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Abstract Background There is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya. Methods We fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6–23 months (strategy I), 2–5 years (strategy II) and 6–14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1–51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17–$872). Results The mean number of infections across all ages was 2–15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6–23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2–5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6–14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination strategy was cost-effective at the minimum ($17) and median ($445) WTP thresholds. Vaccinating children 6–23 months once a year had the highest mean INMB value at $872 (WTP threshold upper limit); however, this strategy had very low probability of the highest net benefit. Conclusion Vaccinating children 6–23 months once a year was the most favourable vaccination option; however, the strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective given the current WTP thresholds.

Campylobacteriosis and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are global public health concerns. Africa is estimated to have the world’s highest incidence of campylobacteriosis and a relatively high prevalence of AMR in Campylobacter spp. from humans and animals. Few studies have compared Campylobacter spp. isolated from humans and poultry in Africa using whole-genome sequencing and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. We explored the population structure and AMR of 178 Campylobacter isolates from East Africa, 81 from patients with diarrhea in Kenya and 97 from 56 poultry samples in Tanzania, collected during 2006–2017. Sequence type diversity was high in both poultry and human isolates, with some sequence types in common. The estimated prevalence of multidrug resistance, defined as resistance to >3 antimicrobial classes, was higher in poultry isolates (40.9%, 95% credible interval 23.6%–59.4%) than in human isolates (2.5%, 95% credible interval 0.3%–6.8%), underlining the importance of antimicrobial stewardship in livestock systems.

Abstract Introduction Adverse birth outcomes particularly preterm births and congenital anomalies, are the leading causes of infant mortality globally, and the burden is highest in developing countries. We set out to determine the frequency of adverse birth outcomes and the risk factors associated with such outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women in Kenya. Methods From October 2017 to July 2019, pregnant women

Abstract Objective: Identifying factors that may influence aflatoxin exposure in children under 5 years of age living in farming households in western Kenya. Design: We used a mixed methods design. The quantitative component entailed serial cross-sectional interviews in 250 farming households to examine crop processing and conservation practices, household food storage and consumption and local understandings of aflatoxins. Qualitative data collection included focus group discussions (N 7) and key informant interviews (N 13) to explore explanations of harvesting and post-harvesting techniques and perceptions of crop spoilage. Setting: The study was carried out in Asembo, a rural community where high rates of child stunting exist. Participants: A total of 250 female primary caregivers of children under 5 years of age and thirteen experts in farming and food management participated. Results: Study results showed that from a young age, children routinely ate maize-based dishes. Economic constraints and changing environmental patterns guided the application of sub-optimal crop practices involving early harvest, poor drying, mixing spoiled with good cereals and storing cereals in polypropylene bags in confined quarters occupied by humans and livestock and raising risks of aflatoxin contamination. Most (80 %) smallholder farmers were unaware of aflatoxins and their harmful economic and health consequences. Conclusions: Young children living in subsistence farming households may be at risk of exposure to aflatoxins and consequent ill health and stunting. Sustained efforts to increase awareness of the risks of aflatoxins and control measures among subsistence farmers could help to mitigate practices that raise exposure.

In sub-Saharan Africa, reported COVID-19 numbers have been lower than anticipated, even when considering populations' younger age. The extent to which risk factors, established in industrialised countries, impact the risk of infection and of disease in populations in sub-Saharan Africa, remains unclear. We estimated the incidence of mild and moderate COVID-19 in urban Mozambique and analysed factors associated with infection and disease in a population-based surveillance study. During December 2020-March 2022, 1,561 households (6,049 participants, median 21 years, 54.8% female, 7.3% disclosed HIV positive) of Polana Caniço, Maputo, Mozambique, were visited biweekly to report respiratory symptoms, anosmia, or ageusia, and self-administer a nasal swab for SARS-CoV-2 testing. Every three months, dried blood spots of a subset of participants (1,412) were collected for detection of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and nucleocapsid protein. Per 1000 person-years, 364.5 (95%CI 352.8-376.1) respiratory illness episodes were reported, of which 72.2 (95%CI 60.6-83.9) were COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence rose from 4.8% (95%CI 1.1-8.6%) in December 2020 to 34.7% (95%CI 20.2-49.3%) in June 2021, when 3.0% were vaccinated. Increasing age, chronic lung disease, hypertension, and overweight increased risk of COVID-19. Older age increased the risk of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion. We observed no association between socio-economic status, behaviour and COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion. Active surveillance in an urban population confirmed frequent COVID-19 underreporting, yet indicated that the large majority of cases were mild and non-febrile. In contrast to reports from industrialised countries, social deprivation did not increase the risk of infection nor disease.

