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В статье рассматривается такая фаза взаимодействия цивилизаций, как столкновение. Актуальность ее изучения связана с тем, что в настоящее время происходит столкновение двух враждующих мегацивилизаций — техногенного мира (Запад), основанного на технологическом прогрессе, кардинально меняющем культурную и мировоззренческую составляющую общества, и традиционного мира (Не-Запад), ориентированного на передаваемые из поколения в поколение традиции и нормы. В исследовании рассматривается история формирования концепции цивилизаций от характеристики стадии развития общества, следующей за дикостью и варварством, до формирования представлений о мегацивилизациях. Анализ философии насилия в контексте развития цивилизаций показал, что благосостояние техногенной цивилизации базируется на жестокости и несправедливости в период её формирования и что её развитие, основанное на технологическом прогрессе, высвобождавшем рабочую силу, стало возможно за счет использования таких их «утилизаций», как казни, эмиграция в Новый Свет, поддержание высокой преступности, колониальные захваты и низкая продолжительность жизни. Однако экономическое развитие традиционных (незападных) цивилизаций на фоне роста их цивилизационного самосознания привело к происходящему в настоящее время столкновению цивилизаций, которое грозит человечеству не просто глобальным конфликтом, но и его полным уничтожением. Показано, что геополитический аспект происходящего столкновения связан с очередным витком сменяемости мировых центров капитала в соответствии с циклами Арриги, который в XXI в. переживает новую веху своего развития, связанную с угасанием гегемонии США и формированием нового лидера. Практическая значимость исследования связана с изучением такого механизма взаимодействия цивилизаций, как столкновение, и перспектив перехода к новому миру, основанному на многополярности и идеологии диалога., The article deals with such a phase of interaction of civilizations as collision. The relevance of the study is associated with the fact that at present there is a clash of two warring megacivilizations — the technogenic world (West), based on technological progress, radically changing the cultural and worldview component of society, and the traditional world (NonWest),focusedontraditionsandnormspasseddownfromgeneration to generation. The study examines the history of the formation of the concept of civilizations from the characteristics of the stage of development of society, following the savagery and barbarism, to the formation of ideas about megacivilizations. Analysis of the philosophy of violence in the context of the development of civilizationsshowsthatthe well-beingofthe technogeniccivilization was based on brutality and injustice during its formation and that its development, based on technological progress that freed up labor, was made possible by the use of their “dispositions” such as executions, emigration to the New World, maintenance of high crime, colonial occupations and low life span. However, the economic development of traditional(non-western) civilizations against the background of the growth of their civilizational selfawareness has led to the current clash of civilizations, which threatens humanity not just with a global conflict, but with its complete destruction. It is shown that the geopolitical aspect of the ongoing clash is associated with another round of change of the world centers of capital in accordance with the Systemic Cycles Accumulation of Arrighi, which in the XXI century is experiencing a new milestone in its development, associated with the fading of the US hegemony and the formation of a new leader. The practical significance of the research is related to the study of such a mechanism of interaction of civilizations as collision, and the prospects for the transition to a new world based on multipolarity and the ideology of dialogue., Бизнес. Образование. Право, Выпуск 1 (62) 2023, Pages 1-7

We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.

The paper examines the true source of economic growth, which allowed “break ing” the regime of the Malthusian trap (poverty trap) that had existed for thousands of years. The researchers hypothesize that the driver of the destruction of a stagnation regime and the for mation of a stable economic growth regime instead is the so-called special sector of the economy characterized in an extremely high return on capital, more than 100% per annum. The authors search for concrete examples in both the history of Modern Europe and the modern world economy to identify special sector’s segments and determine the rates of return to wealth in them. The methodological basis of the research includes the models of economic growth and Thomas Piketty’s concept of a connection between the economic growth rate and the rate of return to wealth. The application of the method of stylized examples allows considering the essence of the studied phenomenon in the most refined form on the basis of a quantitative assessment. As a re sult of the study, the researchers discover main types of businesses and specify their profitability for the Modern Age (trade in spices, tea, tulips, slave trade, privateering, etc.) and the present (film industry, oil production, pharmaceutical production, production of digital devices, etc.). The study reliably confirms the existence of the special sector of the economy, thus providing a basis for a deeper understanding of the mechanism of economic growth.

