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Accessibility plays an essential role in determining real estate prices and land use. An understanding of how accessibility and changes in accessibility influence real estate prices is key to making decisions regarding investments in infrastructure projects. From an accessibility point of view, it is not clear that there should be differences in valuation depending on the mode of public transport, road, or rail. There are, however, other differences that may affect real estate prices differently. For example, railway stations more often than bus stations, tend to be associated with a higher level of service. In addition, an investment in a railway station may signal a long-term decision from the policymaker. A third possible explanation concerns differences in perceived safety, comfort, and security. This paper aims to study if and how capitalization of accessibility differs between modes of transportation. The findings indicate that rail has a higher impact, both for single-family and multifamily houses. The implication of these findings may be of importance for future infrastructure investments and their corresponding cost-benefit analyses. Incorrect valuations of the benefits of infrastructure investments may result in sub-optimal investments. Funding Agencies|Belgian Science Policy Office in the framework of the STEREOIII program [SR/00/307, SR/01/354]

We compare policy implications from time-based charges on road freight transports, represented by the case of Sweden, to those from distance-based charges, represented by the case of Germany. The analyses based on official statistics from 2005-2014 indicate that the German road freight policy has resulted in substantially larger revenues and a cleaner truck fleet and mileage. Some support is found for that the German policy causes spill-overs to the neighbouring countries. It can be shown that the Swedish hauliers use cleaner trucks for international than for national transports. In general, the firms have incentives to use the cleanest trucks in the countries that have introduced distance-based tolls. As an estimate of the consequences of this in Sweden, the difference in environmental impact is estimated between the case with the actual composition of trucks using the Swedish network and the hypothetical case where the composition is the same as on the German toll roads. The socio-economic costs are estimated to be around € 16 million per year. This puts pressure on countries as Sweden to implement stronger policies to counter the spill-over effect. The time based charges, e.g., the Eurovignette, seem to be outdated.

This paper analyzes how countries with international and local truck traffic decide to switch from a simple fuel tax system to a dual system of fuel and kilometer taxes. We show what drives a country to switch and how this affects the level of fuel taxes and the incentives for the other countries to also adopt the dual system. The model is partially able to explain the gradual extension of kilometer charging for trucks in Europe. The model also shows that, in the absence of diesel cars, the gradual introduction of kilometer charges will make fuel taxation for trucks virtually disappear and will lead to a system where truck use is (1) taxed mainly based on distance, but (2) is taxed too heavily. When the fuel tax must in addition serve as an externality tax for diesel cars, the introduction of distance charges for trucks will give rise to diesel taxes that are lower than the external cost of diesel cars. For trucks, this leads to a sum of diesel taxes and distance charges that are higher than the external cost of trucks. QC 20150402

The impact of policy instruments supposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road freight transports may seem smaller than expected. Using insights from economics and contract theory, the paper sorts out the (possible) instances of market failure in the freight transport market; operator market power, asymmetric information split incentives, and public goods. The primary limitations of standard policy instruments are demonstrated to be linked to unobservable information. Some of these may be reduced but not eliminated as information technologies develop, making it possible to observe, verify and provide contract-relevant information to the uninformed parties. There is little reason to believe that possible market failures present major limitations to the efficiency of economic instruments geared toward protecting the climate, other than possibly in the short run.

I denna rapport diskuterar vi flera dimensioner av hur växthusgaserna från godstransportsektorn ska kunna minskas. Till exempel diskuterar vi införandet av så kallade Gröna korridorer och förslår verktyg för att lösa de komplexa koordinationsproblem som uppstår i dessa korridorer. Vidare diskuterar vi hur man ska se på de klimatpolitiska konsekvenserna av överflyttning från väg till järnväg eller elektrifierade fordon på väg. Vi visar att konsekvenserna av en sådan överflyttning beror på den energi- och klimatpolitiska kontexten. En stor del av rapporten fokuserar på hur godstransportsektorn kan tänkas svara på ekonomiska klimatstyrmedel. Godstransportmarknaden uppvisar en rad specifika egenskaper och förhållanden som skulle kunna innebära att den reagerar annorlunda än vad andra typer av marknader gör. In this report, we discuss greenhouse gas emissions from freight transport and how they could be reduced. We address these questions from several different angles. For example, we discuss the introduction of so-called green corridors and propose tools to solve the complex coordination problems that are associated with these corridors. Furthermore, we discuss how to view the climate change impact from shifting road to rail or electrified vehicles on road. We show that the consequences of such a shift depend on the energy- and climate policy context. The major part of the report focuses on how the freight transport sector might respond to economic climate policy instruments. Freight market exhibits a number of specific characteristics that could imply that it reacts differently than other types of markets do.

