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Abstract Background Circulating total insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) is an established risk factor for prostate cancer. However, only a small proportion of circulating IGF-I is free or readily dissociable from IGF-binding proteins (its bioavailable form), and few studies have investigated the association of circulating free IGF-I with prostate cancer risk. Methods We analyzed data from 767 prostate cancer cases and 767 matched controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, with an average of 14-years (interquartile range = 2.9) follow-up. Matching variables were study center, length of follow-up, age, and time of day and fasting duration at blood collection. Circulating free IGF-I concentration was measured in serum samples collected at recruitment visit (mean age 55 years old; standard deviation = 7.1) using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Conditional logistic regressions were performed to examine the associations of free IGF-I with risk of prostate cancer overall and subdivided by time to diagnosis (≤ 14 and > 14 years), and tumor characteristics. Results Circulating free IGF-I concentrations (in fourths and as a continuous variable) were not associated with prostate cancer risk overall (odds ratio [OR] = 1.00 per 0.1 nmol/L increment, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.02) or by time to diagnosis, or with prostate cancer subtypes, including tumor stage and histological grade. Conclusions Estimated circulating free IGF-I was not associated with prostate cancer risk. Further research may consider other assay methods that estimate bioavailable IGF-I to provide more insight into the well-substantiated association between circulating total IGF-I and subsequent prostate cancer risk.

Summary: Background: Inflammation and immune dysregulation are hypothesized contributors to endometrial carcinogenesis; however, the precise underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Methods: We measured pre-diagnostically 152 plasma protein biomarkers in 624 endometrial cancer case-control pairs nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression, accounting for confounding and multiple comparisons. Proteins considered as associated with endometrial cancer risk were further tested in a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using summary data from the UK Biobank (n = 52,363) and the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (12,270 cases and 46,126 controls). Findings: In the EPIC nested case-control study, IL-6 [OR per NPX (doubling of concentration) = 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.57)], HGF [1.48 (1.06–2.07)], PIK3AP1 [1.22 (1.00–1.50)] and CLEC4G [1.52 (1.00–2.32)] were positively associated; HSD11B1 [0.67 (0.49–0.91)], SCF [0.68 (0.49–0.94)], and CCL25 [0.80 (0.65–0.99)] were inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk; all estimates had multiple comparisons adjusted P-value > 0.05. In complementary MR analysis, IL-6 [OR per inverse-rank normalized NPX = 1.19 (95% CI 1.04–1.36)] and HSD11B1 [0.91 (0.84–0.99)] were associated with endometrial cancer risk. Interpretation: Altered IL-6 signalling and reduced glucocorticoid activity via HSD11B1 might play important roles in endometrial carcinogenesis. Funding: Funding for IIG_FULL_2021_008 was obtained from Wereld Kanker Onderzoek Fonds (WKOF), as part of the World Cancer Research Fund International grant programme; Funding for INCA_15849 was obtained from Institut National du Cancer (INCa).

Summary: Background: Altered lipid metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development. However, the role of specific lipid metabolites in colorectal cancer development is uncertain. Methods: In a case–control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined associations between pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of 97 lipid metabolites (acylcarnitines, glycerophospholipids and sphingolipids) and colorectal cancer risk. Circulating lipids were measured using targeted mass spectrometry in 1591 incident colorectal cancer cases (55% women) and 1591 matched controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between concentrations of individual lipid metabolites and metabolite patterns with colorectal cancer risk. Findings: Of the 97 assayed lipids, 24 were inversely associated (nominally p

