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This study examined academic and social outcomes for high-risk youths in Manitoba, using longitudinal, population-based data. All children born in Manitoba in 1984-1985 who resided in Winnipeg the year they turned 18 were included in analyses (N = 11,703). High risk youths were defined as those involved with child welfare services, living in poverty, and/or having a mother who was a teen at first childbirth. Of youths with one risk factor, 41 to 57 per cent failed to complete high school, and 84 per cent of those with all three risk factors did not complete high school, compared with only 18 per cent of youths with none of the risk factors. Multiple risk factors put youths at an even greater disadvantage. Similar poor outcomes for high risk youths were observed for performance in grade 9, unemployment in early adulthood, and teen births. The findings suggest an intractable cycle of risk and disadvantage with far-reaching social and economic implications. (Contains 2 footnotes, 2 tables, and 5 figures.)

All children born in Manitoba in 1984 were tracked for 18 years to assess their grade-12 performance on a provincial examination according to a student's socio-economic status. The proportion of youths in families receiving social assistance judged to have passed their language arts exam dropped from 80 per cent to 12 per cent, depending on whether one counts only those in the cohort who took the test on time in 2002 or all youths born in 1984 who should have taken the test in 2002. Getting better data on performance and doing something about the discrepancies should become a Canadian priority. (Contains 5 tables and 3 notes.)

This paper explores the relative importance of social factors and health measures in predicting educational achievement in early and late adolescence using population-based administrative data. The sample was made up of 41,943 children born in Manitoba, Canada between 1982 and 1989 and remaining in the province until age 18. Multilevel modeling nests each individual (level 1) within a family (level 2) residing within a neighborhood (level 3). Most important in predicting adolescent achievement were a broad socioeconomic status index (and a narrower measure of household income), being on social assistance, mother's age at first birth, gender, residential mobility, the presence of ADHD/Conduct disorders, and measures of family functioning (child taken into care or offered protection services and family structure history). Family size, birth order, and newborn characteristics (birthweight, APGAR, gestational age) were statistically significant but of little importance in explaining the outcomes. Both examining regression coefficients and systematically omitting variables showed social factors (often emphasized by epidemiologists) to have markedly greater effects than the combination of health measures (often stressed by economists) in predicting achievement. However, mental health in childhood is identified as among the important predictors. Record linkage across population datasets from health, education, and family services ministries allowed: tracking health and educational attainment at different times in a child's life, following a large number of cases across childhood, considerable sensitivity testing, controlling for unmeasured family and neighborhood effects, generating an extensive list of predictors, estimating effect sizes, and comparing Manitoba results with those of well-known American studies.

A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors expected to affect bed use in the future, and how to account for these factors. The objective of this paper is to describe these methodological considerations, how decisions were made, and steps taken in our approach to this problem. The actual projections and their implications are the subject of another contribution in this issue of the journal (Finlayson, Stewart, Tate, MacWilliam & Roos, 2005).

Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent three-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.

Hospital overcrowding has plagued Winnipeg and other Canadian cities for years. This study explored factors related to overcrowding. Hospital files were used to examine patterns of hospital use from fiscal years 1996/1997 to 1999/2000. Chart reviews were conducted to examine appropriateness of admissions and hospital stays during one pressure week. Results indicate that pressure periods in the hospital system were driven by an influx of older adults with influenza associated respiratory illnesses. Moreover, examination of one specific pressure week showed that at least 100 beds were occupied by patients who likely did not require acute care. The chart review revealed that a substantial proportion of non-acute patient-days were spent awaiting home care, long-term care, or diagnostic testing services. These findings suggest future bed pressures might be prevented through influenza vaccination and an increase in the availability of--and timely transfer to--alternative levels of care.

Trends in the health status of the entire senior population aged 65 years or older in Manitoba were examined over a 14-year period (1985-1999) using administrative data (about 150,000 individuals). Significant health gains were apparent for a number of important indicators, including acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and hip fractures, although some of these gains were restricted to urban areas. Improvements in these health indicators are significant, as they can have major implications for individuals' need for health services and ability to live independently. In contrast, chronic diseases were on the rise, with the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and dementia increasing substantially over the 14-year period. These trends suggest a need for a policy emphasis on prevention, such as reducing the prevalence of obesity, which is one risk factor for diabetes. Moreover, having sufficient care options in place for the growing number of individuals with dementia is an issue that will have to be addressed.