Acute febrile illness (AFI) is a common reason for healthcare seeking and hospitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa and is often presumed to be malaria. However, a broad range of pathogens cause fever, and more comprehensive data on AFI etiology can improve clinical management, prevent unnecessary prescriptions, and guide public health interventions. We conducted surveillance for AFI (temperature ≥38.0°C

IntroductionMeasurement error in gestational age (GA) may bias the association of GA with a health outcome. Ultrasound-based GA is considered the gold standard and is not readily available in low-resource settings. We corrected for measurement error in GA based on fundal height (FH) and date of last menstrual period (LMP) using ultrasound from the sub-cohort and adjusted for the bias in associating GA with neonatal mortality and low birth weight (

Abstract Background Understanding healthcare-seeking patterns for respiratory illness can help improve estimation of disease burden and target public health interventions to control acute respiratory disease in Kenya. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey to determine healthcare utilization patterns for acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe pneumonia in four diverse counties representing urban, peri-urban, rural mixed farmers, and rural pastoralist communities in Kenya using a two-stage (sub-locations then households) cluster sampling procedure. Healthcare seeking behavior for ARI episodes in the last 14 days, and severe pneumonia in the last 12 months was evaluated. Severe pneumonia was defined as reported cough and difficulty breathing for > 2 days and report of hospitalization or recommendation for hospitalization, or a danger sign (unable to breastfeed/drink, vomiting everything, convulsions, unconscious) for children

Abstract Background Zika virus (ZIKV), first discovered in Uganda in 1947, re-emerged globally in 2013 and was later associated with microcephaly and other birth defects. We determined the incidence of ZIKV infection and its association with adverse pregnancy and fetal outcomes in a pregnancy cohort in Kenya. Methods From October 2017 to July 2019, we recruited and followed up women aged ≥ 15 years and ≤ 28 weeks pregnant in three hospitals in coastal Mombasa. Monthly follow-up included risk factor questions and a blood sample collected for ZIKV serology. We collected anthropometric measures (including head circumference), cord blood, venous blood from newborns, and any evidence of birth defects. Microcephaly was defined as a head circumference (HC)

Although seroprevalence of Middle East respiratory coronavirus syndrome is high among camels in Africa, researchers have not detected zoonotic transmission in Kenya. We followed a cohort of 262 camel handlers in Kenya during April 2018–March 2020. We report PCR-confirmed Middle East respiratory coronavirus syndrome in 3 asymptomatic handlers.

Abstract Background Maternal immunization is a key strategy for reducing morbidity and mortality associated with infectious diseases in mothers and their newborns. Recent developments in the science and safety of maternal vaccinations have made possible development of new maternal vaccines ready for introduction in low- and middle-income countries. Decisions at the policy level remain the entry point for maternal immunization programs. We describe the policy and decision-making process in Kenya for the introduction of new vaccines, with particular emphasis on maternal vaccines, and identify opportunities to improve vaccine policy formulation and implementation process. Methods We conducted 29 formal interviews with government officials and policy makers, including high-level officials at the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group, and Ministry of Health officials at national and county levels. All interviews were recorded and transcribed. We analyzed the qualitative data using NVivo 11.0 software. Results All key informants understood the vaccine policy formulation and implementation processes, although national officials appeared more informed compared to county officials. County officials reported feeling left out of policy development. The recent health system decentralization had both positive and negative impacts on the policy process; however, the negative impacts outweighed the positive impacts. Other factors outside vaccine policy environment such as rumours, sociocultural practices, and anti-vaccine campaigns influenced the policy development and implementation process. Conclusions Public policy development process is complex and multifaceted by its nature. As Kenya prepares for introduction of other maternal vaccines, it is important that the identified policy gaps and challenges are addressed.

