Search

This study analyzed the impact of macroeconomic variables (manufacturing, real exchange rate, government expenditure, and gross fixed capital formation) on GDP growth in Ghana. Utilizing secondary data from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank (1991–2021), we employed a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with interaction effects to assess these relationships. The results indicate that the real exchange rate, manufacturing, and government expenditure have a positive influence on GDP growth, while gross fixed capital formation exhibits a moderately negative effect. To enhance economic growth, it is crucial to optimize capital investments, bolster export competitiveness through targeted policies, and invest in manufacturing innovation. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers aiming to stimulate economic growth in Ghana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of identifying the relationship among macroeconomic variables have been a challenge in developing countries due to frequent changes in policy that alter their behaviors contrary to expectations. Thus, this study is aimed at empirically examining the link between stock market prices and some macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria covering the period January, 2004 to June, 2024. Results revealed that the variables were all integrated of order one, I(1) and a long-run stable equilibrium relationship existed among the variables. Exchange rate and money supply had significant positive impact on stock market prices while inflation rate and interest rate had significant negative impact on stock market prices in Nigeria. The error correction model showed a high speed of adjustment of 99.998% to achieving long-run equilibrium steady state in the Nigerian economic system. Results of the VAR Granger causality test revealed that exchange rate and money supply both have a one-way causative effect on stock prices and inflation rate. Furthermore, inflation rate Granger causes stock market prices, but stock prices do not influence inflation. Moreover, there is bidirectional causality between exchange rate and money supply, indicating that changes in each variable mutually affect the other. The study recommends the evolution of policies to stabilize the exchange rate and money supply, manage inflation and interest rates carefully, monitor the bidirectional relationship between exchange rate and money supply, and engage in long-term economic planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between Poland's stock prices and three key macroeconomic factors: GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates. Using econometric tools like Granger causality tests, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Impulse Response Functions (IRF), I assessed how these factors influence the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WIG Index) using quarterly data (2005-2024). The results showed a significant negative connection between interest rates, inflation, and stock prices: a 1% rise in interest rates leads to a 0.85% drop in stock prices in the following quarter. Inflation also negatively affects stock prices, with a 1% increase leading to a 0.40% decrease. Conversely, GDP growth positively impacts stock prices, where a 1% rise in GDP results in a 0.6% increase. The Granger causality test underscores the importance of monetary policy, showing that interest rate changes may predict stock market movements. Inflation is important; however, it is less predictive than GDP growth, which has a moderate positive impact on stock prices. These findings highlight the sensitivity of Poland's stock market to macroeconomic changes, offering valuable insights for analysts, investors, and policymakers. Future research could include additional factors like exchange rates or international trade to deepen the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freezing assets in the banking network cause a credit crunch in the economy. In Iran, due to the bank-oriented financial system, the majority of the financing of the economy is done through the money market. Meanwhile, banks play the main role in equipping and distributing resources in different sectors of the economy, especially supporting the production sector. The evidence shows that the problem of freezing bank assets in the country is relatively severe and the concerns to escape from this impasse are serious. Meanwhile, there are factors inside the bank and outside of it that affect the freezing of assets. In this research, the subject of investigating the impact of momentums in macroeconomic and banking variables on asset freezing in selected banks listed on the Tehran stock exchange in the period of 2010 to 2014 has been addressed, and the estimation of the model has been done using the Panel-Var method. At first, the incidence of asset freezing is estimated using the basis components analysis. Finally, the impact of momentums has been investigated and analyzed in macroeconomic variables and banking variables on asset freezing. According to the results obtained from the model estimation, macroeconomic and banking variables have a significant effect on asset freezing at a confidence level of 95%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade is considered the central link in the complex system of contemporary international economic relations. It links all countries of the world in a unified economic system whose goal is to address economic problems at the international level through developing productive capacity, expanding employment opportunities, and enhancing the flow of production factors between countries to achieve economic growth. Our study aimed to clarify the considerable impact of some macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, gross domestic product, public spending, foreign direct investment) on foreign trade in Iraq and to determine the degree of relative importance of the macroeconomic variables affecting foreign trade in Iraq. The study followed the descriptive analytical approach by collecting data related to the study for the period from 2003 to 2020 and then analyzing the data obtained through artificial neural networks.

