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To understand the determinants of financial crises, previous research focused on developments closely related to financial markets. In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability. To this end, I assemble a novel data set of long‐run measures of income inequality, productivity, and other macrofinancial indicators for advanced economies. I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises, and their slow‐moving trend components largely explain these relations. Moreover, recessions that are preceded by such developments are deeper than recessions without such ex ante trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We augment a standard dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, in order to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the credit deepening process observed in Latin America in the 2000s—most notably in Brazil. In the model, a stylized banking sector intermediates credit from patient households to impatient households and entrepreneurs. Motivated by the Brazilian experience, we allow the credit constraint faced by households to depend on labor income. Our model is designed to isolate the effects of credit deepening through demand‐side channels, and abstracts from potential effects of credit supply on total factor productivity. In the calibrated model, credit deepening generates only modest above‐trend growth in consumption, investment, and GDP. Since Brazil has experienced one of the most intense credit deepening processes in Latin America, we argue the quantitative effects that hinge on the channels captured by the model are unlikely to be sizable elsewhere in Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Like Mother, Like Daughter?: This article scrutinises local-national linkage in Belgium to better understand territorial power relations in multilevel parties. Drawing on a survey of local chairs of national parties, it adopts an innovative, informal and bottom-up approach. The descriptive analysis reveals two central axes in the morphology of linkage: scope (downward support and upward influence) and surplus (benefits versus costs). However, (the valuation of) this interdependence appears as a matter of degree. The explanatory analysis therefore probes into the effect of macro- (between environments), meso- (between parties) and micro- (within parties) level factors. It demonstrates that variance is explained by different parameters. For scope, differences between parties trump those within them. For surplus, specific differences between parties as well as within them matter. The answer to our guiding question is therefore variegated: it depends on for what and for whom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The case study is the application of a framework based on a systemic intervention and organizational cybernetics, which allows an organizational design of an enterprise of sanitation for its restructuring and reorganization. That is, to immediately make effective innovations for the analysis, diagnosis and organizational design of the enterprise of sanitation. The organizational design evidences a framework of organizational cybernetics and processes, a design of the organizational structure (autonomy, internal balance, balance with the environment, identity and policy mechanism), the viable system model idealized mode, macro processes, processes and sub processes, and complementary to it, the process map of the enterprise. The case study contributes to a particular process of systemic and organizational cybernetics application in the context of the local public sanitation service in the improvement of its management system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on a study that measures the impact of mathematics in the Spanish economy. The study, commissioned by the REM (Strategic Network in Mathematics), concludes that the mathematics is directly responsible of more than one million employed and 10.1 percent of GDP. According to the study, mathematics is a strategic asset that accelerates economic growth.

This paper provides a narrative of Indian monetary policy since the North Atlantic Financial Crisis (NAFC) in the mid‐2008 till the current period. The period 2009–2013 was dominated by the joint monetary and fiscal stimuli of the Indian authorities prompted by the NAFC. These, along with some structural shocks and a hands‐off attitude in forex market intervention, could have had their role in rising inflation and external account instability (leading up to the taper tantrum episode). In such a backdrop, after considerable discussion during 2013–2014, a Monetary Policy Framework Agreement was signed between the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India on February 20, 2015 that formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (IT) in India. While the IT regime so far has coincided with significant reduction in inflation in India, the atmosphere has been benign. Now that fuel prices have started moving in the north‐east direction, the government has proposed a revised framework for the minimum support price in the Union Budget for 2018–2019 and fiscal slippages have started happening, it remains to be seen whether IT can wither more rough weather in the days to come. Finally, in recent years, Indian monetary policy has been dominated by two significant events: the emergence of significant deterioration of Indian public sector balance sheets, and the demonetization episode in November 2016. Monetary policy in both of these periods wrestled with fashioning an appropriate strategy for managing the impossible trinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The macro environment of teachers' professional development involves many factors, including the policies, rules and regulations and the actual development needs of teachers. In terms of the ecological system of Information Technology, from the macro, the factors influencing teachers' survival state includes policy system and teacher training. Based on the questionnaire surveys of three universities with different degrees of Information Technology development, the effect of macro environment on the development of college English teachers' information-based teaching ability is studied and recommendations are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The