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1. Positive feedbacks and alternative stable states in forest leaf types

Author

Zou, Yibiao, Zohner, Constantin M, Averill, Colin, Ma, Haozhi, Merder, Julian, Berdugo, Miguel, Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia, Mo, Lidong, Brun, Philipp, Zimmermann, Niklaus E, Liang, Jingjing, de-Miguel, Sergio, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Reich, Peter B, Niinements, Ulo, Dahlgren, Jonas, Kändler, Gerald, Ratcliffe, Sophia, Ruiz-Benito, Paloma, de Zavala, Miguel Angel, and Crowther, Thomas W

Subjects
Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences, Biological Sciences, Ecology, Forestry Sciences
Abstract

Abstract: The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

Published
2024

3. Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Author

Mo, Lidong, Zohner, Constantin M, Reich, Peter B, Liang, Jingjing, de Miguel, Sergio, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Renner, Susanne S, van den Hoogen, Johan, Araza, Arnan, Herold, Martin, Mirzagholi, Leila, Ma, Haozhi, Averill, Colin, Phillips, Oliver L, Gamarra, Javier GP, Hordijk, Iris, Routh, Devin, Abegg, Meinrad, Adou Yao, Yves C, Alberti, Giorgio, Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M, Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez, Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban, Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia, Alves, Luciana F, Amaral, Iêda, Ammer, Christian, Antón-Fernández, Clara, Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro, Arroyo, Luzmila, Avitabile, Valerio, Aymard, Gerardo A, Baker, Timothy R, Bałazy, Radomir, Banki, Olaf, Barroso, Jorcely G, Bastian, Meredith L, Bastin, Jean-Francois, Birigazzi, Luca, Birnbaum, Philippe, Bitariho, Robert, Boeckx, Pascal, Bongers, Frans, Bouriaud, Olivier, Brancalion, Pedro HS, Brandl, Susanne, Brearley, Francis Q, Brienen, Roel, Broadbent, Eben N, Bruelheide, Helge, Bussotti, Filippo, Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto, César, Ricardo G, Cesljar, Goran, Chazdon, Robin L, Chen, Han YH, Chisholm, Chelsea, Cho, Hyunkook, Cienciala, Emil, Clark, Connie, Clark, David, Colletta, Gabriel D, Coomes, David A, Cornejo Valverde, Fernando, Corral-Rivas, José J, Crim, Philip M, Cumming, Jonathan R, Dayanandan, Selvadurai, de Gasper, André L, Decuyper, Mathieu, Derroire, Géraldine, DeVries, Ben, Djordjevic, Ilija, Dolezal, Jiri, Dourdain, Aurélie, Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier, Enquist, Brian J, Eyre, Teresa J, Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain, Fayle, Tom M, Feldpausch, Ted R, Ferreira, Leandro V, Finér, Leena, Fischer, Markus, Fletcher, Christine, Frizzera, Lorenzo, Gianelle, Damiano, Glick, Henry B, Harris, David J, Hector, Andrew, Hemp, Andreas, Hengeveld, Geerten, Hérault, Bruno, Herbohn, John L, Hillers, Annika, Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N, Hui, Cang, Ibanez, Thomas, Imai, Nobuo, and Jagodziński, Andrzej M

Subjects
Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences, Ecological Applications, Environmental Sciences, Forestry Sciences, Life on Land, Humans, Ecosystem, Carbon, Conservation of Natural Resources, Forests, Biodiversity, Carbon Sequestration, General Science & Technology
Abstract

