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The ice sheets of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) are vulnerable to the marine ice sheet instability (MISI), which could cause irreversible collapse and raise sea levels by over a meter. The uncertain timing and scale of this collapse depend on the complex interaction between ice, ocean, and bedrock dynamics. The mantle beneath the ASE is likely less viscous (∼1018 Pa s) than the Earth's average mantle (∼1021 Pa s). Here we show that an effective equilibrium between Pine Island Glacier's retreat and the response of a weak viscoelastic mantle can reduce ice mass lost by almost 30% over 150 years. Other components of solid Earth response—purely elastic deformations and geoid perturbations—provide less stability than the viscoelastic response alone. Uncertainties in mantle rheology, topography, and basal melt affect how much stability we expect, if any. Our study indicates the importance of considering viscoelastic uplift during the rapid retreat associated with MISI.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet holds a vital role in Earth's climate system and its changes have global implications for the climate, sea level, coastal ecosystems and population. Under the ongoing anthropogenic warming, the ice sheet's future, however, is obscured by a number of processes with poorly-constrained key parameters in numerical models, and climate feedbacks that are not fully understood. Here, a set of selected physical processes and feedbacks governing future changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet are discussed, including processes critical for the stability of ice shelves and the marine-based portions of the ice sheet, processes regulating the warming rates of air and ocean in the southern polar region, and ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with the freshwater flux from Antarctica. The degree of uncertainty in projected changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be reduced by refinement of the numerical schemes for these processes in fully-coupled ice sheet-climate models, helping reveal a clearer picture of future Antarctica and its role in the fast-changing global environment.

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) lies on a solid Earth that displays large spatial variations in rheological properties, with a thin lithosphere and low‐viscosity upper mantle (weak Earth structure) beneath West Antarctica and an opposing structure beneath East Antarctica. This contrast is known to have a significant impact on the ice‐sheet grounding‐line stability. Here, we embed within an ice‐sheet model a modified glacial‐isostatic Elastic Lithosphere‐Relaxing Asthenosphere model that considers a dual pattern for the Earth structure beneath West and East Antarctica supplemented with an approximation of gravitationally consistent geoid changes, allowing to approximate near‐field relative sea‐level changes. We show that this elementary GIA model captures the essence of global Self‐Gravitating Viscoelastic solid‐Earth Models (SGVEMs) and compares well with both SGVEM outputs and geodetic observations, allowing to capture the essential features and processes influencing Antarctic grounding‐line stability in a computationally efficient way. In this framework, we perform a probabilistic assessment of the impact of uncertainties in solid‐Earth rheological properties on the response of the AIS to future warming. Results show that on multicentennial‐to‐millennial timescales, spatial variability in solid‐Earth deformation plays a significant role in promoting the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). However, WAIS collapse cannot be prevented under high‐emissions climate scenarios. On longer timescales and for unmitigated climate scenarios, continent‐wide mass loss projections may be underestimated because spatially uniform Earth models, as typically considered in numerical ice sheet models, will overestimate the stabilizing effect of GIA across East Antarctica, which is characterized by thick lithosphere and high upper‐mantle viscosity. Plain Language Summary: When an ice sheet loses mass, the pressure it exerts on the underlying solid Earth decreases and the Earth surface rebounds. This process, called glacial isostatic adjustment, is important to consider in ice sheet models because it can stabilize an ice sheet undergoing unstable retreat. Most models consider that the solid Earth response to ice mass changes is uniform. However, because of the weak mantle observed beneath West Antarctica, the isostatic rebound in this region is much faster than previously thought. Oppositely, a slow Earth response is observed in East Antarctica, characterized by a more rigid mantle. In this study, we consider this contrast in the isostatic response of the Antarctic solid Earth and show that it plays a crucial role on the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet. More specifically, we find that the rapid Earth response in West Antarctica significantly stabilizes the ice sheet on multicentennial‐to‐millennial timescales, even though a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet cannot be avoided under high‐emissions climate scenarios. We also find that the slow Earth response in East Antarctica has an influence on long timescales, potentially leading to an underestimation of future mass loss in the East Antarctic ice sheet. Key Points: We developed an elementary glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model featuring a spatially varying Elastic Lithosphere‐Relaxing Asthenosphere model and an approximation to geoid changesOn multicentennial‐to‐millennial timescales, GIA feedbacks significantly promote the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheetOn millennial timescales, considering a uniform Antarctic Earth structure may overestimate the stabilizing role of GIA feedbacks in the East Antarctic ice sheet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the influence of