Abstract Background Developing disease risk maps for priority endemic and episodic diseases is becoming increasingly important for more effective disease management, particularly in resource limited countries. For endemic and easily diagnosed diseases such as anthrax, using historical data to identify hotspots and start to define ecological risk factors of its occurrence is a plausible approach. Using 666 livestock anthrax events reported in Kenya over 60 years (1957–2017), we determined the temporal and spatial patterns of the disease as a step towards identifying and characterizing anthrax hotspots in the region. Methods Data were initially aggregated by administrative unit and later analyzed by agro-ecological zones (AEZ) to reveal anthrax spatio-temporal trends and patterns. Variations in the occurrence of anthrax events were estimated by fitting Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects models to the data with AEZs and calendar months as fixed effects and sub-counties as random effects. Results The country reported approximately 10 anthrax events annually, with the number increasing to as many as 50 annually by the year 2005. Spatial classification of the events in eight counties that reported the highest numbers revealed spatial clustering in certain administrative sub-counties, with 12% of the sub-counties responsible for over 30% of anthrax events, whereas 36% did not report any anthrax disease over the 60-year period. When segregated by AEZs, there was significantly greater risk of anthrax disease occurring in agro-alpine, high, and medium potential AEZs when compared to the agriculturally low potential arid and semi-arid AEZs of the country (p 10 times more likely to be infected by B. anthracis than sheep, goats, or camels. There was lower risk of anthrax events in August (P = 0.034) and December (P = 0.061), months that follow long and short rain periods, respectively. Conclusion Taken together, these findings suggest existence of certain geographic, ecological, and demographic risk factors that promote B. anthracis persistence and trasmission in the disease hotspots.

Maternal vaccination coverage remains suboptimal globally and is lowest in low- and middle-income countries. Attitudes toward maternal vaccines have been characterized in middle-high income settings, however data from African countries are limited. We assessed drivers and barriers of vaccine acceptance among pregnant women in Kenya. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among pregnant women aged 15–49 y. We enrolled a convenience sample of women presenting for antenatal care at seven health-care facilities in four diverse counties (Nairobi, Mombasa, Marsabit, Siaya) of Kenya and from the community in two counties (Nairobi, Siaya). We described frequencies of socio-demographic characteristics of participants and their knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding maternal vaccination. We enrolled 604 pregnant women with a median age of 26.5 y, of whom 48.2% had primary education or less. More than 95% agreed that maternal vaccines are “important for my health” and that getting vaccinated is “a good way to protect myself from disease”. The most commonly cited reason in favor of maternal vaccination was disease prevention (53.2%). Fear of side effects to mother/baby (15.1%) was the most frequently reported potential barrier. Influenza vaccine is not in routine use in Kenya; however, 77.8% reported willingness to accept influenza vaccination during pregnancy. Maternal vaccination is well accepted among Kenyan pregnant women. We identified the provision of adequate vaccine information and addressing safety concerns as opportunities to improve maternal vaccine uptake. The expressed willingness to receive a vaccine not currently in routine use bodes well for implementation of new maternal vaccines in Kenya.

Abstract Background The seroprevalence of brucellosis among nomadic pastoralists and their livestock in arid lands is reported to be over10-fold higher than non-pastoralists farmers and their livestock in Kenya. Here, we compared the seroprevalence of nomadic pastoralists and mixed farming with their knowledge of the disease and high-risk practices associated with brucellosis infection. Methods Across-sectional study was conducted in two counties - Kiambu County where farmers primarily practice smallholder livestock production and crop farming, and Marsabit County where farmers practice nomadic pastoral livestock production. Stratified random sampling was applied, in which sublocations were initially selected based on predominant livestock production system, before selecting households using randomly generated geographical coordinates. In each household, up to three persons aged 5 years and above were randomly selected, consented, and tested for Brucella spp IgG antibodies. A structured questionnaire was administered to the household head and selected individuals on disease knowledge and risky practices among the pastoralists and mixed farmers compared. Multivariable mixed effects logistic regression model was used to assess independent practices associated with human Brucella spp. IgG seropositivity. Results While the majority (74%) of pastoralist households had little to no formal education when compared to mixed (8%), over 70% of all households (pastoralists and mixed farmers) had heard of brucellosis and mentioned its clinical presentation in humans. However, fewer than 30% of all participants (pastoralists and mixed farmers) knew how brucellosis is transmitted between animals and humans or how its transmission can be prevented. Despite their comparable knowledge, significantly more seropositive pastoralists compared to mixed farmers engaged in risky practices including consuming unboiled milk (79.5% vs 1.7%, p