This paper is a reaction to the polemical article by Andrei Vernikov, How much substance is there behind the concept of "Institutional Trap"? (Journal of Institutional Studies, 2020, 12(2), pp. 25–37). This article concludes that there is no necessary scientific rigor and constructiveness of the concept of "institutional trap" (IT), and therefore it is proposed to introduce a kind of academic ostracism in the form of a scientific moratorium on this concept in the form of its ban on the pages of academic journals and in the programs of training courses. The proposed article shows that the term IT has all the properties of strictness when defined at the verbal, i.e. the most generalized, level. At the same time, it is demonstrated that when switching to specific model constructions, the concept of IT acquires mathematical rigor and applied operationality, which is confirmed by a large number of IT models developed in Russia and abroad. The article also refutes A. Vernikov's Lemma, according to which there is no economic or social phenomenon in modern Russia that cannot be declared an "institutional trap". This is done using such striking counterexamples as the liquidity trap and the Malthusian trap, which do not fall under the definition of IT. Special attention is paid to identifying differences in terms of IT, "Institute dysfunction" and "lock-in effect". Typical errors in the use of the term IT are demonstrated and it is proved that the fault for this lies with the authors who produce errors, and not with the term that does not contain any specific flaws. The thesis is put forward that the purity of the terminological field of institutional analysis should be provided by the expert community at the stage of reviewing articles, and not by methods of prohibiting scientific concepts. It is concluded that the popularity of the term IT is due to the fact that it is both a strict scientific concept and a beautiful metaphor.

We develop a simple Malthusian growth model with continuous productivity growth and derive the stationary steady-state equilibrium. We show that linearisation around the steady-state gives an empirically tractable model of Malthusian wage and population behaviour using the familiar concept of β-convergence. Our empirical strategy addresses the concern in the literature over model identification and inconsistent parameter estimates. Based on newly constructed population data, we estimate wage and population growth models using panel data for up to 17 countries from 900CE to 1870CE. Our results provide the first time-series evidence of a strong Malthusian trap that was pervasive across countries and time before the 19th century industrial revolution.

Soviet society contributed to the growth of workers’ social rights. The right to housing, the right to free education and free medical care, the right to rest and leisure — all these are expensive social rights that were established as a social standard in the USSR and contributed to the improvement of the position of the working man around the world. Oligarchic state capitalism means replacing expensive social rights with “cheap” political rights. Советское общество способствовало росту социальных прав трудящихся. Право на жилье, право на бесплатное образование и бесплатное медицинское обслуживание, право на отдых — все это дорогие социальные права, которые были установлены как социальный стандарт в СССР и содействовали улучшению положения человека труда во всем мире. Олигархический государственный капитализм означает замену дорогих социальных прав на «дешевые» политические права.

Malthus believed that rising real wages encouraged earlier marriage, higher fertility and a growing population. But diminishing returns in agriculture meant that an organic economy could not keep pace. Excess labour and rising food prices drove wages down and brought population growth to a halt. Studies testing this hypothesis have focussed on the relationship between population growth and men's wages, typically overlooking women and children's economic activities and influence on demographic outcomes. New daily and annual wage series, including women and children, enable these missing actors to be incorporated into a more complete account of Malthus's hypothesis. New findings emerge: the demographic reaction to wage changes was gendered. Early-modern bachelors responded to rising male wages by marrying earlier, whereas spinsters responded to rising female wages by delaying marriage. Our evidence suggests that women played a key role in England's low-fertility demographic regime and escape from the Malthusian trap. More tentatively, we consider the demographic regime in medieval England. Although marriage was related to earnings, the size of the population was a forceful determinant of economic outcomes. While superficially similar in terms of the prevalence of late marriage and low nuptiality, this regime was consolidated by poverty and social control absent the female agency of the later era.

