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An empirical approach to constructing macroeconomic models.Macroeconomic Modeling presents an empirically based approach to the construction of macroeconomic models—the Cowles Commission approach—as a response to the backlash that has taken place since the late 1970s to this methodology. The emphasis in the literature has been on tightly specified theoretical models, which lack realism. In this book, Ray C. Fair develops models to analyze a variety of issues and events in macroeconomics and the US economy, and he explains the econometric techniques needed to estimate those models. Many of the results are either contrary to results from the theoretical models or cannot be examined by the theoretical models because they omit many important features of the economy.Fair covers a broad range of topics, including inflation and unemployment, the size of wealth effects, the behavior of the Federal Reserve and its effects on the economy, the effects of fiscal policy, Okun's law, and contractions and expansions. Macroeconomic Modeling will appeal equally to graduate students and researchers as well as macroeconomic policy makers.

This book deals with the mathematical theory of macroeconomic hysteresis, which is the theory of aggregation of microeconomic hysteresis. Microeconomic sunk cost hysteresis is usually represented by relatively simple hysteresis loops with no discrete memory of past economic shocks. It turns out that macroeconomic aggregation leads to the formation of complex multibranch hysteresis with discrete memory of past economic shocks. Consequently, the macroeconomic aggregation of microeconomic hysteresis results in the emergence of new economic phenomena.In the book, the basic properties of macroeconomic hysteresis are mathematically studied. It is demonstrated that certain important properties of macroeconomic hysteresis (such as history-dependent branching, erasure effects of some past economic shocks, geometric features of macroeconomic hysteresis loops, etc.) are insensitive to specific structures of microeconomic hysteresis subject to aggregation. This suggests that the above properties may be viewed as universal. Furthermore, it is pointed out that these aggregation models have the prediction power of future macroeconomic branching, which may be employed for the prediction of future economic evolution.

Demonstrating that there are (superior) alternatives to the modern macroeconomic mainstream and its DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models, this book presents the cutting edge in macroeconomic modelling, economic policy, and methodology from the perspective of heterodox economic thinking.The first part of the book explores methodological issues, advocating for a stronger ethical consideration in macroeconomics and for the adoption of a strategy of pluralism to ensure that macroeconomic theory is capable of adapting to real-world issues. The second part highlights recent trends in empirical Stock-Flow Consistent models by collecting a group of the most well-developed empirical models of five different economies: the Danish, the Dutch, the French, the Italian, and the Argentinian models. In all five cases, the models are used to discuss various policy aspects of the individual economies. Finally, the book explores issues of macroeconomic policy which are largely neglected by mainstream economists including financial (in)stability and macro imbalances. The book emphasizes the need for investigating sectoral balances, which are crucial elements for investigating imbalances from the heterodox perspective.This book will be of significant interest to students and scholars of macroeconomics, economic modelling, economic methodology and heterodox economics more broadly.

This timely book presents a nuanced investigation into the idiosyncrasies of the supermultiplier model, examining its application to residential investment, exports and fiscal policy. It offers an accessible introduction to this growth model, hypothesising that it is one of the cornerstones of modern macroeconomics. By highlighting what this unique model adds to other heterodox systems that share common elements, such as structural growth models, this insightful book strengthens the current theoretical understanding of the new macroeconomics. Utilising important case studies such as open and decarbonised economies to encapsulate key messages gained from the study of this model, it fully acknowledges that the supermultiplier is still a work in progress and may be developed further. The Supermultiplier will be hugely influential for finance and economics graduate students focusing on an alternative macroeconomics approach. It will also appeal to academics within the same fields searching for a model that permits direct application within spreadsheets.

This open access book encompasses a collection of in-depth analyses showcasing the challenges and ways forward for macroeconomic modelling of R&D and innovation policies. Based upon the proceedings of the EC-DG JRC-IEA workshop held in Brussels in 2017, it presents cutting-edge contributions from a number of leading economists in the field. It provides a comprehensive overview of the current academic and policy challenges surrounding R&D as well as of the state-of-the-art modelling techniques.The book brings to the forefront outstanding issues related to the assessment of the macroeconomic impact of R&D policies and its modelling. It speaks to the rising importance of R&D and innovation policy, and the proliferation of macroeconomic models featuring endogenous technological change.The contents of this book will be of interest to both academic and policy audiences working in the fields of R&D and innovation.