Objectives The widespread use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) by patients with chronic conditions raised early concerns on the potential exacerbation of COVID-19 severity and fatality. Previous studies addressing this question have used standard methods that may lead to biased estimates when analysing hospital data because of the presence of competing events and event-related dependency. We investigated the association of ACEIs/ARBs’ use with COVID-19 disease outcomes using time-to-event data in a multistate setting to account for competing events and minimise bias.Setting Nationwide surveillance data from 119 Belgian hospitals.Participants Medical records of 10 866 patients hospitalised from 14 March 2020to 14 June 2020 with a confirmed SARS-CoV-19 infection and information about ACEIs/ARBs’ use.Primary outcome measure Multistate, multivariate Cox-Markov models were used to estimate the hazards of patients transitioning through health states from admission to discharge or death, along with transition probabilities calculated by combining the baseline cumulative hazard and regression coefficients.Results After accounting for potential confounders, there was no discernable association between ACEIs/ARBs’ use and transfer to intensive care unit (ICU). Contrastingly, for patients without ICU transfer, ACEIs/ARBs’ use was associated with a modest increase in recovery (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13, p=0.027) and reduction in fatality (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.93, p=0.001) transitions. For patients transferred to ICU admission, no evidence of an association between ACEIs/ARBs’ use and recovery (HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.38, p=0.098) or in-hospital death (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.12, p=0.381) was observed. Male gender and older age were significantly associated with higher risk of ICU admission or death. Chronic cardiometabolic comorbidities were also associated with less recovery.Conclusions For the first time, a multistate model was used to address magnitude and direction of the association of ACEIs/ARBs’ use on COVID-19 progression. By minimising bias, this study provided a robust indication of a protective, although modest, association with recovery and survival.

Acute Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has not been confirmed in Kenya. In 2018, we used specimens collected in a 2013 dengue serosurvey study in Mombasa to test for ZIKV IgM. We confirmed specific ZIKV IgM positivity in 5 persons. These results suggest recent ZIKV transmission in the coastal region of Kenya.

Background: The World Health Organization recommends that children aged ≥6 months be vaccinated against influenza. Influenza vaccination policies depend on the evidence of the burden of influenza, yet few national data on influenza-associated severe outcomes among children exist in China. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of articles published from 1996 to 2012 on laboratory-confirmed, influenza-associated paediatric respiratory hospitalizations in China. We extracted data and stratified the percentage of samples testing positive for influenza by age group (

The majority of Kenya’s > 3 million camels have antibodies against Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), although human infection in Africa is rare. We enrolled 243 camels aged 0–24 months from 33 homesteads in Northern Kenya and followed them between April 2018 to March 2020. We collected and tested camel nasal swabs for MERS-CoV RNA by RT-PCR followed by virus isolation and whole genome sequencing of positive samples. We also documented illnesses (respiratory or other) among the camels. Human camel handlers were also swabbed, screened for respiratory signs, and samples were tested for MERS-CoV by RT-PCR. We recorded 68 illnesses among 58 camels, of which 76.5% (52/68) were respiratory signs and the majority of illnesses (73.5% or 50/68) were recorded in 2019. Overall, 124/4692 (2.6%) camel swabs collected from 83 (34.2%) calves in 15 (45.5%) homesteads between April–September 2019 screened positive, while 22 calves (26.5%) recorded reinfections (second positive swab following ≥ 2 consecutive negative tests). Sequencing revealed a distinct Clade C2 virus that lacked the signature ORF4b deletions of other Clade C viruses. Three previously reported human PCR positive cases clustered with the camel infections in time and place, strongly suggesting sporadic transmission to humans during intense camel outbreaks in Northern Kenya.