VTI notat 28-2014 innehåller de tio underlagsrapporter som ligger till grund för VTI rapport 831: ”Landbaserade godstransporter, klimat och styrmedel – Sammanfattande rapport”. I VTI rapport 831 diskuterar forskarna flera dimensioner av hur växthusgaserna från godstransportsektorn ska kunna minskas, till exempel med hjälp av så kallade Gröna korridorer. Vidare diskuteras hur man ska se på de klimatpolitiska konsekvenserna av överflyttning från väg till järnväg eller elektrifierade fordon på väg., VTI notat 28-2014 contains the ten underlying reports which is the base for VTI report 831: “Land based freight transports, climate and policy – Summary report”. In VTI report 831, the researchers discuss greenhouse gas emissions from freight transport and how they could be reduced. They address these questions from several different angles. For example, they discuss the introduction of so-called green corridors and propose tools to solve the complex coordination problems that are associated with these corridors. Furthermore, there is a discussion on how to view the climate change impact from shifting road to rail or electrified vehicles on road., Contents: 1 - . 2. On assessing climate effects of electrifying the transport sector. Björn Carlén and Svante Mandell. Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm. Working papers in transport economics, 2012:11. 3. Design of a combinatorial bidding market for Green Corridor freight. Lars Hultkrantz and Anders Lunander. Working Papers, School of Business, Örebro University, No 2013:6. 4. Why do CO2 emissions from road freight transports increase in spite of higher fuel prices? Inge Vierth. Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm. Working papers in Transport Economics, 2013:4. 5 Freight transport, policy instruments and the climate. Svante Mandell, Jan-Eric Nilsson and Inge Vierth. Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm. Working papers in Transport Economics, 2014:5. 6. The role of contractual and non-contractual relations between transport buyers and providers, in an environmental context. Anna Mellin and Edith Sorkina. Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm. Working papers in Transport Economics, 2013:5. 7. – . 8. Estimating the additionality of the Swedish climate investment subsidy program KLIMP using sample-selection model. Xing Liu. 2013. 9. Estimating value of time savings for freight transport: a simultaneous decision model of transport mode choice and shipment size. Xing Liu. 2013. 10. Effects from consistent internalization of external effects from transport and manufacturing: a CGE analysis for Sweden. Xing Liu and Lars Bohlin. 2012

This paper investigates price discovery over space in real estate office markets. It is argued that due to geographic variation in the costs and benefits of obtaining information, peripheral market segments move more sluggishly than central segments. In order to test this idea empirically Swedish office cap rates and total returns during the period 1984-2012 are investigated. Support for the pattern is found. These ex post observable patterns in cap rates and total returns do not constitute arbitrage opportunities since they are not instantaneously observable.

We argue that banks operating in a local market possess better information about the local housing market than do non-local banks. Possessing this information may influence their willingness to grant loans to house buyers and the specifics of the loan terms, which in turn may affect house prices because credit facilitation makes the housing market more efficient. Using a panel data set covering a period from 1993 to 2007 and involving 274 municipalities in Sweden, we establish a positive causal influence of local bank presence on local house prices. There are significant spatial and spillover effects – that is, banks in a municipality affect the housing markets in neighboring municipalities, although to a lesser extent than in their own municipality. Similar results are obtained through a gravity model. The results are robust over time and municipality size.

