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1. Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

Author

Delei Li, Jakob Zscheischler, Yang Chen, Baoshu Yin, Jianlong Feng, Mandy Freund, Jifeng Qi, Yuchao Zhu, and Emanuele Bevacqua

Subjects
Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract

Abstract Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) can severely impact natural and socioeconomic systems. However, our understanding of CWPE future changes, drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, by analyzing the event both on oceans and landmasses via state‐of‐the‐art climate model simulations, we reveal a poleward shift of CWPE occurrences by the late 21st century, with notable increases at latitudes exceeding 50° in both hemispheres and decreases in the subtropics around 25°. CWPE intensification occurs across approximately 90% of global landmasses, and is most pronounced under a high‐emission scenario. Most changes in CWPE frequency and intensity (about 70% and 80%, respectively) stem from changes in precipitation extremes. We further identify large uncertainties in CWPE changes, which can be understood at the regional level by considering climate model differences in trends of CWPE drivers. These results provide insights into understanding CWPE changes under a warmer climate, aiding robust regional adaptation strategy development.

Published
2024
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2. A multi‐model likelihood analysis of unprecedented extreme rainfall along the east coast of Australia

Author

Damien B. Irving, James S. Risbey, Dougal T. Squire, Richard Matear, Carly Tozer, Didier P. Monselesan, Nandini Ramesh, P. Jyoteeshkumar Reddy, and Mandy Freund

Subjects
Australia, climate extremes, climate risk, CMIP6, decadal forecast, extreme rainfall, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract

Abstract A large stretch of the east coast of Australia experienced unprecedented rainfall and flooding over a two‐week period in early 2022. It is difficult to reliably estimate the likelihood of such a rare event from the relatively short observational record, so an alternative is to use data from an ensemble prediction system (e.g., a seasonal or decadal forecast system) to obtain a much larger sample of simulated weather events. This so‐called ‘UNSEEN’ method has been successfully applied in several scientific studies, but those studies typically rely on a single prediction system. In this study, we use data from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project to explore the model uncertainty associated with the UNSEEN method by assessing 10 different hindcast ensembles. Using the 15‐day rainfall total averaged over the river catchments impacted by the 2022 east coast event, we find that the models produce a wide range of likelihood estimates. Even after excluding a number of models that fail basic fidelity tests, estimates of the event return period ranged from 320 to 1814 years. The vast majority of models suggested the event is rarer than a standard extreme value assessment of the observational record (297 years). Such large model uncertainty suggests that multi‐model analysis should become part of the standard UNSEEN procedure.

Published
2024
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3. Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Author

Benjamin J Henley, Gerald Meehl, Scott B Power, Chris K Folland, Andrew D King, Jaclyn N Brown, David J Karoly, Francois Delage, Ailie J E Gallant, Mandy Freund, and Raphael Neukom

Subjects
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Variability, IPO, PDO, CMIP5, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumvents assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.

Published
2017
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4. European hydroclimate variability of the past 400 years based on tree-ring isotopes

Author

Mandy Freund, Gerhard Helle, Daniel Balting, Natasha Ballis, Gerhard Schleser, and Ulrich Cubasch

Abstract

In recent decades, Europe has experienced more frequent flood and drought events. However, little is known about the long-term, spatiotemporal hydroloclimatic changes across Europe. We show the first climate field reconstruction spanning the entire European continent based on tree-ring stable isotopes. A pronounced seasonal consistency in climate response across Europe leads to a unique, well-verified spatial field reconstruction of European summer hydroclimate back to 1600. We find distinct phases of European hydroclimate variability as possible fingerprints of solar activity (coinciding with the Maunder Minimum and the end of the Little Ice Age), pronounced decadal variability and a long-term drying trend from the mid 20th century. The recent European summer conditions are highly unusual in a multi-century context and unprecedented for large parts of central and western Europe.

