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Introduction: The embryonic thermal programming (TM) in birds has been shown to impact several physiological parameters such as resistance to thermal stress, muscle growth or immunity. In mule ducks, it has recently been shown that TM can induce metabolic programming resulting in increased liver weight and fat storage after overfeeding. However, a decrease in hatchability and foie gras quality was also observed, suggesting that this technique needs to be optimized. Here, we tested a new thermal manipulation condition determined with the objective of avoiding negative impacts while maintaining or improving liver properties.Methods: The eggs of the control group were incubated at 37.6°C during the whole incubation period while those of the experimental group (TM group) were incubated at 39.3°C 16 h/24 h from the 11th day of incubation to the 21st. After hatching, all the animals were fed and raised under the same conditions until the age of 12 weeks. At this stage, one part of the animals was overfed and then slaughtered 2 h (to measure rapid changes in metabolism) or 10 h after the last meal (to obtain the best technological yields), while the other part was ration-fed and slaughtered 2 h after the last meal, at the same age.Results: An 8% increase in foie gras production was measured in the TM group compared to the control group without altering the quality of the final product (nor hatchability), confirming the successful optimization of the metabolic programming. Interestingly, these results allowed us not to reject the previously suggested hypothesis of a potential delay in metabolic processes involved in liver fattening in programmed animals, in particular by measuring a trend reversal regarding the amount of total hepatic lipids in both groups at 2 h and then 10 h after the last meal.Discussion: This study therefore validates the optimization of metabolic programming by embryonic thermal manipulation for duck liver fattening. The understanding of the mechanisms of embryonic thermal programming in birds remains today very incomplete and the search for epigenetic marks (main hypothesis of the concept of programming) at the origin of the observed phenotypes could be the next step of this work. more...

Protein turnover, a highly regulated process governed by the ubiquitin–proteasome system (UPS), is essential for maintaining cellular homeostasis. Dysregulation of the UPS has been implicated in various diseases, including viral infections and cancer, making the proteins in the UPS attractive targets for therapeutic intervention. However, the functional and structural redundancies of UPS enzymes present challenges in identifying precise drug targets and achieving target selectivity. Consequently, only 26S proteasome inhibitors have successfully advanced to clinical use thus far. To overcome these obstacles, engineered peptides and proteins, particularly engineered ubiquitin, have emerged as promising alternatives. In this review, we examine the impact of engineered ubiquitin on UPS and non-UPS proteins, as well as on viral enzymes. Furthermore, we explore their potential to guide the development of small molecules targeting novel surfaces, thereby expanding the range of druggable targets. more...

Calculating a multi-model mean, a commonly used method for ensemble averaging, assumes model independence and equal model skill. Sharing of model components amongst families of models and research centres, conflated by growing ensemble size, means model independence cannot be assumed and is hard to quantify. We present a methodology to produce a weighted-model ensemble projection, accounting for model performance and model independence. Model weights are calculated by comparing model hindcasts to a selection of metrics chosen for their physical relevance to the process or phenomena of interest. This weighting methodology is applied to the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ensemble to investigate Antarctic ozone depletion and subsequent recovery. The weighted mean projects an ozone recovery to 1980 levels, by 2056 with a 95 % confidence interval (2052–2060), 4 years earlier than the most recent study. Perfect-model testing and out-of-sample testing validate the results and show a greater projective skill than a standard multi-model mean. Interestingly, the construction of a weighted mean also provides insight into model performance and dependence between the models. This weighting methodology is robust to both model and metric choices and therefore has potential applications throughout the climate and chemistry–climate modelling communities. more...

The present work deals with the spatial consistency of two well-known databases of solar radiation received at ground level: the CAMS Radiation Service database version 3.2, abbreviated as CAMS-Rad and the HelioClim-3 database version 5, abbreviated as HC3v5. Both databases are derived from satellite images. They are validated against 10 min means of irradiance for the period 2010–2018 recorded in a network of 26 ground stations in Germany operated by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). For the CAMS-Rad database, the correlation coefficient between ground measurements and estimates ranges between 0.83 and 0.92 for all sky conditions. The bias ranges from −41 and 32 W m−2 (−11 % and 10 % of the mean irradiance). The standard deviation ranges between 89 and 129 W m−2 (25 % and 39 %). For the HC3v5 database, the correlation coefficient ranges between 0.90 and 0.95. The bias and the standard deviation are comprised between −22 and 16 W m−2 (−6 % and 5 %), and between respectively 70 and 104 W m−2 (20 % and 31 %). For the CAMS Rad database, overestimation is observed in the South, and underestimation in the North with a faint tendency of the bias to increase from East to West. For the HC3v5 database, the bias is fairly homogeneous across Germany. For both databases, there is no noticeable spatial trend in the standard deviation. more...

