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This paper examines the relationship between the prevalence of the urgent and emergency care vanguard (UEC) at the local authority level and their delayed transfers of care (DTOC) rates in England. We created a novel measure of exposure to UEC vanguards based on the residence of patients who used UEC partner hospitals, and we group it by the level of exposure (high, medium, low, none). We use this measure to estimate the effect of UEC vanguards on DTOC rates and then on DTOC rates by sector and a range of reasons associated with the delay. The analysis was run at the local authority level (LA) using quarterly data from NHS England for 150 English LAs from the years 2012–2017. We find a statistically significant UEC exposure effect of around 0.3% reduction in total DTOC to a 1% increase of UEC exposure (equivalent to 775 DTOC days per local authority per quarter in high UEC exposure areas), a result robust to various specification checks. Nonacute sector DTOC was found to be more responsive to UEC vanguards in comparison to acute sector DTOC (0.4% and 0.3% reductions, respectively, to every 1% of UEC exposure). DTOC due to social care was particularly responsive to UEC exposure (0.7% reduction to 1% exposure). DTOC reasons associated with the highest impact of UEC exposure were as follows: awaiting a care package at own home, waiting for further NHS nonacute care, and completion of assessment (reductions of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.3% to 1% exposure, respectively). All three reasons were originally associated with the largest number of DTOC days. These findings further advocate for UEC vanguards having been successful at alleviating the pressure on hospitals related to DTOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unemployment impairs individuals' well-being and health and there is some empirical evidence showing that macroeconomic conditions can moderate these effects. This paper goes a step further and investigates differences in how macroeconomic indicators of European countries' economic situation relate to individual subjective health and well-being, and also moderate the relationship between individual labour market exclusion and these outcomes across age groups: young individuals (aged 15–29), prime working age adults (aged 30–49, base category) and pre-retirement age adults (aged 50–64). We used two different macroeconomic indicators to define macroeconomic situation: country-level unemployment rate and gross domestic product (GDP). Both indicators were disaggregated into long-term economic trend and business cycle shocks using Hodrick–Prescott filtering to allow distinguishing between expected and unexpected change in macroeconomic circumstances. We used the European Social Survey individual-level data from 35 European countries for 2002–2014. Multi-level analysis with three levels were run for men and women separately. Results revealed differences in how individual-level unemployment related to well-being depending on the age group, with pre-retirement age group adults' health and well-being suffering the most. Also, macroeconomic indicators were found to moderate the relationship between individual-level unemployment and subjective health and well-being with some noticeable differences between age groups, and with GDP trend having the most sizeable influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore the effect of past alcohol consumption frequency on formal and informal long-term care (LTC) use in old age and explore the different channels through which it may affect LTC use. The existing literature has mainly focused on risk factors associated with a nursing home entry, but this evidence is outdated, not UK-focused, and does not look into other types of care, such as informal care. The results of this study will help in modelling the future demand for various types of care and the corresponding public spending. We use the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) (2002–2017) dataset to conduct longitudinal, individual-level analysis. We explore how the previous frequency of alcohol consumption affects formal and informal care use. We focus on people aged 65 and over with no previous LTC use and run regressions with and without instrumental variables (IV) to estimate how alcohol consumption patterns in the previous wave (2 years before) affect formal and informal care use. For IV regressions, we use the polygenic score for alcohol use, available for a subsample of ELSA respondents, as an instrument while also accounting for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle choices, and health conditions. The main IV estimates suggest that frequent alcohol consumption has a weakly significant positive effect on the onset of formal LTC care use compared to none/rare drinking. This relationship diminishes and is not statistically significant when we directly control for health status. We find no statistically significant effect towards informal LTC use. These results contrast with the estimates without IV, which suggest that frequent alcohol consumption is negatively associated with informal care use and no or weakly negative association with formal care use. Our findings suggest that unobserved confounding is important when studying the relationship between alcohol consumption and LTC. We hypothesise that primarily alcohol effects LTC through its adverse effect on health. In addition, unobserved factors like preferences towards seeking care, social behaviour may be related to alcohol consumption and affect access to care. We speculate alcohol may have a damaging effect on personal relationships and could indicate the burden eventually falling on formal care. In as far as the polygenic score IV can account for unobserved preference-behaviour differences, the results (weakly) support the hypothesis that these latter processes are relevant, especially for informal care use. • Frequent drinking increases the probability of starting formal care use. • Alcohol was found to affect care use through the health channel. • Negative, even if insignificant, link between alcohol and informal care could indicate damage to personal relations. • Alcohol use is likely influenced by unobservable factors that also drive care use. • Polygenic score for alcohol intake is a good instrumental variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we examine the relationship between formal care provision and informal care receipt from within the household for people over 75 years old using data from the British Household Panel