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Background: Heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (HFmrEF) represents a heterogeneous category where phenotype, as well as prognostic assessment, remains debated. The present study explores a specific HFmrEF subset, namely those who recovered from a reduced EF (rec-HFmrEF) and, particularly, it focuses on the possible additive prognostic role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Methods and Results: We analyzed data from 4535 patients with HFrEF and 1176 patients with rec-HFmrEF from the Metabolic Exercise combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes database. The end point was cardiovascular death at 5 years. The median follow-up was 1343 days (25th–75th range 627–2403 days). Cardiovascular death occurred in 552 HFrEF and 61 rec-HFmrEF patients. The multivariate analysis confirmed an independent role of the MECKI score's variables in HFrEF (C-index = 0.744) whereas, in the rec-HFmrEF group, only age and peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) remained associated to the end point (C-index = 0.745). A peak oxygen uptake of ≤55% of predicted and a ventilatory efficiency of ≥31 resulted as the most accurate cut-off values in the outcome prediction. Conclusions: Present data support the cardiopulmonary exercise test and, particularly, the peak oxygen uptake, as a useful tool in the rec-HFmrEF prognostic assessment. A peak VO2 of ≤55% predicted and ventilatory efficiency of ≥31 might help to identify a high-risk rec-HFmrEF subgroup.

Heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction represents a heterogeneous and relatively young heart failure category accounting for nearly 20–30% of the overall heart failure population. Due to its complex phenotype, a reliable clinical picture of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction patients as well as a definite risk stratification are still relevant unsolved issues. In such a context, there is growing interest in a comprehensive functional assessment by means of a cardiopulmonary exercise test, yet considered a cornerstone in the clinical management of patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Indeed, the cardiopulmonary exercise test has also been found to be particularly useful in the heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction category, several cardiopulmonary exercise test-derived parameters being associated with a poor outcome. In particular, a recent contribution by the metabolic exercise combined with cardiac and kidney indexes research group showed an independent association between the peak oxygen uptake and pure cardiovascular mortality in a large cohort of recovered heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction patients. Contextually, the same study supplied an easy approach to identify a high-risk heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction subset by using a combination of peak oxygen uptake and ventilatory efficiency cut-off values, namely 55% of the maximum predicted and 31, respectively. Thus, looking at the above-mentioned promising results and waiting for specific trials, it is reasonable to consider cardiopulmonary exercise test assessment as part of the heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction work-up in order to identify those patients with an unfavourable functional profile who probably deserve a close clinical follow-up and, probably, more aggressive therapeutic strategies.

Aims: Exercise-derived parameters, specifically peak exercise oxygen uptake (peak VO 2 ) and minute ventilation/carbon dioxide relationship slope (VE/VCO 2 slope), have a pivotal prognostic value in heart failure (HF). It is unknown how the prognostic threshold of peak VO 2 and VE/VCO 2 slope has changed over the last 20 years in parallel with HF prognosis improvement. Methods and results: Data from 6083 HF patients (81% male, age 61 ± 13 years), enrolled in the MECKI score database between 1993 and 2015, were retrospectively analysed. By enrolment year, four groups were generated: group 1 1993–2000 (n = 440), group 2 2001–2005 (n = 1288), group 3 2006–2010 (n = 2368), and group 4 2011–2015 (n = 1987). We compared the 10-year survival of groups and analysed how the overall risk (cardiovascular death, urgent heart transplantation, or left ventricular assist device implantation) changed over time according to peak VO 2 and VE/VCO 2 slope and to major clinical and therapeutic variables. At 10 years, a progressively higher survival from group 1 to group 3 was observed, with no further improvement afterwards. A 20% risk for peak VO 2 15 mL/min/kg (95% confidence interval 16–13), 9 (11–8), 4 (4–2) and 5 (7–4) was observed in group 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, while the VE/VCO 2 slope value for a 20% risk was 32 (37–29), 47 (51–43), 59 (64–55), and 57 (63–52), respectively. Conclusions: Heart failure prognosis improved over time up to 2010 in a HF population followed by experienced centres. The peak VO 2 and VE/VCO 2 slope cut-offs identifying a definite risk progressively decreased and increased over time, respectively. The prognostic threshold of peak VO 2 and VE/VCO 2 slope must be updated whenever HF prognosis improves.

AIMS: Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) have been demonstrated to improve outcomes in reduced ejection fraction heart failure (HFrEF) patients. However, MRAs added to conventional treatment may lead to worsening of renal function and hyperkalaemia. We investigated, in a population-based analysis, the long-term effects of MRA treatment in HFrEF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data of 6046 patients included in the Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Index score dataset. Analysis was performed in patients treated (n = 3163) and not treated (n = 2883) with MRA. The study endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, urgent heart transplantation, or left ventricular assist device implantation. Ten years' survival was analysed through Kaplan-Meier, compared by log-rank test and propensity score matching. At 10 years' follow-up, the MRA-untreated group had a significantly lower number of events than the MRA-treated group (P < 0.001). MRA-treated patients had more severe heart failure (higher New York Heart Association class and lower left ventricular ejection fraction, kidney function, and peak VO2 ). At a propensity-score-matching analysis performed on 1587 patients, MRA-treated and MRA-untreated patients showed similar study endpoint values. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, MRA treatment does not affect the composite of cardiovascular death, urgent heart transplantation or left ventricular assist device implantation in a real-life setting. A meticulous patient follow-up, as performed in trials, is likely needed to match the positive MRA-related benefits observed in clinical trials