This book presents an agent-based macroeconomic model developed on the Keynesian principle of effective demand and the Wicksellian theory of cumulative process. The main purpose of the book is to demystify inherent forces that revive an economy from a long-run downturn. The model has three types of bounded-rational agents: firm, household, and bank. To highlight the autonomous revival mechanisms, the model is assumed to be completely closed and free from any external influences such as changes in management of aggregate demand or supply/demand shocks. The key finding of the book is that diversity of firms is a crucial element in reviving investment activities. While a production sector is represented by a single firm in a conventional model, this model has introduced a large number of heterogeneous firms that confront diverse constraints both at the firm and aggregate levels. The behaviours of these firms may vary despite being exposed to the same aggregate environment. For example, economic downturns usually precipitate a fall in real wages as a response to decreased aggregate demand. Most firms reduce their employment focusing on the reduction in aggregate demand. However, some firms identify a reduction in real wage as a sign of improving profitability hence they may expand employment. This could result in an increased aggregate demand and benefit other firms with further employment. It could even reverse the trend to an upslope, thereby ultimately achieving full of near full employment. This book details further on: (1) the rigidity of prices and wages in a stable economy (2) the fundamental factors to establish a robust and high-performing economy, with the focus on the importance of a stable and equitable macroeconomic environment.

Macroeconomic Analysis in the Classical Tradition explains how the influence of Keynes's macroeconomics, including his changed definitions of some key macroeconomic concepts, has impeded many analysts'ability to readily resolve disputes in modern macroeconomics. Expanding on his earlier work—Macroeconomics without the Errors of Keynes (2019)—the author delves into more aspects of macroeconomic theory and argues for a revision of Keynes's contribution to the field. Attention is given to theories and concepts such as Say's Law, the quantity theory of money, the liquidity trap, the permanent income hypothesis, 100% money, and the Phillips curve analysis. The chapters work to build a careful critique of Keynes's economics and make the case that the classical macroeconomics of Smith, Say, Ricardo, Mill, and others could help resolve present-day policy disagreements and redefine macroeconomic priorities.This book provides essential reading for advanced students and scholars with an interest in the foundations of Keynes's theories and current debates within macroeconomic policy.

The birth and death of firms is one of the main features of the business cycle. Yet mainstream DGSE macroeconomic models mostly ignore this phenomenon, thereby excluding any potential impact of economic policy on the probability of the birth and death of firms. Those DGSE models that do allow for this phenomenon do so at the cost of drastic simplifications, which effectively rule out causal links between the strategic interaction of industrial firms and the macroeconomy. This innovative new book develops a bottom-up, agent-based framework that shows how strategic interactions at the level of oligopolistic firms, and even at the level of individuals, affect entire industrial sectors and the equilibrium of the macroeconomy. It will appeal to academic researchers and graduate students working in computational economics, agent-based modelling and econophysics, as well as mainstream economists interested in learning more about alternatives to DGSE models in macroeconomics.

This book is a further development of the theory of parametric control. It includes: numerical methods of testing (verification) of software implementation of mathematical models by assessing the stability of mappings defined by the model; sufficient conditions for the existence of the solutions of some types of problems of dynamic optimization; the existence of continuous dependence of optimal values of criteria on exogenous functions and parameters; and the existence of points of bifurcation of extremals of such problems. It demonstrates that this theory offers a constructive methodology for middle-term forecasting, macroeconomic analysis and estimation of optimal values of economic characteristics on the basis of advanced global mathematical models, namely Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model, and Hybrid Econometric model. In addition, it includes conditions for the applicability of the computational experiments'results, into practice.

This book addresses one of the most important research activities in empirical macroeconomics. It provides a course of advanced but intuitive methods and tools enabling the spatial and temporal disaggregation of basic macroeconomic variables and the assessment of the statistical uncertainty of the outcomes of disaggregation. The empirical analysis focuses mainly on GDP and its growth in the context of Poland. However, all of the methods discussed can be easily applied to other countries. The approach used in the book views spatial and temporal disaggregation as a special case of the estimation of missing observations (a topic on missing data analysis). The book presents an econometric course of models of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). The main advantage of using the SURE specification is to tackle the presented research problem so that it allows for the heterogeneity of the parameters describing relations between macroeconomic indicators. The book contains model specification, as well as descriptions of stochastic assumptions and resulting procedures of estimation and testing. The method also addresses uncertainty in the estimates produced. All of the necessary tests and assumptions are presented in detail. The results are designed to serve as a source of invaluable information making regional analyses more convenient and – more importantly – comparable. It will create a solid basis for making conclusions and recommendations concerning regional economic policy in Poland, particularly regarding the assessment of the economic situation. This is essential reading for academics, researchers, and economists with regional analysis as their field of expertise, as well as central bankers and policymakers.

