1. Overestimation of Mangroves Deterioration From Sea Level Rise in Tropical Deltas.
- Author
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Dai, Zhijun, Long, Chuqi, Mei, Xuefei, Fagherazzi, Sergio, and Xiong, Yuan
- Subjects
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MANGROVE forests , *SEA level , *SEDIMENTATION & deposition , *GLOBAL warming , *REMOTE sensing - Abstract
Mangrove forests are critical coastal ecosystems that provide great socio‐ecological services, which are also highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly to sea level rise (SLR). Here we assess changes in mangrove forests in four distinct river/tide/wave‐dominant large deltas along the Indo‐Pacific coast based on 1,336 remote sensing images by machine learning techniques. We find that mangroves are migrating seaward at a rate of 18% ± 12% m/yr, which can offset landward mangroves loss, 67% of which caused by land use conversion. The fact that mangroves are expanding seaward with accretion rates exceeding SLR suggests that climate change has not yet triggered substantial loss in deltaic mangrove forests. Assuming that present environmental conditions do not change and that sediment and organic deposition in the deltaic topsets match SLR rates, we project that 90% of deltaic mangrove forests may start to retreat after 132–194 years. Early inundation of mangroves will occur in wave‐dominated delta. Plain Language Summary: Mangrove forests provide significant ecological and societal services, and mitigation global warming. However, large‐scale loss in mangroves could be induced by anthropogenic drivers and sea level rise (SLR). Our study based on deltas along the Indo‐Pacific coast, highlight that mangroves are expanding seaward at a rate of 18% ± 12% m/yr, indicating that there is little impacts from SLR and has not been substantial loss in mangrove forests in these deltas so far. Mangrove expansion here can efficiently offset 67% landward mangrove losses indicates that our new model project that 90% of mangrove shorelines will may start retreating within 132–194 years. We conclude that favoring mangroves expansion seaward would enhance coastal protection and reduce the need of landward mangrove restoration. Key Points: Mangroves along typical deltas are expanding seaward of about 18% ± 12% m/yr, indicating that there is little impacts from sea level riseMangrove expansion here can efficiently offset 67% landward mangrove lossesNew model project that 90% of mangrove fringes may start retreating within 132–194 years, and wave‐dominated delta present early inundation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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