The present work deals with two well-known databases of hourly mean of solar irradiance that are derived from satellite imagery: the CAMS Radiation Service version 3.2, abbreviated as CAMS-Rad and part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service version 3.2 (CAMS), and the HelioClim-3 version 5, abbreviated as HC3v5. It adds up to the continuous documentation of these two databases that demonstrates that both databases capture the temporal and spatial variability of the solar radiation and are reliable sources of data. The spatial consistency of the uncertainties of these databases is verified against measurements performed within a dense network of ground stations in the Netherlands from the Royal Meteorological Institute KNMI for the period 2014–2017. For the CAMS-Rad database, the correlation coefficients between ground measurements and estimates are around 0.94–0.97 for irradiance E and 0.85–0.89 for clearness index KT. The bias ranges between −12 and 27 W m−2 (−4 % and 10 %). The standard deviation for E is almost constant at all stations and around 67 W m−2 (24 %) except at Valkenburg (57 W m−2, 20 %) and De Bilt (73 W m−2, 27 %). For this database, the statistical indicators are constant at inland stations showing the spatial consistency of the performances of CAMS-Rad dataset. At seashore stations, statistical indicators are more variable. The sea proximity influences CAMS-Rad performances and a weak spatial consistency is observed near seashore. For the HC3v5 database, the correlation coefficients are around 0.96–0.98 for E and 0.86–0.91 for KT. The bias ranges between −3 and 15 W m−2 (−1 % and 5 %). The standard deviation ranges between 48 (17 %) and 60 W m−2 (22 %). It is constant at inland stations and around 54 W m−2 (20 %) with peaks at Ell (59 W m−2, 21 %) and De Bilt (60 W m−2, 22 %). For this database, statistical indicators are constant at all stations as a whole, showing a strong spatial consistency of uncertainties. An exception is the standard deviation which tends to decrease at the seashore stations and is close to 50 W m−2 (17 %); this could be related to the general trend of decreasing standard deviation with increasing KT already reported in the scientific literature. As a whole, it is found that both databases are reliable sources on solar radiation in the Netherlands. more...

The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate simulations to aid in capturing the atmospheric response to solar cycle variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the representation of the 11-year solar cycle ozone response (SOR) in chemistry–climate models (CCMs) and in pre-calculated ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry, with a special focus on comparing the recommended protocols for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with results from three ozone databases for climate models: the Bodeker Scientific ozone database, the SPARC/Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate (AC&C) ozone database for CMIP5 and the SPARC/CCMI ozone database for CMIP6. The peak amplitude of the annual mean SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases by more than a factor of 2, from around 5 to 2 %, between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. This substantial decrease can be traced to the CMIP5 ozone database being constructed from a regression model fit to satellite and ozonesonde measurements, while the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database therefore implicitly resembles the SOR in the CCMI-1 models. The structure in latitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows unrealistic sharp gradients in the SOR across the middle latitudes owing to the paucity of long-term ozone measurements in polar regions. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and the CCMI-1 models show a seasonal dependence with enhanced meridional gradients at mid- to high latitudes in the winter hemisphere. The CMIP5 ozone database does not account for seasonal variations in the SOR, which is unrealistic. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the atmospheric impacts of changes in the representation of the SOR and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The larger amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database compared to CMIP6 causes a likely overestimation of the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response between 11-year solar cycle minimum and maximum by up to 0.55 K, or around 80 % of the total amplitude. This effect is substantially larger than the change in temperature response due to differences in SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasize the importance of adequately representing the SOR in global models to capture the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, we recommend that CMIP6 models without chemistry use the CMIP6 ozone database and the CMIP6 SSI dataset to better capture the climate impacts of solar variability. The SOR coefficients from the CMIP6 ozone database are published with this paper. more...

Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century. more...

>We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models. more...

HelioClim-3v4 (HC3v4), HelioClim-3v5 (HC3v5) and the radiation service version 2 of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS-Rad) are databases that contain hourly values of solar radiation at ground level. These estimated hourly irradiations are compared to coincident measurements made at five stations in Morocco. The correlation coefficients between measurements and estimates are similar for the three databases and around 0.97–0.98 for global irradiation. For the direct irradiation, the correlation coefficients are around 0.70–0.79 for HC3v4, 0.79–0.84 for HC3v5 and 0.78–0.87 for CAMS-Rad. For global irradiation, the bias relative to the average of the measurements is small and ranges between −6 and −1 % for HC3v4, −4 and 0 % for HC3v5, and −4 and 7 % for CAMS-Rad; HC3v4 and HC3v5 exhibit a tendency to slightly underestimate the global irradiation. The root mean square error (RMSE) ranges between 53 (12 %) and 72 Wh m−2 (13 %) for HC3v4, 55 (12 %) and 71 Wh m−2 (13 %) for HC3v5, and 59 (11 %) and 97 Wh m−2 (21 %) for CAMS-Rad. For the direct irradiation, the relative bias ranges between −16 and 21 % for HC3v4, −7 and 22 % for HC3v5, and −18 and 7 % for CAMS-Rad. The RMSE ranges between 170 (28 %) and 210 Wh m−2 (33 %) for HC3v4, 153 (25 %) and 209 Wh m−2 (40 %) for HC3v5, and 159 (26 %) and 244 Wh m−2 (39 %) for CAMS-Rad. HC3v5 captures the temporal and spatial variability of the irradiation field well. The performance is poorer for HC3v4 and CAMS-Rad which exhibit more variability from site to site. As a whole, the three databases are reliable sources on solar radiation in Morocco. more...

The tropical stratospheric ozone response to solar UV variations associated with the rotational cycle (∼ 27 days) is analyzed using MLS satellite observations and numerical simulations from the LMDz-Reprobus chemistry–climate model. The model is used in two configurations, as a chemistry-transport model (CTM) where dynamics are nudged toward ERA-Interim reanalysis and as a chemistry–climate model (free-running) (CCM). An ensemble of five 17-year simulations (1991–2007) is performed with the CCM. All simulations are forced by reconstructed time-varying solar spectral irradiance from the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance model. We first examine the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle during two 3-year periods which correspond to the declining phases of solar cycle 22 (October 1991–September 1994) and solar cycle 23 (September 2004–August 2007), when the satellite ozone observations of the two Microwave Limb Sounders (UARS MLS and Aura MLS) are available. In the observations, during the first period, ozone and UV flux are found to be correlated between about 10 and 1 hPa with a maximum of 0.29 at ∼ 5 hPa; the ozone sensitivity (% change in ozone for 1 % change in UV) peaks at ∼ 0.4. Correlation during the second period is weaker and has a peak ozone sensitivity of only 0.2, possibly due to the fact that the solar forcing is weaker during that period. The CTM simulation reproduces most of these observed features, including the differences between the two periods. The CCM ensemble mean results comparatively show much smaller differences between the two periods, suggesting that the amplitude of the rotational ozone signal estimated from MLS observations or the CTM simulation is strongly influenced by other (non-solar) sources of variability, notably dynamics. The analysis of the ensemble of CCM simulations shows that the estimation of the ensemble mean ozone sensitivity does not vary significantly either with the amplitude of the solar rotational fluctuations or with the size of the time window used for the ozone sensitivity retrieval. In contrast, the uncertainty of the ozone sensitivity estimate significantly increases during periods of decreasing amplitude of solar rotational fluctuations (also coinciding with minimum phases of the solar cycle), and for decreasing size of the time window analysis. We found that a minimum of 3- and 10-year time window is needed for the 1σ uncertainty to drop below 50 and 20 %, respectively. These uncertainty sources may explain some of the discrepancies found in previous estimates of the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle. more...