Published
2023
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5. ENSO diversity, transitions and projected changes

Author

Mandy Freund, Josephine Brown, Andrew Marshall, Carly Tozer, Benjamin Henley, James Risbey, and Sur Sharmila

Abstract

Diverse characteristics of ENSO events occurring either in the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP), have led to a shift in the traditional view of tropical coupled ocean- atmosphere systems and present a challenge in light of recent changes and possible future ENSO behaviour. The probability of a transition from one type of event to another is influenced by multiple factors of which many are projected to change with global warming. Here we assess the likelihood of transition from one ENSO state to another in long instrumental records and climate models. We find specific transitions are more likely than others. For example, strong EP El Niño events are more likely to transition to La Niña events than to El Niño events. The strength of an El Niño event is found to be an important factor. Consecutive CP El Niño events, unlike consecutive EP El Niño events, are more likely to occur after a strong CP event. Under a high emission scenario, we find significant changes of transitions.

Published
2023
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10. A past, present and future perspective on the European summer vapour pressure deficit

Author

Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita

Subjects
ddc:550
Abstract

The response of evapotranspiration to anthropogenic warming is of critical importance to the water and carbon cycle. Con-flicting observations about changes of evapotranspiration stem mostly from the brevity of observations in time and space as well as a high degree of internal variability. Here we present the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) for the past four centuries. The gridded reconstruction is based on 26 European tree-ring oxygen iso-tope records and is performed using a Random Forest approach. Based on our reconstruction, we show that from the mid-1700s a trend towards higher VPD occurred in Central Europe and the Mediterranean region which is based on the simulta-neous increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This increasing VPD trend continues throughout the observation-al period and recent times. Climate model projections show this increase in VPD for the Mediterranean region continuing until the end of the 21st century, whereby the extent depends on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, pro-jected VPD in North and Central Europe shows a tendency towards higher VPD only in the highest emission scenario (the produced data is available here: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5958837 (Balting, D. F. et al., 2022).

Published
2022
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11. Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries

Author

Nerilie J. Abram, Mandy Freund, Benjamin J. Henley, Dietmar Dommenget, Helen McGregor, and David J. Karoly

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Effects of global warming on oceans, Climate change, Context (language use), 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Sea surface temperature, Oceanography, El Niño, Period (geology), General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Common spatial pattern, Precipitation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

El Nino events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Nino events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Nino events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Nino events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Nino events. Compared to the past few centuries, Central Pacific El Nino events have become more frequent, whereas the number of Eastern Pacific events has declined in the most recent decades, according to reconstructions from a network of seasonally resolved coral records.

Published
2019
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12. Large-scale climate signals of a European oxygen isotope network from tree rings

Author

Monica Ionita, Gerhard Helle, Norel Rimbu, Gerrit Lohmann, Diana E. Caldarescu, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, Daniel Balting, Ingo Heinrich, and Martin Wegmann

Subjects
Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, δ18O, Atmospheric circulation, Stratigraphy, Anomaly (natural sciences), Mode (statistics), Paleontology, Empirical orthogonal functions, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Environmental protection, Environmental pollution, Environmental sciences, Isotopic signature, TD172-193.5, 13. Climate action, Climatology, TD169-171.8, ddc:550, GE1-350, Precipitation, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Teleconnection
Abstract

We investigate the climate signature of δ18O tree-ring records from sites distributed all over Europe covering the last 400 years. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals two distinct modes of variability on the basis of the existing δ18O tree-ring records. The first mode is associated with anomaly patterns projecting onto the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and reflects a multi-seasonal climatic signal. The ENSO link is pronounced for the last 130 years, but it is found to be weak over the period from 1600 to 1850, suggesting that the relationship between ENSO and the European climate may not be stable over time. The second mode of δ18O variability, which captures a north–south dipole in the European δ18O tree-ring records, is related to a regional summer atmospheric circulation pattern, revealing a pronounced centre over the North Sea. Locally, the δ18O anomalies associated with this mode show the same (opposite) sign with temperature (precipitation). Based on the oxygen isotopic signature derived from tree rings, we argue that the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the related teleconnections can be analysed beyond instrumental records.

Published
2021
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14. Large scale climate signals of a European oxygen isotope network from tree-rings – predominantly caused by ENSO teleconnections?