This study examined academic and social outcomes for high-risk youths in Manitoba, using longitudinal, population-based data. All children born in Manitoba in 1984-1985 who resided in Winnipeg the year they [...]

Background. Although research indicates that influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among older adults, few studies have tried to identify which seniors are particularly at risk of experiencing complications of influenza. The purpose of this study was to compare hospitalizations and deaths due to respiratory illnesses during influenza seasons among seniors (aged 65+) living in the community, senior residences (apartments reserved for seniors), and nursing homes. Methods. Using administrative data, all hospital admissions and deaths due to respiratory illnesses (pneumonia and influenza, chronic lung disease, and acute respiratory diseases) were identified for all individuals aged 65 and older living in Winnipeg, Canada (approximately 88,000 individuals) during four influenza seasons (1995-1996 to 1998-1999). Results. Hospitalization and death rates for respiratory illnesses increased significantly during influenza seasons, compared to fall periods (e.g., 42.7 vs 25.2 hospitalizations per 1000 population aged 80 and older). Moreover, hospitalization rates for pneumonia and influenza, chronic lung disease, and acute respiratory diseases were higher among individuals living in senior residences (42.5 per 1000 for all respiratory illnesses combined) than their counterparts living in the community (22.8 per 1000). Furthermore, deaths due to pneumonia and influenza and chronic lung disease were higher among senior housing residents (4.2 per 1000) than community residents (2.6 per 1000) and were particularly high among nursing home residents (52.1 per 1000). Conclusions. Individuals living in seniors residences are at increased risk of being hospitalized for and dying of respiratory illnesses during influenza seasons. Given that influenza vaccination is currently the best method to reduce influenza-associated illnesses among seniors, this suggests that influenza vaccination strategies should be targeted at this population.

Introduction Children who have a history of involvement in child protection services (CPS) are over-represented in the youth and adult criminal justice systems. There are significant health and socioeconomic implications for individuals involved in either or both CPS and the justice system. Understanding the ‘overlap’ between these two systems would provide insight into the health and social needs of this population. This protocol describes a research programme on the relationship between the child welfare and the youth justice systems, looking specifically at the population involved in both CPS and the youth justice system. We will examine the characteristics associated with involvement in these systems, justice system trajectories of individuals with a history of CPS involvement and early adult outcomes of children involved in both systems. Methods and analysis Administrative data sets will be linked at the individual level for three cohorts born 1991, 1994 and 1998 in Manitoba, Canada. Involvement in CPS will be categorised as ‘placed in out-of-home care’, ‘received in-home services, but was not placed in care’ or ‘no involvement’. Involvement in the youth justice system will be examined through contacts with police between ages 12 and 17 that either led to charges or did not proceed. Individual, maternal and neighbourhood characteristics will be examined to identify individuals at greatest risk of involvement in one or both systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine health services, social services, education, and justice system outcomes among First Nations children and youth with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD).Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, health and social services, education, and justice data were linked with clinical records on First Nations (FN) individuals aged 1 to 25 and diagnosed with FASD between 1999 and 2010 (n = 743). We compared the FN FASD group to non-FN individuals with FASD (non-FN FASD; n = 315) and to First Nations individuals (matched on age, sex, and income) not diagnosed with FASD (FN non-FASD; n = 2229). Rates and relative risks (RRs) were calculated using generalized linear models.Results: FN FASD individuals had similar health services use to non-FN FASD individuals but had greater involvement with child welfare (RR, 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.41) and the justice system (RR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.74) and were more likely to be charged with a crime (RR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.86). There were no suicides/suicide attempts among the non-FN FASD individuals during the study, but the crude rate/100 person-years of suicides among FN FASD individuals (0.22 for females; 1.06 for males) was substantially higher than for FN non-FASD individuals (0.08 for females; 0.32 for males). There were no significant differences between groups in the education outcomes we measured.Conclusions: Young people with FASD are at risk for poor health, education, and social outcomes, but First Nations young people with FASD face comparably higher risks, particularly with child welfare and justice system involvement. The study emphasizes a critical need for appropriate resources for First Nations children with FASD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]