Abstract Introduction Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is the outer membrane component of Gram-negative bacteria. LPS-binding protein (LBP) is an acute-phase reactant that mediates immune responses triggered by LPS and has been used as a blood marker for LPS. LBP has recently been indicated to be associated with Parkinson’s disease (PD) in small-scale retrospective case–control studies. We aimed to investigate the association between LBP blood levels with PD risk in a nested case–control study within a large European prospective cohort. Methods A total of 352 incident PD cases (55% males) were identified and one control per case was selected, matched by age at recruitment, sex and study center. LBP levels in plasma collected at recruitment, which was on average 7.8 years before diagnosis of the cases, were analyzed by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated for one unit increase of the natural log of LBP levels and PD incidence by conditional logistic regression. Results Plasma LBP levels were higher in prospective PD cases compared to controls (median (interquartile range) 26.9 (18.1–41.0) vs. 24.7 (16.6–38.4) µg/ml). The OR for PD incidence per one unit increase of log LBP was elevated (1.46, 95% CI 0.98–2.19). This association was more pronounced among women (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.40–5.13) and overweight/obese subjects (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.09–2.18). Conclusion The findings suggest that higher plasma LBP levels may be associated with an increased risk of PD and may thus pinpoint to a potential role of endotoxemia in the pathogenesis of PD, particularly in women and overweight/obese individuals.

Abstract Background Associations of body shape with breast cancer risk, independent of body size, are unclear because waist and hip circumferences are correlated strongly positively with body mass index (BMI). Methods We evaluated body shape with the allometric “a body shape index” (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which compare waist and hip circumferences, correspondingly, among individuals with the same weight and height. We examined associations of ABSI, HI, and BMI (per one standard deviation increment) with breast cancer overall, and according to menopausal status at baseline, age at diagnosis, and oestrogen and progesterone receptor status (ER+/-PR+/-) in multivariable Cox proportional hazards models using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Results During a mean follow-up of 14.0 years, 9011 incident breast cancers were diagnosed among 218,276 women. Although there was little evidence for association of ABSI with breast cancer overall (hazard ratio HR = 0.984; 95% confidence interval: 0.961–1.007), we found borderline inverse associations for post-menopausal women (HR = 0.971; 0.942-1.000; n = 5268 cases) and breast cancers diagnosed at age ≥ 55 years (HR = 0.976; 0.951–1.002; n = 7043) and clear inverse associations for ER + PR- subtypes (HR = 0.894; 0.822–0.971; n = 726) and ER-PR- subtypes (HR = 0.906; 0.835–0.983 n = 759). There were no material associations with HI. BMI was associated strongly positively with breast cancer overall (HR = 1.074; 1.049–1.098), for post-menopausal women (HR = 1.117; 1.085–1.150), for cancers diagnosed at age ≥ 55 years (HR = 1.104; 1.076–1.132), and for ER + PR + subtypes (HR = 1.122; 1.080–1.165; n = 3101), but not for PR- subtypes. Conclusions In the EPIC cohort, abdominal obesity evaluated with ABSI was not associated with breast cancer risk overall but was associated inversely with the risk of post-menopausal PR- breast cancer. Our findings require validation in other cohorts and with a larger number of PR- breast cancer cases.

Abstract Background The Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower risk of breast cancer (BC) but evidence from prospective studies on the role of Mediterranean diet on BC survival remains sparse and conflicting. We aimed to investigate whether adherence to Mediterranean diet prior to diagnosis is associated with overall and BC-specific mortality. Methods A total of 13,270 incident breast cancer cases were identified from an initial sample of 318,686 women in 9 countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was estimated through the adapted relative Mediterranean diet (arMED), a 16-point score that includes 8 key components of the Mediterranean diet and excludes alcohol. The degree of adherence to arMED was classified as low (score 0–5), medium (score 6–8), and high (score 9–16). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between the arMED score and overall mortality, and Fine-Gray competing risks models were applied for BC-specific mortality. Results After a mean follow-up of 8.6 years from diagnosis, 2340 women died, including 1475 from breast cancer. Among all BC survivors, low compared to medium adherence to arMED score was associated with a 13% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.13, 95%CI 1.01–1.26). High compared to medium adherence to arMED showed a non-statistically significant association (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.84–1.05). With no statistically significant departures from linearity, on a continuous scale, a 3-unit increase in the arMED score was associated with an 8% reduced risk of overall mortality (HR3-unit 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87–0.97). This result sustained when restricted to postmenopausal women and was stronger among metastatic BC cases (HR3-unit 0.81, 95% CI: 0.72–0.91). Conclusions Consuming a Mediterranean diet before BC diagnosis may improve long-term prognosis, particularly after menopause and in cases of metastatic breast cancer. Well-designed dietary interventions are needed to confirm these findings and define specific dietary recommendations.