Understanding the causes of the Industrial Revolution, namely the process of transition from a Malthusian equilibrium to modern economic growth, has been the subject of passionate debate. This paper contributes to insights into the process of industrialization and the demographic transition that followed. We present a model that proposes a mechanism behind the claim that landed elites had strong incentives to block education reforms. By applying the theory of interest groups to landownership, landowners could delay education. However, they could not prevent its introduction indefinitely since gains for the landed elites derived from education would at some moment surpass the costs associated with them. We also sustain that improvements in agricultural productivity prior to the Industrial Revolution may have induced a positive impact on the landowners’ decision to educate the population, which led to an earlier introduction of education reforms. The conclusions fit the patterns of the late boom of industrialization and demographic transition and help explain why some countries (e.g., Britain and The Netherlands) had accelerated education reforms and a faster process of industrialization than most continental countries. A theoretical model is presented, and numerical simulations are exhibited to illustrate our claims.

The article considers reasons for radical mass forms of social protest in the context of the ‘Malthusian trap’ and structural-demographic theory of Jack Goldstone, which have become popular in the last two decades. The author critically evaluates these two conceptions and comes to the conclusion that the principles they underline are just concomitant factors, i.e. additional risk factors for political systems and regimes, rather than causes of radical mass forms of social protest. The author suggests a method of analysis that consists of studying the circumstances, i.e. the wide historical context, in which mass forms of social protest usually emerge, and provides a large number of illustrative examples. The scientific approach to the identification of social-historical determinants of radical forms of social protest implies that if something is a reason/cause of an event, then this reason/cause must be present whenever there is such an event both alone or within a complex of concomitant factors. The ‘Malthusian trap’ and demographic factors cannot be traced in all manifestations of radical mass forms of social protest in modern and contemporary history. Moreover, the ‘Malthusian trap’ and demographic pressure on the economy and social system do not always lead to mass forms of social protest. The wave of radical forms of social protest in the last decade, i.e. the so-called ‘color revolutions’, ‘Arab spring’, protest actions in France, England and the USA, once again confirms the relevance of the author’s approach and the importance of critical study of the traditional conceptions.

International audience; This article presents a simple economic theory (and associated evidence) to explain how some early agriculturally based preindustrial societies developed despite most of their population being subject to Malthusian dynamics. Their development depended on a dominant class limiting its membership and extracting an economic surplus which it could use (among other things) to accumulate capital and advance knowledge thereby adding to this surplus. The evolution of urban centers facilitated this development process. Extraction of the agricultural surplus prevented increased population from dissipating this surplus and curtailing development. Examples are given of early economically extractive and non-inclusive societies which were long lasting. Their persistence is at odds with the views of some contemporary development economists about the development prospects of these types of societies.

Mining pools, the main components of the Bitcoin network, dominate the computing resources and play essential roles in network security and performance aspects. Although many existing measurements of the Bitcoin network are available, little is known about the details of mining pool behaviors (e.g., empty blocks, mining revenue and transaction collection strategies) and their effects on the Bitcoin end users (e.g., transaction fees, transaction delay and transaction acceptance rate). This paper aims to fill this gap with a systematic study of mining pools. We traced over 1.56 hundred thousand blocks (including about 257 million historical transactions) from February 2016 to January 2019 and collected over 120.25 million unconfirmed transactions from March 2018 to January 2019. Then we conducted a board range of measurements on the pool evolutions, labeled transactions (blocks) as well as real-time network traffics, and discovered new interesting observations and features. Specifically, our measurements show the following. 1) A few mining pools entities continuously control most of the computing resources of the Bitcoin network. 2) Mining pools are caught in a prisoner's dilemma where mining pools compete to increase their computing resources even though the unit profit of the computing resource decreases. 3) Mining pools are stuck in a Malthusian trap where there is a stage at which the Bitcoin incentives are inadequate for feeding the exponential growth of the computing resources. 4) The market price and transaction fees are not sensitive to the event of halving block rewards. 5) The block interval of empty blocks is significantly lower than the block interval of non-empty blocks. 6) Feerate plays a dominating role in transaction collection strategy for the top mining pools. Our measurements and analysis help to understand and improve the Bitcoin network., 13 pages

