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A panel of 24 international experts met in July 2022 to discuss challenges associated with pertussis detection, monitoring, and vaccination in adults; conclusions from this meeting are presented. There has been a shift in the epidemiology of pertussis toward older children and adults. This shift has been attributed to the waning of infection- or vaccine-induced immunity, newer detection techniques causing detection bias, and possibly the replacement of whole-cell pertussis with acellular vaccines in high-income countries, which may lead to immunity waning more quickly. The burden of adult pertussis is still likely under-ascertained due to widespread under-recognition by healthcare professionals (HCPs), under-diagnosis, and under-reporting in this age group. Non-standardized testing guidance and varied case definitions have contributed to under-reporting. Key barriers to HCP engagement with the tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) vaccine include low awareness, lack of time/funding, and lack of motivation due to low prioritization of Tdap.

Cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in more than 200 countries. Thousands of health workers have been infected, and outbreaks have occurred in hospitals, aged care facilities, and prisons. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued guidelines for contact and droplet precautions for healthcare workers caring for suspected COVID-19 patients, whereas the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has initially recommended airborne precautions. The 1- to 2-meter (≈3-6 feet) rule of spatial separation is central to droplet precautions and assumes that large droplets do not travel further than 2 meters (≈6 feet). We aimed to review the evidence for horizontal distance traveled by droplets and the guidelines issued by the WHO, CDC, and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on respiratory protection for COVID-19. We found that the evidence base for current guidelines is sparse, and the available data do not support the 1- to 2-meter (≈3-6 feet) rule of spatial separation. Of 10 studies on horizontal droplet distance, 8 showed droplets travel more than 2 meters (≈6 feet), in some cases up to 8 meters (≈26 feet). Several studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) support aerosol transmission, and 1 study documented virus at a distance of 4 meters (≈13 feet) from the patient. Moreover, evidence suggests that infections cannot neatly be separated into the dichotomy of droplet versus airborne transmission routes. Available studies also show that SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in the air, and remain viable 3 hours after aerosolization. The weight of combined evidence supports airborne precautions for the occupational health and safety of health workers treating patients with COVID-19.

Respiratory infections transmit through droplets and aerosols generated by the infected individual during respiratory emissions. It is essential to study the flow dynamics of these emissions to develop strategies for mitigating the risk of infection. In particular, the dynamics of droplets expelled during violent exhalations such as sneezing is crucial, but has received little attention to date. Here, for the first time, we present the results of droplet dynamics of 35 sneezes, obtained from four volunteers, using particle tracking velocimetry experiments. Our results reveal a mean droplet velocity of 2-5.4 m/s across the different subjects. These values are significantly lower than what is usually assumed in the studies simulating or replicating sneezes. Furthermore, the large variation in droplet speeds, flow direction, spread angle, and head movement is also quantified. These findings will enable the refinement of models and simulations of sneezes toward improving infection control guidelines.

Cloth masks can be an alternative to medical masks during pandemics. Recent studies have examined the performance of fabrics under various conditions; however, the performance against violent respiratory events such as human sneezes is yet to be explored. Accordingly, we present a comprehensive experimental study using sneezes by a healthy adult and a tailored image-based flow measurement diagnostic system evaluating all dimensions of protection of commonly available fabrics and their layered combinations: the respiratory droplet blocking efficiency, water resistance, and breathing resistance. Our results reveal that a well-designed cloth mask can outperform a three-layered surgical mask for such violent respiratory events. Specifically, increasing the number of layers significantly increases the droplet blocking efficiency, on average by ∼20 times per additional fabric layer. A minimum of three layers is necessary to resemble the droplet blocking performance of surgical masks, and a combination of cotton/linen (hydrophilic inner layer)-blends (middle layer)-polyester/nylon (hydrophobic outer layer) exhibited the best performance among overall indicators tested. In an optimum three-layered design, the average thread count should be greater than 200, and the porosity should be less than 2%. Furthermore, machine washing at 60 °C did not significantly impact the performance of cloth masks. These findings inform the design of high-performing homemade cloth masks.