Abstract Background The association between protein intake and prostate cancer risk remains unclear. Aims To prospectively investigate the associations of dietary intakes of total protein, protein from different dietary sources, and amino acids with prostate cancer risk and mortality. Methods In 131,425 men from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, protein and amino acid intakes were estimated using validated dietary questionnaires. Multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results During a mean follow‐up of 14.2 years, 6939 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 914 died of the disease. Dairy protein was positively associated with overall prostate cancer risk in the three highest fifths compared to the lowest (HRQ3=1.14 (95% CI 1.05–1.23); HRQ4=1.09 (1.01–1.18); HRQ5=1.10 (1.02–1.19)); similar results were observed for yogurt protein (HRQ3=1.14 (1.05–1.24); HRQ4=1.09 (1.01–1.18); HRQ5=1.12 (1.04–1.21)). For egg protein intake and prostate cancer mortality, no association was observed by fifths, but there was suggestive evidence of a positive association in the analysis per standard deviation increment. There was no strong evidence of associations with different tumour subtypes. Discussion Considering the weak associations and many tests, the results must be interpreted with caution. Conclusion This study does not provide strong evidence for an association of intakes of total protein, protein from different dietary sources or amino acids with prostate cancer risk or mortality. However, our results may suggest some weak positive associations, which need to be confirmed in large‐scale, pooled analyses of prospective data.

Abstract Background The role of elevated pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations on mortality in individuals with colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. Methods We investigated the association between pre-diagnostic high-sensitivity CRP concentrations and CRP genetic variation associated with circulating CRP and CRC-specific and all-cause mortality based on data from 1,235 individuals with CRC within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Results During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 455 CRC-specific deaths were recorded, out of 590 deaths from all causes. Pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific (hazard ratio, HR highest versus lowest quintile 0.92, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66, 1.28) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68, 1.21). Genetic predisposition to higher CRP (weighted score based on alleles of four CRP SNPs associated with higher circulating CRP) was not significantly associated with CRC-specific mortality (HR per CRP-score unit 0.95, 95% CI 0.86, 1.05) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90, 1.07). Among four investigated CRP genetic variants, only SNP rs1205 was significantly associated with CRC-specific (comparing the CT and CC genotypes with TT genotype, HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35, 0.83 and HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38, 0.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40, 0.85 and 0.64, 95% CI 0.44, 0.92, respectively). Conclusions The results of this prospective cohort study do not support a role of pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations on mortality in individuals with CRC. The observed associations with rs1205 deserve further scientific attention.

Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes have been studied as negative prognostic factors in cancer survival, but possible dependencies in the mechanisms underlying these associations remain largely unexplored. We analysed these associations in colorectal and breast cancer patients. Methods Based on repeated BMI assessments of cancer-free participants from four European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study, individual BMI-trajectories reflecting predicted mean BMI between ages 20 to 50 years were estimated using a growth curve model. Participants with incident colorectal or breast cancer after the age of 50 years were included in the survival analysis to study the prognostic effect of mean BMI and cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) prior to cancer. CMD were defined as one or more chronic conditions among stroke, myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of mean BMI and CMD were derived using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression for mean BMI and CMD separately and both exposures combined, in subgroups of localised and advanced disease. Results In the total cohort of 159,045 participants, there were 1,045 and 1,620 eligible patients of colorectal and breast cancer. In colorectal cancer patients, a higher BMI (by 1 kg/m2) was associated with a 6% increase in risk of death (95% CI of HR: 1.02–1.10). The HR for CMD was 1.25 (95% CI: 0.97–1.61). The associations for both exposures were stronger in patients with localised colorectal cancer. In breast cancer patients, a higher BMI was associated with a 4% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.00–1.08). CMDs were associated with a 46% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.01–2.09). The estimates and CIs for BMI remained similar after adjustment for CMD and vice versa. Conclusions Our results suggest that cumulative exposure to higher BMI during early to mid-adulthood was associated with poorer survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer, independent of CMD prior to cancer diagnosis. The association between a CMD diagnosis prior to cancer and survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer was independent of BMI.

