infrared part of the spectrum. Non-detection at these levels could be used to place upper limits on the prevalence of NO$_2$ as a technosignature., Comment: Accepted to Astrophysical Journal (in press). 1-D photochemical code from 'Atmos' is available at: https://github.com/VirtualPlanetaryLaboratory/atmos

Planetary atmospheres are inherently 3D objects that can have strong gradients in latitude, longitude, and altitude. Secondary eclipse mapping is a powerful way to map the 3D distribution of the atmosphere, but the data can have large correlations and errors in the presence of photon and instrument noise. We develop a technique to mitigate the large uncertainties of eclipse maps by identifying a small number of dominant spectra to make them more tractable for individual analysis via atmospheric retrieval. We use the eigencurves method to infer a multi-wavelength map of a planet from spectroscopic secondary eclipse light curves. We then apply a clustering algorithm to the planet map to identify several regions with similar emergent spectra. We combine the similar spectra together to construct an "eigenspectrum" for each distinct region on the planetary map. We demonstrate how this approach could be used to isolate hot from cold regions and/or regions with different chemical compositions in observations of hot Jupiters with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We find that our method struggles to identify sharp edges in maps with sudden discontinuities, but generally can be used as a first step before a more physically motivated modeling approach to determine the primary features observed on the planet., Comment: 13 pages, 17 figures, accepted to MNRAS

In the near future, extremely-large ground-based telescopes may conduct some of the first searches for life beyond the solar system. High-spectral resolution observations of reflected light from nearby exoplanetary atmospheres could be used to search for the biosignature oxygen. However, while Earth's abundant O$_2$is photosynthetic, early ocean loss may also produce high atmospheric O$_2$ via water vapor photolysis and subsequent hydrogen escape. To explore how to use spectra to discriminate between these two oxygen sources, we generate high-resolution line-by-line synthetic spectra of both a habitable Earth-like, and post-ocean-loss Proxima Centauri b. We examine the strength and profile of four bands of O$_2$ from 0.63 to 1.27 $\mu$m, and quantify their relative detectability. We find that 10 bar O$_2$ post-ocean-loss atmospheres have strong suppression of oxygen bands, and especially the 1.27$\mu$m band. This suppression is due to additional strong, broad O$_2$-O$_2$ collisionally-induced absorption (CIA) generated in these more massive O$_2$atmospheres, which is not present for the smaller amounts of oxygen generated by photosynthesis. Consequently, any detection of the 1.27$\mu$m band in reflected light indicates lower Earth-like O$_2$ levels, which suggests a likely photosynthetic origin. However, the 0.69 $\mu$m O$_2$ band is relatively unaffected by O$_2$-O$_2$ CIA, and the presence of an ocean-loss high-O$_2$ atmosphere could be inferred via detection of a strong 0.69 $\mu$m O$_2$ band, and a weaker or undetected 1.27 $\mu$m band. These results provide a strategy for observing and interpreting O$_2$ in exoplanet atmospheres, that could be considered by future ground-based telescopes., Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures

The upcoming launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) combined with the unique features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary system should enable the young field of exoplanetology to enter into the realm of temperate Earth-sized worlds. Indeed, the proximity of the system (12pc) and the small size (0.12 Rsun) and luminosity (0.05 Lsun) of its host star should make the comparative atmospheric characterization of its seven transiting planets within reach of an ambitious JWST program. Given the limited lifetime of JWST, the ecliptic location of the star that limits its visibility to 100d per year, the large number of observational time required by this study, and the numerous observational and theoretical challenges awaiting it, its full success will critically depend on a large level of coordination between the involved teams and on the support of a large community. In this context, we present here a community initiative aiming to develop a well-defined sequential structure for the study of the system with JWST and to coordinate on every aspect of its preparation and implementation, both on the observational (e.g. study of the instrumental limitations, data analysis techniques, complementary space-based and ground-based observations) and theoretical levels (e.g. model developments and comparison, retrieval techniques, inferences). Depending on the outcome of the first phase of JWST observations of the planets, this initiative could become the seed of a major JWST Legacy Program devoted to the study of TRAPPIST-1., Comment: Comments and suggestions are welcome and can be addressed to "t1jwstci_board@u.washington.edu". 23 pages, 8 figures