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Published
2023

4. The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Author

Ma, Haozhi, Crowther, Thomas W, Mo, Lidong, Maynard, Daniel S, Renner, Susanne S, van den Hoogen, Johan, Zou, Yibiao, Liang, Jingjing, de-Miguel, Sergio, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Reich, Peter B, Niinemets, Ülo, Abegg, Meinrad, Adou Yao, Yves C, Alberti, Giorgio, Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M, Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez, Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban, Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia, Alves, Luciana F, Ammer, Christian, Antón-Fernández, Clara, Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro, Arroyo, Luzmila, Avitabile, Valerio, Aymard, Gerardo A, Baker, Timothy R, Bałazy, Radomir, Banki, Olaf, Barroso, Jorcely G, Bastian, Meredith L, Bastin, Jean-Francois, Birigazzi, Luca, Birnbaum, Philippe, Bitariho, Robert, Boeckx, Pascal, Bongers, Frans, Bouriaud, Olivier, Brancalion, Pedro HS, Brandl, Susanne, Brearley, Francis Q, Brienen, Roel, Broadbent, Eben N, Bruelheide, Helge, Bussotti, Filippo, Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto, César, Ricardo G, Cesljar, Goran, Chazdon, Robin, Chen, Han YH, Chisholm, Chelsea, Cho, Hyunkook, Cienciala, Emil, Clark, Connie, Clark, David, Colletta, Gabriel D, Coomes, David A, Valverde, Fernando Cornejo, Corral-Rivas, José J, Crim, Philip M, Cumming, Jonathan R, Dayanandan, Selvadurai, de Gasper, André L, Decuyper, Mathieu, Derroire, Géraldine, DeVries, Ben, Djordjevic, Ilija, Dolezal, Jiri, Dourdain, Aurélie, Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier, Enquist, Brian J, Eyre, Teresa J, Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain, Fayle, Tom M, Feldpausch, Ted R, Ferreira, Leandro V, Finér, Leena, Fischer, Markus, Fletcher, Christine, Fridman, Jonas, Frizzera, Lorenzo, Gamarra, Javier GP, Gianelle, Damiano, Glick, Henry B, Harris, David J, Hector, Andrew, Hemp, Andreas, Hengeveld, Geerten, Hérault, Bruno, Herbohn, John L, Herold, Martin, Hillers, Annika, Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N, Hui, Cang, Ibanez, Thomas T, Amaral, Iêda, Imai, Nobuo, Jagodziński, Andrzej M, Jaroszewicz, Bogdan, and Johannsen, Vivian Kvist

Subjects
Biological Sciences, Ecology, Climate Action, Plant Biology, Crop and Pasture Production, Plant biology
Abstract

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

Published
2023

8. Global relationships in tree functional traits

Author

Maynard, Daniel S., Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia, Zohner, Constantin M., Averill, Colin, van den Hoogen, Johan, Ma, Haozhi, Mo, Lidong, Smith, Gabriel Reuben, Acosta, Alicia T. R., Aubin, Isabelle, Berenguer, Erika, Boonman, Coline C. F., Catford, Jane A., Cerabolini, Bruno E. L., Dias, Arildo S., González-Melo, Andrés, Hietz, Peter, Lusk, Christopher H., Mori, Akira S., Niinemets, Ülo, Pillar, Valério D., Pinho, Bruno X., Rosell, Julieta A., Schurr, Frank M., Sheremetev, Serge N., da Silva, Ana Carolina, Sosinski, Ênio, van Bodegom, Peter M., Weiher, Evan, Bönisch, Gerhard, Kattge, Jens, and Crowther, Thomas W.

Published
2022
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9. Ten simple rules for using large language models in science, version 1.0

Author

Smith, Gabriel Reuben, primary, Bello, Carolina, additional, Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia, additional, Clark, Emily, additional, Delavaux, Camille S., additional, Fournier de Lauriere, Camille, additional, van den Hoogen, Johan, additional, Lauber, Thomas, additional, Ma, Haozhi, additional, Maynard, Daniel S., additional, Mirman, Matthew, additional, Mo, Lidong, additional, Rebindaine, Dominic, additional, Reek, Josephine Elena, additional, Werden, Leland K., additional, Wu, Zhaofei, additional, Yang, Gayoung, additional, Zhao, Qingzhou, additional, Zohner, Constantin M., additional, and Crowther, Thomas W., additional

Published
2024
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12. The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Author