Abstract Background Inflammation has been hypothesized to play a role in the development and progression of breast cancer and might differently impact breast cancer risk among pre and postmenopausal women. We performed a nested case-control study to examine whether pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of adiponectin, leptin, c-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ and 6 interleukins were associated with breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status. Methods Pre-diagnostic levels of inflammatory biomarkers were measured in plasma from 1558 case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer at blood collection, per one standard deviation increase in biomarker concentration. Results Cases were diagnosed at a mean age of 61.4 years on average 8.6 years after blood collection. No statistically significant association was observed between inflammatory markers and breast cancer risk overall. In premenopausal women, borderline significant inverse associations were observed for leptin, leptin-to-adiponectin ratio and CRP [OR= 0.89 (0.77–1.03), OR= 0.88 (0.76–1.01) and OR= 0.87 (0.75–1.01), respectively] while positive associations were observed among postmenopausal women [OR= 1.16 (1.05–1.29), OR= 1.11 (1.01–1.23), OR= 1.10 (0.99–1.22), respectively]. Adjustment for BMI strengthened the estimates in premenopausal women [leptin: OR = 0.83 (0.68–1.00), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 0.80 (0.66–0.97), CRP: OR = 0.85 (0.72–1.00)] but attenuated the estimates in postmenopausal women [leptin: OR = 1.09 (0.96–1.24), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 1.02 (0.89–1.16), CRP: OR = 1.04 (0.92–1.16)]. Conclusions Associations between CRP, leptin and leptin-to-adiponectin ratio with breast cancer risk may represent the dual effect of obesity by menopausal status although this deserves further investigation.

Abstract Background Metabolomics is a promising molecular tool for identifying novel etiological pathways leading to cancer. In an earlier prospective study among pre- and postmenopausal women not using exogenous hormones, we observed a higher risk of breast cancer associated with higher blood concentrations of one metabolite (acetylcarnitine) and a lower risk associated with higher blood concentrations of seven others (arginine, asparagine, phosphatidylcholines (PCs) aa C36:3, ae C34:2, ae C36:2, ae C36:3, and ae C38:2). Methods To identify determinants of these breast cancer-related metabolites, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis to identify their lifestyle and anthropometric correlates in 2358 women, who were previously included as controls in case-control studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort and not using exogenous hormones at blood collection. Associations of each metabolite concentration with 42 variables were assessed using linear regression models in a discovery set of 1572 participants. Significant associations were evaluated in a validation set (n = 786). Results For the metabolites previously associated with a lower risk of breast cancer, concentrations of PCs ae C34:2, C36:2, C36:3, and C38:2 were negatively associated with adiposity and positively associated with total and saturated fat intakes. PC ae C36:2 was also negatively associated with alcohol consumption and positively associated with two scores reflecting adherence to a healthy lifestyle. Asparagine concentration was negatively associated with adiposity. Arginine and PC aa C36:3 concentrations were not associated to any of the factors examined. For the metabolite previously associated with a higher risk of breast cancer, acetylcarnitine, a positive association with age was observed. Conclusions These associations may indicate possible mechanisms underlying associations between lifestyle and anthropometric factors, and risk of breast cancer. Further research is needed to identify potential non-lifestyle correlates of the metabolites investigated.

Abstract Background Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. Methods The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992–2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. Results The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell’s C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264–0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084–0.575)). Conclusions LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.