Introduction: There are no publicly available national data on healthcare worker infections in Australia. It has been documented in many countries that healthcare workers (HCW) are at increased occupational risk of COVID-19. We aimed to estimate the burden of COVID-19 on Australia HCW and the health system by obtaining and organizing data on HCW infections, analyzing national HCW cases in regards to occupational risk and analyzing healthcare outbreak. Methods: We searched government reports and websites and media reports to create a comprehensive line listing of Australian HCW infections and nosocomial outbreaks between January 25th and July 8th, 2020. A line list of HCW related COVID-19 reported cases was created and enhanced by matching data extracted from media reports of healthcare related COVID-19 relevant outbreaks and reports, using matching criteria. Rates of infections and odds ratios (ORs) for HCW were calculated per state, by comparing overall cases to HCW cases. To investigate the sources of infection amongst HCW, transmission data were collated and graphed to show distribution of sources. Results: We identified 36 hospital outbreaks or HCW infection reports between January 25th and July 8th, 2020. According to our estimates, at least 536 HCW in Australia had been infected with COVID-19, comprising 6.03% of all reported infections. The rate of HCW infection was 90/100000 and of community infection 34/100,000. HCW were 2.69 times more likely to contract COVID-19 (95% CI 2.48 to 2.93; P < 0.001). The timing of hospital outbreaks did not always correspond to community peaks. Where data were available, a total of 131 HCW across 21 outbreaks led to 1656 HCW being furloughed for quarantine. In one outbreak, one hospital was closed and 1200 HCW quarantined. Conclusion: The study shows that HCW were at nearly 3 times the risk of infection. Of concern, this nearly tripling of risk occurred during a period of low community prevalence suggesting failures at multipl

Choral singing has become a major risk during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic due to high infection rates. Our visualization and velocimetry results reveal that the majority of droplets expelled during singing follow the ambient airflow pattern. These results point toward the possibility of COVID-19 spread by small airborne droplets during singing.

The health care community has been accused of not taking the nosocomial spread of respiratory virus infection to health care workers and patients seriously enough. The evidence from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated that our current approach to controlling respiratory viruses is not sufficient. The overrepresentation of health care workers among those acquiring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in workplace settings is a clear testament to this with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.40 (95% CI, 3.37–3.43).1 This issue needs to be critically examined in light of the emerging evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective This study comprehensively estimated the excess cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to influenza in an older (age ≥65 years) population. Design Ecological study. Setting Aggregated data from administrative systems on CVD mortality, influenza surveillance and meteorological data in Beijing, China. Main outcome measure Excess overall CVD, and separately for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke mortality attributable to influenza, adjusting for influenza activity, time trend, seasonality and ambient temperature. Results CVD (risk ratio (RR) 1.02, 95% CI 1.01, 1.02), IHD (RR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01, 1.02), ischaemic stroke (RR=1.03, 95% CI 1.02, 1.04), but not haemorrhagic stroke (RR=1.00, 95% CI 0.99, 1.01) mortality, were significantly associated with every 10% increase in influenza activity. An increase in circulating A(H1N1)09pdm, A(H3N2) and B type virus were all significantly associated with CVD and ischaemic stroke mortality, but only A(H3N2) and B type virus with IHD mortality. The strongest increase in disease mortality was in the same week as the increase in influenza activity. Annual excess CVD mortality rate attributable to influenza ranged from 54 to 96 per 100 000 population. The 3%-6% CVD mortality attributable to influenza activity was related to an annual excess of 916-1640 CVD deaths in Beijing, China. Conclusions Influenza activity has moderate to strong associations with CVD, IHD and ischaemic stroke mortality in older adults in China. Promoting influenza vaccination could have major health benefit in this population. Background Influenza may trigger serious CVD events. An estimation of excess CVD mortality attributable to influenza has particular relevance in China where vaccination is low and CVD burden is high. Methods This study analysed data at the population level (age ≥65 years) using linked aggregated data from administrative systems on CVD mortality, influenza surveillance and meteorologica

Face masks and respirators are the most widely used intervention measures for respiratory protection. In the wake of COVID-19, in response to shortages and lack of availability of surgical masks and respirators, the use of cloth masks has become a research focus. Various fabrics have been promoted with little evidence-based foundation and without guidelines on design principles for optimal performance. In these circumstances, it is essential to understand the properties, key performance factors, filter mechanisms and evidence on cloth masks materials. The general community might also need to decontaminate and reuse disposable, single-use devices as a last resort. We present an overview of the filter materials, filter mechanisms and effectiveness, key performance factors, and hydrophobicity of the common disposable masks, as well as cloth masks. We also reviewed decontamination methods for disposable respiratory devices. As an alternative to surgical masks and respirators, we recommend a cloth mask made of at least three layers (300-350 threads per inch) and adding a nylon stocking layer over the mask for a better fit. Water-resistant fabrics (polyesters/nylon), blends of fabrics and water-absorbing fabrics (cotton) should be in the outside layer, middle layer/layers and inside layer, respectively. The information outlined here will help people to navigate their choices if facing shortages of appropriate respiratory protection during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Respiratory activities such as sneezing generate pathogen laden droplets that can deposit in the respiratory tract of a susceptible host to initiate infection. The extent of spread of these droplets determines the safe distance between a patient and health care worker. Here, we have presented a method to visualize the droplets expelled by a sneeze using light-sheet illumination. This method of visualization provides images that clearly resolve the velocities of droplets with minimal overlapping trajectories, towards understanding their flow dynamics. Furthermore, we present the image processing techniques required to perform accurate Particle Tracking Velocimetry to understand the motion of expelled droplets. Flow fields are presented from applying this methodology over multiple sneezes which reveal that less than 1% of droplets expelled travel at velocities greater than 10 m/s and almost 80% of droplets travel at velocities less than 5 m/s. Furthermore, we observe that some droplets are generated by ligament breakup outside the mouth and some are generated within the respiratory tract.