Abstract Since the seminal work of MM irrelevance theory, there has been a long history of controversy among academicians both in developed and developing nations regarding the determinants of capital structure. To this end, the main aim of this study was to investigate firm-specific and country-level determinants of the capital structure of Ethiopian commercial banks. The study adopted an explanatory research design with a quantitative research approach. A panel dataset was obtained from 14 commercial banks, which range from 2010 to 2022. A random effect panel regression result revealed that tangibility, non-debt tax shields, growth, and interest rate had a positive and significant effect, while the gross domestic product had a negative and significant effect on leverage which is used as a measure of capital structure. Among the independent variables tested, ROA, liquidity, effective tax rate, risk, and inflation have an insignificant effect on the capital structure of the selected commercial banks. The study will have implications for managers of commercial banks, legislators, regulators, and other interested parties that can use the study's conclusions to help them make well-informed capital decisions and implement the necessary measures to enhance the financial performance of Ethiopian banks with an optimal ratio of debt to equity.

Based on earlier research, two primary categories of characteristics influence bank profitability. First, each bank has a unique set of profitability drivers that are often the direct outcome of management choices (quality, size, capitalization, efficiency, asset structure, and revenue divergence). The second group of determinants consists of elements like industry concentration, economic growth, inflation, and interest rates related to the profitability of the industry formation and the macroeconomic environment in which the banking system conducts. Capital adequacy may be defined as the ratio of the institution’s main capital to its assets, including loans and investments, to gauge a financial institution’s stability and strength. This paper examines the correlation between capital adequacy and banks’ profitability through the moderating impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates in the banking sectors of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey. To this end, panel data were gathered from the OIC statistics database concerning 2010 and 2021. The study’s regression analysis exposed that although inflation has a significant negative influence on banks’ profitability, while the capital adequacy ratio, exchange rate, and interest rate have positive and significant impacts. Regarding the moderating effect, both inflation and interest rates have a significant positive and negative impact on the relationship between banks’ profitability and capital adequacy, respectively. Additionally, macroeconomic variable interactions with capital adequacy are not statistically significant.

This study investigates the macroeconomic and financial repercussions of a real estate bubble burst in South Korea through the application of Bayesian estimation and impulse response function analysis. By utilizing this approach tailored to the specific economic conditions of South Korea, the research effectively captures the complex ripple effects across a range of financial and macroeconomic variables. The results demonstrate that a real estate bubble burst markedly increases financial market risks, leading to heightened liquidity demands within the banking sector and necessitating adjustments in both deposit rates and bond yields. The study also emphasizes the differentiated impacts on patient and impatient households, where wealth losses drive significant shifts in consumption and labor supply behaviors, further constrained by prevailing labor market conditions. Additionally, the broader economic implications are examined, revealing the adverse effects on corporate output and investment, as well as the dynamics of international capital flows that impact foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates. These findings highlight the urgent need for proactive monitoring and policy interventions to mitigate the detrimental effects of real estate bubbles, ensuring financial stability and fostering sustainable economic growth in South Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital structure has attracted much attention in accounting research (Rajan & Zingales, 1995). However, factors driving capital structure keep changing (Öztekin & Flannery, 2012). Hence, this study focuses on macroeconomic and firm-specific factors that influence enterprises' capital structure decisions in emerging markets. We conduct longitudinal research, analysing data from seven emerging market companies from 2010 to 2018. The study used either a fixed effect or random effect model for estimation, depending on the outcomes of the Hausman specification test. Firm-specific factors such as growth prospects, debt capital cost, and firm size have a substantial impact on capital structure. Macroeconomic factors such as foreign direct investment, inflation rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth significantly impact enterprises' leverage. However, the impact of these characteristics varies across countries, exhibiting distinct patterns in the countries under study. Though, firm-specific and macroeconomic variables explain the capital structure, not all firm-specific and macroeconomic variables are relevant in all African countries. Understanding the elements that influence capital structure decisions can help firms optimise their financing decisions, while regulators can create effective financial regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the seminal work of MM irrelevance theory, there has been a long history of controversy among academicians both in developed and developing nations regarding the determinants of capital structure. To this end, the main aim of this study was to investigate firm-specific and country-level determinants of the capital structure of Ethiopian commercial banks. The study adopted an explanatory research design with a quantitative research