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Breast cancer (BC) is globally the most frequent cancer in women. Adherence to endocrine therapy (ET) in hormone-receptor-positive BC patients is active and voluntary for the first five years after diagnosis. This study examines the impact of adherence to ET on 10-year excess mortality (EM) in patients diagnosed with Stages I to III BC (N = 2297). Since sample size is an issue for estimating age-and stage-specific survival indicators, we developed a method, ComSynSurData, for generating a large synthetic dataset (SynD) through probabilistic graphical modeling of the original cohort. We derived population-based survival indicators using a Bayesian relative survival model fitted to the SynD. Our modeling showed that hormone-receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed beyond 49 years of age at Stage I or beyond 59 years at Stage II do not have 10-year EM if they follow the prescribed ET regimen. This result calls for developing interventions to promote adherence to ET in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC and in turn improving cancer survival. The presented methodology here demonstrates the potential use of probabilistic graphical modeling for generating reliable synthetic datasets for validating population-based survival indicators when sample size is an issue This work was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI18/01836 funded by FEDER funds/European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)-a way to Build Europe-//FONDOS FEDER “una manera de hacer Europa”

To analyze the population-based survival of breast cancer (CM) diagnosed in early stages estimating the time trends of excess mortality (EM) in the long term in annual and five-year time intervals, and to determine, if possible, a proportion of patients who can be considered cured. Method: We included women diagnosed with BC under the age of 60 years in stages I and II in Girona and Tarragona (N = 2453). The observed (OS) and relative survival (RS) were calculated up to 20 years of follow-up. RS was also estimated at annual (RSI) and in five-year intervals (RS5) to graphically assess the EM. The results are presented by age groups (≤49 and 50-59), stage (I/II) and diagnostic period (1985-1994 and 1995-2004). Results: In stage I, OS and RS were higher during 1995-2004 compared to 1985-1994: 3.5% at 15 years of follow-up and 4.5% at 20-years of follow-up. In 1995-2004, the OS surpassed 80% in stage I patients whereas in stage II it remained below 70%. During 1995-2004, the long-term EM did not level off towards 0 (RSI

Evidence suggests an excess of long-term mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, second tumours and other causes in patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (BC). Our aim was to assess this risk of death in a cohort of patients diagnosed with BC in Girona and Tarragona, northeastern Spain. Materials and methods: Using data from the cancer registries in these areas, a population-based cohort study was carried out including all the women diagnosed with BC during 1985–2004 and followed up until December 31st 2014 (N = 10,195). The standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for causes other than BC in the cohort at 10 years (periods 1985–1994/1995–2004) and 20 years (period 1985–1994). The impact of competing causes of death in the long-term survival was evaluated through competing risk analysis. Results: The SMRs at 10 and 20 years for all-cause mortality, except BC, were 1.21 and 1.22. The main causes of mortality showing statistically significant SMR at 10 years were other tumours (colon, lung, corpus uteri, ovary, and haematological), diabetes mellitus, diseases of the nervous system, cardiovascular diseases (after BC, the second competing cause of death among patients diagnosed > 69 years) and diseases of the kidney. Globally, the 10-year SMR was higher in the first period. After 20 years of follow-up (1985–1994 cohort), there were 48.5 excess deaths per 10,000 patient-years for causes other than BC. Conclusions: Women who did not die from BC at 10 or 20 years after the BC diagnosis had 20% higher risk of dying from other causes than women without BC. This excess risk must be clinically considered during 20 years after the BC diagnosis This work was supported by (1) Instituto deSalud Carlos III through the Project PI14/01041, co-funded by FEDER funds/European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)-a way to Build Europe-//FONDOS FEDER “una manera de hacer Europa” and by (2) Agència d’Avaluació d’Universitats i Recerca (2017SGR00735) from Generalitat de Catalunya