BACKGROUND: Over the last two decades, Australia has experienced four severe influenza seasons caused by a predominance of influenza A (A/H3N2): 2003, 2007, 2012, and 2017. METHODS: We compared the epidemiology, genetics, and transmission dynamics of severe A/H3N2 seasons in Australia from 2003 to 2017. RESULTS: Since 2003, the proportion of notifications in 0-4 years old has decreased, while it has increased in the age group >80 years old (P < .001). The genetic diversity of circulating influenza A/H3N2 viruses has also increased over time with the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms significantly (P < .05) increasing. We also identified five residue positions within or near the receptor binding site of HA (144, 145, 159, 189, and 225) undergoing frequent mutations that are likely involved in significant antigenic drift and possibly severity. The Australian state of Victoria was identified as a frequent location for transmission either to or from other states and territories over the study years. The states of New South Wales and Queensland were also frequently implicated as locations of transmission to other states and territories but less so over the years. This indicates a stable but also changing dynamic of A/H3N2 circulation in Australia. CONCLUSION: These results have important implications for future influenza surveillance and control policy in the country. Reasons for the change in age-specific infection and increased genetic diversity of A/H3N2 viruses in recent years should be explored.

This study compared the phylogeography of MERS-CoV between hospital outbreak-associated cases and sporadic cases in Saudi Arabia. We collected complete genome sequences from human samples in Saudi Arabia and data on the multiple risk factors of human MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia reported from 2012 to 2018. By matching each sequence to human cases, we identified isolates as hospital outbreak-associated cases or sporadic cases. We used Bayesian phylogenetic methods including temporal, discrete trait analysis and phylogeography to uncover transmission routes of MERS-CoV isolates between hospital outbreaks and sporadic cases. Of the 120 sequences collected between 19 June 2012 and 23 January 2017, there were 64 isolates from hospital outbreak-associated cases and 56 from sporadic cases. Overall, MERS-CoV is fast evolving at 7.43 × 10-4 substitutions per site per year. Isolates from hospital outbreaks showed unusually fast evolutionary speed in a shorter time-frame than sporadic cases. Multiple introductions of different MERS-CoV strains occurred in three separate hospital outbreaks. MERS-CoV appears to be mutating in humans. The impact of mutations on viruses transmissibility in humans is unknown.

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The clinical severity and observed case fatality ratio of influenza A/H1N1pdm09 in India, particularly in 2015 and 2017 far exceeds current global estimates. Reasons for these frequent and severe epidemic waves remain unclear. We used Bayesian phylodynamic methods to uncover possible genetic explanations for this, while also identifying the transmission dynamics of A/H1N1pdm09 between 2009 and 2017 to inform future public health interventions. We reveal a disproportionate selection at haemagglutinin residue positions associated with increased morbidity and mortality in India such as position 222 and clade 6B characteristic residues, relative to equivalent isolates circulating globally. We also identify for the first time, increased selection at position 186 as potentially explaining the severity of recent A/H1N1pdm09 epidemics in India. We reveal national routes of A/H1N1pdm09 transmission, identifying Maharashtra as the most important state for the spread throughout India, while quantifying climactic, ecological, and transport factors as drivers of within-country transmission. Together these results have important implications for future A/H1N1pdm09 surveillance and control within India, but also for epidemic and pandemic risk prediction around the world.

This article focuses on monitor plans aimed at the early detection of the increase in the frequency of events. The literature recommends either monitoring the time between events (TBE) if events are rare or counting the number of events per unit non-overlapping time intervals otherwise. Some authors advocate using the Bernoulli model for rare events, applying presence or absence of events within non-overlapping and exhaustive time intervals. This Bernoulli model does improve the real-time monitoring assessment of these events compared to counting events over a larger interval, making them less rare. However this approach became inefficient if more than one event starts occurring within the intervals. Monitoring TBE is the real-time option for outbreak detection, because outbreak information is accumulated when an event occurs. This is preferred to waiting for the end of a period to count events. If the TBE reduces significantly, then the incidence of these events increases significantly. This article explores this TBE option relative to using the monitoring of counts when the TBEs are either Exponentially, Gamma or Weibull distributed for moderately low count scenarios. The article will discuss and compare the approaches of using an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistic for the TBEs to the EWMA of counts. Several robust options will be considered when the future change in event frequency is unknown. Our goal is to have a robust monitoring plan which is able to efficiently detect many different levels of shifts. These robust plans are compared to the more traditional event monitoring plans for both small and large changes in the event frequency.