Summary: The failure to mount an antibody response following viral infection or seroconversion failure is a largely underappreciated and poorly understood phenomenon. Here, we identified immunologic markers associated with robust antibody responses after influenza virus infection in two independent human cohorts, SHIVERS and FLU09, based in Auckland, New Zealand and Memphis, Tennessee, USA, respectively. In the SHIVERS cohort, seroconversion significantly associates with (1) hospitalization, (2) greater numbers of proliferating, activated CD4+ T cells, but not CD8+ T cells, in the periphery during the acute phase of illness, and (3) fewer inflammatory monocytes (CD14hiCD16+) by convalescence. In the FLU09 cohort, fewer CD14hiCD16+ monocytes during early illness in the nasal mucosa were also associated with the generation of influenza-specific mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) and IgG antibodies. Our study demonstrates that seroconversion failure after infection is a definable immunological phenomenon, associated with quantifiable cellular markers that can be used to improve diagnostics, vaccine efficacy, and epidemiologic efforts.

Background: Maternal immunization is known to be one of the best strategies to protect both mothers and their infants from infectious diseases. Studies have shown that healthcare providers play a critical role in implementation of maternal immunization. However, little is known about providers’ attitudes and beliefs towards vaccination that can influence their vaccine recommendations, specifically in low to middle income countries (LMIC). Methods: A self-administrated knowledge, attitude and behavior (KAB) survey was provided to 150 antenatal care providers across four different regions (Nairobi, Mombasa, Marsabit, and Siaya counties) of Kenya. The research staff visited the 150 clinics and hospitals and distributed a quantitative KAB survey. Results: Nearly all of the antenatal care providers (99%) recommended tetanus maternal vaccination. Similarly, 99% of the providers agreed that they would agree to provide additional vaccinations for pregnant women and reported that they always advise their patients to get vaccinated. Between 80 and 90% of the providers reported that religious beliefs, ethnicity, cultural background and political leaders do not affect their attitude or beliefs towards recommending vaccines. Conclusions: Considering the positive responses of healthcare providers towards vaccine acceptance and recommendation, these results highlight an opportunity to work in partnership with these providers to improve coverage of maternal vaccination and to introduce additional vaccines (such as influenza). In order to achieve this, logistical barriers that have affected the coverage of the currently recommended vaccines, should be addressed as part of this partnership.

BackgroundInfluenza is a cause of febrile acute respiratory infection (FARI) in India; however, few influenza vaccine trials have been conducted in India. We assessed absolute and relative efficacy of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) and inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) among children aged 2 to 10 years in rural India through a randomized, triple-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted over 2 years.Methods and findingsIn June 2015, children were randomly allocated to LAIV, IIV, intranasal placebo, or inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in a 2:2:1:1 ratio. In June 2016, vaccination was repeated per original allocation. Overall, 3,041 children received LAIV (n = 1,015), IIV (n = 1,010), nasal placebo (n = 507), or IPV (n = 509). Mean age of children was 6.5 years with 20% aged 9 to 10 years. Through weekly home visits, nasal and throat swabs were collected from children with FARI and tested for influenza virus by polymerase chain reaction. The primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated FARI; vaccine efficacy (VE) was calculated using modified intention-to-treat (mITT) analysis by Cox proportional hazards model (PH) for each year. In Year 1, VE was 40.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 25.2 to 51.9) for LAIV and 59.0% (95% CI 47.8 to 67.9) for IIV compared with controls; relative efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV was -46.2% (95% CI -88.9 to -13.1). In Year 2, VE was 51.9% (95% CI 42.0 to 60.1) for LAIV and 49.9% (95% CI 39.2 to 58.7) for IIV; relative efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV was 4.2% (95% CI -19.9 to 23.5). No serious adverse vaccine-attributable events were reported. Study limitations include differing dosage requirements for children between nasal and injectable vaccines (single dose of LAIV versus 2 doses of IIV) in Year 1 and the fact that immunogenicity studies were not conducted.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that LAIV and IIV vaccines were safe and moderately efficacious against influenza virus infection among Indian children.Trial registrationClinical Trials Registry of India CTRI/2015/06/005902.

