Search

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have measurable impacts on marine ecosystems and reliant fisheries and associated communities. However, how MHWs translate to changes in fishing opportunities and the displacement of fishing fleets remains poorly understood. Using fishing vessel tracking data from the automatic identification system (AIS), we developed vessel distribution models for two pelagic fisheries targeting highly migratory species, the U.S. Atlantic longline and Pacific troll fleets, to understand how MHW properties (intensity, size, and duration) influence core fishing grounds and fleet displacement. For both fleets, MHW size had the largest influence on fishing ground area with northern fishing grounds gaining and southern fishing grounds decreasing in area. However, fleet displacement in response to MHWs varied between coasts, as the Atlantic longline fleet displaced farther in southern regions whereas the most northern and southern regions of the Pacific troll fleet shifted farther. Characterizing fishing fleet responses to these anomalous conditions can help identify regional vulnerabilities under future extreme events and aid in supporting climate-readiness and resilience in pelagic fisheries.

Typhoons, fueled by warm sea surface waters, heighten concern as they increasingly interact with frequent Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) in a changing climate. Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022) weakened and re‐intensified as it approached the Korean Strait, interacting with an underlying MHW in the northern East China Sea (nECS). In‐situ observations and reanalysis products revealed a significant increase in latent heat loss from the nECS during the MHW period, contributing to the typhoon re‐intensification. Strong sea surface wind forcing with the typhoon enhanced vertical mixing and upwelling, resulting in a pronounced (0.90°C) sea surface cooling after the typhoon passage, facilitating MHW disappearance with reduced thermal stratification. During MHWs, increased background stratification increases temperature oscillations associated with semidiurnal internal tides. Furthermore, post‐typhoon changes in stratification weakened semidiurnal internal tides due to unfavorable conditions for generation from a nearby source. These findings highlight the importance of continuous time‐series observations to monitor interactions among climatic extremes. Plain Language Summary: Typhoons, powered by warm ocean waters, are causing more concern as they increasingly interact with frequent episodes of extremely warm sea conditions known as Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) in a changing climate. This study focuses on Typhoon Hinnamnor in 2022, which went through a weakening and then strengthened as it moved to the Korean Strait and encountered an MHW in the northern East China Sea (nECS). By using in‐situ data collected in the nECS and additional data analysis, we discovered a significant increase in heat loss from the nECS during the MHW, contributing to the intensification of typhoon. The powerful winds from the typhoon caused enhanced mixing and cooling of the sea surface after it passed, helping to cause the disappearance of the MHW and reduce the layering of temperatures in the ocean. During MHW, strong layering strengthens the temperature oscillation linked with the semidiurnal internal tides in the ocean. After typhoon passage there is a decrease in the layering in the ocean, thus weakening the internal tide. The study emphasizes the importance of continuous observations to understand and monitor these interactions in our changing climate. Key Points: Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022) re‐intensified after interacting with the underlying Marine Heatwave (MHW) in the East China SeaTyphoon wind‐driven mixing caused the disappearance of the underlying MHWStratification change accompanied by MHW, and typhoon reduced the local activities of semidiurnal internal tides [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing ocean warming due to climate change significantly threatens regional marine ecosystems by raising the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events. This study examines patterns and trends of maximum annual sea surface temperature (Tmax) in the Eastern China Seas from 1985 to 2022. The results show a significant warming trend in Tmax, exceeding the global average, with notable differences between southern and northern regions. The northern Tmax warming rate is faster, with occurrence times significantly advancing, while the southern Tmax warming rate is slower, with occurrence times significantly delayed. The southern Tmax and its timing are closely correlated with the annual maximum air temperature and its timing. In the north, Tmax timing is influenced by latent heat flux (QLH); a significant increase in August QLH inhibits the continued rise of SST, causing Tmax to advance. The study also highlights a significant increase in marine heatwaves at Tmax timing, with higher Tmax indicating a higher occurrence probability. By elucidating these Tmax trends and dynamics, our study enhances understanding of regional climate impacts, supporting targeted conservation efforts and adaptive ecosystem management strategies in the Eastern China Seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme weather events that have major impacts on the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide. Due to anthropogenic climate change, the occurrence of MHWs is predicted to increase in future. There is already evidence linking MHWs with reductions in biodiversity and incidence of mass mortality events in coastal ecosystems. However, because MHWs are unpredictable, the quantification of their effects on communities is challenging. Here, we use the Helgoland Roads long‐term time series (German Bight, North Sea), one of the richest marine time series in the world, and implement a modified before‐after control‐impact (BACI) design to evaluate MHW effect on mesozooplankton communities. Mesozooplankton play an essential role in connecting primary producers to higher trophic levels, and any changes in their community structure could have far‐reaching impacts on the entire ecosystem. The responses of mesozooplankton community to MHWs in terms of community structure and densities occurred mainly in spring and autumn. Abundances of seven taxa, including some of the most abundant groups (e.g. copepods), were affected either positively or negatively in response to MHWs. In contrast, we observed no clear evidence of an impact of summer and winter MHWs; instead, the density of the most common taxa remained unchanged. Our results highlight the seasonally dependent impacts of MHWs on mesozooplankton communities and the challenges in evaluating those impacts. Long‐term monitoring is an important contributor to the quantification of effects of MHWs on natural populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are anomalously warm events that profoundly affect climate change and local ecosystem. During the summer of 2012 (June-September), intense MHWs occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) concurrently with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. The MHW metrics (duration, frequency, cumulative intensity and maximum intensity) were characterized by northwestward-slanted patterns from west Australia to the Somalia coast. The analysis confirmed that these MHWs were closely associated with the unseasonable pIOD 2012. The weakening of Western North Pacific Subtropical High and strengthening of Australian High in spring induced an interhemispheric pressure gradient that drove two anticyclonic circulation patterns over the eastern TIO. The first anticyclonic circulation featured cross-equatorial wind anomalies from south of Java to the South China Sea/Philippine Sea, which led to strong upwelling off Sumatra-Java during the subsequent summer. The second anticyclonic circulation excited downwelling Rossby waves that propagated from the southeastern TIO to the western TIO. Thus, downwelling in the western pole and upwelling in the eastern pole led to a strong pIOD event peaking in summer, namely, the unseasonable pIOD 2012. These downwelling Rossby waves deepened the thermocline by more than 60 m and caused anomalous surface warming, thereby contributing to the occurrences of MHWs. With the development and peak of the unseasonable pIOD 2012, anomalous atmospheric circulation transported moisture from the TIO to the subtropical Western North Pacific (WNP), favoring a strong cyclonic anomaly that profoundly affected the summer monsoon rainfall over the subtropical WNP. This study provides some perspectives on the role of pIOD events in summer climate over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's oceans are under threat from the prevalence of heatwaves caused by climate change. Despite this, there is a lack of understanding regarding their impact on seawater oxygen levels - a crucial element in sustaining biological survival. Here, we find that heatwaves can trigger low-oxygen extreme events, thereby amplifying the signal of deoxygenation. By utilizing in situ observations and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we provide a global assessment of the relationship between the two types of extreme events in the surface ocean (0–10 m). Our results show compelling evidence of a remarkable surge in the co-occurrence of marine heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events. Hotspots of these concurrent stressors are identified in the study, indicating that this intensification is more pronounced in high-biomass regions than in those with relatively low biomass. The rise in the compound events is primarily attributable to long-term warming primarily induced by anthropogenic forcing, in tandem with natural internal variability modulating their spatial distribution. Our findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated. The authors show that the global ocean is experiencing a significant rise in simultaneous heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events that pose threats to marine life worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine foundation species underpin some of the world's most diverse ecosystems but they are increasingly threatened by intensification of marine heatwaves (MHWs). Where MHWs exceed critical thermal maxima (CTmax), increased mortality and population declines can occur. CTmax is increasingly used to assess MHW population vulnerability but studies estimating CTmax across species, range edges and thermal histories in a comparable manner remain lacking. We determined the impact of MHWs on subsequent CTmax estimates of matched cool/warm affinity pairs of marine foundation species (kelp, seagrass and bivalves) in the Western