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Post-Normal Science (PNS) emphasises the need for scientists and policy-makers to iteratively co-analyse and learn together, as part of an extended peer community. However, the roles and implications for scientific experts when interacting with policy-makers are not well understood. Informed by insights from science and technology studies (STS) on modalities of interaction and the multiple potential roles of experts, we reflect on our experiences as scientific experts working on European agricultural policy within the interdisciplinary H2020 MAGIC project. We aimed to analyse and facilitate science-policy dialogue on a variety of European sustainability challenges. Whilst we achieved stimulating interactions on the nexus of issues associated with sustainable agriculture, our experiences did not fully match our deliberative vision. In part this was due to the varied constraints and reactions of policy-makers: many had limited remit for engagement, some expressed scientists should act as ‘fact’ providers in support of current tasks; others contested scientific analyses when these implied policy approaches were insufficient. Our own roles and reactions also varied across the scientific team and over time: from attempting to foster relationships, to emphasising our relevance to their tasks, or making stronger judgements. This dynamic mix was at times personally uncomfortable and challenging. Navigating such processes needs explicit reflection on the potentially plural roles expected of scientific and other experts working on and for sustainability. Meanwhile, the persistent expectations and institutional constraints that underlie and constrain science-policy interactions need more recognition, including by policy institutions themselves.

I argue that the popularity of the circular bioeconomy concept in policy-making is symptomatic of a profound crisis in sustainability science, which is generated by the adoption of an obsolete scientific paradigm, i.e., obsolete ontologies used to describe our interaction with the external world. The result is a systemic lack of quality control on the science–policy interface. The growing awareness of a pending collapse of our life support systems and the rapidly changing world order would require society to rediscuss its identity. However, current mechanisms of control of the quality of the scientific input used for governance do not allow us to do so. The problem is how to detect and change obsolete scientific paradigms referring to sustainability science. I conclude that a swift move to a new scientific paradigm would require a more reflexive science and a more reflexive society.

Forest conversion and conservation in rural settings are linked to both social and biophysical drivers. However, the joint analysis of these drivers presents methodological challenges. To address this problem, we propose a novel methodology to explore the relationship between livelihood heterogeneity and land use change at the community level. It combines the concept of archetype with the accounting scheme of MUlti-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism to define and quantify the characteristics of livelihood typologies in socioeconomic (time use, financial flows) and ecological terms (land use, agricultural inputs, soil degradation). Conservation trade-offs of potential policies are explored through “what if” scenarios assuming changes in off-farm opportunities, population growth, and conservation/farming subsidies. The approach is tested with a case study of the community of San Isidro, in Chiapas, Mexico. We conclude that the concept of livelihood typologies is useful to inform the debate over conservation prospects in rural environments.

MuSIASEM provides a set of new narratives about the economic process that responds to the original challenges of the field of Ecological Economics. These alternative narratives can be used to identify and integrate four aspects of sustainability: (i) feasibility – compatibility with external constraints (processes outside of human control); (ii) viability – compatibility with internal constraints (processes under human control), (iii) desirability – compatibility with the stability of the social bonding (affective interactions in societal practices); (iv) security – the level of openness of the metabolic pattern (the extent of externalization of socio-economic and environmental pressures to other countries and ecosystems through imports). To achieve this result, MuSIASEM uses a complexity frame of reference. Starting out from the principles of bioeconomics of Geoergescu-Roegen, it elaborates the concept of metabolic pattern of social-ecological systems to explore the impredicative relations over the characteristics of structural and functional elements across scales and dimensions. Using relational analysis and integrating three different accounting metrics, the analytical toolkit generates a rich information space describing the impredicative entanglement of different attributes of performance across dimensions and scales. Rather than making predictions, MuSIASEM explores the option space of plausible changes based on a series of “what if” questions. This quantitative accounting framework can be applied in diagnostic mode, to identify critical sustainability issues, and in anticipation mode, to identify implausible policies. MuSIASEM thus provides a flexible decision support for multi-level governance while guaranteeing the transparency of the choices made by the analyst.