Author

Monica Ionita, Mandy Freund, Gerrit Lohmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Martin Wegmann, Diana E. Caldarescu, Norel Rimbu, Daniel Balting, and Ingo Heinrich

Subjects
δ18O, Atmospheric circulation, Anomaly (natural sciences), Climatology, Dendrochronology, Mode (statistics), Empirical orthogonal functions, Precipitation, Geology, Teleconnection
Abstract

We investigate the annual variability of δ18O tree ring records from sites distributed all over Europe covering the last 400 years. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals two distinct modes of variability on the basis of the existing δ18O tree ring records. The first mode of δ18O variability is associated with anomaly patterns of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and reflects a multi-seasonal climatic signal. The ENSO signal is visible for the last 130 years, but is found weak during the period 1600 to 1850 suggesting that the relationship between ENSO and the European climate may not stable over time. The second mode of δ18O variability, which captures an out-of-phase variability between northwestern and southeastern European δ18O tree ring records, is related to a regional summer atmospheric circulation pattern revealing a pronounced centre over the North Sea. Locally, the δ18O anomalies associated with this mode show the same (opposite) sign with temperature (precipitation). We infer that the investigation of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and related teleconnections far beyond instrumental records can be done with oxygen isotopic signature derived from tree rings. However, the European δ18Ocel tree network needs to be consolidated and updated, as well as additional research on the stationarity of reconstructed climate signals and the stationarity of teleconnections is advisable.

Published
2020
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15. Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate

Author

Scott B. Power, Margot Bador, Michael R. Grose, Surendra Rauniyar, Harun Rashid, Ghyslaine Boschat, François Delage, Christine T. Y. Chung, Neil J. Holbrook, Kewei Lyu, Xuebin Zhang, Jules B. Kajtar, Julie M. Arblaster, Claire Trenham, Mandy Freund, Andrew J. Dowdy, Tim Cowan, Sugata Narsey, Scott Wales, and Lisa V. Alexander

Subjects
lcsh:GE1-350, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Range (biology), Australia, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, Future climate, 01 natural sciences, La Niña, lcsh:QH540-549.5, Climatology, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), regional projections, Climate sensitivity, Climate model, lcsh:Ecology, 020701 environmental engineering, CMIP6, lcsh:Environmental sciences, Sea level, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Teleconnection
Abstract

Outputs from new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of climate change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects of CMIP6: what is new in these models, how the available CMIP6 models evaluate compared to CMIP5, and their projections of the future Australian climate compared to CMIP5 focussing on the highest emissions scenario. The CMIP6 ensemble has several new features of relevance to policymakers and others, for example, the integrated matrix of socioeconomic and concentration pathways. The CMIP6 models show incremental improvements in the simulation of the climate in the Australian region, including a reduced equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias, slightly improved rainfall teleconnections with large‐scale climate drivers, improved representation of atmosphere and ocean extreme heat events, as well as dynamic sea level. However, important regional biases remain, evident in the excessive rainfall over the Maritime Continent and rainfall pattern biases in the nearby tropical convergence zones. Projections of Australian temperature and rainfall from the available CMIP6 ensemble broadly agree with those from CMIP5, except for a group of CMIP6 models with higher climate sensitivity and greater warming and increase in some extremes after 2050. CMIP6 rainfall projections are similar to CMIP5, but the ensemble examined has a narrower range of rainfall change in austral summer in Northern Australia and austral winter in Southern Australia. Overall, future national projections are likely to be similar to previous versions but perhaps with some areas of improved confidence and clarity.

Published
2020
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16. Supplementary material to 'The SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500'

Author

Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Joseph G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin Vollmer, and Hsaing Jui Wang

Published
2019
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17. The SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Author

Urs Beyerle, Paul B. Krummel, Stefan Reimann, Jared Lewis, Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Nico Bauer, Malte Meinshausen, Martin K. Vollmer, Andrew John, Alexander Nauels, Marten van den Berg, Nicolai Meinshausen, J. G. Canadell, Zebedee Nicholls, Gunnar Luderer, Mandy Freund, Claudia Gessner, Stephen A. Montzka, Matthew Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Steven J. Smith, Peter Rayner, and Hsaing Jui Wang

Subjects
0303 health sciences, geography, Plateau, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Fossil fuel, Forcing (mathematics), 15. Life on land, Radiative forcing, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Latitude, 03 medical and health sciences, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, 11. Sustainability, Range (statistics), Environmental science, Land use, land-use change and forestry, business, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Anthropogenic increases of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The Integrated Assessment community quantified anthropogenic emissions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentration for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally-based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions in the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from today 66 % to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterisations that reflect the Oslo Line by Line model results. In comparison to the RCPs, the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced in terms of their expected global-mean temperatures, extend to lower 2100 temperatures and sea level rise than the RCP set. Performing 2 pairs of 6-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the MAM season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼ 5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies’ projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a ‘hockey-stick’ upwards shape – it is a collective choice whether the hothouse pathway is pursued or whether we manage climate damages to the SSP1-1.9 equivalent of around 1.5 °C warming.