approach. A panel dataset was obtained from 14 commercial banks, which range from 2010 to 2022. A random effect panel regression result revealed that tangibility, non-debt tax shields, growth, and interest rate had a positive and significant effect, while the gross domestic product had a negative and significant effect on leverage which is used as a measure of capital structure. Among the independent variables tested, ROA, liquidity, effective tax rate, risk, and inflation have an insignificant effect on the capital structure of the selected commercial banks. The study will have implications for managers of commercial banks, legislators, regulators, and other interested parties that can use the study's conclusions to help them make well-informed capital decisions and implement the necessary measures to enhance the financial performance of Ethiopian banks with an optimal ratio of debt to equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses dynamic panel data estimations based on annual data from 26 European Union countries to evaluate the driving factors of household savings dynamics. Alongside conventional determinants, such as household income and age dependency, the study also includes a less traditional variable, consumer con- fidence, which is often neglected in existing findings. This research extends previous empirical studies in three dimensions. First, it conducts sensitivity analysis using several estimation techniques to support the robustness of baseline results. Second, the investigation is expanded by including an extended set of potential savings drivers. Lastly, it explores variations in saving behaviour among different country groups (Euro Area, Central and Eastern European countries, and Croatia) as well as the crisis periods (Global Financial Crisis and Covid-19 pandemic). The findings highlight the importance of overlooked determinants, shed light on the ambiguous effect of classic variables, and partially confirm earlier research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reports on a study aimed at measuring and characterising consumer over-indebtedness in South Africa, despite the existence of financial regulatory measures and legislation. The study employed quantitative analysis to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables on consumer over-indebtedness. The primary conclusion of the study indicated that the debt-to-disposable-income ratio decreased following the enactment of the National Credit Act; nevertheless, the alterations in debt levels cannot be solely ascribed to the enforcement of regulations and legislation. The study findings indicate that over-indebtedness correlates positively with gross domestic product, consumer expenditure, unemployment, and the debt-to-income ratio, while exhibiting a negative correlation with the interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the abundance of research on reducing carbon emissions, there is a significant gap in understanding the influence of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a spatial-structural perspective. This study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide emissions in six East African countries between 1989 and 2020. Using spatial econometric panel models, the study analyzed spatial dependence among the variables. The empirical findings indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and electricity consumption have positive direct and indirect effects on carbon emissions, while fuel prices and exports have negative direct effects, but positive spillover effects on neighboring countries. Imports have a positive impact on local economies, but negative spillover effects. Additionally, the urban population has no significant impact on the environment. These findings provide important policy implications for optimizing spatial growth patterns and achieving a low-carbon economy in East African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to identify the effect of macroeconomic, industry-specific and bank-specific determinants on the profitability of the Brazilian banking sector. Profitability is measured by return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and economic value added (EVA). We incorporate in the analysis-independent variables of this sector that have not been considered in previous studies. To address profit persistence, we apply a dynamic panel data model and the GMM technique described by Arellano and Bover (1995) over the quarterly period from 2009Q1 to 2019Q4. The main results show that the macroeconomic variables of credit, activity and interest rate contribute to understanding the determining factors of bank profitability in Brazil. Regarding industry-specific and bank-specific determinants, the total operating expenses to total assets ratio and net interest margin are important determinants of the bank profitability, respectively. Thus, these new macroeconomic variables and industry-specific and bank-specific variables are important drivers to understand banking profitability in Brazil, as well as indicators to be monitored by the monetary authority to ensure the financial health of the banking system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

‎Since pension funds are part of the social security system and have a socio-economic function, in order to maintain the value of the insured's savings, they should invest them, which will have a direct relationship with the money market and the capital market of each country. Due to the significant resources they have, pension funds affect the country's economic variables and, of course, are mostly affected by economic variables. This issue reveals the importance of examining how macroeconomic variables affect pension funds and the intensity of each one's impact, as well as the management of funds' resources in the face of the fluctuations of these variables‏. Therefore, in this ‎paper‎, the impact of pension funds on economic variables in 8 countries is investigated. Based on the results obtained in this research, the variables of short-term interest rate, exchange rate, and unemployment rate have an effect on the ratio of pension fund assets to GDP (as an indicator of performance).

