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Background and objectives For older patients with kidney failure, lowering symptom burden may be more important than prolonging life. Dialysis initiation may affect individual kidney failure-related symptoms differently, but the change in symptoms before and after start of dialysis has not been studied. Therefore, we investigated the course of total and individual symptom number and burden before and after starting dialysis in older patients.Design, setting, participants, & measurements The European Quality (EQUAL) study is an ongoing, prospective, multicenter study in patients >= 65 years with an incident eGFR

Introduction: Predicting the timing and occurrence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), cardiovascular events, and death among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) is clinically useful and relevant. We aimed to externally validate a recently developed CKD G4+ risk calculator for these outcomes and to assess its potential clinical impact in guiding vascular access placement. Methods: We included 1517 patients from the European Quality (EQUAL) study, a European multicentre prospective cohort study of nephrology-referred advanced CKD patients aged ≥65 years. Model performance was assessed based on discrimination and calibration. Potential clinical utility for timing of referral for vascular access placement was studied with diagnostic measures and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The model showed a good discrimination for KRT and “death after KRT,” with 2-year concordance (C) statistics of 0.74 and 0.76, respectively. Discrimination for cardiovascular events (2-year C-statistic: 0.70) and overall death (2-year C-statistic: 0.61) was poorer. Calibration was fairly accurate. Decision curves illustrated that using the model to guide vascular access referral would generally lead to less unused arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) than following estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) thresholds. Conclusion: This study shows moderate to good predictive performance of the model in an older cohort of nephrology-referred patients with advanced CKD. Using the model to guide referral for vascular access placement has potential in combating unnecessary vascular surgeries.

Background Therapeutic developments have contributed to markedly improved clinical outcomes in peritoneal dialysis (PD) during the 1990s and 2000s. We investigated whether recent advances in PD treatment are implemented in routine Swedish care and whether their implementation parallels improved patient outcomes. Methods We conducted an observational study of 3122 patients initiating PD in Sweden from 2006 to 2015. We evaluated trends of treatment practices (medications, PD-related procedures) and outcomes [patient survival, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), peritonitis, transfer to haemodialysis (HD) and kidney transplantation] and analysed associations of changes of treatment practices with changes in outcomes. Results Over the 10-year period, demographics (mean age 63 years, 33% women) and comorbidities remained essentially stable. There were changes in clinical characteristics (body mass index and diastolic blood pressure increased), prescribed drugs (calcium channel blockers, non-calcium phosphate binders and cinacalcet increased and the use of renin–angiotensin system inhibitors, erythropoietin and iron decreased) and dialysis treatment (increased use of automated PD, icodextrin and assisted PD). The standardized 1- and 2-year mortality and MACE risk did not change over the period. Compared with the general population, the risk of 1-year mortality was 4.1 times higher in 2006–2007 and remained stable throughout follow-up. However, the standardized 1- and 2-year peritonitis rate decreased and the incidence of kidney transplantation increased while transfers to HD did not change. Conclusions Over the last decade, treatment advances in PD patients were accompanied by a substantial decline in peritonitis frequency and an increased rate of kidney transplantations, while 1- and 2-year survival and MACE risk did not change., Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract

Background Various prediction models have been developed to predict the risk of kidney failure in patients with CKD. However, guideline-recommended models have yet to be compared head to head, their validation in patients with advanced CKD is lacking, and most do not account for competing risks. Methods To externally validate 11 existing models of kidney failure, taking the competing risk of death into account, we included patients with advanced CKD from two large cohorts: the European Quality Study (EQUAL), an ongoing European prospective, multicenter cohort study of older patients with advanced CKD, and the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR), an ongoing registry of nephrology-referred patients with CKD in Sweden. The outcome of the models was kidney failure (defined as RRT-treated ESKD). We assessed model performance with discrimination and calibration. Results The study included 1580 patients from EQUAL and 13,489 patients from SRR. The average c statistic over the 11 validated models was 0.74 in EQUAL and 0.80 in SRR, compared with 0.89 in previous validations. Most models with longer prediction horizons overestimated the risk of kidney failure considerably. The 5-year Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) overpredicted risk by 10%-\18%. The four- and eight-variable 2-year KFRE and the 4-year Grams model showed excellent calibration and good discrimination in both cohorts. Conclusions Some existing models can accurately predict kidney failure in patients with advanced CKD. KFRE performed well for a shorter time frame (2 years), despite not accounting for competing events. Models predicting over a longer time frame (5 years) overestimated risk because of the competing risk of death. The Grams model, which accounts for the latter, is suitable for longer-term predictions (4 years).

Data from the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR) show that during the period March 16, 2020 to March 15, 2021 0.4% of all renal transplant recipients and 3% of all dialysis patients died due to COVID-19 in Sweden. Of all registered deaths, 20% were attributed to COVID-19. In the age group 50-59 years the risk ratio for COVID-19 related mortality was 16 (95% CI 6.5-38) among transplant recipients and 22 (95% CI 7.1-69) among dialysis patients, compared to the background population in the same age group. Excess mortality, compared to the five years preceding the pandemic, was 30% for transplant recipients and 8.7% for dialysis patients, compared to 7.7% for the entire Swedish population. Detailed reports were sent to SRR for 864 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection representing 5.0% of all transplant recipients and 13% of all dialysis patients. The case fatality rate was 7.0% and 21% respectively.

BackgroundThe recent years have witnessed significant therapeutic advances for patients on haemodialysis (HD). We evaluated temporal changes in treatments practices and survival rates among incident HD patients.MethodsThis was an observational study of patients initiating HD in Sweden in 2006–15. Trends of HD-related practices, medications and routine laboratory biomarkers were evaluated. The incidence of death and major cardiovascular events (MACEs) across calendar years were compared against the age- and sex-matched general population. Via Cox regression, we explored whether adjustment for implementation of therapeutic advances modified observed survival and MACE risks.ResultsAmong 6612 patients, age and sex were similar, but the burden of comorbidities increased over time. The proportion of patients receiving treatment by haemodiafiltration, ≥3 sessions/week, lower ultrafiltration rate and working fistulas increased progressively, as did use of non-calcium phosphate binders, cinacalcet and vitamin D3. The standardized 1-year mortality decreased from 13.2% in 2006–07 to 11.1% in 2014–15. The risk of death decreased by 6% [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90–0.99] every 2 years, and the risk of MACE by 4% (HR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–1.00). Adjustment for changes in treatment characteristics abrogated these associations (HR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.92–1.09 for death and 1.00, 0.94–1.06 for MACE). Compared with the general population, the risk of death declined from 6 times higher in 2006–07 [standardized incidence rate ratio (sIRR) = 6.0, 95% CI 5.3–6.9] to 5.6 higher in 2014–15 (sIRR = 5.57, 95% CI 4.8–6.4).ConclusionsGradual implementation of therapeutic advances over the last decade was associated with a parallel reduction in short-term risk of death and MACE among HD patients.