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.

The last few decades have witnessed an outpouring of literature on macroeconomic models in the broad'heterodox'tradition of Marx, Keynes, Robinson, Kaldor and Kalecki. These models yield an alternative analytical framework in which the big questions of our day - such as how inequality is related to growth or stagnation, and whether long-run growth is stable or unstable - can be fruitfully addressed. Heterodox Macroeconomics provides an accessible, pedagogically oriented treatment of the leading models and approaches in heterodox macroeconomics with clear, step-by-step presentations of core models and their solutions, properties and implications. The book begins with an overview and comparison of heterodox and mainstream approaches to long-run growth. Next it covers the core classical-Marxian, neo-Keynesian and neo-Kaleckian models of growth and distribution in the heterodox tradition. Numerous contemporary extensions, developments and alternatives are then explored, including models of financial instability,'supermultiplier'models, and debates about whether capacity utilization converges to a'normal'rate. The book also gives extensive coverage to models of growth in open economies, emphasizing the role of Kaldorian cumulative causation in fostering divergence among national economies, and the limitations imposed by balance-of-payments constraints on countries that rely on export-led growth. Heterodox Macroeconomics will prove to be an invaluable text for graduate and advanced undergraduate students of macroeconomics as well as those in courses on post-Keynesian theory, structuralist macroeconomics, or other heterodox approaches to economics.

This book provides a systematic approach to analyzing macroeconomic developments, focusing on macroeconomic accounts, analysis, and the effects of selected policies on a nation's economy. The first part of the book describes the data, accounts, and analysis of the four main macroeconomic sectors — real, external, fiscal, and monetary — and discusses the accounting and economic relations among these sectors, using a flow of funds approach. Key indicators are presented for each sector and used to show how macroeconomic developments can be assessed and problems identified.The second part of the book discusses fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policy and their economic implications. These policies, along with selected structural reforms, are compared along several dimensions and shown how they can be used, in various combinations or individually, to address a variety of macroeconomic difficulties.

This book takes a new look at the golden age in neoclassical growth theory and explores in detail sustainability and optimum growth in China, the US and Europe. Innovation, foreign direct investment, trade and growth dynamics are key elements in modern economies – including perspectives on green growth and aspects of the knowledge production function in the context of multinational companies. As such the book considers the role of foreign direct investment in a modified growth model and discusses innovation in an enhanced Mundell-Fleming macro model. Moreover, for the first time it directly links a knowledge production function to the macro production function in a broader context, including real money balances in the production function. It shows – also with empirical relevance – that FDI inward stocks relative to the GDP of host countries, the number of researchers and per capita income are relevant drivers of new knowledge and the stock of knowledge, respectively. This new Schumpeterian theoretical approach lends itself to important policy conclusions for both OECD members and newly industrialized countries.

This paper examines the policy challenges a country faces when it wants to both reduce inflation and maintain a sustainable external position. Mundell's (1962) policy assignment framework suggests that these two goals may be mutually incompatible unless monetary and fiscal policies are properly coordinated. Unfortunately, if the fiscal authority is unwilling to cooperate—a case of fiscal intransigence—central banks that pursue a disinflation on a ‘go it alone'basis will cause the country's external position to further deteriorate. A dynamic analysis shows that if the central bank itself lacks credibility in its inflation goal, it must rely even more on cooperation from the fiscal authority than otherwise. Echoing Sargent and Wallace's (1981) ‘unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,'in these circumstances, a ‘go it alone'policy may successfully stabilize prices and output, but only on a short-term basis.

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.

This volume provides a broad overview of the development of macroeconomic theory and methods. Against this background fundamental questions are addressed by the authors: reconciliation of micro and macroeconomic theory, the role of money in macroeconomic modelling, the concept of income, and new suggestions for the basic framework of macroeconomic theorizing.

This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.

This volume, originally published in 1964, is intended for students of macroeconomic theory and mathematical programming. Part 1 includes critical discussion of debates from the 1950s and 60s in the related fields of income-employment, trade cycles and general prices, with an ultimate view to extending macroeconomic analysis and policy beyond the conventional purview; Part 2 suggests various possible macro applications of mathematical programming techniques to optimization problems, with a secondary view to forwwarding the synthesis of aggregative economic theory and multisectoral input-output analysis.