Background of the study The systematic impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market returns makes it crucial to comprehend the link between macroeconomic variables and the stock market. Stock prices are closely linked to macroeconomic indicators, a crucial aspect for investors, policymakers, and researchers in emerging markets like India, influencing investment decisions and policy formulation. Methods The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used in this study to examine the causal links between specific macroeconomic factors and Indian stock prices from April 2009 to March 2023. Results The outcomes of the research suggest that macroeconomic variables exert influence on the Indian stock market, across the short and long term. Moreover, the results of the paired Granger causality test suggest that the domestic macroeconomic variables possess predictive significance for stock prices in the Indian stock market. Conclusion The study reveals that macroeconomic variables significantly impact the Indian stock market, highlighting the need for investors and portfolio managers to monitor these conditions to optimize returns and mitigate risks. The Reserve Bank of India should maintain an optimal money supply to prevent inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, while bolstering the export sector and facilitating imports through initiatives like Atma-nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and Make in India. Policies focusing on productivity, infrastructure, and a favourable business environment are also crucial. Therefore, it is crucial for investors and portfolio managers to consistently analyse the current macroeconomic conditions in order to maximize their profits and minimize risks. This research has extensive significance for comprehending the intricate connections between the stock market and macroeconomic issues.

This study focused on the determinant of macroeconomic variables on the non-performing loans of banks in the sub-Saharan African region using the fixed effect panel regression method. Data from twenty-two SSA countries from 2010 to 2021 were used. The results from the study provide a general indication that the macroeconomic environment matters a lot for non-performing loans within the banking sectors of SSA countries. It is therefore recommended that banks in the SSA sub-region learn to develop adaptive mechanisms to address the effects of macroeconomic shocks on their loan policy. These measures may come in the form of well-diversified portfolio systems that will improve banks' hedging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance that different (approaches and models) to modeling the macroeconomy place on theoretical coherence compared to their capacity to match the data and the quality of the econometric model description varies. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are more theoretical, whereas vector autoregression (SVAR) models provide a better match to the data. For developed economies, there are well-established publications on measuring the response of economic indicators to government spending shocks and aggregate macroeconomic activity. In addition, such empirical studies in emerging nations are scarce. This research seeks to fill this void by utilizing the DSGE model and the SVAR approach to investigate the influence of the response of macroeconomic variables to government spending shocks in the Sudanese economy from 1989 to 2019. The findings indicate that the influence of government expenditure shocks on the Sudanese economy is inconsistent with Keynesian principles, as some selected macroeconomic indicators do not respond positively to government expenditure shocks. The non-responsiveness of the inflation rate and exchange rate to government expenditure shocks is demonstrated; this finding may indicate the monetary authority's weakness in managing monetary variables in the Sudanese economy. In most situations, fiscal and monetary policies were in sync, and "double expansionary" and "double contractionary" policy coordination may be the proper approach; and also create tools that fit the Sudanese economy's structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Development & Capital / Majallah-i tusiah & Sarmāyah is the property of Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Faculty of Management & Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Religación: Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades is the property of Religacion: Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Building on the GJR-GARCH model, this paper uses the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) approach to link monthly realized volatility of EU carbon future prices and macroeconomic variables to the volatility of EU carbon futures market and proposes the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model incorporating macroeconomic variables including the economic sentiment indicator of the EU, the harmonized index of consumer prices of the EU, the European economic policy uncertainty index and ECB's marginal lending facility rate (GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-X models). An empirical analysis based on the monthly macroeconomic variables and daily EUA futures data shows that the above four low-frequency macroeconomic variables have significant positive or negative impacts on the long-term volatility of EUA future prices, respectively. The GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-X models significantly outperform other competing models, including the GJR-GARCH model, GARCH-MIDAS model and standard GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model, in terms of out-of-sample volatility forecasting, which suggests that macroeconomic variables contain important information for EUA future price volatility forecasts. In particular, the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model with harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) (GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-HICP model) performs best in out-of-sample volatility forecasting, and our findings are robust to different forecasting windows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The importance of entrepreneurship is highlighted due to its role in innovation, accepting risk and trying to improve the current situation, and adopting appropriate policies requires knowing the factors affecting entrepreneurship. In the meantime, an increasing number of researches show that the macroeconomic performance affects the decisions of starting new businesses. This article intends to evaluate the effect of macroeconomic variables on entrepreneurship from the perspective of starting new businesses in the industrial sector in Iran, considering the productive role of industrial