English Channel. Following a 4‐week MHW simulation, individuals were subjected to a CTmax trial, where temperatures were raised by 2°C day−1 until physiological end points were reached. We found no positive effect of MHWs on CTmax but clear negative impacts were observed for some groups of foundation species. Increased MHW intensity had a stepwise negative impact on the physiology of both warm (Laminaria ochroleuca) and cool water (L. digitata) kelp species that manifested in significant reductions in CTmax. Surprisingly, this was most marked in the warm water species, which runs opposite to the assumed safety of leading‐edge populations. The physiology of warm (Zostera noltii) and cool (Z. marina) seagrasses was negatively impacted by increasing MHW intensity but no significant decrease in CTmax was observed. Both bivalve species (Mytilus edulis and Magallana gigas) showed marked resistance to exposure to MHWs, which was unexpected given the observed vulnerability of these species to stressful summertime conditions. Our results show pre‐exposure to realistic MHWs can influence CTmax values but generalities are difficult to make across groups or based on assumed thermal safety margins. We show CTmax is a labile trait and exposure to MHWs, can erode the resilience of an individual or population to subsequent thermal challenges. This leaves uncertainty within frameworks built to understand where and when MHWs will be most impactful. Further experimentation across a wider range of species and thermal challenges is needed to better understand the dynamic nature of CTmax and field validation is needed to determine the responses of individuals and populations within complex natural systems. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Levels of dissolved oxygen in open ocean and coastal waters are decreasing (ocean deoxygenation), with poorly understood effects on marine megafauna. All of the more than 1000 species of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays) are obligate water breathers, with a variety of life‐history strategies and oxygen requirements. This review demonstrates that although many elasmobranchs typically avoid hypoxic water, they also appear capable of withstanding mild to moderate hypoxia with changes in activity, ventilatory responses, alterations to circulatory and hematological parameters, and morphological alterations to gill structures. However, such strategies may be insufficient to withstand severe, progressive, or prolonged hypoxia or anoxia where anaerobic metabolic pathways may be used for limited periods. As water temperatures increase with climate warming, ectothermic elasmobranchs will exhibit elevated metabolic rates and are likely to be less able to tolerate the effects of even mild hypoxia associated with deoxygenation. As a result, sustained hypoxic conditions in warmer coastal or surface‐pelagic waters are likely to lead to shifts in elasmobranch distributions. Mass mortalities of elasmobranchs linked directly to deoxygenation have only rarely been observed but are likely underreported. One key concern is how reductions in habitat volume as a result of expanding hypoxia resulting from deoxygenation will influence interactions between elasmobranchs and industrial fisheries. Catch per unit of effort of threatened pelagic sharks by longline fisheries, for instance, has been shown to be higher above oxygen minimum zones compared to adjacent, normoxic regions, and attributed to vertical habitat compression of sharks overlapping with increased fishing effort. How a compound stressor such as marine heatwaves alters vulnerability to deoxygenation remains an open question. With over a third of elasmobranch species listed as endangered, a priority for conservation and management now lies in understanding and mitigating ocean deoxygenation effects in addition to population declines already occurring from overfishing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2014–2015 warm anomaly (aka "the Blob"), the largest of periodic and intensifying marine heat wave (MHW) perturbations in the northeast Pacific, may provide some insight about the future warmer ocean. Here, we use mixed‐layer carbon estimates for total phytoplankton, major size classes and functional groups from 45 CalCOFI cruises to: (1) compare 2014–2015 MHW impacts in the southern California Current System to baseline estimates from 2004 to 2013 and (2) to test a space‐for‐time exchange hypothesis that links biomass structure to variability of nitracline depth (NCD). Seasonal and inshore‐offshore analyses from nine stations revealed almost uniform 2°C MHW warming extending 700 km seaward, fourfold to sixfold declines in nitrate concentration and 18‐m deeper NCDs. Phytoplankton C decreased 16–21% compared to 45–65% for Chl a, with the threefold difference due to altered C : Chl a. Among size classes, percent composition of nanoplankton decreased and picophytoplankton increased, driven by higher Prochlorococcus biomass, while Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes generally declined. Diatom and dinoflagellate C decreased in both onshore and offshore waters. Seasonally, the MHW delayed the normal winter refresh of surface nitrate, resulting in depressed stocks of total phytoplankton and nanoplankton, Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes during winter. Consistent with the space‐for‐time hypothesis, biomass variations for baseline and MHW cruises followed similar (not significantly different) slope relationships to NCD. All biomass components, except Prochlorococcus, were negatively related to NCD, and community biomass structure realigned according to regression slopes differences with NCD variability. Empirically derived biomass‐NCD relationships could be useful for calibrating models that explore future food‐web impacts in this coastal upwelling system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine water temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change, constituting a major threat to marine ecosystems. Diatoms are major marine primary producers, and as such, they are subjected to marine heat waves and rising ocean temperatures. Additionally, under low tide, diatoms are regularly exposed to high temperatures. However, physiological and epigenetic responses to long-term exposure to heat stress remain largely unknown in the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum. In this study, we investigated changes in cell morphology, photosynthesis, and H3K27me3 abundance (an epigenetic mark consisting of the tri-methylation of lysine 27 on histone H3) after moderate and elevated heat stresses. Mutants impaired in PtEZH—the enzyme depositing H3K27me3—presented reduced growth and moderate changes in their PSII quantum capacities. We observed shape changes for the three morphotypes of P. tricornutum (fusiform, oval, and triradiate) in response to heat stress. These changes were found to be under the control of PtEZH. Additionally, both moderate and elevated heat stresses modulated the expression of genes encoding proteins involved in photosynthesis. Finally, heat stress elicited a reduction of genome-wide H3K27me3 levels in the various morphotypes. Hence, we provided direct evidence of epigenetic control of the H3K27me3 mark in the responses of Phaeodactylum tricornutum to heat stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate‐driven alterations to disturbance regimes are increasingly disrupting patterns of recovery in many biomes. Here, we examine the impact of disturbance and subsequent level of recovery in live hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) across the last three decades. We demonstrate that a preexisting pattern of infrequent disturbances of limited spatial extent has changed to larger and more frequent disturbances, dominated by marine heatwaves and severe tropical cyclones. We detected an increase in the impact (measured as coral loss) across 265 individual disturbance impacts on 131 reefs in a 36‐year dataset (1985–2022). Additionally, the number of survey reefs impacted by disturbance has increased each decade from 6% in the 1980s to 44% in the 2010s, as has the frequency of mass coral bleaching across the GBR, which has increased between 19% and 28% per year, and cyclones (3%–5% per year), resulting in less time for recovery. Of the 265 disturbance impacts we recorded, complete recovery to the highest levels of coral cover recorded earlier in this study (the "historical benchmark") occurred only 62 (23%) times. Of the 23% of disturbance impacts that resulted in complete recovery to historical benchmarks, 34/62 recovered to their benchmark in 2021 or 2022. Complete recovery was more likely when the historical benchmark was <25% live hard coral cover. The lack of recovery was attributed to recovery time windows becoming shorter due to increases in the frequency of cyclones and of thermal stress events that result in mass coral bleaching episodes. These results confirm that climate change is contributing to ecosystem‐wide changes in the ability of coral reefs to recover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High mortality rates of cultured Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) during the summer months have regularly occurred on oyster farms in British Columbia, Canada over the last 10 years, but little is known about the microbial and environmental conditions that contribute to such mortality events. The objective of the study was to determine correlative factors associated with the onset of a summer mortality event in oysters (mean ± SD shell height: 14.2 ± 0.5 mm) grown in suspended culture at four stocking densities (150, 300, 450, 600 oysters tray−1) from May 11 to September 17, 2018. Variables examined included both biotic (oyster growth, mortality, reproductive development, and microbiome (approximately every week); Vibrio and harmful algal species abundance) and abiotic (temperature, salinity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, pCO2, pH, and aragonite saturation) ones. Both the absolute abundance of V. aestuarianus and the relative abundance of Vibrio spp. increased with observed oyster mortality and declining health. Mortality was highest on August 12 and associated with a prior period of elevated temperatures (i.e., increasing temperatures from early July to early August) and increased oyster growth/reproductive development. At that time, systemic mixed microbial infections and necrotic gill tissue in histological cross sections were observed in 19% of oysters that appeared healthy macroscopically. Cumulative percent mortalities per tray ranged from 34 to 75%, the highest-density trays having significantly less mortality and smaller shell width, shell length, and gonad length than lower-density trays. This study demonstrates the significant impact of summer mortality on Pacific oysters and highlights the biotic (host growth, reproductive development, and microbiome composition as well as Vibrio spp. abundance) and abiotic (water temperature) factors associated with the observed mortality in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific (NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window (less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP. Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Predicting spatial and temporal changes in species distributions is difficult for highly mobile species, making effective management challenging. We aim to understand the seasonal variability in habitat suitability for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus; ABFT) by using tracking data to create species distribution models. Location: North‐east Atlantic Ocean. Methods: Forty‐nine ABFT were tagged with pop‐up archival satellite tags along the west coast of Ireland during successive autumns from 2016 to 2021. Four thousand two hundred and sixteen daily locations were used to build a habitat model to describe ABFT environmental preferences and habitat suitability. For each location, 100 'pseudoabsence' locations were simulated using correlated random walks. Results: Tags had a mean retention rate of 237 ± 107 days, resulting in 11,602 cumulative days at liberty, and a mean daily distance travelled of 51 ± 143 km. ABFT showed two primary migration routes from Ireland, travelling to the Bay of Biscay or across the Mid‐Atlantic ridge in the winter. However, in 2019 six individuals travelled northwards towards Iceland, likely in response to a marine heatwave. Eight ABFT entered the Mediterranean in May/June for putative spawning, with six returning to Irish waters a year later. Five environmental covariates best described ABFT habitat, with habitat suitability highest at sea surface temperatures (SST) of 15–18°C, a mixed layer depth between ~200 and 300 m, high relief bathymetric features (i.e. shelf breaks and seamounts) and frontal regions as revealed by non‐linear preferences of eddy kinetic energy and SST standard deviation. Main Conclusions: In the last decade, ABFT have been re‐establishing historic foraging grounds in higher latitudes, for example, Irish and Nordic waters. Our model shows the extent of suitable habitat in these regions and how recent ocean warming may have contributed to northern expansions. Understanding the drivers behind these reappearances is fundamental to successful future management. Achoimre: Aidhm: Tá sé deacair athraithe i ndáileadh ama agus spásdháileadh speiceas atá an‐soghluaiste a thuar, rud a chiallaíonn go bhfuil sé dúshlánach bainistiú éifeachtach a dhéanamh. Tá muid ag iarraidh inathraitheacht shéasúrach in oiriúnacht ghnáthóg an Tuinnín Gorm Atlantach (Thunnus thynnus; TGA) a thuiscint tríd sonraí rianaithe a úsáid chun samhail dháileadh speiceas a chruthú. Suíomh: Oirthuaisceart an Atlantaigh. Modh: Rinneadh clibeadh ar 49 TGA le clibeanna cartlainne a thagann go barr uisce ar chósta iarthar na hÉireann le linn ceithre fhómhair i ndiaidh a chéile ó 2016–2021. Úsáideadh 4216 suíomhanna laethúil chun samhail ghnáthóg a chruthú a rinne cur síos ar roghanna timpeallachta agus oiriúnacht ghnáthóg an TGA. I gcomhair gach suíomh, ionsamhlaíodh 100 suíomhanna bréag‐neamhláithreacht ag úsáid siúlóidí randamacha comhghaolaithe. Torthaí: Bhí meán ráta coinneála de 237 ± 107 lá ag na clibeanna, rud a thug 11,602 lá taifeadta i ndiaidh a chéile agus meán fhad laethúil taistealta de 51 ± 143 km dá bharr. Léirigh TGA dhá phríomhbhealaí imirce ó hÉirinn, ag taisteal go Bá na Bioscáine nó thar Droim an Atlantaigh Láir i rith an gheimhridh. Ach i 2019 thaisteal sé iasc ó thuaidh i dtreo an Íoslainn, is dócha mar gheall ar thonn teasa mara. Chuaigh ocht TGA isteach sa Mheánmhuir i rith mí Bealtaine/mí an Mheitheamh chun uibheacha a sceitheadh de réir dealraimh. Tháinig sé dóibh ar ais go huiscí na hÉireann an bhliain dar gcionn. Déanann cúig athróg timpeallachta an cur síos is fearr ar ghnáthóg an TGA, tá oiriúnacht ghnáthóg is airde ag teocht barr uisce (TBA) de 15–18°C, nuair atá doimhneacht an chisil mheasctha idir ~200 agus 300 m, ag gnéithe bataiméadrach ard‐rilíf (i.e. scoilteanna scairbhe agus tuláin grinnill), agus ag réigiúin frontacha léirithe ag roghanna neamh‐líneacha fuinneamh cinéatach guairneánach agus diall caighdeánach TBA. Príomhchonclúidí: Le leathscór bliain anuas tá TGA tar éis réigiúin sealgaireachta stairiúil a athbhunú in áiteanna le hard‐domhanleithead, ar nós uiscí na hÉireann agus uiscí Nordacha. Taispeánann ár samhail achar an ghnáthóg oiriúnach sna réigiúin seo agus an bhaint féideartha a bhí ag téámh aigéanach le gairid ar leathadh ó thuaidh. Tá sé buntábhachtach na cúiseanna don athfhilleadh seo a thuiscint i gcomhair bainistiú rathúil amach anseo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryonotothenioids constitute a subgroup of notothenioid fishes endemic to the Southern Ocean that are specialized to exist in a narrow range of near-freezing temperatures. Due to the challenges of reliably collecting and maintaining larval cryonotothenioids in good condition, most thermal tolerance studies have been limited to adult and juvenile stages. With increasing environmental pressures from climate change in Antarctic ecosystems, it is important to better understand the impacts of a warming environment on larval stages as well. In this study, we determine the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) of cryonotothenioid larvae collected in pelagic net tows during three research cruises near the western Antarctic Peninsula. We sampled larvae of seven species representing three cryonotothenioid families—Nototheniidae, Channichthyidae, and Artedidraconidae. For channichthyid and nototheniid species, CTmax values ranged from 8.6 to 14.9 °C and were positively correlated with body length, suggesting that younger, less motile larvae may be especially susceptible to rapid warming events such as marine heatwaves. To our knowledge, this is the first published test of acute thermal tolerance for any artedidraconid, with CTmax ranging from 13.2 to 17.8 °C, which did not correlate with body length. Of the two artedidraconid species we collected, Neodraco skottsbergi showed remarkable tolerance to warming and was the only species to resume normal swimming following trials. We offer two hypotheses as to why N. skottsbergi has such an elevated thermal tolerance: (1) their unique green coloration serves as camouflage within near-surface phytoplankton blooms, suggesting they occupy an especially warm near-surface niche, and (2) recent insights into their evolutionary history suggest that they are derived from taxa that may have occupied warm tide-pool habitats. Collectively, these results establish N. skottsbergi and larval channichthyids as groups of interest for future physiological studies to gain further insights into the vulnerability of cryonotothenioids to a warming ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs in the Florida Reef Tract have seen protracted loss of coral over the past several decades due to a variety of disturbances from marine heat waves, cold snaps, and disease events. Corals have not recovered despite abundant herbivorous fishes and relatively low macroalgal cover, two factors thought to facilitate resilience of corals. Thus, factors affecting the replenishment of coral populations may be hindering the recovery of corals. To study the potential factors affecting coral recovery in reefs of the Florida Reef Tract, we assessed benthic abiotic variables (substrate slope, depth, structural complexity, and abundance of sediment), fish assemblages, and benthic composition in three different reef habitats (groove, spur wall, spur top) located on three low-relief reefs and three high-relief spur-and-groove reefs. Herbivorous fish biomass ranged (44.7–107 g m−2), which is above average for the Caribbean. Yet there was low coral cover (~ 1%) and low density (~ 1 coral m2) of small adult corals, which likely reflects the cumulative effects of years of disturbances. The presence and density of juvenile corals were negatively correlated with the depth of the sediment layer trapped within long, sediment-laden algal turfs (LSAT), which are particularly abundant (> 50% cover) in low complexity reef habitats (low-relief groove, low-relief spur top, and high-relief groove). Our results indicate that current unsuitable habitat conditions (high sediment load) for early life stage corals may be an important factor preventing coral recovery. Consequently, the abundance of herbivorous fishes and coral cover trajectories appear decoupled in the region, and additional management initiatives considering LSAT composition are required to aid reef resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is transforming coral reefs by increasing the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves, often leading to coral bleaching and mortality. Coral communities have demonstrated modest increases in thermal tolerance following repeated exposure to moderate heat stress, but it is unclear whether these shifts represent acclimatization of individual colonies or mortality of thermally susceptible individuals. For corals that survive repeated bleaching events, it is important to understand how past bleaching responses impact future growth potential. Here, we track the bleaching responses of 1,832 corals in leeward Maui through multiple marine heatwaves and document patterns of coral growth and survivorship over a seven-year period. While we find limited evidence of acclimatization at population scales, we document reduced bleaching over time in specific individuals that is indicative of acclimatization, primarily in the stress-tolerant taxa Porites lobata. For corals that survived both bleaching events, we find no relationship between bleaching response and coral growth in three of four taxa studied. This decoupling suggests that coral survivorship is a better indicator of future growth than is a coral's bleaching history. Based on these results, we recommend restoration practitioners in Hawaiʻi focus on colonies of Porites and Montipora with a proven track-record of growth and survivorship, rather than devote resources toward identifying and cultivating bleaching-resistant phenotypes in the lab. Survivorship followed a latitudinal thermal stress gradient, but because this gradient was small, it is likely that local environmental factors also drove differences in coral performance between sites. Efforts to reduce human impacts at low performing sites would likely improve coral survivorship in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (DOISST) and other similar sea surface temperature (SST) products indicate that the globally averaged SST set a new daily record in March 2023. The record‐high SST in March was immediately broken in April, and new daily records