Ma, Haozhi, primary, Crowther, Thomas W., additional, Mo, Lidong, additional, Maynard, Daniel S., additional, Renner, Susanne S., additional, van den Hoogen, Johan, additional, Zou, Yibiao, additional, Liang, Jingjing, additional, de-Miguel, Sergio, additional, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, additional, Reich, Peter B., additional, Niinemets, Ülo, additional, Abegg, Meinrad, additional, Adou Yao, Yves C., additional, Alberti, Giorgio, additional, Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M., additional, Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez, additional, Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban, additional, Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia, additional, Alves, Luciana F., additional, Ammer, Christian, additional, Antón-Fernández, Clara, additional, Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro, additional, Arroyo, Luzmila, additional, Avitabile, Valerio, additional, Aymard, Gerardo A., additional, Baker, Timothy R., additional, Bałazy, Radomir, additional, Banki, Olaf, additional, Barroso, Jorcely G., additional, Bastian, Meredith L., additional, Bastin, Jean-Francois, additional, Birigazzi, Luca, additional, Birnbaum, Philippe, additional, Bitariho, Robert, additional, Boeckx, Pascal, additional, Bongers, Frans, additional, Bouriaud, Olivier, additional, Brancalion, Pedro H. S., additional, Brandl, Susanne, additional, Brearley, Francis Q., additional, Brienen, Roel, additional, Broadbent, Eben N., additional, Bruelheide, Helge, additional, Bussotti, Filippo, additional, Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto, additional, César, Ricardo G., additional, Cesljar, Goran, additional, Chazdon, Robin, additional, Chen, Han Y. H., additional, Chisholm, Chelsea, additional, Cho, Hyunkook, additional, Cienciala, Emil, additional, Clark, Connie, additional, Clark, David, additional, Colletta, Gabriel D., additional, Coomes, David A., additional, Valverde, Fernando Cornejo, additional, Corral-Rivas, José J., additional, Crim, Philip M., additional, Cumming, Jonathan R., additional, Dayanandan, Selvadurai, additional, de Gasper, André L., additional, Decuyper, Mathieu, additional, Derroire, Géraldine, additional, DeVries, Ben, additional, Djordjevic, Ilija, additional, Dolezal, Jiri, additional, Dourdain, Aurélie, additional, Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier, additional, Enquist, Brian J., additional, Eyre, Teresa J., additional, Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain, additional, Fayle, Tom M., additional, Feldpausch, Ted R., additional, Ferreira, Leandro V., additional, Finér, Leena, additional, Fischer, Markus, additional, Fletcher, Christine, additional, Fridman, Jonas, additional, Frizzera, Lorenzo, additional, Gamarra, Javier G. P., additional, Gianelle, Damiano, additional, Glick, Henry B., additional, Harris, David J., additional, Hector, Andrew, additional, Hemp, Andreas, additional, Hengeveld, Geerten, additional, Hérault, Bruno, additional, Herbohn, John L., additional, Herold, Martin, additional, Hillers, Annika, additional, Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N., additional, Hui, Cang, additional, Ibanez, Thomas T., additional, Amaral, Iêda, additional, Imai, Nobuo, additional, Jagodziński, Andrzej M., additional, Jaroszewicz, Bogdan, additional, Johannsen, Vivian Kvist, additional, Joly, Carlos A., additional, Jucker, Tommaso, additional, Jung, Ilbin, additional, Karminov, Viktor, additional, Kartawinata, Kuswata, additional, Kearsley, Elizabeth, additional, Kenfack, David, additional, Kennard, Deborah K., additional, Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian, additional, Keppel, Gunnar, additional, Khan, Mohammed Latif, additional, Killeen, Timothy J., additional, Kim, Hyun Seok, additional, Kitayama, Kanehiro, additional, Köhl, Michael, additional, Korjus, Henn, additional, Kraxner, Florian, additional, Kucher, Dmitry, additional, Laarmann, Diana, additional, Lang, Mait, additional, Lewis, Simon L., additional, Lu, Huicui, additional, Lukina, Natalia V., additional, Maitner, Brian S., additional, Malhi, Yadvinder, additional, Marcon, Eric, additional, Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes, additional, Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur, additional, Marshall, Andrew R., additional, Martin, Emanuel H., additional, Meave, Jorge A., additional, Melo-Cruz, Omar, additional, Mendoza, Casimiro, additional, Merow, Cory, additional, Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel, additional, Moreno, Vanessa S., additional, Mukul, Sharif A., additional, Mundhenk, Philip, additional, Nava-Miranda, María Guadalupe, additional, Neill, David, additional, Neldner, Victor J., additional, Nevenic, Radovan V., additional, Ngugi, Michael R., additional, Niklaus, Pascal A., additional, Oleksyn, Jacek, additional, Ontikov, Petr, additional, Ortiz-Malavasi, Edgar, additional, Pan, Yude, additional, Paquette, Alain, additional, Parada-Gutierrez, Alexander, additional, Parfenova, Elena I., additional, Park, Minjee, additional, Parren, Marc, additional, Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy, additional, Peri, Pablo L., additional, Pfautsch, Sebastian, additional, Phillips, Oliver L., additional, Picard, Nicolas, additional, Piedade, Maria Teresa F., additional, Piotto, Daniel, additional, Pitman, Nigel C. A., additional, Mendoza-Polo, Irina, additional, Poulsen, Axel D., additional, Poulsen, John R., additional, Pretzsch, Hans, additional, Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy, additional, Restrepo-Correa, Zorayda, additional, Rodeghiero, Mirco, additional, Rolim, Samir G., additional, Roopsind, Anand, additional, Rovero, Francesco, additional, Rutishauser, Ervan, additional, Saikia, Purabi, additional, Salas-Eljatib, Christian, additional, Saner, Philippe, additional, Schall, Peter, additional, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, additional, Schepaschenko, Dmitry, additional, Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael, additional, Schmid, Bernhard, additional, Schöngart, Jochen, additional, Searle, Eric B., additional, Seben, Vladimír, additional, Serra-Diaz, Josep M., additional, Sheil, Douglas, additional, Shvidenko, Anatoly Z., additional, Silva-Espejo, Javier E., additional, Silveira, Marcos, additional, Singh, James, additional, Sist, Plinio, additional, Slik, Ferry, additional, Sonké, Bonaventure, additional, Souza, Alexandre F., additional, Miścicki, Stanislaw, additional, Stereńczak, Krzysztof J., additional, Svenning, Jens-Christian, additional, Svoboda, Miroslav, additional, Swanepoel, Ben, additional, Targhetta, Natalia, additional, Tchebakova, Nadja, additional, ter Steege, Hans, additional, Thomas, Raquel, additional, Tikhonova, Elena, additional, Umunay, Peter M., additional, Usoltsev, Vladimir A., additional, Valencia, Renato, additional, Valladares, Fernando, additional, van der Plas, Fons, additional, Van Do, Tran, additional, van Nuland, Michael E., additional, Vasquez, Rodolfo M., additional, Verbeeck, Hans, additional, Viana, Helder, additional, Vibrans, Alexander C., additional, Vieira, Simone, additional, von Gadow, Klaus, additional, Wang, Hua-Feng, additional, Watson, James V., additional, Werner, Gijsbert D. A., additional, Westerlund, Bertil, additional, Wiser, Susan K., additional, Wittmann, Florian, additional, Woell, Hannsjoerg, additional, Wortel, Verginia, additional, Zagt, Roderick, additional, Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Tomasz, additional, Zhang, Chunyu, additional, Zhao, Xiuhai, additional, Zhou, Mo, additional, Zhu, Zhi-Xin, additional, Zo-Bi, Irie C., additional, and Zohner, Constantin M., additional