The ban today on “population talk” (Diana Coole) by the liberal western traditions as unethical has the inverse effect in a post-‘tipping point’ world defined by future population culls of peripheries. It turns out that this ban not only advances the outcome the liberal tradition would most avoid but blinds it from seeing what is now underway before its eyes—a ‘species split’ engineered by the hyper-elite with one eye to the coming climate catastrophism. It turns out that the ban conceals that the western anthropos had from the first been defined as arche-eugenicist and extinctivist. This in turn illuminates the puzzling non-response of global leadership to the prospect of irreversible ecocide.

This article shows how John Maynard Keynes's lifelong commitment to eugenics was deeply embedded in his political, economic, and philosophical work. At the turn of the century, eugenics seemed poised to grant industrial nations unprecedented control over their own future, but that potential depended on contested understandings of the biological mechanisms of inheritance. Early in his career, Keynes helped William Bateson, Britain's chief proponent of Mendelian genetics, analyze problems in human heredity. Simultaneously, Keynes publicly opposed the efforts by Francis Galton and Karl Pearson to study inheritance through statistical biometry. For Keynes, this conflict was morally laden: Mendelism incorporated the only ethical theory of uncertainty, while biometry rested on false and dangerous concepts. This early study of heredity shaped Keynes's visions of industrial democracy after 1918. Liberals looked for a system of societal and economic management to engineer an escape from the postwar Malthusian trap. Britain's economic plight, Keynes argued, was rooted in the hereditary weaknesses of its leadership. Successful technocratic liberalism would depend on control over the quality as well as quantity of human beings. Ultimately, in his essay “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” Keynes predicted that effective eugenic management would bring about capitalism's end.

Was the Roman world caught in a Malthusian trap? In this survey, I draw on a wide range of evidence – from archeological data to city size estimates – to argue that Malthusian constraints were not binding over long periods. Market-size effects allowed the Roman economy to grow substantially in per capita terms, despite population growth. I place these observations in the context of recent debates and contributions by both ancient historians and – for the long run – by economists.

Recent literature on developing countries has revived interest in structural change involving the reallocation of resources from agriculture to industry. Here, we focus on the first such historically important structural transformation in which some parts of Europe escaped from the Malthusian trap centuries earlier than the Industrial Revolution, while others stagnated. There is as yet no consensus as to the causes of this First Great Divergence. The paper advances the thesis that what lies at the root of different paths is the type of property rights inherited. As populations everywhere in Europe recovered from the catastrophes of the late medieval period, what mattered for the direction taken was the size of the landlord class and their landholdings. In Western Europe where peasant proprietors tilled small plots, increases in population levels led to lower real wages. Given the low incomes of landlords and peasants, demand for manufactured goods remained low. At the other extreme, in eastern Europe, second serfdom kept wages low, and rents high. Yet given the small size of the land-owning class, these rents could not generate enough demand for high-end manufacturing processes either. Northwestern Europe, being in the middle in terms both of the size of the landholding classes and their properties, prospered as wages failed to decline even when population levels rapidly rose. Combined demand from landlords and workers kindled an expansion of the manufacturing sector.

Subsequent to Harper’s review essay centered on Brooke’s Climate Change and the Course of Global History: A Rough Journey, Brooke concedes that he could have focused more attention on the problem of the Malthusian trap. He stresses, nevertheless, that his reservations regarding the concept of Malthusian crises in pre-industrial societies are well placed, given the concept’s prominence in the large-scale environmental histories written during the past several decades. Turning to the impact of climate change in late classical antiquity, Brooke discusses established and new evidence for increasing, sometimes catastrophic, precipitation from the Mediterranean area into central Asia after a.d. 500 and after 1250, as a result of shifts toward the negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation. He also surveys the evidence for emerging arguments that this cooling-driven precipitation may have triggered outbreaks of bubonic plague in Central Asia.