Hepatitis A incidence has declined in most countries through a combination of prevention measures, augmented through the use of a highly effective vaccine. In Australia, the proportion of the population susceptible to hepatitis A infection has declined over time due to high rates of opportunistic vaccination as well as the sustained inflow of seropositive immigrants from high-endemicity countries. These factors have contributed to a rapid decline in incidence. An age-structured hepatitis A transmission model incorporating demographic changes was fitted to seroprevalence and disease notification data and used to project incidence trends and transmission potential for hepatitis A in the general population. Robustness of findings was assessed through worst-case scenarios regarding vaccine uptake, migration and the duration of immunity. The decline in age-specific seroprevalence until the introduction of hepatitis A vaccine in 1994 was well explained through a declining basic reproduction number (R 0 ) that remained >1. Accounting for existing immunity, we estimated that the effective reproduction number (R eff ) <1 in the general population of Australia since the early 1990s, declining more rapidly after the introduction of the hepatitis A vaccine. Future projections under a variety of scenarios support R eff remaining <1 with continued low incidence in the general population. In conclusion, our results suggest that sustained endemic transmission in the general Australian population is no longer possible although risks of sporadic outbreaks remain. This suggests potential for local elimination of hepatitis A infection in Australia, provided that elimination criteria can be defined and satisfied in risk groups. The methodology used here to investigate elimination potential can easily be replicated in settings such as in the USA where sequential seroprevalence studies are supported by routine notification data.

Planning for a re-emergent epidemic of smallpox requires surge capacity of space, resources and personnel within health systems. There are many uncertainties in such a scenario, including likelihood and size of an attack, speed of response and health system capacity. We used a model for smallpox transmission to determine requirements for hospital beds, contact tracing and health workers (HCWs) in Sydney, Australia, during a modelled epidemic of smallpox. Sensitivity analysis was done on attack size, speed of response and proportion of case isolation and contact tracing. We estimated 100638 clinical HCWs and 14595 public hospital beds in Sydney. Rapid response, case isolation and contact tracing are influential on epidemic size, with case isolation more influential than contact tracing. With 95% of cases isolated, outbreak control can be achieved within 100 days even with only 50% of contacts traced. However, if case isolation and contact tracing both fall to 50%, epidemic control is lost. With a smaller initial attack and a response commencing 20 days after the attack, health system impacts are modest. The requirement for hospital beds will vary from up to 4% to 100% of all available beds in best and worst case scenarios. If the response is delayed, or if the attack infects 10000 people, all available beds will be exceeded within 40 days, with corresponding surge requirements for clinical health care workers (HCWs). We estimated there are 330 public health workers in Sydney with up to 940,350 contacts to be traced. At least 3 million respirators will be needed for the first 100 days. To ensure adequate health system capacity, rapid response, high rates of case isolation, excellent contact tracing and vaccination, and protection of HCWs should be a priority. Surge capacity must be planned. Failures in any of these could cause health system failure, with inadequate beds, quarantine spaces, personnel, PPE and inability to manage other acute health conditions.

Objectives The aim of this survey was to investigate parental vaccination attitudes and responses to vaccine-related media messages from political and medical leaders. Design This was a cross-sectional study using a semiquantitative questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, X 2 tests and logistic regression. Setting Data were collected from a web-based questionnaire distributed in Australia by a market research company in May of 2017. Participants 411 participants with at least one child under 5 were included in this study. The sample was designed to be representative of Australia in terms of gender and state of residence. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome measures were parental attitudes towards childhood immunisation before and after viewing vaccine-related messages from political and medical leaders, including Donald Trump (USA), Pauline Hanson (Australia) and Michael Gannon (Australia). Parents were classified as having susceptible' (not fixed) or fixed' (positive or negative) views towards vaccination based on a series of questions. Results Parents with fixed vaccination views constituted 23.8% (n=98) of the total sample; 21.7% (n=89) were pro-vaccination and 2.2% (n=9) were anti-vaccination. The remaining 76.2% of participants were classified as having susceptible views towards vaccination. Susceptible parents were more likely to report a change in their willingness to vaccinate after watching vaccine-related messages compared with fixed-view parents, regardless of whether the messaging was positive or negative (Trump OR 2.54, 95% CI (1.29 to 5.00); Hanson OR 2.64, 95% CI (1.26 to 5.52); Gannon OR 2.64, 95% CI (1.26 to 5.52)). Susceptible parents were more likely than fixed-view parents to report increased vaccine hesitancy after viewing negative vaccine messages (Trump OR 2.14, 95% CI (1.11 to 4.14), Hanson OR 2.34, 95% CI (1.21 to 4.50)). Conclusions The findings suggest that most parents including the vaccinati