A common approach for procuring large construction projects is through Unit Price Contracts. By the means of a simple model, we study the optimal quantity to procure under uncertainty regarding the actual required quantity given that the procurer strives to minimize expected total costs. The model shows that the quantity to procure in optimum follows from a trade-off between the risk of having to pay for more units than actually necessary and of having to conduct costly renegotiations. The optimal quantity increases in costs associated with possible renegotiations, decreases in expected per unit price, and, if a renegotiation does not increase per unit price too much, decreases in the uncertainty surrounding the actual quantity required.

Rapporten syftar till att med utgångspunkt i gällande klimatpolitiska beslut, Naturvårdsverkets underlag till Färdplan 2050 och EU-kommissions rapport om utsläppsmarknadens funktion analysera hur EU:s system för handel med utsläppsrätter och den internationella utsläppsmarknaden kan utvecklas på lång sikt. EU:s klimat och energipaket innebär att utsläppen av växthusgaser inom EU ska minska med 20 procent från år 1990 till år 2020. Vidare ska, inom EU:s system för handel med utsläppsrätter (EU ETS), utsläppen minska med 21 procent mellan år 2005 och 2020, medan utsläppen i den icke handlande sektorn (IHS) ska minska med 10 procent under samma period (EU-kommissionen, 2013). Den större bördan i EU ETS motiveras av att åtgärdskostnaderna är lägre där och att det därför är mer kostnadseffektivt att minska utsläppen mer i EU ETS. I EU:s färdplan till 2050 anges en intention att minska utsläppen med 80 till 95 procent till 2050 (EU-kommissionen, 2011b). Utsläppsmålet för EU ETS till år 2020 säkerställs genom att utsläppstaket minskar med 1,74 procent per år. Den reduktionsfaktorn gäller även bortom 2020 och kommer att leda till en total minskning med cirka 70 procent till år 2050. Men eftersom det inte räcker för att uppfylla ambitionen till 2050 behöver ambitionsnivån höjas i EU ETS. Det finns i och för sig en flexibilitet i hur framtida reduktionsmål fördelas mellan ETS och IHS. Men eftersom åtgärdskostnaderna tycks vara billigare i ETS än i IHS är det sannolikt att man, på samma sätt som idag ökar bördan relativt sett mer i ETS än i IHS. EU-kommissionen presenterade 2012 en rapport, The State of the European Carbon Market in 2012, om hur EU:s handelssystem för utsläppsrätter fungerar och kan utvecklas på längre sikt (EU-kommissionen, 2012a). I rapporten konstateras att det finns ett stort överskott av utsläppsrätter vilket riskerar att allvarligt underminera handelssystemets funktion. Rapporten beskriver vidare sex strukturella åtgärder som kommissionen anser kan förbättra den nuvarande situationen inom EU ETS och det nu rådande och växande utbudsöverskottet. Med utgångspunkt i kommissionens rapport har vi analyserat förslagen utifrån ett nationalekonomiskt perspektiv. Vårt fokus har varit på EU ETS och hur dess funktion och effektivitet påverkas av förslagen. Vidare har vi försökt att måla upp ett antal scenarier för hur den internationella utsläppsmarknaden utvecklas i framtiden med utblick mot 2050, och vad det innebär för Sveriges förutsättningar att köpa utsläppsrätter på den internationella marknaden.

New infrastructure projects may affect CO2 emissions and, thus, cost benefit analyses for these projects require a value to apply for CO2. This may be based on the marginal social cost of emissions or on the carbon price resulting from present and future policies. This paper argues that both approaches are necessary, but for cost benefit analysis of infrastructure projects the latter should be the primary tool. A series of complications arise when applying this principle in practice. These are discussed in the paper. Even if the complications make the implementation of the approach difficult, we argue that it is still preferable to a social cost approach.

Shifting transportation to electrified modes, e.g., rail, is a politically attractive way of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. There is a vivid debate about the effects such a shift has on GHG emission and how these should be assessed and appraised. We argue that this debate largely originates from differences in how the debaters characterize the situation at hand, in particular how markets are organized and which policy instruments are in place. To shed light on this, we start by identifying the appropriate assessment approach in a hypothetical situation without any climate or energy policies and then gradually add realistic circumstances into the equation. Our main conclusion is that evaluating the climate impacts from a transportation shift is a highly complex task in the initial situation. The closer we move towards a climate-policy architecture of the current EU-type, the simpler the task becomes. Given a comprehensive global climate treaty, there is no need for any special treatment of the GHG effects since all relevant effects then would be internalized in producer and consumer prices.