In the 1950s the University of Durham was involved in a number of separate externally-funded projects that were aimed at assessing Malta's potential for development after it became independent from the United Kingdom. Following a pilot study, a group led by W.B. Fisher of the Department of Geography together with a team from the University of Malta, obtained what at the time were substantial funds from the Colonial Office's Colonial Economic Research Committee (CERC). Concurrently K.C. Dunham, Head of the Department of Geology, successfully obtained support from British Petroleum to carry out a geological survey, while a soil survey was separately commissioned. As well as marking the first of what was to become an established tradition of applied development projects in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, the Durham Geography Department also used its growing profile of external funding to stimulate an expansion of both its teaching and its research, so as to become one of the largest departments in the United Kingdom. Reflecting the zeitgeist of the time, Fisher and his colleagues viewed applied research, not only as an academic exercise but also as a route to human betterment, and perceived the researchers' task as providing information and policy options upon which decisions makers may formulate policy. They eschewed any attempt to fully consider different development strategies. However, some younger researchers in their later outputs and doctoral theses adopted a more critical approach about the options for Malta's future. The principal issue raised by Durham team was a concern that post-independence Malta was facing a Malthusian trap in which the islands would not have a sufficiently productive resource base to support its growing population. Over the past six decades the trap has been avoided because of a growing economy, but today pressures of people on resources are once more acute and a case is made for a second land-use survey.

The nineteenth century was a major watershed in the Big History storyline in general and in the history of globalization in particular. This watershed is related to the modern Technological Revolution that brought profound changes to nearly all spheres of human life. In this chapter, we will touch upon some of the changes that were most relevant to globalization and/or evolved into truly global processes that changed humanity. These include the Industrial Revolution, the changed patterns of global technological dynamics (the emergence of modern technological paradigms) and global economic development (the appearance of global economic cycles and global crises, as well as the impact of some particular breakthrough innovations in transport (railways, steamships) and information transmission (the telegraph). New technologies formed new material networks, which gradually spanned the whole world, leading global connectivity to a totally new level. These newly emerged networks were filled with new types of content, both material (e.g., bulk agricultural goods) and non-material (European-style modernity itself). The acceleration of technological development and increases in global connectivity greatly contributed to the World System core countries’ successful escape from the Malthusian trap. They also played an important role in the start of the global demographic transition, which encompassed the World System core countries in the nineteenth century.

Energy was one of the keys to the remarkable increase in English GDP between 1650 and 1700. Increased per head physical activity and basal metabolic rate led to increased energy consumption. In response, subsistence wages, productivity, wages and incomes increased. Malthusian adjustment explains only 50 per cent of the increase in calorie intake, the other 50 per cent is associated with higher energy consumption. Non-agricultural wages began to differ from agricultural wages. British economic development occurred everywhere, in the city and in the countryside. This approach opens new perspectives to the debate between enclosures and open fields and why underemployment became common among the philosophers' British debates.

Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints. (JEL D15, I12, I15, J13, J16, O15, O47)

Over the past two decades, there have been numerous attempts in economic theory to model the historical regime of a Malthusian trap as well as the transition to growth in one coherent framework, or in other words, a unified growth theory. However, in most of these models, an important effect suggested by Malthus has been frequently omitted. By including what he had called "the great preventive check" in the traditional Malthusian model which is based on the principle of population, the principle of diminishing returns and the principle of labor division, the transition can be modelled in a very simple dynamic macroeconomic framework. The aim of this paper is to first construct and calibrate the suggested classical model and to eventually employ a conventional VAR-Method to provide evidence of the above principles using country-specific annual historical data on crude birth rate, crude death rate and GDP per capita growth rate. As a result, it is argued that emerging economies follow a universal macroeconomic pattern of development. A decreasing death rate is succeeded by a decreasing birth rate which at the same time induces GDP per capita to rise sustainably. The correspondingly advanced microeconomic theory suggests that increasing life expectancy tends to create a demographic structure that is much less prone to overpopulation.