This book is concerned with recent developments in time series and panel data techniques for the analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. It provides a rigorous, nevertheless user-friendly, account of the time series techniques dealing with univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as panel data models. It is distinct from other time series texts in the sense that it also covers panel data models and attempts at a more coherent integration of time series, multivariate analysis, and panel data models. It builds on the author's extensive research in the areas of time series and panel data analysis and covers a wide variety of topics in one volume. Different parts of the book can be used as teaching material for a variety of courses in econometrics. It can also be used as reference manual. It begins with an overview of basic econometric and statistical techniques, and provides an account of stochastic processes, univariate and multivariate time series, tests for unit roots, cointegration, impulse response analysis, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, simultaneous equation models, vector autoregressions, causality, forecasting, multivariate volatility models, panel data models, aggregation and global vector autoregressive models (GVAR). The techniques are illustrated using Microfit 5 (Pesaran and Pesaran, 2009, OUP) with applications to real output, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices.

The content of the book consists of seven units of which five units are taken from Calculus and two from Higher Algebra. Calculus portion contains these topics: Functions, Limit and Continuty, Differentiation, Applications of Derivative and Integration. Algebra portion contains Determinanat and Matrix.

Ethiopia's model for delivering basic services appears to be succeeding and to confirm that services improve when service providers are more accountable to citizens. As discussed in the World Development Report 2004, accountability for delivering basic services can take an indirect, long route, in which citizens influence service providers through government, or a more direct, short route between service providers and citizens. When the long, indirect route of accountability is ineffective, service delivery can suffer, especially among poor or marginalized citizens who find it challenging to express their views to policymakers. In Ethiopia, the indirect route of accountability works well precisely because of decentralization. Service providers are strictly accountable to local governments for producing results, but in turn, the local authorities are held accountable by the regional and federal governments. A degree of local competition for power and influence helps to induce local authorities and service provides to remain open to feedback from citizens and take responsibility for results. The direct route of accountability has been reinforced by measures to strengthen financial transparency and accountability (educating citizens on local budgets and publicly providing information on budgets and service delivery goals), social accountability (improving citizens'opportunities to provide feedback directly to local administrators and service providers), and impartial procedures to redress grievances.Woreda-level (district) spending has been a very effective strategy for Ethiopia to attain its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Woreda health and education goes to pay for health extension workers (HEWs) and teachers. This study finds evidence that woreda-level spending in health and education is effective. Owing to the intervention of HEWs, the use of health services has increased, especially among the poorest quintiles. Finally, the effect of woreda-level spending on agricultural extension workers is associated with higher yields for major crops. Spending on agricultural extension workers increases the probability that farmers, regardless of the size of their plots, will use improved farming techniques. Education, health, and agriculture account for 97 percent of woreda spending. This is complemented by support for capacity building and citizen voice. Clearly, spending efficiency is improved through better capacity, more transparency, and greater accountability to citizens.

The authors, leading researchers in the fields of mathematical economics and methodology, present the first comprehensive synthesis of literature on qualitative and other nonparametric techniques, which are important elements of comparative statics and stability analysis in economic theory. The topics covered show how to assess the comparative statics and stability of economic models without a precise quantitative knowledge of all model components. Applications of the analysis range from determining refutable hypotheses from theory to auditing the solutions of large, computer-based systems.This book discusses in depth the methodology involved in a nonparametric analysis of many neoclassical economic models. Constituting a virtually self-contained manual on such analysis, it provides detailed derivation of necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of restrictive comparative statics and stability results for a range of specified models. Further, algorithms for applying certain of these conditions are given, with examples, as well as the underlying mathematical approach taken.A large body of research is unified covering issues that have been dealt with piecemeal in scattered but important journal articles by the authors and others. The book will prove invaluable to mathematical economists, mathematicians specializing in matrix or graph theory, applied economists working with large-scale economic models, and advanced students of economics.Originally published in 1999.The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

This book is devoted to the study of dynamical models of decentralized economic systems. The models considered are based on the Leontief simple dynamic model with various mechanisms for decentralized planning and management. Branches of the economic system are treated as fully independent economic agents that plan their work according to their own purposes. It is shown that the lack of coordination between economic agents leads to a limit cycle for some economic indicators. Conversely, the exchange of information between the economic agents enables a move toward balanced growth. These results are generalized for the model with dynamics of the productive assets and for the model with the final consumption. The analysis also considers a problem of endogenous technological progress in a decentralized economy. The appendix includes a short review of non-negative matrices. The book offers a valuable resource for mathematical economists and graduate students specializing in mathematical economics.