Background: It appears inter-seasonal influenza notifications have been increasing in summer months in Australia. This study aims to determine changes in inter-seasonal influenza activity in Australia over time. Methods: Routine influenza surveillance data and hospitalisations data were analysed to study the epidemiology of inter-seasonal influenza and to examine the impact of inter-seasonal influenza on morbidity in Australia at a national level. To adjust for changes in testing over time, we calculated a ratio of summer-to-winter notifications for each year in the study. A P-value of <0.05 was used for statistical significance. Results: Nationally, 18 933 notifications were reported during summer months from December to February 2005-2016. There have been increasing summer notifications over time, which corresponded to similarly increased notifications in winter. A significant upward trend was observed for rate of notification during summer period over these years, P < 0.01. However, the ratio of summer-to-winter notifications demonstrated that while notifications have increased, the ratio has not increased markedly over the years and did not show a significant trend. No seasonal trend in rates of hospitalisation for influenza and pneumonia, respiratory and circulatory diagnosis was observed over the studied years. Conclusion: This study provides a clearer understanding of the epidemiology and burden of inter-seasonal influenza and trends over time in Australia. The ratio of summer-to-winter notifications remains relatively constant and is supported by reasonably constant hospitalisation rates over the years.

Two distinct phenomena of airborne transmission of variola virus (smallpox) were described in the pre-eradication era-direct respiratory transmission, and a unique phenomenon of transmission over greater distances, referred to as "aerial convection". We conducted an analysis of data obtained from a systematic review following the PRISMA criteria, on the long-distance transmission of smallpox. Of 8179 studies screened, 22 studies of 17 outbreaks were identified-12 had conclusive evidence of aerial convection and five had partially conclusive evidence. Aerial convection was first documented in 1881 in England, when smallpox incidence had waned substantially following mass vaccination, making unusual transmissions noticeable. National policy at the time stipulated spatial separation of smallpox hospitals from other buildings and communities. The evidence supports the transmission of smallpox through aerial convection at distances ranging from 0.5 to 1 mile, and one instance of 15 km related to bioweapons testing. Other explanations are also possible, such as missed chains of transmission, fomites or secondary aerosolization from contaminated material such as bedding. The window of observation of aerial convection was within the 100 years prior to eradication. Aerial convection appears unique to the variola virus and is not considered in current hospital infection control protocols. Understanding potential aerial convection of variola should be an important consideration in planning for smallpox treatment facilities and protecting potential contacts and surrounding communities.

BACKGROUND: Despite recommendations that older adults receive acellular pertussis vaccines, data on direct effectiveness in adults aged over 50 years are sparse. METHODS: Case-control study nested within an adult cohort. Cases were identified from linked pertussis notifications and each matched to three controls on age, sex and cohort recruitment date. Cases and controls were invited to complete a questionnaire, with verification of vaccination status by their primary care provider. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated by conditional logistic regression, with adjustment for reported contact with children and area of residence. RESULTS: Of 1112 notified cases in the cohort, we had complete data for 333 cases and 506 controls. Among 172 PCR-diagnosed cases (mean age 61 years), 11.2% versus 19.5% of controls, had provider-verified pertussis vaccination, on average 3.2 years earlier. Adjusted VE against PCR-diagnosed pertussis was 52% (95%CI 15 to 73%); non-significantly higher if vaccinated within 2 years (63%, -5 to 87%). Adjusted VE was similar in adults born before 1950, presumed primed by natural infection (51%; -8% to 77%) versus those born 1950 or later who may have received whole-cell pertussis vaccine (53%; -11% to 80%); p-heterogeneity=0.9. Among 156 cases identified by single-point serology, adjusted VE was -55% (-177% to 13%). CONCLUSION: We found modest protection against PCR-confirmed pertussis among older adults (mean age 61 years, range 46-81) within five years after acellular vaccine. The most likely explanation for the markedly divergent VE estimate from cases identified by single titre serology is misclassification arising from limited diagnostic specificity in our setting.