Robust atmospheric and radiative transfer modeling will be required to properly interpret reflected light and thermal emission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets. This will help break observational degeneracies between the numerous atmospheric, planetary, and stellar factors that drive planetary climate. Here we simulate the climates of Earth-like worlds around the Sun with increasingly slow rotation periods, from Earth-like to fully Sun-synchronous, using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model. We then provide these results as input to the Spectral Planet Model (SPM), which employs the SMART radiative transfer model to simulate the spectra of a planet as it would be observed from a future space-based telescope. We find that the primary observable effects of slowing planetary rotation rate are the altered cloud distributions, altitudes, and opacities which subsequently drive many changes to the spectra by altering the absorption band depths of biologically-relevant gas species (e.g., H2O, O2, and O3). We also identify a potentially diagnostic feature of synchronously rotating worlds in mid-infrared H2O absorption/emission lines., Comment: Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal

Near-term studies of Venus-like atmospheres with JWST promise to advance our knowledge of terrestrial planet evolution. However, the remote study of Venus in the Solar System and the ongoing efforts to characterize gaseous exoplanets both suggest that high altitude aerosols could limit observational studies of lower atmospheres, and potentially make it challenging to recognize exoplanets as "Venus-like". To support practical approaches for exo-Venus characterization with JWST, we use Venus-like atmospheric models with self-consistent cloud formation of the seven TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets to investigate the atmospheric depth that can be probed using both transmission and emission spectroscopy. We find that JWST/MIRI LRS secondary eclipse emission spectroscopy in the 6 $\mu$m opacity window could probe at least an order of magnitude deeper pressures than transmission spectroscopy, potentially allowing access to the sub-cloud atmosphere for the two hot innermost TRAPPIST-1 planets. In addition, we identify two confounding effects of sulfuric acid aerosols that may carry strong implications for the characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with transmission spectroscopy: (1) there exists an ambiguity between cloud-top and solid surface in producing the observed spectral continuum; and (2) the cloud-forming region drops in altitude with semi-major axis, causing an increase in the observable cloud-top pressure with decreasing stellar insolation. Taken together, these effects could produce a trend of thicker atmospheres observed at lower stellar insolation---a convincing false positive for atmospheric escape and an empirical "cosmic shoreline". However, developing observational and theoretical techniques to identify Venus-like exoplanets and discriminate them from stellar windswept worlds will enable advances in the emerging field of terrestrial comparative planetology., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

Terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs may soon be observed with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to characterize their atmospheric composition and search for signs of habitability or life. These planets may undergo significant atmospheric and ocean loss due to the superluminous pre-main-sequence phase of their host stars, which may leave behind abiotically-generated oxygen, a false positive for the detection of life. Determining if ocean loss has occurred will help assess potential habitability and whether or not any O2 detected is biogenic. In the solar system, differences in isotopic abundances have been used to infer the history of ocean loss and atmospheric escape (e.g. Venus, Mars). We find that isotopologue measurements using transit transmission spectra of terrestrial planets around late-type M dwarfs like TRAPPIST-1 may be possible with JWST, if the escape mechanisms and resulting isotopic fractionation were similar to Venus. We present analyses of post-ocean-loss O2- and CO2-dominated atmospheres, containing a range of trace gas abundances. Isotopologue bands are likely detectable throughout the near-infrared (1-8 um), especially 3-4 um, although not in CO2-dominated atmospheres. For Venus-like D/H ratios 100 times that of Earth, TRAPPIST-1 b transit signals of up to 79 ppm are possible by observing HDO. Similarly, 18O/16O ratios 100 times that of Earth produce signals at up to 94 ppm. Detection at S/N=5 may be attained on these bands with as few as four to eleven transits, with optimal use of JWST NIRSpec Prism. Consequently, H2O and CO2 isotopologues could be considered as indicators of past ocean loss and atmospheric escape for JWST observations of terrestrial planets around M dwarfs., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, accepted to The Astronomical Journal