SOIL and MACRO models with different versions of SOILN initially developed for small field-scales were used to simulate the water flow and nitrate N concentrations at the watershed scale. • Water quantity and quality of two watersheds in Estonia with large percentage of drained peat soils were modelled. • The analysis showed that over the 11 year study period, the average nitrogen loads from drained peat soils were 1.5 times higher than those from clay loam (arable lands). Abstract The SOIL and MACRO models with different versions of SOILN initially developed for small field-scales were used to simulate the water flow and nitrate N concentrations in two watersheds in Estonia that contain large areas of peat soils. Monitoring data show that nitrogen concentrations tend to increase in some rivers even where the human activity is very low. This may be connected to soil self-degradation processes taking place in drained peat soils where it is difficult to use most of the hydrological models. Results show that SOIL, MACRO and SOILN may be successfully applied at the watershed scale to model the water quantity and quality on watersheds with high content of peat soils. The analysis revealed that the nitrate nitrogen level trends depend considerably on the meteorological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies stimulus policies in a simple macroeconomic model featuring a dynamic coordination problem that arises from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, firms face low demand and hence have lower incentives for investing, which reinforces their low‐demand expectations. In a benchmark case with no shocks, the economy might get trapped in a low‐output regime and a social planner would be particularly keen to incentivise investment at times of low economic activity. However, this result vanishes once shocks are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the relationship between GDP volatility and income inequality to explain the changes in both variables in the last decades of 20th century. The theoretical results show that these variables are related to the same parameters of the underlying income microdata. These results are supported by two empirical findings: (i) the simultaneity of the structural breaks in the GDP volatility and income inequality series across five industrialized countries; and (ii) the consistency of the results obtained from decomposing the US GDP volatility and income inequality data with those obtained from the US income microdata. The latter finding explains the diverging trends of the variables during the Great Moderation era. It also finds support for the argument that income inequality gives long-lasting responses to structural economic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents a study developed in a medium port system composed of 50 public and private actors interacting with their macro-environment, which can generate strategic synergistic relationships. In order to determine these synergistic links between their components, the strategic phrases contained in their missions are analysed and classified according to the multi-criteria that are part of the macro-environment of each port actor: political, economic, social, technological, environmental, risk and learning. Likewise, new characterizations and classifications are proposed for groups and sub-groups of port actors. From absolute frequencies, Contingency Tables and the Chi-square test, quantitative results are obtained, which show the potential cases of strategic synergistic relations in the port system and the behavior of each group and sub-group of actors, as well as dependence / independence between every pair of criteria. Finally, it is verified that it is possible to use quantitative methods to analyze the strategic synergistic relationships between the actors of the port system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urgency of the problem stated in the paper is due to the fact that competition is the market basic institution, the most important condition for its effectiveness as a form of economic activity organization. The Competition Institute embodies the market's and the state's organic unity, and therefore the state should act as an instrument for its protection. Maintaining a competitive environment is not an end in itself. The competition promotion is a factor for efficiency increasing both at the micro level and at the level of the national economy as a whole. The competition development should become an organic part of institutional and structural transformations. The purpose of the paper is to analyze critically the multiple definitions and definitions, to substantiate and to identify the logical chain of non-price competition's economic advantages at research various levels on the macro and micro environment of the service enterprise. Methods for studying this problem are: a comparative analysis method, generalization and systematization of facts, methods of factor, graphic, financial analysis, and the method of economic and mathematical modeling. Study structure. The paper substantiates the non-price competition economic advantages, identifies the segments of macro and microenvironments competitive advantages in basic system-forming units, and gives the author's interpretation for the concept "the basis (component) of enterprise competitiveness". Practical value is determined by the possibility to use the proposals developed in the course of the study for a comprehensive improvement of economic policy conducted in the Russian Federation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon finance is considered one of the most efficient methods to address the issue of climate change. The problem of how to establish and improve China's carbon financial system requires theoretical study as well as practical policies. A literature review of the effects of financial macroenvironment on carbon emissions was conducted. The purpose is to investigate the relationships of long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics through the ARDL-ECM model among carbon intensity and macroenvironment factors including financial development, financial innovation, stock market turnover and foreign direct investment. And the former three are proven as long-term drivers of carbon intensity decline while FDI are insignificant to mitigate