Background Depressive symptoms are associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with end-stage kidney disease; however, few small studies have examined this association in patients with earlier phases of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We studied associations between baseline depressive symptoms and clinical outcomes in older patients with advanced CKD and examined whether these associations differed depending on sex. Methods CKD patients (≥65 years; estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤20 mL/min/1.73 m2) were included from a European multicentre prospective cohort between 2012 and 2019. Depressive symptoms were measured by the five-item Mental Health Inventory (cut-off ≤70; 0–100 scale). Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to study associations between depressive symptoms and time to dialysis initiation, all-cause mortality and these outcomes combined. A joint model was used to study the association between depressive symptoms and kidney function over time. Analyses were adjusted for potential baseline confounders. Results Overall kidney function decline in 1326 patients was –0.12 mL/min/1.73 m2/month. A total of 515 patients showed depressive symptoms. No significant association was found between depressive symptoms and kidney function over time (P = 0.08). Unlike women, men with depressive symptoms had an increased mortality rate compared with those without symptoms [adjusted hazard ratio 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.03–1.93)]. Depressive symptoms were not significantly associated with a higher hazard of dialysis initiation, or with the combined outcome (i.e. dialysis initiation and all-cause mortality). Conclusions There was no significant association between depressive symptoms at baseline and decline in kidney function over time in older patients with advanced CKD. Depressive symptoms at baseline were associated with a higher mortality rate in men.

The first dialysis treatment in Sweden of a patient with acute kidney failure was performed already in 1946 by the pioneer Nils Alwall in Lund. Since then, there has been a tremendous development in the practice of nephrology in Sweden. The first kidney transplant was performed in 1964, and during the following decades, dialysis and nephrology departments emerged in all regions of the country. Today, Sweden has 10 million inhabitants and about 10,000 patients on renal replacement therapy, corresponding to a prevalence of 1000 pmp, out of which about 60% have a functioning transplant. A vast majority is treated in public hospitals. Sweden has about 300 nephrologists, making up less than 1% of the physicians in the country. About 1100 patients start renal replacement therapy yearly corresponding to an incidence rate of 120 pmp, diabetes being the most common primary cause of uremia, although end-stage renal disease caused by type 1 diabetes is decreasing. The yearly incident rate has levelled off and now seems to decrease which may be attributed to an improved care of patients with chronic kidney disease.

Purpose: End-stage renal disease (ESRD) is a known risk factor for the development of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). This case-control study was performed to assess the risk in a nationwide cohort and evaluate tumor characteristics and survival in the ESRD-RCC population. Methods: In this study, 9,299 patients with RCC identified in the National Swedish Kidney Cancer Register from 2005 until 2014 and 93,895 matched controls were linked to the Swedish Renal Registry and the National Patient Register. ESRD was defined as chronic kidney disease stage 5, kidney transplantation or kidney dialysis 0–40 years before the diagnosis of RCC. Results: A total of 117 patients with ESRD and subsequent RCC were identified and compared with 9,087 patients with RCC. There was a 4.5-times increased risk for RCC among ESRD patients (95% CI = 3.6–5.6; p < 0.001) compared to matched controls. Longer time with ESRD increased the risk of RCC (ESRD > 9 years, OR = 10.2, 95% CI = 7.0–14.8). The ESRD-RCC patients were younger (p = 0.002), had smaller tumors (p < 0.001) and had lower tumor stage (p = 0.045). The incidence of papillary and chromophobe RCC was higher and clear cell RCC lower among the ESRD patients (p < 0.001). The 5-year overall survival was 50% in ESRD-RCC patients and 63% in RCC-only patients (p < 0.05). Conclusion: More than 9 years with ESRD increased the risk of developing RCC 10-times compared to individuals without ESRD and the tumors showed a different histopathological pattern. Despite a less advanced tumor stage at diagnosis, the overall survival in ESRD-RCC patients was lower compared to patients with RCC-only.

Background The European Renal Association – European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry collects data on kidney replacement therapy (KRT) via national and regional renal registries in Europe and countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. This article summarizes the 2018 ERA-EDTA Registry Annual Report, and describes the epidemiology of KRT for kidney failure in 34 countries. Methods Individual patient data on patients undergoing KRT in 2018 were provided by 34 national or regional renal registries and aggregated data by 17 registries. The incidence and prevalence of KRT, the kidney transplantation activity and the survival probabilities of these patients were calculated. Results In 2018, the ERA-EDTA Registry covered a general population of 636 million people. Overall, the incidence of KRT for kidney failure was 129 per million population (p.m.p.), 62% of patients were men, 51% were ≥65 years of age and 20% had diabetes mellitus as cause of kidney failure. Treatment modality at the onset of KRT was haemodialysis (HD) for 84%, peritoneal dialysis (PD) for 11% and pre-emptive kidney transplantation for 5% of patients. On 31 December 2018, the prevalence of KRT was 897 p.m.p., with 57% of patients on HD, 5% on PD and 38% living with a kidney transplant. The transplant rate in 2018 was 35 p.m.p.: 68% received a kidney from a deceased donor, 30% from a living donor and for 2% the donor source was unknown. For patients commencing dialysis during 2009–13, the unadjusted 5-year survival probability was 42.6%. For patients receiving a kidney transplant within this period, the unadjusted 5-year survival probability was 86.6% for recipients of deceased donor grafts and 93.9% for recipients of living donor grafts.

