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Recently, the first JWST measurement of thermal emission from a rocky exoplanet was reported. The inferred dayside brightness temperature of TRAPPIST-1 b at 15 μ m is consistent with the planet having no atmosphere and therefore no mechanism by which to circulate heat to its nightside. In this Letter, we compare TRAPPIST-1 b's measured secondary eclipse depth to predictions from a suite of self-consistent radiative-convective equilibrium models in order to quantify the maximum atmospheric thickness consistent with the observation. We find that plausible atmospheres (i.e., those that contain at least 100 ppm CO _2 ) with surface pressures greater than 0.3 bar are ruled out at 3 σ , regardless of the choice of background atmosphere, and a Mars-like thin atmosphere with surface pressure 6.5 mbar composed entirely of CO _2 is also ruled out at 3 σ . Thicker atmospheres of up to 10 bar (100 bar) are consistent with the data at 1 σ (3 σ ) only if the atmosphere lacks any strong absorbers across the mid-IR wavelength range—a scenario that we deem unlikely. We additionally model the emission spectra for bare-rock planets of various compositions. We find that a basaltic, metal-rich, and Fe-oxidized surface best matches the measured eclipse depth to within 1 σ , and the best-fit gray albedo is 0.02 ± 0.11. We conclude that planned secondary eclipse observations at 12.8 μ m will serve to validate TRAPPIST-1 b's high observed brightness temperature, but are unlikely to further distinguish among the consistent atmospheric and bare-rock scenarios.

It remains to be ascertained whether sub-Neptune exoplanets primarily possess hydrogen-rich atmospheres or whether a population of H _2 O-rich water worlds lurks in their midst. Addressing this question requires improved modeling of water-rich exoplanetary atmospheres, both to predict and interpret spectroscopic observations and to serve as upper boundary conditions on interior structure calculations. Here, we present new models of hydrogen-helium-water atmospheres with water abundances ranging from solar to 100% water vapor. We improve upon previous models of high-water-content atmospheres by incorporating updated prescriptions for water self-broadening and a nonideal gas equation of state. Our model grid ( https://umd.box.com/v/water-worlds ) includes temperature–pressure profiles in radiative-convective equilibrium, along with their associated transmission and thermal emission spectra. We find that our model updates primarily act at high pressures, significantly impacting bottom-of-atmosphere temperatures, with implications for the accuracy of interior structure calculations. Upper-atmosphere conditions and spectroscopic observables are less impacted by our model updates, and we find that, under most conditions, retrieval codes built for hot Jupiters should also perform well on water-rich planets. We additionally quantify the observational degeneracies among both thermal emission and transmission spectra. We recover standard degeneracies with clouds and mean molecular weight for transmission spectra, and we find thermal emission spectra to be more readily distinguishable from one another in the water-poor (i.e., near-solar) regime.