it. There is also a short-term dynamic adjustment among them. A main contribution to the literature in China studies the methods to reduce carbon intensity by taking into account the role of financial macroenvironment, especially the financing environment. Considering establishing an efficient carbon finance system, indirect financing tools represented by financial development could be more significant than direct financing ones represented by stock market turnover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmentally extended input-output (EEIO) databases are increasingly used to examine environmental footprints of economic activities. Studies focusing on China have independently, repeatedly developed EEIO databases for China. These databases are usually not publicly available, leading to repeated efforts, inconsistent with one another using different approaches, of limited environmental accounts, and lacking transparency, preventing continuous updating. We developed a transparent, comprehensive, and consistent Chinese EEIO database covering a wide period of time (currently 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 for which benchmark input-output tables [IOTs] are available), sector classifications (original sector classifications in benchmark IOTs, a 45-sector classification commonly used in China's environmental and energy statistics, and a 91-sector classification with maximized sector resolution ensuring temporal consistence), and environmental satellite accounts for 256 types of resources and 30 types of pollutants in this study. Moreover, the environmental satellite accounts cover households in addition to sectors, allowing developing closed models. We make this database publicly available with open access for broader dissemination (). We demonstrate the database by evaluating environmental pressures of Chinese products in 2007. Comparisons of our database with previous studies validate its rationality and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the procedures that have previously been used to evaluate indicators. These methods determine whether the indicator correctly classifies periods when there was (not) a recession. These approaches do not show whether or not an indicator signaled a turn or failed to predict it. This paper then presents a new approach and applies it to the term spread series. The results are mixed because the indicator predicts every recession but also generates a large number of false signals. This result may explain why economists do not always place great weight on this series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of an uncertain number of false individual null hypotheses on commonly used p value combination methods. Under such uncertainty, these methods perform quite differently and often yield conflicting results. Consequently, we develop a combination of 'combinations of p values' (CCP) test aimed at maintaining good power properties across such uncertainty. The CCP test is based on a simple union-intersection principle that exploits the weak correspondence between two underlying p value combination methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the CCP test controls size and closely tracks the power of the best individual methods. We empirically apply the CCP test to explore the stationarity in real exchange rates and the information rigidity in inflation and output growth forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses bank balance sheet data in conjunction with macroeconomic and other financial variables. Our aim is to understand the nature of the instability in financial intermediation in the euro area during the recent financial crises. We define 'large changes' as significant departures in the actual evolution of balance sheet variables during the crisis from their historical association with the business and financial cycles. In the course of the global 2008-2009 financial crisis, such 'large changes' were features of the behaviour of cross-border inter-bank flows, both within the euro area and between the euro area and the rest of the world. By contrast, retail assets and liabilities, as well as inter-bank flows among banks of the same country, did not significantly deviate from historical regularities. Since the euro area sovereign crisis of 2011-2012, 'large changes' have been more pervasive. In particular, a significant home bias in the sovereign bond market has emerged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the Rossi and Sekhposyan (Am Econ Rev 105(5): 650-655, 2015) uncertainty index for the Euro Area and its member countries. The index captures how unexpected a forecast error associated with a realization of a macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional distribution of forecast errors. Furthermore, it can differentiate between upside and downside uncertainty, which could be relevant for addressing a variety of economic questions. The index is particularly useful since it can be constructed for any country/variable for which point forecasts and realizations are available. We show the usefulness of the index in studying the heterogeneity of uncertainty across Euro Area countries as well as the spillover effects via a network approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on firms’ reactions to the changing macroeconomic conditions prior to and after the global financial crisis of 2008–09, this article presents evidence for the state dependence of wage setting. Further, the article investigates the underlying mechanisms of state dependence by distinguishing between firms’ general characteristics and financial performance and the environment in which firms operate. The results, based on a survey of Czech firms, show that the frequency of wage adjustment is higher for large firms, foreign-owned firms, firms covered by collective agreements, firms in good financial condition, and firms facing positive shocks, while negative demand shocks and strong competition reduce the frequency of wage adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An introduction is presented which discusses articles within the issue on topics including effects of macro-and micro-level linguistic environments of the English Factory in Japan; role of native brokers in the success of the East India Company; and the complications caused by the embodied nature.