WOS:000577244700025 PubMed ID: 32897277 Background. This article presents a summary of the 2017 Annual Report of the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry and describes the epidemiology of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in 37 countries. Methods. The ERA-EDTA Registry received individual patient data on patients undergoing RRT for ESRD in 2017 from 32 national or regional renal registries and aggregated data from 21 registries. The incidence and prevalence of RRT, kidney transplantation activity and survival probabilities of these patients were calculated. Results. In 2017, the ERA-EDTA Registry covered a general population of 694 million people. The incidence of RRT for ESRD was 127 per million population (pmp), ranging from 37 pmp in Ukraine to 252 pmp in Greece. A total of 62% of patients were men, 52% were >= 65 years of age and 23% had diabetes mellitus as the primary renal disease. The treatment modality at the onset of RRT was haemodialysis for 85% of patients. On 31 December 2017, the prevalence of RRT was 854 pmp, ranging from 210 pmp in Ukraine to 1965 pmp in Portugal. The transplant rate in 2017 was 33 pmp, ranging from 3 pmp in Ukraine to 103 pmp in the Spanish region of Catalonia. For patients commencing RRT during 2008-12, the unadjusted 5-year patient survival probability for all RRT modalities combined was 50.8%. ERA-EDTA The ERA-EDTA Registry is funded by the ERA-EDTA. This article was written by Kramer et al. on behalf of the ERAEDTA Registry, which is an official body of the ERA-EDTA. In addition, M.F.S.R. reports personal fees from NxStage outside the submitted work and K.J.J. reports grants from the ERA-EDTA during the conduct of the study and a speaker fee from Fresenius Medical Care outside the submitted work.

Background The recent years have witnessed significant therapeutic advances for patients on haemodialysis (HD). We evaluated temporal changes in treatments practices and survival rates among incident HD patients. Methods This was an observational study of patients initiating HD in Sweden in 2006–15. Trends of HD-related practices, medications and routine laboratory biomarkers were evaluated. The incidence of death and major cardiovascular events (MACEs) across calendar years were compared against the age- and sex-matched general population. Via Cox regression, we explored whether adjustment for implementation of therapeutic advances modified observed survival and MACE risks. Results Among 6612 patients, age and sex were similar, but the burden of comorbidities increased over time. The proportion of patients receiving treatment by haemodiafiltration, ≥3 sessions/week, lower ultrafiltration rate and working fistulas increased progressively, as did use of non-calcium phosphate binders, cinacalcet and vitamin D3. The standardized 1-year mortality decreased from 13.2% in 2006–07 to 11.1% in 2014–15. The risk of death decreased by 6% [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90–0.99] every 2 years, and the risk of MACE by 4% (HR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–1.00). Adjustment for changes in treatment characteristics abrogated these associations (HR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.92–1.09 for death and 1.00, 0.94–1.06 for MACE). Compared with the general population, the risk of death declined from 6 times higher in 2006–07 [standardized incidence rate ratio (sIRR) = 6.0, 95% CI 5.3–6.9] to 5.6 higher in 2014–15 (sIRR = 5.57, 95% CI 4.8–6.4). Conclusions Gradual implementation of therapeutic advances over the last decade was associated with a parallel reduction in short-term risk of death and MACE among HD patients.

Background and Aims Although few randomized controlled trials have been able to demonstrate benefits of single treatments in improving outcomes of patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD), the last decades have witnessed significant therapeutic advances. This relates both to the HD treatment itself and to the management of patient complications. We here evaluated temporal changes in the use of evidence-based treatments and survival rates in incident HD patients. Method We included all patients initiating HD in Sweden between 2006-2015 and followed them until the end of 2017. Data were linked to national registries to retrieve information on date of death, cardiovascular events, comorbidity, and drug prescriptions. We first evaluated trends in the use of different HD related therapies and selected key therapeutic targets and medications in 2-year blocks. We then evaluated the incidence of death and major cardiovascular events (MACE) within one and two years from start of dialysis through standardized incidence rates via logistic regression models to account for differences in patient characteristics over time. Via Cox regression models, we explored whether adjustment for implementation of evidence-based treatments (e.g. hemodiafiltration (HDF), frequent HD, working fistula, drugs to control CKD-MBD, anemia) modified the observed survival and MACE risks. Finally, survival trends were also compared against an age-sex-calendar year-matched general Swedish population using standardized incidence ratios. Results We identified 6,612 patients starting HD in Sweden during the study period. There was no difference in mean age or proportion of women over time, but body mass index, serum parathyroid hormone levels and the proportion of patients with cerebrovascular disease, atrial fibrillation and cancer increased. Conversely, mean serum hemoglobin, phosphate and albumin values decreased over time. The proportion of patients who underwent HDF, had more than three HD sessions/week, and had a working fistula increased progressively, as well as the use of phosphate binders (particularly non-calcium), cinacalcet, and vitamin D3. After standardization for differences in demography and comorbidities, the one-year risk of mortality or MACE risk decreased by 7% and 16%, respectively, in 2014/15 compared to 2006/07. Similarly, the two-year risk of death or MACE decreased by 16 and 21%. In multivariable Cox models, we explored the linear association between calendar year blocks and study outcomes. Per 2-year period, the risk of death within one year decreased by 6% (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-1.00), and of MACE by 5% (0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.98). Adjustment for changes in the evidence-based treatments over time abrogated these associations (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.91-1.09 for death and 1.00, 95% CI 0.94-1.06 for MACE). Similar results were obtained for 2-year outcomes. Compared with the general population, the one-year risk of death for a HD patient was 6 times higher in 2006/2007 [standardized incidence rate ratio, SIR 6.05 (5.30–6.91)], but decreased to 5.5 times higher in 2014/15 [SIR 5.57 (4.82–6.44)], corresponding to a SIR reduction of 8%. Conclusion In patients initiating HD therapy in Sweden, there has been a gradual implementation of new and established evidence-based treatments during the last 10 years, which was associated with a parallel reduction in the risk of death and MACE.