This paper explores the implications of the widespread success of the term circular economy in the institutional and public debate. The concept of circular economy in itself implies a logical contradiction: on the one hand, the concept acknowledges the dependence of the economy on biophysical flows; on the other hand, the proposed solution—a business model guaranteeing a full decoupling of the economy from natural resources—seemingly ignores that biophysical processes are subject to thermodynamic constraints. A biophysical view of the sustainability predicament—the flows exchanged between the technosphere and the biosphere — is depicted to show that the idea of a full decoupling is simply due to ignorance of the knowledge generated in (inter)disciplinary scientific fields other than the dominant economic one. The success of economics as an ‘elite folk science’ is explained by the need of the establishment to ignore uncomfortable knowledge that would destabilize existing institutions. The success of the term circular economy can be seen as an example of socially constructed ignorance in which folk tales are used to depoliticize the sustainability debate and to colonize the future through the endorsement of implausible socio-technical imaginaries. A strategy that can lead to an irresponsible management of expectation: implausible master narratives are impossible to govern. Rather than continuing to impose technocratic plans, as if we knew the optimal thing to do, Post-Normal Science suggests that it is much more effective and responsible to adopt a flexible management approach, exploring the ability of self-organization of social-ecological systems.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M We implemented the semantically open conceptual framework 'Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism' (MuSIASEM) to deal with nexus challenges in agricultural production systems in transboundary river basins, using the Iranian Aras River Basin as a case study. The performance of the agricultural sector was characterized for relevant typologies of crop production using metabolic profiles, i.e., inputs and outputs per ton of crop produced, per hectare of land use, and per hour of labor. This analysis was contextualized across hierarchical levels of analysis, including the agronomic context at the regional level (rainfed versus irrigated cultivation), the socio-economic and political context at the national level (food sovereignty; urbanization), and the hydro-ecological context of the larger transboundary river basin (water constraints, GHG emissions). We found that the simultaneous use of two different interrelated logics of aggregation-the productivity of land and labor (relevant for the agronomic and socio-economic dimension) and the density of flows under different land uses (relevant for the hydrological and ecological dimension)-allowed for the identification of trade-offs in policy deliberations. In the case of Iran, it showed that striving for strategic autonomy will exacerbate the current water crisis; with the current cropping patterns, agronomic improvements will not suffice to avert a water crisis. It was concluded that the proposed approach fills an important gap in nexus research, but to effectively guide nexus governance in the region, a co-production of the analysis with social actors as well as more complete data sets at the river basin level would be essential.

Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M Despite the concerted efforts of the scientific community and politicians to contain greenhouse gas emissions, the CO level in the atmosphere continues to increase monotonically. This raises the question whether the scientific representations and related knowledge claims used to inform energy policy have been incomplete or incorrect. Are there alternative relevant knowledge claims that have been overlooked or ignored in the discussion of energy policies and if so, why? We answer these questions by elaborating three case studies, energy efficiency improvements, liquid biofuels, and decarbonization of electricity, and using a novel procedure for quality checking policy narratives that is based in post-normal science and developed in the EU project Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: Informing NEXUS Security (MAGIC). The focus of our approach is on the coherence of the why (concerns or justifications), what ("solution"), and how ("scientific evidence") of energy policies. We show that for all cases studied alternative knowledge claims, mostly derived from the relatively new field of non-equilibrium thermodynamics, would be available for better informing energy policy, but that they are unknown knowns in the chosen framing of the issues. We conclude that the idea that the various concerns identified in EU energy policy can be solved simultaneously is unrealistic. This idea can only persist by virtue of banishing uncomfortable knowledge and the creation of implausible socio-technical imaginaries. When considering different aspects of the problem and integrating different narratives and knowledge claims, a smooth and painless transition to a zero-carbon economy seems unlikely.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M The paper presents insights from carrying out a pan-EU sustainability assessment using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data (the old wine) with societal metabolism accounting (SMA) processes (the new bottles). The SMA was deployed as part of a transdisciplinary study with EU policy stakeholders of how EU policy may need to change to deliver sustainability commitments, particularly to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The paper outlines the concepts underlying SMA and its specific implementation using the FADN data. A key focus was on the interactions between crop and livestock systems and how this determines imported feedstuffs requirements, with environmental and other footprints beyond the EU. Examples of agricultural production systems performance are presented in terms of financial/efficiency, resource use (particularly the water footprint) and quantifies potential pressures on the environment. Benefits and limitations of the FADN dataset and the SMA outputs are discussed, highlighting the challenges of linking quantified pressures with environmental impacts. The paper concludes that the complexity of agriculture's interactions with economy and society means there is great need for conceptual frameworks, such as SMA, that can take multiple, non-equivalent, perspectives and that can be deployed with policy stakeholders despite generating uncomfortable knowledge.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB We show that shortage of human activity may represent an internal constraint to economic growth as relevant as external resource and sink constraints. Human time is required, both inside and outside the market, to produce and consume the goods and services needed to sustain societal metabolism. The time allocation profile is therefore an emergent property of the societal metabolic pattern. When most time is invested in services and final consumption rather than supplying the inputs required by the metabolic process, further growth is constrained. This problem may be temporarily overcome by three strategies: (i) increasing capital investment to boost labor productivity in the productive sectors; (ii) externalizing the requirement of working hours through imports of goods and services; (iii) importing economically active population through immigration. Each strategy is illustrated with an empirical example: (i) a comparison of the evolution of the profile of time and capital allocation between China and the EU;(ii) an assessment of the labor hours embodied in EU imports; (iii) an analysis of demographic changes in response to immigration in Spain. While these strategies can temporarily overcome constraints to economic growth at the national level, they do not represent a long-term solution at the global level.