Published
2023
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20. Inferring plant-plant interactions using remote sensing

Author

Chen, Bin J.W., Teng, Shuqing N., Zheng, Guang, Cui, Lijuan, Li, Shao-peng, Staal, Arie, Eitel, Jan U.H., Crowther, Thomas W., Berdugo, Miguel, Mo, Lidong, Ma, Haozhi, Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia, Zohner, Constantin, Maynard, Daniel S., Averill, Colin, Zhang, Jian, He, Qiang, Evers, Jochem B., Anten, Niels P.R., Yizhaq, Hezi, Stavi, Ilan, Argaman, Eli, Basson, Uri, Xu, Zhiwei, Zhang, Ming-Juan, Niu, Kechang, Liu, Quan-Xing, and Xu, Chi

Subjects
remote sensing, spatial pattern, alternative stable states, community structure, competition, facilitation, non-invasive imaging, plant–plant interactions, self-organization, transient dynamics
Abstract

1. Rapid technological advancements and increasing data availability have improved the capacity to monitor and evaluate Earth's ecology via remote sensing. However, remote sensing is notoriously ‘blind’ to fine-scale ecological processes such as interactions among plants, which encompass a central topic in ecology. 2. Here, we discuss how remote sensing technologies can help infer plant–plant interactions and their roles in shaping plant-based systems at individual, community and landscape levels. At each of these levels, we outline the key attributes of ecosystems that emerge as a product of plant–plant interactions and could possibly be detected by remote sensing data. We review the theoretical bases, approaches and prospects of how inference of plant–plant interactions can be assessed remotely. 3. At the individual level, we illustrate how close-range remote sensing tools can help to infer plant–plant interactions, especially in experimental settings. At the community level, we use forests to illustrate how remotely sensed community structure can be used to infer dominant interactions as a fundamental force in shaping plant communities. At the landscape level, we highlight how remotely sensed attributes of vegetation states and spatial vegetation patterns can be used to assess the role of local plant–plant interactions in shaping landscape ecological systems. 4. $Synthesis$. Remote sensing extends the domain of plant ecology to broader and finer spatial scales, assisting to scale ecological patterns and search for generic rules. Robust remote sensing approaches are likely to extend our understanding of how plant–plant interactions shape ecological processes across scales—from individuals to landscapes. Combining these approaches with theories, models, experiments, data-driven approaches and data analysis algorithms will firmly embed remote sensing techniques into ecological context and open new pathways to better understand biotic interactions., Journal of Ecology, 110 (10), ISSN:0022-0477