Abstract Background Although lifestyle factors have been studied in relation to individual non-communicable diseases (NCDs), their association with development of a subsequent NCD, defined as multimorbidity, has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between five lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 291,778 participants (64% women) from seven European countries, mostly aged 43 to 58 years and free of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at recruitment, were included. Incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases was defined as developing subsequently two diseases including first cancer at any site, CVD, and T2D in an individual. Multi-state modelling based on Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of developing cancer, CVD, or T2D, and subsequent transitions to multimorbidity, in relation to body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and their combination as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score. Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) were estimated to compute 10-year absolute risks for transitions from healthy to cancer at any site, CVD (both fatal and non-fatal), or T2D, and to subsequent multimorbidity after each of the three NCDs. Results During a median follow-up of 11 years, 1910 men and 1334 women developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. A higher HLI, reflecting healthy lifestyles, was strongly inversely associated with multimorbidity, with hazard ratios per 3-unit increment of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.81), 0.84 (0.79 to 0.90), and 0.82 (0.77 to 0.88) after cancer, CVD, and T2D, respectively. After T2D, the 10-year absolute risks of multimorbidity were 40% and 25% for men and women, respectively, with unhealthy lifestyle, and 30% and 18% for men and women with healthy lifestyles. Conclusion Pre-diagnostic healthy lifestyle behaviours were strongly inversely associated with the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases, and with the prognosis of these diseases by reducing risk of multimorbidity.

Physical activity has been linked to lower risks of colorectal and breast cancer. Here, the authors present a Mendelian randomisation analysis supporting a potentially causal relationship between higher physical activity levels and lower risks of breast cancer and colorectal cancer.

Abstract Background Even though in situ breast cancer (BCIS) accounts for a large proportion of the breast cancers diagnosed, few studies have investigated potential risk factors for BCIS. Their results suggest that some established risk factors for invasive breast cancer have a similar impact on BCIS risk, but large population-based studies on lifestyle factors and BCIS risk are lacking. Thus, we investigated the association between lifestyle and BCIS risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Methods Lifestyle was operationalized by a score reflecting the adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) cancer prevention recommendations. The recommendations utilized in these analyses were the ones pertinent to healthy body weight, physical activity, consumption of plant-based foods, energy-dense foods, red and processed meat, and sugary drinks and alcohol, as well as the recommendation on breastfeeding. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between lifestyle score and BCIS risk. The results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results After an overall median follow-up time of 14.9 years, 1277 BCIS cases were diagnosed. Greater adherence to the WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations was not associated with BCIS risk (HR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.93–1.03; per one unit of increase; multivariable model). An inverse association between the lifestyle score and BCIS risk was observed in study centers, where participants were recruited mainly via mammographic screening and attended additional screening throughout follow-up (HR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.73–0.99), but not in the remaining ones (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94–1.05). Conclusions While we did not observe an overall association between lifestyle and BCIS risk, our results indicate that lifestyle is associated with BCIS risk among women recruited via screening programs and with regular screening participation. This suggests that a true inverse association between lifestyle habits and BCIS risk in the overall cohort may have been masked by a lack of information on screening attendance. The potential inverse association between lifestyle and BCIS risk in our analyses is consistent with the inverse associations between lifestyle scores and breast cancer risk reported from previous studies.

Abstract Background Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is currently the best available ovarian cancer screening biomarker. However, CA125 has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity in part due to normal variation between individuals. Personal characteristics that influence CA125 could be used to improve its performance as screening biomarker. Methods We developed and validated linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women without ovarian cancer who participated in one of five large population-based studies: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO, n = 26,981), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, n = 861), the Nurses’ Health Studies (NHS/NHSII, n = 81), and the New England Case Control Study (NEC, n = 923). The prediction models were developed using stepwise regression in PLCO and validated in EPIC, NHS/NHSII and NEC. Result The linear CA125 prediction model, which included age, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and duration, parity, hysterectomy, age at menopause, and duration of hormone therapy (HT), explained 5% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between measured and predicted CA125 was comparable in PLCO testing dataset (r = 0.18) and external validation datasets (r = 0.14). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, race, BMI, smoking status and duration, hysterectomy, time since menopause, and duration of HT with AUC of 0.64 in PLCO and 0.80 in validation dataset. Conclusions The linear prediction model explained a small portion of the total variability of CA125, suggesting the need to identify novel predictors of CA125. The dichotomous prediction model showed moderate discriminatory performance which validated well in independent dataset. Our dichotomous model could be valuable in identifying healthy women who may have elevated CA125 levels, which may contribute to reducing false positive tests using CA125 as screening biomarker.