were set again in July and August 2023. The SST anomaly (SSTA) persisted at a record high from mid‐March to the remainder of 2023. Our analysis indicates that the record‐high SSTs, and associated marine heatwaves (MHWs) and even super‐MHWs, are attributed to three factors: (a) a long‐term warming trend, (b) a shift to the warm phase of the multi‐decadal Pacific‐Atlantic‐Arctic (PAA) mode, and (c) the transition from the triple‐dip succession of La Niña events to the 2023–24 El Niño event. Plain Language Summary: Observation‐based analyses such as the NOAA DOISST show that global mean SST reached a record high in April 2023, breaking the previous record of global mean SST set in March 2016, and the April 2023 record of global mean SST was broken again in July and August 2023. Our study indicates that these record‐breaking SSTs in 2023 resulted from record‐high SSTs over much of the global oceans and associated with widespread marine heatwaves (MHWs). Further analyses show that the record‐high SSTs are attributed to a long‐term‐warming trend associated with increasing greenhouse gases, a shift to the warm phase of a multidecadal Pacific‐Atlantic‐Arctic (PAA) mode, and a warming associated with the transition from 2020–23 La Niña events to the 2023–24 El Niño event. Key Points: Global mean sea surface temperature (SST) in 2023 set a record highRecord‐high SST was associated with widespread marine heatwaves (MHWs) and super‐MHWs throughout the oceansRecord‐high SST was attributed to the multi‐decadal warming trend, warm phase of Pacific‐Atlantic‐Arctic mode, and 2023–24 El Niño event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cooling effect of the ocean on the Southern California coastal zone is investigated using a high‐resolution (4‐km) gridded surface meteorological data set (gridMET) of daily maximum temperature (Tmax), with focus on summer mean conditions, taken as the July–August–September (JAS) average. An empirical orthogonal function analysis reveals a coastal mode of JAS temperature covariability, distinct from a more energetic inland mode, that captures Tmax averaged across the Southern California coastal plain. The coastal mode temperature correlates significantly with, and has similar amplitude to, regional sea surface temperature (SST). High (low) summer land and sea surface temperatures, as well as inversion layer temperature differences, are associated with decreases (increases) of northerly coastal wind speeds and coastal cloudiness. The number of extreme heat days on land increases as regional SST increases (4.3 days °C−1), with heat wave days 10 times more likely during peak warm versus cool coastal mode years. The coastal zone was notably warmer and heat wave days peaked during the well documented marine heat wave events of 2014/15 and 2018 off Southern California. The marine variability associated with the coastal mode also has strong expression off the Baja California peninsula, presumably due to strong covarying winds in that area. As in previous studies, higher ocean temperatures are attributed to weaker summer winds, with associated reductions in ocean surface heat loss, coastal upwelling, and cloudiness. Plain Language Summary: Summer land temperatures across the Southern California coastal plain are moderated by proximity to the ocean, yet connections between year‐to‐year changes in summer land and ocean temperatures have not been fully quantified. Averages of July–September temperatures across the coastal plain are well described by a single mode of variability, which contributes to the number of extreme heat days in a given summer. Anomalously warm coastal land conditions are associated with reduced wind speeds and cloud/fog coverage and, most notably, warmer sea surface temperatures over the Southern California Bight and extending southward along the Baja California peninsula. Weak summer winds bring a reduction in ocean surface heat loss, coastal upwelling, and cloudiness, which contribute to higher sea surface temperatures. Strong winds lead to the opposite effect. This study highlights the multiple connections between marine and land heat waves in the SoCal region. Key Points: Summer‐averaged daily maximum land temperatures exhibit coherent spatial variations across the Southern California coastal plainCoastal land temperatures covary with regional ocean temperatures at a similar amplitude, as well as with surface winds and cloud coverThe number of extreme temperature days in the coastal zone varies with ocean conditions, notably during recent marine heat waves [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change intensifies heatwaves, quantifying associated mortality within ectothermic populations is crucial for effective conservation. Thermal tolerance landscape (TTL) models are useful predictive tools that assume exponentially decreasing survival durations in individuals with increasing temperatures. This assumption has been validated through regression analyses on data from constant temperature experiments, primarily focusing on adult‐stage individuals. However, this approach does not allow for direct model validation with data from dynamic, real‐world heatwave events and overlooks early recruitment stage vulnerabilities. This study aimed to address these gaps using the blue mussel Mytilus, a foundation species forming extensive reefs along temperate coasts, as a model organism. We monitored survival rates of mussels (juveniles and adults) under constant heatwave (CHW) conditions in a laboratory experiment and under dynamic heatwave (DHW) scenarios simulated in an outdoor mesocosm experiment. Post‐heatwaves, we also assessed recruitment rates within the mesocosms. TTL models were parametrised by employing Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC‐SMC) on each dataset separately. The parameter distributions were similar across both experiments, and the ABC‐SMC model predictions closely matched the observed survival declines, validating these models. In comparison, we found a lower predictive performance when using a Bayesian regression approach. Additionally, our best‐fit model predicted that warming across the non‐fatal DHW regimes would increase sublethal effects on mussels. The observed impact on the recruitment stage was more pronounced, with the recruitment rate following an exponential decay as sublethal effects increased. Our model projected minor (<4%) sublethal effects in adult mussels during the century's five warmest summer temperature regimes, corresponding to 0%–32% declines in recruitment rates. Our research extends the TTL model validation, demonstrates the resilience of subtidal Baltic Mytilus to future extreme heatwaves and offers an approach to predict heatwave‐induced population mortalities, applicable to other species and sensitive systems. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Possible local influence of an extreme marine heatwave is investigated on unprecedentedly hot summer around northern Japan in 2023. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and subsurface ocean temperatures around northern Japan were also unprecedentedly high in the summer. This was especially the case off the east coast of Japan, where cool Oyashio water was replaced with much warmer water due to a striking poleward meander of the Kuroshio Extension persistent from the spring. Particularly amplified near-surface air temperature anomalies and even stronger warm anomalies in the subsurface ocean suggest that the marine heatwave acted to sustain the atmospheric heatwave. Anomalous upward of latent and sensible heat fluxes from the warmed sea surface are indicative of local oceanic impact. The warm SST anomalies reduced the lower-tropospheric stratification to maintain unfavourable condition for low-level cloud formation, which in turn led to increased surface insolation for further SST warming as positive feedback. The increased moisture in the warmed lower troposphere contributed to the enhanced surface downward longwave radiation. This enhanced greenhouse effect acted not only as positive feedback on the warm SST anomalies that increased evaporation but also as a contributor for the extreme warmth over northern Japan landmass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An area of ocean centered on 179°E, 46°S has warmed to full depth since 2006, with surface warming around 5 times the global rate. This Subtropical Front area is associated with a confluence of warm, salty, subtropical water from the north carried in a western boundary current and cold, fresh, subantarctic water from the south carried in the northernmost branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Temperature and salinity changes observed from Argo floats indicate that the Subtropical Frontal Zone has moved west ∼120 km, creating this area of strong warming analogous to changes in extension regions of other western boundary currents. The warming is a result of changes in the local flows of subantarctic water, evident in satellite altimeter data and 1,000 m Argo trajectories, which in turn likely result from changes in meridional ocean heat content and winds. The warming has placed this biologically‐significant region in almost perpetual marine heatwave conditions. Plain Language Summary: An area of ocean east of New Zealand has warmed strongly since 2006 through the full ocean depth. The warming has been driven by a change in Southern Ocean currents, which, in turn appear to result from changes in the ocean heat content gradient between mid and high latitudes and changes in wind. The change is occurring in a biologically highly‐productive area of importance to Orange Roughy and Hoki fisheries. Key Points: There has been strong, full‐depth ocean warming since 2006 in a region south of Chatham Islands, New ZealandSouth of Chatham Islands, the Subtropical Frontal Zone has moved 120 km westThe warming is a result of diminished Subantarctic Water flows along northern Campbell Plateau and around Bounty Trough [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under anthropogenic warming, future changes to climate variability beyond specific modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have not been well-characterized. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) climate model, the future change to sea surface temperature (SST) variability (and correspondingly marine heatwave intensity) on monthly timescales and longer is spatially heterogeneous. We examined these projected changes (between 1960–2000 and 2060–2100) in the North Pacific using a local linear stochastic-deterministic model, which allowed us to quantify the effect of changes to three drivers on SST variability: ocean "memory" (the SST damping timescale), ENSO teleconnections, and stochastic noise forcing. The ocean memory declines in most areas, but lengthens in the central North Pacific. This change is primarily due to changes in air-sea feedbacks and ocean damping, with the shallowing mixed layer depth playing a secondary role. An eastward shift of the ENSO teleconnection pattern is primarily responsible for the pattern of SST variance change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming is driving significant changes in the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, shifting species' biogeography and phenology, changing body size and biomass and altering the trophodynamics of the system. Particularly, extreme temperature events such as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been increasing in intensity, duration and frequency. MHWs are causing large‐scale impacts on marine ecosystems, such as coral bleaching, mass mortality of seagrass meadows and declines in fish stocks and other marine organisms in recent decades. In this study, we developed and applied a dynamic version of the EcoTroph trophodynamic modelling approach to study the cascading effects of individual MHW on marine ecosystem functioning. We simulated theoretical user‐controlled ecosystems and explored the consequences of various assumptions of marine species mortality along the food web, associated with different MHW intensities. We show that an MHW can lead to a significant biomass reduction of all consumers, with the severity of the declines being dependent on species trophic levels (TLs) and biomes, in addition to the characteristics of MHWs. Biomass of higher TLs declines more than lower TLs under an MHW, leading to changes in ecosystem structure. While tropical ecosystems are projected to be sensitive to low‐intensity MHWs, polar and temperate ecosystems are expected to be impacted by more intense MHWs. The estimated time to recover from MHW impacts is twice as long for polar ecosystems and one‐third longer for temperate biomes compared with tropical biomes. This study highlights the importance of considering extreme weather events in assessing the effects of climate change on the structures and functions of marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climatic variation re‐shapes global biodiversity, understanding eco‐evolutionary feedbacks during species range shifts is of increasing importance. Theory on range expansions distinguishes between two different forms: "pulled" and "pushed" waves. Pulled waves occur when the source of the expansion comes from low‐density peripheral populations, while pushed waves occur when recruitment to the expanding edge is supplied by high‐density populations closer to the species' core. How extreme events shape pushed/pulled wave expansion events, as well as trailing‐edge declines/contractions, remains largely unexplored. We examined eco‐evolutionary responses of a marine invertebrate (the owl limpet, Lottia gigantea) that increased in abundance during the 2014–2016 marine heatwaves near the poleward edge of its geographic range in the northeastern Pacific. We used whole‐genome sequencing from 19 populations across >11 degrees of latitude to characterize genomic variation, gene flow, and demographic histories across the species' range. We estimated present‐day dispersal potential and past climatic stability to identify how contemporary and historical seascape features shape genomic characteristics. Consistent with expectations of a pushed wave, we found little genomic differentiation between core and leading‐edge populations, and higher genomic diversity at range edges. A large and well‐mixed population in the northern edge of the species' range is likely a result of ocean current anomalies increasing larval settlement and high‐dispersal potential across biogeographic boundaries. Trailing‐edge populations have higher differentiation from core populations, possibly driven by local selection and limited gene flow, as well as high genomic diversity likely as a result of climatic stability during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our findings suggest that extreme events can drive poleward range expansions that carry the adaptive potential of core populations, while also cautioning that trailing‐edge extirpations may threaten unique evolutionary variation. This work highlights the importance of understanding how both trailing and leading edges respond to global change and extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean events with prolonged discrete periods of anomalously warm water, that have significant impacts on fisheries, tourism, and marine ecosystems. We identify MHWs as discrete periods (≥ 5 days) when the sea surface temperature exceeds the threshold (90th percentile) of the sea surface temperature distribution for specific calendar days and analyze their main properties in the Baltic Sea for the period 1993−2022. Also, we investigate the main mechanisms of evolution one of the most intense and continuous MHW, observed from October 2000 to March 2001. We use temperature, salinity, mixed layer depth, and current velocity daily data from regional reanalysis of the Baltic Sea (2 nautical mile horizontal resolution, vertical step from 1 m on the surface to 24 m on the bottom). We also use monthly data from global climate reanalysis ECMWF ERA5 (0.25° × 0.25°) and meteorological stations of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. From 40 to 90 MHWs with an average duration and intensity (8−24 days and 1.75−3.25 °C) were detected in various parts of the Baltic Sea during the period 1993−2022. The maximum cumulative values (> 2400 °C days) were observed in the Gotland Basins, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga. The mean intensity and cumulative values of MHWs are stronger in summer (3.6 °C and 740 °C days). A long existence of MHW in the autumn–winter period 2000–2001 was associated with positive air temperature anomalies (> 4 °C) and a sharp weakening of wind speed in the Baltic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the global intensification of marine heatwaves has impacted several ecosystems and species, including the endemic Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica. However, the scarcity of research in Eastern Mediterranean meadows, where historical and present thermal conditions differ from those of the Western Mediterranean, hampers our ability to draw comprehensive conclusions regarding the species' response to elevated sea temperatures. Here, we studied flowering patterns of P. oceanica meadows (3–15 m depth) of the Greek seas and assessed their potential association with marine heatwaves, while also examining the effects on plant growth associated with the transition from vegetative to sexual reproduction. To do so, we reconstructed flowering patterns from 2007 to 2021 across 58 meadows using lepidochronology and estimated summer marine heatwave metrics and categories using satellite sea surface temperature. The results revealed that flowering, while sporadic in most meadows (mean flowering frequency: 0.15), it was triggered by strong (Category II) summer marine heatwaves and a cumulative intensity exceeding 30°C days. Nevertheless, flowering density was low (mean flowering density: 11 inflorescences m−2) and not fuelled by frequency, intensity, or duration of marine heatwaves. Despite the potential long‐term benefits of sexual reproduction, annual rhizome production of flowering shoots decreased 1.5‐fold for at least 2 yr postflowering. This study uncovers the susceptibility of Eastern Mediterranean P. oceanica meadows, akin to their western counterparts, to marine heatwaves induced stress and its effects on reproductive strategies, raising concerns about the prospective plant growth and reproductive fitness to the escalating trend in marine heatwaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, climate change has led to ocean warming, causing more frequent extreme events such as marine heatwaves (MHWs), which have been understudied in the Caribbean Sea. This study addresses this gap using 30 years of daily sea surface temperature (SST) data, complemented by projections for the 21st century from nineteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. In the 1983–2012 period, significant trends were observed in the spatially averaged MHWs frequency (1.32 annual events per decade and node) and mean duration (1.47 ± 0.29 days per decade) but not in mean intensity. In addition, MHWs show large monthly variations in these metrics, modulated by interannual and seasonal changes. MHWs seasonality is different in the three used metrics, being more intense and frequent in warm and rainy months (intensity between 1.01 to 1.11 °C, duration 6.79 to 7.13 days) and longer lasting in late boreal winter (intensity between 0.82 to 1.00 °C, duration 7.50 to 8.31 days). The MHWs behavior from two extreme months show that these events can occur in both small and large areas in the Caribbean. Overall, models tend to underestimate the annually averaged MHWs frequency and intensity, while they overestimate duration when compared to observations. MHWs projections are more extreme under SSP585, as they are sensible to the radiational scenario. However, an increase in MHWs intensity and duration (events lasting as much as 154 days by 2100) is expected, driving a decrease in frequency (–37.39 events per decade under SSP585 by 2100). These projections imply that MHWs conditions at the beginning of the century will be nearly permanent in the Caribbean's future. Nonetheless, caution is advised in interpreting these projections due to differences between models' simulations and observed data. While advancements in oceanic models within CMIP6 demonstrate progress compared to previous CMIP initiatives, challenges persist in accurately simulating extreme events such as marine heatwaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species interactions are influenced by changes to the environment, such as seasonal variations in temperature, and human‐driven warming including marine heatwaves (MHWs). Alteration of species interactions, particularly those involving foundation species, can shape ecosystem structure, stability and dynamics. Marine habitats, notably seagrass meadows, are threatened by human‐driven environmental changes including MHWs which have the potential to alter trophic interactions through effects on various community members including seagrasses, epiphytic algae, and epiphytic algae grazers. Here we examined the effects of a simulated marine heatwave (control versus + 4°C) in different seasons and grazer occurrence on seagrass traits, epiphytic algae growth, grazer biomass and grazing rate. We found the season in which the MHW occurred affected the seagrass response and grazer influence. In winter, the MHW had positive effects on seagrass growth and nitrogen content and caused significant decreases in epiphytic algae growth. However, in summer, grazer presence increased seagrass growth and biomass, but growth was