Background and Aims The recent years have witnessed several therapeutic improvements regarding both peritoneal dialysis (PD) treatment itself and the prevention and management of complications. We evaluated trends in implementation of therapeutic improvements and their relationship with survival and other relevant clinical outcomes in PD patients from Sweden. Method Using the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR), clinical data from all patients initiating PD in Sweden between 2006 and 2015 were linked to other national healthcare registries to obtain information on vital status, hospitalization and diagnoses during in and out-patient care, along with information on all dispensed drugs, from inclusion to the end of 2017. We first evaluated trends in the use of PD-related treatments and of selected key medications within 2-year blocks. We then evaluated the incidence of death, major cardiovascular events (MACE), technique failure, transplantation and peritonitis episodes within one and two years from PD initiation using standardized incidence rates via logistic regression to account for differences in patient characteristics over time. In subsequent Cox regression models, we studied whether adjustment for implementation of these therapeutic changes modified observed trends in clinical outcomes. Finally, patient survival was compared against the age-sex matched general Swedish population using standardized incidence ratios (SIR). Results 3,312 patients (mean age 63±15 years; 34% women) initiated PD in Sweden during the study period. Across 2-year time blocks, there was no difference over time in the distribution of age, sex or comorbidities with the exception of an increased proportion of patients with chronic pulmonary disease. The proportion of patients undergoing automated peritoneal dialysis and using icodextrin increased over time, while mean standard Kt/V and weekly creatinine clearance did not change. The use of non-calcium phosphate binders, cinacalcet and calcium-channel blockers increased, and the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors /angiotensin receptor blockers, erythropoietin, iron, and calcium supplements showed decreasing trends. After standardization for differences in demography and comorbidities, the one-year incidence of peritonitis decreased by 13% and the rate of kidney transplantation increased by 52% in 2014/15 compared to 2006/07. The rates of death, MACE or technique failure did not show differences over time. Similar results were observed with 2-years of follow up and when applying Cox models; Per 2-year period, the risk of peritonitis within one year decreased by 8% (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.98) regardless of age, sex, comorbidity and the abovementioned therapeutic changes. The risk of death for PD patients was in 2006/2007 4 times higher [SIR 4.08 (3.15–5.29)] and in 2014/15 3.7 times higher [SIR 3.65 (2.70–4.94)] than the general population, corresponding to a reduction of SIR by 11%. Conclusion During the last 10 years, there has been a gradual implementation of new and established evidence-based treatments in patients starting PD in Sweden. Although survival rates are improving compared to the general population, there were no clear differences in the rates of technique failure, MACE or death across PD patients over time. We observed, however, consistent improvements in peritonitis frequency and access to transplantation.

Rationale & Objective Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health problem with increasing prevalence. Several sex-specific differences have been reported for disease progression and mortality. Selection and survival bias might have influenced the results of previous cohort studies. The objective of this study was to investigate sex-specific differences of CKD progression and mortality among patients with CKD not receiving maintenance dialysis. Study Design Observational cohort study. Setting & Participants Adult patients with incident CKD glomerular filtration rate categories 3b to 5 (G3b-G5) identified between 2010 and 2018 within the nationwide Swedish Renal Registry-CKD (SRR-CKD). Exposure Sex. Outcomes Time to CKD progression (defined as a change of at least 1 CKD stage or initiation of kidney replacement therapy [KRT]) or death. Repeated assessments of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Analytical Approach CKD progression and mortality before KRT were assessed by the cumulative incidence function methods and Fine and Gray models, with death handled as a competing event. Sex differences in eGFR slope were estimated using mixed effects linear regression models. Results 7,388 patients with incident CKD G3b, 18,282 with incident CKD G4, and 9,410 with incident CKD G5 were identified. Overall, 19.6 (95% CI, 19.2-20.0) patients per 100 patient-years progressed, and 10.1 (95% CI, 9.9-10.3) patients per 100 person-years died. Women had a lower risk of CKD progression (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85-0.92]), and a lower all-cause (SHR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85-0.94]) and cardiovascular (SHR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.76-0.90]) mortality risk. Risk factors related to a steeper decline in eGFR included age, sex, albuminuria, and type of primary kidney disease. Limitations Incomplete data for outpatient visits and laboratory measurements and regional differences in reporting. Conclusions Compared to women, men had a higher rate of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, an increased risk of CKD progression, and a steeper decline in eGFR.

BackgroundAlthough patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are gaining increased interest in developing health care quality and are a useful tool in person-centered care, their use in routine care is still limited. The aim of this study is to describe the implementation and initial results of PROMs via the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR) on a national level.MethodsAfter testing and piloting the electronic PROM application, nationwide measures were carried out in 2017 for completing the RAND-36 questionnaire online or by paper in a wide range of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients (Stages 3–5, dialysis and transplantation) through the SRR. Cross-sectional results during the first year were analyzed by descriptive statistics and stratified by treatment modality.ResultsA total of 1378 patients from 26 of 68 renal units (39%) completed the questionnaire. The response rate for all participating hemodialysis units was 38.9%. The CKD patients had an impaired health profile compared with a Swedish general population, especially regarding physical functions and assessed general health (GH). Transplanted patients had the highest scores, whereas patients on dialysis treatment had the lowest scores. The youngest age group assessed their physical function higher and experienced fewer physical limitations and less bodily pain than the other age groups but assessed their GH and vitality (VT) relatively low. The oldest age group demonstrated the lowest health profile but rated their mental health higher than the other age groups. The older the patient, the smaller the difference compared with persons of the same age in the general population.ConclusionsNationwide, routine collection of PROMs is feasible in Sweden. However, greater emphasis is needed on motivating clinical staff to embrace the tool and its possibilities in executing person-centered care. CKD patients demonstrate impaired health-related quality of life, especially regarding limitations related to physical problems, GH and VT/energy/fatigue.