The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the “North African path” and are likely to encounter serious social problems before they achieve success in making a transition in their fertility rates, and (iii) East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the “Bangladeshi path” and will not achieve substantial fertility declines in the foreseeable future. The Bangladeshi path implies the introduction of compulsory universal secondary education, serious family planning programs, and a rise in the legal age for marriage with parental consent. Such measures should of course be accompanied by the substantial increases in agricultural labor productivity concomitant with a decline in the percentage of the population employed in agriculture.

In spite of two centuries of extensive debate, a consistent framework of the classical theory of population on which economists can universally agree has not been established. This means that either the theory lacks consistency or it has been misunderstood in important ways. This paper attempts to settle this issue by arguing that the latter was the case, revealing prevailing misconceptions. Since a large amount of these misconceptions most probably arose from the lack of a consistent nomenclature, the paper intends to clarify the classical theory of population by employing unambiguous definitions of the principle of population, the Malthusian trap, positive checks and preventive checks to population. The classical theory of population can then be applied to analyze the transition from economic stagnation to economic growth. As a result, numerous current theories trying to explain the transition to growth that are based on an increase of production will prove secondary when compared to the great preventive check.

The main achievement of this paper is to introduce a new construction of population data for the territory within the current borders of Turkey. The broad coverage of the reconstruction includes the population in the 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th and early 20th centuries. I also provide entirely new population estimates for specifc years in previous five centuries. This contributes to the literature since it allows to provide new estimates supporting the existence of a Malthusian cycle. In the paper, I first summarize the economic history of the Ottoman Empire. Second, I explain how I construct population estimates for the territory of interest for the specific years. I also compare my population estimates to those of other historians. The end result is twofold: First, the demographic features of the Empire generally support the Malthusian view, and, second, the Turkish economy leaves its Malthusian trap in the late 19th century.

The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.

The development process and the demographic changes that are a central element of it explain both the nearly two centuries of increasing income inequality prior to 2000 and the reversal of this trend that followed. There are at least four phases of the development process: (1) Malthusian pre‐development, (2) initial growth, (3) improved productivity, and (4) receding growth. Prior to the industrial revolution, the entire world was in the Malthusian Phase 1. During 1820–1950, about 20 countries, mostly in Western Europe, North America, and Oceania, moved out of Phase 1 and began to grow more rapidly. But, per capita income levels in the rest of the world continued to stagnate and worldwide income inequality widened continuously for at least 150 years following the Industrial Revolution. Around 1960, developing countries began to escape the Malthusian trap and move into Phase 2 of development. By the latter part of the 20th century, many developing countries were achieving growth rates equal to or greater than the high‐income countries, slowing the rise in inequality. By 2000–2015 most developing countries were in either Phases 2 or 3 of development, while most of the high‐income countries were moving into Phase 4, leading to a sharp reduction in worldwide income inequality. The recent reductions in worldwide income inequality are likely to continue in the near term because of the continuation of the more favorable demographic changes in developing compared to high‐income countries.

Over the past two decades, there have been numerous attempts in economic theory to model the historical regime of a Malthusian trap as well as the transition to growth in one coherent framework, or in other words, a unified growth theory. However, in most of these models, an important effect suggested by Malthus has been frequently omitted. By including what he had called "the great preventive check" in the traditional Malthusian model which is based on the principle of population, the principle of diminishing returns and the principle of labor division, the transition can be modelled in a very simple dynamic macroeconomic framework. The aim of this paper is to first construct and calibrate the suggested classical model and to eventually employ a conventional VAR-Method to provide evidence of the above principles using country-specific annual historical data on crude birth rate, crude death rate and GDP per capita growth rate. As a result, it is argued that emerging economies follow a universal macroeconomic pattern of development. A decreasing death rate is succeeded by a decreasing birth rate which at the same time induces GDP per capita to rise sustainably. The correspondingly advanced microeconomic theory suggests that increasing life expectancy tends to create a demographic structure that is much less prone to overpopulation.