Purpose We aim to comprehensively describe the incidence and mortality trends of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the Girona province, Spain (1994–2013) and to estimate the all-cause mortality excess risk of diagnosed women. Methods Age-standardized rates of DCIS were estimated between 1994 and 2013. Standard mortality ratios (SMR) and absolute excess mortality were calculated overall and by tumor and patient characteristics. A sensitivity analysis was conducted excluding cases with a subsequent invasive breast cancer (sIBC). Results Of the 641 women included, 56 died (follow-up time: 8.4 person-years). Between 1994 and 2013, a significant increase in incidence and decrease in mortality was identified among women aged between 50 and 69 years old. Neoplasms and circulatory system disease were the most common causes of death. No excess risk of death was found overall, except for women aged

Fundamento: El descenso de las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de mama (CM) se ha atribuido a la implantación de programas de cribado y a avances terapéuticos. El objetivo de este trabajo es comparar la evolución de su mortalidad en las regiones sanitarias de Cataluña en el periodo 1993-2007. Paralelamente, se ha analizado la diseminación de la mamografía periódica en las regiones sanitarias. Métodos: Se analizaron los datos del registro de mortalidad y encuestas de salud. Se utilizaron regresiones de Poisson y «joinpoint» para comparar las tasas de mortalidad por CM y analizar su evolución temporal. Se utilizaron modelos de efectos mixtos para comparar el nivel y la evolución de la mortalidad por regiones. Resultados. La tasa de mortalidad por CM descendió un 3% anual en Cataluña. Entre 1993 y 2007, la tasa estandarizada varió de 34,8 a 23,3 por 100.000 mujeres. Barcelona ciutat presentó unas tasas de mortalidad más elevadas que las regiones Centre (ratio de tasas (RT)=0,87), Costa de Ponent (RT=0,89), Tarragona (RT=0,9) y Lleida (RT=0,915), pero estas diferencias tendieron a desaparecer. No se observaron cambios de tendencia en la evolución de la mortalidad de las regiones, excepto en la región Centre. Durante los años 1990 Barcelona ciutat presentó unos porcentajes de utilización de mamografía periódica del 36,1% de las mujeres de 40-74 años, en la encuesta de 1994, la región Centre (23,7%) y Costa de Ponent (25,2%). Conclusiones: La progresiva utilización de mamografía periódica y la disminución de la mortalidad por CM fueron similares en las regiones sanitarias de Cataluña. Background: The decrease of breast cancer (BC) mortality rates has been attributed to early detection programs and therapeutic advances. The objective is to compare BC mortality trend in health regions of Catalonia during the period 1993-2007. In parallel, dissemination of periodic mammography in the health regions has been analyzed. Methods: Mortality and health surveys data were used. Poisson and «joinpoint» regression analyses were used to compare regional BC mortality rates and quantify their temporal evolution. Mixed effects models were used to compare the rates and their evolution by region. Results: The BC mortality rate decreased 3% annually in Cataluña. Between 1993 and 2007, the standard mortality rate changed from 34.8 to 23.3 per 100,000 women. Barcelona ciutat showed higher mortality rates than the Centre (rate ratio (RR)=0.873), Costa de Ponent (RR=0.885), Tarragona (RR=0.9) and Lleida regions (RR=0.915), but these differences tend to disappear over time. There were no observed trend changes in the evolution of the regional mortality rates, except in the Centre region. The use of periodic mammography was similar across health regions. During the 90s, Barcelona ciutat had a 36.1% utilization of periodic mammography in women aged 40-74, in the 1994 survey, the Centre 23.7 and Costa de Ponent 25.2%. Conclusions: The progressive increase in the use of periodic mammography and the decrease of BC mortality were similar in the eight health regions of Catalonia.

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods. This study has been funded by grants PI06/1649, PI06/90355 and PS09/01340 from the Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria) of the Spanish Ministry of Health and by grant 068/27/06 of the Catalan Agency for Health Technology Assessment (Agència d'Avaluació de Tecnologia i Recerca Mèdiques). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.