Item does not contain fulltext BACKGROUND: Change in albuminuria as a surrogate endpoint for progression of chronic kidney disease is strongly supported by biological plausibility, but empirical evidence to support its validity in epidemiological studies is lacking. We aimed to assess the consistency of the association between change in albuminuria and risk of end-stage kidney disease in a large individual participant-level meta-analysis of observational studies. METHODS: In this meta-analysis, we collected individual-level data from eligible cohorts in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC) with data on serum creatinine and change in albuminuria and more than 50 events on outcomes of interest. Cohort data were eligible if participants were aged 18 years or older, they had a repeated measure of albuminuria during an elapsed period of 8 months to 4 years, subsequent end-stage kidney disease or mortality follow-up data, and the cohort was active during this consortium phase. We extracted participant-level data and quantified percentage change in albuminuria, measured as change in urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) or urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR), during baseline periods of 1, 2, and 3 years. Our primary outcome of interest was development of end-stage kidney disease after a baseline period of 2 years. We defined an end-stage kidney disease event as initiation of kidney replacement therapy. We quantified associations of percentage change in albuminuria with subsequent end-stage kidney disease using Cox regression in each cohort, followed by random-effects meta-analysis. We further adjusted for regression dilution to account for imprecision in the estimation of albuminuria at the participant level. We did multiple subgroup analyses, and also repeated our analyses using participant-level data from 14 clinical trials, including nine clinical trials not in CKD-PC. FINDINGS: Between July, 2015, and June, 2018, we transferred and analysed data from 28 cohorts in the CKD-PC, which included 693 816 individuals (557 583 [80%] with diabetes). Data for 675 904 individuals and 7461 end-stage kidney disease events were available for our primary outcome analysis. Change in ACR was consistently associated with subsequent risk of end-stage kidney disease. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for end-stage kidney disease after a 30% decrease in ACR during a baseline period of 2 years was 0.83 (95% CI 0.74-0.94), decreasing to 0.78 (0.66-0.92) after further adjustment for regression dilution. Adjusted HRs were fairly consistent across cohorts and subgroups (ie, estimated glomerular filtration rate, diabetes, and sex), but the association was somewhat stronger among participants with higher baseline ACR than among those with lower baseline ACR (pinteraction

Essentials Mortality due to bleeding vs. arterial thrombosis in dialysis patients is unknown. We compared death causes of 201 918 dialysis patients with the general population. Dialysis was associated with increased mortality risks of bleeding and arterial thrombosis. Clinicians should be aware of the increased bleeding and thrombosis risks. Summary: Background Dialysis has been associated with both bleeding and thrombotic events. However, there is limited information on bleeding as a cause of death versus arterial thrombosis as a cause of death. Objectives To investigate the occurrence of bleeding, myocardial infarction and stroke as causes of death in the dialysis population as compared with the general population. Methods We included 201 918 patients from 11 countries providing data to the ERA-EDTA Registry who started dialysis treatment between 1994 and 2011, and followed them for 3 years. Age-standardized and sex-standardized mortality rate ratios for bleeding, myocardial infarction and stroke as causes of death were calculated in dialysis patients as compared with the European general population. Associations between potential risk factors and these causes of death in dialysis patients were investigated by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by the use of Cox proportional-hazards regression. Results As compared with the general population, the age-standardized and sex-standardized mortality rate ratios in dialysis patients were 12.8 (95% CI 11.9–13.7) for bleeding as a cause of death (6.2 per 1000 person-years among dialysis patients versus 0.3 per 1000 person-years in the general population), 13.4 (95% CI 13.0–13.9) for myocardial infarction (22.5 versus 0.9 per 1000 person-years), and 12.4 (95% CI 11.9–12.9) for stroke (14.3 versus 0.7 per 1000 person-years). Conclusion Dialysis patients have highly increased risks of death caused by bleeding and arterial thrombosis as compared with the general population. Clinicians should be aware of the increased mortality risks caused by these conditions.

Rationale & Objective Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is complicated by abnormalities that reflect disruption in filtration, tubular, and endocrine functions of the kidney. Our aim was to explore the relationship of specific laboratory result abnormalities and hypertension with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria CKD staging framework. Study Design Cross-sectional individual participant-level analyses in a global consortium. Setting & Study Populations 17 CKD and 38 general population and high-risk cohorts. Selection Criteria for Studies Cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data for eGFR and albuminuria, as well as a measurement of hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, or calcium, or hypertension. Data Extraction Data were obtained and analyzed between July 2015 and January 2018. Analytical Approach We modeled the association of eGFR and albuminuria with hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, and calcium values using linear regression and with hypertension and categorical definitions of each abnormality using logistic regression. Results were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Results The CKD cohorts (n = 254,666 participants) were 27% women and 10% black, with a mean age of 69 (SD, 12) years. The general population/high-risk cohorts (n = 1,758,334) were 50% women and 2% black, with a mean age of 50 (16) years. There was a strong graded association between lower eGFR and all laboratory result abnormalities (ORs ranging from 3.27 [95% CI, 2.68-3.97] to 8.91 [95% CI, 7.22-10.99] comparing eGFRs of 15 to 29 with eGFRs of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m 2), whereas albuminuria had equivocal or weak associations with abnormalities (ORs ranging from 0.77 [95% CI, 0.60-0.99] to 1.92 [95% CI, 1.65-2.24] comparing urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 300 vs < 30 mg/g). Limitations Variations in study era, health care delivery system, typical diet, and laboratory assays. Conclusions Lower eGFR was strongly associated with higher odds of multiple laboratory result abnormalities. Knowledge of risk associations might help guide management in the heterogeneous group of patients with CKD. © 2018. This is the authors’ accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ "

Background: This article summarizes the European Renal Association - European Dialysis and Transplant Association Registry's 2014 annual report. It describes the epidemiology of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in 2014 within 35 countries. Methods: In 2016, the ERA-EDTA Registry received data on patients who in 2014 where undergoing RRT for ESRD, from 51 national or regional renal registries. Thirty-two registries provided individual patient level data and 19 provided aggregated patient level data. The incidence, prevalence and survival probabilities of these patients were determined. Results: In 2014, 70 953 individuals commenced RRT for ESRD, equating to an overall unadjusted incidence rate of 133 per million population (pmp). The incidence ranged by 10-fold; from 23 pmp in the Ukraine to 237 pmp in Portugal. Of the patients commencing RRT, almost two-thirds were men, over half were aged ≥65 years and a quarter had diabetes mellitus as their primary renal diagnosis. By day 91 of commencing RRT, 81% of patients were receiving haemodialysis. On 31 December 2014, 490 743 individuals were receiving RRT for ESRD, equating to an unadjusted prevalence of 924 pmp. This ranged throughout Europe by more than 10-fold, from 157 pmp in the Ukraine to 1794 pmp in Portugal. In 2014, 19 406 kidney transplantations were performed, equating to an overall unadjusted transplant rate of 36 pmp. Again this varied considerably throughout Europe. For patients commencing RRT during 2005-09, the 5-year-adjusted patient survival probabilities on all RRT modalities was 63.3% (95% confidence interval 63.0-63.6). The expected remaining lifetime of a 20- to 24-year-old patient with ESRD receiving dialysis or living with a kidney transplant was 21.9 and 44.0 years, respectively. This was substantially lower than the 61.8 years of expected remaining lifetime of a 20-year-old patient without ESRD., 0, SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Background: The impact of different dialysis modalities on clinical outcomes has not been explored in young infants with chronic kidney failure. Study Design: Cohort study. Setting & Participants: Data were extracted from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry. This analysis included 1,063 infants 12 months or younger who initiated dialysis therapy in 1991 to 2013. Factor: Type of dialysis modality. Outcomes & Measurements: Differences between infants treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) or hemodialysis (HD) in patient survival, technique survival, and access to kidney transplantation were examined using Cox regression analysis while adjusting for age at dialysis therapy initiation, sex, underlying kidney disease, and country of residence. Results: 917 infants initiated dialysis therapy on PD, and 146, on HD. Median age at dialysis therapy initiation was 4.5 (IQR, 0.7-7.9) months, and median body weight was 5.7 (IQR, 3.7-7.5) kg. Although the groups were homogeneous regarding age and sex, infants treated with PD more often had congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT; 48% vs 27%), whereas those on HD therapy more frequently had metabolic disorders (12% vs 4%). Risk factors for death were younger age at dialysis therapy initiation (HR per each 1-month later initiation, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97) and non-CAKUT cause of chronic kidney failure (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.08-2.04). Mortality risk and likelihood of transplantation were equal in PD and HD patients, whereas HD patients had a higher risk for changing dialysis treatment (adjusted HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.17-2.31). Limitations: Inability to control for unmeasured confounders not included in the Registry database and missing data (ie, comorbid conditions). Low statistical power because of relatively small number of participants. Conclusions: Despite a widespread preconception that HD should be reserved for cases in which PD is not feasible, in Europe, we found 1 in 8 infants in need of maintenance dialysis to be initiated on HD therapy. Patient characteristics at dialysis therapy initiation, prospective survival, and time to transplantation were very similar for infants initiated on PD or HD therapy. (C) 2016 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Background. Renal replacement therapy (RRT) incidence has increased significantly in Sweden during the past decades. This study analyses variations in time and regional trends in RRT incidence in Sweden, adjusted for age and gender, focusing on the impact change in incidence during the last decade. Methods. Using data from the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR) (21 counties in Sweden, total population 9 million), we identified all incident subjects starting RRT from 1991 through 2010. Only individuals alive following 90 days of RRT start were included. Gender- and age-specific standardized RRT incidences on an annual and regional basis were calculated, and differences between counties and variations over time were examined. We compared the overall age and gender-adjusted RRT incidence rates for Sweden by calendar year. Furthermore, we also calculated the age and gender-adjusted RRT incidence in each county during two time periods (1991–1999 versus 2000–2010). Results. There were 20 172 new subjects treated with RRT between January 1991 and December 2010. The most common cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was diabetes (24%) and hypertension/renal vascular disease (19%), followed by glomerulonephritis (16%). Sixty-four percent of new patients were male; the median age when commencing RRT was 66 years (10–90 percentiles; 39–80). The overall standardized RRT incidence reached its peak in 2000, and slowly decreased thereafter. A decrease in RRT incidence was observed over the study period in eight regions. The standardized RRT incidence varied between the different counties, from 0.82 to 1.19. Conclusions. Adjusted for demographic changes in the population, an overall decrease in RRT incidence was observed from the year 2000 onwards—suggesting that the previously reported steady increase in RRT incidence is coming to an end in Sweden. Noteworthy differences were found between counties and in 8 out of 21 counties, a decreased incidence of RRT was found. Further studies need to identify the factors that contribute to this decrease.

Background: This article provides a summary of the 2013 European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry Annual Report (available at http://www.era- edta-reg.org), with a focus on patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) as the cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Methods: In 2015, the ERA-EDTA Registry received data on renal replacement therapy (RRT) for ESRD from 49 national or regional renal registries in 34 countries in Europe and bordering the Mediterranean Sea. Individual patient data were provided by 31 registries, while 18 registries provided aggregated data. The total population covered by the participating registries comprised 650 million people. Results: In total, 72 933 patients started RRT for ESRD within the countries and regions reporting to the ERA-EDTA Registry, resulting in an overall incidence of 112 per million population (pmp). The overall prevalence on 31 December 2013 was 738 pmp (n = 478 990). Patients with DM as the cause of ESRD comprised 24% of the incident RRT patients (26 pmp) and 17% of the prevalent RRT patients (122 pmp). When compared with the USA, the incidence of patients starting RRT pmp secondary to DM in Europe was five times lower and the incidence of RRT due to other causes of ESRD was two times lower. Overall, 19 426 kidney transplants were performed (30 pmp). The 5-year adjusted survival for all RRT patients was 60.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 60.5-61.3] and 50.6% (95% CI 49.9- 51.2) for patients with DM as the cause of ESRD.

The Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Prognosis Consortium is a collaborative author of the above-mentioned article. The CKD Prognosis Consortium investigators/collaborators are as follows: • African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK): Brad Astor, Lawrence J. Appel; British Columbia CKD Study (BC CKD): Adeera Levin, Ognjenka Djurdjev; Canadian Study of Prediction of Death, Dialysis and Interim Cardiovascular Events (CanPREDDICT): Adeera Levin, Mila Tang, Ognjenka Djurdjev; Cleveland Clinic CKD Registry Study (CCF): Sankar D. Navaneethan, Stacey E. Jolly, Jesse D. Schold, Joseph V. Nally Jr; Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB): David C. Wheeler, Jonathan Emberson, John Townend, Martin Landray; Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC): Harold I. Feldman, Chi-yuan Hsu, James P. Lash, Lawrence J. Appel; Chronic Renal Insufficiency Standards Implementation Study (CRISIS): Philip A. Kalra, James P. Ritchie, Raman Maharajan, Helen Alderson, Beverly Lane; German Chronic Kidney Disease Study (GCKD): Kai-Uwe Eckardt, Markus P. Schneider, Anna Kottgen, Florian Kronenberg, Barbara Barthlein; Geisinger Health System: Alex R. Chang, Jamie A. Green, H. Lester Kirchner, Kevin Ho; Grampian Laboratory Outcomes, Morbidity and Mortality Studies – 2 (GLOMMS2): Angharad Marks, Corri Black, Gordon J. Prescott, Nick Fluck; Gonryo Study: Masaaki Nakayama, Mariko Miyazaki, Tae Yamamoto, Gen Yamada; Hong Kong CKD Studies: Angela Yee-Moon Wang, Sharon Cheung, Sharon Wong, Jessie Chu, Henry Wu; Maccabi Health System: Varda Shalev, Gabriel Chodick; Multifactorial Approach and Superior Treatment Efficacy in Renal Patients with the Aid of a Nurse Practitioner (MASTERPLAN): Peter J. Blankestijn, Jack F.M. Wetzels, Arjan D. van Zuilen, Jan A. van den Brand; Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study (MDRD): Andrew S. Levey, Lesley A. Inker, Mark J. Sarnak, Hocine Tighiouart; Nanjing CKD Network Cohort Study (Nanjing CKD): Haitao Zhang; NephroTest Study: Benedicte Stengel; National Renal Healthcare Program – Uruguay (NRHP-URU): Pablo G. Rios, Nelson Mazzuchi, Liliana Gadola, Veronica Lamadrid, Laura Sola; New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study (NZDCS): John F. Collins, C. Raina Elley, Timothy Kenealy; Parcours de Soins des Personnes Agees (PSPA): Olivier Moranne, Cecile Couchoud, Cecile Vigneau; Primary-Secondary Care Partnership to Prevent Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (PSP CKD): Nigel J. Brunskill, Rupert W. Major, David Shepherd, James F. Medcalf; Racial and Cardiovascular Risk Anomalies in CKD Cohort (RCAV): Csaba P. Kovesdy, Kamyar Kalantar-Zadeh, Miklos Z. Molnar, Keiichi Sumida, Praveen K. Potukuchi; Reduction of Endpoints in Non-insulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL): Hiddo J.L. Heerspink, Dick de Zeeuw, Barry Brenner; Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements Cohort (SCREAM): Juan Jesus Carrero, Peter Barany, Abdul Rashid Qureshi, Carl-Gustaf Elinder; Second Manifestations of ARTerial Disease Study (SMART): Frank L.J. Visseren, Yolanda van der Graaf; Swedish Renal Registry CKD Cohort (SRR CKD): Marie Evans, Maria Stendahl, Staffan Schon, Marten Segelmark, Karl-Goran Prutz; Sunnybrook Cohort: David M. Naimark, Navdeep Tangri; West of Scotland CKD Study: Patrick B. Mark, Jamie P. Traynor, Colin C. Geddes, Peter C. Thomson.• CKD Prognosis Consortium Steering Committee: Alex R. Chang, Josef Coresh (Chair), Ron T. Gansevoort, Morgan E. Grams, Anna Kottgen, Andrew S. Levey, Kunihiro Matsushita, Mark Woodward, Luxia Zhang.• CKD Prognosis Consortium Data Coordinating Center: Shoshana H. Ballew (Assistant Project Director), Jingsha Chen (Programmer), Josef Coresh (Principal Investigator), Morgan E. Grams (Director of Nephrology Initiatives), Lucia Kwak (Programmer), Kunihiro Matsushita (Director), Yingying Sang (Lead Programmer), Aditya Surapaneni (Programmer), Mark Woodward (Senior Statistician).• Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference on Prognosis and Optimal Management of Patients with Advanced CKD: Kai-Uwe Eckardt (Conference Co-Chair), Brenda R. Hemmelgarn (Conference Co-Chair), David C. Wheeler (KDIGO Co-Chair), Wolfgang C. Winkelmayer (KDIGO Co-Chair), John Davis (CEO), Danielle Green (Managing Director), Michael Cheung (Chief Scientific Officer), Tanya Green (Communications Director), Melissa McMahan (Programs Director).

The cell-cycle regulating protein p27(Kip1) (p27) has dual roles by acting as both a cdk inhibitor and as an assembly factor for different cdk complexes. Loss of p27 has been linked to malignant features in tumours; however, the exact role of p27 deregulation in breast cancer regarding prognostic and treatment predictive information has not been fully clarified. We have evaluated p27 expression in 328 primary, Stage II breast cancers from premenopausal patients who had been randomised to either tamoxifen treatment or no adjuvant treatment after surgery. p27 was associated with the oestrogen receptor and cyclin D1, and p27 downregulation was associated with high proliferation. There was no association between recurrence-free survival (RFS) and p27 (HR = 0.800, 95% CI 0.523-1.222, p = 0.300), indicating that p27 is not a prognostic marker. The predictive value of p27 was analysed by comparing RFS in tamoxifen-treated and untreated patients in subgroups of low and high p27 expression (HR = 0.747, 95% CI 0.335-1.664, p = 0.474 and HR = 0.401, 95% CI 0.240-0.670, p < 0.001, respectively). Only patients with p27-high tumours benefited from tamoxifen (multivariate interaction analysis p = 0.034). Our study suggests that p27 downregulation is associated with tamoxifen resistance in premenopausal breast cancer but is not linked to impaired prognosis.

Purpose: Tamoxifen has long been the drug of choice in adjuvant endocrine therapy of steroid hormone receptor–positive breast cancer, and it still remains important due to its well-documented beneficial effect. Hormone receptor status is often reported as “positive” or “negative” using 10% positive nuclei as a cutoff. In this study, we aimed to assess whether a further subclassification of hormone receptor status could enhance the treatment predictive value. Experimental Design: The immunohistochemical expression of estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) was quantified in tissue microarrays with tumors from 500 premenopausal breast cancer patients previously included in a randomized trial of adjuvant tamoxifen compared with an untreated control group. Results: Our findings show a gradually increasing tamoxifen effect in tumors with >10% ER-positive nuclei. However, when analyzing tamoxifen response according to various PR fractions, we found that it was primarily patients with tumors showing >75% PR-positive nuclei that responded to tamoxifen treatment, with an improved recurrence-free [relative risk, 0.42 (0.25-0.70); P = 0.001] as well as overall [relative risk, 0.49 (0.28-0.84); P = 0.010] survival. Conclusions: Adjuvant tamoxifen improved recurrence-free and overall survival for premenopausal patients with tumors showing >75% PR-positive nuclei. No effect could be shown in tumors with fewer PR-positive nuclei. The PR was a stronger predictor of treatment response than the ER. Based on these findings, we suggest the implementation of a fractioned rather than dichotomized immunohistochemical evaluation of hormone receptors in clinical practice, possibly with greater emphasis on the PR than the ER.