En stor andel av landets sammanlagda förbrukning av energi används inom transportsektorn, och cirka en tredjedel av denna förbrukning avser godstrafik. Med undantag för åren direkt efter finanskrisen ökar godstrafiken från år till år, och därmed också energiförbrukningen. Denna rapport innehåller mot denna bakgrund en kvalitativ diskussion kring tre olika aspekter på godstransportmarknaden som skulle kunna innebära att denna utveckling inte är förenlig med en samhällsekonomiskt effektiv resursanvändning. En första förklaring till den ökade trafiken, och därmed förbrukningen av drivmedel och andra resurser, kan kopplas till de externa effekter som tung trafik ger upphov till. Det är väl känt att tunga lastbilar sliter på vägarna och ger upphov till utsläpp, olycksrisker, buller och trängsel. Det finns inga garantier för att marknadsaktörerna med automatik beaktar dessa effekter i de transportbeslut som fattas. Genomgången visar att uttaget av banavgifter och av drivmedelsskatter för tung trafik i genomsnitt är helt otillräckligt för att täcka dessa (marginal-) kostnader. Också med konservativa antaganden skulle skatten på drivmedel behöva fördubblas medan det finns skäl att höja banavgifterna med ännu mer. Kunskapsläget är ännu ofullständigt för att bedöma vilka förändringar som eventuellt skulle behöva genomföras av avgifterna på sjötransporter. Rapporten innehåller också en diskussion om konsekvenserna av andra tänkbara marknadsimperfektioner för marknadens sätt att fungera. I den utsträckning ett företag utövar stark kontroll av priset på någon del av godstransportmarknaden finns starka skäl att bryta upp ett sådant (lokalt) monopol. Men även om man inte bryter upp ett (eventuellt) monopol talar det mesta för att en politik som – tvärt emot vad som nu sagts – tar ut effektivitetsskapande skatter och avgifter av dem som använder infrastrukturen skulle innebära för små utsläppsminskingar. A large share of Sweden’s aggregate use of energy is used in the transport sector, a third of which is used for freight transport purposes. Excluding the recent downturn in the business cycle, traffic and therefore also the use of energy, increases year by year. Against this background the present report provides a qualitative discussion of three aspects of the market for freight transport which may indicate that this development is not compatible with an efficient use of resources. A first possible reason for the increase in traffic, and thereby the increasing use of energy and other resources, can be related to the external effects of heavy traffic. It is well known that heavy vehicles wear the roads down, that they generate accident risks noise and congestion and also that the use of fossil fuel results in emissions. There are no guarantees that the transport industry automatically takes these effects into account in their decision making. The use of economic instruments is one possibility for internalising these effects. The review however demonstrates that current charges on users of railway infrastructure as well as taxes on fuel are insufficient for representing these costs. Even with conservative assumption the fuel tax should be doubled while track user charges on freight should increase with even more. The report also comprises a discussion about whether other (potential) market failures may affect the growth of transport volumes. To the extent that a (transport) corporation is able to control the price on some part of the market, there may be reason to break up this (local) monopoly. But even if a monopoly would not be eliminated, there are few indications that a welfare enhancing policy – should it be implemented – would not reduce the use of energy. The risk is rather that an unrestricted monopoly would lead to too small transport volumes. The industry is characterised by specific contracts between buyers and sellers of transport services.