activities in the prosperity of economies. Method: The research is applied in terms of purpose and based on the collection of correlation analysis data, and the relationship between macroeconomic variables and entrepreneurship has been measured in the framework of time-variable parameter generalized vector regression econometric model (TVP- FAVAR). The data of this study are seasonal and related to the time period of 2006-2021. Results: Positive GDP shocks are associated with increasing entrepreneurship in the industrial sector. But inflation and unemployment shocks reduce entrepreneurship in the industry sector. The shock effect of capital formation is fixed. Conclusion: Macroeconomic indicators have significant effects on entrepreneurship in the industrial sector. Therefore, the development of entrepreneurship requires the adoption of policies aimed at improving the macroeconomic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of the policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic is relevant both for assessing the impact caused and for deriving policy lessons in case such phenomena recur. The main objective here is to determine the relationship between human activity and reported COVID-19 cases. To measure human activity, a metric of nighttime lights is generated using satellite images. Conducting cointegration tests we found a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two variables, and through causality tests we confirmed that it is feasible to predict COVID-19 infections from changes in nighttime lights. Using econometric models for time series, it is shown that COVID-19 infections respond to changes in nighttime lights with high statistical significance and with a lag of up to two weeks, implying that the intensity of human activity that was happening now would have been useful for planning the resources that would be necessary two weeks later. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Sociologia, Problemas e Práticas is the property of Centro de Investigacao e Estudos de Sociologia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The current research aims to investigate the power of financial distress prediction models while presenting a combination model, comparing the extracted model with the Merton model and the binary logistic regression model in predicting financial distress. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, the information of 168 distressed companies selected based on the specific criteria of distress and 168 healthy companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2006 and 2019 have been used. After reviewing past studies, 25 variables affecting financial distress, including 17 accounting variables, 4 market variables, and 4 macroeconomic variables, were identified, and by emphasizing the frequency and successful performance of these ratios in past studies and performing statistical tests, the final indicators were selected. To determine the dependent variable, Merton's model was used, and finally, by applying the logit model and determining the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable, a composite model was extracted. The research results showed that adding economic and stock market variables to financial variables does not increase the ability to predict financial distress and the combined model has better explanatory power than the Merton model and binary logistic regression. In the present research, to predict financial distress, all three categories of accounting, economic and stock market variables are considered together, and the emphasis is not only on accounting variables, and the combined model is compared with the accounting and market model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tajikistan holds the eighth position globally in terms of hydropower potential, estimated at 527 terawatt-hours (TWh), with a technically exploitable capacity of 317 TWh. Only 4–6 percent of this immense potential is currently utilized. In this paper, employing a combination of the Johansen cointegration test, vector autoregression, and the Granger-causality test on annual data from 1993 to 2021, we examine the causality relationship between electricity production and key macroeconomic variables, including gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, exports, imports, final consumption, capital investment, and employment, in Tajikistan. The empirical findings reveal a positive unidirectional causality from electricity production to exports and imports. A positive bidirectional or feedback causality is found between electricity production and variables such as GDP, GDP per capita, final consumption, and employment. No causality relationship between electricity production and variables such as trade openness and capital investment is observed. The exploration of complex causal relationships between electricity production and key macroeconomic variables in Tajikistan, as revealed in this study, offers a modest yet meaningful addition to academic discourse. It presents insights that may inform policymakers and stakeholders, albeit with a recognition of the limitations inherent in the findings. These insights could potentially guide the formulation of sustainable development strategies and shed light on the underutilized potential of the country's hydropower resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research investigates the trend of containing the impact of external economic shocks on some of the financial variables in countries exporting primary commodities, especially oil — and Iraq is selected as the sample in this research. The purpose of this research is to predict the role of fiscal policy in the context of the impact of external economic shocks on macroeconomic variables. The research adopts the standard methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model test to find the co-integration of the public spending model. The results of the study reveal that a shock in public spending leads to an increase in money supply, inflation and aggregate consumption. The conclusion indicates that there is an equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model (money supply, inflation rate, total consumption, the dummy variable, and government spending). The research’s main recommendation include the diversification of the base of the Iraqi economy and create an economy characterized by a gradual increase in the contribution to other economic sectors. This contributes to the formation of the gross domestic product and the diversification of the structure of public revenues. It also prepares for the change of the Iraqi economy from the rentier economy into the market economy. The aim of the research is to reach findings that prevent the Iraqi economy and the public budget from sudden fluctuations in oil revenues.

