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The present study investigates different combinations and methods for estimating the extreme Total Water Level (TWL) and its implications for predicting flood extension caused by coastal storms. This study analyses various TWL components and approaches and assesses how different methodologies alter flood predictions, with implications for warning systems and emergency responses. Using different combinations of individual TWL components, flood extension simulations were conducted using a hydrodynamic model in the Volano Beach area (Emilia-Romagna, Italy). A real coastal storm event was used as a reference for comparison. The findings indicate that the selection of individual TWL components and calculation methods significantly impacts flood extension predictions. The approaches, which involve calculating extreme values from a combined time series or the water level time series plus the extreme value of wave setup, yield the most realistic results, excluding the runup component. In comparison, the other combinations overestimate the flood. Incorporating hydromorphological models like XBeach could enhance the accuracy of runup estimations and improve the overall method reliability. Despite limitations such as runup estimation and the use of generic regional parameters, this study underscores the importance of the TWL combination selection in accurately predicting flood extents, emphasising the need for context-specific adaptations in environmental contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over recent years, processes related to marine storms, sediment shortages and human intervention have caused the global retreat of many coastal systems and the degradation of their dunes. In this context, changes in the dune toe are commonly used as a proxy to study the interannual shoreline evolution, and it is usually analyzed using orthophotography, while high temporal- and spatial-scale resolution studies of dune toe evolution are not frequent. In this work, a quasi-monthly study of dune toe data was carried out between 2008 and 2018. These data, taken from the RTK-DGPS and UAS systems, were subjected to shoreline analysis, and they showed an average regression rate of −2.30 m/year, a higher value than the one registered until 2008 (1 m/year). This suggests an acceleration in the erosion suffered within the system, which was revealed to be more intense in the northern sector of the study area. Dune toe variability increased over the years, probably due to the presence of washover fans breaking the foredune that were reactivated and expanded during storm events. The ephemeral progradation of the dune toe was also noted, which could be explained with reference to wind events and/or beach nourishment that had been carried out over the studied period. From the analysis of the dune toe elevation, a decrease in this variable was obtained, especially in the areas affected due to washover fans. This finding is supported by the significant correlation of the dune toe elevation and erosion trend, suggesting that the areas where the dune toe was lower are prone to suffering a greater retreat. This correlation provides insight into the future evolution of the barrier, suggesting a state of degradation and a transition to a lower-resilience state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents the approach used to estimate coastal flood impact, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) Project, for assessing flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The methodology integrates object-based and probabilistic evaluations to provide uncertainty estimates for damage assessment. The approach underwent a user-driven co-evaluation process, it was applied to 16 test cases across Europe and validated against reported impact data in three major reference cases: Xynthia at La Faute-sur-Mer (France) in 2010, Xaver at Norfolk (UK) in 2013, and Emma at Cadiz (Spain) in 2018. A comparison with grid-based damage evaluation methods was also conducted. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches. The methodology also provides information for prevention and preparedness activities, facilitates further evaluations of risk scenarios and cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk reduction strategies. The approach is a tool suitable for large-scale coastal flood impact assessments, offering improved accuracy and operational capability for coastal flood forecasts. It represents a potential advancement of the existing EU-scale impact method used by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) for riverine flood warnings. The integration of object-based and probabilistic evaluations, along with uncertainty estimation, enhances the understanding and management of flood impacts along the European coasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how organizations operate in different environments has been at the core of organizational research for decades. Three distinct bodies of literature have emerged, with limited cross-pollination among them: routines, heuristics, and improvisation. We add to the existing literature by studying these three types of organizational responses simultaneously via an in-depth longitudinal study of an organization that encountered increasing levels of environmental dynamism. We pay particular attention to explaining how and why routines broke down, prompting the emergence of heuristics or improvisations, as well as when these three responses were used in tandem and when they interacted with each other. Our theoretical model identifies the triggers of heuristics and improvisations and the focal context that led to routines breaking down. We define 'focal context' as a constructed temporary reality that encompasses both the objective traits of the environment experienced by the organization at a particular point in time, as well as the subjective perceptions that organizational members had of that reality. We also identify the mechanisms of cognitive search and social convergence that led to the creation of nonroutine responses. Finally, we use our insights to clarify the existing overlaps in the conceptualization of the three organizational responses. Our field study is based on a mountaineering expedition to climb one of the most difficult sides of Mount Everest, the Kangshung face, an archetypical case that is particularly well suited to the development of a new theory in which rich data are required to study the phenomena. Keywords: routines * heuristics * improvisation * organizational response * uncertainty, Introduction The study of how organizations adapt and operate in different environments has been at the core of organizational studies for more than half a century (Selznick 1957). Early theories [...]

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