Det mesta talar för att det till mycket begränsade kostnader går att utforma system som gör det möjligt att dra lärdomar av både goda och mindre goda erfarenheter och därmed förbättra kostnadseffektiviteten för infrastrukturinvesteringar i offentlig sektor. Denna promemoria baseras på erfarenheterna från ett av Konkurrensverket finansierat forskningsprojekt där vi visar att det inte är möjligt att följa kostnaderna för infrastrukturinvesteringar från regeringens investeringsplan och riksdagens budgetbeslut till kostnaden vid upphandlingstillfället och till slutlig resursförbrukning. I uppsatsen diskuteras tänkbara förklaringar. Oavsett anledning är bristen på uppföljning problematisk eftersom både den interna styrningen och regeringskansliets styrning av myndigheten försvåras. It is possible to enhance the cost effectiveness of infrastructure investments in the public sector. In this VTI report it is also stated that the costs for implementing a system which would facilitate the identification of successes and failures are very small. The paper is based on experiences from a research project sponsored by the Swedish Competition Authority. The focus is on cost comparisons throughout investment projects’ life cycle. The cycle starts with the government’s long-term investment program; then follows the (annual) decision by the parliament to allocate appropriations for projects, based on this program; in the next step, and after having tendered construction, a contract is signed with an entrepreneur; and finally the cost realization as registered in the accounting system provides the bottom line cost. It is demonstrated that it is not feasible to track costs through this life cycle, i.e. to compare costs in the early phases with the final costs. Alternative hypotheses which would explain the logic behind the impossibility of follow-ups are suggested. Irrespective of motive, the situation means that the government’s possibility to control the agencies with responsibility for implementing major projects is jeopardized.

Det är inte möjligt att följa kostnaderna för infrastrukturinvesteringar från regeringens investeringsplan och riksdagens budgetbeslut till kostnaden vid upphandlingstillfället och till slutlig resursförbrukning. I uppsatsen diskuteras tänkbara förklaringar. Oavsett anledning är bristen på uppföljning problematisk eftersom både den interna styrningen och regeringskansliets styrning av myndigheten försvåras. Det mesta talar för att det till mycket begränsade kostnader går att utforma system som gör det möjligt att dra lärdomar av både goda och mindre goda erfarenheter och därmed förbättra kostnadseffektiviteten i offentlig sektor.

Earlier theoretical models of unbalanced bidding in unit price contracts (UPC) ofter predict corner solutions, i.e. zero bids for unit prices of expected overextimated quantities. However, anecdotal evidence indicates a lack of zero bids in the actual contracts. We pursue a possible explanation for this anomaly in risk-aversion of the contractor. Using a simple model we show that a contractor with superior information may exploit this in the bidding process to increase her expectd revenue. However, in so doing she increases her risk exposure. If the contractor is risk-averse, she typically will avoid a corner solution to this risk vs. expected return trade-off.

A common approach for procuring large construction projects is through Unit Price Contracts. By the means of a simple model, we study the optimal quantity to procure under uncertainty regarding the actual required quantity given that the procurer strives to minimize expected total costs. The model shows that the quantity to procure in optimum follows from a trade-off between the risk of having to pay for more units than actually necessary and of having to conduct costly renegotiations. The optimal quantity increases in costs associated with possible renegotiations, decreases in expected per unit price, and, if a renegotiation does not increase per unit price too much, decreases in the uncertainty surrounding the actual quantity required. Older version: http://swopec.hhs.se/vtiwps/abs/vtiwps2011_004.htm

This paper discusses principles for identifying and appraising the impact on GHG (green house gases) emissions from electrifying transportation. We are primarily interested in the road-to-rail case, but the principles apply to other cases as well, both inside and outside the transportation sector. The underlying motive for the paper is an ongoing debate regarding how and to what extent investments in rail infrastructure influences GHG emissions and how to adequately consider the effects in cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) of such investments. Various approaches have been proposed.