© 2019 The Author(s). Background: Medical masks are commonly used in health care settings to protect healthcare workers (HCWs) from respiratory and other infections. Airborne respiratory pathogens may settle on the surface of used masks layers, resulting in contamination. The main aim of this study was to study the presence of viruses on the surface of medical masks. Methods: Two pilot studies in laboratory and clinical settings were carried out to determine the areas of masks likely to contain maximum viral particles. A laboratory study using a mannequin and fluorescent spray showed maximum particles concentrated on upper right, middle and left sections of the medical masks. These findings were confirmed through a small clinical study. The main study was then conducted in high-risk wards of three selected hospitals in Beijing China. Participants (n = 148) were asked to wear medical masks for a shift (6-8 h) or as long as they could tolerate. Used samples of medical masks were tested for presence of respiratory viruses in upper sections of the medical masks, in line with the pilot studies. Results: Overall virus positivity rate was 10.1% (15/148). Commonly isolated viruses from masks samples were adenovirus (n = 7), bocavirus (n = 2), respiratory syncytial virus (n = 2) and influenza virus (n = 2). Virus positivity was significantly higher in masks samples worn for > 6 h (14.1%, 14/99 versus 1.2%, 1/49, OR 7.9, 95% CI 1.01-61.99) and in samples used by participants who examined > 25 patients per day (16.9%, 12/71 versus 3.9%, 3/77, OR 5.02, 95% CI 1.35-18.60). Most of the participants (83.8%, 124/148) reported at least one problem associated with mask use. Commonly reported problems were pressure on face (16.9%, 25/148), breathing difficulty (12.2%, 18/148), discomfort (9.5% 14/148), trouble communicating with the patient (7.4%, 11/148) and headache (6.1%, 9/148). Conclusion: Respiratory pathogens on the outer surface of the used medical masks may result in self-con

Variola virus is at risk of re-emergence either through accidental release, bioterrorism, or synthetic biology. The use of phylogenetics and phylogeography to support epidemic field response is expected to grow as sequencing technology becomes miniaturized, cheap, and ubiquitous. In this study, we aimed to explore the use of common VARV diagnostic targets hemagglutinin (HA), cytokine response modifier B (CrmB), and A-type inclusion protein (ATI) for phylogenetic characterization as well as the representativeness of modelling strategies in phylogeography to support epidemic response should smallpox re-emerge. We used Bayesian discrete-trait phylogeography using the most complete data set currently available of whole genome (n = 51) and partially sequenced (n = 20) VARV isolates. We show that multilocus models combining HA, ATI, and CrmB genes may represent a useful heuristic to differentiate between VARV Major and subclades of VARV Minor which have been associated with variable case-fatality rates. Where whole genome sequencing is unavailable, phylogeography models of HA, ATI, and CrmB may provide preliminary but uncertain estimates of transmission, while supplementing whole genome models with additional isolates sequenced only for HA can improve sample representativeness, maintaining similar support for transmission relative to whole genome models. We have also provided empirical evidence delineating historic international VARV transmission using phylogeography. Due to the persistent threat of re-emergence, our results provide important research for smallpox epidemic preparedness in the posteradication era as recommended by the World Health Organisation.

Objective: To understand the global outbreak surveillance needs of stakeholders involved in epidemic response in selected countries and areas in the Asia-Pacific region to inform development of an epidemic observatory, Epi-watch. Methods: We designed an online, semi-structured stakeholder questionnaire to collect information on global outbreak surveillance sources and limitations from participants who use epidemic intelligence and outbreak alert services in their work in government and nongovernment organizations in the Asia-Pacific region. Results: All respondents agreed that it was important to remain up to date with global outbreaks. The main reason cited for following global outbreak news was as an early warning for serious epidemics. Mainstream media and specialist Internet sources such as the World Health Organization (n = 54/91; 59%), the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED)-mail (n = 45/91; 49%) and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (n = 31/91; 34%) were the most common sources for global outbreak news; rapid intelligence services such as HealthMap were less common (n = 9/91; 10%). Only 51% (n = 46/91) of respondents thought that their sources of outbreak news were timely and sufficient for their needs. Conclusion: For those who work in epidemic response, epidemic intelligence is important and widely used. Stakeholders are less aware of and less frequently use rapid sources such as HealthMap and rely more on validated but less timely traditional sources of disease surveillance. Users identified a need for more timely and reliable epidemic intelligence.

We analyzed surveillance data for 2 sentinel hospitals to estimate the influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infection hospitalization rate in Beijing, China. The rate was 39 and 37 per 100,000 persons during the 2014–15 and 2015–16 influenza seasons, respectively. Rates were highest for children <5 years of age.

Avian influenza H5N1 subtype has caused a global public health concern due to its high pathogenicity in poultry and high case fatality rates in humans. The recently emerged H7N9 is a growing pandemic risk due to its sustained high rates of human infections, and recently acquired high pathogenicity in poultry. Here, we used Bayesian phylogeography on 265 H5N1 and 371 H7N9 haemagglutinin sequences isolated from humans, animals and the environment, to identify and compare migration patterns and factors predictive of H5N1 and H7N9 diffusion rates in China. H7N9 diffusion dynamics and predictor contributions differ from H5N1. Key determinants of spatial diffusion included: proximity between locations (for H5N1 and H7N9), and lower rural population densities (H5N1 only). For H7N9, additional predictors included low avian influenza vaccination rates, low percentage of nature reserves and high humidity levels. For both H5N1 and H7N9, we found viral migration rates from Guangdong to Guangxi and Guangdong to Hunan were highly supported transmission routes (Bayes Factor > 30). We show fundamental differences in wide-scale transmission dynamics between H5N1 and H7N9. Importantly, this indicates that avian influenza initiatives designed to control H5N1 may not be sufficient for controlling the H7N9 epidemic. We suggest control and prevention activities to specifically target poultry transportation networks between Central, Pan-Pearl River Delta and South-West regions.