Electric vehicles are a dominant policy solution in the EU. In policy documents, a transition to electric vehicles is justified through promises of a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and oil imports, as well as positive impacts on citizens (through reduced pollution) and the economy (through a boost in manufacturing and the generation of jobs). The evidence supporting such claims remains uncertain. Taking a stance that is grounded in complexity science, we introduce a hierarchical mapping of policy mechanisms, concerns and solutions – the elements making up policy narratives. Building on this mapping, we focus on questioning the solution-justification relationship for electric vehicles, by critically inspecting the material coherence between these justifications and the existing existing evidence. A targeted review shows how, for example, positive economic impacts largely depend on the location of battery and car manufacturing; or GHG emission reductions depend on promises of decarbonisation of the electricity sector, as well as on driving behaviours. Innovations are not just material objects, and such evidence does not necessarily weaken the dominant policy solution, nor the socio-technical imaginary it is grounded in. By questioning the material coherence of EV justification narratives in the EU, this case study points to a discussion about the effects of dominant policy narratives on the generation of science, warning against policy-based evidence in the co-creation of socio-technical imaginaries. LINK TO PUBLISHED ARTICLE:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.05.002

Biofuels represent a complex issue in the sustainability discourse as they require the simultaneous consideration of different dimensions and scales of analysis. This situation explains the co-existence of contrasting ‘scientific evidence’ about their performance. This paper presents a novel conceptual framework that integrates four key aspects of the performance of biofuels: (1) the social factors determining thedesirabilityof biofuel use on the demand side – why do we want to produce biofuels?; (2) the internal technical and economic constraints affecting the viability of their mode of production on the supply side – how can we produce biofuels?; (3) the external biophysical constraints limiting thefeasibilityof their production – what are the material limits imposed by the availability of natural resources?; (4) the level of openness of the biofuel system referring to the imports used to overcome local limits – the level of externalization of the requirement of natural resources and technical production factors reducing energy security. The proposed framework generates a biophysical characterization of the supply function of a biofuel system (which inputs are needed to generate the supply) contextualized against a biophysical characterization of the societal demand (what inputs the society is ready to invest in the energy system in order to obtain the supply).

This paper combines an interdisciplinary set of concepts and ideas to explore the interface between complexity science and biosemiotics and to describe the processes of generation of meaning and preservation of identity in complex adaptive systems. The concepts and ideas used include: (i) holons (from hierarchy theory); (ii) the state-pressure relation (from non-equilibrium thermodynamics); (iii) the four Aristotelean causes (as used in relational biology); and (iv) upward and downward causation. Further insights from other disciplines, including biosemiotics, cybernetics, codepoiesis, theoretical ecology, energetics, and bioeconomics, are also borrowed to explore the mechanisms underlying the organizational unity of the various processes leading to a resonance between the tangible and notional definitions of identity. An original set of criteria, to be used for the characterization of this organizational unity, is then put forward: Learning Instances Producing Holarchic Essences: Expected, Established, and Experienced (LIPHE4). The LIPHE4 criteria help explain how complex adaptive systems can remain the same (preserve their identity) while becoming something else (evolve) and succeed even while implementing imperfect models to guide action.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552 From a biophysical perspective, energy is central to the behaviour of social-ecological systems. Its ubiquity means that energy is entangled with nexus elements, including water, land, emissions and labour. At the science-policy interface, large market-oriented energy models dominate as the tool to inform decision-making. The outputs of these models are used to shape policies, but strongly depend on sets of assumptions that are not available for deliberation and gloss over uncertainties. Taking an approach from complexity, we propose an alternative to market-oriented energy models, describing the behaviour of energy systems in relation to patterns of nexus elements across hierarchical levels. Three characteristics are central to the approach: (i) the distinction of the model's building blocks into functional and structural elements; (ii) their hierarchical organisation and (iii) the description of nexus patterns at each level, through the tool of the processor. To illustrate the model, it is applied to Catalonia's energy sector, linking production and consumption patterns. The framework may help inform stakeholder deliberation on pressing energy and nexus issues.

The term "Jevons Paradox” flags the need to consider the different hierarchical scales at which a system under analysis changes its identity in response to an innovation. Accordingly, an analysis of the implications of the Jevons Paradox must abandon the realm of reductionism and deal with the complexity inherent in the issue of sustainability: when studying evolution and real change how can we define “what has to be sustained” in a system that continuously becomes something else? In an attempt to address this question this paper presents three theoretical concepts foreign to conventional scientific analysis: (i) complex adaptive systems—to address the peculiar characteristics of learning and self-producing systems; (ii) holons and holarchy—to explain the implications of the ambiguity found when observing the relation between functional and structural elements across different scales (steady-state vs. evolution); and (iii) Holling's adaptive cycle—to illustrate the existence of different phases in the evolutionary trajectory of a complex adaptive system interacting with its context in which either external or internal constraints can become limiting. These concepts are used to explain systemic drivers of the Jevons Paradox. Looking at society's thermodynamic foundations, sustainability is based on a dynamic balance of two contrasting principles regulating the evolution of complex adaptive systems: the minimum entropy production and the maximum energy flux. The co-existence of these two principles explains why in different situations innovation has to play a different role in the “sustainable development” of society: (i) when society is not subject to external biophysical constraints improvements in efficiency serve to increase the final consumption of society and expand its diversity of functions and structures; (ii) when the expansion of society is limited by external constraints improvements in efficiency should be used to avoid as much as possible the loss of the existing diversity. It is concluded that sustainability cannot be achieved by technological innovations alone, but requires a continuous process of institutional and behavioral adjustment.