We validate the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Ozone Profile (PROFOZ) product from October 2004 through December 2014 retrieved by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) algorithm against ozonesonde observations. We also evaluate the effects of OMI row anomaly (RA) on the retrieval by dividing the dataset into before and after the occurrence of serious OMI RA, i.e., pre-RA (2004–2008) and post-RA (2009–2014). The retrieval shows good agreement with ozonesondes in the tropics and midlatitudes and for pressure ∼ 50 hPa after applying OMI averaging kernels to ozonesonde data. The MBs of the stratospheric ozone column (SOC, the ozone column from the tropopause pressure to the ozonesonde burst pressure) are within 2 % with SDs of ∼ 50 hPa. The SOC MBs increase up to 3 % with SDs as great as 6 % and the TOC SDs increase up to 30 %. The comparison generally degrades at larger solar zenith angles (SZA) due to weaker signals and additional sources of error, leading to worse performance at high latitudes and during the midlatitude winter. Agreement also degrades with increasing cloudiness for pressure > ∼ 100 hPa and varies with cross-track position, especially with large MBs and SDs at extreme off-nadir positions. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the post-RA comparison is considerably worse with larger SDs reaching 2 % in the stratosphere and 8 % in the troposphere and up to 6 % in TOC. There are systematic differences that vary with latitude compared to the pre-RA comparison. The retrieval comparison demonstrates good long-term stability during the pre-RA period but exhibits a statistically significant trend of 0.14–0.7 % year−1 for pressure −1 in SOC, and −0. 33 DU year−1 in TOC during the post-RA period. The spatiotemporal variation of retrieval performance suggests the need to improve OMI's radiometric calibration especially during the post-RA period to maintain the long-term stability and reduce the latitude/season/SZA and cross-track dependency of retrieval quality. more...

Variations in tropical lower-stratospheric humidity influence both the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in 21st century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs), using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends and variability. Within CCMs, warming of the troposphere primarily drives the long-term trend in stratospheric humidity. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to a regression of a decade of observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with these observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency is that most CCMs underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower-stratospheric water vapor. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric humidity. more...

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry–climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users. more...

The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used. more...

The ozone profile records of a large number of limb and occultation satellite instruments are widely used to address several key questions in ozone research. Further progress in some domains depends on a more detailed understanding of these data sets, especially of their long-term stability and their mutual consistency. To this end, we made a systematic assessment of 14 limb and occultation sounders that, together, provide more than three decades of global ozone profile measurements. In particular, we considered the latest operational Level-2 records by SAGE II, SAGE III, HALOE, UARS MLS, Aura MLS, POAM II, POAM III, OSIRIS, SMR, GOMOS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS and MAESTRO. Central to our work is a consistent and robust analysis of the comparisons against the ground-based ozonesonde and stratospheric ozone lidar networks. It allowed us to investigate, from the troposphere up to the stratopause, the following main aspects of satellite data quality: long-term stability, overall bias and short-term variability, together with their dependence on geophysical parameters and profile representation. In addition, it permitted us to quantify the overall consistency between the ozone profilers. Generally, we found that between 20 and 40 km the satellite ozone measurement biases are smaller than ±5 %, the short-term variabilities are less than 5–12 % and the drifts are at most ±5 % decade−1 (or even ±3 % decade−1 for a few records). The agreement with ground-based data degrades somewhat towards the stratopause and especially towards the tropopause where natural variability and low ozone abundances impede a more precise analysis. In part of the stratosphere a few records deviate from the preceding general conclusions; we identified biases of 10 % and more (POAM II and SCIAMACHY), markedly higher single-profile variability (SMR and SCIAMACHY) and significant long-term drifts (SCIAMACHY, OSIRIS, HALOE and possibly GOMOS and SMR as well). Furthermore, we reflected on the repercussions of our findings for the construction, analysis and interpretation of merged data records. Most notably, the discrepancies between several recent ozone profile trend assessments can be mostly explained by instrumental drift. This clearly demonstrates the need for systematic comprehensive multi-instrument comparison analyses. more...