We are now on a clear trajectory for improvements in exoplanet observations that will revolutionize our ability to characterize their atmospheric structure, composition, and circulation, from gas giants to rocky planets. However, exoplanet atmospheric models capable of interpreting the upcoming observations are often limited by insufficiencies in the laboratory and theoretical data that serve as critical inputs to atmospheric physical and chemical tools. Here we provide an up-to-date and condensed description of areas where laboratory and/or ab initio investigations could fill critical gaps in our ability to model exoplanet atmospheric opacities, clouds, and chemistry, building off a larger 2016 white paper, and endorsed by the NAS Exoplanet Science Strategy report. Now is the ideal time for progress in these areas, but this progress requires better access to, understanding of, and training in the production of spectroscopic data as well as a better insight into chemical reaction kinetics both thermal and radiation-induced at a broad range of temperatures. Given that most published efforts have emphasized relatively Earth-like conditions, we can expect significant and enlightening discoveries as emphasis moves to the exotic atmospheres of exoplanets., Comment: Submitted as an Astro2020 Science White Paper

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will offer the first opportunity to characterize terrestrial exoplanets with sufficient precision to identify high mean molecular weight atmospheres, and TRAPPIST-1's seven known transiting Earth-sized planets are particularly favorable targets. To assist community preparations for JWST, we use simulations of plausible post-ocean-loss and habitable environments for the TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets, and test simulations of all bright object time series spectroscopy modes and all MIRI photometry filters to determine optimal observing strategies for atmospheric detection and characterization using both transmission and emission observations. We find that transmission spectroscopy with NIRSpec Prism is optimal for detecting terrestrial, CO2 containing atmospheres, potentially in fewer than 10 transits for all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets, if they lack high altitude aerosols. If the TRAPPIST-1 planets possess Venus-like H2SO4 aerosols, up to 12 times more transits may be required to detect atmospheres. We present optimal instruments and observing modes for the detection of individual molecular species in a given terrestrial atmosphere and an observational strategy for discriminating between evolutionary states. We find that water may be prohibitively difficult to detect in both Venus-like and habitable atmospheres due to its presence lower in the atmosphere where transmission spectra are less sensitive. Although the presence of biogenic O2 and O3 will be extremely challenging to detect, abiotically produced oxygen from past ocean loss may be detectable for all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets via O2-O2 collisionally-induced absorption at 1.06 and 1.27 microns, or via NIR O3 features for the outer three planets. Our results constitute a suite of hypotheses on the nature and detectability of highly-evolved terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres that may be tested with JWST., Comment: 37 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

While recently discovered exotic new planet-types have both challenged our imaginations and broadened our knowledge of planetary system workings, perhaps the most compelling objective of exoplanet science is to detect and characterize habitable and possibly inhabited worlds orbiting in other star systems. For the foreseeable future, characterizations of extrasolar planets will be made via remote sensing of planetary spectroscopic and temporal signals, along with careful fitting of this data to advanced models of planets and their atmospheres. Terrestrial planets are small and significantly more challenging to observe compared to their larger gaseous brethren; however observatories coming on-line in the coming decade will begin to allow their characterization. Still, it is not enough to invest only in observational endeavors. Comprehensive modeling of planetary atmospheres is required in order to fully understand what it is that our grand telescopes see in the night-sky. In our quest to characterize habitable, and possibly inhabited worlds, 3D general circulation models (GCMs) should be used to evaluate potential climate states and their associated temporal and spatial dependent observable signals. 3D models allow for coupled, self-consistent, multi-dimensional simulations, which can realistically simulate the climates of terrestrial extrasolar planets. A complete theoretical understanding of terrestrial exoplanetary atmospheres, gained through comprehensive 3D modeling, is critical for interpreting spectra of exoplanets taken from current and planned instruments, and is critical for designing future missions that aim to measure spectra of potentially habitable exoplanets as one of their key science goals. We recommend continued institutional support for 3D GCM modeling teams that focus on planetary and exoplanetary applications., Comment: NAS ASTRO 2020, White Paper! 2 figures, and 10 pages