El consum d’energia fòssil és a la base del funcionament de la nostra societat. Tanmateix, molts científics es mostren escèptics sobre la possibilitat de conservar aquest estil de vida en un context que necessàriament haurà de reduir dràsticament el ritme actual de consum d’energia fòssil. En un futur més proper del que sembla, haurà de canviar el sistema d’alimentació, els transports, la producció de béns i la manera de viure de les persones.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB This article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6-26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M Salmon aquaculture is a growing industry with increasing challenges of feed sustainability and availability. This global sustainability issue has led to calls for novel feeds. Aquafly, a Norwegian research project, has performed small-scale tests using the black soldier fly as an ingredient in salmon diet. However, in order for insect feeds to become a reality on the industrial scale, workable scientific, technical and political solutions have to be envisioned in tandem. In this study, we studied, elicited and assessed sociotechnical imaginaries in the Aquafly research consortium, using the approaches of concomitant ELSA research, the Ethical Matrix and Quantitative Story-Telling. We show how the sociotechnical imaginaries develop together with the scientific trajectory of the project, and how this also affects the assessment of the ethical and environmental impacts of the technology, including issues of food and feed safety and security, fish health and welfare, pollution and efficient use of waste streams. We show how there are intrinsic challenges when dealing with global sustainability issues in the research project. For instance, overcoming the problem of salmon feed scarcity may aggravate the challenges caused by intensive aquaculture. We report the results of a Quantitative Story-Telling exercise that indicates that Aquafly can be seen as part of a larger economy of technological promise, and discuss if and how this critique can be employed and integrated into scientific and technical imagination in a research project, contributing to Responsible Research and Innovation.

Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M The absence of sound sampling procedures and statistical analyses to estimate solid waste generation in many developing countries has resulted in incomplete historical records of waste quantity and composition. Data is often arbitrarily aggregated or disaggregated as a function of waste generators to obtain results at the desired spatial level of analysis. Inference fallacies arising from the generalization or individualization of results are almost never considered. In this paper, Panama, one of the fastest-growing developing countries, was used as a case-study to review the main methodological approaches to estimate solid waste generation per capita per day, and at different hierarchical levels (from households to the country). The solid waste generation intensity indicator is used by the Panamanian waste management authority to run the waste management system. It was also the main parameter employed by local and foreign companies to estimate solid waste generation in Panama between 2001 and 2008. The methodological approaches used by these companies were mathematically formalized and classified as per the expressions suggested by Subramanian et al. (2009). Seven inference fallacies (ecological, individualistic, stage, floating population, linear forecasting, average population and mixed spatial levels) were identified and allocated to the studies. Foreign companies committed three of the seven inference fallacies, while one was committed by the local entity. Endogenous knowledge played an important role in these studies to avoid spatial levels mismatch and multilevel measurements appear to produce more reliable information than studies obtained via other means.

In Part 1 of this paper, the metabolic nature of social-economic systems is explored. A general understanding relating the various constituent components of social-economic systems in a relational network is presented and used to posit that social-economic systems are metabolic-repair (M, R) systems of the type explored in relational biology. It is argued that, through modernization and globalization, social-economic systems are losing certain functional entailment relations and their ability to control replication. It is further argued that modern social-economic systems are losing control over their identity. In Part 2, the implications of those realizations are explored in terms of effective accounting methodology and a practical set of methods capable of harnessing the deep complexity of social-economic systems. In terms of methods, a practical set of metrics defined through the lenses of a macroscope, a mesoscope, and a microscope is presented. Intended to be used simultaneously, the various descriptive domains suggested by our three scopes may be useful for decision-makers who wish to make responsible decisions concerning the control of system identity change or to combat processes of societal cyborgization.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552 While a large number of descriptive studies have delineated the interlinkages between water, food and energy resources in the last decade, there is still need for systematic conceptualization of resource nexus interconnections. This paper proposes a theory of relational analysis of the nexus based on the analytical concept of nexus networks. A taxonomy of nexus interconnections, detailing sequential and hierarchical connections, is characterized between and amongst the technosphere and biosphere. We illustrate the use of a novel diagnostic tool with regard to its ability to integrate macro-, meso- and microscale drivers of nexus problems. We apply this framework to problems generated by intensive crop production for exportation in an arid landscape (driven by external markets) and sustainable management of water resources (driven by public policies) in a southern Spanish region. We elucidate interconnected causal mechanisms for groundwater overexploitation and profile different social-ecological patterns on a spatially-explicit basis. The proposed approach is capable of accounting for the water-energy-food resource nexus in an integrated and multi-level fashion, addressing the tensions generated by both multi-functionality and resource entanglement in complex social-ecological systems.

Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M Residential end-uses represent a significant share of final energy consumption and material stocks. However, approaching sustainability of the residential sector merely as an environmental technical problem is insufficient. Home is the center of daily life providing essential functions to people. Household metabolism is not a matter of the sum of individual behaviors, typologies of buildings, or energy uses stripped out of context, but the system that emerges from the historical combination of these elements and the functions it performs. The residential sector comprises both families (units of organized individuals) and dwellings (within municipalities/urban forms). To analyze these dynamics, we draw upon practice theory and Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) illustrating with data from Sweden and Spain in 2015. The objective is to establish an interdisciplinary framework for analyzing the sustainability of the residential sector. We also present a list of possible measures and their trade-offs in diverse dimensions: energy carrier consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, materials, floor area, human activity, social organization and institutions, finance and desirability. Even though the inclusion of all variables in a single model is not feasible, the holistic understanding of household metabolism can help build coherent anticipation scenarios by selecting plausible hypotheses. Ultimately, this allows making profound transformations to sustainability.

In the European Union, national-scope efforts to protect local ecosystem services are greatly helped by the externalization of agricultural production. Domestic environmental pressures such as pesticide residue, fertilizer leakage and waterbody overdraft would all significantly increase if European agricultural production were to be re-localized. Those increases would add additional stress on local habitats, soils and freshwater reserves. This work addresses such concerns by anticipating pressure increases associated with a near-complete re-internalization of agricultural production in the European Union. Our results could prove relevant in the event of an end of the era of cheap food imports, or when considering the plausibility of economic circularization efforts (such as suggested by the European Green Deal). Rather than produce quantitative results determined by a given set of supposedly uncontested pre-analytical assumptions, this work presents an innovative approach to scientific representation capable of accommodating several possible results driven by contradictory yet equally legitimate insights. According to our characterization of the option space, which builds on current trade profiles and assumes business as usual change in technical coefficients, a near-complete re-internalization of agricultural production by European Union member states is not environmentally feasible. In relation to social viability, the required changes in social practices would include a significant increase in the share of agricultural workers in the economy and important dietary adjustments.

In the modern world, we never eat alone. Each bite we take is accompanied by another form of consumption: the energy and materials devoured by the machines and technology that sustain our economy.

In addressing pandemics, science has never seemed more needed and useful, while at the same time limited and powerless. The existing contract between science and society is falling apart. A new covenant is urgently needed to navigate the days ahead.