reduced by the interaction with the MHW. The season in which the MHW occurred affected the magnitude of change in leaf tissue isotopic values and C:N ratio, with greater changes occurring in summer. Epiphytic algal growth was markedly reduced by the interaction between all three factors, leading to the near lack of epiphyte growth in summer with grazers present under the MHW. Summer was also associated with a greater increase in snail biomass (most notably under MHW conditions), and increased snail grazing rate. From these results, we show that winter MHWs can drive increased growth of seagrasses but minimal impacts on grazers, while in summer increased grazer activity can interact with elevated temperatures from a MHW to increase their algal consumption. By examining responses across multiple trophic levels and distinct seasons, we achieve a more representative and realistic depiction of human‐induced environmental impacts on ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes to Earth's climate affect organisms globally; in marine systems, these impacts are seen through warming water temperatures, ocean acidification, hypoxia and frequent marine heatwaves. These effects may lead to the movement of species to more favourable conditions. While climate‐driven movement is well studied at the adult stage, how the early life stages of marine fish will respond to future variability is less clear. Many fish species are constrained by specific spawning locations or phenology. Spawning in certain locations allows for local retention of offspring, while precise timing can facilitate transport of offspring to nursery locations through seasonal circulation patterns. Our research investigates how changing oceans impact the location and timing of spawning of Bering Sea groundfishes over the next century. We used ROMS SST and SSS model output and NOAA survey data in species distribution models to hindcast and project distributions and centre of gravity for eggs and larvae of six groundfish species. Our analyses found that most of our study species exhibit flexible geography. However, the speed and direction of egg and larval movement did not track the speed and direction of their respective thermal niches. Hence, the projected distributional patterns of adult stages may be limited by their early life stages. This response is likely to be mirrored globally by other species with planktonic eggs and larvae. These results indicate that life history considerations are critical for the management of commercially important species, as effects on early life stages are strongly connected to the success or failure of adult populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated impacts. However, these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future projections. Addressing these challenges requires addressing internal variability, hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations, and thwarting conventional supervised learning methods. Here, we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network (CycleGAN), to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode, as well as SST extremes. Notably, it substantially corrects climatological SST biases, decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) by 58%. Intriguingly, the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies, a common issue in climate models that traditional methods, like quantile mapping, struggle to rectify. Additionally, it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes, raising the pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to 0.32. This enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic scales variabilities. Our study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disentangling community responses to multiple stressors in a warming context is one of the most challenging tasks ecologists face. Taking advantage of a long‐term (1989–2017) and intensive fish monitoring survey (N = ~900K from 804 seines‐day), we present a comprehensive analysis on the dynamics of coastal fish communities in Jamaica Bay, New York, by addressing multiple dimensions of community change that although closely related are rarely considered in a single work. Specifically, we tested hypotheses about changes in composition, composition variability and community functional attributes, and the role of environmental drivers acting at different temporal scales. Our analyses suggest two decoupled community dynamics triggered by two different extreme events. First, the 1999 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase switch caused an abrupt shift from a single‐species dominance to intermittent co‐dominance, with species preferring higher temperatures, a shift that has persisted in time but that may be cyclical at a multidecadal scale. Second, the 2012 heat wave promoted an abrupt collapse of rare and cold‐water species, and the sudden arrival of warmer‐water species in a portion of the community that was already increasingly variable due to long‐term warming. Functionally, the entire community subtly shifted toward species with faster turnover and lower trophic levels. Our work sheds light on the complex responses of biological communities to warming in terms of the impacts on composition, its temporal variability, and its functional dimension, by disentangling the interplay of long‐term environmental trends such as warming, multidecadal cycles, and extreme events on different portions (i.e., dominant and rare thermal species) of the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are known to pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems and coastal communities and, as a result, they receive significant attention nowadays, thus motivating our scientific interest in better understanding the regional patterns of these events. In this study, we analyze MHWs in the SE part of the Baltic Sea, defining them as anomalously warm water events, where the water temperature exceeds the 90th percentile threshold of the corresponding calendar day for at least five or more consecutive days. Our study is based on a combination of long-term (1993–2023) in situ data, field measurements, and satellite-derived sea surface temperature data during the warm (May–August) period. Study results suggest that although short-lived (5–9 days) MHW events typically dominate throughout the analyzed period, the occurrences of longer (more than three weeks) and more intense MHWs have increased in our study region in the recent decade. The heatwaves are observed both in coastal and open waters, with SST anomalies up to around 5–6 °C above the 90th percentile threshold during extreme events, extending thermal influence as deep as 20 m during prolonged and more intense events. We believe that the results of this study contribute to a better understanding of MHW patterns in the study region, which is important from an ecological and socio-economic point of view, providing valuable insights for human health aspects as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marginal seas of the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO), including the South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas, are hotspots of large‐scale marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer with notable impacts on local ecosystems. Yet, the prediction of these MHWs remains challenging. By analyzing 39 MHWs and 45 marine cold‐spells (MCSs) observed in the summers of 1982–2021, this study reveals a robust modulation effect of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on these events. The results show that 56% of MHWs and 51% of MCSs overlapped with MJO events, and their duration is systematically longer than others. Moreover, MHWs in phases 3–4 and MCSs in phases 6–7 of the real‐time multivariate MJO (RMM) index were nearly 2–3 times stronger in intensity than the others. The passage of MJOs drives prominent intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through perturbing surface heat fluxes, which in turn modulates the occurrence of MHWs and MCSs. During RMM phases 1–2 (convective center over of the east of Africa or the central‐western Indian Ocean), the SETIO is controlled by a dry condition, with increased surface insolation and suppressed latent heat release. These anomalous fluxes drive a persistent SST increase, facilitating the emergence of strong and prolonged MHWs in the subsequent RMM phases 3–4. Further analysis suggests an 18% probability for MHWs in the SETIO 12 ± 10 days after Phase 1. Therefore, the MJO contributes to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs of the SETIO, with implications for predicting climate extremes and hazards. Plain Language Summary: The South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) suffer from frequent and strong marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer. These events have significant impacts on the local environment. This research explores how the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) affects these MHWs and marine cold‐spells (MCSs). We find that MHWs and MCSs occurring with MJOs tend to persist longer than others. MHWs are overall stronger in phases 3–4 of the real‐time multivariate MJO (RMM) index than the others, while MCSs are enhanced in RMM phases 6–7. The MJO causes sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through surface heat fluxes. In RMM phases 1–2, the SETIO experiences dry condition with increased solar radiation and reduced wind speed, enhancing the likelihood of strong MHWs in subsequent phases 3–4. MJO is potentially helpful in predicting MHWs and MCSs. For example, there is an 18% probability of the MHW in the SETIO when the MJO evolves to RMM Phase 3 from RMM Phase 1 within 12 ± 10 days. This probability exceeds the 95% background occurrence probability (∼4%) by four folds. Generally, eastward propagating MJOs contribute to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs in the SETIO. Key Points: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) are modulated by MJOs and significantly enhanced in real‐time multivariate MJO phases 3–4MJOs drive intraseasonal temperature variability in the SETIO by surface shortwave radiation and latent heat flux and thereby modulate MHWsThe eastward‐propagating MJOs effectively contribute to the predictability of MHWs and marine cold‐spells in the SETIO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 60 years of oceanographic observations from Ocean Station Papa (OSP) in the northeast Pacific indicate faster dissolved oxygen loss than the global average. The greatest negative trends in oxygen concentration occur on isopycnals in the upper water column (σθ = 26.1–26.8 kg m−3, ∼110–200 m) but have considerable uncertainty due to natural variability. In this paper, we use eight Argo profiling floats equipped with optode oxygen sensors to assess the 2008–2016 