This book analyzes China's current macroeconomic situation (high savings, investment, and economic growth rates), and looks at other topics such as external demand-driven economic fluctuations, structural and cost-push inflation, and economic structural change. Additionally, the author examines the effects of China's monetary policy and China's experience in demand management. Finally, the book applies numerous data and economic models (the AD—AS Model, the Purchasing Power Parity Theory, and the CMAFM Model) to the analysis of China's macro-economy.

This book gives a comprehensive description of macroeconometric modeling and its development over time. The first part depicts the history of macroeconometric model building, starting with Jan Tinbergen's and Lawrence R. Klein's contributions. It is unique in summarizing the development and specific structure of macroeconometric models built in North America, Europe, and various other parts of the world. The work thus offers an extensive source for researchers in the field. The second part of the book covers the systematic characteristics of macroeconometric models. It includes the household and enterprise sectors, disequilibria, financial flows, and money market sectors.

​​​​​This is a sequel to the book by Dr. A. Ashimov and his colleagues, Macroeconomic Analysis and Economic Policy Based on Parametric Control. The authors have expanded both the developed mathematical apparatus and the scope of problems and applications stemming from the practice of steering a national economy of a small country in the dynamic environment of the international economic order. The developed theoretical foundation is used in Chapter 1 to suggest a decision support system operating in the framework of state economic policy making. Chapter 2 presents various mathematical models built on the basis of the available statistical data and provides quality assessment of these models. Parametric control problems are being formulated on the basis of these models as problems of mathematical programming, and the obtained solutions are subjected to analyses and interpretations. This is demonstrated by the analysis of the effect of uncontrollable factors on the problem solutions. Chapter 3 is aimed at the modelling and analysis of cyclic phenomena in economics and their structural stability. Chapter 4 presents solutions of specific problems of national economy and analysis and interpretation of their solutions. In summary, the authors formulate comprehensive mathematical models of some critical mechanisms in micro economics previously known only on a qualitative level. They provide vigorous mathematical analysis of the models that justifies their applicability for the formulation of parametric control problems, and the existence of model-based solutions. The complexity of the resultant problems is addressed by the formulation of the appropriate algorithms. The described methodology leads to the development of computer-based decision support systems.​

Most re cent contributions to disequilibrium theory have a high level of abstraction. Empirical studies explicitly based on disequilibrium are still relatively scarce. However, empirical macro economics anticipated the theoretical development, and amalgamated classical and Keynesian elements often without a clear-cut formal base. Now a theoretical integration of neo-classical and neo-Keynesian economics seems under way. There is a renewed interest in the micro-economic foundations of macroeconomics with a special focus on the behaviour of economic agents operating in non-clearing markets. In some instances these theoretical developments offer an ex post justification for empirical macro-economic practices. Generally however, they call for new ways of empirical macro-economic model building. This study operates on the border line between empirical macro economics and theoretical disequilibrium macro-economic theory. Our interest in macro-economic disequilibrium originates from the empirical side. Foreign trade relations for several countries revealed significant pressure of demand effects. Hence, the spillover of excess demand in domestic markets to foreign markets seemed a rather general phenomenon. This fact could be explained by a theory that states that actual demand for products from domestic ftrms will gene rally and systematically differ from the ex ante demand as suggested by equilibrium analysis. This latter demand concept comes close to Clower's'notional demand'and Patinkin's'potential demand'.

Das vorliegende Buch ist eine Einführung in die praktische Arbeit mit makroökonometrischen Modellen. Die Autoren sind auf dem Feld international ausgewiesene Wissenschaftler. Die Beiträge thematisieren alle Aspekte des Verständnisses der statistisch/ökonometrisch und ökonomisch-theoretischen Grundlagen makroökonometrischer Modelle, ihrer Wirkungsbeziehungen sowie ihrer Prognose- und Simulationsleistungen. Die Beiträge sind für sich verständlich und wenden sich an Interessierte, ohne spezifische statistische oder ökonometrische Vorkenntnisse vorauszusetzen. Der Leser kann die wichtigsten Methoden und Verfahren anhand der allgemein verfügbaren Verfahren und Daten sowie des verwendeten makroökonometrischen Modells leicht nachvollziehen. Das verwendete Modell ist das RWI-Konjunkturmodell, ein mittelgroßes makroökonometrisches Modell für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, das seit mehr als 25 Jahren regelmäßig für Prognosen und Simulationen Anwendung findet.

