Search

With growing concerns that big data will only augment the problem of unreliable research, the Laboratory of Computational Physiology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology organized the Critical Data Conference in January 2014. Thought leaders from academia, government, and industry across disciplines—including clinical medicine, computer science, public health, informatics, biomedical research, health technology, statistics, and epidemiology—gathered and discussed the pitfalls and challenges of big data in health care. The key message from the conference is that the value of large amounts of data hinges on the ability of researchers to share data, methodologies, and findings in an open setting. If empirical value is to be from the analysis of retrospective data, groups must continuously work together on similar problems to create more effective peer review. This will lead to improvement in methodology and quality, with each iteration of analysis resulting in more reliability.

Cardiovascular variables such as heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP) are regulated by an underlying control system, and therefore, the time series of these vital signs exhibit rich dynamical patterns of interaction in response to external perturbations (e.g., drug administration), as well as pathological states (e.g., onset of sepsis and hypotension). A question of interest is whether "similar" dynamical patterns can be identified across a heterogeneous patient cohort, and be used for prognosis of patients' health and progress. In this paper, we used a switching vector autoregressive framework to systematically learn and identify a collection of vital sign time series dynamics, which are possibly recurrent within the same patient and may be shared across the entire cohort. We show that these dynamical behaviors can be used to characterize the physiological "state" of a patient. We validate our technique using simulated time series of the cardiovascular system, and human recordings of HR and BP time series from an orthostatic stress study with known postural states. Using the HR and BP dynamics of an intensive care unit (ICU) cohort of over 450 patients from the MIMIC II database, we demonstrate that the discovered cardiovascular dynamics are significantly associated with hospital mortality (dynamic modes 3 and 9, p=0.001, p=0.006 from logistic regression after adjusting for the APACHE scores). Combining the dynamics of BP time series and SAPS-I or APACHE-III provided a more accurate assessment of patient survival/mortality in the hospital than using SAPS-I and APACHE-III alone (p=0.005 and p=0.045). Our results suggest that the discovered dynamics of vital sign time series may contain additional prognostic value beyond that of the baseline acuity measures, and can potentially be used as an independent predictor of outcomes in the ICU.

Background Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) is associated with a high risk of mortality among older patients. Current severity scores are limited in their ability to assist clinicians with triage and management decisions. We aim to develop mortality prediction models for older patients with MODS admitted to the ICU. Methods The study analyzed older patients from 197 hospitals in the United States and 1 hospital in the Netherlands. The cohort was divided into the young-old (65–80 years) and old-old (≥80 years), which were separately used to develop and evaluate models including internal, external, and temporal validation. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory measurements, and treatments were used as predictors. We used the XGBoost algorithm to train models, and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to interpret predictions. Results Thirty-four thousand four hundred and ninety-seven young-old (11.3% mortality) and 21 330 old-old (15.7% mortality) patients were analyzed. Discrimination AUROC of internal validation models in 9 046 U.S. patients was as follows: 0.87 and 0.82, respectively; discrimination of external validation models in 1 905 EUR patients was as follows: 0.86 and 0.85, respectively; and discrimination of temporal validation models in 8 690 U.S. patients: 0.85 and 0.78, respectively. These models outperformed standard clinical scores like Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Acute Physiology Score III. The Glasgow Coma Scale, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and Code Status emerged as top predictors of mortality. Conclusions Our models integrate data spanning physiologic and geriatric-relevant variables that outperform existing scores used in older adults with MODS, which represents a proof of concept of how machine learning can streamline data analysis for busy ICU clinicians to potentially optimize prognostication and decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The observation periods and thresholds of serum creatinine and urine output defined in the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria were not empirically derived. By continuously varying creatinine/urine output thresholds as well as the observation period, we sought to investigate the empirical relationships among creatinine, oliguria, in-hospital mortality, and receipt of renal replacement therapy (RRT). Methods Using a high-resolution database (Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II), we extracted data from 17,227 critically ill patients with an in-hospital mortality rate of 10.9 %. The 14,526 patients had urine output measurements. Various combinations of creatinine/urine output thresholds and observation periods were investigated by building multivariate logistic regression models for in-hospital mortality and RRT predictions. For creatinine, both absolute and percentage increases were analyzed. To visualize the dependence of adjusted mortality and RRT rate on creatinine, the urine output, and the observation period, we generated contour plots. Results Mortality risk was high when absolute creatinine increase was high regardless of the observation period, when percentage creatinine increase was high and the observation period was long, and when oliguria was sustained for a long period of time. Similar contour patterns emerged for RRT. The variability in predictive accuracy was small across different combinations of thresholds and observation periods. Conclusions The contour plots presented in this article complement the AKIN definition. A multi-center study should confirm the universal validity of the results presented in this article., Author(s): Tal Mandelbaum [sup.1] [sup.2], Joon Lee [sup.2] [sup.5], Daniel J. Scott [sup.2], Roger G. Mark [sup.2], Atul Malhotra [sup.3], Michael D. Howell [sup.4], Daniel Talmor [sup.1] Author Affiliations: (1) [...]