Rotational mapping and glint are two proposed methods to directly detect liquid water on the surface of habitable exoplanets. However, false positives for both methods may prevent the unambiguous detection of exoplanet oceans. We use simulations of Earth as an exoplanet to introduce a combination of multiwavelength, multiphase, time-series direct-imaging observations and accompanying analyses that may improve the robustness of exoplanet ocean detection by spatially mapping the ocean glint signal. As the planet rotates, the glint spot appears to "blink" as Lambertian scattering continents interrupt the specular reflection from the ocean. This manifests itself as a strong source of periodic variability in crescent-phase reflected light curves. We invert these light curves to constrain the longitudinal slice maps and apparent albedo of two surfaces at both quadrature and crescent phase. At crescent phase, the retrieved apparent albedo of ocean-bearing longitudinal slices is increased by a factor of 5, compared to the albedo at quadrature phase, due to the contribution from glint. The land-bearing slices exhibit no significant change in apparent albedo with phase. The presence of forward-scattering clouds in our simulated observation increases the overall reflectivity toward crescent, but clouds do not correlate with any specific surfaces, thereby allowing for the phase-dependent glint effect to be interpreted as distinct from cloud scattering. Retrieving the same longitudinal map at quadrature and crescent phases may be used to tie changes in the apparent albedo with phase back to specific geographic surfaces, although this requires ideal geometries. We estimate that crescent-phase time-dependent glint detections are feasible for between 1-10 habitable zone exoplanets orbiting the nearest G, K, and M dwarfs using a space-based, high-contrast, direct-imaging telescope with a diameter >6 m., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, published in AJ

We derive analytic, closed form, numerically stable solutions for the total flux received from a spherical planet, moon or star during an occultation if the specific intensity map of the body is expressed as a sum of spherical harmonics. Our expressions are valid to arbitrary degree and may be computed recursively for speed. The formalism we develop here applies to the computation of stellar transit light curves, planetary secondary eclipse light curves, and planet-planet/planet-moon occultation light curves, as well as thermal (rotational) phase curves. In this paper we also introduce STARRY, an open-source package written in C++ and wrapped in Python that computes these light curves. The algorithm in STARRY is six orders of magnitude faster than direct numerical integration and several orders of magnitude more precise. STARRY also computes analytic derivatives of the light curves with respect to all input parameters for use in gradient-based optimization and inference, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), allowing users to quickly and efficiently fit observed light curves to infer properties of a celestial body's surface map., Comment: 55 pages, 20 figures. Accepted to the Astronomical Journal. Check out the code at https://github.com/rodluger/starry

The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system provides an unprecedented opportunity to study terrestrial exoplanet evolution with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and ground-based observatories. Since M dwarf planets likely experience extreme volatile loss, the TRAPPIST-1 planets may have highly-evolved, possibly uninhabitable atmospheres. We used a versatile, 1D terrestrial-planet climate model with line-by-line radiative transfer and mixing length convection (VPL Climate) coupled to a terrestrial photochemistry model to simulate environmental states for the TRAPPIST-1 planets. We present equilibrium climates with self-consistent atmospheric compositions, and observational discriminants of post-runaway, desiccated, 10-100 bar O2- and CO2-dominated atmospheres, including interior outgassing, as well as for water-rich compositions. Our simulations show a range of surface temperatures, most of which are not habitable, although an aqua-planet TRAPPIST-1 e could maintain a temperate surface given Earth-like geological outgassing and CO2. We find that a desiccated TRAPPIST-1 h may produce habitable surface temperatures beyond the maximum greenhouse distance. Potential observational discriminants for these atmospheres in transmission and emission spectra are influenced by photochemical processes and aerosol formation, and include collision-induced oxygen absorption (O2-O2), and O3, CO, SO2, H2O, and CH4 absorption features, with transit signals of up to 200 ppm. Our simulated transmission spectra are consistent with K2, HST, and Spitzer observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets. For several terrestrial atmospheric compositions, we find that TRAPPIST-1 b is unlikely to produce aerosols. These results can inform JWST observation planning and data interpretation for the TRAPPIST-1 system and other M dwarf terrestrial planets., Comment: 44 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