Survey between 1991 and 2009. To address potential concerns about endogeneity of formal care we use a 'spatial lag' instrumental variable. We find a negative and statistically significant effect of formal care provision on informal care receipt from within the household, suggesting a substantial degree of substitutability between these two modes of care. These findings provide grounds for estimates of savings in the cost of informal care enabled by spending on formal care, which is important in light of the effects of the caregiving burden and associated responsibilities on carer's labour market participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Delayed transfers of care (DTOC) of patients from hospital to alternative care settings are a longstanding problem in England and elsewhere, having negative implications for patient outcomes and costs to health and social care systems. In England, a large proportion of DTOC are attributed to a delay in receiving suitable home care. We estimated the relationship between home care supply and delayed discharges in England from 2011 to 2016. Methods: Reduced form fixed effects OLS models of annual DTOC attributed to social care at local authority (LA)-level from 2011 to 2016 were estimated, using both number of days and patients as the dependent variable. A count of home care providers at LA-level was utilised as the measure of home care supply. Demand (e.g. population, health, income) and alternative supply (e.g. care home places, local unemployment) measures were included as controls. Instrumental Variable (IV) methods were used to control for any simultaneity in the relationship between DTOC and home care supply. Models for DTOC attributed to NHS and awaiting a home care package were used to assess the adequacy of the main model. Results: We found that home care supply significantly reduced DTOC. Each extra provider per 10 sq. km. in the average local authority decreased DTOC by 14.9% (equivalent to 449 days per year), with a per provider estimate of 1.6% (48 days per year). We estimated cost savings to the public sector over the period of analysis from reduced DTOC due to increased home care provision between £73 m and £274 m (95% CI: £0.24 m to £545.3 m), with a per provider estimate of savings per year of £12,600 (95% CI: £900 to £24,500). Conclusion: DTOC are reduced in LAs with better supply of home care, and this reduces costs to the NHS. Further savings could be achieved through improved outcomes of people no longer delayed. Appropriate levels of social care supply are required to ensure efficiency in spending for the public sector overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Delayed transfers of care (DTOC) of patients from hospital to alternative care settings are a longstanding problem in England and elsewhere, having negative implications for patient outcomes and costs to health and social care systems. In England, a large proportion of DTOC are attributed to a delay in receiving suitable home care. We estimated the relationship between home care supply and delayed discharges in England from 2011 to 2016.Methods: Reduced form fixed effects OLS models of annual DTOC attributed to social care at local authority (LA)-level from 2011 to 2016 were estimated, using both number of days and patients as the dependent variable. A count of home care providers at LA-level was utilised as the measure of home care supply. Demand (e.g. population, health, income) and alternative supply (e.g. care home places, local unemployment) measures were included as controls. Instrumental Variable (IV) methods were used to control for any simultaneity in the relationship between DTOC and home care supply. Models for DTOC attributed to NHS and awaiting a home care package were used to assess the adequacy of the main model.Results: We found that home care supply significantly reduced DTOC. Each extra provider per 10 sq. km. in the average local authority decreased DTOC by 14.9% (equivalent to 449 days per year), with a per provider estimate of 1.6% (48 days per year). We estimated cost savings to the public sector over the period of analysis from reduced DTOC due to increased home care provision between £73 m and £274 m (95% CI: £0.24 m to £545.3 m), with a per provider estimate of savings per year of £12,600 (95% CI: £900 to £24,500).Conclusion: DTOC are reduced in LAs with better supply of home care, and this reduces costs to the NHS. Further savings could be achieved through improved outcomes of people no longer delayed. Appropriate levels of social care supply are required to ensure efficiency in spending for the public sector overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unnecessarily prolonged stays in hospitals can have negative impacts on patients and present avoidable costs to health and social care systems. This paper presents the qualitative findings of a multi‐methods study of the social care causes of delayed transfers of care (DTOC) for older people in England. The quantitative strand of this study found that DTOC are significantly affected by homecare supply. In this paper, we explore in depth how and why social care capacity factors lead to delays, from the perspectives of those working within the system. We examined the local transfer arrangements in six English local authority (LA) sites that were purposively sampled to include a range of DTOC performance and LA characteristics. Between March and December 2018, 52 professionals involved in arranging or facilitating discharge from hospitals in these sites provided qualitative data, primarily through semi‐structured interviews. Topics included discharge teams and processes, strategic issues and perceived causes of delays. The thematic analysis uncovered the nuances behind the causes of DTOC previously categorised broadly as 'provider capacity' and 'patient choice'. In particular, our analysis highlights the lack of fit between available provision and the needs of people leaving hospital (theme 1); workforce inconsistencies (theme 2) and a myth of patient choice (theme 3). We are now at a turning point in the development of policy to reduce DTOC in the English system, with the full implications of a new national discharge to assess programme yet to be seen. Our research shows the significance of the alignment of service capacity, including the type and location of provision, with the needs and preferences of those leaving hospital. As the new system becomes established, attendance to such nuances behind blockages in the system will be more important than ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]