Small islands are vulnerable to climate change, and at the same time contribute to local and global environmental problems with the intensification of tourist activities. Whereas there are many studies on the resource requirements or environmental impacts of small islands, there are few efforts to integrate information that is often analysed separately. Metabolic analysis, beyond quantifying biophysical flows, studies how society transforms these flows to reproduce the identity of the whole. This study applies the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach, to analyse the environmental and economic performance of different economic activities in the Mediterranean island of Menorca (Spain). The openness of the metabolic system (observed in the dependence on imports) and externalization of environmental impact are illustrated using the examples of the cheese and tourist industry. The results show that a higher economic performance in terms of value added is associated with activities in industry and services with a larger dependence on imports of "external resources" - fuel for transportation, milk for cheese, seasonal workers and "paying capacity" of tourists. This dependence reduces local environmental pressures and also adaptation capacity, since decisions made in Menorca may have limited impact elsewhere. Local agriculture depends less on external resources but it is limited by the low economic productivity of land and labour. An integrated analysis of the relations between metabolic rates and densities of flows in the different compartments of the society provides a holistic picture of sustainability issues and can contribute to decision-making by avoiding partial information.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M The strategy of energy efficiency to save energy is deceptively simple: the idea is to use less input for the highest amount of useful output. However, on a practical and conceptual level, efficiency is an ambiguous and problematic concept to implement. Of particular concern is the lack of contextual and qualitative information provided in energy efficiency measurements based on simple ratios. Oversimplification of efficiency measurements can have a detrimental effect on the choice of energy policies. Efficiency measurements are particularly problematic on a macroeconomic scale where a significant amount of meaningful information is lost through the aggregation of data into a simple ratio (economic energy intensity). First, practical examples are presented flagging conceptual problems with energy efficiency indicators, then an alternative accounting method-the end-use matrix-based on the concept of the metabolic pattern of social-ecological systems is illustrated to show the possibility of enriching efficiency indicators by adding qualitative and contextual information across multiple scales and dimensions. This method unpacks and structures salient energy input and output information in a meaningful and transparent way by generating a rich multi-level and multi-dimensional information space.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M How to tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in integrated assessment for sustainability? To what extent does the choice of the methodology condition the narrative produced by the analysis? The present work argues that the two questions are tightly coupled. The technique is never neutral. If we are the tools of our tools, as suggested by Thoreau, then it can also be said that language is not only a vehicle for communication, it is the driver as well. For this reason, in sustainability assessment it is not unusual to discern a close relationship between arguments made and methods adopted. In the present work a set of six reflexive analytical tools - we call them lenses - is suggested which could be pooled to the effect to appraise and improve the quality of integrated assessment and the resulting sustainability narratives, and to alleviate the constraints of the method-argument dependency. None of the lenses is new and each has been used before. Never have they been used together. The lenses are (i) Post-normal science (PNS), (ii) Controversy studies, (iii) Sensitivity auditing, (iv) Bioeconomics, (v) Ethics of science for governance, and (vi) Non-Ricardian economics. The six lenses are illustrated together with a set of case/narratives/arguments. The lenses allow some narratives - or methodologies - to be shown as either implausible or inadequate, and new narratives to be developed to tackle pressing sustainability issues, which expand the horizon of possible strategies for a solution.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M The steady increase in production volume of salmon aquaculture has sharpened concerns about its sustainability. In particular the production of salmon feed is a reason for concern given its reliance on scarce natural resources, such as wild fish captures. Multi-scale integrated analysis is put forward as a tool to anticipate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of large-scale implementation of alternative salmon feeds, considering both plant and insect sources as potential replacements of fish meal and fish oil. The proposed accounting framework, based on relational analysis across hierarchical levels, describes the patterns of required inputs using biophysical and economic variables. It also considers the inputs used by external systems for the production of imported feed, thus providing a coherent assessment of the sustainability of the production system in terms of feasibility, viability, and desirability. The analytical tool-kit is illustrated in conceptual terms and then applied to the Norwegian salmon aquaculture, both in diagnostic (describing the actual situation) and anticipatory mode (examining feed scenarios). Results are used in an exercise of quantitative story-telling to check the quality of the narratives currently shaping policy discussions on aquaculture. Quantitative story-telling is a heuristic approach aimed at checking the robustness of knowledge claims in face of uncertainty. It is concluded that rearing insects in the salmon feed production chain enlarges the option space of feed sources by opening up the possibility of using locally-produced seaweed and organic waste, but also raises the level of uncertainty with regard to the possible insurgence of negative side effects.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M Developing economies largely rely on imported consumer goods from the manufacturing industries of industrialized economies through free-trade agreements. After consumption, goods end-up in local waste streams and landfilled because of poorly developed waste management systems. This paper proposes a methodology to extend responsibility to exporting country manufacturers for indirect waste disposal in developing countries through imported goods. It establishes a functional relationship between the weight and volume of the imported goods and the local municipal solid waste stream derived from their consumption, by adapting the recycling concepts of by-product and co-product to the municipal solid waste stream derived from the household sector. A lexicon is formalized to conceptualize an extended-producer-responsibility information system operating at the global level between exporting and importing countries. This EPR system i) determines the recyclability, reusability and treatability attributes of imported goods based on their constitutive parts (primary package or product), as well as the material value as per the net value in the global waste market and final destination once consumed, ii) defines specific conditions regarding the goods' materials value and structural configuration of their constitutive parts for inclusion in Free-Trade Agreement clauses, and iii) checks for the fulfilment of these proposed conditions. The proposed methodology was validated with a case study on Panama. It was found that 24%(w/w)-34.5%(v/v) of valued materials derived from goods imported in Panama through FTAs could be exported back to the country of origin, 18%(w/w)-2.8%(v/v) could be locally reused, and 58%(w/w)-62.5%(v/v) locally valorized. Only 16% (w/w)-16%(v/v) would have to be landfilled.

Considering the existing world population, set of environmental impacts, and predicted changes in dietary trends, one can expect that, in the coming decades, food security will remain high on the list of sustainability concerns. In relation to this challenge, Europe's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) must address a diverse set of goals: (i) guarantee a stable and affordable food supply; (ii) preserve the socioeconomic stability of farmers by guaranteeing their economic viability; (iii) protect the environment by reducing pressures on agroecosystems; and (iv) improve food security by reducing import dependence. Policies related to these diverse goals are likely to generate adverse side-effects. A particularly uncomfortable concern is Europe's massive reliance on imported feed commodities. The European Union (EU) is unlikely to be capable of domestically producing currently imported agricultural commodities and a significant move to internalize imports would dramatically increase pressures on local ecosystems. Faced with that potential predicament, it is essential to have a robust information system capable of simultaneously addressing a variety of policy concerns. In response, this paper presents a novel accounting framework—Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM)—capable of generating an integrated set of indicators entangled across different scales and dimensions of analysis. Our versatile approach establishes a set of quantitative relations between: (i) the dietary intake of the society (desirability of the food supply); (ii) processes under human control (viability of the food system); (iii) processes outside of human control and associated with external biophysical limits determined by embedding ecosystems (feasibility of the food system); and (iv) the dependence on imported products (food security). The analysis of such relations can be tailored to the legitimate perceptions of different social actors affected by policies, anticipating potential conflicts and providing useful information for deliberation and negotiation. Our approach is illustrated with an analysis of the European agricultural system, covering the EU-27 plus the UK and Norway.