The GVAR is a global Vector autoregression model of the global economy. The model was initially developed in the early 2000 by Professor Pesaran and co-authors, for the main purpose of analysing credit risk in a globalised economy. Starting from mid-2000 the model was substantially enlarged in the context of a project financed by the ECB, to comprise all major economies and the Euro area as a whole. The purpose of this version was to exploit the rich modelisation of international linkages in order to simulate and analyse global macro scenarios of high policy interest. The rich, yet manageable, specification of international linkages has stimulated a vast literature on the GVAR. Since early 2011, the basic model - and its data base - has also available on a dedicated GVAR-Toolbox website with an easy-to-use interface allowing practical applications by an extended audience, as well as more complex analysis by the expert public. The book provides an overview of the extensions and applications of the GVAR which have been developed in recent years. Such applications are grouped in three main categories: 1) International transmission and forecasting; 2) Finance applications; and 3) Regional applications. By using a language which is accessible to not econometricians, the book reaches out to the extended audience of practitioners and policy makers interested in understanding channels and impacts of international linkages.

A macroeconomic disequilibrium model is developed for the Federal Republic of Germany. Starting with a microeconomic model of firm's behaviour, the optimal dynamic adjustment of employment and investment is derived. The model of the firm is complemented by an explicite aggregation procedure which allows to derive macroeconomic relations. The model is estimated with macroeconomic data for the Federal Republic of Germany. An important feature is the consistent introduction of dynamic adjustment into a model of the firm. A new method is the particular approach of a delayed adjustment of employment and investment. The estimation results show significant underutilizations of labour and capital and indicate the importance of supply constraints for imports and exports. As the most prominent result, they reveal the importance of the slow adjustment of employment and investment for the macroeconomic situation in Germany and especially for the persistence of high unemployment in the eighties.

The large aggregates in the economy - consumption, investment, production of the domestic and the international sectors, international capital flows, financial accumulation and indebtedness - are analysed in this book as problems in time-optimisation for enterprises and households. The effects of fiscal and monetary policies along with exchange-rate variation are examined, and their simultaneous use for stabilizing demand are found to be necessary. All household decisions on consumptions, savings, and financial disposition are conditioned by uncertainty, and similarly for firms, who make more complex simultaneous decisions on production, real investment, financing, and market strategy. The marginal efficiency-of-investment function derived from these decisions is fundamentally different from the marginal productivity of capital in the neoclassical sense. An economy which grows through the accumulation of capital, increase in labor supply, and technological progress is the framework in which all of these variables move. This codetermines the allocation of factors between domestic and international production, and the development of foreign trade. The growth both of the public debt and of international investment are treated in depth.

After the transition to free economy, governments of the former Soviet republics realized that in spite of becoming a part of the shaky international economic order, their individual economic success can be assured by rational national economic policies that in addition to the fundamental law of supply and demand govern the economic mechanism sensitive to both external and internal phenomena. Originally published in Russian and now translated in English, this book by Dr. A. Ashimov and his colleagues offers a novel theory providing a numerically-justifiable approach to the solution of major economy control problems that are faced by virtually every government in the world. First, they developed and validated numerous mathematical models describing complex interactions between economic and social factors thus enabling the decision makers to foresee the outcomes of their decisions. Second, on the basis of these models the authors formulated the appropriate control problems that could be interpreted as achieving the transition to the desirable economic regimes and maintaining these regimes in spite of initial conditions and both external and internal perturbations. It should be noted that due to the inherent uncertainty introduced by the use of statistical models, the nonlinearity of the underlying phenomena and the intention to obtain the optimal solutions, the solution process becomes quite intricate and calls for the application of the most sophisticated techniques offered in advanced control theory. The authors utilized the most instrumental statistical model validation techniques; they established sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal solutions of the relevant control problems; and they skillfully combined the applications of the phase space formalism, system stability analysis, and the methods of functional analysis. Finally, they developed algorithms resulting in the optimal problem solutions, thus offering economic policy makersa dependable decision support tool. Macroeconomic Analysis and Economic Policy Based on Parametric Control offers a novel, highly mathematical approach to the solution of very realistic economy control problems. It presents a good example of the application of mathematical modeling, advanced control theory, and model-based decision making that could be adopted by researchers and graduate students specializing in economics, control, and relevant areas of research, addressing their own research problems.