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of pneumonia and secondary bacterial infections during the pandemic of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Methods: A systematic review was conducted to identify relevant literature in which clinical outcomes of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection were described. Published studies (between 01/01/2009 and 05/07/2012) describing cases of fatal or hospitalised A(H1N1)pdm09 and including data on bacterial testing or co-infection. Results: Seventy five studies met the inclusion criteria. Fatal cases with autopsy specimen testing were reported in 11 studies, in which any co-infection was identified in 23% of cases (Streptococcus pneumoniae 29%). Eleven studies reported bacterial co-infection among hospitalised cases of A(H1N1)2009pdm with confirmed pneumonia, with a mean of 19% positive for bacteria (Streptococcus pneumoniae 54%). Of 16 studies of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, bacterial co-infection identified in a mean of 19% of cases (Streptococcus pneumoniae 26%). The mean prevalence of bacterial co-infection was 12% in studies of hospitalised patients not requiring ICU (Streptococcus pneumoniae 33%) and 16% in studies of paediatric patients hospitalised in general or pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) wards (Streptococcus pneumoniae 16%). Conclusion: We found that few studies of the 2009 influenza pandemic reported on bacterial complications and testing. Of studies which did report on this, secondary bacterial infection was identified in almost one in four patients, with Streptococcus pneumoniae the most common bacteria identified. Bacterial complications were associated with serious outcomes such as death and admission to intensive care. Prevention and treatment of bacterial secondary infection should be an integral part of pandemic planning, and improved uptake of routine pneumococcal vaccination in adults with an indication may reduce the impact of a pandemic.

Background: Rotavirus is a leading cause of severe diarrheal disease, and one of the common causes of death in children aged under five years old. The dominant epidemic strains may change in different years in the same area. In order to provide evidence for rotavirus epidemic control and inform vaccine development, we analyzed epidemiological patterns and genetic characteristics of rotavirus in Beijing during 2011-2016. Methods: Stool specimens of outpatient children under five years old were collected from three children's hospitals on a weekly basis. Group A rotavirus antigens were detected using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit. The partial VP4 genes and VP7 genes of rotavirus were both amplified and sequenced. Genotyping and phylogenetic analyses were performed. Logistic regression and Chi-square tests were performed to determine differences across age groups, districts and years in rotavirus prevalence and genotype distribution. Results: A total of 3668 stool specimens from children with acute diarrhea identified through hospital-based surveillance were collected from 2011 to 2016 in Beijing. A total of 762 (20.8%) specimens tested positive for rotavirus. The rotavirus-positive rate was highest among the 1-2 years old age group (29.0%, 310/1070). November, December and January were the highest rotavirus-positive rate months each year. G9 was the most common G genotype (64.4%, 461/716), and P [8] was the most common P genotype (87.0%, 623/716) among the 716 rotavirus-positive specimens. G9P [8], G3P [8] and G2P [4] were the most common strains. The rotavirus-positive rates of samples in 2012 and 2013 were higher than that in 2011, and the dominant genotype changed from G3P [8] to G9P [8] in 2012 and 2013. VP7 gene sequences of G9 strains in this study clustered into two main lineages. Most of the G9 strains exhibited the highest nucleotide similarity (99.1%~ 100.0%) to the strain found in Japan (MI1128). VP4 gene sequences of P [8] strains were almo

Background: Globally eradicated in 1980, smallpox is listed as a category A bioterrorism agent. If smallpox were to re-emerge, it may be due to an act of bioterrorism or a laboratory accident, and the impact is likely to be severe. Preparedness against smallpox is subject to more uncertainty than other infectious diseases because it is eradicated, there is uncertainty about population immunity, and the current global health workforce has no practical experience or living memory of smallpox. In the event of re-emergence of smallpox, mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in improving the evidence base to inform preparedness, mitigation, and response activities. However, the predictions of mathematical models about outbreak magnitude and impact depend critically on the assumptions and disease parameters used. We aimed to identify modeling studies that would be applicable to re-emerging smallpox and to evaluate consistency and the certainty of the evidence published about the key parameters used. Methods: We conducted a systematic review using PRISMA criteria, of assumptions used in modeling studies on duration of latent, prodromal, and infectious period, as well as the choice of the basic reproduction number (R0) for re-emerging smallpox. We performed a literature search using PubMED, Scopus, Web of Science, and EMBASE and included peer-reviewed articles that focused on smallpox models, stated at least three of the aforementioned parameters and published in English. Findings: A total of 42 studies were selected for inclusion. There was general agreement on the duration of latent and prodromal periods, being 11-12 d (88%) and 3 d (59%), respectively. The duration of the infectious period varied from 4 to 20 d. Most models assumed 16 d (19%), 12 d (16.7%), and 8.6 d (12%) of infectiousness. In 25/34 studies, R0 ranged between 3 and 5, generally lower than the R0 calculated from past outbreaks. Discussion: Models of smallpox re-emergence also tend to use the same lim