different deglacial histories of the North American ice saddle, which connected the Cordilleran ice sheet and western Laurentide ice sheet, on the stability of the fast‐flowing Amundsen Gulf Ice Stream, located in the northwestern Laurentide ice sheet. We use a simplified marine‐terminating ice stream model to simulate grounding line retreat and compare our predictions to geologic evidence for the rapid collapse of the Amundsen Gulf Ice Stream at 13 ka. We show that observations of ice stream retreat can be used to distinguish between past ice unloading histories, and that the rapid retreat of the Amundsen Gulf Ice Stream near 13 ka is most dynamically consistent with substantial deglaciation of the North American ice saddle from 13 to 11.5 ka, during the Younger Dryas cooling episode. These results suggest that short‐lived changes in ice stream behavior may be used to reveal larger‐scale and longer‐duration ice sheet dynamics. Key Points: Ice streams are sensitive to history of deglaciationWe use ice stream collapse to differentiate between proposed deglacial ice histories [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics related to global climate change is of scientific and societal interest as the future behaviour of the ice sheet under the currently changing climate is unknown. We present beryllium‐10 (10Be) analysis of a high‐resolution marine sediment core from the Adélie Basin near the eastern Wilkes Land margin, which is susceptible to marine ice sheet instability due to the low‐lying nature and down‐sloping trough of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Combined with a newly constructed age model using compound specific radiocarbon dates, the data reveal three events associated with high meteoric 10Be at ca. ~10 ka, ca. ~6.5 ka and from ca. ~4 ka. We interpret these high meteoric 10Be events to be derived from the deposition of 10Be released from the ice sheet during meltwater discharge. In particular, the shift to higher meteoric 10Be concentration at~4 ka may correspond to changes in climate patterns at this time. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate‐driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface‐melt‐driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding‐line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high‐resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full‐continent simulations have typically been limited to low‐resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present‐day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ∼1‐km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine‐grounded portions of the WAIS. Vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses. Plain Language Summary: The biggest uncertainty in near‐future sea level rise (SLR) comes from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Antarctic ice flows in relatively fast‐moving ice streams. At the ocean, ice flows into enormous floating ice shelves that push back on their feeder ice streams, buttressing them and slowing their flow. Melting and loss of ice shelves due to climate changes can result in faster‐flowing, thinning, and retreating ice leading to accelerated rates of global SLR. To learn where Antarctica is vulnerable to ice shelf loss, we divided it into 14 sectors, applied extreme melting to each sector's floating ice shelves in turn, then ran our ice flow model 1,000 years into the future for each case. We found three levels of vulnerability. The greatest vulnerability came from attacking any of the three ice shelves connected to West Antarctica, where much of the ice sits on bedrock lying below sea level. Those dramatic responses contributed around 2 m of SLR. The second level came from four other sectors, each with a contribution between 0.5 and 1 m. The remaining sectors produced little to no contribution. We examined combinations of sectors, determining that sectors behave independently of each other for at least a century. Key Points: Sustained ice‐shelf loss in any of the Amundsen Sea, Ronne, or Ross sectors can lead to wholesale West Antarctic ungrounding and collapseEven with extreme forcing, loss is relatively modest for the initial century, increasing markedly after in West Antarctic collapse scenariosModeling suggests Antarctic drainage basins can be assumed to be dynamically independent for one to two centuries before they begin to interact [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid change now underway on Thwaites Glacier (TG) raises concern that a threshold for unstoppable grounding line retreat has been or is about to be crossed. We use a high‐resolution ice sheet model to examine the mechanics of TG self‐sustained retreat by nudging the grounding line just past the point of instability. We find that by modifying surface slope in the region of the grounding line, the rate of the forcing dictates the rate of retreat, even after the external forcing is removed. Grounding line retreats that begin faster proceed more rapidly because the shorter time interval for the grounding line to erode into the grounded ice sheet means relatively thicker ice and larger driving stress upstream of the boundary. Retreat is sensitive to short‐duration re‐advances associated with reduced external forcing where the bathymetry allows regrounding, even when an instability is invoked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea levels at the end of this century are projected to be 0.26–0.98 m higher than today. The upper end of this range, and even higher estimates, cannot be ruled out because of major uncertainties in the dynamic response of polar ice sheets to a warming climate. Here, we propose an ecological genetics approach that can provide insight into the past stability and configuration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). We propose independent testing of the hypothesis that a trans-Antarctic seaway occurred at the last interglacial. Examination of the genomic signatures of bottom-dwelling marine species using the latest