A collection of papers from leading thinkers to celebrate the work of the late Wynne Godley, and his enormous contribution to the field of monetary economics. Chapters include in-depth discussions of the revolutionary economic modelling systems that Godley introduced, as well as his prescient concerns about the global financial crash.

This book was born out of a five-years research at Sonderforschungsbe­ reich 303 by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitiit Bonn and was approved as my doctoral thesis by the Rechts-und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultiit in December 1994. It was my former colleague Wolfgang Peters who had drawn my atten­ tion to overlapping-generations models and to problems of intergenerational efficiency and distribution. The subtle connection between the latter two has been fascinating me from the very beginning: redistribution of the results of free trade can become necessary from the point of view of efficiency, although no externalities hamper the development of an economy. In spite of being a matured part of economics, neoclassical growth theory had left many questions unsolved, some of them even unrecognized by a large part of our profession. I took up the challenge to contribute to the investigation of some of these thorny problems. One of these issues is the often quoted idea of the inter generational con­ tract. Although intergenerational transfers can improve intertemporal effi­ ciency, the design of pension schemes to achieve an improvement of well-being of some generations without hurting that of any other, is not an easy task in an economy with flexible prices. Quite frequently, only interest rate and growth rate are taken into account when deciding on whether a generation wins or looses.

In the last decade highly innovatory developments have taken place in theoretical economics. The new focus of interest seems to be twofold: Firstly, nonlinear models for dynamic processes of the economy are constructed to extend the scope of linear models for tlle stationary euqilibrium state; and secondly a new approach is made to solve the everlasting problem of the relation between micro-and macro-economics. The interdisciplinary field of synergetics is deeply involved in this evolution. The author has made a remarkable contribution to both foci: His application of synergetic concepts to the theory of business cycles combines a partial solution of the micro-macro-problem, namely the modelling of the macro-economic effect of the decisions of investors, producers and consumers, with the natural introduction of nonlinearities. The arising new business cycle theory can on the one side be validated by empirical evidence and on the other hand the typical behavior of nonlinear dynamic systems including the transition to deterministic chaos can be clearly demonstrated. The hope is justified that the model presented in this book is a fw·ther important step in reaching a new level of the quantitative comprehension of dynamic phenomena in the economy. Stuttgart, June 1991 Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Weidlich Foreword It is the author's objective to explain macroeconomic processes on the basis of micro­ economic decision-making behaviour. In order to achieve this goal, the concept of synergetics is presented as a method of describing dynamic phenomena in multi-com­ ponent systems with cooperative interactions between their elements.

Trying to summarize the essentials of macroeconomic theory in the wake of the financial crisis that has shaken not only Western economies but also the macroeconomic profession is no easy task. In particular, the notion that markets are self-correcting and always in equilibrium appears to have taken a heavy blow. However, the jury is still out on which areas should be considered as failures and what which constitute the future of research.The overall aim of this text is to provide a compact overview of the contributions that are currently regarded as the most important for macroeconomic analysis and to equip the reader with the essential theoretical knowledge that all advanced students in macroeconomics should be acquainted with.The result is a compact text that should act as the perfect complement to further study of macroeconomics: an introduction to the key concepts discussed in the journal literature and suitable for students from upper undergraduate level through to PhD courses.

The last twenty years have witnessed tremendous advances in the mathematical, statistical, and computational tools available to applied macroeconomists. This rapidly evolving field has redefined how researchers test models and validate theories. Yet until now there has been no textbook that unites the latest methods and bridges the divide between theoretical and applied work. Fabio Canova brings together dynamic equilibrium theory, data analysis, and advanced econometric and computational methods to provide the first comprehensive set of techniques for use by academic economists as well as professional macroeconomists in banking and finance, industry, and government. This graduate-level textbook is for readers knowledgeable in modern macroeconomic theory, econometrics, and computational programming using RATS, MATLAB, or Gauss. Inevitably a modern treatment of such a complex topic requires a quantitative perspective, a solid dynamic theory background, and the development of empirical and numerical methods--which is where Canova's book differs from typical graduate textbooks in macroeconomics and econometrics. Rather than list a series of estimators and their properties, Canova starts from a class of DSGE models, finds an approximate linear representation for the decision rules, and describes methods needed to estimate their parameters, examining their fit to the data. The book is complete with numerous examples and exercises. Today's economic analysts need a strong foundation in both theory and application. Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research offers the essential tools for the next generation of macroeconomists.