One of the expected consequences of the post-pandemic era has been the global inflationary process with multiscalar characteristics, where construction prices in Chile have experienced unpredictable fluctuations, severely affecting various types of projects, both public and private, from large companies to small public initiatives. On the other hand, the growing demand for housing in the midst of the housing crisis in Chile has been hindered by the increase in material prices. In this scenario, it is relevant to generate an ecosystem of predictive models for construction costs that take into account the external factors that influence construction costs and, therefore, the price of new homes and public infrastructure. This study contributes to the development of this ecosystem by using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to identify the predictive factors that influence construction costs in Chile, particularly exploring the influence of macroeconomic variables on construction costs by considering a set of incidental variables that are not always considered in this type of analysis and that involve fundamentals from sectors other than construction. The methodological results allow for the testing of predictive models with a good level of statistical significance, as well as clearly identifying those external factors that impact construction material prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the global economic environment, the common pursuit of sustainable growth, infrastructure development, and poverty reduction prevails. However, the Nigerian government has encountered significant hurdles in its efforts to attain macroeconomic stability and the necessary conditions for economic prosperity. Consequently, the government has turned to external sources, primarily through debt acquisition, as a solution. This reliance on external debt is rooted in Nigeria’s struggle to effectively address the savings-investment gap, a challenge driven by various factors, including limited domestic savings, insufficient foreign exchange earnings, poor productivity levels, and inadequate tax revenues. Despite the visible increase in Nigeria’s external debt in recent times, noticeable improvements in macroeconomic indicators have remained elusive, raising questions about the effective allocation of these borrowed resources. In response to this discord, this study delves into the complex interaction between external debt and macroeconomic variables within the Nigerian economy. By employing a thorough analysis using the symmetric - Granger (1981) causality framework, covering the period from 1986 to 2020. Except for economic growth, which shows a causal relationship with external debt, the results showed no causal relationship between external debt and investment, economic growth, or exchange rate. Consequently, these results emphasize the importance for the government to explore alternative means of obtaining funds, rather than relying extensively on external debt, especially when pursuing projects with productive objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the link between energy (using electricity generation as a proxy) and sustainable economic growth alongside the mediating role of salient socio-political factors, such as education, life expectancy, government effectiveness, and governance structure, among others, based on data about the Nigerian economy from 1980 to 2022. We employed a battery of econometric techniques, ranging from unit root tests to autoregressive distributed lag bound tests for cointegration and a modified version of the Granger causality test proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin. We also employed general-to-specific estimation techniques to examine the possibility of substituting renewable and non-renewable energy sources. Our results suggest a bi-directional Granger causality between electricity generation and sustainable economic growth. This supports the validity of the feedback hypothesis, suggesting that electricity and sustainable economic growth are interdependent. Our results further revealed that socio-political factors significantly impact electricity generation. The results of our general-to-specific estimation techniques suggest that no possibility of substitution exists between the two main energy sources in Nigeria. This has some key policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of macroeconomic forces and the stock market is a dynamic field in finance because investors' interest changes due to their preference for high returns over lower returns and risk-averse investors are always desirous of mitigating risk across emerging economies are playing a pivotal role in the global investment communities. Therefore, this study focuses on various economic indicators that robust business growth. The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate macroeconomic forces' linkages with stock markets by applying a panel data analysis. Data was taken for the period 1999 to 2019 for Asian stock markets. Panel data econometric techniques have been used to analyze the data of the Asian equity market. Studies have taken stock market data from five emerging economies, i.e., Pakistan, China, India, Philippines, and Japan. Panel data results confirm that gross domestic product, interest rates, exchange rate, and money supply positively impact market return. However, correlation results reveal that market return strongly relates to foreign direct investment, interest rate, and money supply. The co-integration result also reveals the presence of a long-run relationship. Further results show that GDP has a leading behavior with market return, and market return has a leading behavior with GDP, CPI, ER, and IPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) reflects more information related to exchange rate volatility than traditional macroeconomic variables do, and thus may have stronger predictive power in forecasting exchange rate volatility. Based on data from developed and developing economies (including Japan, the United Kingdom, the Euro Area, Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, and China), this paper provides in- and out-of-sample evidence that the EPU differential