The discovery of a truly habitable exoplanet would be one of the most important events in the history of science. However, the nature and distribution of habitable environments on exoplanets is currently unconstrained. The exoplanet revolution teaches us to expect surprises. Thus, versatile, capable observatories, and multiple observation techniques are needed to study the full diversity of habitable environments. Here, we summarize the challenges and opportunities of observing planets orbiting M dwarf vs. FGK dwarfs, which are best targeted with different methods., Comment: A white paper submitted to the National Academy of Sciences Exoplanet Science Strategy

We explore the occurrence and detectability of planet-planet occultations (PPOs) in exoplanet systems. These are events during which a planet occults the disk of another planet in the same system, imparting a small photometric signal as its thermal or reflected light is blocked. We focus on the planets in TRAPPIST-1, whose orbital planes we show are aligned to within 0.3 degrees at 90% confidence. We present a photodynamical model for predicting and computing PPOs in TRAPPIST-1 and other systems for various assumptions of the planets' atmospheric states. When marginalizing over the uncertainties on all orbital parameters, we find that the rate of PPOs in TRAPPIST-1 is about 1.4 per day. We investigate the prospects for detection of these events with the James Webb Space Telescope, finding that ~10-20 occultations per year of b and c should be above the noise level at 12-15 microns. Joint modeling of several of these PPOs could lead to a robust detection. Alternatively, observations with the proposed Origins Space Telescope should be able to detect individual PPOs at high signal-to-noise. We show how PPOs can be used to break transit timing variation degeneracies, imposing strong constraints on the eccentricities and masses of the planets, as well as to constrain the longitudes of nodes and thus the complete three-dimensional structure of the system. We further show how modeling of these events can be used to reveal a planet's day/night temperature contrast and construct crude surface maps. We make our photodynamical code available on github., Comment: 36 pages, 25 figures. Accepted to ApJ. Multi-purpose photodynamical code available at github.com/rodluger/planetplanet

Unmixing the disk-integrated spectra of exoplanets provides hints about heterogeneous surfaces that we cannot directly resolve in the foreseeable future. It is particularly important for terrestrial planets with diverse surface compositions like Earth. Although previous work on unmixing the spectra of Earth from disk-integrated multi-band light curves appeared successful, we point out a mathematical degeneracy between the surface colors and their spatial distributions. Nevertheless, useful constraints on the spectral shape of individual surface types may be obtained from the premise that albedo is everywhere between 0 and 1. We demonstrate the degeneracy and the possible constraints using both mock data based on a toy model of Earth, as well as real observations of Earth. Despite the severe degeneracy, we are still able to recover an approximate albedo spectrum for an ocean. In general, we find that surfaces are easier to identify when they cover a large fraction of the planet and when their spectra approach zero or unity in certain bands., Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, published in AJ. Minor text updates from previous version

Here we review how environmental context can be used to interpret whether O2 is a biosignature in extrasolar planetary observations. This paper builds on the overview of current biosignature research discussed in Schwieterman et al. (2017), and provides an in-depth, interdisciplinary example of biosignature identification and observation that serves as a basis for the development of the general framework for biosignature assessment described in Catling et al., (2017). O2 is a potentially strong biosignature that was originally thought to be an unambiguous indicator for life at high-abundance. We describe the coevolution of life with the early Earth's environment, and how the interplay of sources and sinks in the planetary environment may have resulted in suppression of O2 release into the atmosphere for several billion years, a false negative for biologically generated O2. False positives may also be possible, with recent research showing potential mechanisms in exoplanet environments that may generate relatively high abundances of atmospheric O2 without a biosphere being present. These studies suggest that planetary characteristics that may enhance false negatives should be considered when selecting targets for biosignature searches. Similarly our ability to interpret O2 observed in an exoplanetary atmosphere is also crucially dependent on environmental context to rule out false positive mechanisms. We describe future photometric, spectroscopic and time-dependent observations of O2 and the planetary environment that could increase our confidence that any observed O2 is a biosignature, and help discriminate it from potential false positives. By observing and understanding O2 in its planetary context we can increase our confidence in the remote detection of life, and provide a model for biosignature development for other proposed biosignatures., Comment: 55 pages. The paper is the second in a series of 5 review manuscripts of the NExSS Exoplanet Biosignatures Workshop. Community commenting is solicited at https://nexss.info/groups/ebwww