A clinical method for monitoring cardiac output (CO) should be continuous, minimally invasive, and accurate. However, none of the conventional CO measurement methods possess all of these characteristics. On the other hand, peripheral arterial blood pressure (ABP) may be measured reliably and continuously with little or no invasiveness. We have developed a novel technique for continuously monitoring changes in CO by mathematical analysis of a peripheral ABP waveform. In contrast to the previous techniques, our technique analyzes the ABP waveform over time scales greater than a cardiac cycle in which the confounding effects of complex wave reflections are attenuated. The technique specifically analyzes 6-min intervals of ABP to estimate the pure exponential pressure decay that would eventually result if pulsatile activity abruptly ceased (i.e., after the high frequency wave reflections vanish). The technique then determines the time constant of this exponential decay, which equals the product of the total peripheral resistance and the nearly constant arterial compliance, and computes proportional CO via Ohm's law. To validate the technique, we performed six acute swine experiments in which peripheral ABP waveforms and aortic flow probe CO were simultaneously measured over a wide physiologic range. We report an overall CO error of 14.6%. Index Terms--Arterial blood pressure, arterial tree, cardiac output, distributed effects, hemodynamics, mathematical modeling, pulse contour analysis, system identification, wave reflections, Windkessel.

This work studies the frequency behavior of a least-square method to estimate the power spectral density of unevenly sampled signals. When the uneven sampling can be modeled as uniform sampling plus a stationary random deviation, this spectrum results in a periodic repetition of the original continuous time spectrum at the mean Nyquist frequency, with a low-pass effect affecting upper frequency bands that depends on the sampling dispersion. If the dispersion is small compared with the mean sampling period, the estimation at the base band is unbiased with practically no dispersion. When uneven sampling is modeled by a deterministic sinusoidal variation respect to the uniform sampling the obtained results are in agreement with those obtained for small random deviation. This approximation is usually well satisfied in signals like heart rate (HR) series. The theoretically predicted performance has been tested and corroborated with simulated and real HR signals. The Lomb method has been compared with the classical power spectral density (PSD) estimators that include resampling to get uniform sampling. We have found that the Lomb method avoids the major problem of classical methods: the low-pass effect of the resampling. Also only frequencies up to the mean Nyquist frequency should be considered (lower than 0.5 Hz if the HR is lower than 60 bpm). We conclude that for PSD estimation of unevenly sampled signals the Lomb method is more suitable than fast Fourier transform or autoregressive estimate with linear or cubic interpolation. In extreme situations (low-HR or high-frequency components) the Lomb estimate still introduces high-frequency contamination that suggest further studies of superior performance interpolators. In the case of HR signals we have also marked the convenience of selecting a stationary heart rate period to carry out a heart rate variability analysis. Index Terms - Heart rate variability (HRV), power spectral density (PSD) estimation of unevenly sampled signals, PSD estimate by least squared analysis.