between two economies outperforms several macroeconomic predictors (for example, GDP growth and volatility of inflation growth) in forecasting exchange rate volatility, which is also supported by a Monte Carlo experiment. Moreover, the mechanism analysis shows that increased EPU differential is associated with increased foreign exchange trading activities and reduced bilateral trade, which helps explain the predictive power of EPU for exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, we find that EPU can predict both long- and short-run components of exchange rate volatility. Our main findings are robust after using alternative empirical proxies or controlling for endogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic development of a state can be accurately characterized as the measurable changes in macroeconomic indicators that result in an increase in the overall production or output over a specific timeframe, in comparison to the previous period. Several key macroeconomic factors contribute to the advancement of economic growth. These factors include the industrial production, unemployment rate, business Confidence Index, government budget deficit, and the labor force participation rate. The study employed secondary data from January 2016 to August 2023, with a monthly frequency, to estimate the coefficients. The data encompassed the United States, Pakistan, and the rest of the world. The empirical findings indicate that there exists a negative relationship between equality and economic growth in the United States, Pakistan, and other countries worldwide. The findings demonstrate that the global pandemic has had a notable impact on the industrial production of the World, the United States, and Pakistan, with an initial increase followed by a gradual decline. The unemployment rates in the United States, Pakistan, and the rest of the world have experienced a substantial decline. Simultaneously, the rate of unemployment has witnessed a notable increase, resulting in significant and adverse effects on the respective economies. The decrease in the Business Confidence Index can be attributed to heightened levels of uncertainty, which in turn have had a detrimental impact on the gross domestic product of the United States, Pakistan, and other countries worldwide. The reduction in imports has resulted in a decrease in the government budget deficit, which has had a notable impact on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses dynamic panel data estimations based on annual data from 26 European Union countries to evaluate the driving factors of household savings dynamics. Alongside conventional determinants, such as household income and age dependency, the study also includes a less traditional variable, consumer confidence, which is often neglected in existing findings. This research extends previous empirical studies in three dimensions. First, it conducts sensitivity analysis using several estimation techniques to support the robustness of baseline results. Second, the investigation is expanded by including an extended set of potential savings drivers. Lastly, it explores variations in saving behaviour among different country groups (Euro Area, Central and Eastern European countries, and Croatia) as well as the crisis periods (Global Financial Crisis and Covid-19 pandemic). The findings highlight the importance of overlooked determinants, shed light on the ambiguous effect of classic variables, and partially confirm earlier research.

Value changes in the real estate market affect both the quality of bank loan portfolios and financial stability and the real economy. The Republic of Serbia is one of the countries facing an upward trend in demand for housing. This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic and banking variables on the real estate price index in Serbia for the period from 2014 to 2023 on a quarterly basis. Also, panel regression and correlation analysis are applied in this research. The selected independent (explanatory) variables are the gross domestic product, the consumer price index, the interest rate on bank loans, the exchange rate of the domestic currency against the Euro and household saving. The research results showed that the independent variable consumer price index had the most significant impact on the housing price index. On the other hand, the following independent variables had the most significant negative impact on the dependent variable (housing price index): interest rate on bank loans and the domestic currency against the Euro.

The 2008 U.S.A. financial crisis, which subsequently spread around the world, showed that financial distress in the banking network could spread to the network of all financial institutions and the entire economy of a country. For this reason, the development of accurate measurements of the risk of transmission of financial distress by each bank in the banking network is very important in controlling the risk of financial intermediation in every country. However, an issue that has not received much attention in previous research is the impact of macroeconomic factors on the risk of spreading financial distress. This is important because governments can anticipate the possibility of an economic crisis by anticipating an increased risk of spreading financial helplessness and adopting monetary and fiscal policies to reduce such risk. The present study, in three stages, estimates the risk of financial distress using the KMV method, estimates the risk of transmission of financial distress using the VAR method, and models the effects of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate, and GDP on the risk of contagion. Based on the results, it is clear that GDP has a statistically significant inverse relationship with the risk of transmission of financial distress, meaning that with increasing GDP, the risk of transmission of financial distress is expected to decrease. Also, the relationship between the exchange rate and the risk of transmission is direct and significant, and an increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase in the interdependence of financial institutions and, consequently, an increase in the risk of transmission of financial distress.