BackgroundBrucellosis occurs globally with highly variable incidence in humans from very low in North America and Western Europe to high in the Middle East and Asia. There are few data in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study estimated the incidence of human brucellosis in a pastoralist community in Kenya.MethodsBetween February 2015 and January 2016, we enrolled persons living in randomly selected households in Kajiado County. Free health care was offered at three facilities in the study area. Those who met the study clinical case definition completed a standardized questionnaire on demographics, clinical history and presentation. A blood sample was collected and tested by Rose Bengal test (RBT), then later tested at the Kenya Medical Research Institute laboratory for Brucella IgG and IgM by ELISA. Those who tested positive by both RBT and ELISA (IgG or IgM antibodies) were classified as confirmed while those that only tested positive for IgG or IgM antibodies were classified as probable. Further, sera were tested by polymerase chain reaction using a TaqMan Array Card (TAC) for a panel of pathogens causing AFI including Brucella spp. Annual incidence of brucellosis was calculated as the number of confirmed cases in one year/total number in the study population.ResultsWe enrolled a cohort of 4746 persons in 804 households. Over half (52.3%) were males and the median age was 18 years (Interquartile range (IQR) 9 months- 32 years). A total of 236 patients were enrolled at three health facilities; 64% were females and the median age was 40.5 years (IQR 28-53 years). Thirty-nine (16.5%) were positive for Brucella antibodies by IgG ELISA, 5/236 (2.1%) by IgM ELISA and 4/236 (1.7%) by RBT. Ten percent (22/217) were positive by TAC. We confirmed four (1.7%) brucellosis cases giving an annual incidence of 84/100,000 persons/year (95% CI 82, 87). The incidence did not significantly vary by gender, age and location of residence.ConclusionWe report a high incidence of brucellosis in humans among members of this pastoralist community. Brucellosis was the most common cause of febrile illness in this community.

The magnitude of future waves of Covid19 in a population will depend, in part, on the percentage of that population already infected, recovered, and presumably immune. Sero-epidemiological surveys can define the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in various populations. However, sero-surveys are resource-intensive and methodologically challenging, limiting widespread use. We propose a relatively simple method for calculating the percentage of a population infected, which depends on the number of reported Covid19 deaths, a figure usually more reliable and less dependent on variable testing practices than the total number of reported Covid19 cases, and the infection fatality rate, a figure that is relatively stable in similar populations. The method can be applied in different sized areas, such as states, districts, or cities. Such an approach can provide useful, real-time estimates of probable population immunity in settings unable to undertake multiple sero-surveys. This method is applicable to low- and lower-middle-income country (LMIC) settings where sero-survey data will likely be limited; however, better estimates of infection fatality rates and Covid19 death counts in LMICs are needed to improve the method’s accuracy. Information on the percentage of a population infected will help public health authorities in planning for future waves of Covid19, including where to most effectively deploy vaccines.

Background. Expansion of maternal immunization, which offers some of the most effective protection against morbidity and mortality in pregnant women and neonates, requires broad acceptance by healthcare providers and their patients. We aimed to describe issues surrounding acceptance and demand creation for maternal vaccines in Kenya from a provider perspective. Methods. Nurses and clinical officers were recruited for semi-structured interviews covering resources for vaccine delivery, patient education, knowledge and attitudes surrounding maternal vaccines, and opportunities for demand creation for new vaccines. Interviews were conducted in English and Swahili, transcribed verbatim from audio recordings, and analyzed using codes developed from interview guide questions and emergent themes. Results. Providers expressed favorable attitudes about currently available maternal immunizations and introduction of additional vaccines, viewing themselves as primarily responsible for vaccine promotion and patient education. The importance of educational resources for both patients and providers to maintain high levels of maternal immunization coverage was a common theme. Most identified barriers to vaccine acceptance and delivery were cultural and systematic in nature. Suggestions for improvement included improved patient and provider education, including material resources, and community engagement through religious and cultural leaders. Conclusions. The distribution of standardized, evidence-based print materials for patient education may reduce provider overwork and facilitate in-clinic efforts to inform women about maternal vaccines. Continuing education for providers should address communication surrounding current vaccines and those under consideration for introduction into routine schedules. Engagement of religious and community leaders, as well as male decision-makers in the household, will enhance future acceptance of maternal vaccines.

Acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, with most ALRI deaths occurring in children in developing countries. Computational models can be used to test the efficacy of respiratory infection prevention interventions, but require data on social mixing patterns, which are sparse in developing countries. We describe social mixing patterns among a rural community in northern India. During October 2015-February 2016, trained field workers conducted cross-sectional face-to-face standardized surveys in a convenience sample of 330 households in Faridabad District, Haryana State, India. Respondents were asked about the number, duration, and setting of social interactions during the previous 24 hours. Responses were compared by age and gender. Among the 3083 residents who were approached, 2943 (96%) participated, of whom 51% were male and the median age was 22 years (interquartile range (IQR) 9-37). Respondents reported contact (defined as having had a face-to-face conversation within 3 feet, which may or may not have included physical contact) with a median of 17 (IQR 12-25) people during the preceding 24 hours. Median total contact time per person was 36 person-hours (IQR 26-52). Female older children and adults had significantly fewer contacts than males of similar age (Kruskal-Wallis χ2 = 226.59, p

BACKGROUND:The South African Department of Health (DOH) publishes annual guidelines identifying priority groups, including immunosuppressed individuals and healthcare workers (HCW), for influenza vaccination and treatment. How these guidelines have impacted HCW and their patients, particularly those infected with HIV, remains unknown. METHODS:We aimed to describe the knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding influenza and the vaccine among South African HCW. Surveys were distributed by two local non-governmental organizations in public health clinics and hospitals in 21 districts/municipalities (5 of 9 provinces). RESULTS:There were 1164 respondents; median age 41 years; 978/1126 (87%) female; 801/1122 (71%) nurses. One-third (34%) of HCW reported getting influenza vaccine 2013/2014 and most (94%) recommended influenza vaccine to patients infected with HIV. Ability to get vaccine free of charge (aOR 1.69; 95% CI 1.21-2.37) and having received influenza government training (aOR 1.50; 95% CI 1.04-2.15) were significantly associated with self-reported vaccination in 2013/2014. Self-reported 2013/2014 vaccination (aOR 3.76; 95% CI 1.28-11.03) and availability of influenza vaccine during the healthcare visit (aOR 2.56; 95% CI 1.18-5.57) were significantly associated with recommending influenza vaccine to patients infected with HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSION:Only one-third of participants were vaccinated in 2013-2014 but those who were vaccinated were more likely to recommend vaccination to their patients. Free and close access to influenza vaccine were associated with a higher likelihood of getting vaccinated in 2013/2014. HCW who reported getting the influenza vaccine themselves, had vaccine to offer during the patient consult and were familiar with DOH guidelines/trainings were more likely to recommend vaccine to HIV-infected patients.

Objective To characterize influenza seasonality and identify the best time of the year for vaccination against influenza in tropical and subtropical countries of southern and south-eastern Asia that lie north of the equator. Methods Weekly influenza surveillance data for 2006 to 2011 were obtained from Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Weekly rates of influenza activity were based on the percentage of all nasopharyngeal samples collected during the year that tested positive for influenza virus or viral nucleic acid on any given week. Monthly positivity rates were then calculated to define annual peaks of influenza activity in each country and across countries. Findings Influenza activity peaked between June/July and October in seven countries, three of which showed a second peak in December to February. Countries closer to the equator had year-round circulation without discrete peaks. Viral types and subtypes varied from year to year but not across countries in a given year. The cumulative proportion of specimens that tested positive from June to November was > 60% in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Thus, these tropical and subtropical countries exhibited earlier influenza activity peaks than temperate climate countries north of the equator. Conclusion Most southern and south-eastern Asian countries lying north of the equator should consider vaccinating against influenza from April to June; countries near the equator without a distinct peak in influenza activity can base vaccination timing on local factors.