Resistin is a polypeptide implicated in inflammatory processes, and as such could be linked to colorectal carcinogenesis. In case-control studies, higher resistin levels have been found in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients compared to healthy individuals. However, evidence for the association between pre-diagnostic resistin and CRC risk is scarce. We investigated pre-diagnostic resistin concentrations and CRC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition using a nested case-control study among 1293 incident CRC-diagnosed cases and 1293 incidence density-matched controls. Conditional logistic regression models controlled for matching factors (age, sex, study center, fasting status, and women-related factors in women) and potential confounders (education, dietary and lifestyle factors, body mass index (BMI), BMI-adjusted waist circumference residuals) were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CRC. Higher circulating resistin concentrations were not associated with CRC (RR per doubling resistin, 1.11; 95% CI 0.94–1.30; p = 0.22). There were also no associations with CRC subgroups defined by tumor subsite or sex. However, resistin was marginally associated with a higher CRC risk among participants followed-up maximally two years, but not among those followed-up after more than two years. We observed no substantial correlation between baseline circulating resistin concentrations and adiposity measures (BMI, waist circumference), adipokines (adiponectin, leptin), or metabolic and inflammatory biomarkers (C-reactive protein, C-peptide, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, reactive oxygen metabolites) among controls. In this large-scale prospective cohort, there was little evidence of an association between baseline circulating resistin concentrations and CRC risk in European men and women.

Three metabolite patterns have previously shown prospective inverse associations with the risk of aggressive prostate cancer within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Here, we investigated dietary and lifestyle correlates of these three prostate cancer-related metabolite patterns, which included: 64 phosphatidylcholines and three hydroxysphingomyelins (Pattern 1), acylcarnitines C18:1 and C18:2, glutamate, ornithine, and taurine (Pattern 2), and 8 lysophosphatidylcholines (Pattern 3). In a two-stage cross-sectional discovery (n = 2524) and validation (n = 518) design containing 3042 men free of cancer in EPIC, we estimated the associations of 24 dietary and lifestyle variables with each pattern and the contributing individual metabolites. Associations statistically significant after both correction for multiple testing (False Discovery Rate = 0.05) in the discovery set and at p < 0.05 in the validation set were considered robust. Intakes of alcohol, total fish products, and its subsets total fish and lean fish were positively associated with Pattern 1. Body mass index (BMI) was positively associated with Pattern 2, which appeared to be driven by a strong positive BMI-glutamate association. Finally, both BMI and fatty fish were inversely associated with Pattern 3. In conclusion, these results indicate associations of fish and its subtypes, alcohol, and BMI with metabolite patterns that are inversely associated with risk of aggressive prostate cancer.

Abstract Background Metabolomics is a promising molecular tool to identify novel etiologic pathways leading to cancer. Using a targeted approach, we prospectively investigated the associations between metabolite concentrations in plasma and breast cancer risk. Methods A nested case-control study was established within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort, which included 1624 first primary incident invasive breast cancer cases (with known estrogen and progesterone receptor and HER2 status) and 1624 matched controls. Metabolites (n = 127, acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, hexose, sphingolipids) were measured by mass spectrometry in pre-diagnostic plasma samples and tested for associations with breast cancer incidence using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Results Among women not using hormones at baseline (n = 2248), and after control for multiple tests, concentrations of arginine (odds ratio [OR] per SD = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70–0.90), asparagine (OR = 0.83 (0.74–0.92)), and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) ae C36:3 (OR = 0.83 (0.76–0.90)), aa C36:3 (OR = 0.84 (0.77–0.93)), ae C34:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78–0.94)), ae C36:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78–0.88)), and ae C38:2 (OR = 0.84 (0.76–0.93)) were inversely associated with breast cancer risk, while the acylcarnitine C2 (OR = 1.23 (1.11–1.35)) was positively associated with disease risk. In the overall population, C2 (OR = 1.15 (1.06–1.24)) and PC ae C36:3 (OR = 0.88 (0.82–0.95)) were associated with risk of breast cancer, and these relationships did not differ by breast cancer subtype, age at diagnosis, fasting status, menopausal status, or adiposity. Conclusions These findings point to potentially novel pathways and biomarkers of breast cancer development. Results warrant replication in other epidemiological studies.