Published
2019
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21. Multi-century cool and warm season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

Author

Mandy Freund, Benjamin J. Henley, David J. Karoly, Kathryn J. Allen, and Patrick J. Baker

Abstract

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly influenced by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these large-scale precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (Apr–Sep) and warm (Oct–Mar) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our sub-annual rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a sub-annual temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30-year and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are also very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium drought (1997–2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation drought [1895–1903], World War II drought [1939–1945], and the Millennium drought [1997–2005]), we find that the historically documented Settlement drought [1790–1793], Sturt drought [1809–1830] and the Goyder Line drought [1861–1866] actually had more regionalised patterns and reduced spatial extents. This seasonal rainfall reconstruction provides a new opportunity to understand Australian rainfall variability, by contextualising severe droughts and recent trends in Australia.

Published
2017
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23. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Author

Dmitry Divine, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Hugues Goosse, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Anne Hormes, Narayan Prasad Gaire, Joelle Gergis, Katrine Husum, David J. Nash, Konrad Gajewski, Jens Zinke, Vladimir Mikhalenko, Darrell S. Kaufman, Eugene R. Wahl, Martin Grosjean, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Pierre Francus, Anastasia Gornostaeva, Diana Vladimirova, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Lucien von Gunten, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Michael Sigl, Ryu Uemura, Michael N. Evans, Hideaki Motoyama, Scott St. George, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Chris S. M. Turney, Johannes P. Werner, Robert Mulvaney, Jianghao Wang, Brian M. Chase, Mark A. J. Curran, Julien Emile-Geay, Takeshi Nakatsuka, David J. Sauchyn, Nerilie J. Abram, Bronwyn C. Dixon, Raphael Neukom, Cody C. Routson, Trevor J. Porter, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Mirko Severi, Massimo Frezzotti, Steven J. Phipps, Hans W. Linderholm, A. E. Viau, P. Graham Mortyn, Jessica E. Tierney, Eric J. Steig, Heidi A. Roop, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Jason A. Addison, Jonathan J. Tyler, Mandy Freund, Daniel A. Dixon, Belen Martrat, Chenxi Xu, Krystyna M. Saunders, Min Te Chen, Xuemei Shao, Vasile Ersek, Philipp Munz, Hans Oerter, Masaki Sano, Zhixin Hao, Meloth Thamban, Alexey A. Ekaykin, Barbara Stenni, Kazuho Horiuchi, Ignacio A. Mundo, Zicheng Yu, Gregory T. Pederson, James W. C. White, Nalan Koc, Elisabeth Isaksson, Kathryn Allen, Rixt de Jong, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques, Andrew Lorrey, Guillaume Leduc, Quansheng Ge, Kristine L. DeLong, Kenji Kawamura, Anais Orsi, Thomas Opel, Edward R. Cook, Kate E. Sinclair, Benjamin J. Henley, Nicholas P. McKay, Helen McGregor, Andrew D. Moy, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Jesper Björklund, Helena L. Filipsson, Udya Kuwar Thapa, Casey Saenger, Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], Australian National University (ANU), United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Spanish National Research Council [Madrid] (CSIC), School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Sydney] (BEES), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche [Trieste], Università degli studi di Trieste, University of Texas at Austin [Austin], Department of Earth and Space Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], Department of Earth Sciences [Oxford], University of Oxford [Oxford], Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Climate Change Institute (CCI), University of Maine, University of Northumbria at Newcastle [United Kingdom], Lund University [Lund], Centre Eau Terre Environnement - INRS (INRS-ETE), Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique [Québec] (INRS), Italian National agency for new technologies, Energy and sustainable economic development [Frascati] (ENEA), Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Quaternary Geology, The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Norwegian Polar