Background: Recent experience with pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 highlighted the importance of global surveillance for severe respiratory disease to support pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza control. Improved surveillance in the southern hemisphere is needed to provide critical data on influenza epidemiology, disease burden, circulating strains and effectiveness of influenza prevention and control measures. Hospital-based surveillance for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases was established in New Zealand on 30 April 2012. The aims were to measure incidence, prevalence, risk factors, clinical spectrum and outcomes for SARI and associated influenza and other respiratory pathogen cases as well as to understand influenza contribution to patients not meeting SARI case definition. Methods/Design: All inpatients with suspected respiratory infections who were admitted overnight to the study hospitals were screened daily. If a patient met the World Health Organization’s SARI case definition, a respiratory specimen was tested for influenza and other respiratory pathogens. A case report form captured demographics, history of presenting illness, co-morbidities, disease course and outcome and risk factors. These data were supplemented from electronic clinical records and other linked data sources. Discussion: Hospital-based SARI surveillance has been implemented and is fully functioning in New Zealand. Active, prospective, continuous, hospital-based SARI surveillance is useful in supporting pandemic preparedness for emerging influenza A(H7N9) virus infections and seasonal influenza prevention and control.

Data needed to guide influenza vaccine policies are lacking in tropical countries. We multiplied the number of severe acute respiratory infections by the proportion testing positive for influenza. There were ≈6,699 influenza hospitalizations and 803 deaths in Costa Rica during 2009–2012, supporting continuation of a national influenza vaccine program.

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most significant pandemic recorded in human history. Worldwide, an estimated half billion persons were infected and 20 to 100 million people died in three waves during 1918 to 1919. Yet the impact of this pandemic has been poorly documented in many countries especially those in Africa. We used colonial-era records to describe the impact of 1918 influenza pandemic in the Coast Province of Kenya. We gathered quantitative data on facility use and all-cause mortality from 1912 to 1925, and pandemic-specific data from active reporting from September 1918 to March 1919. We also extracted quotes from correspondence to complement the quantitative data and describe the societal impact of the pandemic. We found that crude mortality rates and healthcare utilization increased six- and three-fold, respectively, in 1918, and estimated a pandemic mortality rate of 25.3 deaths/1000 people/year. Impact to society and the health care system was dramatic as evidenced by correspondence. In conclusion, the 1918 pandemic profoundly affected Coastal Kenya. Preparation for the next pandemic requires continued improvement in surveillance, education about influenza vaccines, and efforts to prevent, detect and respond to novel influenza outbreaks.

OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in mortality from respiratory disease in several areas of Latin America between 1998 and 2009. METHODS: The numbers of deaths attributed to respiratory disease between 1998 and 2009 were extracted from mortality data from Argentina, southern Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Paraguay. Robust linear models were then fitted to the rates of mortality from respiratory disease recorded between 2003 and 2009. FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2008, rates of mortality from respiratory disease gradually decreased in all age groups in most of the study areas. Among children younger than 5 years, for example, the annual rates of such mortality - across all seven study areas - fell from 56.9 deaths per 100 000 in 1998 to 26.6 deaths per 100 000 in 2008. Over this period, rates of mortality from respiratory disease were generally highest among adults older than 65 years and lowest among individuals aged 5 to 49 years. In 2009, mortality from respiratory disease was either similar to that recorded in 2008 or showed an increase - significant increases were seen among children younger than 5 years in Paraguay, among those aged 5 to 49 years in southern Brazil, Mexico and Paraguay and among adults aged 50 to 64 years in Mexico and Paraguay. CONCLUSION: In much of Latin America, mortality from respiratory disease gradually fell between 1998 and 2008. However, this downward trend came to a halt in 2009, probably as a result of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic.

BACKGROUND:We combined hospital-based surveillance and health utilization survey data to estimate the incidence of respiratory viral infections associated hospitalization among children aged < 5 years in Bangladesh. METHODS:Surveillance physicians collected respiratory specimens from children aged