The paper presents the theory of “Malthusian trap”, according to which the population is trapped in the intersection of the two laws. He found that the population is growing at a Adresa autora zaduženog za korespodenciju: Dragan Momirovic  draganmomirovic@ymail.com Momirovic D. Teorija privrednog rasta Maltusova zamka FBIM Transactions Vol. 3 No. 1 pp. 160-167 Published: January 2015 MESTE │ 161 geometric progression and the production of food and other resources by arithmetic progression. How is the land of fixed production resource with limited food production further population growth increases hunger, disease and war. Although the theory was created almost two centuries ago and was based solely on the principles of the time, where agriculture was the main source of development, it is done today. Despite the considerable technical and technological progress in agriculture, many countries today are unconsciously experienced effect called “Malthusian trap". Fixed surface area and volume of work add newborn population leads to the law of diminishing returns per worker. Insufficient capital with low productivity in many poor countries, affecting the population to produce food for their own needs hardly let alone a surplus for the market. In these countries, agricultural production cannot follow the growth of the population and leads to famines and increased mortality rates. In contrast, developed countries that have large amounts of capital are constantly investing in the development of new technical and technological innovations in agriculture, improved cultural practices and irrigation systems, and thus a multiple increase food production. This way they managed to avoid the risk of Malthusian trap. However, new technologies, cultural practices and irrigation systems are not omnipotent. With further uncontrolled population growth and a fixed land area threatened by a real danger that the developed countries fall into Malthusian trap. Therefore, it has already taken some measures to combat this potential threat in terms of family planning, limiting the number of births of children, the fight against poverty, education, population, settling unpopulated areas and the like.

The established knowledge in demography and in the economic research is based on the concept of Malthusian stagnation and on the associated concept of the escape from the Malthusian trap. These two fundamental concepts were gradually enforced by numerous other related postulates all aimed at explaining the mechanism of the historical growth of population and of the historical economic growth. Examples of publications based on the established knowledge are closely examined. They are used to show why the established knowledge is scientifically unacceptable. It is also pointed out that the established knowledge is contradicted by data and by their analyses. Interpretations of the historical economic growth and of the historical growth of population has to be based on accepting hyperbolic growth. However, the discussed examples point to a more serious problem in these two fields of research. It is a fundamental systemic problem, the problem associated with the way research is conducted. Doctrines, interpretations and declarations used by the established knowledge have to be accepted by faith. Data are either ignored or manipulated to support preconceived ideas. Contradicting evidence is methodically ignored. To be recognised as science, demographic and economic research has to adhere to the scientific rules of investigation.Keywords. Economic growth, Population growth, Gross Domestic Product, Hyperbolic growth, Malthusian stagnation, Malthusian trap, Malthusian positive checks, Malthusian oscillations, Fertility rate, Mortality rate, Famines, Pestilence, WarsJEL. A10, A12, A23, B22, B41, C12, Y80.

One of the greatest puzzles in demographic history is why in the rich and urbanized England, fertility declined much later than in the poor and rural France. We consider the effects of a land reform on demographic growth by a family- optimization model where relative per capita wealth generates social status and welfare. We show that tenant farming is the major obstacle to escaping the Malthu- sian trap with high fertility and low productivity. A land reform provides peasants with higher returns for their investments, inducing them to increase their productiv- ity and status rather than their family size. Consequently, the population growth rate slows down, but the productivity of land increases. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The collapse of historical civilizations has received much attention in archeology and anthropology. The findings are in line with the ideas of the classical economist Thomas Malthus, who envisioned a society in which environmental limits crucial for livelihood bind, leading to a Malthusian trap for the society. It is easy to dismiss Malthus as painting an unrealistic global future or to say that his forecast has so far not materialized, but the evolving problem of global warming provides reasons for concern. If our biosphere were to decline drastically due to global warming, no substitute could soon take our biosphere's place. If only to be prudent, it is incumbent upon us to take stock of Malthus. We can gain insight by considering the modeling literature on collapse in resource economics. The literature explains the evolution of the historical societies and attempts to solve their problem. This literature offers a gloomy outlook, although the situation is not hopeless. There are things we can do to avoid a Malthusian outcome for the global society.