We examine the feasibility of detecting auroral emission from the potentially habitable exoplanet Proxima Centauri b. Detection of aurorae would yield an independent confirmation of the planet's existence, constrain the presence and composition of its atmosphere, and determine the planet's eccentricity and inclination, thereby breaking the mass-inclination degeneracy. If Proxima Centauri b is a terrestrial world with an Earth-like atmosphere and magnetic field, we estimate the power at the 5577\AA\ OI auroral line is on the order of 0.1 TW under steady-state stellar wind, or ${\sim} 100 {\times}$ stronger than that on Earth. This corresponds to a planet-star contrast ratio of $10^{-6}-10^{-7}$ in a narrow band about the 5577\AA\ line, although higher contrast ($10^{-4}-10^{-5}$) may be possible during periods of strong magnetospheric disturbance (auroral power $1-10$ TW). We searched the Proxima Centauri b HARPS data for the 5577\AA\ line and for other prominent oxygen and nitrogen lines, but find no signal, indicating that the OI auroral line contrast must be lower than $2\times 10^{-2}$ (with power $\lesssim$ 3,000 TW), consistent with our predictions. We find that observations of 0.1 TW auroral emission lines are likely infeasible with current and planned telescopes. However, future observations with a space-based coronagraphic telescope or a ground-based extremely large telescope (ELT) with a coronagraph could push sensitivity down to terawatt oxygen aurorae (contrast $7\times 10^{-6}$) with exposure times of ${\sim} 1$ day. If a coronagraph design contrast of $10^{-7}$ can be achieved with negligible instrumental noise, a future concept ELT could observe steady-state auroral emission in a few nights., Comment: 19 pages, 4 tables, 10 figures. Accepted to ApJ

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here we use 1D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for evolutionary scenarios predicted in our companion paper (Barnes et al., 2016). These include high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with either oxidizing or reducing compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b, but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere, and JWST observations longward of 7 microns could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST, but may be within the reach of larger aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthesis. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 {\mu}m would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4 and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer., Comment: 93 pages, 36 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to Astrobiology

We analyze the evolution of the potentially habitable planet Proxima Centauri b to identify environmental factors that affect its long-term habitability. We consider physical processes acting on size scales ranging from the galactic to the stellar system to the planet's core. We find that there is a significant probability that Proxima Centauri has had encounters with its companion stars, Alpha Centauri A and B, that are close enough to destabilize an extended planetary system. If the system has an additional planet, as suggested by the discovery data, then it may perturb planet b's eccentricity and inclination, possibly driving those parameters to non-zero values, even in the presence of strong tidal damping. We also model the internal evolution of the planet, evaluating the roles of different radiogenic abundances and tidal heating and find that magnetic field generation is likely for billions of years. We find that if planet b formed in situ, then it experienced 169 +/- 13 million years in a runaway greenhouse as the star contracted during its formation. This early phase could remove up to 5 times as much water as in the modern Earth's oceans, possibly producing a large abiotic oxygen atmosphere. On the other hand, if Proxima Centauri b formed with a substantial hydrogen atmosphere (0.01 - 1% of the planet's mass), then this envelope could have shielded the water long enough for it to be retained before being blown off itself. After modeling this wide range of processes we conclude that water retention during the host star's pre-main sequence phase is the biggest obstacle for Proxima b's habitability. These results are all obtained with a new software package called VPLANET., Comment: 46 pages, 25 figures. Final version, includes corrected geophysical evolution and expanded analysis orbital/rotational evolution and atmosphere loss