Abstract Background Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction. Methods We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women’s Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention. Results Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10− 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10− 6 for ModelGail. Conclusions Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention.

Abstract Background Childhood obesity continues to be a significant public health issue worldwide. Recent national studies in Spain show a stable picture. However, prevalence and trends differ by socio-economic status, age, and region. We present the trend in childhood excess weight prevalence, aged 8–15 years, in Andalusia from 2011-2012 to 2015–2016 by socio-economic status. Methods Using the cross-sectional Andalusian Health Surveys, objective anthropometric measures were taken for a representative sample of 8–15 year olds in Andalusia in 2011–2012 and 2015–2016. Prevalence and changes in prevalence of excess weight (overweight plus obesity) were calculated, using both the WHO and IOTF criteria, overall and for sex, age and three different indicators of SES. Results Overall prevalence of excess weight decreased from 42.0% in 2011–2012 to 35.4% in 2015–2016. Overweight decreased from 28.2 to 24.2% and obesity from 13.8 to 11.2%. In 2011–2012 the prevalence of excess weight in boys was 46.0%and 37.9% in girls; in 2015–2016 the difference became significant with 41% of boys with excess weight compared with 30% in girls. Conclusions Childhood excess weight prevalence in Andalusia has decreased slightly between 2011-2012 and 2015–2016. Notably, a decrease in obesity prevalence in girls aged 8–15 years was recorded. In 2011–2012 a social gradient for excess weight prevalence across three SES indicators was observed: in 2015–2016 this gradient disappeared. Nonetheless, prevalence remains too high.

Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) may promote oxidative stress and inflammation and have been linked to multiple chronic diseases, including cancer. However, the association of AGEs with mortality after colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis has not been previously investigated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for associations between dietary intake of AGEs with CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 5801 participant cases diagnosed with CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study between 1993 and 2013. Dietary intakes of AGEs were estimated using country-specific dietary questionnaires, linked to an AGE database, that accounted for food preparation and processing. During a median of 58 months of follow-up, 2421 cases died (1841 from CRC). Individually or combined, dietary intakes of AGEs were not associated with all-cause and CRC-specific mortality among cases. However, there was a suggestion for a positive association between AGEs and all-cause or CRC-specific mortality among CRC cases without type II diabetes (all-cause, Pinteraction = 0.05) and CRC cases with the longest follow-up between recruitment and cancer diagnosis (CRC-specific, Pinteraction = 0.003; all-cause, Pinteraction = 0.01). Our study suggests that pre-diagnostic dietary intakes of AGEs were not associated with CRC-specific or all-cause mortality among CRC patients. Further investigations using biomarkers of AGEs and stratifying by sex, diabetes status, and timing of exposure to AGEs are warranted.

Dietary advanced glycation end-products (dAGEs) have been hypothesized to be associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) by promoting inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, and oxidative stress in the colonic epithelium. However, evidence from prospective cohort studies is scarce and inconclusive. We evaluated CRC risk associated with the intake of dAGEs in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Dietary intakes of three major dAGEs: Nε-carboxy-methyllysine (CML), Nε-carboxyethyllysine (CEL), and Nδ-(5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl)-ornithine (MG-H1) were estimated in 450,111 participants (median follow-up = 13 years, with 6162 CRC cases) by matching to a detailed published European food composition database. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of dAGEs with CRC were computed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. Inverse CRC risk associations were observed for CML (HR comparing extreme quintiles: HRQ5vs.Q1 = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.85–1.00) and MG-H1 (HRQ5vs.Q1 = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.85–1.00), but not for CEL (HRQ5vs.Q1 = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.89–1.05). The associations did not differ by sex or anatomical location of the tumor. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, our findings suggest an inverse association between dAGEs and CRC risk. More research is required to verify these findings and better differentiate the role of dAGEs from that of endogenously produced AGEs and their precursor compounds in CRC development.