Published
2022

24. Global trade-offs in tree functional traits

Author

Maynard, Daniel S., primary, Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia, additional, Zohner, Constantin M., additional, Averill, Colin, additional, van den Hoogen, Johan, additional, Ma, Haozhi, additional, Mo, Lidong, additional, Smith, Gabriel Reuben, additional, Aubin, Isabelle, additional, Berenguer, Erika, additional, Boonman, Coline C.F., additional, Catford, Jane, additional, Cerabolini, Bruno E.L., additional, Dias, Arildo, additional, González-Melo, Andrés, additional, Heitz, Peter, additional, Lusk, Christopher H., additional, Mori, Akira S., additional, Niinemets, Ülo, additional, Pillar, Valério D., additional, Rosell, Julieta A., additional, Schurr, Frank M., additional, Sheremetev, Serge N., additional, da Silva, Ana Carolina, additional, Sosinski, Ênio, additional, van Bodegom, Peter M., additional, Weiher, Evan, additional, Bönisch, Gerhard, additional, Kattge, Jens, additional, and Crowther, Thomas W., additional

Published
2021
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27. Correction: Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues

Author

Bastin, Jean-Francois, primary, Clark, Emily, additional, Elliott, Thomas, additional, Hart, Simon, additional, van den Hoogen, Johan, additional, Hordijk, Iris, additional, Ma, Haozhi, additional, Majumder, Sabiha, additional, Manoli, Gabriele, additional, Maschler, Julia, additional, Mo, Lidong, additional, Routh, Devin, additional, Yu, Kailiang, additional, Zohner, Constantin M., additional, and Crowther, Thomas W., additional

Published
2019
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28. Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues

Author

Bastin, Jean-Francois, Clark, Emily, Elliott, Thomas, Hart, Simon, van den Hoogen, Johan, Hordijk, Iris, Ma, Haozhi, Majumder, Sabiha, Manoli, Gabriele, Maschler, Julia, Mo, Lidong, Routh, Devin, Yu, Kailiang, Zohner, Constantin M., and Crowther, Thomas W.

Subjects
Cartography, Atmospheric Science, Climate Change, Science, Research and Analysis Methods, Geographical locations, Mathematical and Statistical Techniques, Statistical Methods, Geographic Areas, Northern Hemisphere, Climatology, Principal Component Analysis, Latitude, Geography, Statistics, Europe, Earth sciences, Multivariate Analysis, Physical Sciences, People and Places, North America, Medicine, Southern Hemisphere, Mathematics, Research Article, Urban Areas
Abstract

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech’s climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change., PLoS ONE, 14 (7), ISSN:1932-6203

Published
2019

30. Cities of the future, visualizing climate change to inspire actions

Author

Bastin, Jean-Francois, primary, Clark, Emily, additional, Elliott, Thomas, additional, Hart, Simon, additional, den Hoogen, Johan van, additional, Hordijk, Iris, additional, Ma, Haozhi, additional, Majumder, Sabiha, additional, Manoli, Gabriele, additional, Maschler, Julia, additional, Mo, Lidong, additional, Routh, Devin, additional, Yu, Kailiang, additional, Zohner, Constantin, additional, and Crowther, Thomas, W., additional

Published
2018
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40. Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues

Author

Añel, Juan A., Bastin, Jean-Francois, Clark, Emily, Elliott, Thomas, Hart, Simon, van den Hoogen, Johan, Hordijk, Iris, Ma, Haozhi, Majumder, Sabiha, Manoli, Gabriele, Maschler, Julia, Mo, Lidong, Routh, Devin, Yu, Kailiang, Zohner, Constantin M., and Crowther, Thomas W.

Abstract

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech’s climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.