This book extends the KMG framework (Keynes, Meltzer, Goodwin) and focuses on financial issues. It integrates Tobin's macroeconomic portfolio approach and emphasizes the issue of stock-flow consistency.

How to use nonlinear dynamic models in policy analysis.Policymakers need quantitative as well as qualitative answers to pressing policy questions. Because of advances in computational methods, quantitative estimates are now derived from coherent nonlinear dynamic macroeconomic models embodying measures of risk and calibrated to capture specific characteristics of real-world situations. This text shows how such models can be made accessible and operational for confronting policy issues. The book starts with a simple setting based on market-clearing price flexibility. It gradually incorporates departures from the simple competitive framework in the form of price and wage stickiness, taxes, rigidities in investment, financial frictions, and habit persistence in consumption. Most chapters end with computational exercises; the Matlab code for the base model can be found in the appendix. As the models evolve, readers are encouraged to modify the codes from the first simple model to more complex extensions. Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy can be used by graduate students in economics and finance as well as policy-oriented researchers.

This introduction to general equilibrium modelling takes an integrated approach to the analysis of macroeconomics and finance. It provides students, practitioners, and policymakers with an easily accessible set of tools that can be used to analyze a wide range of economic phenomena. Key features: • Provides a consistent framework for understanding dynamic economic models • Introduces key concepts in finance in a discrete time setting • Develops simple recursive approach for analyzing a variety of problems in a dynamic, stochastic environment • Sequentially builds up the analysis of consumption, production, and investment models to study their implications for allocations and asset prices • Reviews business cycle analysis and the business cycle implications of monetary and international models • Covers latest research on asset pricing in overlapping generations models and on models with borrowing constraints and transaction costs • Includes end-of-chapter exercises allowing readers to monitor their understanding of each topic Online resources are available at www.cambridge.org/altug_labadie

by exploiting the disequilibrium and non linear relationships among economic aggregates. Prom an empirical point of view, this approach resemblaces the old NBER view, according to which:'the business cycle [... ] consists of - pansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, f- lowed by similairly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cyxle'(Burns and Mitchell, 1946). They add that the movement, although recurrent, is not periodic, lasting from 1 to 12 years, and it is not divisible into shorter cycles. Of course, both approaches are not free from limits and inconsistencies. In spite of the equilibrium approach having nowadays became the workhorse of modern macroeconomics, for example, their users still find enormous d- ficulties in explaining why small shocks produce large fluctuations. A well known argument in multi sector real business cycle models (see e. g. Long and Plosser, 1983) is that as the number of sectors or industries considered in the analysis becomes large, aggregate volatility must tend to zero very quickly. This result, which follows directly from the Law of Large Numbers (LLN), rests on the hypothesis that each sector is periodically buffeted with idiosyncratic, identically and independently distributed shocks to Total F- tor Productivity (TFP).

In this book, the authors treat macroeconomic models as composed of large numbers of micro-units or agents of several types and explicitly discuss stochastic dynamic and combinatorial aspects of interactions among them. In mainstream macroeconomics sound microfoundations for macroeconomics have meant incorporating sophisticated intertemporal optimization by representative agents into models. Optimal growth theory, once meant to be normative, is now taught as a descriptive theory in mainstream macroeconomic courses. In neoclassical equilibria flexible prices led the economy to the state of full employment and marginal productivities are all equated. Professors Aoki and Yoshikawa contrariwise show that such equilibria are not possible in economies with a large number of agents of heterogeneous types. They employ a set of statistical dynamical tools via continuous-time Markov chains and statistical distributions of fractions of agents by types available in the new literature of combinatorial stochastic processes, to reconstruct macroeconomic models.

Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.

This book represents an ongoing research agenda the aim of which is to contribute to the Keynesian paradigm in macroeconomics. A currently dominant research strategy in macroeconomics is based on the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model. Its essential features are the assumption of intertemporal optimizing behavior of economic agents, competitive markets and price mediated market clearing through flexible wages and prices. Contributions to Economic Analysis was established in 1952. The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information. The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics.

This is a book on stochastic dynamic macroeconomics from a Keynesian perspective. It shows that including Keynesian features in intertemporal models considerably contributes to resolve major puzzles arising in the context of the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model. It also demonstrates that including microeconomic intertemporal behavior of economic agents in macroeconomics is not inconsistent with Keynesian economics.