interannual variability of subsurface dissolved oxygen near OSP. We developed a method using high frequency Conductivity‐Temperature‐Depth data to correct optode profiles for slow response times and used reference profiles from the OSP time series to calibrate the optodes. Response time correction markedly improves subsurface bias caused by slow optode equilibration. Our analysis indicates that episodic shoaling of isopycnals can cause rapid reduction in dissolved oxygen concentration. Changes in ventilation, horizontal mixing, and water mass age are unlikely drivers for the rapid O2 loss events examined. We link dissolved oxygen loss during shoaling events to organic matter export, due to higher concentrations of organic matter and greater respiration rates at shallower depths. Reduced net community production during the "Blob" marine heatwave may have reduced the impact of the second shoaling event examined. Natural variations in dissolved oxygen in these layers provide context for uncertainty estimates of long‐term trends and insight toward the potential for future extreme oxygen minima from the combined impact of the long‐term decline and episodic shoaling. Plain Language Summary: Oxygen dissolved in the ocean is declining worldwide as temperatures increase. Widespread ecological stress and altered marine chemistry will be a likely result. The subarctic northeast Pacific Ocean has been losing oxygen even faster than the global average rate. In this study, we use data from ocean observing robots in this region to investigate factors causing episodes of faster oxygen depletion. To do this accurately, we developed and applied a method to correct the data for how slowly the oxygen sensor responds as it moves upward through the water column. We identify two periods of rapid oxygen loss in subsurface water layers of about 1.5 years each. Both episodes happen when regional wind patterns cause these water layers to move closer to the surface. When shallower, these layers experience faster oxygen consumption by respiration, because the supply of organic detritus from the surface is higher. Such oxygen depletion episodes, driven by periodic wind shifts, can be regarded as natural variations in the ocean's oxygen content and need to be considered when interpreting the potential for long‐term anthropogenic trends. Key Points: We observe two episodes of rapid oxygen loss in the upper pycnocline of the NE Pacific coincident with isopycnal shoalingWe propose enhanced respiration at shallower depths as the most likely driver of oxygen declines during these shoaling eventsHigh‐frequency Conductivity‐Temperature‐Depth data can be used to obtain float ascent velocities to correct oxygen optode lag [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica, hereafter "puffin") reproductive success in the Gulf of Maine (GoM) has declined following a recent oceanographic regime shift that has led to rapid warming and increasingly frequent marine heatwaves. Concurrent changes in both the regional forage fish community and puffin chick diets and provisioning rates suggest that inadequate prey resources may be driving this decline. Traditional, noninvasive methods of diet assessment, however, are unable to determine seabird diet at many age classes and breeding stages. Methods: To determine what prey GoM puffins were feeding on during two years of marine heatwave conditions, we assessed puffin diet using two complementary methods: traditional, observational methods that utilize billload photography and emerging methods employing fecal DNA metabarcoding. We then examined the effect of methodology, age, breeding stage, and year on puffin diet composition. Results: We identified a strong correlation between the composition of chick diet as estimated through traditional and emerging methods, supporting the interpretation of DNA relative read abundance as a quantitative metric of diet composition. Both methods identified the same dominant prey groups yet metabarcoding identified a greater number of species and offered higher taxonomic resolution. Additionally, metabarcoding revealed adult puffin diet during the incubation period for the first time. Although puffin adults and chicks fed on many of the same prey types, adults consumed a greater variety of taxa and consumed more low quality prey types than they provisioned chicks. Discussion: For both age classes, diet varied both between and within years, likely reflecting changes in the local forage fish community in response to environmental variability. Puffins exploited unusual abundances of typically-uncommon prey during these two years of marine heatwave conditions, yet low puffin productivity suggests the observed dietary plasticity was not fully able to compensate for apparent prey shortages. Continued refinement of molecular methods and the interpretation of the data they provide will enable better assessments of how seabirds of diverse ages and breeding stages are adapting to changing prey communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) can directly influence survival of marine fishes, particularly for early life stages, including age-0 juveniles during their residence in coastal nursery habitats. However, the ability of nurseries to support high fish densities, optimize foraging and growth, and protect against predators may be altered during MHWs. Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) larval, juvenile, and adult abundances declined dramatically following MHW events in 2014–2016 and 2019. To evaluate coastal nursery function during MHWs, we compared diet composition, recent growth, size, condition, and abundance of age-0 juveniles throughout their first summer before, during, and between MHWs. Diet shifted to larger prey during MHWs, particularly mysids, but diet did not appear to influence growth. We observed faster growth rates during MHWs, yet even when accounting for growth, we could not explain the higher body sizes observed in August during MHWs. Together with lower abundance and the near absence of small fish in the nursery by August during MHWs, these patterns highlight potential for size-selection and a reduced ability of nursery habitats to buffer against environmental variability during MHWs, with only a small number of large "super survivors" persisting through the summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harmful algal blooms caused by toxin‐producing species of the diatom genus Pseudo‐nitzschia have been linked to anomalously warm ocean conditions in the Northern California Current System. This study compares summertime concentrations of Pseudo‐nitzschia spp. and the toxin they produce, domoic acid, during a marine heatwave year (2019) and a climatologically neutral year (2021). An Imaging FlowCytobot was installed on a fishery survey vessel alongside environmental sensors to continuously sample phytoplankton and oceanographic parameters. This was paired with targeted manual sample collections for nutrients, chlorophyll, and domoic acid. Accumulations of Pseudo‐nitzschia spp. were associated with upwelling zones and established hotspot regions: the Juan de Fuca Eddy, Heceta Bank, and Trinidad Head. Overall, however, Pseudo‐nitzschia spp. and domoic acid concentrations were low during both summers and appear to have been limited by nitrate. Nutrient availability may therefore modulate the response of Pseudo‐nitzschia spp. to warm anomalies. Comparison of these results with 2015, another marine heatwave year but one that produced record concentrations of Pseudo‐nitzschia spp. and domoic acid, suggests that the timing of marine heatwave conditions in the nearshore relative to seasonal upwelling plays a key role in determining whether a Pseudo‐nitzschia spp. harmful algal bloom will occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic pressures threaten biodiversity, necessitating conservation actions founded on robust ecological models. However, prevailing models inadequately capture the spatiotemporal variation in environmental pressures faced by species with high mobility or complex life histories, as data are often aggregated across species' life histories or spatial distributions. We highlight the limitations of static models for dynamic species and incorporate life history variation and spatial distributions for species and stressors into a trait-based vulnerability and impact model. We use green sea turtles in the Greater Caribbean Region to demonstrate how vulnerability and anthropogenic impact for a dynamic species change across four life stages. By incorporating life stages into a trait-based vulnerability model, we observed life stage-specific vulnerabilities that were otherwise unnoticed when using an aggregated trait value set. Early life stages were more vulnerable to some stressors, such as inorganic pollution or marine heat waves, and less vulnerable to others, such as bycatch. Incorporating spatial distributions of stressors and life stages revealed impacts differ for each life stage across spatial areas, emphasizing the importance of stage-specific conservation measures. Our approach showcases the importance of incorporating dynamic processes into ecological models and will enable better and more targeted conservation actions for species with complex life histories and high mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), prolonged periods of abnormally high sea temperature, have greater devastating impacts on marine ecosystem services and socioeconomic systems than gradual long-term ocean warming. Despite growing evidence of increases in MHW frequency, duration, and intensity, their interseasonal variations remain unclear. Using satellite-derived daily sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1982 to 2022, this work reveals a strong seasonality in MHWs. Typically, the highest cumulative intensity, characterizing total impacts on ecosystems, occurs during the local warm seasons in most oceans, leading to a significant interseasonal difference between warm and cold seasons. The interseasonal difference is predominantly driven by air-sea heat flux, rather than oceanic horizontal advection and vertical process. An increase in these interseasonal differences is observed in mid and high latitudes, with a significant increase in the warm season and a weaker trend in the cold season. In the Equatorial Pacific and Western Equatorial Indian Ocean, intense MHWs are primarily exacerbated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which also determines interseasonal variations in MHWs. Understanding the seasonality of MHWs can help better formulate corresponding policies to reduce economic and ecological losses caused by these events and can improve the accuracy of future predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal-borne tags are effective instruments for collecting ocean data and can be used to fill spatial gaps