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The COVID-19 pandemic presents challenges to psychological wellbeing, but how can we predict when people suffer or cope during sustained stress? Here, we test the prediction that specific types of momentary emotional experiences are differently linked to psychological wellbeing during the pandemic. Study 1 used survey data collected from 24,221 participants in 51 countries during the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that, across countries, wellbeing is linked to individuals’ recent emotional experiences, including calm, hope, anxiety, loneliness, and sadness. Consistent results are found in two age, sex, and ethnicity-representative samples in the United Kingdom (N = 971) and the United States (N=961) with pre-registered analyses (Study 2). A prospective 30-day daily diary study conducted in the United Kingdom (N = 110) confirms the key role of these five emotions, and demonstrates that emotional experiences precede changes in wellbeing (Study 3). Our findings highlight differential relationships between specific types of momentary emotional experiences and wellbeing, and point to the cultivation of calm and hope as candidate routes for wellbeing interventions during periods of sustained stress.

Around the globe, people are living under the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic, and many are experiencing curtailed opportunities for sustainable livelihoods and real-world social interactions. These conditions present a significant challenge to wellbeing1,2 and it is therefore essential to examine the factors associated with psychological wellbeing during this pandemic and other collective crises3. Here, we used survey data collected from 26,684 participants in 51 countries from 17 April to 15 May 2020 to examine the individual and societal factors that predict the degree of individuals’ suffering or thriving during the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that wellbeing is linked to an individual’s recent experiences of specific momentary positive and negative emotions, including calm, loneliness, love, and determination, as well as socioeconomic status. Around the world, calm, connection, and control were found to be central to wellbeing during the COVID-19 outbreak. The results are consistent with findings from two representative samples using pre-registered analyses, and a prospective 30-day daily diary study. Our findings highlight differential relationships between socio-affective processes and wellbeing during collective crises, and point to the importance of momentary experiences of calm, love and determination, particularly for those in less privileged positions in society. Funding Statement: This research was supported by ERC Starting grant 714977 awarded to D.A.S. Declaration of Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: The study received approval from the University of Amsterdam Department of Psychology Ethics Committee and all participants provided digital informed consent.