1. Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity
- Author
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Maaike C. Swets, Steven Kerr, James Scott-Brown, Adam B. Brown, Rishi Gupta, Jonathan E. Millar, Enti Spata, Fiona McCurrach, Andrew D. Bretherick, Annemarie Docherty, David Harrison, Kathy Rowan, Neil Young, ISARIC4C Investigators, Geert H. Groeneveld, Jake Dunning, Jonathan S. Nguyen-Van-Tam, Peter Openshaw, Peter W. Horby, Ewen Harrison, Natalie Staplin, Malcolm G. Semple, Nazir Lone, and J. Kenneth Baillie
- Subjects
Science - Abstract
Abstract Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the $$S/F$$ S / F ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, $$S/F$$ S / F ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high $${S}_{p}{O}_{2}$$ S p O 2 values. We found that the correlation of $$S/F$$ S / F with the reference standard ( $${P}_{a}{O}_{2}$$ P a O 2 / $${F}_{I}{O}_{2}$$ F I O 2 ratio) improves substantially when excluding $${S}_{p}{O}_{2} > 0.94$$ S p O 2 > 0.94 and refer to this measure as $$S/{F}_{94}$$ S / F 94 . Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that $$S/{F}_{94}$$ S / F 94 is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using $$S/{F}_{94}$$ S / F 94 . We demonstrate that $$S/{F}_{94}$$ S / F 94 is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.
- Published
- 2023
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