41. Global relationships in tree functional traits

Author

Daniel S. Maynard, Lalasia Bialic-Murphy, Constantin M. Zohner, Colin Averill, Johan van den Hoogen, Haozhi Ma, Lidong Mo, Gabriel Reuben Smith, Alicia T. R. Acosta, Isabelle Aubin, Erika Berenguer, Coline C. F. Boonman, Jane A. Catford, Bruno E. L. Cerabolini, Arildo S. Dias, Andrés González-Melo, Peter Hietz, Christopher H. Lusk, Akira S. Mori, Ülo Niinemets, Valério D. Pillar, Bruno X. Pinho, Julieta A. Rosell, Frank M. Schurr, Serge N. Sheremetev, Ana Carolina da Silva, Ênio Sosinski, Peter M. van Bodegom, Evan Weiher, Gerhard Bönisch, Jens Kattge, Thomas W. Crowther, Department of Biology [ETH Zürich] (D-BIOL), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Estonian University of Life Sciences (EMU), Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Universidade Federal de Pernambuco [Recife] (UFPE), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, DANIEL S. MAYNARD, LALASIA BIALIC-MURPHY, CONSTANTIN M. ZOHNER, COLIN AVERILL, JOHAN VAN DEN HOOGEN, HAOZHI MA, LIDONG MO, GABRIEL REUBEN SMITH, ALICIA T. R. ACOSTA, ISABELLE AUBIN, ERIKA BERENGUER, COLINE C. F. BOONMAN, JANE A. CATFORD, BRUNO E. L. CERABOLINI, ARILDO S. DIAS, Goethe University, ANDRÉS GONZÁLEZ-MELO, PETER HIETZ, CHRISTOPHER H. LUSK, AKIRA S. MORI, ÜLO NIINEMETS, VALÉRIO D. PILLAR, BRUNO X. PINHO, JULIETA A. ROSELL, FRANK M. SCHURR, SERGE N. SHEREMETEV, ANA CAROLINA DA SILVA, ENIO EGON SOSINSKI JUNIOR, CPACT, PETER M. VAN BODEGOM, EVAN WEIHER, GERHARD BÖNISCH, JENS KATTGE, THOMAS W. CROWTHER., Maynard, Daniel S, Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia, Zohner, Constantin M, Averill, Colin, van den Hoogen, Johan, Ma, Haozhi, Mo, Lidong, Smith, Gabriel Reuben, Acosta, A. T. R., Aubin, Isabelle, Berenguer, Erika, Boonman, Coline C F, Catford, Jane A, Cerabolini, Bruno E L, Dias, Arildo S, González-Melo, André, Hietz, Peter, Lusk, Christopher H, Mori, Akira S, Niinemets, Ülo, Pillar, Valério D, Pinho, Bruno X, Rosell, Julieta A, Schurr, Frank M, Sheremetev, Serge N, da Silva, Ana Carolina, Sosinski, Ênio, van Bodegom, Peter M, Weiher, Evan, Bönisch, Gerhard, Kattge, Jen, and Crowther, Thomas W

Subjects
Multidisciplinary, Ecology, Ecophysiology, Biodiversidade, General Physics and Astronomy, Aquatic Ecology, Floresta, General Chemistry, Árvore, Biodiversity, Forests, [SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, [SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, Plant Roots, Wood, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Trees, Plant Leaves, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Biogeography, Seeds, Plant Bark, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract

Due to massive energetic investments in woody support structures, trees are subject to unique physiological, mechanical, and ecological pressures not experienced by herbaceous plants. Despite a wealth of studies exploring trait relationships across the entire plant kingdom, the dominant traits underpinning these unique aspects of tree form and function remain unclear. Here, by considering 18 functional traits, encompassing leaf, seed, bark, wood, crown, and root characteristics, we quantify the multidimensional relationships in tree trait expression. We find that nearly half of trait variation is captured by two axes: one reflecting leaf economics, the other reflecting tree size and competition for light. Yet these orthogonal axes reveal strong environmental convergence, exhibiting correlated responses to temperature, moisture, and elevation. By subsequently exploring multidimensional trait relationships, we show that the full dimensionality of trait space is captured by eight distinct clusters, each reflecting a unique aspect of tree form and function. Collectively, this work identifies a core set of traits needed to quantify global patterns in functional biodiversity, and it contributes to our fundamental understanding of the functioning of forests worldwide.Understanding patterns in woody plant trait relationships and trade-offs is challenging. Here, by applying machine learning and data imputation methods to a global database of georeferenced trait measurements, the authors unravel key relationships in tree functional traits at the global scale.

Published
2022

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