Vaccination is a highly effective public health strategy that provides protection to both individuals and communities from a range of infectious diseases. Governments monitor vaccination rates carefully, as widespread use of a vaccine within a population is required to extend protection to the general population through “herd immunity”, which is important for protecting infants who are not yet fully vaccinated and others who are unable to undergo vaccination for medical or other reasons. Australia is unique in employing financial incentives to increase vaccination uptake, mainly in the form of various childcare payments and tax benefits linked to timely, age-appropriate vaccination. Despite relatively high compliance with the childhood vaccination schedule, however, the Australian Government has determined that rates should be higher, and has recently introduced policy that includes involved removing certain tax and childcare benefits for non-vaccinators and formally disallowing conscientious objection to vaccination (“No Jab No Pay”). In addition, it has raised the possibility of banning unvaccinated children from childcare centres (“No Jab No Play”). This article examines the impact of coercive approaches to childhood vaccination and raises the question of the ethical justification of health policy initiatives based on coercion. We consider the current evidence regarding childhood vaccination in Australia, the small but real risks associated with vaccination, the ethical requirement for consent for medical procedures and the potential social harms of targeting non-vaccinators. We conclude that the evidence does not support a move to an increasingly mandatory approach that could only be delivered through paternalistic, coercive clinical practices.

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response.

We built a SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model of smallpox transmission for New York, New York, USA, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, that accounted for age-specific population immunosuppression and residual vaccine immunity and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the effect these parameters might have on smallpox reemergence. At least 19% of New York’s and 17% of Sydney’s population are immunosuppressed. The highest smallpox infection rates were in persons 0-19 years of age, but the highest death rates were in those >45 years of age. Because of the low level of residual vaccine immunity, immunosuppression was more influential than vaccination on death and infection rates in our model. Despite widespread smallpox vaccination until 1980 in New York, smallpox outbreak severity appeared worse in New York than in Sydney. Immunosuppression is highly prevalent and should be considered in future smallpox outbreak models because excluding this factor probably underestimates death and infection rates.

Background: The benefit of school-based influenza vaccination policy has not been fully addressed in Beijing. Objectives: To evaluate the benefit of school-based influenza vaccination policy launched in Beijing. Methods: Using existing surveillance and immunization data, we developed a dynamic transmission model to assess the impact of influenza vaccination in school-going children. The outcome was defined as the averted number of medically attended influenza illnesses and the prevented disease fraction to all children aged 5-14 years for the 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 seasons. Results: We estimated that during the three consecutive influenza seasons, the averted number of medically attended influenza illnesses among children aged 5-14 years was around 104 000 (95% CI: 101 000-106 000), 23 000 (95% CI: 22 000-23 000), and 21 000 (95% CI: 21 000-22 000), respectively. Corresponding prevented fractions to all children aged 5-14 years were 76.3%, 38.5%, and 43.9%. Conclusions: In Beijing, school-based vaccinations reduced a substantial number of medically attended influenza illnesses despite seasonal variation in the prevented fraction. This is strong supportive evidence for the continuation of school-based vaccination programs to reduce the influenza burden in this age group.

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is reported from many parts of the world, mostly linked to drinking water sources or cooling towers. We reviewed two unusual rolling outbreaks in Sydney and New York, each clustered in time and space. Data on these outbreaks were collected from public sources and compared to previous outbreaks in Australia and the US. While recurrent outbreaks of LD over time linked to an identified single source have been described, multiple unrelated outbreaks clustered in time and geography have not been previously described. We describe unusual geographic and temporal clustering of Legionella outbreaks in two cities, each of which experienced multiple different outbreaks within a small geographic area and within a short timeframe. The explanation for this temporal and spatial clustering of LD outbreaks in two cities is not clear, but climate variation and deteriorating water sanitation are two possible explanations. There is a need to critically analyse LD outbreaks and better understand changing trends to effectively prevent disease.

© 2018 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved. We investigated a yearlong varicella zoster virus outbreak in a highly susceptible young adult population at a large university in India. Outbreaks of varicella infection among adults are not well described in the literature. Infection control measures and vaccination policy for this age group and setting are needed.