Memories of the fall of the Twin Towers on 9/11 stimulate the pressing nature of a variety of other twins. In 2001 the attack produced a number of stirrings in the twin arenas of the macro environment and the individual soul. Years later, in present time, other twins--love & work, author & spouse, and love & mercy--promise hope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay sketches some contours of what we think can reasonably be called New Austrian macro theory. By New Austrian, macro we mean a style of theorizing that incorporates the core of traditional or Old Austrian macro and pushes that core in new directions by using new analytical tools and methods. We would note that New Austrian is not some invention or construction de novo, but is a product of blending some traditional Austrian insights and formulations with new analytical formulations that were never part of the Austrian tradition but which can multiply the analytical oomph of that tradition. In this essay, we explain that the traditional Austrian macro theory suffers not from analytical wrong-headedness but from an underdevelopment of those complementary pieces of intellectual capital that would render Austrian macro once again a significant player in the efforts of economists to theorize about the properties of economic systems in their entirety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article classifies extreme net capital flow episodes into four types and analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of each type. First, we find that all types of episodes increased drastically in the 2000s relative to previous years. Second, we conclude that liability-flow-driven episodes have more significant macroeconomic impacts than do asset-flow-driven episodes. Third, we show that only drastic positive net capital flows that were driven by liability flows were associated with a higher probability of banking crises in the 2000s. The results suggest that the detailed classification of extreme net capital flows provides insight into these movements’ macroeconomic impacts and policy implementations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study is to evaluate the relationship between crime and economic growth in 27 countries of the European Union in the period of 2004-2014. By using GMM estimators to estimate Panel Var model and Granger causality test, shock effects of crime occurrence on economic growth in these countries are analyzed. Control variables including government expenditure on education, total (% of GDP), investment per capita and population have also been used. Based on the gain results economic growth in relationship to crime occurrence has a significant reaction, but in a negative way, though after a shock on economic growth, crime would have a positive effect. The reason for this can be found in Kuznets curve. Due to the fact that in the early stages of economic growth, there is more income inequality and income inequality leads to crime occurrence, over time the impact of crime on economic growth has decreased and has reached from 9% in the first period to 6.5% in the second. Therefore, the attendance of new countries of East Europe in the EU, by considering the high average of crime in them, can be a threat to the economic growth of other members of the union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of the considerations was to determine the factors determining the variability of milk production in selected macroregions of the European Union. The regions were selected on the basis of the analysis of the diversity of dairy farms FADN in the regions of the European Union, which was determined by the agglomeration cluster analysis using Ward method. In order to highlight the determinants of production there was factor analysis made. On the basis of the results of factor analysis there were factors that have a decisive impact on milk production in dairy farms from areas with a predominance of intensive production identified, and there was a possibility to find out which macro-regions of the European Union reached a relatively best and worst performance in terms of the distinguished factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the effect of the sharp and sustained decline after June 2014 in the global price of crude oil (and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline) on U.S. real GDP growth. Our analysis suggests that this decline produced a cumulative stimulus of about 0.9 percent of real GDP by raising private real consumption and non-oil-related business investment, and an additional stimulus of 0.04 percent, reflecting a shrinking petroleum trade deficit. This stimulative effect, however, has been largely offset by a large reduction in real investment by the oil sector. Hence, the net stimulus since June 2014 has been close to zero. We show that the U.S. economy's response was not fundamentally different from that observed after the oil price decline of 1986. Then as now, the U.S. economy's response is consistent with standard economic models of the transmission of oil price shocks. We find no evidence that frictions in reallocating capital and labor across sectors or increased uncertainty about the price of gasoline explain the sluggish response of U.S. real GDP growth. Nor do we find evidence of financial contagion, of spillovers from oil-related investment to non-oil-related investment, of an increase in household savings, or of households deleveraging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – To reveal the main factors that effect innovative activity of enterprises in Kazakhstan with the use of statistical data: costs of process and product innovation, interrelation of scientific and research funds. Methodology – In this study used scientific methods such as the analysis of the study, comparison and observation Originality / value – This research provides a definition of external and internal factors that effect innovative activity of Kazakhstani enterprises. Data determines current state and the main problems of companies. Findings – Exploring the factors affecting the innovative activity, necessary to pay attention to both the incentive and the deterrent elements. Activity of Kazakhstani enterprises is affected by such factors as the lack of adequate state support of commercialization of innovations, enterprises weak receptivity to innovations. Enterprises are forced to fund the development of innovation on their own, but they are often not radical and the period of implementation is