Institute, Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [Barcelona] (UAB), National Institute of Polar Research [Tokyo] (NiPR), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), School of Environment and Technology, University of Brighton, Abteilung Klinische Sozialmedizin, Berufs- und Umweltdermatologie, Universität Heidelberg [Heidelberg], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), The University of Tokyo, Laboratoire de géographie physique : Environnements Quaternaires et Actuels (LGP), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Department of Chemistry, University of Florence (UNIFI), Biogéochimie-Traceurs-Paléoclimat (BTP), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), University of the Ryukyus [Okinawa], Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), PAGES 2k, Università degli studi di Trieste = University of Trieste, University of Oxford, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Climate Change Institute [Orono] (CCI), Centre Eau Terre Environnement [Québec] (INRS - ETE), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Universität Heidelberg [Heidelberg] = Heidelberg University, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Emile-Geay, J., Mckay, N. P., Kaufman, D. S., Von Gunten, L., Wang, Junrong, Anchukaitis, K. J., Abram, N. J., Addison, J. A., Curran, M. A. J., Evans, M. N., Henley, B. J., Hao, Z., Martrat, B., Mcgregor, H. V., Neukom, R., Pederson, G. T., Stenni, B., Thirumalai, K., Werner, J. P., Xu, C., Divine, D. V., Dixon, B. C., Gergis, J., Mundo, I. A., Nakatsuka, T., Phipps, S. J., Routson, C. C., Steig, E. J., Tierney, J. E., Tyler, J. J., Allen, K. J., Bertler, N. A. N., Bjorklund, J., Chase, B. M., Chen, M. -T., Cook, E., De Jong, R., Delong, K. L., Dixon, D. A., Ekaykin, A. A., Ersek, V., Filipsson, H. L., Francus, P., Freund, M. B., Frezzotti, M., Gaire, N. P., Gajewski, K., Ge, Q., Goosse, H., Gornostaeva, A., Grosjean, M., Horiuchi, K., Hormes, A., Husum, K., Isaksson, E., Kandasamy, S., Kawamura, K., Kilbourne, K. H., Koc, N., Leduc, G., Linderholm, H. W., Lorrey, A. M., Mikhalenko, V., Mortyn, P. G., Motoyama, H., Moy, A. D., Mulvaney, R., Munz, P. M., Nash, D. J., Oerter, H., Opel, T., Orsi, A. J., Ovchinnikov, D. V., Porter, T. J., Roop, H. A., Saenger, C., Sano, M., Sauchyn, D., Saunders, K. M., Seidenkrantz, M. -S., Severi, M., Shao, X., Sicre, M. -A., Sigl, M., Sinclair, K., St George, S., St Jacques, J. -M., Thamban, M., Thapa, U. K., Thomas, E. R., Turney, C., Uemura, R., Viau, A. E., Vladimirova, D. O., Wahl, E. R., White, J. W. C., Yu, Z., Zinke, J., École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226, and UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate

Subjects
Data Descriptor, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410::Statistics: 412, VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410::Statistikk: 412, F800, computer.software_genre, Palaeoclimate, 01 natural sciences, Proxy (climate), CECI [CISM], calcification, data integration objective, Climate change, trace metal analysis, 910 Geography & travel, geography.geographical_feature_category, Database, G500, data acquisition system, temperature of environmental material, Computer Science Applications, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Temperature reconstruction, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Tree ring, Geology, wood, Information Systems, Statistics and Probability, glacial ice, radiance, 010506 paleontology, observation design, Library and Information Sciences, archaeal metabolite, Education, time series design, stable isotope analysis, Dendrochronology, 550 Earth sciences & geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, geography, Global temperature, Glacier, 15. Life on land, Sea surface temperature, sediment, 13. Climate action, North Atlantic oscillation, Oceanic basin, computer
Abstract

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python., PAGES, a core project of Future Earth, is supported by the U.S. and Swiss National Science Foundations. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Some of this work was conducted as part of the North America 2k Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the U.S. Geological Survey. B. Bauer, W. Gross, and E. Gille (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) are gratefully acknowledged for helping assemble the data citations and creating the NCEI versions of the PAGES 2k data records. We thank all the investigators whose commitment to data sharing enables the open science ethos embodied by this project.

Published
2017
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