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13 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables, 3 appendixes, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110105, This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment model pymedeas is introduced, which allows the exploration of the design and planning of appropriate strategies and policies for decarbonizing the energy sector at World and EU level. The main novelty of the new open-source model is that it addresses the energy transition by considering biophysical limits, availability of raw materials, and climate change impacts. This paper showcases the model capabilities through several simulation experiments to explore alternative pathways for the renewable transition. In the selected scenarios of this work, future shortage of fossil fuels is found to be the most influential factor of the simulations system evolution. Changes in efficiency and climate change damages are also important determinants influencing model outcomes, This work was supported by the European Union through the funding of the MEDEAS project under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [grant agreement No 69128], With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)

The key policy analyzed in this paper, is the achievement of a significant decarbonization of the Greek Energy System by the year 2050 through the decarbonization of the two sectors presently responsible for the highest levels of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions, namely power and transport. The objective is to reduce GHG emissions by 2050, through the maximization of renewable energy sources (RES) penetration in electricity, with a simultaneous intensive electrification of the transport sector and the electrical interconnection of non-connected islands. An important parameter considered in the present work is that expansion planning of power systems under environmental constraints leads to a rather complex techno-economic analysis involving large scale penetration of Renewable Energy Sources. The penetration level of variable renewable electricity is subject to a number of restrictions implied by the need for (a) storage capacity to decrease the energy curtailment which can occur when the customer load is low and RES electricity generation is high (b) fast reserve capacity to deal with variations of variable RES or combined heat and power (CHP) electricity generation (c) transmission system expansion related to the penetration of areas with high RES potential. New methodologies are developed and a number of novel scenarios are formulated in conformity with the European energy strategy towards 2050.