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Task Group 115 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection is focusing on mission-related exposures to space radiation and concomitant health risks for space crew members including, among others, risk of cancer development. Uncertainties in cumulative radiation risk estimates come from the stochastic nature of the considered health outcome (i.e., cancer), uncertainties of statistical inference and model parameters, unknown secular trends used for projections of population statistics and unknown variability of survival properties between individuals or population groups. The variability of survival is usually ignored when dealing with large groups, which can be assumed well represented by the statistical data for the contemporary general population, either in a specific country or world averaged. Space crew members differ in many aspects from individuals represented by the general population, including, for example, their lifestyle and health status, nutrition, medical care, training and education. The individuality of response to radiation and lifespan is explored in this modelling study. Task Group 115 is currently evaluating applicability and robustness of various risk metrics for quantification of radiation-attributed risks of cancer for space crew members. This paper demonstrates the impact of interpopulation variability of survival curves on values and uncertainty of the estimates of the time-integrated radiation risk of cancer.

The Partner Agencies of the International Space Station (ISS) maintain separate career exposure limits and shared Flight Rules that control the ionising radiation exposures that crewmembers can experience due to ambient environments throughout their space missions. In low Earth orbit as well as further out in space, energetic ions referred to as galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) easily penetrate spacecraft and spacecraft contents and consequently are always present at low dose rates. Protons and electrons that are trapped in the Earth’s geomagnetic field are encountered intermittently, and a rare energetic solar particle event (SPE) may expose crew to (mostly) energetic protons. Space radiation protection goals are to optimize radiation exposures to maintain deleterious late effects at known and acceptable levels and to prevent any early effects that might compromise crew health and mission success. The conventional radiation protection metric effective dose provides a basic framework for limiting exposures associated with human spaceflight and can be communicated to all stakeholders. Additional metrics and uncertainty analyses are required to understand more completely and to convey nuanced information about potential impacts to an individual astronaut or to a space mission. Missions to remote destinations well beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO) are upcoming and bestow additional challenges that shape design and radiation protection needs. NASA has recently adopted a more permissive career exposure limit based upon effective dose and new restrictions on mission exposures imposed by nuclear technologies. This manuscript reviews the exposure limits that apply to the ISS crewmembers. This work was performed in collaboration with the advisory and guidance efforts of International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group 115 and will be summarized in an upcoming ICRP Report.

Abstract Space radiation consists of energetic protons and other heavier ions. During the International Space Station program, chromosome aberrations in lymphocytes of astronauts have been analyzed to estimate received biological doses of space radiation. More specifically, pre-flight blood samples were exposed ex vivo to varying doses of gamma rays, while post-flight blood samples were collected shortly and several months after landing. Here, in a study of 43 crew-missions, we investigated whether individual radiosensitivity, as determined by the ex vivo dose–response of the pre-flight chromosome aberration rate (CAR), contributes to the prediction of the post-flight CAR incurred from the radiation exposure during missions. Random-effects Poisson regression was used to estimate subject-specific radiosensitivities from the preflight dose–response data, which were in turn used to predict post-flight CAR and subject-specific relative biological effectiveness (RBEs) between space radiation and gamma radiation. Covariates age, gender were also considered. Results indicate that there is predictive value in background CAR as well as radiosensitivity determined preflight for explaining individual differences in post-flight CAR over and above that which could be explained by BFO dose alone. The in vivo RBE for space radiation was estimated to be approximately 3 relative to the ex vivo dose response to gamma irradiation. In addition, pre-flight radiosensitivity tended to be higher for individuals having a higher background CAR, suggesting that individuals with greater radiosensitivity can be more sensitive to other environmental stressors encountered in daily life. We also noted that both background CAR and radiosensitivity tend to increase with age, although both are highly variable. Finally, we observed no significant difference between the observed CAR shortly after mission and at > 6 months post-mission.