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF-A) is considered a prognostic indicator for clinical outcome in breast cancer. Conflicting results nevertheless exist and there is a need for larger studies including untreated patients in order to clarify the importance of tumor-specific VEGF-A regarding prognosis as well as potential links to predictive treatment information. VEGF-A and its receptor, vascular endothelial growth receptor 2 (VEGFR2), were therefore analyzed by immunohistochemistry in postmenopausal breast cancers enrolled in a clinical trial where patients were randomized to adjuvant tamoxifen treatment (n=124) for 2 years or no treatment (n=127) with a median follow-up of 18 years. The tumors were arranged in a tumor tissue microarray system enabling parallell analysis of the angiogenic factors and hormone receptor status. Tumor-specific expression of VEGFR2 correlated strongly with expression of VEGF-A and progesterone receptor (PR) negativity, whereas VEGF-A was not associated with hormone receptor status. Among patients with estrogen receptor (ER) positive (fraction > 10%) tumors, there was a statistically significant tamoxifen response in VEGF-A negative tumors at both 10-year and 18-year disease-free survival (DFS), contrasting to VEGF-A positive tumors who had no beneficial effect of tamoxifen. A treatment-interaction variable indicated a marked difference in tamoxifen response depending on VEGFA-status in terms of DFS at 10 and 18 years of follow-up, p=0.046 and p=0.039, respectively. VEGFR2 status did not yield significant predicitve information for tamoxifen response in patients with ER fraction > 10%, whereas in patients with ER fraction > 90% both VEGF-A and VEGFR2 status were associated with tamoxifen treatment effect.

Antioestrogen treatment by tamoxifen is a well-established adjuvant therapy for oestrogen receptor-alpha (ERalpha) positive breast cancer. Despite ERalpha expression some tumours do not respond to tamoxifen and we therefore delineated the potential link between the cell cycle regulator and ERalpha co-factor, cyclin D1, and tamoxifen response in a material of 167 postmenopausal breast cancers arranged in a tissue array. The patients had been randomised to 2 years of tamoxifen treatment or no treatment and the median follow-up time was 18 years. Interestingly in the 55 strongly ERalpha positive samples with moderate or low cyclin D1 levels, patients responded to tamoxifen treatment whereas the 46 patients with highly ERalpha positive and cyclin D1 overexpressing tumours did not show any difference in survival between tamoxifen and no treatment. Survival in untreated patients with cyclin D1 high tumours was slightly better than for patients with cyclin D1 low/moderate tumours. However, there was a clearly increased risk of death in the cyclin D1 high group compared to an age-matched control population. Our results suggest that cyclin D1 overexpression predicts for tamoxifen treatment resistance in breast cancer, which is line with recent experimental data using breast cancer cell lines and overexpression systems.

Renal function is often estimated using one of several glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equations. However, there is no consensus which estimating equation performs best in patients with advanced renal failure. We compared the performance of five different estimated GFR (eGFR) equations [Cockcroft-Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Mayo Clinic and Lund-Malmö] with measured GFR (plasma iohexol clearance) in 2098 referred CKD patients with mGFR 65 years of age and for those with diabetic nephropathy. In patients with advanced renal failure, the GFR-estimating equations show reasonably good performance on the population level. On the individual patient level, they are inaccurate, especially in elderly patients and those with diabetic nephropathy

The majority of all breast cancers are hormone responsive, traditionally defined by the expression of oestrogen receptor (ER) alpha and/or progesterone receptors. In contrast to ERalpha, the clinical significance of the relatively recently identified ERbeta is still unclear. This study aimed to define the relationship between ERbeta and clinicopathological parameters in a mixed cohort of breast cancer and, furthermore, to investigate the impact of ERbeta expression on disease outcome.The immunohistochemical expression of ERalpha and ERbeta was analysed in tissue microarrays containing a total number of 512 tumours with all incident breast cancers diagnosed at the Malmö University Hospital between 1988 and 1992.78% of the tumours were ERalpha positive and 50% were ERbeta positive. ERbeta correlated positively with ERalpha (p = 0.001). In contrast to ERalpha, ERbeta was not associated with any important clinicopathological variables. Furthermore, no overall prognostic significance could be demonstrated for ERbeta. In the ERalpha-positive subgroup, however, a low expression of ERbeta correlated with a decreased disease-free survival in patients receiving endocrine treatment (p = 0.003).Although interrelated, ERalpha and ERbeta seem to be differentially associated to clinicopathological parameters, and this would support the fact that they might have different functions in vivo. Furthermore, ERbeta might be a predictive marker of response to endocrine therapy, although this needs to be confirmed in additional studies, preferably randomised trials.

Cyclins D1 and A2 are cell cycle regulators that also have the ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER) and consequently interfere with antiestrogen treatment in breast cancer. Experimental data support this concept, but the clinical relevance needs to be further established. In this study, we evaluated cyclin D1 and A2 protein expression by immunohistochemistry and cyclin D1 gene (CCND1) amplification by fluorescence in situ hybridization in 500 primary breast cancers arranged in tissue microarrays. Patients had been randomized to 2 years of adjuvant tamoxifen or no treatment with a median follow-up of 14 years, allowing for subgroup analysis of treatment response defined by cyclin status. We found that both cyclin D1 and A2 protein overexpression was associated with an impaired tamoxifen response, although not significant in multivariate interaction analyses, whereas tamoxifen-treated patients with CCND1-amplified tumors had a substantially increased risk for disease recurrence after tamoxifen treatment in univariate analyses [relative risk (RR), 2.22; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.94-5.26; P = 0.06] in contrast to nonamplified tumors (RR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.23-0.65; P < 0.0001). Consequently, a highly significant interaction between tamoxifen treatment and CCND1 amplification could be shown regarding both recurrence-free survival (RR, 6.38; 95% CI, 2.29-17.78; P < 0.001) and overall survival (RR, 5.34; 95% CI, 1.84-15.51; P = 0.002), suggesting an agonistic effect of tamoxifen in ER-positive tumors. In node-positive patients, the disparate outcome according to gene amplification status was even more accentuated. In summary, our data implicate that despite a significant correlation to cyclin D1 protein expression, amplification status of the CCND1 gene seems a strong independent predictor of tamoxifen response, and possibly agonism, in premenopausal breast cancer.