AIMS: Risk stratification in heart failure (HF) is crucial for clinical and therapeutic management. A multiparametric approach is the best method to stratify prognosis. In 2012, the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score was proposed to assess the risk of cardiovascular mortality and urgent heart transplantation. The aim of the present study was to compare the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score to that of HF Survival Score (HFSS) and Seattle HF Model (SHFM) in a large, multicentre cohort of HF patients with reduced ejection fraction. METHODS AND RESULTS: We collected data on 6112 HF patients and compared the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score, HFSS, and SHFM at 2- and 4-year follow-up for the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death, urgent cardiac transplantation, or ventricular assist device implantation. Patients were followed up for a median of 3.67 years, and 931 cardiovascular deaths, 160 urgent heart transplantations, and 12 ventricular assist device implantations were recorded. At 2-year follow-up, the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score was significantly superior [area under the curve (AUC) 0.781] to that of SHFM (AUC 0.739) and HFSS (AUC 0.723), and this relationship was also confirmed at 4 years (AUC 0.764, 0.725, and 0.720, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this cohort, the prognostic accuracy of the MECKI score was superior to that of HFSS and SHFM at 2- and 4-year follow-up in HF patients in stable clinical condition. The MECKI score may be useful to improve resource allocation and patient outcome, but prospective evaluation is needed

Background Anemia is frequent in heart failure (HF), and it is associated with higher mortality. The predictive power of established HF prognostic parameters in anemic HF patients is unknown. Methods Clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic and cardiopulmonary-exercise-test (CPET) data were analyzed in 3913 HF patients grouped according to hemoglobin (Hb) values. 248 (6%), 857 (22%), 2160 (55%) and 648 (17%) patients had very low (< 11 g/dL), low (11–12 for females, 11–13 for males), normal (12–15 for females, 13–15 for males) and high (> 15) Hb, respectively. Results Median follow-up was 1363 days (606–1883). CPETs were always performed safely. Hb was related to prognosis (Hazard ratio (HR) = 0.864). No prognostic difference was observed between normal and high Hb groups. Peak oxygen consumption (VO2), ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO2 slope), plasma sodium concentration, ejection fraction (LVEF), kidney function and Hb were independently related to prognosis in the entire population. Considering Hb groups separately, peakVO2 (very low Hb HR = 0.549, low Hb HR = 0.613, normal Hb HR = 0.618, high Hb HR = 0.542) and LVEF (very low Hb HR = 0.49, low Hb HR = 0.692, normal Hb HR = 0.697, high Hb HR = 0.694) maintained their prognostic roles. High VE/VCO2 slope was associated with poor prognosis only in patients with low and normal Hb. Conclusions Anemic HF patients have a worse prognosis, but CPET can be safely performed. PeakVO2 and LVEF, but not VE/VCO2 slope, maintain their prognostic power also in HF patients with Hb < 11 g/dL, suggesting CPET use and a multiparametric approach in HF patients with low Hb. However, the prognostic effect of an anemia-oriented follow-up is unknown.

Background: In heart failure (HF), women show better survival despite a comparatively low peak oxygen consumption (V ̇o2): this raises doubt about the accuracy of risk assessment by cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in women. Accordingly, we aimed to check (1) whether the predictive role of well-known CPET risk indexes, ie, peak V ̇o2 and ventilatory response (V ̇e/V ̇co2 slope), is sex independent and (2) if sex-related characteristics that impact outcome in HF should be considered as associations that may confound the effect of sex on survival. Methods: The study population consisted of 2985 patients with HF, 498 (17%) of whom were women, from the multicentre Metabolic Exercise Test Data Combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI): the end point was cardiovascular death within a 3-year period. Results: During the follow-up, 305 (12%) men and 39 (8%) women (P = 0.005) died, and female sex was linked to better survival on univariate analysis (P = 0.008) and independent of peak V ̇o2 and V ̇e/V ̇co2 slope on multivariate analysis. According to propensity score matching for female sex to exclude a sex selection bias and sample discrepancy, 498 men were selected: the standardized percentage bias ranged from 20.8 (P < 0.0001) to 3.3 (P = 0.667). After clinical profile harmonizing, female sex was predictive of HF at univariate analysis. Conclusions: The low peak V ̇o2 and female association with better outcome in HF might be counterfeit: the female prognostic advantage is lost when sex-specific differences are correctly taken into account with propensity score matching, suggesting that for an effective and efficient HF model, adjustment must be made for sex-related characteristics.