Despite some epidemiological evidence on the protective effects of polyphenol intake on epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk from case-control studies, the evidence is scarce from prospective studies and non-existent for several polyphenol classes. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the associations between the intake of total, classes and subclasses of polyphenols and EOC risk in a large prospective study. The study was conducted in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, which included 309,129 adult women recruited mostly from the general population. Polyphenol intake was assessed through validated country-specific dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 1469 first incident EOC cases (including 806 serous, 129 endometrioid, 102 mucinous, and 67 clear cell tumours) were identified. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, the hazard ratio in the highest quartile of total polyphenol intake compared with the lowest quartile (HRQ4vsQ1) was 1.14 (95% CI 0.94–1.39; p-trend = 0.11). Similarly, the intake of most classes and subclasses of polyphenols were not related to either overall EOC risk or any EOC subtype. A borderline statistically significant positive association was observed between phenolic acid intake (HRQ4vsQ1 = 1.20, 95% CI 1.01–1.43; p-trend = 0.02) and EOC risk, especially for the serous subtype and in women with obesity, although these associations did not exceed the Bonferroni correction threshold. The current results do not support any association between polyphenol intake and EOC in our large European prospective study. Results regarding phenolic acid intake need further investigation

(1) Background: Methyl-group donors (MGDs), including folate, choline, betaine, and methionine, may influence breast cancer (BC) risk through their role in one-carbon metabolism; (2) Methods: We studied the relationship between dietary intakes of MGDs and BC risk, adopting data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort; (3) Results: 318,686 pre- and postmenopausal women were followed between enrolment in 1992–2000 and December 2013–December 2015. Dietary MGD intakes were estimated at baseline through food-frequency questionnaires. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to quantify the association between dietary intake of MGDs, measured both as a calculated score based on their sum and individually, and BC risk. Subgroup analyses were performed by hormone receptor status, menopausal status, and level of alcohol intake. During a mean follow-up time of 14.1 years, 13,320 women with malignant BC were identified. No associations were found between dietary intakes of the MGD score or individual MGDs and BC risk. However, a potential U-shaped relationship was observed between dietary folate intake and overall BC risk, suggesting an inverse association for intakes up to 350 µg/day compared to a reference intake of 205 µg/day. No statistically significant differences in the associations were observed by hormone receptor status, menopausal status, or level of alcohol intake; (4) Conclusions: There was no strong evidence for an association between MGDs involved in one-carbon metabolism and BC risk. However, a potential U-shaped trend was suggested for dietary folate intake and BC risk. Further research is needed to clarify this association.

Abstract Background Healthy lifestyles are inversely associated with the risk of noncommunicable diseases, which are leading causes of death. However, few studies have used longitudinal data to assess the impact of changing lifestyle behaviours on all-cause and cancer mortality. Methods Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, lifestyle profiles of 308,497 cancer-free adults (71% female) aged 35–70 years at recruitment across nine countries were assessed with baseline and follow-up questionnaires administered on average of 7 years apart. A healthy lifestyle index (HLI), assessed at two time points, combined information on smoking status, alcohol intake, body mass index, and physical activity, and ranged from 0 to 16 units. A change score was calculated as the difference between HLI at baseline and follow-up. Associations between HLI change and all-cause and cancer mortality were modelled with Cox regression, and the impact of changing HLI on accelerating mortality rate was estimated by rate advancement periods (RAP, in years). Results After the follow-up questionnaire, participants were followed for an average of 9.9 years, with 21,696 deaths (8407 cancer deaths) documented. Compared to participants whose HLIs remained stable (within one unit), improving HLI by more than one unit was inversely associated with all-cause and cancer mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81, 0.88; and HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.92; respectively), while worsening HLI by more than one unit was associated with an increase in mortality (all-cause mortality HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.33; cancer mortality HR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.29). Participants who worsened HLI by more than one advanced their risk of death by 1.62 (1.44, 1.96) years, while participants who improved HLI by the same amount delayed their risk of death by 1.19 (0.65, 2.32) years, compared to those with stable HLI. Conclusions Making healthier lifestyle changes during adulthood was inversely associated with all-cause and cancer mortality and delayed risk of death. Conversely, making unhealthier lifestyle changes was positively associated with mortality and an accelerated risk of death.