Sociotechnical imaginaries are visions of desired social and technological futures created and sustained by stakeholders in science, industry and politics. Within the dominating innovation narratives there are a number of implicit and explicit beliefs that are both descriptive and normative. Technological optimism is the prevailing discourse, challenged by alternative imaginaries, among them a narrative of degrowth. In this paper we argue for the importance of producing more democratic and sustainable imaginations of future social and technological trajectories. We indicate how new narratives for innovation may include different perspectives and sources of knowledge, including heterodox economics, bio-economics, science and technology studies, and Post-Normal Science. The replacement of policy narratives, however, is not achieved through science speaking truth to power. If that were the case, policies would have changed a long time ago. The present analysis and discussion illustrates how the challenge of replacement is itself one that calls for a reflexive understanding of the relationship between knowledge, belief and agency in complex research and innovation (R&I) systems.

This paper assesses the conceptualizations and analytical uses of complexity. Throughout the paper, we carefully eschew ontological issues, and sort out the epistemology of complexity. We try to explain why the ontology of complexity makes no sense to us, much like significance is neither material nor ontological. Our tool of choice is levels of analysis. First, we analyze the conceptualization of complexity. Much discussion of complexity is confused because complexity is mistaken as a material issue. Complexity arises from the way the situation is addressed, and is not material in itself. Even so, complexity does seem to have material ramifications without being itself a straightforward material distinction. We use an illustrative parallel example where genetic dominance is shown not to be material while having material consequences, but only after a gene is asserted to be dominant on normative criteria. Secondly, the paper compares two analytical approaches based on complexity, namely Robert Rosen’s work and Joseph Tainter’s work. In Rosennean complexity a system is complex if not all its constituent models are simulable, if certainty is denied. In that sense, complexity cannot be defined. Rosen’s distinction is between simple and complex systems makes complexity an all or nothing proposition. Complexification is seen by Tainter as a device used by societies to solve their problems. This leads to complexity being a matter of degree in successive societal complexifications, perhaps from Neolithic hunter-gatherers to industrial societies.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552 Altres ajuts: CONACYT/SENER/409781 This paper describes a novel tool-kit to analyze energy systems in relation to the bio-economic and environmental performance of society. It is illustrated with data from the oil and gas sector of Mexico. The approach combines relational analysis (as developed in theoretical biology) and Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM). It integrates two non-equivalent views of the functioning of the oil and gas system starting from the identification and description of the relations between functional and structural elements. The metabolic pattern of the energy system is described as a sequential pathway generated by different functional elements (e.g., extraction, refining, transportation), each of which is made up of different structural elements (e.g., plants adopting different extraction techniques, diverse types of refineries, different methods of transportation), and operating at a given level of openness (imports and exports). The relations found over the elements of the energy system are described both in functional terms (what/why) and in spatial terms (where/how). The policy relevance of the information generated is discussed in relation to the Mexican Energy Reform.

Recent years have seen a steep rise in the interest in nutrient circularity. In the context of food systems and waste management, nutrient circularity seems to generally encompass the reduction of nutrient losses and increased recovery of nutrients from various organic residual streams for reuse in agricultural production. Many studies that aim to contribute to improving nutrient circularity in food systems have limited the analysis to a given geographical area. But nutrient circularity likely looks different when the analysis includes what happens outside the borders of the considered area. This paper presents and discusses an analytical framework that allows for the analysis of nutrient circularity not only inside a given geographical area being considered, but also in those parts of the global food system with which the local food system interacts in terms of feed and food trade. This framework explicitly characterizes the impact of system openness associated with feed and food trade. This enables: (i) a separate discussion of four possible interpretations of nutrient circularity – internal and external input and output circularity; and (ii) an analysis of how these four circularity indicators relate to one another depending on system openness. The proposed analysis can thus reveal the extent to which a high level of nutrient circularity in the considered area comes at the cost of a decreased level of nutrient circularity in the places with which feed and food are traded, or vice versa.

Purpose This paper aims to present a new master’s programme for promoting energy access and energy efficiency in Southern Africa. Design/methodology/approach A transdisciplinary approach called “participatory integrated assessment of energy systems” (PARTICIPIA) was used for the development of the curriculum. This approach is based on the two emerging fields of “multi-scale integrated assessment” and “science for governance”, which bring innovative concepts and methods. Findings The application of the PARTICIPIA methodology to three case studies reveals that the proposed transdisciplinary approach could support energy and development policies in the region. The implementation of the PARTICIPIA curriculum in three higher education institutions reveals its ability to respond to the needs of specific contexts and its connection with existing higher education programmes. Practical implications Considering energy issues from a transdisciplinary approach in higher education is absolutely critical because such a holistic view cannot be achieved through engineering curricula. Deliberate and greater efforts should be made to integrate methods from “multi-scale integrated assessment” and “science for governance” in higher education curricula to train a new breed of modern-day energy planners in charge of coming up with solutions that are shared by all relevant stakeholders. Originality/value This paper presents an innovative higher education curriculum in terms of the attention given to energy access and energy efficiency that affect the southern Africa region and the nature of the methodology adopted to face these issues.

