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It is shown that the log-likelihood of a hypothesis or model given some data is equivalent to an average of all leave-one-out cross-validation log-scores that can be calculated from all subsets of the data. This relation can be generalized to any $k$-fold cross-validation log-scores., Comment: 8 pages

The present work shows that the maximum-entropy method can be applied to a sample of neuronal recordings along two different routes: (1) apply to the sample; or (2) apply to a larger, unsampled neuronal population from which the sample is drawn, and then marginalize to the sample. These two routes give inequivalent results. The second route can be further generalized to the case where the size of the larger population is unknown. Which route should be chosen? Some arguments are presented in favour of the second. This work also presents and discusses probability formulae that relate states of knowledge about a population and its samples, and that may be useful for sampling problems in neuroscience., Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures. V2: added references and updated contact details

Automated classification methods for disease diagnosis are currently in the limelight, especially for imaging data. Classification does not fully meet a clinician's needs, however: in order to combine the results of multiple tests and decide on a course of treatment, a clinician needs the likelihood of a given health condition rather than binary classification yielded by such methods. We illustrate how likelihoods can be derived step by step from first principles and approximations, and how they can be assessed and selected, illustrating our approach using fMRI data from a publicly available data set containing schizophrenic and healthy control subjects. We start from the basic assumption of partial exchangeability, and then the notion of sufficient statistics and the "method of translation" (Edgeworth, 1898) combined with conjugate priors. This method can be used to construct a likelihood that can be used to compare different data-reduction algorithms. Despite the simplifications and possibly unrealistic assumptions used to illustrate the method, we obtain classification results comparable to previous, more realistic studies about schizophrenia, whilst yielding likelihoods that can naturally be combined with the results of other diagnostic tests., Comment: V1: 35 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. V2: 36 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables; partially rewritten all sections and added references. V3: Rewritten introduction

"Ever since the advent of modern quantum mechanics in the late 1920's, the idea has been prevalent that the classical laws of probability cease, in some sense, to be valid in the new theory. [...] The primary object of this presentation is to show that the thesis in question is entirely without validity and is the product of a confused view of the laws of probability" (Koopman, 1957). The secondary objects are: to show that quantum inferences are cases of partially exchangeable statistical models with particular prior constraints; to wonder about such constraints; and to plead for a dialogue between quantum theory and the theory of exchangeable models., Comment: V1: 19 pages, 1 figure. V2: 20 pages, 1 figure, added references

Spiking neuronal networks are usually simulated with three main simulation schemes: the classical time-driven and event-driven schemes, and the more recent hybrid scheme. All three schemes evolve the state of a neuron through a series of checkpoints: equally spaced in the first scheme and determined neuron-wise by spike events in the latter two. The time-driven and the hybrid scheme determine whether the membrane potential of a neuron crosses a threshold at the end of of the time interval between consecutive checkpoints. Threshold crossing can, however, occur within the interval even if this test is negative. Spikes can therefore be missed. The present work derives, implements, and benchmarks a method for perfect retrospective spike detection. This method can be applied to neuron models with affine or linear subthreshold dynamics. The idea behind the method is to propagate the threshold with a time-inverted dynamics, testing whether the threshold crosses the neuron state to be evolved, rather than vice versa. Algebraically this translates into a set of inequalities necessary and sufficient for threshold crossing. This test is slower than the imperfect one, but faster than an alternative perfect tests based on bisection or root-finding methods. Comparison confirms earlier results that the imperfect test rarely misses spikes (less than a fraction $1/10^8$ of missed spikes) in biologically relevant settings. This study offers an alternative geometric point of view on neuronal dynamics., Comment: 9 figures, Preliminary results in proceedings of the Bernstein Conference 2016

Pairwise maximum-entropy models have been used in recent neuroscientific literature to predict the activity of neuronal populations, given only the time-averaged correlations of the neuron activities. This paper provides evidence that the pairwise model, applied to experimental recordings, predicts a bimodal distribution for the population-averaged activity, and for some population sizes the second mode peaks at high activities, with 90% of the neuron population active within time-windows of few milliseconds. This bimodality has several undesirable consequences: 1. The presence of two modes is unrealistic in view of observed neuronal activity. 2. The prediction of a high-activity mode is unrealistic on neurobiological grounds. 3. Boltzmann learning becomes non-ergodic, hence the pairwise model found by this method is not the maximum entropy distribution; similarly, solving the inverse problem by common variants of mean-field approximations has the same problem. 4. The Glauber dynamics associated with the model is either unrealistically bistable, or does not reflect the distribution of the pairwise model. This bimodality is first demonstrated for an experimental dataset comprising 159 neuron activities recorded from the motor cortex of macaque monkey. Using a reduced maximum-entropy model, evidence is then provided that this bimodality affects typical neural recordings of population sizes of a couple of hundreds or more neurons. As a way to eliminate the bimodality and its ensuing problems, a modified pairwise model is presented, which -- most important -- has an associated pairwise Glauber dynamics. This model avoids bimodality thanks to a minimal asymmetric inhibition. It can be interpreted as a minimum-relative-entropy model with a particular prior, or as a maximum-entropy model with an additional constraint.

This is a short introduction to affine and convex spaces, written especially for physics students. It summarizes different elementary presentations available in the mathematical literature, and blends analytic- and geometric-flavoured presentations. References are also provided, as well as a brief discussion of Grassmann spaces and an example showing the relevance and usefulness of affine spaces in Newtonian physics., Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures. V2: Refined the sectioning, improved discussion of exposed faces, added section on Grassmann spaces

A case for the teaching of classical thermodynamics with an explicit time variable, with phenomena involving changes in time, is made by presenting and solving a exercise in textbook style, and pointing out that a solution accords with experiment. The exercise requires an explicit treatment of the time variable. Further arguments are given for the advantages of an explicit time variable in classical thermodynamics, and against some standard terminology in this theory., Comment: V2: 23 pages, 5 figures, largely rewritten and added references