in the observing network. We deployed the first conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) satellite tags on the dorsal fin of salmon sharks (Lamna ditropis) to demonstrate the potential of sharks to monitor essential ocean variables and oceanographic features in the Gulf of Alaska. Over 1360 km and 36 days in the summer of 2015, the salmon shark collected 56 geolocated, temperature-salinity profiles. The shark swam through a plume of anomalously salty water that originated from the "Blob" and encountered several mesoscale eddies, whose subsurface properties were altered by the marine heatwave. We demonstrate that salmon sharks have the potential to serve as submesoscale-resolving oceanographic platforms and substantially increase the spatial coverage of observations in the Gulf of Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasingly intense marine heatwaves affecting nearshore regions, foundation species are coming under increasing stress. To better understand their impacts, we examine responses of critical, habitat-forming foundation species (macroalgae, seagrass, corals) to marine heatwaves in 1322 shallow coastal areas located across 85 marine ecoregions. We find compelling evidence that intense, summer marine heatwaves play a significant role in the decline of foundation species globally. Critically, detrimental effects increase towards species warm-range edges and over time. We also identify several ecoregions where foundation species don't respond to marine heatwaves, suggestive of some resilience to warming events. Cumulative marine heatwave intensity, absolute temperature, and location within a species' range are key factors mediating impacts. Our results suggest many coastal ecosystems are losing foundation species, potentially impacting associated biodiversity, ecological function, and ecosystem services provision. Understanding relationships between marine heatwaves and foundation species offers the potential to predict impacts that are critical for developing management and adaptation approaches. To better understand the impacts of marine heatwaves in coastal ecosystems, this study examined the responses of habitat-forming species (macroalgae, seagrass, and corals) to heatwave events in 1322 areas across 85 marine ecoregions. The results suggest marine heatwaves play a key role in the decline of habitat-forming species globally, although some areas exhibit a level of resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal El Niño events—marine heatwaves instances in the far eastern Tropical Pacific during otherwise basin-scale neutral or cold conditions—can have severe societal impacts for countries along the west coast of South America, as exemplified by the 2017 and 2023 Peru-Ecuador floods. Due to the brevity of the observational record, it is not well understood whether these events are driven by local or large-scale processes. Here, to overcome this limitation we use a data-driven modeling approach to address their return period and forcing mechanisms. It is shown that extreme coastal El Niño events are a local manifestation in the eastern tropical Pacific of the constructive interactions of the Pacific Meridional Modes (PMM). Specifically, the North PMM yields a dipole-like anomaly SST pattern along the equator that favors its development, while the positive phase of the South PMM reinforces it. A smaller group of more moderate coastal events are remotely driven by zonal wind anomalies in the western tropical Pacific without the PMMs' influence. The role of PMMs in the development of extreme coastal El Niño suggests that they may be more predictable than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global climate change, Subsurface Marine Heatwaves (SSMHWs) have become a 'hot-spot' research due to their significant impacts on marine ecosystems. Temperature data from the ECCO2 for the years 1992 to 2021 is used to research the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSMHWs in the upper 500 m over the Xisha region (110°E to 113°E, 15°N to 18°N). This study indicates that SSMHWs of high intensity occur in the Xisha area, with the vertical maximum intensity at approximately 100 m. These events exhibit significant seasonal variations, with the highest intensity occurring in May. The intensity of SSMHW in the analysis region varies interannually. SSMHWs have intensified at a rate of 1.53°C·Days/Year and tend to shift to deeper water over the past three decades. A block-based method for SSMHW identification is proposed, in order to take the vertical extent of the event in consideration. By analyzing the eight most intense events based on spatial cumulative intensity, it suggested that warm mesoscale eddies may play an important role on the spatial distribution of the SSMHWs. Statistical analysis shows that the intensity and coverage of the warm mesoscale eddy in the Xisha zone may influence the intensity and evolution of the SSMHWs. Additionally, only 18.27% of SSMHW events occur with apparent surface marine heatwave signals. These findings are vital for uncovering SSMHW dynamics in the Xisha area, and are important for future monitoring, early warnings and marine conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past few decades, both the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased globally, which has been attributed to ocean surface warming. This study investigates the trend in the MHW intensity in the marginal seas of China and contributions of seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) trend and subseasonal (time periods less than 90 days) SST variance trend. The MHW intensity trend displays spatially non-uniform features and seasonal differences. It is found that both seasonal mean SST trend and subseasonal SST variance trend are required to account for the MHW mean intensity trend. In most of the South China Sea, subseasonal SST variance displays a decreasing trend, indicating a reduction in day-to-day SST fluctuations. This results in weak or negative trend in the MHW mean intensity though seasonal mean SST displays a prominent rising trend. In the Gulf of Tonkin in winter and the eastern Yellow Sea in summer where seasonal mean SST trend is relatively small, subseasonal SST variance trend induces an increasing trend in the MHW mean intensity. In the East China Sea in winter, seasonal mean SST increasing trend has a main contribution and the increased subseasonal SST variance has a supplementary contribution to the increase in the MHW mean intensity. Further analysis reveals that the subseasonal SST variance is regulated by the seasonal mean SST gradient. A decrease (an increase) in mean SST gradient leads to reduced (enhanced) subseasonal SST variance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In May 2023, oceanic and atmospheric anomalies indicated El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific, followed by coral bleaching in coral communities and reefs of Huatulco. We conducted surveys and sampled coral reef communities from late June to mid–August of 2023 to evaluate the intensity and extent of the changes associated with the warming event. From January of 2023, Huatulco experienced positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; however, beginning in June, the high-temperature anomalies became extreme (>31 °C; ~2 °C above historical records). These high temperatures resulted in extensive coral bleaching in middle–late June and mortality from middle–late July (>50–93%). In addition, the area experienced significant reductions in echinoderm abundance and fish biomass. In 2023, severe bleaching affected coral systems in the Central Mexican Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Mexican Caribbean, making this the most devastating marine heatwave event, simultaneously impacting coral reefs across Mexico's Pacific and Atlantic coasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased worldwide in intensity, frequency, and duration, often with severe impacts on ecologically and socio-economically important coastal habitats. Most MHW studies have focused on summer events in specific regions or global open-water analyses with little consideration to seasonality or spatial biogeography of the nearshore zone. We address this research gap by analysing changes to MHWs across seasons and ecoregions, within 12 nautical miles (NM) of New Zealand's coastline, an area with high biodiversity and endemism. We used season-specific linear trend analysis with temporal breakpoints between 1982 and 2021 to identify the number of MHW events and MHW days, and mean, maximum, and cumulative intensity of MHWs for New Zealand coastal ecoregions. Across ecoregions, 69.5% of 200 trend analyses increased significantly whereas the remaining 30.5% were unaffected. For the significant increases, temporal breakpoints occurred between 1994 and 2012. We conclude that MHWs have become stronger, longer and more frequent across coastal New Zealand, but with some variability within and between regions. Our trend-analyses could enable retrospective analyses of biological tipping-points and inform management practices that may enhance the resilience of ecoregions yet to face MHW breakpoints or those in the initial stages of major climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation planning traditionally relies upon static reserves; however, there is increasing emphasis on dynamic management (DM) strategies that are flexible in space and time. Due to its novelty, DM lacks best practices to guide design and implementation. We assessed the effect of planning unit size in a DM tool designed to reduce entanglement of protected whales in vertical ropes of surface buoys attached to crab traps in the lucrative U.S. Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery. We conducted a retrospective analysis from 2009 to 2019 with modeled distributions of blue (Balaenoptera musculus) and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) whales and observed fisheries effort and revenue to evaluate the effect of 7 planning unit sizes on DM tool performance. We measured performance as avoided whale entanglement risk and protected fisheries revenue. Small planning units avoided up to $47 million of revenue loss and reduced entanglement risk by up to 25% compared to the large planning units currently in use by avoiding the incidental closure of areas with low biodiversity value and high fisheries revenue. However, large planning units were less affected by an unprecedented marine heat wave in 2014–2016 and by delays in information on the distributions of whales and the fishery. Our findings suggest that the choice of planning unit size will require decision‐makers to navigate multiple socioecological considerations—rather than a one‐size‐fits‐all approach—to separate wildlife from threats under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]