Naples has experienced serious waste mismanagement during the last several decades. Illegal waste trafficking, the lack of an appropriate municipal solid waste management plan, and the subsidizing of energy generation from indiscriminate waste incineration generated social unrest and an unremitting paralysis of waste services throughout much of the late 1990s and early 2000s. The waste situation in Naples is a “hot spot” that cannot be simply described or explained by theoretical and linear models or analyses based on conventional waste indicators. A novel approach for the assessment of urban solid waste management system performance is proposed to overcome the limitations of conventional methods. When dealing with the production and use of scientific information for governance, scientists, especially those used to just “crunch numbers” have a serious problems in providing a useful input to the process of decision making. This paper presents a method useful for organizing a process of production and use of scientific information in which both scientists and the other social actors can have a bidirectional and constructive exchange of information. The goal of this method is to guarantee the quality of the process of generation and use of quantitative science to generate informed deliberations about policies over Municipal Solid Waste Management. The proposed approach builds on metabolic network theory and multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM). The current metabolic pattern of municipal solid waste in the Metropolitan Area of Naples is described and quantified across hierarchical scales and dimensions. The analysis shows that the current Neapolitan waste management system is characterized by an elevated share (60%) of waste treated outside of the metropolitan ambit, and a low rate of separate collection (37%). Simulation of (i) metropolitan self-sufficiency of urban waste final disposal, and (ii) increased recycling rate show, respectively (i) an increase in both financial burden and local environmental impact; (ii) a lessening of the local environmental impact and an increase of running costs and higher need of local waste processing capacity.

As informal urban settlements grow in size and population across the developing world, the issue of how to design and implement effective policies to provide for the needs and the aspirations of dwellers becomes ever more pressing. This paper addresses the challenge of how to characterise in quantitative terms the complex and fast-changing phenomenon of informal urban settlements without falling into oversimplification and a narrow focus on the material deficits of informal settlements. Energy policies are taken as an example to illustrate the shortcomings of oversimplification in producing policy relevant information. We adopt a semantically open representation of informal settlements that can capture the diversity of adaptive strategies used by different settlement typologies, based on the societal metabolism approach. Results show that as settlements grow in size and complexity, they remain economically and politically marginalised and fail to integrate into the city. We argue that in the case of energy policy, the analysis must go beyond the definition of problems such as access to energy at the level of the individual, and focus on a multi-scale assessment including the household and community levels studying the capacity of the household to increase it energy throughput through exosomatic devices and infrastructure.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M This paper presents an innovative approach to the responsible use of quantitative analysis when dealing with the governance of sustainability. Rather than using complicated models which try to predict and control the future evolution of complex adaptive systems, quantitative story-telling is proposed to check, first of all, the plausibility of proposed policies. As a case study, we check the plausibility of 'a radical decarbonization of the European economy based on a quick deployment of alternative sources of electrical energy generation'. Although our case study includes a high-level set of quantitative results, it is primarily methodological. The procedure of quantitative story-telling includes: (1) identification of the narratives used to inform policy; (2) identification of the relevant factors determining the feasibility, viability and desirability of expected results; (3) a quantitative analysis which falsifies at least one of these three factors, indicating an implausibility of the expected results; and (4) identification of knowledge gaps in the existing discussions over the issue. The modern European energy system does need an urgent and radical transformation. However, before imposing drastic and ambitious policies, it is essential to check the quality of the diagnosis. Our analysis flags the existence of a few reasons for concern with regard to the current story-telling.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M Existing studies have studied influencing factors of MSW generation behaviour at different spatial levels of organization, but always one at a time and not simultaneously. Income is a strong influencing factor, affecting MSW generation from the individual to the country level, capable of hiding the effects of the others. This study shows that when MSW generation behaviour is holistically analysed across multiple levels of organization (individuals, households, and communities) hierarchically organized as functional units of MSW generation within a specific study area, it is possible to identify influencing factors in addition to income (education, demographic, health, ethnic, economic activity and financial types) as explanatory variables. Increasing the number of influencing factors of MSW generation makes it possible to create a robust knowledge base for MSW management policies in fast-growing urban areas of developing countries, improving the information used to select proper policies and plans within their MSW management systems and avoiding overlapping policies causing legal gaps. Betania, an urban area of the Panama City district, has been chosen as a case study area. The results show that the household income explains 86% of its memberś MSW generation and the community indigenous population explains 21% of householdś MSW generation. It is concluded that MSW generation is not linear across levels, it has as many degrees of freedom as influencing factors shaping the levels of organization where functional units generating waste exist. Influencing factors appearing at each spatial level affects MSW generation in an interdependent manner in variable degrees of magnitude.