Background The Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score is a prognostic model to identify heart failure (HF) patients at risk for cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and urgent heart transplantation (uHT) based on 6 routine clinical parameters: hemoglobin, sodium, kidney function by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF), percentage of predicted peak oxygen consumption (VO2) and VE/VCO2 slope. Objectives MECKI score must be generalizable to be considered useful: therefore, its performance was validated in a new sequence of HF patients. Methods Both the development (MECKI-D) and the validation (MECKI-V) cohorts were composed of consecutive HF patients with LVEF < 40% able to perform a symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The CVM or uHT rates were analyzed at one, two and three years in both cohorts: all patients with a censoring time shorter than the scheduled follow-up were excluded, while those with events occurring after 1, 2 and 3 years were considered as censored. Results MECKI-D and MECKI-V consisted of 2009 and 992 patients, respectively. MECKI-V patients had a higher LVEF, higher peak VO2 and lower VE/VCO2 slope, higher prescription of beta-blockers and device therapy: after the 3-year follow-up, CVM or uHT occurred in 206 (18%) MECKI-D and 44 (13%) MECKI-V patients (p < 0.000), respectively. MECKI-V AUC values at one, two and three years were 0.81 ± 0.04, 0.76 ± 0.04, and 0.80 ± 0.03, respectively, not significantly different from MECKI-D. Conclusions MECKI score preserves its predictive ability in a HF population at a lower risk.

Aims Obesity has been found to be protective in heart failure (HF), a finding leading to the concept of an obesity paradox. We hypothesized that a preserved cardiorespiratory fitness in obese HF patients may affect the relationship between survival and body mass index (BMI) and explain the obesity paradox in HF. Methods and results A total of 4623 systolic HF patients (LVEF 31.5 ± 9.5%, BMI 26.2 ± 3.6 kg/m2) were recruited and prospectively followed in 24 Italian HF centres belonging to the MECKI Score Research Group. Besides full clinical examination, patients underwent maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test at study enrolment. Median follow-up was 1113 (553-1803) days. The study population was divided according to BMI (<25, 25-30, >30 to ≤35 kg/m2) and predicted peak oxygen consumption (peak VO2, <50%, 50-80%, >80%). Study endpoints were all-cause and cardiovascular deaths including urgent cardiac transplant. All-cause and cardiovascular deaths occurred in 951 (28.6%, 57.4 per person-years) and 802 cases (17.4%, 48.4 per 1000 person-years), respectively. In the high BMI groups, several prognostic parameters presented better values [LVEF, peak VO2, ventilation/carbon dioxide slope, renal function, and haemoglobin (P < 0.01)] compared with the lower BMI groups. Both BMI and peak VO2 were significant positive predictors of longer survival: both higher BMI and peak VO2 groups showed lower mortality (P < 0.001). At multivariable analysis and using a matching procedure (age, gender, LVEF, and peak VO2), the protective role of BMI disappeared. Conclusion Exercise tolerance affects the relationship between BMI and survival. Cardiorespiratory fitness mitigates the obesity paradox observed in HF patients.

BACKGROUND: In patients with heart failure (HF), during maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test, anaerobic threshold (AT) is not always identified. We evaluated whether this finding has a prognostic meaning. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited and prospectively followed up, in 14 dedicated HF units, 3058 patients with systolic (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) HF in stable clinical conditions, New York Heart Association class I to III, who underwent clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic, and cardiopulmonary exercise test investigations at study enrollment. We excluded 921 patients who did not perform a maximal exercise, based on lack of achievement of anaerobic metabolism (peak respiratory quotient ≤1.05). Primary study end point was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent cardiac transplant, and secondary end point was all-cause death. Median follow-up was 3.01 (1.39-4.98) years. AT was identified in 1935 out of 2137 patients (90.54%). At multivariable logistic analysis, failure in detecting AT resulted significantly in reduced peak oxygen uptake and higher metabolic exercise and cardiac and kidney index score value, a powerful prognostic composite HF index (P<0.001). At multivariable analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with primary study end point: peak oxygen uptake (% pred; P<0.001; hazard ratio [HR]=0.977; confidence interval [CI]=0.97-0.98), ventilatory efficiency slope (P=0.01; HR=1.02; CI=1.01-1.03), hemoglobin (P<0.05; HR=0.931; CI=0.87-1.00), left ventricular ejection fraction (P<0.001; HR=0.948; CI=0.94-0.96), renal function (modification of diet in renal disease; P<0.001; HR=0.990; CI=0.98-0.99), sodium (P<0.05; HR=0.967; CI=0.94-0.99), and AT nonidentification (P<0.05; HR=1.41; CI=1.06-1.89). Nonidentification of AT remained associated to prognosis also when compared with metabolic exercise and cardiac and kidney index score (P<0.01; HR=1.459; CI=1.09-1.10). Similar results were obtained for the secondary study e

Objectives: We built and validated a new heart failure (HF) prognostic model which integrates cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameters with easy-to-obtain clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables. Background: HF prognostication is a challenging medical judgment, constrained by a magnitude of uncertainty. Methods: Our risk model was derived from a cohort of 2716 systolic HF patients followed in 13 Italian centers. Median follow up was 1041 days (range 4–5185). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis with stepwise selection of variables was used, followed by cross-validation procedure. The study end-point was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent heart transplant. Results: Six variables (hemoglobin, Na+, kidney function by means of MDRD, left ventricle ejection fraction