extended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economy has been in downward movement in the past few years in the United States as well as different parts of the world. Consumers' financial situations have been found to influence their purchase behaviors. While some personal finance experts blame consumers' (lack of) spending plans for their financial situations, others suggest that consumers' perception of their financial standing influences their purchase plans. Using two nationwide large scale survey studies, we investigated how the consumer's financial well-being affects planned and unplanned purchasing decisions from two competing perspectives. Supporting our notion of financial well-being as a status, the results revealed consumers with high financial well-being are more likely to make planned purchases and less likely to make unplanned purchases. We also examined the value of applying economic indicators as proxy measure of financial well-being. Instead of income or debts, wealth was found to be the most important economic indicator of financial well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a previous issue of this journal, France and Threadgold [2015. “Youth and Political Economy: Towards a Bourdieusian Approach.”Journal of Youth Studiesdoi:10.1080/13676261.2015.1098779] claim that they ‘strongly believe that a political economy perspective remains vital for understanding macro-structural power’ (8), yet they reject key aspects of the version I recommended in an earlier issue of this journal [Côté. J. E. 2014a.“Towards a New Political Economy of Youth.”Journal of Youth Studies17 (4): 527–543]. They also present a Bourdieusian framework, asserting that it provides a better understanding of the effects of political and the economic forces on the lives of young people. In this article, I show how their rejection of the political-economy-of-youth perspective is based on their misunderstandings of some of the fundamental concepts of that perspective, as well as their misrepresentations of what I recommend to the youth studies community concerning that perspective. Consequently, although their Bourdieusian framework may be useful in illuminating certain aspects of the problem, their attempt to promote their framework as a better approach to the political economy of youth is based on unfounded claims. I use their errors to illustrate several metatheoretical principles that can help researchers to be less imperialistic in their claims, and I offer an analysis of how this dispute reflects the current fragmented nature of the field of youth studies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The state of the national economy often directs voting. But how do citizens form perceptions of a complex and abstract macroeconomy? This study examines whether exposure to unemployment in citizens' immediate residential surroundings shapes their perceptions of the national economy. Using novel data tapping the official proportion of unemployed people residing within radii between 80 and 2,500 meters of an individual's place of residence, we confront common methodological and theoretical challenges in existing work. Findings show that citizens do rely on cues from their residential microcontexts when forming perceptions of the national economy. Furthermore, we provide evidence that measures of unemployment in more aggregate contexts are not only poor reflections of what individuals are likely to experience in their immediate neighborhood but also seem to capture a different mechanism related to local media exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna's and Jaak Valge's estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923-1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania's GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela's pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia's output for the 1913-1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indian companies have been playing a prominent role in the area of investment in Ethiopia. Currently some 427 Indian companies have investment licenses in Ethiopia in which more than 300 companies have very active operations. The areas involved include: agriculture including floriculture, engineering, plastics, pharmaceuticals and hotels and restaurants. Indian companies have shown a keen interest in investing in Ethiopia, identifying it as a country that is stable with sound macroeconomic policies and good governance. Ethiopia is known for its pleasant weather, kind people and abundant labor, safe place to live and work, strategically located around broader regional in the African continent and the Middle East, relatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union (EU) and Ukraine have cooperated on asylum policy for many years with the aim of introducing EU and international standards in Ukraine. Reforms, however, were developing slowly and have accelerated only after 2010. This timing represents a puzzle because the reforms advanced most significantly in a situation when Ukraine’s orientation toward the EU became more reluctant again while it increased toward the Russian Federation. The latter in turn became increasingly hostile toward EU activities in Ukraine and eager to pull Ukraine toward the Eurasian Customs Union as an alternative integration project. The timing of reforms can be explained by paying more attention to domestic forces. On the one hand, these forces operate with some degree of independence from the country’s geo-strategic orientation, responding to sector-specific costs and benefits, and in particular, sector-specific conditionality. On the other hand, the more autocratic rule under former President Yanukovych ended a period of unproductive political muddle and facilitated the adoption of EU rules. Russian influence did not play a role in this particular policy sector, which was thus de-coupled from the broader macro-level developments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We consider two approaches to the design and analysis of social networks, namely, macro- and microdescriptions. According to the former approach, the structure of relations in a social network is averaged, and agents' behavior is studied 'in the mean.' The latter approach takes into account the structural features of the influence graph of agents and their individual decision-making principles. The first and second approaches are compared using the threshold model of collective behavior with a common relative threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]