Traditional validation of atmospheric profiles is based on the intercomparison of two or more data sets in predefined ranges or classes of a given observational characteristic such as latitude or solar zenith angle. In this study we trained a self-organising map (SOM) with a full time series of relative difference profiles of SCIAMACHY limb v5.02 and lidar ozone profiles from seven observation sites. Each individual observation characteristic was then mapped to the obtained SOM to investigate to which degree variation in this characteristic is explanatory for the variation seen in the SOM map. For the studied data sets, altitude-dependent relations for the global data set were found between the difference profiles and studied variables. From the lowest altitude studied (18 km) ascending, the most influencing factors were found to be longitude, followed by solar zenith angle and latitude, sensor age and again solar zenith angle together with the day of the year at the highest altitudes studied here (up to 45 km). After accounting for both latitude and longitude, residual partial correlations with a reduced magnitude are seen for various factors. However, (partial) correlations cannot point out which (combination) of the factors drives the observed differences between the ground-based and satellite ozone profiles as most of the factors are inter-related. Clustering into three classes showed that there are also some local dependencies, with for instance one cluster having a much stronger correlation with the sensor age (days since launch) between 36 and 42 km. The proposed SOM-based approach provides a powerful tool for the exploration of differences between data sets without being limited to a priori defined data subsets. more...

The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability. more...

Background: The therapeutic approach to chronic aspecific low back pain (CALBP) has to consider the multifactorial aetiology of the disorder. International guidelines do not agree on unequivocal treatment indications. Recommendations for fascial therapy are few and of low level evidence but several studies indicate strong correlations between fascial thickness and low back pain. This study aims at comparing the effectiveness of Fascial Manipulation® associated with a physiotherapy program following guidelines for CALBP compared to a physiotherapy program alone. Methods: 24 subjects were randomized into two groups, both received eight treatments over 4 weeks. Outcomes were measured at baseline, at the end of therapy and at a 1 month and a 3 months follow-up. Pain was measured with the visual analogue scale (VAS) and the brief pain inventory (BPI), function with the Rolland-Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), state of well-being with the short-form 36 health-survey (SF-36). The mean clinical important difference (MCID) was also measured. Results: Patients receiving Fascial Manipulation® showed statistically and clinically significant improvements at the end of care for all outcomes, in the short (RMDQ, VAS, BPI) and medium term for VAS and BPI compared to manual therapy. The MCID show significant improvements in the means and percentage of subjects in groups in all outcomes post-treatment, in the short and medium term. Conclusion: Fascial tissues were implicated in the aetiology of CALBP and treatment led to decreased symptomatic, improved functional and perceived well-being outcomes that were of greater amplitude compared to manual therapy alone. more...

Background: The therapeutic approach to chronic aspecific low back pain (CALBP) has to consider the multifactorial aetiology of the disorder. International guidelines do not agree on unequivocal treatment indications. Recommendations for fascial therapy are few and of low level evidence but several studies indicate strong correlations between fascial thickness and low back pain. This study aims at comparing the effectiveness of Fascial Manipulation® associated with a physiotherapy program following guidelines for CALBP compared to a physiotherapy program alone. Methods: 24 subjects were randomized into two groups, both received eight treatments over 4 weeks. Outcomes were measured at baseline, at the end of therapy and at a 1 month and a 3 months follow-up. Pain was measured with the visual analogue scale (VAS) and the brief pain inventory (BPI), function with the Rolland-Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), state of well-being with the short-form 36 health-survey (SF-36). The mean clinical important difference (MCID) was also measured. Results: Patients receiving Fascial Manipulation® showed statistically and clinically significant improvements at the end of care for all outcomes, in the short (RMDQ, VAS, BPI) and medium term for VAS and BPI compared to manual therapy. The MCID show significant improvements in the means and percentage of subjects in groups in all outcomes post-treatment, in the short and medium term. Conclusion: Fascial tissues were implicated in the aetiology of CALBP and treatment led to decreased symptomatic, improved functional and perceived well-being outcomes that were of greater amplitude compared to manual therapy alone. more...

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role. more...

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels. more...