I denna rapport analyseras principer för hur ett monetärt värde för koldioxidutsläpp i samhällsekonomiskakalkyler av infrastrukturprojekt kan fastställas. I syftet ingår också att behandla de fundamentalaosäkerheter som uppstår i samband med koldioxidvärdering. Rapporten syftar dock inte till att föreslå ettvärde.Vi argumenterar för att det värde som används i kalkylerna måste härledas från den existerande och iframtiden förväntade politik som riktas mot transportsektorn. Den nuvarande och framtida politikenutgår delvis från kostnadsestimat och övrig klimatrelaterad forskning som finns tillgänglig. Vi beskriverdetta som en tvåstegsprocess där politikerna i steg ett tar del av befintlig information och utifrån dettautformar en politik. I steg två skapar politiken ett skuggpris och detta är vad som ska återspeglas i densamhällsekonomiska kalkylen.I närtid argumenterar vi för att ett relevant spann för värdet mellan 0,20 och 2 kr per kg CO2. Det lägreintervallet följer av priset på utsläppsrätter inom EU ETS och det högre grundar sig på en SIKA-bedömning.Vidare argumenterar vi för att CO2-värdet i kalkylerna bör förändras över tid givet att det är troligtatt klimatpolitiken blir striktare. This report studies the principles behind selecting a monetized value for CO2 emissions in cost-benefit analyses. It also aims at discussing the fundamental uncertainties associated with estimating a CO2 value. However, the report does not suggest a value. We argue that the value must derive from the existing and expected future policies geared towards the transport sector. These policies are partly based on the social cost estimates and climate research available. We describe this as a two-step procedure where the policy makers, in step one, let the available information influence their choice of policy design. In step two, the implemented policy results in shadow prices and these are the relevant prices to include in a project cost-benefit analysis. In the short run, we argue that a relevant interval for a CO2 value is between 0,20 and 2 SEK per kg CO2. The lower bound is based on the emission permit prices in the EU ETS and the upper originates from a SIKA-estimate. Moreover, we argue that the CO2 value in the analysis should evolve over time as it is probable that the climate policy will become stricter. Alternative URL: ht tp://fudinfo.trafikverket.se/fudinfoexternwebb/Publikationer/Publikationer_00100 1_001100/Publikation_001099/R692%20Hantering%20av%20klimatv%c3%a4rdering%20i%20i nfrastrukturobjekt.pdf

New infrastructure projects may affect CO2 emissions and, thus, cost benefit analyses for these projects require a value to apply for CO2. The value may be based on the marginal social cost associated with emissions or on the shadow price resulting from present and future policies geared towards CO2 emissions. In the present paper it is argued that the social cost approach should be seen as preceding the shadow price approach. Both are thus necessary, but for cost benefit analysis of infrastructure projects we argue for the shadow price approach as the primary tool. There is a series of complications involved when applying this principle in practice. Several of these are discussed in the paper, including non-marginal projects that affect permit prices, non-transparent permit markets, different instruments capturing different aspects of a CO2-value, multiple policies present simultaneously etc.

Today’s dominant mechanism for infrastructure project tendering is the Unit Price Contract (UPC). While the winning bidder retains risk related to the unit price bids submitted, the Principal carries all risk related to misspecification of the activities required for having a project build. This paper reviews the microeconomic foundations for this contracting procedure and identifies situations where an alternative mechanism, Design - Build (DB) contracts, may be preferable. DB leaves the bulk of project risk with the agent and therefore requires bidders to hedge against unpleasant surprises in the implementation by increasing the demand for compensation for undertaking the job. It is argued that DB should not be used if the number of bidders is expected to be large; this is a means for reducing the duplication of design costs. Moreover, DB projects should be complex with respect to the number of sub-tasks required for construction and it should be feasible to substitute one input for another. This is a way for society to benefit from the agent’s superior information about alternative implementation techniques and relative input prices. The projects should moreover not include too many unobservable quality features and the risks for geotechnical problems should be manageable.

Over the last decades there has been an increasing focus on how to build a sustainable society and in particular on how to design policies that pushes the society into a more sustainable direction. The present paper aims at analysing differences between house buyers when valuing environmental characteristics associated with the house as such. The theoretical framework used is based on the hedonic modelling, but we are also estimating the second stage by assuming a translog utility function. In doing that we are able to estimate the non-marginal willingness to pay for environmental housing attributes and whether environmental aware household have a higher willingness to pay or not. The conclusion to be drawn from the analysis is that there is a positive willingness to pay for environmental attributes. Hence, there may be room for policy measures such as information campaigns. However, it seems to be more effective concerning environmental housing attribute that do not require large investment.