methods can provide an independent window into the integrity of the WAIS more than 100,000 years ago. Periods of connectivity facilitated by trans-Antarctic seaways could be revealed by dating coalescent events recorded in DNA. These methods allow alternative scenarios to be tested against a fit to genomic data. Ideal candidate taxa for this work would need to possess a circumpolar distribution, a benthic habitat, and some level of genetic structure indicated by phylogeographical investigation. The purpose of this perspective piece is to set out an ecological genetics method to help resolve when the West Antarctic Ice Shelf last collapsed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and outline further scientific objectives for the area now identified as the most likely to undergo near-term significant change: Thwaites Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of evidence point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in response to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of the ice sheet's dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites Glacier grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster flow, and retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier basin would raise global sea level by more than three meters by entraining ice from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur over the next few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur through processes omitted from most ice flow models such as hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, which have been observed in recent rapid ice retreats elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the grounding zone and increased potential for hydrofracture due to enhanced surface melt could initiate a more rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the millennial-scale behaviour of marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is critical to improve predictions of the future contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise. Here high-resolution ice sheet modelling was combined with new terrestrial geological constraints (in situ14C and 10Be analysis) to reconstruct the evolution of two major ice streams entering the Weddell Sea over 20 000 years. The results demonstrate how marked differences in ice flux at the marine margin of the expanded Antarctic ice sheet led to a major reorganization of ice streams in the Weddell Sea during the last deglaciation, resulting in the eastward migration of the Institute Ice Stream, triggering a significant regional change in ice sheet mass balance during the early to mid Holocene. The findings highlight how spatial variability in ice flow can cause marked changes in the pattern, flux and flow direction of ice streams on millennial timescales in this marine ice sheet setting. Given that this sector of the WAIS is assumed to be sensitive to ocean-forced instability and may be influenced by predicted twenty-first century ocean warming, our ability to model and predict abrupt and extensive ice stream diversions is key to a realistic assessment of future ice sheet sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recent satellite observations of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets show accelerated ice flow and associated ice sheet thinning along coastal outlet glaciers in contact with the ocean. Both processes are the result of grounding line retreat due to melting at the grounding line (the grounding line is the contact of the ice sheet with the ocean, where it starts to float and forms an ice shelf or ice tongue). Such rapid ice loss is not yet included in large-scale ice sheet models used for IPCC projections, as most of the complex processes are poorly understood. Here we report on the state-of-the art of grounding line migration in marine ice sheets and address different ways in which grounding line migration can be attributed and represented in ice sheet models. Using one-dimensional ice flow models of the ice sheet/ice shelf system we carried out a number of sensitivity experiments with different spatial resolutions and stress approximations. These are verified with semi-analytical steady state solutions. Results show that, in large-scale finite-difference models, grounding line migration is dependent on the numerical treatment (e.g. staggered/non-staggered grid) and the level of physics involved (e.g. shallow-ice/shallow-shelf approximation). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the conditions under which a marine ice sheet may adopt a steady profile. The ice is treated as a linear viscous fluid caused to flow from a rigid base to and over water, treated as a denser but inviscid fluid. The solutions in the region around the point of flotation, or ‘transition’ zone, are calculated numerically. In-flow and out-flow conditions appropriate to ice sheet and ice shelf flow are applied at the ends of the transition zone and the rigid base is specified; the flow and steady free surfaces are determined as part of the solutions. The basal stress upstream, and the basal deflection downstream, of the flotation point are examined to determine which of these steady solutions satisfy ‘contact’ conditions that would prevent (i) the steady downstream basal deflection contacting the downstream base, and (ii) the upstream ice commencing to float in the event it was melted at the base. In the case that the upstream bed is allowed to slide, we find only one mass flux that satisfies the contact conditions. When no sliding is allowed at the bed, however, we find a range of mass fluxes satisfy the contact conditions. The effect of ‘backpressure’ on the solutions is investigated, and is found to have no affect on the qualitative behaviour of the junctions. To the extent that the numerical, linearly viscous treatment may be applied to the case of ice flowing out over the ocean, we conclude that when sliding is present, Weertman''s ‘instability’ hypothesis holds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]