The stellar occultation spectrometer GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) on ESA's Envisat satellite measures vertical profiles O3, NO2 and NO3 with a high long-term stability due to the self-calibrating nature of the technique. More than 6 years of GOMOS data from August 2002 to end 2008 have been analysed to study the inter-annual variation of O3, NO2 and NO3 in the tropics. It is shown that the QBO of the equatorial wind induces variations in the local concentration larger than 10% for O3 and larger than 25% for NO2. Quasi-Biennial Oscillation signals can be found in the evolution of the three constituents up to at least 40 km. We found that NO3 is positively correlated with temperature up to 45 km in the region where it is in chemical equilibrium with O3. Our results confirm the existence of a transition from a dynamical control of O3 below 28 km with O3 correlated with temperature and a chemical/temperature control between 28 and 38 km with O3 anti-correlated with NO2 and temperature. Above 38 km and up to 50 km a different regime is found with O3 and NO2 correlated with each other and anti-correlated with temperature. For the NO2/temperature anti-correlation in the upper stratosphere, our proposed explanation is the modulation of the N2O ascent by the QBO up to 45 km. The oxidation of N2O is the main source of NOy in this altitude region. An enhancement of the ascending motion will cool adiabatically the atmosphere and will increase the amount of N2O concentration available for NOy formation. more...

Temperature profiles measurements are performed daily (00:00 UT) in Dumont d'Urville (66°40' S, 140°01' E) by Météo-France, using standard radiosondes, since the International Geophysical Year in 1957. Yet, due to a 16 years data gap between 1963 and 1978, the entire dataset is only used for a qualitative overview. Only the most recent series, between 1979 and 2008, is used to investigate the inter-annual stratospheric temperatures variability. Over Dumont d'Urville, at the edge of the vortex, the annual mean temperature cooling of about 1 K/decade at 20 km is the result of the cooling trends between 0.5 and 1.4 K/decade, in summer and autumn and a warming of about 1.1 K/decade in spring. These values are consistent with values obtained using data from inner vortex stations, but with smaller amplitude. No statistically significant trend is detected in winter. We propose here the first attempt to link stratospheric temperature trends to Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) trends in Antarctica based on the only continuous 20 years database of PSC lidar detection. Despite the absence of mean temperature trend during winter, the occurrence of temperatures below the NAT threshold between 1989 and 2008 reveals a significant trend of about +6%/decade. The PSCs occurrences frequency exhibits a concomitant trend of about +3%/decade, although not statistically significant. Yet, this is consistent with results obtained in the Northern Hemisphere. Such a possible positive trend in PSC occurrence has to be further explored to be confirmed or invalidated. If confirmed, this PSC trend is likely to have strong impacts, both on ozone recovery and climate evolution in Antarctica. The study also reveals the importance of trends on extreme temperatures, and not only on mean temperatures. more...

A Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) was detected for the first time in January 2006 over Southern Europe after 25 years of systematic lidar observations. This cloud was observed while the polar vortex was highly distorted during the initial phase of a major stratospheric warming. Very cold stratospheric temperatures ( more...

This paper discusses the highlights of the EU-funded "Assimilation of Envisat data" (ASSET) project, which has involved assimilation of Envisat atmospheric constituent and temperature data into systems based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and chemical transport models (CTMs). Envisat was launched in 2002 and is one of the largest Earth Observation (EO) satellites ever built. It carries several sophisticated EO instruments providing insights into chemistry and dynamics of the atmosphere. In this paper we focus on the assimilation of temperature and constituents from Envisat. The overarching theme of the ASSET project has been to bring together experts from all aspects of the data assimilation problem. This has allowed ASSET to address several themes comprehensively: enhancement of NWP analyses by assimilation of research satellite data; studies of the distribution of stratospheric chemical species by assimilation of research satellite data into CTM systems; objective assessment of the quality of ozone analyses; studies of the spatial and temporal evolution of tropospheric pollutants; enhanced retrievals of Envisat data; and data archival and dissemination. Among the results from the ASSET project, many of which are firsts in their field, we can mention: a positive impact on NWP analyses from assimilation of height-resolved stratospheric humidity and temperature data, and assimilation of limb radiances; the extraction of temperature information from the assimilation of chemical species into CTMs; a first intercomparison between ozone assimilation systems; the extraction of information on tropospheric pollution from assimilation of Envisat data; and the large potential of the Envisat MIPAS dataset. This paper discusses these, often novel, developments and results. Finally, achievements of, and recommendations from, the ASSET project are presented. more...